The blue wave that swept the country on Election Day wasn't as obvious in Texas, where Republicans won all of the statewide offices on the ballot and held all but a couple of seats in the congressional delegation and the state Senate.

Democrats picked up five seats in the Texas House and overwhelmed local Republicans in former bastions of Dallas and Hays counties. Lots of post-election talk — on both sides — centered on the weakness of most statewide Democratic candidates and on what might have happened with a little more talent, a little more organization and a little more money on that side.

Libertarian candidates did better than usual — probably helped by Republican voters who skipped their own candidates but wouldn't switch to the Democrats. Some races considered uncompetitive ended up tight. And some that were supposed to be competitive ended up safely in Democratic hands. The blue wave wasn't as obvious in this red state as elsewhere in the U.S., but it left its mark, and might spark a race for the top job in the Texas House.

No Heavy Weather Upstairs on the Ballot

Republicans swept the top offices in state government for the third time in a row. No Democrat has won a statewide general election in the state since 1994.

Texas voters reelected Gov. Rick Perry, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Attorney General Greg Abbott, and Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson. Three Republicans won new statewide posts: Susan Combs as comptroller, Todd Staples as agriculture commissioner and Elizabeth Ames Jones as railroad commissioner, a post she held by appointment until the election.

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison easily won reelection, as did all but one of the state's congressional incumbents — Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio, who faces a runoff against Democrat Ciro Rodriguez next month.

Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs won one and lost one in the races to replace former U.S House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land. She was on the ballot for the remaining weeks of Tom DeLay's term, and finished well in front of everyone else. But as a write-in for a full term in that office, she lagged behind Democrat Nick Lampson, who had the advantage of having his name on the ballot. He ended up with 51.8 percent.

And Republicans swept the 18 statewide judicial spots, with only one — Supreme Court Justice Don Willett — a relatively close contest. He ended up with 50.9 percent, which turned out to be the low-water mark for Republicans on the statewide ticket.

Hutchison, at the top of the ballot, got more votes — 2,658,657 — than anyone else. Five judges without major party opponents were next in line, each getting more than 2.5 million votes. Abbott was the top vote getter in the executive branch, followed by Combs, Dewhurst, Patterson, Staples, and Jones. Perry, because of all those independents and his 39 percent plurality win, ended up with 1,714,618 votes — fewer than five statewide Democratic candidates got in their losing efforts for judicial and executive offices. The top Democratic vote getter on the statewide ballot was Judge Bill Moody, who ran against Willett and got 1,876,845 votes. The top Libertarian — Jerry Adkins — got 830,294, or 24.5 percent — in a Texas Supreme Court race against Justice David Medina. Don't laugh at those numbers: Adkins got more raw votes than gubernatorial candidates Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman.

Sen. Eliot Shapleigh, D-El Paso, easily fended off an expensive challenge from Republican Dee Margo, and that was the only battle for a spot in the upper chamber. Texans will get five new senators in January, but they were all finished with real politics before November began, either because they survived their toughest competition in March or because they faced none all year.

Some High Water in the Basement

Texas Democrats picked up five seats in the House, bring their total to 69 of that body's 150 seats. Whether that's a big enough change to force a change in leadership is debatable. But on a night when many thought only one or two seats would flip, it made the donkeys bray.

Four Republican incumbents were knocked off: Reps. Toby Goodman of Arlington, Bill Keffer of Dallas, Gene Seaman of Corpus Christi, and Martha Wong of Houston. One seat that had been held by a Republican who retired — Terry Keel of Austin — was won by a Democrat. The winners in those races, respectively: Paula Hightower-Pierson of Arlington, Allen Vaught of Dallas, Juan Garcia of Corpus Christi, Ellen Cohen of Houston, and Valinda Bolton of Austin.

A few races got chewed down to the cuticles, ending with no candidate breaking into a majority. Rep. Robby Cook, D-Eagle Lake, held off a challenge from Tim Kleinschmidt by just more than 400 votes. Democrat Joe Heflin of Crosbyton held on to former House Speaker Pete Laney's seat by less than 200 votes over Jim Landtroop in a race where the candidates were surrogates for Laney and his successor, House Speaker Tom Craddick, both of whom played fiercely in the contest. Joe Farias won Carlos Uresti's seat in San Antonio by about 900 votes over Republican George Antuna. Freshman Rep. Kirk England of Grand Prairie, who won a special election earlier this year to join the House, won his rematch against Democrat Katy Hubener by less than 300 votes. And the Hightower-Pierson v. Goodman race we mentioned above was settled by fewer than 500 votes. Democrats didn't lose an incumbent or any open seats.

Several races were on the list of things to watch and turned out lopsided. Rep. Jim McReynolds, D-Lufkin, coasted to an easy win over Republican Jody Anderson. That HD-12 race was a key target for the GOP, but their guy mustered only 42 percent of the vote. Rep. Mark Homer eased to a second win over Republican Kirby Hollingsworth in HD-3. Rep. Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles, D-Alice, held off a well-financed challenge from Republican Michael Esparza in another race targeted by GOP financiers. Rep. David Farabee, D-Wichita Falls, beat Republican Shirley Craft for the third time, getting 58 percent of the votes. Rep. Tony Goolsby, R-Dallas, fended off Democrat Harriett Miller in a closely watched race, getting 51.9 percent. Rep. Hubert Vo, D-Houston, ended up almost nine percentage points ahead of former Rep. Talmadge Heflin, in a rematch in HD-149.

Then there's a list of candidates whose races were so tight they'll be on the first target lists for the 2008 contests. They got 53 percent or less, sometimes a lot less: Rep. Chuck Hopson, D-Jacksonville; Cook; Garcia; Gonzalez Toureilles; Bolton; Joe Heflin; Hightower-Pierson; Goolsby; Vaught; Farias; England; Solomon Ortiz Jr., D-Corpus Christi; Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock; and Rep. Bill Zedler, R-Arlington. 

Will They Pull the Trigger?

With Democrats gaining five seats in the Texas House, the possibility of a race for Speaker of the House rises dramatically. But the improvement in the opposition's numbers don't make a race a certainty; Craddick isn't a political liability to most Republicans and unless it becomes risky to support him, it's risky to oppose him.

House Speaker Tom Craddick took the reins four years ago, when Republicans overwhelmed Democrats in legislative races. But his opponents have picked off some of his top lieutenants in both parties, thinning the ranks and making the survivors skittish.

With five gains in Tuesday's elections, House Democrats and a small group of Republicans are doing the math to see whether they can assemble the votes to challenge Craddick.

The new House will have 69 Democrats and 80 Republicans. One House seat is empty after the death of Glenda Dawson in September, so 75 votes would make a majority if she's not replaced before the House convenes in January.

To make a challenge viable, the Democrats need around 60 of their number to stick together, a number that accounts for Craddick loyalists in blue jerseys who don't want a change in leadership. Nearly half of the Democrats signed pledges to keep Craddick in charge for a third term. That's significant, to a point: Nothing happens to members who switch, so long as they switch to the winning side. Former House Speaker Pete Laney had well over 100 pledges the day he lost the post to Craddick. Had the challenge failed, there'd have been some spankings. It's the same now.

Republicans who want a different leader will have to find a candidate — it's still a Republican House — and 15 or more representatives from the GOP who'd risk voting against Craddick.

There's a short list of possible speaker candidates, but Craddick can easily defend his position if more than one challenger emerges. Put it another way: A challenge won't work under these circumstances — if it'll work at all — unless Craddick's opponents unite behind one candidate (see results, race for governor, 2006, for an example).

The Republicans most often mentioned as possible candidates include, in no particular order, Brian McCall of Plano, Edmund Kuempel of Seguin, Charlie Geren of Fort Worth, Jim Pitts of Waxahachie, and Warren Chisum of Pampa.

Is it for real? Only if the numbers are there and Craddick's opponents can agree on a candidate. And will they pull the trigger? It's a huge risk, especially for the Republicans in the mix. But if they've got the votes, or think they do, Craddick could have a fight on his hands.

The Frontrunner

The day after the election, when House results became clear and speculation about the consequences picked up, Craddick issued a statement making public the names of state reps who've pledged their support for his continued tenure. That's unusual, and a defensive move on his part to dampen speculation about changes at the top. We'll just quote the press release:

"Speaker Tom Craddick released the following statement this morning concerning his reelection for Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives: 'I would like to congratulate the newly elected members and incumbents on their victories. This was a tough campaign season, and they all worked hard to win their races. With that, I am pleased to announce that 109 members have signed pledge cards for my reelection as Speaker of the House. I would like to thank all of the members who have expressed their support for my reelection, and I look forward to a successful session ahead. With the elections behind us, it is time for all members to put aside our differences and work together on the issues that matter most to Texans.'"

The attachment included a list of the members who signed up (you can download a pretty copy here). It includes 79 Republicans (everyone but Tommy Merritt) and 30 of the 69 Democrats. One House seat is empty after the death of Glenda Dawson in September.

Republicans: Charles "Doc" Anderson; Jimmie Don Aycock; Leo Berman; Dwayne Bohac; Dennis Bonnen; Dan Branch; Betty Brown; Fred Brown; Bill Callegari; Warren Chisum; Wayne Christian; Byron Cook; Frank Corte, Jr.; Joe Crabb; Tom Craddick; Brandon Creighton; Myra Crownover; Drew Darby; John Davis; Dianne Delisi; Joe Driver; Rob Eissler; Gary Elkins; Kirk England; Dan Flynn; Dan Gattis; Charlie Geren; Tony Goolsby; Pat Haggerty; Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton; Kelly Hancock; Rick Hardcastle; Patricia Harless; Linda Harper-Brown; Will Hartnett; Harvey Hilderbran; Fred Hill; Charlie Howard; Bryan Hughes; Carl Isett; Jim Jackson; Delwin Jones; Jim Keffer; Phil King; Susan King; Lois Kolkhorst; Mike Krusee; Edmund Kuempel; Thomas Latham; Jodie Laubenberg; Nathan Macias; Jerry Madden; Brian McCall; Miller; Geanie Morrison; Anna Mowery; Jim Murphy; Rob Orr; John Otto; Tan Parker; Diane Patrick; Ken Paxton; Larry Phillips; Jim Pitts; Debbie Riddle; Todd Smith; Wayne Smith; John Smithee; Burt Solomons; Joe Straus; David Swinford; Robert Talton; Larry Taylor; Vicki Truitt; Corbin Van Arsdale; G.E. "Buddy" West; Beverly Woolley; William "Bill" Zedler; and John Zerwas.

Democrats: Kevin Bailey; Norma Chavez; Robby Cook; Joe Deshotel; Dawnna Dukes; Harold Dutton, Jr.; Craig Eiland; David Farabee; Ismael "Kino" Flores; Stephen Frost; Helen Giddings; Ryan Guillen; Mark Homer; Chuck Hopson; Tracy King; Eddie Lucio III; Armando Martinez; Ruth Jones McClendon; Jim McReynolds; Jose Menendez; Sid Aaron Pena; Joe Pickett; Robert Puente; Chente Quintanilla; Richard Raymond; Allan Ritter; Patrick Rose; Sylvester Turner; Mike Villarreal; and Hubert Vo.

A Protection Racket?

State representatives and reps-to-be have told Rep. Jessica Farrar, D-Houston, that they've received threatening calls from lobbyists and "from the Speaker's office" pushing them to support Craddick's bid for a third term at the helm. And she's complained officially to the Texas Ethics Commission about it, asking for an advisory opinion. As she put it in her letter to the commission:

"Currently, persons who are required to register under Chapter 305, Government Code, are contacting Members and Members-elect of the Texas House of Representatives on behalf of a named Speaker candidate and asking Members to agree to vote for the candidate because the candidate will 'put [the Member] on good committees,' 'take care of [the Member]', and 'see to it that [the Member] has the right support in two years.'

"Other comments made include statements that if the Member does not vote for the named Speaker candidate, 'we won't forget it', and 'we can make sure that you remember you made a mistake.' These calls and statements are also being made by former Members of the Texas House to Members and Members-elect."

She asks three questions. One, whether that conduct constitutes legislative bribery (offers of help and threats of punishment for official acts); two, whether she should report it to the district attorney or others; and three, whether evidence like voice mail and email messages should be turned over to the authorities.

A spokesman for Craddick, Chris Cutrone, said he's not aware of such calls being made by anyone in the speaker's offices — "Not to my knowledge" — and said Craddick won't have any further comment about it. "We're just going to leave this to the Ethics Commission."

Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Representatives

Start on Election Day, when former Rep. Rick Green, R-Dripping Springs, got into it with current Rep. Patrick Rose, D-Dripping Springs. Words were said, and then, according to witnesses, Green shoved Rose and then threw a punch. Later in the day, he walked into the sheriff's office to face assault charges.

The next day, Rep. Tracy King, D-Batesville, popped Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine, in a set-to triggered by the prospect of a Speakers' race. Gallego and others were pushing House Democrats to join a challenge to Speaker Tom Craddick, but without promoting a particular candidate. King, who has pledged his vote to Craddick, was one of several members who wasn't buying the idea, and Gallego got some people in King's district to call and add some pressure. The details are sketchy — neither representative is talking about it with reporters — but King got angry and punched Gallego for interfering with his home folks.

Spoilers' Paradise

Texas Libertarians issued a list of five races they think their candidates could spoil on Election Day. That bit followed their brags about the number of candidates they put on the ballot this year — 168, including 15 for statewide office, 25 for Congress, and 97 for the Texas Legislature.

They predicted their presence could matter big in CD-17, where U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco, is the incumbent (nope — he got 58.1 percent). And they had four Texas House races in their swing set: HD-25, where Democrat Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles of Alice is defending (she got 52.6 percent; Libertarian Edward Elmer got 5.4 percent); HD-50, now held by Democrat Mark Strama of Austin (nope — he got 61.7 percent); HD-106, where the incumbent is Republican Kirk England of Grand Prairie (yup — Gene Freeman only got 2.8 percent, but England didn't break 50 percent, and he squeaked in with a 231-vote margin); and HD-134, where Martha Wong, R-Houston, is the incumbent (nope — Wong only managed to get 43.1 percent).

So their predictions were off base, but they had the right idea. The state's most popular third party had some impact on races, and apparently siphoned votes away from Republican candidates in some contests. Lenard Nelson got 5.6 percent of the vote in the Corpus Christi race where Rep. Gene Seaman got beat; the winner, Juan Garcia, led with 48.3 percent. Rod Gibbs got 3.2 percent in the HD-17 race won by Democrat Robby Cook, who finished under 50 percent. The same thing happened in HD-85, where David Schumacher pulled 2.7 percent and Joe Heflin won; in HD-93, where Max Koch III got 3.4 percent and Paula Hightower-Pierson won; in HD-106, where Gene Freeman got 2.8 percent and Kirk England won; and in HD-118, where Libertarian James Thompson got 7.5 percent and Joe Farias won. Each of the winners got into the Legislature with less than 50 percent of the vote. With the exception of England, a Republican, all of those winners were Democrats, in a year when antipathy toward Republicans probably added to Libertarian vote and undercut the elephants. The GOP will view those as opportunities in two years, while the Democrats will have them on the defense list. And depending on the district, the folks in the major parties will be encouraging or discouraging interested Libertarians. 

The Post-Electoral Glow

Thinking about 2010 yet? Some people are. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst might open an exploratory committee for governor, headed by his chief of staff, Bruce Gibson, to lay the groundwork and to get a jump on others who might run for Gov. Rick Perry's job in four years.

Timing is still an issue. It could get underway right away, in two years, or after the session.

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who was the central figure in speculation about challenges to Perry before this last election cycle, is in the mix again. This time, if you're buying into the rumor, it's because the Democrats won the Senate and Republicans are in the minority. It's not as much fun. And Hutchison didn't promise to serve the entire six years (she did promise to serve only two terms, and then ran for a third). And you'll find advocates for other potential candidates in the GOP, including Secretary of State Roger Williams, U.S. Ambassador Tony Garza, and former Commerce Secretary Don Evans. Dewhurst is the only one we're aware of who's thinking about a startup. There are fewer than 1,470 days until that election.

More Voting Opportunities

Rep. Glenda Dawson, R-Pearland, died in September, but easily won reelection in HD-29 on the first Tuesday of November. And as soon as her place in the Texas House is declared vacant, Gov. Rick Perry can call a special election to replace her. That's important for a couple of reasons: The obvious one is that there's a legislative session in January, and Pearland needs a rep; it also raises the bar slightly in the speaker's race, since it takes 75 votes to win that contest when there are 149 members and 76 when there's one more. Republicans are hoping to carry the special election, but there'll probably be more than one in the race.

Mike O'Day announced his candidacy — along with an endorsement from Dawson's daughter, Dee Saenz. He'll likely face another Republican businessman, Randy Webber, and possibly, Democrat Anthony Dinovo, who lost to Dawson on Tuesday.

And there's a runoff ahead for U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio, and former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, in CD-23. That congressional district was redrawn this summer after the U.S. Supreme Court ordered some redistricting adjustments to Texas congressional maps. Bonilla drew a bevy of challengers, and fell a tad short of an outright win. He got 48.6 percent. Rodriguez got 19.9 percent. They'll meet in a runoff, probably next month.

Late Hits and Other Campaign Hodgepodge

Secretary of State Roger Williams can now say he's run a fake election. It was in Round Rock, a suburb north of Austin, at Hopewell Middle School, and it's the 19th time he's done it this year. That's for the kids, and for the TV cameras. The news in it: He predicted turnout would be around 36 percent, based on early voting. That's in line with voting in 2002, the last time Texas elected a governor. That year, 36.2 percent of the state's registered voters (or 29.3 percent of the state's voting age population) actually voted. In fact, turnout was low: 33.6 percent, in unofficial returns.

Early voting in the big counties was close to what it was four years ago, though it rose in some places and fell in others. In Fort Bend and Galveston counties, for instance — two of the four counties with a piece of Tom DeLay's old spot in Congress — turnout was up from four years ago. It was up slightly in Harris County, perhaps in part because of that same race. Dallas County was up a notch. Bexar rose half a percentage point. Denton rose 1.2 percentage points. And turnout was up 3 percentage points in Nueces County, where the political amusements include a noisy state rep race. Travis County's turnout was down more than a point-and-a-half, and turnout fell by four percentage points — to 7.8 percent from 11.8 percent in 2002 — in Hidalgo County.

Early voting attracted 1,074,824 people in the big 15 counties this year, as against 1,018,664 four years ago. That's a difference of 5.5 percent. Over the same time, however, the voting age population has grown by 7.2 percent. What looks like Up is actually Down.

• Ken Durrett, the former mayor of Jacksonville and a former Texas House candidate, was arrested for DWI over the weekend. That wouldn't ordinarily make it into the story lineup, except that his dad, Larry Durrett, is running for that same House seat, against Rep. Chuck Hopson, D-Jacksonville. The story broke in local media on election eve. He lost by 1,688 votes.

• Republican Jim Landtroop of Plainview — who ran against Democrat Joe Heflin for the HD-85 spot held now by Pete Laney, D-Hale Center — sounded an alarm about gambling money on the Sunday before the election. Heflin, he noted, took $2,500 from the pro-gambling Texans for Economic Development PAC during the last days of the campaign. But Landtroop's not clean himself. The folks at the Corpus Christi Greyhound track — part of the PAC he's complaining about — contributed $10,000 to the Stars Over Texas PAC in October, as did the Maxxam Inc. PAC, which is also interested in legalized gaming. Stars was one of the most generous contributors to Landtroop's campaign. The gamblers hedged their bets. And Heflin won, by 193 votes.

• We mentioned last week that the House Democratic Campaign Committee got $25,000 more than it reported receiving. Lest you think they did a bad thing, there's a timing issue. They're not required to report the last $25,000 until their next report. Unlike candidates, that PAC doesn't have to immediately report contributions it receives during the last eight days before the election. That check from the Texas Democratic Trust apparently arrived after the deadline.

• Best useless information from the results, spotted by a friend in one of the gubernatorial camps: Rick Perry lost in Haskell County, Chris Bell lost in Harris County, Carole Keeton Strayhorn lost in Travis County, Kinky Friedman lost in Bandera County (and Kerr), and James Werner lost in Travis County. What's the old joke about "the people who know them best?" None of the gubernatorial candidates won in their home county.

Power and Lightning

The Texas Association of Manufacturers, started in part to counter electric utilities' influence with Texas government, is holding an "energy summit" in Houston on November 16-17, and the Texas Lyceum will be dissecting economic development in San Antonio earlier in the week.

They've invited regulators (all three Texas Railroad Commissioners and all three Public Utility Commissioners are listed as "special guests," as is Kathleen Hartnett White, the chairwoman of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality), Houston Mayor Bill White, former federal and state regulator Pat Wood, and a passel of business people. The topics include "Issues with the electricity market in Texas," coal plants, nuclear power, natural gas and renewable energy. There's more at their website: www.manufacturetexas.org.

The Texas Lyceum — a nonpartisan group of about 100 young leaders in the state — is holding what it calls "an economic growth summit" in San Antonio on November 13-14. Their speaker list includes state leaders, academics, economists, eco devo experts and others. You can get details — including a rundown of the speakers — on the group's website. And if you're a true policy wonk, their "pre-conference journal" is available there, too.

Political People and Their Moves

Ken Welch, the funds management guru at the comptroller's office (the guy who actually does know where all the state's money is at any given time), left that agency for the Health and Human Services Commission, where he's the new budget and fiscal policy director.

Theresa Gage is leaving the Public Utility Commission after four years to take the same job — director of government relations — at ERCOT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. That's the agency that manages the electric grid that covers most of the state. She's replacing Paul Wattles, who's moving into a new job at ERCOT: managing "demand response."

Former U.S. Rep. Max Sandlin, D-Marshall, is the new co-chairman of Fleishman-Hillard's lobby shop in Washington, D.C. That's after a merger of that company's government relations branch with that of Mercury Public Affairs.

There's a new Capitol Christmas ornament, this one featuring the Goddess of Liberty that stands on top of the Capitol dome. The 2006 model — unveiled by Nadine Craddick (wife of Speaker Tom Craddick) and golfer Ben Crenshaw — is $18 at the gift shop in the Pink Building.

Quotes of the Week

Gov. Rick Perry, asked whether he'll serve a full four-year term, quoted by the Associated Press: "That's kind of up to the good Lord. He may decide he wants me doing something different and I'm out of here tomorrow. Who knows? I plan on being here working, making a difference.""

Democrat Hank Gilbert, running for agriculture commissioner, quoted by the Houston Chronicle from a get out the vote rally: "Do what Howard Dean suggested. Take off work, tomorrow's another holiday. Call in sick, call in dead, call in emotionally drained and physically fed up. And go out and get on the phones, knock on doors, give people a ride. Do everything that they've done for 20 years to beat us."

Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, who's in a runoff against U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, quoted in the San Antonio Express-News: "People vote for you because they love you or they hate the other guy. And in this case, a lot of people hate the other guy."

Hays County Election Administrator Joyce Cowan, quoted in the Austin American-Statesman after former Rep. Rick Green, R-Dripping Springs, took a swing at his replacement, Rep. Patrick Rose, D-Dripping Springs, at a polling place on Election Day: "It's been a busy polling site all day. I don't think it did anything but give the people in line something to look at."

---

Texas Weekly: Volume 23, Issue 21, 13 November 2006. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2006 by Printing Production Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 302-5703 or email biz@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 288-6598.

Nationally, Democrats won big on election night, but in Texas, the results were a little more complicated. Republicans swept the statewide positions, but lost a handful of seats in the House of Representatives, leading to speculation that Speaker Tom Craddick is vulnerable. Analyzing data, spinning results, and trying to figure out what it all means — that's what bloggers do.

* * * * *

Reaction

Perry Dorrell at Brains and Eggs was not dancing in the street, even though he's a Democrat. " . . . for that to be all the change Texans demanded in a year like the last one — to quote an obnoxious chain of Mexican restaurants — ees preety pathetic."

Sal Costello, who supported Independent candidate for governor Carole Keeton Strayhorn, tried to make her supporters feel better on his blog The Muckraker, "Only 39 out of 100 voters wanted Perry back in office. This election was the beginning of the end for Mr. Perry, and his band of looters. Think about it — 61 out of 100 voters wanted Perry fired! That ain't no mandate, that's the lamest duck ever."

Pink Dome, who's better known for his snarky and happily superficial comments, actually turned serious thinking about how national politics and state politics go hand in hand. "The dust continues to settle and we realize the domination of the Republican party in Texas has suddenly put our entire state in a position we have not known for some time — left out of this 'sea change' in political power. All of the gerrymandering that took Democrat office-holders out of office in both the state legislature and congress meant losing senior spots and chairmanships on important committees making decisions that affect Texans."

The central question will be whether Republicans lost the national election (and took some serious lumps in Texas) because they were (1) not conservative enough, or because they were (2) too conservative," Paul Burka of Texas Monthly's Burkablog wrote. "My answer would be (1) yes and (2) yes."

Evan at Rick Perry vs. The World, talking about national races, said, "This is the worst cycle for Republicans since Watergate, and yet we won't lose as much. Why? Because the nation only tilts slightly right, and when people aren't happy, then we lose. Like this year."

* * * * *

Nuts and Bolts

So how did they do it? Ryan Goodland tells how the Houston Gay, Lesbian, Bi-Sexual, and Transgender Political Caucus helped Ellen Cohen beat Rep. Martha Wong on Burnt Orange Report.

The national Latino vote is analyzed by the Willie Velasquez Southwest Voter Institute and posted on the blog Educational Equity, Politics and Policy in Texas.

* * * * *

Spidey, Superman, and Edwards?

How does U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco, keep winning in a district that's stacked against him? David Benzion at the conservative blog Lone Star Times said, "God help the Texas GOP if the Texas Democratic party can get its act together and start putting forward conservative/populist statewide candidates in the mold of (U.S. Rep.) Chet Edwards (or pre-shift to the GOP Phil Gramm)."

* * * * *

Speakers Race

Burka thinks that it's time for Speaker Craddick to resign. "He is losing the war. The body armor he supplies to his troops in political warfare — money money money — is ineffective against the enemy's ideological fervor for better public schools . . . He is responsible for the largest casualty rate his troops have suffered in decades."

Vince Leibowitz of Capitol Annex talks about the chances of a few possible speaker candidates in one post (including Rep. Senfronia Thompson, Rep. Lois Kolkhorst, and Rep. Brian McCall, among others) and his disgust with seeing certain Democrats on Craddick's pledge list. "I simply cannot stomach seeing safe Democrats on this list," he said. "I know they will say they are on it because they don't want to piss the speaker off and have their districts punished as a result, but the fact of the matter is their districts are being punished enough just by Craddick being in power."

Eileen Smith of In The Pink Texas quipped, "Pledge cards are an ancient House tradition, kind of like sleeping with staffers. They are also non-binding commitments, kind of like sleeping with staffers. You know where Pete Laney's pledges got him? An office in the Capitol Extension."

* * * * *

Bi-Partisan World

After his win was assured, Gov. Rick Perry said, "When we walk off this stage tonight, we leave behind past acrimony and partisan rivalry for a greater good, which is to build a Texas of limitless possibility."

Reacting to the governor, Charles Kuffner at Off the Kuff said, "It might help if you cleaned up the blood from the 2003 redistricting sessions as a first step. Perry has governed with an iron fist from the time that the Republicans took over the State House, and I'll believe he means this when I see it. He can talk all he wants about things like higher education, but unless his idea of reforms comes from the same planet as Democrats', it's as meaningless as phrases like 'school finance reform'."

* * * * *

Mother'$ Milk of Politics

A Houston-area television station has been reporting how representatives and senators spend campaign cash on cars, Austin apartments, and sports events. John Cobarruvius at Bay Area Houston, who's been dogging Rep. John Davis for his officeholder expense reports, followed up by saying, "It is unfortunate that the purchases highlighted on CH2 are not illegal, but should be. Someone ought to dig deep into ALL State Representatives and Senators and file as many ethics violations as necessary to clean up Austin. And someone should be filing bills to stop the $2800/month apartments, BMWs, and Houston Astros tickets."

* * * * *

The 80th Lege

"And just as a hangover follows a beer binge, so does the convening of the Texas Legislature follow a fall election," Kuffner said.

According to Scott Henson at Grits for Breakfast, "I have no way to gauge its accuracy, but I heard a staffer's rumor that more than 1,400 bills have already been sent by legislators to the Texas Legislative Council, which drafts bills for pre-filing."

Let the work begin.

Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Comptroller-elect Susan Combs have smoked the peace pipe, and Combs will have a transition office in the agency's headquarters in early December, according to folks on both sides. She's already at work on revenue estimates, taxes, and the transfer of the agency's tax courts to another agency.

Strayhorn's run for governor and Combs' early entry into the comptroller race (and her endorsement of another term for Gov. Rick Perry) strained relations until after the election. Strayhorn's predecessor, John Sharp, made his staff available to Strayhorn and her opponent, Democrat Paul Hobby, for agency info during the 1998 race and then let Strayhorn's crew in right after the elections. The going was a little weird this time, but everybody's settled in.

Combs doesn't plan an overhaul of the agency, but admits "everybody makes changes" and she'll make some. She's reading up on the revenue estimate — delivering her official guess about state income will be one of her first official acts when the Lege gets started in January.

She's preparing an interagency agreement that'll move the hearings division — which decides tax cases — to the State Offices of Administrative Hearings and out of the comptroller's office. She says it's a conflict of interest to have a tax collector who also judges tax cases. The State Auditor's Office came to that conclusion in a report that was also critical of Strayhorn's acceptance of campaign contributions from people with tax business before her agency. (Rep. John Otto, R-Dayton, says he'll file legislation that'll make the transfer a matter of law and not just a contract deal.)

And she's preparing for a school finance relapse as lawmakers tinker with the business tax bill they passed last spring under pressure from the Texas Supreme Court.

The comptroller's office is mailing out tax surveys to 4,000 businesses; they expect around 3,400 to come back. Those are fake tax returns; the companies are being asked to fill them out but not to pay any taxes this time, just to give the state a feel for whether its new tax bill will bring in the amount of money it's supposed to. Those make-believe returns are due in mid-February, and Combs and staff will have to turn out a report for lawmakers before April 1 (If you want to make an April Fools joke, now's the time.) And she'll wait for legislative signals before she makes final decisions about the rules that describe how taxpayers should figure their new taxes.

Combs wants to beef up electronic reporting at the agency, so taxpayers can file more returns by computer. She thinks that'll be more efficient, but she also plans to ask lawmakers not to impose a 10 percent cut on the budget before she gets started and knows what's going on there. "I'm asking them not to start us out with a haircut . . . not to decimate us next year," she says.

She's not in a hurry to ask for reinstatement of the performance reviews that were taken from the agency last session and moved to the Legislative Budget Board: "I think they're pretty happy with it there." She wants to expand the agency's analysis of spending in state government and on economic development issues.

Combs opened her own agriculture department to Commissioner-elect Todd Staples this week. She said then-Commissioner Rick Perry did that for her when she won in 1998, even adding her top-aides-to-be to his payroll. She'll do the same for Staples if he asks.

State spending on school tax relief could force legislators to trample constitutional limits on budget growth next year, vexing conservatives who want both tax relief and limits on government growth.

The school tax relief package approved last spring increases state spending to take some pressure off local school spending. But the new state spending — in the neighborhood of $4 billion annually — will probably force budgeteers to choose between program cuts and a vote to increase spending faster than the state economy is growing.

"If you add the tax cuts to the state budget, it's almost certain we will have to deal with the cap," says Senate Finance Chairman Steve Ogden, R-Bryan. He and others in the budget business are still wrestling with it.

It's a weird deal, more a problem of politics than of arithmetic.

The state's running a budget surplus and will likely have all the money it needs to maintain programs and accommodate the new responsibilities for public schools. It's not like Texas government is broke. And the cap on spending doesn't make exceptions for this kind of load-shifting from local to state governments. The increase in spending isn't due to wild program growth, but to the state's decision to pay a larger share for a public school system that's already in place.

Conservatives have pushed for years to get a cap on government spending. In fact, proposed state-imposed caps on local government spending will be one of the main events in next year's legislative session. The state has never been successfully fenced in by the limits, and lawmakers haven't been forced to cut the fences.

This time, there may be no way around it. And in spite of Democratic gains on Election Day, this is still a Republican Legislature. And Republicans have, for the most part, fueled the push for caps (Rep. Carl Isett, R-Lubbock, has filed a constitutional amendment that would impose a spending cap on every state dollar in the budget — not just the discretionary spending). 

The Legislative Budget Board will meet after Thanksgiving to set two figures. First, they'll choose from five estimates of the expected growth in personal income over the next two years. That'll be the constitutional limit on increases in discretionary state spending. Then they'll peg the discretionary number from the current budget, setting a base for the calculation. Multiply the two numbers and you'll get the dollar limit for discretionary spending in the next budget.

Usually at a moment like this, the Legislature can pick a big growth number and easily stay under the cap when they fold in things like increases in public school attendance, health and human service caseloads, prison populations, and all that jazz.

This time, they spent almost all of the growth money on school finance. That bill brought them to within $80 million of the cap last spring. In a $138.2 billion two-year state budget, that's pocket change. The same sort of math will prevail in the next two-year budget. When they add regular growth — prisons, kids, health and welfare — to their commitment to spend state money for local school tax relief, budgeteers think they'll have to bust the cap.

One idea under consideration: Voting out a two-year state budget that doesn't include the new spending for school tax relief, then voting on a separate bill that includes both that spending and legislative permission to bust the cap. Lawmakers would be able to defend the high growth rate as a consequence of lowering local school tax rates.

Another one: Finding a new definition of "discretionary spending" that meets the constitutional requirements and that doesn't include the school finance money in the calculation. Budget folk and lawyers we've talked with are skeptical on this one.

Here's the thing: If you elect them, they'll start doing that government stuff. Most bills don't pass, but they're all alive at the start of things, and members have started the biennial filing of ideas they hope will become state law. A sampling:

• From Rep. Frank Corte, R-San Antonio, comes proposed laws that would allow military personnel to receive absentee ballots by email; allow vouchers in large school districts in Texas; limit governments' eminent domain rights; and require pharmacies to warn women via large public signs that "morning after" drugs designed to end pregnancies will do what they're designed to do and then to keep records of the customers' names and dates they bought the drugs.

• Rep. Richard Raymond, D-Laredo, proposed a constitutional amendment that would bar the use of public money for private school vouchers. He'd leave the matter to voters.

• Sen. Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa, D-McAllen, wants to require defibrillators at high school athletic events. Rep. Hubert Vo, D-Houston, filed similar legislation.

• El Paso Rep. Joe Pickett, who's been warring with the state's highway agency, filed legislation that would abolish the appointed Texas Transportation Commission and replace it with an elected Transportation Commissioner. Industry people and their representatives would be ineligible to run.

• State Rep. Debbie Riddle, R-Tomball, and Sen. Bob Deuell, R-Greenville, were among several lawmakers who raced to file versions of "Jessica's law," which opens sex offenders to the threat of the death penalty (Riddle) or to longer prison terms (Deuell) and tracks some of them with GPS devices that broadcast their whereabouts. Sen. Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, filed a package of six bills aimed at sex offenders. It includes a 25-year prison term for "continuous sexual abuse of a child," and requires high-risk offenders who've served their time to wear GPS monitors.

• Immigration legislation got the headlines on Day One and though it's a hot talking issue, we're not aware of any legislative elections that turned on it. Maybe in two years. Burt Solomons, R-Carrollton, wants proof of citizenship before the state grants licenses or permits. Rep. Dianne White Delisi, R-Temple, wants state agencies to report what they spend on "unlawful immigrants." Leo Berman, R-Tyler, wants to deny state benefits to U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants, a position that tracks the Texas GOP platform, which recommends denying citizenship to those kids.

• Solomons also would create a state task force to look at various taxes to make sure they're being used for what they were intended to be used for.

• Raising the minimum wage in Texas by $2 (to $7.15) in two steps and then allowing four increases tied to inflation. That's authored by Sen. Rodney Ellis, D-Houston.

• Rep. Elliott Naishtat, D-Austin, would extend the school property tax cuts to elderly Texans whose taxes were already frozen (and who weren't included in the cuts). Another of his bills would require all substantive votes on legislation be recorded and posted on the Internet. And he'd allow people denied Medicaid or Food Stamp benefits to go to court for "judicial review" of those decisions.

• Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, would limit the number of students admitted to colleges for being in the top ten percent of their high school classes, freeing the schools to admit more students who don't make that mark.

• Sen. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo, would make textbooks tax-free at the beginnings of school semesters. She's got an election law change that would require political action committees to disclose contributions of $1,000 or more during the last week before elections.

• Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Edinburg, filed legislation that would require auditable paper records wherever electronic voting machines are used. There's another version of the same thing from Rep. David Leibowitz, D-San Antonio.

• Rep. Mark Strama, D-Austin, proposed a constitutional amendment creating a redistricting commission that would consist of appointed non-officeholders who'd draw the lines for congressional and legislative districts after the next U.S. census.

• Rep. Rafael Anchia, D-Dallas, wants to legalize same-day voter registration in Texas, allowing Texas adults to register to vote on their way into the booths on Election Day. So does another Dallas Democrat, Robert Alonzo, who filed a similar bill.

Former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, got labor's endorsement for his runoff against U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio, in CD-23. Rodriguez booted it the first time, telling a labor gathering he was getting out of the race. The AFL-CIO endorsed Albert Uresti, and then Rodriguez got back in. Uresti was culled in the first round and now labor's back with Rodriguez. The election date isn't set yet, but pencil in December 12. (That's also a likely date for the HD-29 race to replace the late Rep. Glenda Dawson, R-Pearland.)

• Department of Corrections: We spelled Randy Weber's name with an extra B last week (and if you're looking for info about him on the web, do it both ways, because we weren't the first to make the error). He's a former Pearland City Council member and the second Republican to enter the race to replace Rep. Glenda Dawson, who died in September and then won reelection in November. He walks in with endorsements from Rep. Robert Talton, R-Pasadena, and U.S. Rep. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, R-Houston (she won what's left of Tom DeLay's term). Mike O'Day, who got in last week, has Dawson's family behind him, as well as former Rep. Tom Uher, D-Bay City, who got knocked out by Dawson after redistricting.

With just one more hearing ahead of them, Tom Pauken and his group of Rick Perry-appointed property tax crusaders are getting ready to hash out recommendations for a report they'll give to the governor and the Legislature sometime next month.

Their sticking points have been set for some time. First are the splits inside and outside the Task Force on Appraisal Reform over whether to impose caps on increases in property appraisals or, alternatively, on growth in revenue at the local government level. Councils and boards and commissions could exceed the caps only with voter approval. Pauken is talking (a bit vaguely) about caps based on a fixed percentage, or indexed to some less arbitrary numbers, like population and consumer prices. Secondly, there are strong feelings each way about whether to disclose the sales prices of properties.

(A footnote from the past: The federal agency regulating savings and loans in the 1980s concluded that one reason the S&L mess was worst in Texas was because sales prices weren't disclosed here and it was easier for everybody to lie about what their deals were worth.)

Pauken still likes an idea — floated several weeks ago at a Realtor convention — of coupling a local option increases in sales taxes to cuts in local property taxes. A half-cent increase in the tax — the state would have to give cities the right to add it — would offset increases in homestead exemptions and lower property tax rates.

He implies there's some agreement on including that one, though he says the task force members haven't voted yet. They'll likely include changes in county appraisal boards, adding some elected folks to make them more accountable and "broadening" them to include more outsiders. Cities and counties have made their point about unfunded mandates from the state, and Pauken's group might take their side in that fight. They'll loosen the state's control over local appraisals, and they want to split the "prosecutor and jury" functions in county appraisal districts.

He says voters and property owners don't know who to blame when things are awry with their property taxes, and he hopes to clear that up. He wants reforms that'll make it more difficult for local officials to hide tax or spending increases in the algebraic muck of the appraisal system.

The biggest opponents are — and have been — local governments. They say the state is violating the idea of local control, and is trying to leash cities and counties in ways it won't leash state government itself. And they say the state is trying to squeeze them, imposing new costs and new limits on revenue at the same time.

Pauken agrees to some extent. He doesn't thing the state mandates are fair, but he thinks caps could force some "self-imposed discipline" on government officials. "It definitely would impact local government spending decisions," he says. "I don't think they're hurting, though. It would impose greater discipline on local governments and force them to prioritize." Local officials would still be able to argue for higher spending, but they'd have to convince voters.

Pauken is relying in part on ideas from two legislators elected on promises to cut property taxes. The local option sales tax came from Sen. Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler. The changes to the comptroller's property tax apparatus are from Rep. John Otto, R-Dayton.

Eltife says he started with the idea that the first round of tax relief was too small to give voters the warm fuzzies, and he didn't think appraisal caps as proposed would do it, either.

His idea was to tie in local options, sales taxes, and homestead exemptions. He thinks sales taxes are fairer as long as they don't apply to essential goods and services. Homestead exemptions irritate businesses because they give relief to homeowners at the expense of commercial property owners. If they're balanced, though, Eltife sees it as a better way to get relief to homeowners. "My concern about the tax bill was that most people in my district did not get relief... you've got to drive the rate down low enough for them to feel it, and this found didn't do that," Eltife says.

Eltife, one of the new Senate's five former mayors (Robert Nichols, Kel Seliger, Florence Shapiro, and Kirk Watson), says appraisal caps will become a floor for some local governments, who'll raise taxes in years when they don't have to so they won't be shorted in years when they need more than the caps allow. He's an advocate of sales price disclosure and suggests tying property values to the actual sales price plus some factor for inflation.

But the sales tax swap is his centerpiece. He thinks it would speed up tax relief. "I thought we needed to cut the [school property] tax in half and in an immediate manner..." he says. "By the time we're three years out, they're not going to have much relief left."

Otto used to be on his county appraisal board and says the current setup with the state forces local appraisers to overestimate the value of their properties. The state comptroller does studies on local property values around the state and orders corrections when their numbers are more than five percent different from what's on the local books. That margin of error is too tight, Otto says, and forces local appraisers to err on the high side. That costs local school districts under school finance formulas (it saves the state money, though) and can cost appraisers their jobs. He'd increase the allowable difference to +/- 10 percent.

Otto's not crazy about sale price disclosure, saying it could take homeowners "from leap to creep" — replacing incremental increases with sudden ones in areas where values jump. "I don't care how fair it is — they're not going to be happy," he says of homeowners. He just wants to get "a level of trust and care" that's not in the current system.

The last hearing is in Austin next week. Pauken says he'll ask the panel to vote on recommendations next month, with a report to follow.

Officially, now: Kent Hance is the chancellor of the Texas Tech University System. He's a former congressman, Texas railroad commissioner, lobbyist, and an unsuccessful candidate for U.S. Senate and governor of Texas. He lost the Senate race in a Democratic primary in 1984, then lost Republican gubernatorial primaries in 1986 and 1990. And he's the only guy who ever won an election against George W. Bush. The school will let him maintain his partial ownership of a hazardous waste company in Andrews County, and he'll be allowed to serve on private company boards while he's at Tech.

Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio, is now a state senator. He won the special election to replace Frank Madla — who resigned this summer after losing the primary election to Uresti — and was sworn in over the weekend. Uresti also won the full term. He'll take that oath in January, with just a few weeks seniority over the other four senators in the freshman class.

Phil Gamble, a lawyer who worked for Kent Hance at the Texas Railroad Commission, is joining the law firm Hance just left. Gamble will work on legislative and regulatory issues for Hance Scarborough Wright Woodward & Weisbart. Hance, as you know, will be off running Texas Tech.

The state's two U.S. senators are now in the minority, but they got promotions within the GOP after the elections. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is now chairing the Republican Policy Committee. Sen. John Cornyn will start his fifth year in the Senate as vice chairman of the Republican Conference, a post that was held until now by Hutchison. 

Celinda Provost moves from the House, where she's been chief of staff to Rep. Allan Ritter, D-Nederland, to the Senate, where she'll have that title in the offices of Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin.

Jeff Burdette's the new director of government affairs for the Texas Cable and Telecommunications Association. He's most recently been the legislative director for state Sen. Mike Jackson, R-La Porte.

Damon Withrow will be the new government relations director at the Public Utility Commission after four years with Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands. He was legislative director for Williams, and moves at the end of the month. Jason Baxter, already with the senator, will take over Withrow's job there.

Tom McCarty is leaving the House Committee on Public Health — he was chief clerk there under Rep. Dianne White Delisi, R-Temple — to head government relations for the Texas Workforce Commission.

Appointments: Gov. Rick Perry named Lyndel Williams of Lexington to his Criminal Justice Advisory Council. Williams is training director for the Texas Association Against Sexual Assault, where he's a co-worker of First Lady Anita Perry... the Guv named Gerardo "Jerry" Garcia, CEO of Hacienda Construction in Corpus Christi, to the Commission on State Emergency Communications, which oversees 9-1-1 and poison control centers in the state.