The Other Season to Greet

You think they decorate the malls too early? Here's our version: There are only 90 money-raising, commercial-running, attack-mailing, town hall-squabbling, sign-stealing, robo-calling, finger-pointing, voter-abusing days left until the Texas primary elections.

Candidates for state and federal office start filing with the major parties on Monday, December 4, and have until January 2 to put up or shut up.

You won't know what the money looks like in most of those races for another 60 days. And if history is tradition, there'll be some races where you don't get a good look at the money until it's too late for anybody but voters to do anything about it, when candidates file the reports due eight days before the March 4 election.

If history is the pattern, you won't be sure who's safe until the sun sets on January 2. Recent political history is full of contests that didn't start until the last minutes before the filing deadline. It's not paranoia that tells you there are candidates out there in the weeds — that's experience.

So far, nobody in the Texas congressional delegation has volunteered to leave. Nobody in the Texas Senate has a hand in the air. And only nine of the 150 members of the Texas House have said they won't be back for the next regular session.

That's not unusual.

Texas elected four new members of Congress in 2002, thanks to redistricting and seats added because of the state's growth. Another seven took office after the 2004 elections, the result of a second round of redistricting. Last year, two congressmen who'd been displaced battled their way back into the delegation. But nobody, so far, is offering to leave voluntarily.

The Texas Senate got five freshmen last year, four from retirements and one from an overthrow. Two came in 2004, after retirements. And redistricting and retirements put a half dozen senators in office in regular and special elections in 2002. This year, so far, nobody's retiring or quitting.

The last election cycle put 23 new members into the Texas House. If you add special elections into the mix, 26 of the 150 members were showed up for their first regular legislative session last January. The freshman class before that had 17 members. And the group that started its first regular in 2003 had 36 tenderfeet, a jump in the numbers you can attribute to redistricting.

For state government, it's not shaping up to be the most exciting election year. But the speakership is at stake in the House. If you're playing a long game, this is the first of two elections that'll determine who draws the redistricting maps for Texas after the 2010 census.

The Legislature that makes the first attempt at that will be elected using the current maps. Republicans control both chambers now and it would take something seismic to change the Senate from Red to Blue. But House Republicans have lost ground in two straight elections, dropping from a high of 88 seats to the current 79 (they can retain number 80 if they win a special election in Fort Worth this month). They've got their fingers in the dike, but a five-seat swing would give the two parties exactly equal footing.

The 2010 election will determine who's on the board that draws political maps if, as happened in 2003, the Legislature locks up and can't do it. The Legislative Redistricting Board includes five officeholders: lieutenant governor, speaker, attorney general, comptroller and land commission. The GOP's got all five of those.

Long-term planners in both parties see the better chance in the Legislature. Maps are usually drawn there and edited by federal judges. And it's cheaper for the political financiers to win several legislative races than to win statewide seats and hope the next maps go to the LRB. And with the Senate likely to stay in Republican hands, their focus has to be on the House in 2008 and 2010.

Krusee Won't Run

Mike Krusee, the Republican state representative from Round Rock says he won't seek reelection next year. Krusee, who's 48, is chairman of the House Transportation Committee and has been in office since 1993.

"I will be leaving elective office, but I intend to stay active in the issues I care about, transportation and New Urbanism, both here in Texas and nationwide," Krusee said in a press release announcing his decision not to run.

He's an advocate of increased funding for highways and a supporter of toll roads as one way to pay for new and improved transportation. That's made him a target of opponents of those roads and of the Trans Texas Corridor, but allied him with Gov. Rick Perry and other advocates of TTC and highway overhauls.

"I am proud that Texas has taken bold, visionary steps toward our looming infrastructure problems... time will show that we were right to take bold steps on transportation policy," he said.

Krusee had a hard race last year and opponents began seriously looking at his HD-52 seat last summer. He got just 50.4 percent of the vote in last year's general election, after winning 63.8 percent against a Republican challenger in the March primary. He's been unopposed just once in his eight successful campaigns. The 2006 result was the tightest since he unseated an incumbent Democrat in 1992 with 51.7 percent of the vote.

This year, Democrat Diana Maldonado, a Round Rock ISD trustee and a state employee, announced her intention to run before Krusee got out and was planning a campaign based on his perceived weaknesses. This week brought the announcement of her endorsement by Annie's List, an Austin-based political action committee that gives to pro-choice Democratic women running for state office. She is, for the moment, unopposed.

Republicans say privately they'll have a better chance with a fresh face — that the results of the last election were about Krusee and not about Democratic growth in Williamson County. So far, though, they don't have a candidate.

Potential Republican candidates — being talked up by fellow Republicans in the district — include Larry Gonzales, a House staffer and political consultant long involved in Williamson County GOP politics; Round Rock Mayor Nyle Maxwell, who recently announced he won't run for reelection next year; Brian Daniel, a former Texas state director of USDA Rural Development; and former Round Rock City Councilman Gary Coe. That's not to say they're likely, or that they're in — just that those are the names we're hearing in the wake of Krusee's announcement. Maxwell told the Austin American-Statesman he's not interested. Gonzales didn't say he will or won't: "My only interest is making sure this seat stays a Republican seat."

Krusee bridled under former House Speaker Pete Laney and came into his leadership position by supporting Tom Craddick's successful bid for that job in 2003. But by the end of the last legislative session, he was among those questioning Craddick's management of the House. While he never openly threw in with any challengers, he made a personal privilege speech in the last days of the session calling on Craddick to loosen his grip on the reins.

After the session, there was talk that Craddick was offering support to potential Krusee challengers in the GOP. And Krusee was among six House members — each with adversarial relationships with Craddick — who joined in a legal brief prepared for the Attorney General on the limits of a speaker's powers. Even with that, Craddick put his name on a Krusee reelection fundraiser earlier this year. That quelled talk of a feud, but didn't stop rumors about whether Krusee would run again.

That fundraising came after the latest mid-year reports. At the end of June, Krusee reported cash on hand of $321,505 in his political accounts.

Krusee is No. 9 on the list of folks who won't be back. Candidates start filing for office next week, but these names won't be among them, at least for their current spots:

Robby Cook III, D-Eagle Lake, HD-17, won't seek reelection.

Dianne White Delisi, R-Temple, HD-55, won't seek reelection.

Fred Hill, R-Richardson, HD-112, won't seek reelection.

Anna Mowery, R-Fort Worth, HD-97, resigned in August.

Rick Noriega, D-Houston, HD-145, running for U.S. Senate.

Mike O'Day, R-Pearland, HD-29, won't seek reelection.

Robert Puente, D-San Antonio, HD-117, won't seek reelection.

Robert Talton, HD-144, R-Pasadena, running for U.S. House.

Every Fifth Chairman

Eight of the 40 lawmakers who chair House committees are either quitting — that's five — or are either running against or opposing the reelection of House Speaker Tom Craddick.

Make it nine if you include Speaker Pro Tempore Sylvester Turner, a Houston Democrat who says at the end of last session that he'll be a candidate for speaker in January 2009.

All of them supported Craddick at some point — some to the end — but that's nine votes he can't count on next time. As the filing season begins on Monday, Craddick's supporters and his opponents will be trying to fill those holes. It's a two-edged sword: You lose chairs and votes, but you have empty chairmanships to dangle in front of the people whose support you seek. You can't legally promise anything, but the plums still get talked about.

More chairs could open up as various legislators decide not to run, or get beat in March or November. In addition to the mostly honorary speaker pro tempore gig, three chairs are in the hands of members who are either running for speaker or supporting a change in speakers: Civil Practices, chaired by Rep. Byron Cook, R-Corsicana; Human Services, Patrick Rose, D-Dripping Springs; and Ways & Means, Jim Keffer, R-Eastland.

Five chairmen are leaving. Rep. Anna Mowery, R-Fort Worth, resigned earlier this year. She chaired the Committee on Land and Resource Management. Four won't seek reelection: Local Government Ways & Means, Fred Hill, R-Dallas; Natural Resources, Robert Puente, D-San Antonio; Public Health, Dianne White Delisi, R-Temple; and Transportation, Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock.

Nine of Craddick's chairmen are Democrats. Two are listed above. Three more already face serious challengers to reelection: Reps. Kevin Bailey of Houston, Kino Flores of Palmview, and Aaron Peña of Edinburg.

Suiting Up

Tom Annunziato, a Fort Worth optometrist, says officially now that he'll run against Rep. Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth. And the trade group he used to head, the Texas Optometric Association, put $75,000 into his campaign treasury (he says he's raised $175,000 in all).

That's more — by a factor of more than ten — than their political action committee gives other candidates. But there's no optometrist in the Lege, and they want one. The last big contributions from that PAC came in Stacie Virden's 2004 unsuccessful race for a Waco House seat; the committee gave $21,000 over the course of that run, supplemented by individual contributions from other optometrists, including Annunziato.

Since 2000, he's given $43,500 to Texas political candidates and PACs, including $2,000 to Geren. His favorites? Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford, $9,400; and Sen. Kim Brimer, R-Fort Worth, $6,750. Geren's been a large thorn in the paw of House Speaker Tom Craddick. King is one of Craddick's top lieutenants. And it's not hard to find people who attribute the challenger's interest to the urging of Craddick supporters.

For his part, Annunziato says he's wanted to run for office for a few years and has been active in GOP politics; he's challenging Geren, he says, because "I looked and just didn't like his politics."

Special Elections and other Notes

Republican Mark Shelton bagged endorsements from Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC and from BACPAC — the political action committee affiliated with the Texas Association of Business.

The Democrat he's running against is Dan Barrett, who's also a trial lawyer. It's only natural. Shelton's a doctor — the Texas Medical Association's PAC is playing here, too — who works at Cook Children's Medical Center. He also picked up the endorsement of the NRA's Political Victory Fund.

• Officially: Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, says he'll seek reelection. No surprise, but it's official... Same for Rep. Tony Goolsby, R-Dallas, who'll seek an 11th term in the House.

• U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Dallas, let the rarity of a televised football game host his fundraiser. He invited donors to watch the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers at Dallas' Granada Theater. The game wasn't on the local cable outlet.

• Rep. Betty Brown, R-Terrell, has some cranky Republicans in her district, and they've started a website at www.bettybrown.org. The author is Elicia Sanders, a one-time aide to Carole Keeton Strayhorn, among others. She lives on a small horse ranch in Brown's district with her husband, political consultant Mark Sanders. There's a counter on the bottom of the website's homepage, and more than 3,000 people had visited at our last check. The site, while highly critical of Brown, doesn't promote another candidate. She's the sole focus. Brown faces a GOP primary rematch against Wade Gent.

• The good news from the audit of the state's voter rolls is that only 0.4 percent of the 12.4 million registered voters in the state might be ineligible to vote, and that none of the possibly illegal voters actually voted. So they didn't find any voter fraud. But the State Auditor's Office identified 49,049 voters who possibly shouldn't have been there (we're not being cute; the report included the "possibly" label since it's difficult to tell for sure on these things. Among the potential stinkers were records for 23,114 "possible felons," records for 23,576 voters "who may be deceased," and duplicate records for 2,359 voters. They didn't identify any cases where those folks voted (the May 12 special election was the test case).

Homework

The subjects in the speaker's interim charges to the Legislature come right out of the headlines, past and future:

Voter fraud, financial aid for college students and incentive funding for colleges, a laundry list of budget and cost-estimating reforms, pay rates for Medicaid providers, identity theft, hunting and fishing on state lands, mortgage foreclosures, health insurance, streamlining government, the Houston crime lab, the state's new business tax, border security, a review of the prison system, drunk driving laws, human trafficking, political use of government email, the marketing and sale of college textbooks, energy conservation, the state's jury system, eminent domain, concealed handguns on school campuses, online public school courses, and judicial redistricting.

And that's just a quick sampling of what had been released when we published. The between-session work for lawmakers and lobbyists is trickling out of the House (no puffs of smoke from the Senate yet) in three parts. House Speaker Tom Craddick released it in three parts.

Part 1 is here. Part 2 is here. And Part 3 is here.

Central Planning

The governor named 29 people to an advisory panel called the Governor's Competitiveness Council with this charge: "identifying impediments to the state’s ability to remain competitive in a global marketplace and recommending steps the state should take to improve its economic footing." They haven't met yet, but if and when they do, it's an interesting bunch.

There's an industry group: Charles Thomas "Tom" Burbage, executive vice president and general manager of Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company; James Epperson Jr., president of AT&T Texas; Gayle Fallon, president of the Houston Federation of Teachers; Michael Greene, CEO of Luminant; Johnny Edwin Lovejoy II, president and CEO of Lovejoy and Associates; Gray Mayes, director of public affairs at Texas Instruments Inc.; Ronald McMillan, regional vice president of governmental affairs, Time Warner Cable; Zebulun Nash, site manager of ExxonMobil Chemical Company; Joseph O'Neill III, managing partner of O’Neill Properties Ltd.; Kip Thompson, vice president of global facilities and strategic growth at Dell Inc.; Jeffrey Wade, executive vice president and general counsel of Lexicon Genetics Inc.; and Paul Zmigrosky, group vice president of procurement and logistics for Frito-Lay.

He included some elected officials: Comptroller Susan Combs, Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, State Board of Education Chairman Don McLeroy and Texas Secretary of State Phil Wilson, who'll chair the council.

And he rounded it out with other government officials and private sector education and economic development people: Aaron Demerson, executive director of the Governor’s Division of Economic Development and Tourism; Buddy Garcia, presiding officer of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality; attorney Sandy Kress, who chairs the Commission for a College Ready Texas; Texas Workforce Commissioner Ron Lehman; Charles McMahen, chairman of the Governor’s Business Council; Bill Morrow, presiding officer of the Texas Emerging Technology Fund; Texas Higher Education Commissioner Raymund Paredes; Education Commissioner Robert Scott; Public Utility Commission Chairman Barry Smitherman; Texas Workforce Investment Council Chairman John Sylvester Jr.; Texas Transportation Commission Chairman Ric Williamson; and Bob Wingo, chairman of the Texas Economic Development Corporation.

Political People and Their Moves

Gov. Rick Perry appointed Daniel Rios of Edinburg to the new 449th District Court. Rios is a private practice lawyer and a former Hidalgo County prosecutor.

He named David Farr of Houston to the 312th District Court. Farr is an associate judge in the 257th District Court. Those are both family courts. He'll replace James Squier, a Republican (one of several) who's running for Congress in CD-22.

The governor named three new regents at the University of North Texas: Don Buchholz of Dallas, co-founder and chairman of SWS Group Inc.; former Rep. and Texas Secretary of State Gwyn Shea of Irving; and Jack Wall, a rancher and investor who lives in Dallas. All three went to school at UNT.

Perry is keeping James Lee of Houston on the Teacher Retirement System of Texas board. Lee is president of a private investment firm.

He named John Brieden, a Brenham insurance agent, to be presiding officer of the Texas Veterans Commission.

And the Guv named four to the Texas Commission on Law Enforcement Officer Standards and Education: Midland County Constable Charles Hall, who's been on the commission but will get boosted to chairman; Ada Brown, a Dallas attorney and former judge; Sugar Land Police Chief Stephen Griffith; and Randall County Sheriff Joel Richardson.

After six years with the Texas Hospital Association, Greg Knaupe is joining Santos Alliances, an Austin-based public affairs outfit.

Deaths: Bill Wells, the original director of the state's Sunset Advisory Commission. He ran it from its start as a division under the Legislative Budget Board through the transition to a standalone agency and into the early 1990s, when he retired after the Legislature nearly killed the commission.

Quotes of the Week

Will Newton, executive director of the National Federation of Independent Business/Texas, telling the Houston Chronicle about his group's opposition to the state's new business tax: "I don't know how on Earth someone can run for election saying, 'Hey, you're not making money. Give the state a little extra money.' "

Michael Maresco, who's been bicycling around the U.S. to show his support for presidential candidate Ron Paul, in the Brazosport Facts: "The hardest thing, other than the hills, has been seeing people that don’t care."

The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, in a unanimous ruling in Lawrence v. State of Texas: "The Supreme Court has emphasized that states may protect human life not only once the fetus has reached viability but 'from the outset of the pregnancy,' The Legislature is free to protect the lives of those whom it considers to be human beings."

U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall, R-Rockwall, on undocumented immigrants, in the Tyler Morning Telegraph: "I can't reward people for breaking our laws. But I can't punish them forever for trying to get a better life. That's what we've got to reconcile."

McAllen developer Alonzo Cantu, telling the Washington Post why he helped raise $640,000 so far for Hillary Clinton in South Texas: "To me, there's two things that will keep us from being ignored. Money and votes. I think we've shown we can raise money. That will get us attention, or at least get us a seat at the table, get us in the room."


Texas Weekly: Volume 24, Issue 24, 3 December 2007. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2007 by Printing Production Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 302-5703 or email biz@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 288-6598.

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Weatherford Mayor Joe Tison kicked off the first day of filing, saying he'll run in the GOP primary against Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford.Filing for next year's elections began today and continues through January 2. Tison says he has no particular problem with King, but says the incumbent has spent his time on utility and telecommunications issues and that "the people in Parker and Wise Counties need someone to work with them on their issues." King is one of House Speaker Tom Craddick's top lieutenants; Tison says he hasn't got a position on Craddick. "I don't know anything about the speaker," he says. In a written statement, he was a little harder on King than in an interview: "This fast-growing area needs a representative whose top priorities are the hard-working families and small business owners of Parker and Wise counties, not the partisan agendas of politicians in Austin," Tison said. Tison's finishing his fourth term as mayor; before that, he was Weatherford ISD's superintendent.

This week, bloggers are falling all over each other to kick retiring state Rep. Mike Krusee on his way out. They're also agog over the latest happening in the U.S. Senate, abuzz about contests throughout the Lone Star State and atwitter after the announcement of interim charges for the House. We'll finish with some bits and pieces on this-and-that.

* * * * *

Krusee-fied

Guess who's taking credit for the retirement of Round Rock Republican Krusee? Anti-toll blog muckraker, who says he planted the seed in spring 2006 by recruiting Barbara Samuelson to run against Krusee and expose the chinks in his armor.

Eye on Williamson ties Krusee's retirement to the impending (says them) ouster of House Speaker Tom Craddick — basically, that Krusee's clout came from his relationship with Craddick, and that trouble for Craddick was trouble for Krusee. Here's an earlier exhaustive detailing of the "Republican political machine" in Williamson County.

Krusee's absence should bring garner more attention for the race between Democrat Diana Maldonado and a Republican-to-be-named-later, says Off the Kuff. "It's gonna be a lot of fun to watch whoever it is mop the floor with Maldonado," says Wilco Wise.

Meanwhile, McBlogger takes a moment to bash privatized toll roads (AKA "Comprehensive Development Agreements") and to say that potential GOP candidate Nyle Maxwell, the Mayor of Round Rock, "is about as popular in the district as a child molester at one of John Walsh's parties." [ed. note: Maxwell says he's not running.]

Trail Blazers says they saw this one coming from a mile away. Austin Political Report says they called it, too.

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The Sen-turions

BurkaBlog relays a piece from The Hill newspaper that states, in the event of a Hillary Clinton-headlined Democratic presidential ticket, "The most obvious choice [for GOP vice-presidential nominee] is Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas)." Burka also funnels a KBH-centric article from RedState.com.

Here are Burka's initial impressions following the resignation announcement of U.S. Sen. and Minority Whip Trent Lott, R-Mississippi, wherein KBH and Sen. John Cornyn move up the chain of command in orderly fashion. Later, he says that KBH's possible gubernatorial aspirations are affecting leadership decisions in the chamber. And Rick Perry vs. The World puts forth a scenario where Cornyn leapfrogs KBH in party leadership rankings, while Trail Blazers gives a bit of background on the Lott-KBH-George W. Bush dynamic, but refrains from prognostication.

Here's Texas Blue's analysis of the inside baseball. And Texas Politics, the Houston Chronicle's blog, has in-game video analysis from Cornyn.

Cornyn is "Kidding Himself" when he champions the State Children's Health Insurance Program, says Texas Observer Blog, while North Texas Liberal says "It's interesting" to watch Karl Rove and Cornyn attempt the immigration tightrope.

In this post summing up the state of the Democratic Senate primary — now down to Rick Noriega and Ray McMurreyHalf-Empty leads with an awkward metaphor ("A long time gone by and a long row has been hoed. And a longer one to come.) and ends with a questionable term ("I know, with a Mick name it is going to be difficult if not impossible to win a race in south Texas…").

* * * * *

Track Meets

Jim Truitt will run as an independent candidate in CD-7, not as a Democrat. "Good luck with that, buddy," says Brains and Eggs. Meanwhile, Burnt Orange Report supports CD-10 candidate Dan Grant's decision to use flag-draped coffins in campaign commercials. Democrat Grant is challenging Rep. Mike McCaul, R-Austin.

CD-22 Republican Robert Talton's website is up, reports cd22 watcher. And Jim Squier, another CD-22 Republican, has raised $150,000 in 40 days, also from cd22 watcher.

Rhetoric & Rhythm takes a look at Republican challenger Quico Canseco, concluding that Canseco has a "slim to none" chance of beating incumbent Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in CD-23.

Former Vidor Mayor Larry Hunter is taking on Rep. Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton R-Mauriceville, says Burnt Orange. Hunter's running as a Democrat. In other news, Observer thinks Democrat "Dan Barrett has a good shot to beat Dr. Mark Shelton" (a Republican) in House District 97 (that's a special election two weeks from now). And Armando Walle is challenging incumbent Kevin Bailey in HD-140's Democratic primary, says Dos Centavos.

Fort Worth attorney Steve Maxwell is eying the Tarrant County Democratic Party's chairmanship, according to Burnt Orange. Austin Political Report wonders if Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle will run again. Check out the comments section for names of potential replacements.

Here, Blue waxes eloquent on Dems' chances overall in 2008 and 2010.

* * * * *

What's the Charge?

Capitol Annex has a three-parter on the interim charges released by Speaker Craddick: uno, dos, tres. After inspecting the charges, Williamson concludes there's "nothing new or different" on "the Speaker's, and his minions, agenda after all." Texas Prison Bid'ness has its take here. Texas Politics' is here. And here and here are Trial Blazer's views.

Chronic, the Austin Chronicle's blog, says state Rep. Mark Strama, D-Austin, could play the Grinch on tort reform, giving Craddick the role of Cindy Lou Who. More from Chronic on the topic here. (To toss in another item related to the Speaker, musings claims to have become privy to an alternative definition for the acronym WASP.)

* * * * *

Odds and Ends

Retiring Travis County Judge Jeanne Meurer turned down a top spot at the Texas Youth Commission, says Grits for Breakfast.

What does Joel Osteen have in common with "Zac Efron, Shia LaBoeuf, and the Disney Kids"? Houstoned knows.

Get a free education from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, courtesy of Mike Falick's Blog.

An interview with former Texas Land Commissioner Gary Mauro, by Blue.

A video of America's Top Republican Governor Rick Perry, by Texas Politics.

Mike Huckabee in the raw, from KVUE's Political Junkie.

And Headline of the Week Award goes to South Texas Chisme for a self-explanatory post entitled, "Well, duh! Immigrants' kids learn English."


This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria and finds Austin's climate pleasantly arid. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

For a few months, the regular limits on campaign contributions didn't apply to Democrats giving to U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega.

But the Houston Democrat and his supporters didn't make much of the opportunity.

Now, with multi-millionaire lawyer Mikal Watts out of the race, some Democrats are wondering if Noriega lost more than just a primary opponent.

Noriega's chances to be the Democratic candidate against U.S. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in next year's Senate race improved when Watts dropped out of the race in October. Noriega, a lieutenant colonel in the National Guard who has served in Afghanistan, was at a huge financial disadvantage against Watts, who bankrolled his own campaign with millions of his own money.

But strategists say that Watt's early exit dried up the media interest and, more importantly, the money that comes with that interest in the race. And he'll need money — raised at a clip of $800,000 a month or more — if he makes it to the general election next November and spends enough to head-to-head against Cornyn on advertising and organization.

"The great narrative of the Watts/Noriega saga was there," says one Democratic strategist speaking on background. "And now that it's gone, it's left a great void."

Also gone is Noriega's ability to ask deep-pocketed donors to go above and beyond the usual campaign limits of $2,300 per election. Because of the "millionaire's amendment" in federal campaign-finance law, opponents of wealthy, self-financed candidates can ask for up to six times the individual giving limit, which amounts to $13,800 per election this election cycle.

Now that Watts is out, Noriega's limits have snapped back to normal. The window of opportunity lasted almost five months — from June 1st, when Watts reported to the Federal Election Commission that he'd given his campaign $3.8 million, until Oct. 23, when he dropped out of the contest. But only seven individuals (one was former Gov. Dolph Briscoe) donated more than $10,000 to Noriega up through the end of September, FEC records show, and only a handful more crossed the standard $2,300 barrier. Noriega's campaign said three individuals gave the full $13,800 maximum to Noriega in October before Watts dropped out, and says several others during that same time gave more than the normal $2,300 per election but did not max out.

Sue Schechter, Noriega's campaign manager, says the campaign did its best to take advantage of the higher maximums while it could, but persuading donors to part with 13 grand was no walk in the park.

"It's not easy, that's a lot of money," she says.

It's hard to raise money against a self-financing candidate — some donors see a bad investment there — but for whatever reason, Noriega's camp missed a chance.

Whether Noriega, who raised about $580,000 through the end of September, has the money-raising chops to take on Cornyn is a concern among some Democratic strategists. Cornyn already has a big lead, with $6.6 million on hand at the end of September. He also got big money shots in the arm a few weeks ago when President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney came back to the Lone Star State to raise dough for his campaign.

In a state as big as Texas, strategists estimate that $10 to $15 million minimum is needed to have a shot at winning. Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, who lost to Cornyn in 2002, made it into that financial park and still fell short on Election Day. Noriega says money and "making my name a household name" isn't the issue, and told reporters in Austin this week, "It's not about how the media looks at Cornyn's bank account, but how [voters] look at their own bank accounts."

"[Noriega] has got to wake up and live and breath raising money everyday," one Democratic consultant says.

That hefty price tag may also deter fat cat, out-of-state Democratic donors from opening their pocket books to Noriega, strategists say, when they could get a bigger bang for their buck by donating to a Senate race in a smaller state — New Mexico's an easy example — where campaigns costs less.

Schechter says claims that the Noriega campaign slowed down after Watts dropped out are false, and they have remained as aggressive as ever in their efforts. She says they plan to spend in the six-figures in the primary alone to increase Noriega's statewide visibility. With Watts out, little-known Ray McMurrey, a high school teacher and tennis coach from Corpus Christi, is the only other declared hopeful to be the Democratic nominee and isn't expected to put up much of a fight.

Jason Stanford, who was with the Watts campaign until it fizzled, says it's easy to criticize Noriega's campaign from the sidelines but points out that no one has figured out how to beat a Republican in a statewide office in many, many moons.

"There's no playbook on how to do it," Stanford says. "[The Noriega campaign] is going to have to feel their way through this."

— by Alan Suderman

It'll be the biggest steroid testing program in the world. Officials aren't quite sure what it's going to look like, and they won't know its consequences until at least 2009. But the passage of Senate Bill 8 turned the eyes of the nation upon Texas, and its restrooms.

Texas high schools will become one great big laboratory during this school year. The experiment will show how many kids actually use steroids, and will determine whether the threat of randomized urinalysis tests hinders steroid use.

Tests get most of the attention, but the legislation mandates that all athletic coaches, for grades 7 and up, go through an educational program designated by the University Interscholastic League or by the individual school district.

"The whole point of this program is to ensure safety, and a fair and competitive environment for our young athletes," says the House sponsor, Rep. Dan Flynn, R-Van.

The program's specifics aren't set in stone yet, he says. The UIL released a tentative set of rules and is taking public comments until Dec. 19. The UIL is reviewing bids from 14 private testing companies, Rogers says.

About 3 percent of high school athletes would be tested each school year, with test subjects spread around 30 percent of state high schools. That translates to about 20,000 to 25,000 students per year, out of the more than 700,000 students who play sports.

According to the nationwide Monitoring the Future Study, from the University of Michigan, about 2.7 percent of American high school seniors in 2006 reported ever having tried steroids, down from a high of 4 percent in 2002. About 1.8 percent of seniors said they used steroids in the past year, and 1.1 percent in the past month. (Those figures are comparable to stats for the use of crack cocaine.)

If the MTF survey is accurate, and the testing is fair, testing 25,000 students would catch about 275 steroid users. Officials aren't sure what the UIL is going to do with its statistics or how long records will be kept.

"That is one of the questions that has been asked," Flynn says. "We don't want schools to be answering that in courts."

The UIL will produce the statistics and results at the behest of lawmakers, says Sen. Kyle Janek, R-Houston, stressing that legislators aren't interested in which individuals tested positive or not. "We're looking for prevalence," he says.

But there will be consequences for those who fail. For the athletes, the first confirmed positive test result carries a one-month suspension from competition, and the student must pass a subsequent test before being reinstated. A second failure brings a one-year ban. A third strike, and you're out of public school sports.

Details are still being hashed out, but a student who tests positive will have the same chance as everyone else (3 percent) of getting tested during the next school year.

Dust off the abacus again, and that means about 88.5 percent of student-athletes will never be tested in four years of competition. A student has about an 11 percent chance of being tested once in four years, a 0.51 percent chance of being tested twice, a 0.01 percent chance of being tested three times (that's 1-in-10,000), and a 0.000081 percent chance of being called to duty four times in four years (that's an 8-in-10 million chance).

If you assume 150,000 freshmen will play sports during all four years, about 16,500 will be tested once, 765 will be tested twice, 15 will be tested three times, and one-eighth of a kid will be tested four times.

Even though a 3 percent chance of being tested each year "is still a relatively small amount, even that little bit of fear could be a deterrent," Janek says.

Thus far, the limited amount of science on the topic of drug testing is inconclusive. A two-year, randomized controlled study of 11 Oregon high schools (five that had testing policies and six that did not), showed no difference in past-month drug use between students at testing schools and students at non-testing schools.

The authors of that study (the Student Athlete Testing Using Randomized Notification, or SATURN) appeared in the Nov. 2007 Journal of Adolescent Health) conclude in the abstract, "More research is needed before DAT [drug and alcohol testing] is considered an effective deterrent for school-based athletes."

Janek hadn't seen the SATURN study, but he says an important goal of the statewide testing program is to pinpoint the level of steroid use by students, and to ascertain if testing — whether that means testing more or less students someday — is a way to address the problem.

Flynn scoffs at the results. "That's somebody's opinion. Everyone has an opinion," he says.

He adds, though, that legislators will be keeping an eye on future research, and "if something comes up that says this program is not one that's going to curtail steroid use, then, yeah, we're going to look at something else."

Janek says the money for the first two years of testing are coming from general funds. The bill's fiscal note estimates the cost of the program at $4 million per year.

Officials are sorting out how to pay for testing beyond the 2008-2009 school year. Two possibilities are that the money could come from the state budget, or it could come from an increase in the price of tickets to UIL events.

— by Patrick Brendel

A lawmaker tinkering with sales taxes can do one of two things to bring in more money: Raise the rate or add to the number of things that the state taxes. Both have economic and political risks.

The first option is a complicated piece of math that we'll oversimplify for illustration. The state's current sales tax of 6.25 percent brings in about $21 billion annually, or about $3.4 billion per penny of the tax rate (that's a rough calculation based on the comptroller's current revenue estimate, which is based on expected levels of taxable sales in the state this year and next).

These next numbers are even gamier, so we'll apologize in advance to the revenuers who do this for a living: If you want to raise, say, $3.4 billion, you add a penny to the sales tax. If you want to get rid of all local school property taxes, you'd have to add four or five cents to the current rate. And you'd have to guess how much you were going to hurt sales by doing that, since sales tax increases amount to price increases on everyday goods. Higher taxes can lower sales, so you have to raise taxes even higher to get the money you wanted, which can lower sales. It's full of trouble

The second way is easier to explain, if politically more dangerous. You raise revenue by getting rid of sales tax exemptions currently in place, choosing from a cafeteria array of items like home sales, food, medicine, farm equipment, utilities, car repairs, haircuts and perms, and on and on. Apply the existing rate to an untaxed item, and you get that much more revenue without raising the tax rate.

But each of those exempted items has one or more constituencies. Local reports of Rep. Phil King's comments on sales taxes, for example, set off the Realtors, the medical associations, and others who sell goods and services that aren't subject to taxes. That was based on newspaper reports that he'd suggested taxes on their transactions. King says he's not endorsing any specific changes right now. He also declines to name anything he definitely wouldn't subject to sales tax. As far as he's concerned, it's all on the table.

With a tough election 12 weeks away, this might seem like a funny time for a Republican to propose new taxes. But Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford, says he wants to raise sales taxes enough to do away with school property taxes.

King, who'll face Weatherford Mayor Joe Tison in the March 4 primary, won't exactly how he'd get more money out of the sales tax. "I don't really want to get into the specifics about that," he says. Local property taxes pay more than half the costs of public education. Shifting that to the state might help homeowners and business property owners, but they and everyone else would pay a sales tax to make up the difference.

The idea suddenly has King in the local newspapers and has given Tison something to talk about.

"It's a bad idea that would make it even harder for businesses and families who are already being squeezed enough — another example of how politicians initiate something without asking their local constituents what effect it has on their schools, their government, or their living standards," Tison says.

King is sticking to his guns. He says he's been talking to groups around his district for months and that they "overwhelmingly" prefer sales taxes to property taxes. Lawmakers have fixed school finance repeatedly, but property taxes keep rising: "It's headed for a train wreck... I'm real comfortable with [his proposal]. I have yet to find anyone in the district who tells me they'd rather pay the property tax."

He says the tax doesn't work, that it forces people "to rent their homes from the state" and that it should be killed with a constitutional amendment in favor of higher sales taxes dedicated to public schools.

He would leave other property taxes — those that fund local governments other than schools — in place. Those amount to less than half the average property tax bill and don't rise as fast as school taxes have. He'd rebate money to low income people at the end of each year to make up for the harder hit they take, relative to their incomes, from the sales tax.

King says he and other members of the Texas Conservative Coalition have been talking about the sales tax-property tax swap for months. And he says House Speaker Tom Craddick plans to announce that a new legislative committee will look at alternatives to the property tax before the next legislative session. Craddick's office isn't making public promises. "The issue of eliminating school property taxes and replacing them with sales tax is an interesting idea, and the speaker will visit with the members about the viability of that idea in the coming days and weeks," says Alexis DeLee, a spokeswoman for Craddick.

Political People and their Moves

Eight of the 40 lawmakers who chair House committees are either quitting — that's five — or are either running against or opposing the reelection of House Speaker Tom Craddick.

Make it nine if you include Speaker Pro Tempore Sylvester Turner, a Houston Democrat who says at the end of last session that he'll be a candidate for speaker in January 2009.

All of them supported Craddick at some point — some to the end — but that's nine votes he can't count on next time. As the filing season begins on Monday, Craddick's supporters and his opponents will be trying to fill those holes. It's a two-edged sword: You lose chairs and votes, but you have empty chairmanships to dangle in front of the people whose support you seek. You can't legally promise anything, but the plums still get talked about.

More chairs could open up as various legislators decide not to run, or get beat in March or November. In addition to the mostly honorary speaker pro tempore gig, three chairs are in the hands of members who are either running for speaker or supporting a change in speakers: Civil Practices, chaired by Rep. Byron Cook, R-Corsicana; Human Services, Patrick Rose, D-Dripping Springs; and Ways & Means, Jim Keffer, R-Eastland.

Five chairmen are leaving. Rep. Anna Mowery, R-Fort Worth, resigned earlier this year. She chaired the Committee on Land and Resource Management. Four won't seek reelection: Local Government Ways & Means, Fred Hill, R-Dallas; Natural Resources, Robert Puente, D-San Antonio; Public Health, Dianne White Delisi, R-Temple; and Transportation, Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock.

Nine of Craddick's chairmen are Democrats. Two are listed above. Three more already face serious challengers to reelection: Reps. Kevin Bailey of Houston, Kino Flores of Palmview, and Aaron Peña of Edinburg.

Quotes of the Week