Headhunters, A Side

Never shoot a bear unless you're sure to kill it. If it lives, it might eat you. Dr. James Leininger and a political action committee he's funding (very, very generously) are on the hunt for five of the Republicans who broke ranks to vote against publicly funded vouchers for private schools. If they win, they'll scare the liquids out of legislators who defy them. If they lose, though, the lesson will be that it's safe to oppose them. Plus, there'll be all those bears walking around.

Bill Crocker of Austin, one of two Republican national committee members, announced the first five "liberal Republican" incumbents on his political action committee's hit list. And a couple of days later, the Texas Republican Legislative Campaign Committee filed campaign reports showing Leininger has pumped $750,000 into those contests. TRLCC likes Mark Williams of Longview in HD-7, Wayne Christian of Center in HD-9, Nathan Macias of Bulverde in HD-73, Van Wilson of Lubbock in HD-83, and Chris Hatley of Fort Worth in HD-99. Their GOP primary targets, respectively: Reps. Tommy Merritt of Longview, Roy Blake Jr. of Nacogdoches, Carter Casteel of New Braunfels, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, and Charlie Geren of Fort Worth. Christian is a former state rep; the other challengers are new to the game.

Crocker, backed by Leininger, started TRLCC "in response to growing frustration among grassroots activists over how a handful of liberal Republicans in the Legislature have abandoned conservative principles..."

The targeted incumbents were among a baker's dozen of Republicans who broke partisan ranks to vote against voucher provisions in an education bill. Casteel and Geren led two successful charges on those provisions, defying House Speaker Tom Craddick and also Leininger, a prominent Republican financier and voucher advocate who was there to try to lobby that legislation into law. Leininger provided $50,000 in seed money for Crocker's PAC; he was the only substantial contributor listed in the first campaign finance reports filed by the group, giving $50,000 of the $50,100 in the group's first report. We thought that was interesting enough to scribble about, but in the group's new report, Leininger put up big bucks for the cause. He contributed $500,000 more and pledged another $250,000.

This funding, mainly because of its size, is an issue in some races. Casteelsent out notices to reporters just to make sure they know more than 90 percent of the money raised by her challenger, Macias, came either from Leininger himself, a family member, or from the Texas Republican Legislative Campaign Committee he's backing. And across the state, after former House Speaker Pete Laney, D-Hale Center, raised the issue in a speech, Leininger's help for Wilson, made a splash in the Lubbock paper. Jones is the TRLCC target there. So far, the blasts have more to do with the scads of out of town money than with Leininger himself, though there's no doubt that he, along with Houston homebuilder Bob Perry, are the favorite piñatas of Democrats in legislative races. Texas Republicans use big trial lawyers for the same purpose.

Headhunters, B Side

The Texas Parent PAC is pushing a mixed slate featuring more Republicans than Democrats, but they're also trying to take out a number of incumbents. And they have significantly less money on the table than their counterparts at the TRLCC.

The Parent PAC endorsed Wade Gent, who's challenging Rep. Betty Brown, R-Terrell, in next month's GOP primary in HD-4. And though there is no official endorsement, campaign finance reports indicate they'll back Diane Patrick, who's challenging House Public Education Committee Chairman Kent Grusendorf, R-Arlington, in HD-94. They're also behind Vicky Rudy, Jimmie Don Aycock, Anne Lakusta, Charlie Williams, Thomas Latham. And the PAC previously endorsed Anette Carlisle in Amarillo, Delwin Jones in Lubbock, and Donna Howard in Austin.

Some of those candidates are after open seats: Vicky Rudy is one of three Republicans who want to replace Ruben Hope, R-Conroe, in HD-16. Aycock is one of four who wants to replace Suzanna Gratia Hupp, R-Lampasas, who's not seeking reelection in HD-54. Lakusta wants to replace Mary Denny, R-Aubrey, and is one of five candidates in the HD-63 primary. Carlisle wants to upset David Swinford, R-Dumas, in HD-87. Howard faces Republican Ben Bentzin in a special election next week in Austin's HD-48.

And some are after incumbents. Williams is challenging Rep. Larry Phillips, R-Sherman, in HD-62. Latham is running against Rep. Elvira Reyna, R-Mesquite, in HD-101.

Jones is, so far, the only incumbent the group is publicly supporting. He faces two challengers next month, one of whom is getting some of that Leininger dough.

In the Senate, the Parent PAC made has made only one public endorsement, choosing Bob Reeves from the four-candidate field of Republicans who want to replace Sen. Todd Staples, R-Palestine. Here's a taste of what they're saying in these endorsements, from the Reeves release: the group cited his 16 years on Center's school board, his opposition to consolidation and vouchers and his support for state-funded health insurance for teachers. A bit of boilerplate from their endorsements describes their candidates as "women and men of integrity, open and responsive to parents, actively involved in their communities, and committed to investing in public education to achieve economic prosperity in Texas."

Their biggest contribution so far was $20,000 from Charles Butt, CEO of San Antonio's HEB Grocery Co. Other contributors of interest: Rep. Bob Griggs, R-North Richland Hills, a former school superintendent who's leaving the Lege but pushing other educators to run, former Texas Education Commissioner Mike Moses of Dallas, former legislator and U.S. Ambassador Lyndon Olson Jr., whose brother Charles Olson, is on the PAC's board, and former Lt. Gov. Bill Ratliff.

Carolyn Boyle of Austin, who helped found the PAC last year to support education candidates, said they'll remain strictly bipartisan. She's said previously they want to raise $250,000 for candidates during the current cycle. So far, they've raised $61,956 and spent $21,438.

In Closing

The runoff candidates in the special election to replace Rep. Todd Baxter, R-Austin, have been considerate enough in public appearances, but both campaigns have the meat hooks swinging in the final week.

The runoff between Republican Ben Bentzin and Democrat Donna Howard is on Valentine's Day. Bentzin was ahead in the first round in early voting but got smoked on Election Day and is trying to flip a 20-point deficit. Ugly mail is in the air and both camps have been hitting doorbells and phones hard. They're also hurling accusations and mail.

Republicans: As a school board president, she voted to spend money on development of a second high school after voters had turned it down. Her camp says six of the seven board members voted on that spending and that it remains a good idea.

Democrats: He built two houses and undervalued them when reporting their worth to local tax authorities. His camp: The property appraisal district accepted the values, and nothing illegal took place. They also contend he "hid" dealings with a political consultant who's been indicted on campaign finance charges an earlier race for Senate. Bentzin's camp says John Colyandro was a subcontractor to a campaign printer and that they weren't hiding anything.

Also: Bentzin picked up an endorsement from EMPACT, the Texas Public Employees Association's political action committee. They claim more than 10,000 current and former state employees reside in that district. Only 13,556 people voted in the first round of that special election and a fraction of the state employees could determine the outcome of the Valentine's Day runoff between Bentzin and Howard, if they turned out. The Texas Academy of Family Physicians is backing Howard in that contest. She's got time as a critical care nurse on her resume and they think she'll be better on health care issues.

Political Numerology

Get to the top rung of state politics and you'll get to argue about... math. Gov. Rick Perry and Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn are bickering over how much money the state has on hand and which of them is better at juggling the state's accounts.

It's the same old fight they've been having for the last couple of years, but it's a break with the strategy Perry has been pursuing lately; his standard line to reporters asking about his gubernatorial rival has been dismissal. He's been saying he'll wait and see whether she gets on the ballot as an independent. That's the same brush-off he gives when asked about Kinky Friedman.

But Strayhorn will be collecting signatures for that effort while Perry is trying to get the Legislature to come together on a tax bill needed for school finance. The only state finance numbers that have any legal weight are the comptroller's. But Perry and a fair number of legislators think politics have infected her financial forecasts, and he's positioning himself for a battle during the special session that could extend through the elections in November.

He and his aides hit her from two sides. Perry went to the Texas Association of Business with a time-tested canard, saying she's sitting on $3 billion in uncollected bills and that she ought to "do her job" and bring that money in. It got applause from the audience, but don't count the take; the state's uncollectibles go from the comptroller to the attorney general for legal action and the lion's share never comes in. The taxpayers in question have names you'll find on bankruptcy and out-of-business rolls, and some are scammers. But it makes for good politics if you ever find yourself running against an incumbent comptroller or attorney general.

The breakdowns, for the curious: $1.2 billion in judgments, where there are court orders against taxpayers, $335 million in bankruptcies, and $325 million in "certifications," or accounts that have been handed over to the AG from the comptroller but aren't in the judgment stack. All of that — $1.8 billion — is still classified as "collectible." Another $779 million is in the state's "Uncollectible taxpayers" bin. That last category doesn't include any judgments, which apparently stay on the books for years and years and years even if the comptroller and the AG are sure there's no way to collect. A business would write them off.

Strayhorn, meanwhile, said the state has $4.3 billion that's available to the Legislature. Some of it — $1.8 billion — was set aside by lawmakers to cover the costs of education bills they never could pass. That's dedicated to education, but they can stick to that or change plans if they want. Another $473 million was appropriated but has gone unspent. That piece could be spent either by the full Legislature or by the ten-member Legislative Budget Board, which has been sitting on projects like a pharmacy school in Kingsville and a medical branch in El Paso.

Another $1.2 billion was already reported by the comptroller — that money came from revenue growth above what she had predicted. And Strayhorn added another $800 million she attributed to "growth in general revenue account balances."

Perry accused Strayhorn of coming in late with the final number, the $4.3 billion. And when it was finally in hand, his press secretary said the new $800 million — added after Strayhorn issued a year-end number in September and a year-end report in November — proved she can't count. Strayhorn's office responded with its own press release, also quoting someone other than the officeholder/candidate — saying the $800 million became clear only as the number-crunchers went over balances in year-end accounts from all the state agencies.

The policy part? Legislators have $4.3 billion available for school finance — or whatever else they want to buy — before they do anything with a tax bill. If they remain on track to raise $6 billion in state taxes to pay for a reduction of that size in local property taxes, they'll still have money for higher education spending. Or they could give it back to taxpayers, as Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman have suggested. Or they could save it for the next budget, which they'll be writing at this time next year. The Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative think tank, suggested they use it for property tax relief to lower the size of the state tax bill Perry's been working on. That would take care of the first year's cut, but nothing after that.

You Can Only Eat What's on Your Plate

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Gov. Rick Perry have different ideas about what the Legislature ought to do during a special session, but Perry's the guy controlling the agenda.

While Dewhurst told the Texas Association of Business that education reform ought to be part of the puzzle, Perry told the same group 24 hours later that he wants lawmakers to focus on changes to school finance to make it constitutional in the eyes of the Texas Supreme Court.

House Speaker Tom Craddick has said he'd like to see education reforms, too, but has left open the question of whether that should happen in a spring special session or in next year's regular legislative session. Perry took the same tone, sort of, telling the bidness people in a luncheon speech that it "remains to be seen" whether education reform could be taken on this year. They'll start, he said, with the money.

Dewhurst Taketh Away

Keep in mind that the new committee assignments in the Texas Senate are only good until next January or so, when the Legislature comes back for its regular session.

That's not much consolation to Sens. Chris Harris, R-Arlington, and Eliot Shapleigh, D-El Paso, who got busted by Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

The Lite Guv took the chairmanship of administration away from Harris and put Sen. Kim Brimer, R-Fort Worth in that slot. That's been brewing since Harris got caught trying to sneak three pet bills out of the Senate that hadn't been posted on the local calendar. Shapleigh lost his post on Finance, a bust most off-track bettors attributed to the Democrat's endorsement of Carlos Uresti's challenge to sitting Sen. Frank Madla, D-San Antonio.

Sen. John Carona, R-Dallas, got the Transportation Committee. Kip Averitt, R-McGregor, will head Natural Resources, and Sen. Mike Jackson, R-La Porte, will head Nominations.

Matters of Size

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison had $7,817,347 in the bank at the end of the year. Barbara Ann Radnofsky, who's after the Democratic nomination to challenger Hutchison, had $425,724. Democrat Gene Kelly's report isn't online at the Federal Elections Commission, but Democrat Darrel Reece Hunter had $277 on hand at year-end.

In CD-17, the two Republicans who want a piece of U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, R-Waco, are mismatched financially. Van Taylor (on the reports, he's Nicholas Vancampen Taylor), had 628,698 at year-end to Tucker Anderson's $66,391. Taylor also had a $325,000 loan outstanding. Edwards, with a free shot until November, had $915,010 in the bank.

U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, got to the end of the year with $1,445,433 on hand to defend his seat in CD-22. Democrat Nick Lampson, who's challenging, had $1,291,554. DeLay has three Republican challengers; the nearest in money is Thomas Campbell, who had only $53,380 on hand at the end of 2005.

The other hot Texas race, in CD-28, is also uneven. U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, had $290,833 on hand (including $215,385 in loans outstanding), while Ciro Rodriguez had $43,070. Since then, things have improved a bit for the challenger. If the Rodriguez campaign is on the level, a picture is worth about $80,000 in addition to the standard 1,000 words. On the night of the State of the Union speech, President George W. Bush and Cuellar were photographed with Bush holding Cuellar's beaming face in both hands. It's been a popular "caption this picture" item on the Internet, and Rodriguez says bloggers and partisans have turned it into a fresh attack on Cuellar for being too close to Republicans. That, his campaign says, has generated $80,000 in contributions.

Political Notes

House Speaker Tom Craddick, R-Midland, will headline a rally for Rep. Carter Casteel next Thursday in New Braunfels. Casteel, who broke ranks on a handful of votes dear to Craddick and other Republican poobahs, has nevertheless got his support and endorsements from all of the state senators and congressmen whose districts overlap her House district (and some others).

• Rep. Pat Haggerty, R-El Paso, got the endorsement of U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. He's being challenged by Lorraine O'Donnell, some of whose financing comes from prominent El Pasoans who gave Hutchison a chilly reception last year when she was talking about a challenge to Gov. Rick Perry.

• The Texas State Teacher Association endorsed Katy Hubener in the special election to replace Rep. Ray Allen, R-Grand Prairie. She'll face Republican Kirk England and Libertarian Gene Freeman on February 28. The Dallas Morning News ended its special election endorsement of Hubener with a line worthy of a car salesman, noting the regular elections are still ahead: "Besides, if voters don't like how Ms. Hubener performs in Austin during the special session, they'll have a chance to toss her out in November."

Kevin Christian got CLEAT's endorsement (Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas) in the four-way GOP primary to replace Rep. Bob Hunter, R-Abilene, in HD-71.

• Don Willett, appointed to the Texas Supreme Court by Gov. Rick Perry, picked up some endorsements in his GOP primary race against former Justice Steve Smith. The Texas Association of Builders HomePAC, the Texas Farm Bureau's AGFUND PAC, and the Texas Dental Association's DENPAC all favor Willett in the race.

• Sen. Bob Deuell, R-Greenville, picked up the endorsement of the Texas Association of Realtors. He's got a primary challenger, Tim McCallum of Rockwall.

• Four Republicans who considered and then decided not to run in HD-47 endorsed Bill Welch in the Republican primary. That's an open seat — Terry Keel is leaving the House to run for a judgeship — and Welch is one of five Republicans in the hunt. It's an odd announcement to make, but with that many people on the ballot, anything could help. The winner of the GOP's nomination will face one of four Democrats who are after that party's slot on the ballot. Welch also picked up the support of the PACs of the Texas Association of Realtors and the Texas Society of Professional Engineers.

Brian Keith Walker hit the Trifecta, with nods from Cathie Adams, head of the Texas Eagle Forum, The Texas Home School Coalition PAC, and the Young Conservatives of Texas (Adams' endorsement is personal; not from TEF). He's one of three Republicans seeking a chance at Rep. Chuck Hopson, D-Jacksonville.

Karen Felthauser, a Democrat running against Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Austin, is financing her campaign with a Valentine's Day "Love Feast" for couples that want to eat shrimp, stare lovingly into each others' eyes and support Felthauser's campaign. They're offering flowers, Shrimp Creole for two, and a place on the candidate's C&E report for $40.

Isett Deployed

Rep. Carl Isett, R-Lubbock, will join the troops in Iraq in the next few weeks. Isett, a Navy Reservist, will be the executive officer for a new battalion of the Navy's Expeditionary Logistics Support Group that'll be deployed in Iraq and Kuwait.

Isett didn't immediately name someone to represent the district if he's gone during a special legislative session this spring. He and his wife have an accounting business and seven children; she might be fully employed, but other legislators have named their spouses to temporarily fill in. Rep. Frank Corte, R-San Antonio, is a Marine Reservist recently called up, named his wife, Valerie Corte, to act in his absence. And Melissa Noriega filled in for her husband, Rep. Rick Noriega, D-Houston, when he was deployed by the U.S. Army (he's in the National Guard) to Afghanistan during last year's regular session.

Political People and Their Moves

Gov. Rick Perry named Dale Kimble, CEO of DATCU Credit Union in Denton, to the board that regulates that and similar institutions. The Texas Credit Union Commission oversees the department of the same name and, by statute, counts several credit union execs in its number.

Sheila Bailey Taylor will continue as the chief administrative law judge at the State Office of Administrative Hearings. She's been in that post since 1996, and Perry appointed her to another year in that post.

The Guv appointed Jesse Coffey of Denton to the Texas State Affordable Housing Corporation; it oversees housing for low income Texans. He's a former banker and the retired owner of Coffey Development.

Elsie Allen of Fort Worth is the newest appointee to the Texas Board of Professional Engineers. She's a former cop who's now a background investigator for DynCorp, a government and military contractor.

Gov. Perry named four people to the state's Health and Human Services Council. One is new: Fernando Treviño of Southlake, dean of the School of Public Health at the University of Texas Health Science Center. Three are being reappointed to fresh terms on the board that sets policies and rules for the HHS Commission. They are Kathleen Angel of Austin, a Dell executive; Robert Valadez, a San Antonio attorney; and Maryann Choi of Georgetown, CEO of SunStar Geriatric Healthcare, medical director of Trisun Nursing homes and an assistant prof at Texas A&M University's College of Medicine.

Add four names to the Texas Economic Development Commission's masthead: Paul Foster of El Paso, CEO of Western Refining; Alfred Jones of Corpus Christi, CEO of American Bank; Nicholas Serafy Jr. of Brownsville, CEO of Proficiency Testing Service, Inc.; and Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace.

Michael Brimberry is the new president of the Texas State Board of Pharmacy, which licenses druggists and their businesses. He's an Austin pharmacist with the Seton Healthcare Network.

Perry named Patrick Gordon of El Paso, an attorney, to the Rio Grande Compact Commission that negotiates water rights between Texas, New Mexico and Colorado.

The state board that regulates manufactured housing has a new member: Carlos Amaral of Plano, CEO of Sequoia Network Services.

Add some newbies to the Texas Commission on the Arts: Victoria Lightman of Houston, who'll be the panel's presiding officer, runs an art education and appreciation program; Patty Bryant of Amarillo, owner of a communications company; David Garza of Brownsville, an attorney; Billye Proctor Shaw of Abilene, chairman of Big Tex Crude Oil Co.; Polly Sowell of Austin, a former staff in Perry's appointments office; and Norma Webb, a Midland artist.

Frederick Ross Fischer of Kendalia, an attorney for the State Bar of Texas, and James David Montagne of Orange, assistant general manager of the Sabine River Authority, will stay on the Texas Ethics Commission. Perry reappointed them.

One of U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's Texas regulars, Kevin Cooper, is going out on his own into the lobby world (in Austin). His replacement as Austin regional director is Carl Mica, who was on her scheduling staff.

Brandon Aghamalian moves from the City of Fort Worth, where he was an "intergovernmental relations" person, to Hillco Partners in Austin, where they call that lobbying.

Deaths: Ronald Edd Roberts, a retired political science professor at Lee College and former Texas House member. He was 71.

Quotes of the Week

Larry Briggs, a chemical plant operator, talking about Kinky Friedman the The Baytown Sun: "I like the idea that he's not going to have to kiss anybody's butt once he gets in office."

Rep. Charlie Howard, telling Fort Bend Now why he laid out a proposal for an "adjusted receipts tax" at a candidate's forum without telling the audience he'd learned about it in conversations with Gov. Rick Perry and former Comptroller John Sharp, who's heading the tax reform panel: "I didn’t want to show off."

Gov. Rick Perry, on the agenda for an upcoming special session on school finance: "Do we have to eat this pie at one sitting? I think the answer is no. We can eat it one slice at a time and enjoy it and actually keep it down."

Sen. Frank Madla, D-San Antonio, talking to a dinner group on a web video being distributed by his Democratic challenger, Rep. Carlos Uresti: "When I get to the state Capitol, I lock the Democratic Party in my trunk."

Rep. Carter Casteel, R-New Braunfels, talking to The Dallas Morning News about a well-funded challenge from the right: "My mother would be rolling in her grave if she thought I was intimidated by someone who is trying to buy a seat."


Texas Weekly: Volume 22, Issue 32, 13 February 2006. Ross Ramsey, Editor. George Phenix, Publisher. Copyright 2006 by Printing Production Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (800) 611-4980 or email info@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 288-6598.

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Howard beat Bentzin last week...Donna Howard, a Democrat, received 4,629 votes, or 55.9 percent, in early voting of the runoff special election to succeed former Rep. Todd Baxter, R-Austin. Republican Ben Bentzin got 3,658 votes, or 44.1 percent.

Donna Howard, with 57.6 percent of the (unofficial) vote, won the special election to replace former Rep. Todd Baxter, R-Austin, in the Texas House.Howard, a Democrat in a swing district, swamped Republican Ben Bentzin, getting 12,618 votes to his 9,281. Bentzin, relying on a negative advertising campaign and beefed up mail and phone campaigns, did little better in the runoff than in the first round. More people voted, but more of the newbies preferred Howard, a former school trustee in the Eanes ISD, to Bentzin, a retired Dell Computer exec. Both have filed to run for a full term in the HD-48 seat; expect a rematch in November.

A new book on the top negative political campaigns of all time features two Texas races and three presidential contests with Texas candidates.Mudslingers: The Top 25 Negative Political Campaigns of All Time features write-ups of the John Tower?Bob Krueger race for U.S. Senate in 1980, the Ann Richards?Clayton Williams gubernatorial race of 1990, and the presidential contests between Lyndon Baines Johnson and Barry Goldwater in 1964, George H. W. Bush?Michael Dukakis in 1988, and George W. Bush?John Kerry in 2004. The Bush-Dukakis race finished 8th on the all-time nasty list compiled by Kerwin Swint, a former campaign consultant who now teaches political science in Georgia. Ann and Claytie were 11th (though we would probably argue that the general election wasn't as tough as the Democratic primary contest between Richards, Jim Mattox and Mark White, which gets a brief mention in the chapter). Tower and Krueger are number 13 in the book, with the chapter title, "In This Corner, Little Lord Fauntleroy." LBJ-Goldwater is 22nd in the book, and the latest presidential contest was number 25. The book hops around in American history. The most negative race, in Swint's figuring, was the race-baiting 1970 Democratic primary for governor of Alabama between George Wallace and Albert Brewer. The next one on the list happened several generations earlier, when Andrew Jackson and John Quincy Adams faced each other for president in 1828.

Gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman has a new Internet cartoon asking people to skip the March primaries -- and Carole Keeton Strayhorn's petitions -- so they can sign petitions to put Friedman on the ballot as an independent.The "Kinkytoon" lists the "10 things easier to do than run for governor of Texas," a lineup that includes figuring out the Marfa lights or the Dallas freeway system, agreeing on school reform, and getting indicted for election fraud. The school finance bit features a Legislature full of monkeys chewing on law books and acting up. Friedman's commercial includes pleas to register to vote, to skip the March primaries, and to sign his petitions. One section features a big red "WARNING!" over the sounds of a siren, with a yellow sign that says "Do not sign Strayhorn's petition." Voters only get one shot they can use on petitions or on primary votes. Friedman and Strayhorn have to have about 45,540 signatures to get on the ballot, and those have to be certified by Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, who has said it could take two months to get the job done. The Friedman cartoon/commercial is available online at this address:
www.kinkyfriedman.com/multimedia/_video/kinkytoon_02/.

A couple of the people who were privately touting a January Rasmussen poll hit the brakes and called us this week to tell us the new numbers are just bogus. Ahem.In January, that New Jersey firm had Gov. Rick Perry at 40 percent and Carole Keeton Strayhorn at 21 percent. Perry supporters liked that. In the first week of this month, the firm polled again and got the same sounding for Perry, but now has Strayhorn at 31 percent if the election were held today. Score it as good news for Strayhorn, if true, but as bad news for people we haven't mentioned yet. The combined total for the two Republicans (Strayhorn, running as an independent, still calls herself a Republican), leaves only 29 percent of the votes to split between Kinky Friedman, another independent, and whichever Democrat gets out of that party's primary next month. In a hypothetical four-way race, the firm said Bob Gammage had 18 percent of the voters. In a second hypothetical contest, Chris Bell would get 13 percent, according to the pollsters. Friedman was behind the Democrats in these results The usual caveats: The election isn't until November, the two independents aren't on the ballot yet, one of the Democrats will fall next month, and all kinds of things could happen in the political world.

Austin Republican Ben Bentzin started his latest attempt to win a seat in the statehouse with every advantage: Help from high state officials; a district drawn for a Republican; a special election called by a Republican governor for a date that was presumably to the advantage of his own party; a successful effort at keeping other Republicans out of the race; two Democrats splitting votes on their side and supposedly bettering his chances in a special election; and a huge financial advantage over everyone else in the field.The stakes were high for both political parties. Republicans barely won the seat in 2004, and then saw several big issues come down to one- and two-vote margins in the House last year. Rep. Todd Baxter, who resigned the post to become a cable TV lobbyist, was widely regarded by both parties as vulnerable. Baxter, a strong campaigner, won by fewer than 150 votes two years ago and was one of several lawmakers supported by now-controversial groups tied to U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay. Bentzin was supposed to secure it for the GOP. But the nail was harder than the hammer. Bentzin lost -- badly -- to Democrat Donna Howard, mustering just 42.4 percent of the vote to her 57.6 percent. The question now, for both parties: Is this portable? Could what happened in HD-48 happen in other districts in this election cycle? Was it a change in the district, or a bad candidate, or a bungled campaign, or an early sign of a tough year to be a Republican on the ballot? Maybe it's a statehouse problem? It's a mix. Bentzin ran a weak campaign and let the Democrats introduce him to voters, tarring him with Tom DeLay and DeLay's associates and DeLay's current unpopularity, particularly in Austin. The district has been trending toward the Democrats since redistricting. Howard made an issue of public education, which appeared to resonate strongly in a legislative district where school finance and education are hot issues. Start the autopsy with the last regular election in the district, in 2004: Baxter beat Kelly White by 147 votes, but was the lowest-performing Republican on the district's ballot that year. George W. Bush won with 53 percent, and the average statewide Republican candidate got 54.3 percent in the district. Countywide candidates -- running below Baxter on the ballot -- got 53 percent to 57 percent of the vote. That's what Republican turf looks like, so Bentzin and almost every other Republican we know was surprised when, in the first round of the special election, he got 37.8 percent to Howard's 49.4 percent. Up to that point, much of the talk in GOP circles was over whether he'd win outright or need a runoff. Kathy Rider, a Democrat, finished third, with 10.4 percent. Both sides ginned up their turnout machines for the Valentine's Day runoff, and 8,343 more people voted in that round. But most of them voted for Howard. For the runoff, Bentzin attacked Howard and dropped the odd ad campaign that dominated his first round sales pitch. He was trying to get people to vote in the second half who skipped the first, on the theory that Republicans didn't show up and that a higher turnout in that district would be more conservative. Because of Rider's performance, if Republicans couldn't change the pool of voters, they were afraid Howard would get the votes she needed and an extra 10 percent on top. But two things stuck. Bentzin positioned himself close to Perry and the leadership in Austin in a district that's not particularly happy about state government at the moment. And the Republican let the Democrats define him for voters. That happened in the first round and he never shook it off. Bentzin's second-round attacks -- an attempt to tie Howard to an old controversy most voters didn't remember or particularly care about -- didn't leave a mark. The Democratic attack on Bentzin was more contemporary, attaching him by association to the troubles of U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, and to his Texans for a Republican Majority, which has been in the news in Austin for almost four years. That's the group that led Republican efforts to take over the Texas House, a successful effort that also brought many of TRMPAC's officers and consultants to the attention of Travis County prosecutors and grand juries. Austin's the center of that investigation, and Republicans will happily tell you it's an unusually liberal environment (for Texas) and that anybody with an elephant on their bumper sticker starts with a handicap. That could be right. But it's also true that Austin was one of the locales hit hardest in the tough fight over congressional redistricting, and getting carved up in that process left some resentments against DeLay and anyone associated with him, even among Republicans. Add in a tincture of Abramoff, a dash of TRMPAC, and season heavily with frustration over the school finance mess, and you've concocted the environment for an upset. Howard is a strong candidate and ran better campaign -- in both the special election and the runoff. So, does it travel? That's mainly a November question, but there's another laboratory test underway in Grand Prairie, where the resignation of Rep. Ray Allen, a Republican, triggered a special election set for February 28. Kirk England, the Republican in the race, has Allen's endorsement and is the son of a popular mayor. Katy Hubener, the Democrat, lost to Allen two years ago and was ready for a rematch when he quit to become a lobbyist. And there's a Libertarian in the race, Gene Freeman, who could be a spoiler if this gets close. The numbers in HD-106 are a little better for the Republicans, and the voters are different, with lower average incomes and fewer college degrees than in HD-48. In 2004, Bush got 59.4 percent against Kerry; the average Republican statewide got 57 percent, and a Republican candidate for Dallas County sheriff got 55 percent of the vote while he was losing the election. Allen got 52.6 percent against Hubener. School finance is a big deal, though, and we're not aware of any times between England and DeLay. But the results might say something about the political environment in Texas.

What hit Ben Bentzin? A series of mailers (see below) from Texas Democrats that landed in the final days before the special election in January got the credit for flipping his numbers. He won in early voting and then got spanked on Election Day. Donna Howard missed a clean win in the first round by only 73 votes.Bentzin came back with an attack ad on TV in round two, but the Democrats were there again, tying Bentzin to Tom DeLay, dinging him on public education and questioning the veracity of his attacks on Howard. Mail didn't do everything -- both sides ran extensive ground wars and phone banks to get out their votes and increased the turnout by 61 percent from the special election to the runoff. But Republicans on the Bentzin side told us the media campaign from Howard and the Democrats turned the election. Howard was paying for and appearing in positive spots on television while Travis County's Democratic Party and the House Democratic Campaign Committee shoveled attacks on Bentzin into mailboxes throughout the district. Now that it's over, the Democrats shared some mail with us, which we're showing partly out of the sort of prurient interest only political junkies share, and partly because a lot of this could be used in other races if the candidate photos and names and just a few words were changed. Consultants in both parties tell us they've forwarded some of this -- particularly the anti-DeLay stuff -- to their national counterparts. For Democrats, it's a bag of ideas that can be used in congressional races. For Republicans, it's a cautionary vision of what lies ahead in those same contests. The Democrats sent seven mail pieces (that we know of). Three -- Backyard, Washer and Ethics -- went to regular Democratic voters in the first round of the contest and then to independent and swing and "soft" Democratic voters in the second round. Three more -- Just Ask, Zero, and V-Day -- went to Democratic voters in round two. And the last ad -- the "Truth Test" piece -- was sent to "soft" Republicans in the runoff to dampen their enthusiasm. Some of the picture file got lost in translation, but the idea was to tell Republican voters that three of their stalwarts -- Karl Rove, Karen Hughes, and Margaret LaMontagne (now Spellings) -- were on Howard's side in the fight over what Bentzin called "the road to nowhere." You can download a (large!) .pdf file with all of the spots from our Files section, at:
www.texasweekly.com/documents/HD-48-Dems.pdf. Or you can just look at these: "Backyard"

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"Washer"

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"Ethics"

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"Just Ask"

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"Zero"

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"V-Day"

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"Truth Test"

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Urging Texans to vote in the party primaries is, in the reckoning of Kinky Friedman's camp, another way of telling them not to sign petitions for independent candidates.And they're also ticked at Secretary of State Roger Williams for predicting it'll take him two months to check the validity of the signatures turned in by Friedman and others running under the no-label label. But they don't include Strayhorn in their camp, saying her independent campaign is "funded by money raised as a major party candidate." They're running against Perry and all them others, too. "Texas can do better than a governor who cannot govern, a comptroller who cannot count, and a Secretary of State who is not above partisan politics," said campaign director Dean Barkley. • The Texas Parent PAC endorsed Diane Patrick, who's challenging House Public Education Committee Chairman Kent Grusendorf in next month's GOP primary. The two Arlington Republicans have both been on the State Board of Education and Patrick's been on the Arlington ISD school board. Grusendorf is getting help from Gov. Rick Perry, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and House Speaker Tom Craddick in what both the leadership and the education establishment see as a key battle. Grusendorf has advocated vouchers, later start dates for school years, merit pay for teachers, and November elections of school board members -- most educators oppose him on each of those positions. • Harris County Judge Robert Eckels endorsed Rep. Peggy Hamric, R-Houston, in the four-way contest for Jon Lindsay's spot in the state Senate. Hamric, who seems downright quiet in the din of Dan Patrick and Joe Nixon, earlier got Lindsay's endorsement. Nixon, meanwhile, picked up an endorsement from fellow state Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale, R-Tomball. • Attorney General candidate David Van Os plans to "filibuster for independence" for 24 hours at the state Capitol on March 3. He says he'll start at 6 pm that Friday and talk until the same hour the next day. He's inviting other Democrats to share the speaking chores and calls it a celebration of the 170th anniversary of the state's Declaration of Independence. • Chris Hatley, one of the Republicans challenging Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth, is using a gay rights group's rankings of lawmakers to show the incumbent isn't conservative enough. Geren apparently didn't get a bad enough grade: "... a pro-homosexual website, Gay Rights Info, gives Geren a "C" for his votes in favor of legislation which stiffens penalties for crimes against homosexuals just because of their sexual preference, among other votes it deems homosexual-friendly. Most Republicans have either an F or an F- running total from Gay Rights Info," Hatley says in a press release. • Former Webb County Judge Mercurio Martinez claims to have raised $170,000 for his statehouse race at one event. He's challenging Rep. Richard Raymond, D-Laredo, who left the race to run for Congress and then returned after his successors had assembled. • Dan Corbin, a Republican in a busy primary for Suzanna Gratia Hupp's spot in the House, got the rug pulled out from under him by another politico. Rep. Sid Miller, R-Stephenville, pulled his endorsement because of Corbin's opposition to Prop 12, the constitutional amendment that limits the liability of doctors and hospitals who lose lawsuits over medical care. But Miller didn't just pull out -- he did it in a letter that was printed up and distributed all over the district by Texans for Lawsuit Reform, the group that drafted and promoted Prop. 12.

Nine Democrats in the Texas congressional delegation have joined the push for funding at the Irma Rangel School of Pharmacy in Kingsville.Funding for that facility is stuck in the state's Legislative Budget Board, and the nine U.S. Reps. sent a letter to House Speaker Tom Craddick asking him to get it unstuck. Gov. Rick Perry has come out in support of the funding for the school, as has Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. But Craddick's kept it parked, along with funding for a Texas Tech medical facility in El Paso. If it gets its money, the pharmacy school is set to open for business next fall. Craddick and Dewhurst did, however, uncork some money for health and human services, including $8.6 million to restore cuts in the personal needs allowance for long-term care nursing home residents (they'll get $60 a month instead of $45), $180.7 million for nursing facility rate increases $27.6 million for EMS and trauma care, and $13.4 million for increased capacity in state hospitals for mental health. Those amounts include federal funds, and apparently, the LBB doesn't need to meet. Dewhurst and Craddick did it by letter. • Dallas, Houston and San Antonio are among the 31 cities on the Republican National Committee's long list for possible national convention sites in 2008. Dallas hosted the Republicans in 1984, when Ronald Reagan was nominated for what turned out to be his reelection. Houston played host in 1992, when George H.W. Bush was nominated for his unsuccessful bid for a second term. San Antonio bid for the convention in 2000, but the GOP decided to go to Philadelphia that year. This is the first round; not all of the cities on the list are expected to bid for the convention. Department of Corrections: We misspelled Tim Eaton's name recently, and it's spelled like you see it in this sentence. And a follow-up: Sen. Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock, won't be a candidate for chancellor at Texas Tech University. His name came up when Dr. David Smith announced his resignation from that spot, but says his name isn't in the hat.

Political People and their Moves

After 31 years at the head of what was supposed to be a five-year enterprise, Norman Newton is resigning as executive director of Associated Republicans of Texas, or ART. Newton and then-U.S. Sen. John Tower, R-Texas, started up the organization after the Republican drubbing that followed President Richard Nixon's resignation. For years, ART was the only group working steadily to increase the number of Republicans in the Texas Legislature; others joined in as a majority came within striking distance. Newton will join his son, Trey Newton, and Johnnie B. Rogers in their Newton-Rogers consulting firm. ART hasn't named a new ED. Mark Miner, communications director for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst for the last four years, is leaving state employment to try his hand as a lobster. He'll open an Austin office for Mercury Public Affairs, which is affiliated with Fleishman-Hillard. Ginger Murray, formerly a legislative aide to Sen. Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo, is back on staff as legislative director. Deon Daugherty Allen is back in the Senate after a stint with the Quorum Report. And she's in the same spot she left, working as communications director for Sen. Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock. Gov. Rick Perry appointed Shalia Cowan of Dripping Springs and Angela Wolf of Austin to the governing board at the Texas School for the Deaf, and reappointed Jean Andrews of Beaumont. Cowan is an adjunct professor at Texas Tech and teaches an online course in deaf education. Wolf works in human resources at the Public Utility Commission of Texas and a member of the school's district advisory committee, and Andrews is a professor of deaf education at Lamar University. House Speaker Tom Craddick appointed Rep. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham, to the Sunset Advisory Commission. She'll take Carl Isett's spot; he resigned that spot (not his House seat, though) because he's been deployed to Iraq. John Gravois, a former reporter in the Capitol Press Corps (for the late Houston Post) and now the deputy managing editor for government and politics at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, is recovering from valve replacement and triple-bypass surgery. We're told the prognosis is good. Deaths: Phil Strickland, a terrific guy who sometimes referred to himself as the only lobbyist for religion in Austin, of complications from a rare form of lung cancer. He was 64. Strickland was director of the Christian Life Commission of the Baptist General Convention of Texas, and founder of Texans Care for Children. He was a lawyer until 1967, when he decided to take a break to fight gambling legislation.

Quotes of the Week

Cheney, Perry, Culberson, and HurttVice President Dick Cheney, talking to Fox News about the South Texas hunting accident that put Austin lawyer Harry Whittington in the hospital: "It's not Harry's fault. You can't blame anybody else. I'm the guy who pulled the trigger and shot my friend." Gov. Rick Perry, quoted by the Associated Press from a speech to the Conservative Action Political Conference: "The public expects Democrats to spend because that's what they do. On the other hand, they elect Republicans to stop that from happening, and if Republicans keep spending like Democrats, the public will elect the real thing." U.S. Rep. John Culberson, R-Houston, quoted by The Dallas Morning News in support of legislation that would let the federal government fund local law enforcement to help on the Texas-Mexico border: "Whether it's a terrorist or an illegal alien, they're not going to cross the border if there's a uniformed deputy sheriff with a machine gun on the other side." Houston Police Chief Harold Hurtt, telling the Houston Chronicle that downtown surveillance cameras could ease the need for more officers: "I know a lot of people are concerned about big brother, but my response to that is if you aren't doing anything wrong why worry about it."