One of the rules of political reporting: Don't predict the future.

We'll start by saying we don't know who is going to win the race for speaker next week.

But we can say that it's not over yet. Stripped to the basics, what you have here are two competing assertions. Tom Craddick says he has more than enough votes to win election to a third term as the House's presiding officer. Jim Pitts says he's got enough votes to "force a change in the leadership of the House." We and others might have asked him whether that means he can beat Craddick, but he didn't answer questions after making a statement to reporters and others at his own press conference.

Pitts — after only one week in the contest — won the support of Brian McCall, R-Plano, who got all this noise started by declaring himself a candidate a few days before Christmas.

McCall couldn't get to the 75 votes needed to win election. When Pitts got in, he was trying to win votes of Republicans who aren't happy with Craddick but who didn't want to sign on with McCall, whose voters were predominantly Democrats.

Pitts and McCall got together and decided McCall couldn't win. McCall endorsed Pitts, hoping the supporters he'd attracted would join those in the Pitts camp to make a majority in the House.

Word got out, like it does. (Ben Franklin: "Three may keep a secret, if two of them are dead.") Pitts called a press conference, announcing that he and McCall would have a statement.

He announced it 23 hours in advance of the press conference. Had they announced a press conference in, say, an hour, the press would have jumped to the conclusion that Pitts had the election won and that he was ready to make the sort of announcement Craddick made four years ago, or Pete Laney made 14 years ago — the one where a speaker candidate stands in front of well over half the House members and says the game is over.

If you call a press conference a full day in advance, some gears begin to turn. It looks like you're trying to stampede the last few voters you need by telling them it's a done deal and they'd better sign up or face political purgatory or maybe even hell. It gives the competition a full day to work on questionable votes, to set up quickie smear campaigns, and to tell that same handful of skittish voters that you're just trying to spook them and they'd better sign up or face all the bad stuff. And it forces you to go ahead with your press conference even if you don't have anything to say. To do otherwise could lose you some critical momentum, with opponents and lobsters and the media all saying you had to call it off because your number was somewhere south of the required 75.

Pitts got stuck with the news-less conference-less news conference. He and McCall were the only legislators in the crowded appropriations committee room.

McCall started, talking about why some legislators want change and meandering around to his support for Pitts, which was already old news. He got off a good line, as usual: "Jim Pitts is not my first choice." He said the election of a speaker ought to be an internal thing — a reference, apparently, to members getting calls from lobbyists and other outsiders telling them how they should vote. He said he favors a secret ballot for the speaker election on Tuesday (McCall has only pre-filed one bill; HB 132 would require record votes on most legislative actions, including "the appointment or election of a legislative officer or other public official"). He said the challengers can't do the normal thing, showing up in a roomful of legislators supporting them, for fear of what might result: "In this case, you can't do that, because the pressures and the threats and the arm-twisting are too big."

Pitts wanted to make three points: One, that he's got the experience for the job; two, that he's a "very proud Republican" but also can work with Democrats; and three, that he wants to push a higher standard of ethical behavior in the House. He singled out the practice of some committee chairs letting lobbyists pay for food for committee members and their staffs during sessions.

When they were done, a spokeswoman for Craddick (who had sidestepped reporters at two events during the day) said he wouldn't be issuing any new lists, but said three members have moved from supporting challengers to supporting him. Reps. Jodie Laubenberg, R-Parker; Ken Paxton, R-McKinney; and Debbie Riddle, R-Tomball, are all back in the Craddick camp.

Exactly How They Said It

Politicians are more careful with words than most writers. They're cautious of the traps set when they open their mouths, and how those can spring shut months or weeks or days later. So look at what McCall and Pitts said about the outcome of the speaker's race. Did they call it, or would most of these quotes stand up if the incumbent won and merely changed his style?

McCall: "We have adequate support to change the way the Texas House is operated."

McCall, on not listing members who support Pitts: "We're not at the finish line. So we will work on our own time."

Pitts: "As of last night and today, we had more than enough votes to bring a change in leadership to the Texas House and a change in Texas. . . Members do not feel they could openly declare their support because they would face retribution for doing so."

On listing supporters: "I told you that I will not play the list game in this campaign and that has not changed. . . I told you I would not put a member in jeopardy, that I would not reveal names of support. But I guarantee you, the race is over."

On the only poll that counts: "If the speaker wants to release a list of names today, tomorrow, or the next day, he can do that. That's his prerogative. But I promise you, many of the members he's listed as supporters will not be voting for Tom Craddick on Tuesday when the roll is called next week. And that tally — the one taken on the floor of the Texas House — is the only one that really matters."

Finally, the only line where Pitts actually  had himself in the House's high chair: "As speaker, I look forward to working with all the other 149 members of the Texas House. . . we'll see you next Tuesday."

Chasing Squirrels

The challenge to House Speaker Tom Craddick is the first real race for legislative leadership since Sens. Bill Ratliff and David Sibley faced off after the general elections in 2000 that put Gov. George W. Bush in the White House and Lt. Gov. Rick Perry in the Governor's Mansion.

The Senate was in Republican hands. Both of the leading contenders were Republicans. Outsiders kibitzed and chattered without really knowing what was going on inside. And the race went to a floor vote in spite of running predictions from the chattering class and other gasbags who said it wouldn't.

Ratliff won a close race, unanimously. That's always the way. See the result — a vote one way or the other — then ask for unanimous consent. That's a way of protecting members (at least in public) who supported the loser.

But until the votes were actually counted, it wasn't clear to anyone in the room how things would turn out. The unusual challenge to Craddick — this just doesn't happen much in Texas politics — is just as uncertain.

Ratliff got there because he won most of the Democrats to his side. He put Sen. Rodney Ellis, D-Houston, in charge of finance, and that appointment spurred conservative Republicans to revolt against Ratliff when it came time to elect Perry's successor two years later. Ratliff and then Sibley and then Greg Abbott all got out of the way after initial efforts to win a full term, and David Dewhurst won his first term as the Senate's head guy. That's a cautionary tale for Craddick's remaining challenger, Jim Pitts. Challengers to Craddick start with more support from Democrats than from Republicans, a crack in the foundation that — should Craddick fall — could come back to haunt his successor.

The experience and most of the outside GOP apparatus — such as it is — belongs to Craddick in this race. But his enemies have been successfully sniping at his supporters and some of his lieutenants. Ron Wilson and Talmadge Heflin fell two years ago, taking out one of Craddick's most influential Democrats and his Republican Appropriations Committee chairman. Democrats picked up a seat in that first election cycle. This time, they picked up six seats (including one in a special election last spring). Three ranking members fell before the general election. Public Education Chairman Kent Grusendorf of Arlington lost the GOP primary. Democrat Vilma Luna of Corpus Christi won in March and would have won in November, but dropped out last summer, giving up spots on three powerful committees to join the lobby. Al Edwards, D-Houston, lost his seat and his chairmanship in the Democratic primary. Those don't include the races that flipped seats from the Republican to the Democratic column.

Opposing a sitting legislative leader is risky. But a speaker is supposed to offer safe haven to come election time, protecting members and obliging them to their protector. Less effective protection lowers the obligation. And Craddick's side hasn't won many "punitive" elections; the risk of opposition is low. For some members who don't have powerful positions, there's no political reason to remain loyal to the current leader. The conservatives come after Republicans who don't back Craddick. The liberals go after Democrats who do support Craddick, and general election voters are in a vaguely blue mood that the Republicans didn't offset this year. Members are insecure about it.

Craddick has 40 committees to appoint. He lost nine chairs to retirement and defeat this year, and ten vice chairs (there's some double-counting in there because of people who held two positions and left) to defeat, resignation and retirement. He lost some more after the elections were over.

When Brian McCall pulled the trigger on his challenge a couple of days before Christmas, Craddick lost four more chairs, who decided to give up their current gigs to support someone else. One — Appropriations Chairman Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie — decided to give up the House's most powerful committee job to challenge the guy who gave it to him (McCall later dropped out and pledged to support Pitts). In addition to Pitts, three members declined to sign a letter from chairmen supporting Craddick: Craig Eiland, D-Galveston, Pensions & Investments; Allan Ritter, D-Nederland, Economic Development; and Robert Talton, R-Pasadena, Urban Affairs.

Challengers haven't made the names of their supporters public. Craddick did, twice, and in a way that made it look like he was standing on one of the icebergs Al Gore is so worried about.

After the election, he issued a list of 109 members he said had signed cards pledging their support for a third term in the high chair for Craddick. That was a defensive move, designed to quell talk of a challenge. And with nobody declaring a challenge, it looked smart. But McCall filed papers declaring himself a candidate as the holidays began. After McCall filed, Craddick released another list. This one had 84 names on it along with a statement that he'd checked with House members who wanted to strongly reaffirm their support.

One of the 84 — Pitts — announced his challenge to Craddick a few hours later, making that second, shrunken list look shaky. And any list is wobbly, because legislators lie about who they're supporting. If everyone is telling the truth, there are about 175 people in the House. That 's what the votes claimed officially and unofficially by the candidates add up to, more or less.

This is a rare type of election — outside of high school — where the candidates actually know all of the voters and have some information about the likes and dislikes and weaknesses and grudges and favors that will influence their support. And knowing all of those things makes everyone skittish about claiming victory and putting names to it.

Craddick's list gave Pitts and McCall access to better information than the speaker himself possessed. They know who's promised to them, and they know who's promised to Craddick. He's not sure about their list, and they're not offering assistance. He can only assume everyone who's not on his list is against him. And he knows — this is always true in these elections — that some of the people who are on his list could flake.

It takes 75 votes to win, but the candidates have to determine who's honest and who's not, and under what circumstances. The day Craddick announced he had the votes to become speaker four years ago, then-Speaker Pete Laney had well over 100 pledge cards (he released them before Craddick's announcement). And when Laney won in 1993, he had more than 80 votes in hand but his opponent, Jim Rudd, didn't think that number was a real one.

What McCall was Selling, Pitts has Adopted

Brian McCall says he decided to challenge House Speaker Tom Craddick because "a large number of House members want to get behind someone who will try to give every member a voice in this process."

That number wasn't large enough before now.

He says the election of the next speaker of the House is about process — and not policy — about how the House is run and who steers legislation and ideas. "The speaker should be in the background with the House in the foreground," he says. "This is about empowering members."

The current way of doing things, he says, has dashed reelection hopes of members of both parties who were in what ought to have been safe seats. It's resulted in turnover that wouldn't have happened otherwise, according to McCall. And he implies that it's because the House's current leadership has put members in harm's way and then offered no protection.

He says the election of a speaker isn't about the philosophy of the person in the job — "Jim Pitts and I and Tom Craddick are not different on politics at all" — but about the way the House is run. He sidesteps a question about what the election might mean to people outside the House, saying he's been spending his time on the phone with members and not with the public. But he says voters aren't served by a system that shuts out some members and by extension, the people they represent.

"If all of us represent 150,000 people and some are in the penalty box. . . there's nothing in the Constitution that says anything about penalty boxes," he says.

He thinks legislation should come from the bottom of the House — the membership — instead of from the office of the speaker. Craddick manages legislation instead of leaving that to the members and their committees, he says. And lobbyists, according to McCall, should have to make their arguments to members instead of lobbying only the speaker and leaving it to him and his staff to tell legislators what to do. "If bills are really that good, you shouldn't have to twist arms to get them to pass," he says.

Any challenge to Craddick starts with a group of four- to five-dozen Democrats and then requires the votes of a couple dozen Republicans to make a majority. One criticism for challengers from Craddick supporters is that they'll have to answer to those Democrats.

McCall says the race isn't over yet — and so the vote total isn't known, much less the ultimate mix of elephants and donkeys behind the winner. He says the proportion of Democrats and Republicans on committees — and in committee chairmanships — should be proportional to their membership in the House regardless of who elects a speaker. And in a flourish of spin, he says a challenger who relies on Democrats would have to move to the right to get a majority on a big vote or a constitutional amendment. Craddick, whose base is on the right, would have to move to the left to get votes. "To get 100 votes would take a coalition-type leadership" no matter who is in the chair, he says.

Before he dropped out of the race, he was hoping that the contest would end over before the House assembles for its regular session next week: "I would hope to settle this before then, to protect all the women and children and guests from having to watch."

Number Three

When Pitts joined the contest, he looked a little kooky. He was the third candidate trying to get votes. House Speaker Tom Craddick was seeking reelection. Rep. Brian McCall, R-Plano, was challenging. Rep. Senfronia Thompson, D-Houston, dropped her bid to support McCall.

Pitts says he got in because Craddick's support is primarily from Republicans and McCall's was predominantly from Democrats. He thinks he's the candidate that can unify the House. "There's an impression that the Democratic caucus has a candidate and that the Republican caucus has a candidate. We need someone who can put that together."

He said he had been getting calls from Republicans and Democrats who wanted another alternative and he started calling members over the New Year's weekend to solicit votes. He isn't collecting pledge cards:  "I've talked to members who signed cards for Tom Craddick and Brian McCall and Senfronia Thompson."

He didn't have anything bad to say about anybody, but said he'd told both of the other candidates he didn't think they could win the backing of a majority of the House. McCall finally bought that argument and joined him.

Flotsam & Jetsam

• In HD-29, Mike O'Day and Randy Weber advanced to round two — a special election that's been set for January 16 by Gov. Rick Perry (that's a week after the vote for speaker). The winner will be a Republican: O'Day finished in front, with 47.9 percent of the votes, followed by Weber at 28.1 percent, Anthony DiNovo at 22.4 percent and John Gorman at 1.6 percent. Everybody but DiNovo is a Republican, and all four claim Pearland as home. The spread between the top two was 1,444 votes out of 7,320 cast. Full results, if you're interested, are online at the Texas Secretary of State's website. The winner will replace the late Rep. Glenda Dawson, R-Pearland.

• Susan Combs took the oath of office in the first few minutes of the New Year, which allowed her to authorize some sprucing of the executive offices at the Comptroller of Public Accounts. She's getting rid of John Sharp's Aggie maroon carpet — it's shot, after 16 years of traffic — in favor of a color she calls Wheat. "It was cheap," she said.

• Todd Staples was sworn in as the state's 11th commissioner of agriculture by Texas Supreme Court Justice Wallace Jefferson. Judges generally have low name ID with voters, and apparently with others. House Speaker Tom Craddick introduced Jefferson as "Warren."

• The Legislative Budget Board postponed a meeting where lawmakers will set a constitutional cap on spending they intend to break later this year. Their plan to spend state tax money to lower local school property taxes forces them to choose between budget cuts they really don't want to make, on one hand, and a vote to increase spending faster than the economy is growing, on the other. They'll meet January 11.

• The race for speaker has been a blogger's paradise. We sampled some of their takes (as we do every week) in Out There.

Combs Hires Up

Comptroller Susan Combs picked Martin Hubert — who was her number two at the Department of Agriculture — to be deputy comptroller. That's a constitutional position, and he was sworn in by a notary as the holidays came to a close.

The first rumors about this were correct, as it turns out: Hubert's name has been in the mix for the deputy comptroller gig since it became apparent Combs would likely be the next comptroller — well before Election Day.

Hubert left the ag department earlier this year to become a commissioner at the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. He was general counsel to the late Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock before joining Combs at the ag department in 1999. He was a federal government liaison for Texas A&M University, and worked on the state Senate's Natural Resources Committee before that. Hubert's a graduate of Texas A&M, St. Mary's Law School, and has a master's degree in federal tax law from Georgetown University. Gov. Rick Perry appointed Hubert to the TCEQ on September 1. He'll replace Billy Hamilton, who worked for three comptrollers and held a couple of private sector jobs before leaving state government earlier this month.

A few days later, Combs named more of her top staff. New (and old) faces at the comptroller's office include a group from TDA, one who'll be serving his fifth comptroller, and a couple from outside. Combs made Martin Cherry, who started at the agency when Robert Calvert was comptroller, her general counsel.

Several top spots will be filled by people who worked for her at the Department of Agriculture; others by folks who'll be working for Combs for the first time:

• Delane Caesar, who did marketing and promotion at TDA, will be director of public outreach and strategies.

• Victor Gonzalez, who ran administrative services and technology at TDA, will be director of innovation and chief technology officer.

• Raette Smith Hearne will be director of administration, a title she had at TDA.

• Gilberto Mendoza, TDA's internal auditor, will do that same job at the comptroller's office.

• Lisa Minton, who left the comptroller's office to be Combs' chief of staff at TDA, will return as director of research and analysis.

• Allen Spelce will be the new director of communications, a post he held at TDA. He's another former comptroller employee who's coming back.

• Trey Powers will be a legislative liaison for the comptroller, a post he held at Ag.

• Robert Wood, who ran rural economic development at Ag, will be director of local government assistance and economic development.

• R.J. DeSilva Gooneratne, until recently a TV newscaster in Austin, will be the agency's spokesman.

• Patricia Vojack, who worked for Sen. Kyle Janek, R-Houston, will be director of legislative affairs.

• Marty De Leon, most recently at the Texas Association of School Boards, will be a legislative liaison for Combs.

Political People and Their Moves

Gov. Rick Perry bestowed some jobs and titles over the holidays: Alfredo Rodriguez, from his campaign office, will join the government shop as director of community affairs; Kris Heckmann is Perry's Senate liaison; Chris Cronn will be his House liaison; and Cassie Brown is his new legislative assistant. Those last three will work for former Sen. Ken Armbrister, who came on to run Perry's legislative office.

Nick James, who worked for Armbrister (for 13 years) and Bob Bullock and Lindon Williams and Bill Moore, is going to make his way as a lobbyist now that Armbrister's out of the Senate.

Robert Peeler, chief of staff to Sen. Mike Jackson, R-La Porte, has opened a lobby shop and signed up some utility, beer and pharmaceutical clients. Holly Jeffcoat got promoted and will be Jackson's new chief.

Jesse Ancira, former general counsel and then associate deputy comptroller, is joining Dan Martinez & Associates, a tax consulting firm. That's a Houston firm, but he'll office in Austin as the company's chief legal and operations officer. He'll stay clear of cases he handled as a state employee.

Eddie Solis, until recently the legislative liaison for the comptroller's office, joins the Teas Municipal Retirement System as its government relations director.

Mark Mitchell is the new chief of staff for Rep. Joe Straus III, R-San Antonio.

Walt Smith, legislative aide to former U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio, has joined the Texas Rural Water Association staff as a lobbyist in the association's Austin and Washington DC offices.

Robert Bacon is the new deputy banking commissioner for the state. That's a promotion — he'd been the Texas Banking Commission's director of bank and trust supervision.

Attorney Randall Terrell is the new political director for Equality Texas.

David Guenthner has joined the Texas Public Policy Foundation as director of media and government relations. He'd been at the Texas Workforce Commission for two years.

Gov. Perry appointed David Gregorio Cabrales of Dallas to the Texas Racing Commission. He's an attorney with Locke Lidell & Sapp.

The Guv named and Charlye Ola Farris of Wichita Falls and Carol Carlson Gunn of Graford to Midwestern State University's board of regents. Farris is an attorney. Gunn is on a number of civic boards and serves on the MSU Foundation's board.

GTT: White House Counsel Harriet Miers is leaving Washington after six years working for George W. Bush. She was the president's personal lawyer before he ever won elected office and left the law firm where she was president to work for him in Austin at the Texas Lottery Commission. She was briefly an appointee to the U.S. Supreme Court, until Republicans shouted her out of the running. She'll be at the White House until the end of the month.

Out: Former legislator, attorney general and gubernatorial candidate Dan Morales, who's been serving time in a federal pen for fraud and for filing a false income tax return. He's moved to a halfway house in San Antonio in anticipation of his full release this spring.

And Ben Reyes, a former state representative and Houston City Council member, was released from a halfway house. He went to federal prison, convicted of trying to bribe city officials to support a contract.

Quotes of the Week

Rep. Kino Flores, D-Palmview, in the Houston Chronicle, on his support of Republican Tom Craddick for speaker: "If you don't put him in a corner and if you don't punch him, he'll work with you. Now, has anyone opposed him and survived? I don't know. If you're asking me if I'm going to take that chance, no."

Rep. Senfronia Thompson, D-Houston, quoted in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram on her bid to challenge Craddick: "The most important thing for me is that we get good leadership, whether it's me or someone else who will provide that leadership. If I saw that I couldn't make it, I wouldn't just say, 'To hell with it, let Craddick stay there.' I'd line up with someone else."

Lobbyist/publicist Bill Miller, a Craddick supporter, in the Houston Chronicle, saying (early) that Craddick has the thing sewed up: "It's closed out. We're done. Our support is solid hard. The deal is over. They're in our pocket. There's no race anymore. People can run but they'll lose."

Rep. Warren Chisum, R-Pampa, in the Houston Chronicle on the race for speaker: "It was kind of an assault on his leadership style, so we've got to talk about that . . . You've got to sit down and say, 'OK, how can we do better?' Or maybe we need to get all on the same page if we're going to do the right thing for the people of Texas."

Rep. Leo Berman, R-Tyler, talking about the speaker's race in the Tyler Morning Telegraph: "In order to win that position, Brian McCall would have to do a lot of concessions to the Democrats. I think that would be disastrous. It would result in a Republican-majority House being controlled by the Democrats."

Rep. Chuck Hopson, D-Jacksonville, telling The Dallas Morning News he's been getting 25 to 30 calls from colleagues who want his vote for one side or the other in the Speaker's race: "It's driving me crazy."

---

Texas Weekly: Volume 23, Issue 27, 8 January 2007. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2007 by Printing Production Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 302-5703 or email biz@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 288-6598.

Put the governor in the group that wants the state to refund some of the money it has collected from taxpayers. He added an emergency item to the legislative agenda, saying it ought to be legal to give rebates to state taxpayers. Gov. Rick Perry also wants quick action on property tax relief for elderly homeowners, who were passed over during the special session on school property taxes. Lawmakers can't pass legislation during the first 60 days of the session unless it's designated an emergency by the governor. Perry told reporters earlier this week that the break for elderly homeowners would be an emergency item. And while he scorned talk of a $14.3 billion budget surplus — it's about half that amount, he said — he also named some conservatives outside the government who were, as he put it, on the right track. Some of those folks have been calling on the Legislature to refund money that's in the till but not needed to pay for promised cuts in local school property taxes. Perry also included room to exclude the state's tab for the local tax cut from constitutional spending limits. The constitution limits growth in the state budget, saying it can't exceed projected growth in personal income. Barring a new law, that means they'd have to vote to bust the spending cap in order to pay for the school property tax cuts. Perry's order makes passing that new law a state emergency.

Starting today and rolling through the week: A revenue estimate, a cap on growth in state spending, a report on appraisal reform, and a proposed budget. And who gets to play, anyway?

Because they delayed their vote to set a cap on growth in state spending, Texas budgeteers now get to see how much money they'll have before they decide how much of it they should or shouldn't spend.

Normally, the Legislative Budget Board meets before a legislative session to cap the spending growth rate. The idea is that the state can't increase its spending faster than total personal income in the state is growing. They have a number of estimates to choose from, ranging from about 13 percent to about 17 percent.

Then, as the session begins, the state comptroller issues a revenue estimate telling them how much money the finance folks think will be available. And the budget-writers submit a "base" budget as a starting point for the 20-week debate over state spending.

There are (at least) two kinks this time. The LBB didn't do its bit before the session started, and that panel of House and Senate budget folk will meet this week to set the spending cap.

The comptroller is announcing the revenue estimate later today, giving lawmakers an outer limit on what can be spent.

The budget comes out within days — after the current appropriations chairman and the speaker who appointed him are finished running against each other for the speakership.

The LBB's spending cap will be contentious later: In order to swap state money for the local school property tax cuts approved last year, the Legislature will have to increase spending at a rate much higher than personal income growth. They'll have to vote to do that, a prospect that's got some lawmakers fidgeting in their seats.

And within the week, the appraisal reform task force set up by Gov. Rick Perry and headed by Dallas lawyer Tom Pauken will make its recommendations. Among the discussion topics: Limits on increases in spending by local governments. State lawmakers might find it awkward to put limits on cities and counties while they're exceeding limits on their own spending at the same time.

And the numbers from the comptroller are supposed to be big. That's good news, in a way: The state will have what it needs and won't have to cut programs unless it wants to. But it's bad news, in a way: If budgeteers were to spend all that's available this time, they'll set a spending pattern that might be too expensive to maintain when they write the next budget in 2009. One camp wants to spend what's available. Another wants to sock the money away in the state's Rainy Day accounts as a buffer against later shortages. And a third group thinks any money that's left in state coffers should be refunded to taxpayers.

Footnote: Who's on the LBB anyhow? The panel includes, automatically, the chairs of a couple of House and Senate committees. But those committees won't officially be named until later in the session, and the chairs from the last session might or might not keep their positions. This is ordinarily not a question: the LBB doesn't often meet while the Legislature is in session. But it'll be interesting to see who shows up and votes later this week.

One of many ways to vote for a speaker and to hold the voters accountable for what they do.

The battle over voting rules shows, if nothing else, that the race is close enough that the conduct of the election is critical. Some — mostly on Craddick's side — want a public vote. Others — mostly on Pitt's side — want a secret vote.

One suggestion that keeps coming up: Cast ballots privately, with members voting on ballots that have their names as well as those of the candidates. The voting would be done secretly. The ballots would be counted. A speaker would be declared. And then the boxes could be opened to the public so it would be clear who voted for whom.

That would satisfy the open government crowd and the folks worried about intimidation or fear (they make lawmakers sound so brave, don't they?) while the voting is actually underway.

The state Senate did a variation on this when Rick Perry got promoted to Guv six years ago. But they didn't require members to sign their ballots. When the boxes were opened after Bill Ratliff was elected, some members had signed their work. Some had not.

Rep. Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth, is touting a variation on this sort of disclosure. He'd do everything but the last step in the same way, but instead of showing how people voted right after the election, he'd wait until the winner of the election had named committee chairpeople. That would take away the risks of voting against the winner, and it would remove the spoils of backing the winner. Even enemies could get committee gigs.

Texas has $14.3 billion in "new money" available for the next budget, according to Comptroller Susan Combs.

The news isn't a surprise to lawmakers who've been paying attention to the budget, but it confirms their suspicions that they'll have more money to spend than some of them think they really need.

That presents a problem for appropriators. It's easier to say 'No' when you're short of cash. But spending all of the money available this time could set a pattern they don't think they can afford later.

In her first biennial revenue estimate, the new comptroller says legislators will have $82.5 billion in general revenue available for the next two-year budget, and that current spending in that part of the state's finances totals $68.2 billion in the current budget. The difference is $14.3 billion — theoretically the amount that could be added to current general revenue spending without breaking the bank.

Some of the money is already spent. Increased school enrollments, prison populations, caseload and costs in health and human service programs, and other growth in current programs will eat into the total.

Part of the state's new business tax will be dedicated to local school property tax relief. But lawmakers promised voters even bigger increases, and general revenue money will have to supplement the dedicated funds.

Combs warned of some potential bad weather ahead, with charts showing a slowdown in the growth of the state economy, a drop in the amount of money people are extracting from their home equity to spend on other things, falling housing permits in the state during the past year, and a slight cooling of energy prices and drilling activity. None of that is dire at this point, but it could give some ammunition to budget-writers who want to shoot at various new spending plans.

Some of what's available now is left over from the last budget, which ended with $7 billion in the state treasury. And the $14.3 billion does not include about $2 billion that went straight into the state's Rainy Day Fund.

The new comptroller ditches the tax court, a task force waits for a wave to pass, and the Texas Senate might change it's rules while we're all watching the lower chamber.

Comptroller Susan Combs immediately made good on a big campaign promise, moving the tax courts from her office to the State Office of Administrative Hearings.

The move only involves five judges and, at $431,000, only a relatively small amount of money relative to her agency budget. But the political move is big.

To this point, Texas comptrollers have assessed and collected taxes and oversee the initial judicial review when taxpayers think they've gotten a raw deal. From the taxpayer standpoint, it's as if the cop, the prosecutor and the judge all worked for the same boss.

The cops and the prosecutors are still with Combs, but taxpayers who disagree with the deal they're getting from the comptroller will now take their cases to a separate agency for hearings. There are some limited cases, apparently, that can still come back to the tax folks at the LBJ building, but for the most part, Combs won't have final say when taxpayers disagree.

If SOAH doesn't make them happy, taxpayers will be able to do what they've always been able to do — take the state to court.

The five people moved to SOAH with the judicial section are Joe Greco, Eleanor Kim, Anne Perez, Roy Scudday, and Al Stoll.

Because You Weren't Looking

The govenor's office delayed the release of his task force's report on appraisal reform and caps and all that. They didn't want it buried under the noisy session beginning. That means — though no one is saying so out loud — that they didn't want the speaker's race to overshadow a major announcement.

Because You Might Not Be Looking

Most of the attention at the start of the session will be on the House. While that's going on, the Texas Senate will start with a motion to adopt the same old rules and then possibly move to a couple of other ideas that are floating around.

Sen.-elect Dan Patrick, R-Houston, told his voters he'd try to knock down the rule that requires two-thirds of the Senate to approve something before it can be considered. He has said that empowers the Democrats who are in the minority and limits the Republicans who have the majority.

There's a proposal floating around to lower the requirement from two-thirds, or 21 votes, to three-fifths, or 19. That'd move less dramatically in the same direction and follow the lead of the U.S. Senate.

And there's a proposal to give every member one free run at any piece of legislation, allowing them to introduce something without the two-thirds obstacle. Last session, that would have brought at least two hot items to the full Senate that in fact never came to a vote: caps on increases in appraised property values, and slot machines at horse and dog tracks.

The Senate will caucus — that's a respectable term for doing their work without you watching — before they take up the rules, to decide how to decide what to do.

What the camera caught outside the Austin Club, where House Speaker Tom Craddick talked to his supporters Sunday night.The videographers caught 63 members coming to hear the incumbent.

Rep. Jim Pitts withdrew from the race for speaker after his side lost a procedural vote that would have made members' votes secret until after the new speaker had made committee assignments. That left House Speaker Tom Craddick as the sole nominee in the race, securing a third term for the Midland Republican. Pitts didn't cite the 80-68 vote total on that procedural issue. But after speaking briefly, shaking hands, and hugging Craddick, he told the full House that he didn't want to endanger House members who had told him they'd vote for him if they could do so in a secret ballot. "In my campaign for Speaker I promised my colleagues I would not expose them to a selection process that would leave them vulnerable to retribution. I felt the adopted ballot resolution that required the publication of their names did just that," he said. Had the disclosure passed the way it was intended, the winner of the race for speaker would have had to make committee assignments without knowing who had supported and who had opposed him. The argument was that the assignments would be based on merit rather than loyalty. By forcing a vote on whether the ballots should be opened to the public immediately or after committees are assigned, Craddick's side effectively forced a test vote on the contest between the speaker and Pitts, the Waxahachie Republican who has been his appropriations chairman. That was that. The few folks actually counting votes might have had a notion before the rest of the people in the room were clued in — Pitts told reporters he knew he was cooked well before he conceded. But the procedural vote, and the record vote sheets that spread quickly through the room, showed all of the representatives who stood where, more or less, on the Craddick-Pitts contest. Craddick's challengers were seven votes short of the 75 needed to knock off the incumbent. Once they were flushed out and it was obvious that Craddick had the votes to win, Pitts didn't see any reason to go on. After Pitts quit, the actual vote to keep Craddick in office was 121-27, with all of the Nays coming from Democrats. How they voted: AYES - 80 (65 Republicans, 15 Democrats) Democrats: Bailey; Chavez; Deshotel; Dukes; Dutton; Flores; Giddings; Guillen; T. King; Lucio; McClendon; Pena; Puente; Rose; Turner. Republicans: Anderson; Aycock; Berman; Bohac; Bonnen; Branch; B. Brown; Callegari; Chisum; Christian; B. Cook; Corte; Crabb; Craddick; Creighton; Crownover; Darby; J. Davis; Delisi; Driver; Eissler; England; Flynn; Gattis; Goolsby; Hamilton; Hancock; Hardcastle; Harless; Harper-Brown; Hartnett; Hilderbran; Hill; C. Howard; Isett; Jackson; Keffer; P. King; S. King; Kolkhorst; Krusee; Laubenberg; Macias; Madden; Miller; Morrison; Mowery; Murphy; Orr; Otto; Parker; Patrick; Paxton; Phillips; Riddle; W. Smith; Smithee; Solomons; Swinford; Taylor; Truitt; Van Arsdale; Woolley; Zedler; Zerwas. NAYS - 68 (54 Democrats, 14 Republicans) Democrats: A. Allen; Alonzo; Anchia; Bolton; Burnam; Caraway; Castro; Cohen; Coleman; R. Cook; Y. Davis; Dunnam; Eiland; Escobar; Farabee; Farias; Farrar; Frost; Gallego; Garcia; Gonzales; Gonzalez Toureilles; Heflin; Hernandez; Herrero; Hightower-Pierson; Hochberg; Hodge; Homer; Hopson; D. Howard; Leibowitz; Martinez; Martinez Fischer; McReynolds; Menendez; Miles; Moreno; Naishtat; Noriega; Oliveira; Olivo; Ortiz; Pickett; Quintanilla; Raymond; Ritter; Rodriguez; Strama; Thompson; Vaught; Veasey; Villarreal; Vo. Republicans: Elkins; Geren; Haggerty; Hughes; D. Jones; Kuempel; Latham; McCall; Merritt; Pitts; T. Smith; Straus; Talton; West. Rep. Fred Brown, R-Bryan, was absent, and HD-29 is empty until after a special election later this month.

Briefly. . .We spent most of our time in the lower chamber, watching the race for speaker, but the Senate did a couple of things you should know about. First, they adopted their rules, rolling freshmen Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, in the process. He has campaigned for an end to the rule that two-thirds of the Senate must approve before any legislation can be considered on the floor. The vote was 30-1. Second, the senate named its newest president pro tempore. It's Mario Gallegos, D-Houston.

The Legislative Budget Board says, officially now, that the state budget can't grow more than 13.1 percent over the next two years.The only problem is that lawmakers already know it'll grow more than 30 percent because of their agreement to lower local school property taxes and make up the difference with state funds. That promise alone would force them past the spending cap. And the regular stuff in the budget — increased school and prison populations, health and human service caseloads and costs, and so on — will be added on top of that. Lawmakers will have to vote to break the spending limit sometime this session. Some are nervous that their voters won't understand that or that their opponents will exploit it. So they're looking for escape routes. One possibility is to pass a constitutional amendment — quickly, so voters can see it in May — that says the school money doesn't count against the cap. That would give them cover, if voters approved it. If voters didn't, though, it would just increase the risk of spending the money. An amendment requires two-thirds approval from both halves of the Legislature to get on the ballot, then a thumbs-up from voters. Some legislators don't think this is a big deal, and that group includes some conservative Republicans. They think they can explain the spending surge easily, just telling voters that was a one-time consequence of lowering property taxes.

Gov. Rick Perry will ask the Legislature to fast-track legislation that passes along the school property tax cuts to homeowners with over-65 exemptions. When lawmakers replaced local school taxes with a new state tax last year, they left elderly homeowners out of the deal. Those taxpayers already had their rates frozen — that's the benefit of the over-65 exemption. But there was no provision to cut their rates along with everyone else's. Perry will declare that an emergency item, allowing the Legislature to act right away (without that tag, legislation can't be passed by either chamber until the session has run for 60 days. The break for seniors requires a constitutional amendment; that could be on the ballot as early as May.

Gov. Rick Perry starts the session with higher education, health care, border security, appraisals and the state budget on his list of things to do. The governor, who'll be sworn in for his second full four-year term next week, lived through a day of serial interviews with reporters, taking small bunches for a half-hour at a time.

You'll see varied reports depending on what he said to which group and what they thought was important. Some of the high points from our group's interview:

• The Guv foreshadowed initiatives in higher education, health care, border security and appraisals. He's teasing now, saving the surprises for later. But he gave some hints, saying he'd have "a very intriguing and thoughtful way to address that big group of, the working uninsured in particular." Asked whether it would be like programs passed in Massachusetts or proposed in California, he offered, "Not like California."

He said the border security program will be partly what he's already outlined; during his reelection campaign, he said the state should spend $100 million fighting border crime. "It's a shame we have to spent $100 million when it's the federal government's job — it's kind of like us having to deliver our own mail," he said. He said it would be "idiotic" to build a fence from El Paso to Brownsville — though he thinks they make sense in some urban areas — and said much of the legislation that's been filed on immigration is divisive and in some cases, unconstitutional. And he said border security was one issue he thought was clearly addressed by Texas voters in November.

He didn't say what he wants to do with higher education. But asked what he thinks is wrong with it, he said it should be more accountable, more affordable, more accessible, more competitive and more open. He said the value of college isn't clear enough to enough people. It's not clear to them how it's priced, or what — exactly — they get for their money. He said the state should figure out how to keep more of its smart kids in Texas schools instead of exporting them, and said that community colleges have an important role to play. "I'm not saying on the face that there are any huge problems, but I'm not saying there aren't, either," he said.

• A state water plan — and water issues generally — could be important sleeper issues this session (former Sen. Ken Armbrister, Perry's new legislative director and a veteran of several water law fights, sat nearby, nodding). He said East Texans might decide some time to sell water "rather than let it run out into the Gulf," but he said he's against inter-basin transfers unless "the basin wants to." He called water the only real limiting factor on the state's growth. He said he's looking at everything: conservation, reservoirs, desalination, and water transfers. The real push, he said, will be on reservoirs. And he went out of his way to slap "the antics of those in the environmental going out and trying to create reserves in the middle of a reservoir site."

• He said the press ought to lay off lawmakers on the spending cap and whether busting it is a big deal. Perry said it's goofy to call a tax cut a spending plan, and said that's a sort of "lawyering the numbers" that only makes sense in Austin and Washington. The budget folk would say — anonymously, if they have any sense — that the state is spending more money so that the local school districts can spend less. Perry said it won't be a messy political mire unless the media and other troublemakers make it one.

• Perry said only half of the $14.3 billion in new money reported by Comptroller Susan Combs can actually be called a surplus. Even that's a big number, in his estimation, but some of it is encumbered.

• He'll back what he called "a real spending limit" as opposed to the one the state has now, and hinted — without details — that he'll have a proposal along those lines. His appraisal task force is expected to issue a report soon that will include recommendations for leashes on spending by cities and counties. Perry apparently wants the state government similarly shackled.

• He reiterated his support for operational funding for a Texas Tech Medical School facility in El Paso and said it was a shame the state didn't fund it last time around (it got stuck in the House).

• He had high praise for Combs' decision to put spending records from her agency online, and said his office would soon follow. They need help from the comptroller to do that and wanted to wait until Combs was in office. Her predecessor, Carole Keeton Strayhorn, ran against Perry last year, and they don't get along so well.

Every returning senator who chaired a committee in the previous Legislature kept their position in this new lineup.

The 31-member Senate has five new members. Only one of the five senators they replaced — the late Frank Madla, D-San Antonio — chaired a committee.

• Dallas Sen. Royce West, a Democrat, lost the chairmanship of the Subcommittee on Higher Education, which went to Sen. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo. He also lost the vice chairmanship of the parent committee, Education, to Republican Sen. Kyle Janek of Houston. But he's a chairman now, heading the Intergovernmental Relations panel.

• The other new chairman is Sen. Mario Gallegos, who heads the newly created Subcommittee on Flooding & Evacuations.

Sen. Chris Harris, R-Arlington, is apparently still in the doghouse with the lieutenant governor. A senator since 1991, he's on some strong committees. But he doesn't chair any of them.

• El Paso Sen. Eliot Shapleigh's campaign assertion that he'd been assured a spot on the Finance Committee didn't come true. At a campaign forum during his reelection bid, Shapleigh said Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst had promised him a spot on the budget-writing panel. Asked then, aides to Dewhurst ducked, saying the Lite Guv hadn't made up his mind about who would be on what committee. A spot was open at the time — it had been emptied by the resignation of Madla (who died a few months later in a fire at his home) — but it didn't go to  Shapleigh.

• The Finance Committee has three new members in its highly coveted spots: Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler; Troy Fraser, R-Horseshoe Bay; and Eddie Lucio, D-Brownsville. Two of those spots were opened by departures (Madla and Sen.-turned-Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples); the other belonged to Sen. Kim Brimer, R-Fort Worth. Brimer had spots on Business & Commerce and Finance last session and now has spots on Government Organization and Natural Resources instead.

• There are 15 standing committees and five subcommittees. Republicans chair 10 of the committees and two of the subcommittees, leaving the Democrats with five and three, respectively. Women chair three committees and one subcommittee. Hispanics chair two committees and two subcommittees. Blacks chair two committees.

Deputy Secretary of State H.S. "Buddy" Garcia is apparently on track to become the newest commissioner at the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.

That spot opened when Martin Hubert left the agency to become deputy to Comptroller Susan Combs.

Garcia worked for Gov. Rick Perry and for Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr., D-Brownsville, before getting his current job. He's concentrated on border affairs in both his current job and in his time in the governor's office. Perry's making the appointment, but wanted to wait until Garcia's new senator — Kirk Watson, D-Austin — was sworn in and could approve the appointment. Watson was a commisioner at the old Air Control Board, one of TCEQ's predecessor agencies.

Garcia joins TCEQ at a time when electric companies wanting to build coal plants are seeking permits for those projects. They're getting opposition from several cities and environmental groups, but argue they need to build plants quickly to meet the state's growing need for electric power.

Surrogates for House Speaker Tom Craddick said while this was all in the air that he had heard the complaints of the House and was prepared, if reelected, to make adjustments. But Craddick himself made no public promise of reform or change in style, and what he does next is the subject of much speculation.

Is this going to be more like the aftermath of a failed coup attempt where the guy in charge jails all of the generals who tried to knock him off?

Or will Craddick be more like the guy who gets a serious lecture from his cardiologist about changing his lifestyle before the next heart attack kills him?

The first real evidence might not come until the committee assignments are handed out in a few weeks. Craddick is collecting preference cards from members — that's where they say what they want to do, with senior members getting in line for spots reserved for those with tenure. A couple of weeks after that, he'll announce who gets the good assignments and who gets the stinkers. On one hand, it doesn't make sense for a winner to reward his detractors, and if Craddick doesn't punish at least some of them, members will see that there's no risk in crossing him.

You just knew there was a "however," right? Craddick came within seven votes of getting his political neck snapped. If he's too harsh, the opposition could get fired up enough for another run and try to win that handful of votes against him.

After the elections, Craddick had nine open committee chairmanships and 10 vice chairmanships. Those resulted from defeats and resignations since the previous session. When the votes were counted on a rule that established the battle lines between the Craddick and Pitts armies, five of Craddick's remaining chairmen were on the other side, and 10 of his vice chairs.

Pitts did worse, proportionally, on this own committee than he did in the full House. Five members of the panel didn't return to the Lege. Of the 24 remaining, Pitts got seven votes, including his own. That's 29 percent. In the House, the Geren Amendment got 68 of 148 votes. That's 46 percent.

Rep. Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie, has a new legislative aide. Jason Nelson was previously with Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Austin.

Joe DaSilva moved into the executive offices at the Texas Hospital Association — he's now a senior vice president — and out of the lobby racket. John Hawkins, who joined THA two years ago after a run at the Texas Sunset Advisory Commission, will head the lobby ops.

Cathy DeWitt moves from public affairs to lobbying for the Texas Association of Business for the session. She's done media relations there for several years.

Former Dallas County Judge Margaret Keliher signed on with the Locke Liddell & Sapp law firm's Dallas office. She'll work in the public law section there and will spend some time in the Austin office during the legislative session.

Appointments: Gov. Rick Perry tapped District Judge J. Manuel Banales of Corpus Christi to be presiding judge of the 5th Judicial District. That's a four-year gig, if the Senate goes along.

Mark Silverstone of Georgetown is Perry's choice for the 425th District Court judgeship. He's an attorney in private practice there. Just to the north, Fancy Jezek of Temple will be the new judge of the 426th District Court in Bell County. She's also a private practice attorney.

Perry named Jim Cox the chairman of the Texas Lottery Commission. He's been at the commission since 2002 and served on the General Services Commission before that.

The state's newest transportation commissioners are Ned Holmes of Houston and Fred Underwood of Lubbock. Holmes is a real estate developer and a former commissioner at the Port of Houston Authority and at Texas Parks & Wildlife. Underwood is head honcho at Trinity Co., a cotton bale storage facility.

The governor named Dr. Michael Arambula of San Antonio to the Texas Medical Board, which regulates doctors. He's in private practice and also teaches psychiatry at the UT Health Science Center in San Antonio.

Deaths: Former House Speaker Bill Clayton of Springlake, the first speaker of the modern era to serve more than two terms in the post — he did four — and the political survivor of a political sting investigation run by the FBI. He beat a bribery rap and was reelected to the House and to the speakership when it was over. Clayton covered his shrewd political skills with a country veneer, and became a successful lobbyist after leaving the House. He was 78.