For our list of the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are bolded.

RESULTS! If we could predict the future, we'd be buying Lotto tickets instead...

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Enlarge Eric Kayne

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz on stage at the Redneck Country Club in Stafford, Texas on the evening of the Texas primary on Mar. 1, 2016.

Ted Cruz's presidential campaign announced Thursday it has won the support of eight former members of Jeb Bush's national finance committee. 

Bush, the former governor of Florida, dropped out of the Republican race last month, freeing up some donors in Cruz's home state of Texas. The new additions to Cruz's team include six notable Texans: Paul Dickerson of Houston, Charles Foster of Houston, Paula and Jim Henry of Midland, and Nancy and Randy Best of Dallas.

Cruz's announcement came a day after his campaign revealed it had raised almost $12 million in February, its biggest haul yet. The Cruz campaign has now taken in more than $66 million overall. 

The full list of the new members of Cruz's national finance team:

• Paul Dickerson of Houston
• Boyden Gray of Washington, D.C.
• Charles Foster of Houston
• Reginald J. Brown of Washington, D.C.
• Paula and Jim Henry of Midland
• Nancy and Randy Best of Dallas 

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Texas’ first lady, Cecilia Abbott, is one of 17 women named as national co-chairs of an effort to spread the message that a Cruz presidency would benefit women.

Other notable names in that list include Ginni Thomas, conservative activist and wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas; Jenny Beth Martin, chairman of the Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund; Kaye Goolsby, the Cruz campaign’s national grassroots chairwoman; and Mica Mosbacher, Republican political activist and widow of former Commerce Secretary Bob Mosbacher.

The Cruz campaign said the Women for Cruz coalition includes more than 23,000 members.

*****

Tuesday’s primary contests provided a few more examples of the maxim that every vote counts.

Example No. 1 was Byron Cook’s close call in HD-8. The Corsicana Republican was losing his re-election bid through most of the night when the final precincts reporting out of Anderson County lifted him to a 222-vote win out of more than 28,000 votes cast.

The Hugh Shine-Molly White contest in HD-55 was even closer with the challenger taking the seat by 118 votes out of more than 19,000 votes cast.

Closest of all, though, was David Simpson’s 13-vote advantage over Red Brown, which lifted Simpson into a May runoff in the SD-1 contest and left Brown on the outside looking in.

Two of those races may not be over yet. White, the freshman state representative from Belton, said she is requesting a recount. Simpson and Brown are in talks to ask for a recount in the SD-1 race.

The two largest counties in SD-1, Smith and Gregg, received 410 and 128 provisional ballots respectively. Smith is Brown’s home county, whereas Simpson is from Gregg. Military ballots are still incoming.

The local canvasses for the election will be held next week.

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Former Gov. Rick Perry visits Sandy's Hamburgers in Austin after the state's highest criminal court rules that his remaining felony indictment should be dismissed.

Judge Lawrence Meyers of the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals issued a fresh dissenting opinion Wednesday on the now-dismissed abuse of power case against former Gov. Rick Perry.

In it, he asserts that “it is clear” that Perry tied his veto power to demands that Rosemary Lehmberg resign following her drunken driving arrest, “thereby misusing his right.”

For anyone who doesn’t recall, the court last week dropped the remaining charge related to Perry’s 2013 threat to veto funding for the Travis County district attorney’s public integrity unit. In a 6-2 vote, the majority ruled that prosecuting Perry would violate the Texas Constitution’s separation of powers, and the governor’s First Amendment rights to free speech.

Meyers, the court’s lone Democrat, joined Cheryl Johnson in dissenting. Each wrote separate opinions, asserting — with other criticisms — that the majority gave Perry special treatment by letting him off the hook before evidence was presented.

Geary Reamey, a professor at St. Mary’s University School of law, told the Tribune that there was plenty out of the ordinary about last week’s ruling, particularly related to the second point Meyers raised — that the majority sought to dismiss Perry’s charges immediately, rather than giving the lower court guidance.

“It seems a little odd that they’re dismissing it,” he said.  “It’s not likely to have broad applications, but people who are legal scholars and practitioners and judges always seem to raise eyebrows when something out of the ordinary happens in a case like this.”

Reamey said it was clear that the majority was treating public officials differently than it would treat ordinary Texans facing felony charges. He wasn’t convinced, though, that the judges were showing favoritism to Perry specifically.

“They’re going to get a different kind of review than you or I,” he said of public officials.

*****

It’s certainly no secret that the sustained drop in oil prices has already had an effect on the economy in Texas. The comptroller is putting some numbers to that impact in his latest annual financial report for the state, which was released this week.

Some highlights:

•    The state’s economy is expected to continue to grow but the rate of growth will be cut by more than half. The overall economy, as measured by the Gross State Product, grew by 5.2 percent in 2014. The comptroller now says the GSP grew by 2.2 percent in 2015 and will grow by the same amount this year.
•    Another key indicator of the economy’s health, personal income, shows a similar trajectory, dropping from 6 percent growth in 2014 to 4.2 percent growth in 2015 and 4 percent growth this year.
•    The state’s unemployment rate, which dropped from 5 percent in 2014 to 4.3 percent last year, will rise to 4.5 percent this year.
•     Job losses over the past 12 months have been concentrated in the goods-producing sector, led by manufacturing (36,000 jobs lost) and mining and logging (30,300 jobs lost)
•    Falling oil prices and a strong dollar also has had the effect of hurting Texas exports, which were running 13 percent below 2014.
 
For the report, click here.

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For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked about those difficulties confronting the nation's major political parties this year.

This election cycle has spawned, from the presidential contest down to the odd county party chairman election, developments that no one could have foreseen. A common theme to all of this is an increasing inability of the establishment elements in each party to control insurgent factions.

One side effect of the rise of anti-establishment presidential candidate Donald Trump is a coarsening of the debate among the presidential hopefuls. When asked about the phenomenon, about 40 percent of the insiders called what they are witnessing a new low in American politics. Another quarter of the insiders said the rhetoric was nothing new while another third of the insiders said they'd describe it in different terms.

We then asked the insiders if the electoral disruptions happening this year portend a permanent shift or if they will prove an aberration. On that question, 37 percent of the insiders called this year's disruptions a permanent shift while 26 percent called them a one-time thing.

If these disruptions are forecasting a breakdown in the major political parties, a third of the insiders said that voter anxiety and anger are the reason why. Another 13 percent attributed a breakdown to a coarsening society. Ten percent blamed opportunistic politicians and 7 percent blamed the news media.

And here's an attention grabber. A majority of the insiders — 57 percent — predicted that a major political party will splinter into two or more parties sometime in the next 20 years.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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What’s up with all the name-calling among GOP presidential contenders?

• "The way Trump has dominated the news cycle has forced Rubio & Cruz to imitate the behavior. It is childish, but seems to be effective. That says more about the electorate than the candidates!"

• "The fact is the American electorate is fed up with D.C. politics and stalemates. This country has serious issues to deal with, such as social security, national debt, terrorism, and infrastructure. We the People are fed up!"

• "Recent campaigning is rather tame, but in the good ol' days politics was truly a contact sport and today's 'attacks' pale in comparison. I mean, 'Ma! Ma! Where's my pa?' compared to misrepresenting a procedural vote as support/opposition for a bill."

• "The kids from the 70's who grew up reading Al Jaffee's Snappy Answers to Stupid Questions in Mad Magazine are now running the show. But, yes, this is nothing new."

• "Dramatic change in the R party. Trump is bringing in populists, nationalists, and other disaffected to challenge both the far right and the establishment. They don't like it one bit, which explains the nastiness. Hillary will push them together. And, if Trump has any discipline, he has a good chance to be president."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Does this year’s electoral disruptions mark a permanent shift, or is this just a one-time thing?

• "If this is permanent, it will discourage good people from seeking public office."

• "It's another step along the path of personality politics and away from politics based on issues and institutions."

• "The Republican Party is breaking up. The rank-and-file is now longer buying what Big Money and the Religious Right are selling. The Democratic Party is holding it together, at least until the Baby Boomers are eclipsed by the much more progressive Millennials."

• "I do not believe this is static. I fear to imagine how far this can go in coming years, especially when this anger is no longer directed through electoral channels."

• "It may depend on the extent to which the anti-establishment, anti-incumbent types get what they want, only to find they didn't really get what they wanted."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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If the political parties are falling apart, __________ is/are the reason why.

• "The middle class and blue collar non-protected class of voters are mad as hell and they aren't going to take it any more. They feel political correctness and a pro bias toward minorities pursued by their government is disadvantaging them and their children."

• "Political parties have been declining in importance for 60 years, ever since 'reform' took nominating power away from party veterans and gave it to general public."

• "Social media, smart phones and the news media are all components of our instant entertainment consumption society — one for which an increasing number of people is unaffordable. So even though there's nothing really valuable to be had, people still feel anxious, angry and left out."

• "Lack of rules in media that give equal time to people to respond to lies and lack of requirement of news on public airways."

• "Everyone is brave on social media. Just like the telegraph, this new technology will ruin us."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Will a major political party splinter into two or more parties in the next 20 years?

• "The two party system will be hard pressed to accommodate the many tribes in this rapid splintering of national identity along the lines of geography, ideology, ethnicity, morality and incivility. Not a totally new phenomenon, just the most recent and significant since the 1960's."

• "The Republican Party could be on the brink. Remember, the Republican Party was born from the Whig Party."

• "We may end up in more of a Euro-style political environment over the long run. The Democratic Party will become the de facto socialist party, the Republicans will become what the Ds are now, and a small, right wing Nationalist party will pop up to bedevil what remains of the GOP. Race may become a more prominent feature and with fewer apologies than now."

• "The GOP center cannot hold. But don't crow, Ds — once there are more choices on the right, the D coalition will also split apart. Eventually, we will be like every other Western democracy and have multiple parties."

• "One can almost see the more conservative liberals and the less conservative conservatives grouping together into the party of the middle, if they could find a compelling champion. Maybe we call it the Formerly Silent Majority Party?"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, Jay Arnold, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Elna Christopher, Kevin Cooper, Randy Cubriel, Beth Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jon Fisher, Tom Forbes, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Steve Holzheauser, Laura Huffman, Kathy Hutto, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Myra Leo, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Jason McElvaney, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, A.J. Rodriguez, Grant Ruckel, Andy Sansom, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Bruce Scott, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Mark Smith, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Saturday, March 5

• Presidential nominating contests: Kansas caucuses, Kentucky caucuses (GOP only), Louisiana primary, Maine caucuses (GOP only), Nebraska caucuses (Democratic only)

Sunday, March 6

• Presidential nominating contests: Maine caucuses (Democratic only), Puerto Rico primary (GOP only)

Tuesday, March 8

• Presidential nominating contests: Hawaii caucuses (GOP only), Idaho primary (GOP only), Michigan primary, Mississippi primary
• "Confronting the Skills Gap: The Texas Experience", presented by The Atlantic; JW Marriott Austin, 110 E. Second St., Austin (8:30-11:30 a.m.)

Wednesday, March 9

• Opening of new Intrepid Spirit center at Fort Hood, with former Gov. Rick Perry and the Intrepid Fallen Heroes Fund; Marvin Leath Visitor Center, T.J. Mills Blvd., Fort Hood (11 a.m.-1 p.m.)
  
• State Rep. Joe Pickett, D-El Paso, fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6 p.m.)
• League of Women Voters of the Austin Area 24th Annual State of the County Dinner with guest speaker Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt; DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Austin, 6505 N. Interstate Hwy 35, Austin (5:30-9 p.m.)

The newly elected chair of the Republican Party in Travis County, Robert Morrow, spent most of election night tweeting about former Gov. Rick Perry’s sexual orientation and former President Bill Clinton’s penis. Members of the Travis County GOP are split about their feelings toward the controversial incoming chairman — some are pledging mutiny, while others embrace him as an agent of change.

Two of the closest races in Tuesday’s Texas Republican primary may not be over yet. State Rep. Molly White, R-Belton, is requesting a recount after she lost her re-election bid to Hugh Shine by 118 votes. In Senate District 1, state Rep. Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola, fell short of the 50 percent required to avoid a runoff. State Rep. David Simpson, R-Longview, is in the runoff but by just 13 votes over third-place finisher Red Brown.

More voters chose Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton than their leading primary challengers in almost every county in Texas, according to unofficial results from the Secretary of State.

During oral arguments Wednesday in a case challenging the constitutionality of Texas’ abortion restrictions, U.S. Supreme Court justices focused on what role the rules played in closing dozens of clinics, and probed the state’s justifications for the law.

Republican Mary Lou Bruner, who once claimed President Barack Obama used to be a gay prostitute, appears to be headed for a May 24 primary runoff against Lufkin school board president Keven Ellis in the race to represent District 9 on the State Board of Education.

House Speaker Joe Straus sailed to victory in his re-election bid and he avoided a significant net loss in fights between hard right conservatives and his lieutenants elsewhere in the state.

The University of Texas at Austin and all seven other schools in the University of Texas System won approval to increase tuition Monday, a move that will eventually tack on between $148 and $361 to the cost of students' schooling each semester. 

The U.S. Supreme Court has denied a request from Texas and 19 other states to block a landmark federal rule requiring power plants to slashes emissions of mercury, acid gases and other toxic metals emissions.

A private company that operates part of the Texas toll road with the highest speed limit in the country filed for bankruptcy Wednesday, fewer than three years after the section of the road it oversees first opened.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Gov. Greg Abbott announced three appointments — Kenneth Bateman of Richardson, Rachel Logue of The Hills and Evelyn Husband Thompson of Abilene — to the Texas State Board of Examiners of Marriage and Family Therapists for terms to expire on Feb. 1, 2021. He also named Jennifer Smothermon of Abilene as the board’s presiding officer.

Abbott on Monday made two new appointments — Shawn Sparrow of Beaumont and David L. Meaux of Orange — and two reappointments —James M. Scott of Beaumont and Brad Taylor of Orange — to the Jefferson and Orange County Board of Pilot Commissioners. They were named for terms to expire Aug. 22, 2017, with the exception of Meaux, whose term expires Aug. 22, 2016.

Abbott named Guy “Tony” Fidelie, Jr., of Wichita Falls to the Jobs and Education for Texans (JET) Grant Program Advisory Board for a term to expire June 19, 2017.

Abbott made four appointments to the Texas Diabetes Council on Wednesday, naming Joan Colgin of Dallas, Aida “Letty” Moreno-Brown of El Paso and William “David” Sanders of Dallas to the board and designating Kathy Ann LaCivita of San Antonio as the board’s chair. They were all named to terms set to expire Feb. 1, 2021.

Clyde Siebman of Pottsboro was reappointed presiding officer of the Grayson County Regional Mobility Authority by Gov. Greg Abbott for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2018.

Abbott also appointed Rad Weaver of San Antonio presiding officer of the Alamo Regional Mobility Authority for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2018. Weaver, CEO of McCombs Partners, is chairman elect of the San Antonio Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank and the San Antonio Chamber of Commerce.

State Sen. Jane Nelson, R-Flower Mound, and state Rep. Dennis Bonnen, R-Angleton, have been given awards for Outstanding Achievement in State Tax Reform in 2015 from the D.C.-based Tax Foundation. They were highlighted for their work to reform the business margins tax.

Longtime Abbott staffer Stacey Napier has been named the next executive director of the Texas Department of Information Resources. Napier is currently the director of administration at the Office of the Governor. She held an equivalent position at the Office of the Attorney General before that.

Association of Electric Companies of Texas President and CEO Julia Rathgeber announced on Wednesday the hiring of two new policy directors: former Joe Straus policy adviser Erika Akpan and former Charles Perry Chief of Staff Scott Hutchinson.

Disclosure: The Association of Electric Companies of Texas is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.