A Fling or a Trend?

Texas Republicans have never had a primary like this one. They got a quarter of a million more voters to the polls this year than they did in the presidential primaries four years ago.

And they weren't the big story.

Texas Democrats haven't voted in these numbers since the days when their primary was a de facto general election. The last time more than two million people voted in a Texas Democratic primary was 1972 — when the state had presidential and gubernatorial candidates on the same ticket. This year — the first time Texas was an important part of the primary map for Democratic presidential candidates since the days of LBJ — 2.9 million people voted.

Altogether, the two parties followed their record early voting by turning out 4,252,386 voters — just under the number that voted in the 2006 general election that gave Gov. Rick Perry a second full term.

Who are these people?

Not everyone answers that the same way. Pollster Daron Shaw, a political science prof at the University of Texas at Austin, said 15 to 20 percent of the people voting in the Democratic primary had some Republican voting history, so there was some crossover.

But he and others say it wasn't out of line with some past elections. Pollster Mike Baselice puts the number lower, at 9 to 15 percent, but sees some crossover. Another Republican pollster, Bryan Eppstein of Fort Worth, puts that crossover number in the same range and thinks most of the "new" voters in the two primaries were borrowed from November. They're new to the primaries, but not to the polls. And he concludes that the turnout boom is a fling and not a trend — and that November's numbers won't be as far out of line as the primary numbers were.

Leland Beatty, a Democratic number-cruncher, was most interested in exit polling that showed women over 40 holding onto their share of the primary vote — 46 to 48 percent — in spite of the growth in the number of voters. They still made up more than two-fifths of the vote, just as they usually do, and that helped Hillary Clinton stave off Barack Obama. Latinos also held onto their share of the Democratic primary vote, he says, further bolstering Clinton.

Baselice says the Hispanics came late, partly accounting for the differences in early voting — Obama won — and Election Day voting, which went strongly toward Clinton.

A Four-Day Flip

Barack Obama won the early voting in Texas, but lost that lead and then some on Election Day. Several things went right for Hillary Clinton and wrong for her rival.

• She successfully dominated the conversation during the last five days of the contest, combining words on the trail (and more importantly, in the endlessly repeating news cycle on the Internet, cable and broadcast TV and radio, and newspapers) with her "3 a.m." commercials raising doubts about Obama's experience.

• Obama didn't close the deal, opening a new front in this political war before locking things up in Texas. He was still battling with Clinton when he began taking on Republican John McCain. Had that worked, we'd all be talking about what a nice job of positioning he'd done to move her out of the spotlight and convince voters it was a two-person contest. Instead, McCain's response to Obama's nudging reinforced Clinton's attacks on Obama's experience.

• Obama, who was well behind Clinton in most mid-February polls, appeared to catch up. He narrowly won the state's early vote, but her strong close — and the fact that some of her voters waited until Election Day — put him away.

People who made their decisions in the last three days went her way 64-36 percent, according to exit polling. That's with both candidates working the state, but Clinton and her gang running a particularly tough schedule. She won in more than a dozen counties where he'd taken the early vote. More importantly, she widened her margins in several counties where she led the early voting.

When the votes were tallied, Obama won in just 24 of the state's 254 counties. But that small number hides some big counties: Collin, Dallas, Denton, Fort Bend, Harris, Tarrant, and Williamson. (One county, Coryell, landed the tennis ball right on top of the net: 2,434 people voted for Clinton, and 2,434 voted for Obama, according to the Texas Secretary of State.)

Clinton ended up winning in 15 counties where she was behind in early voting. Obama didn't flip any counties from her early vote win column to his side on Election Day.

And to improve her numbers at the end, she had to win big on Election Day; in fact, she got 53.4 percent of that day's vote (her final overall number was 50.9 percent). And even in counties where she ultimately lost, she cut into Obama's numbers.

A big, fat example: Clinton only got 43.3 percent of the Harris County vote, but in early voting, she got 37.4 percent, and on Election Day, she got 47.9 percent. She lost the county, and not by a little. But that change brought almost 24,000 votes into her column; when all the votes were counted, she beat Obama by 101,029, with almost a quarter of the margin attributable to the Harris County turnaround between Friday, when early voting ended, and Tuesday, when the polls opened for political business. That happened, on a smaller scale, in counties across the state.

Obama arguably ran a better race on the ground. The answer to that will come, officially, at the end of the month when Democratic county and senatorial district conventions produce the first solid look at delegate counts. Clinton won the delegates distributed by primary voting (65-61); Obama's supporters expect to win those distributed according to raucous caucuses held after the polls closed this week. That second group is a better measure of the campaigns' ground troops.

One observer — Democratic numbers wiz Leland Beatty — said Obama "didn't go after that part of Texas that is like Kansas," ignoring a huge swath of West Texas that behaves, politically, like large sections of Kansas where Obama beat Clinton in earlier contests. Another — Republican pollster Mike Baselice — thought late voting by Hispanics and other groups important to Clinton helped turn the result. GOP pollster Daron Shaw says it might be simpler than that: "I think we're overanalyzing this a little bit. Obama had his first bad week in months, and that played in."

Election Night Notebook

John McCain and Hillary Clinton got the headlines. Incumbents had a pretty good night. Eight House incumbents were defeated and a ninth faces a runoff. But legislators in both parties held off well-financed attacks. And what about Battle Craddick — the fight over votes for House Speaker Tom Craddick? It was a mixed bag, but by our count, he picked up a couple of votes.

Democrats

Rick Noriega got just enough votes to avoid a runoff in his U.S. Senate bid against non-dancer Gene Kelly... U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes of El Paso cruised to an easy win... Mark Thompson had a wide lead in the race for Railroad Commission, but not wide enough to avoid a runoff with Dale Henry... Sam Houston beat Baltazar Cruz in the race for Supreme Court (7); Linda Reyna Yañez eked out a two-point win over Susan Criss in the race for Place 8 on that court... Mary Helen Berlanga won reelection to the State Board of Education... Joe Jaworski easily defeated Bryan Hermann in the first step of a challenge to state Sen. Mike Jackson, R-La Porte... Sen. Judith Zaffirini won easily over Rene Barrientos, who has 21.4 percent of the vote in spite of the fact that he didn't campaign.

In state House contests, Donnie Dippel easily won the race to replace Rep. Robby Cook, who isn't seeking reelection... Rep. Doro Olivo held onto a very narrow lead over Ron Reynolds, who tromped her in the early voting. She won by 187 votes... Rep. Kino Flores managed a four-point win over Sandra Rodriguez... Rep. Rene Oliveira won easily... Rep. Aaron Peña beat challenger Eddie Saenz by about five points after a nasty rematch... Rep. Juan Escobar lost by almost eight points to Tara Rios Ybarra... Rep. Dawnna Dukes coasted to reelection after a pitched political fight with Brian Thompson... Rep. Paul Moreno, with 48.4 percent, lost to Marisa Marquez, after winning the early vote... Rep. Roberto Alonzo won easily... Rep. Kevin Bailey lost to Armando Lucio Walle by a wide margin... Carol Alvarado easily won the primary race to replace Rick Noriega in the state Legislature... Rep. Borris Miles fell hard to former Rep. Al Edwards, who lost their last contest in 2006. Edwards had 61.1 percent... and Reps. Garnet Coleman and Jessica Farrar both won easily.

Republicans

John McCain, with 51.2 percent, won Texas and clinched the National GOP nomination, while Mike Huckabee, with 37.8 percent, quit the race and endorsed McCain. Former hot ticket Ron Paul got 5.1 percent... U.S. Sen. John Cornyn won easily, with challenger Larry Kilgore mustering 18.5 percent... U.S. Reps. Sam Johnson, Ralph Hall, and Ron Paul walloped their challengers... The winners in the free-for-all in CD-10 — a ten-candidate race for the seat once held by Tom DeLay — are Shelley Sekula Gibbs, at 29.7 percent, who briefly held the spot before losing to U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, a Democrat, and Pete Olson, at 20.7 percent. There will be a runoff... Lyle Larson finished well ahead of Quico Canseco in CD-23; he'll face U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio... Court of Criminal Appeals Judge Paul Womack beat back a GOP challenger by a 2-to-1 margin... State Board of Education Member Pat Hardy won with an 18-point cushion over her challenger... Two state senators — Tommy Williams of The Woodlands and Craig Estes of Wichita Falls, both won their primaries without breaking a sweat.

In Texas House races, Rep. Betty Brown beat Wade Gent by 635 votes... Rep. Byron Cook won by almost 3-to-1... Rep. Charlie Howard, with two opponents, got 64.6 percent... Randy Weber won the three-man race to replace Rep. Mike O'Day of Pearland without a runoff... In HD-52, where incumbent Rep. Mike Krusee isn't running for reelection, there will be a runoff: Dee Hobbs finished first, with 31.8 percent, followed by Bryan Daniel and John Gordon, who were just 83 votes apart... In the race to replace Rep. Dianne White Delisi, R-Temple, Martha Tyroch finished first and Ralph Sheffield was second. There will be a runoff there... Rep. Charles "Doc" Anderson easily held off Jonathan Sibley in Waco, getting 63.5 percent... Rep. Phil King easily defeated former Weatherford Mayor Joe Tison after a noisy race where both candidates pulled in thousands of dollars from outside the district. King got 65.5 percent to Tison's 34.5 percent... Rep. Jerry Madden survived a challenge from Jon Cole... Rep. Nathan Macias lost by 38 votes — out of 29,324 cast — to Doug Miller. That's a recount candidate... Rep. Pat Haggerty lost badly to Dee Margo, who got 56.6 percent... Rep. Buddy West faces a runoff after finishing second to Tryon Lewis. The challenger got 44 percent; West got 38.4 percent... Rep. Delwin Jones won easily in Lubbock, as did Rep. Bill Zedler in Arlington... Mark Shelton landed far ahead of the pack in the Fort Worth race for a full term in the seat formerly held by Anna Mowery... Rep. Charlie Geren easily defeated Tom Annunziato... Rep. Thomas Latham lost to former Mesquite Mayor Mike Anderson... Angie Chen Button was first in the race to replace Rep. Fred Hill of Richardson, but she faces a runoff against former Garland City Councilman Randy Dunning... Rep. Frank Corte won easily... Rep. Joe Crabb got 55 percent against two challengers... Rep. John Davis won his race 2-to-1... Allen Fletcher knocked off Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale, winning by about five points... And Ken Legler and Fred Roberts led the race to replace Rep. Robert Talton, who gave up his spot to run for Congress. That's going to a runoff.

Game Over

This week's winners include a number of folks who are, for all intents and purposes, done for the year because they have no major party opposition. [A list of what's on the November ballot is available here or in our Files section at TexasWeekly.com]

In Congress, it's a list of one: U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-El Paso.

In the state Senate, it's two Republicans: Sens. Tommy Williams of The Woodlands and Craig Estes of Wichita Falls.

In the House, the Republican list includes Reps. Byron Cook of Corsicana, Charlie Howard of Sugar Land, Charles "Doc" Anderson of Waco, Jerry Madden of Richardson, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, and a new guy, Allen Fletcher of Tomball, who defeated Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale.

The House's list of Democrats with missions accomplished: Reps. Kino Flores of Palmview, Rene Oliveira of Brownsville, Aaron Peña of Edinburg, Dawnna Dukes of Austin, and Roberto Alonzo of Dallas. Several newbies are on the Democratic list of representatives-nearly-elect: Tara Rios Ybarra of South Padre Island, Marisa Marquez of El Paso, and Armando Lucio Walle and former Rep. Al Edwards of Houston. Each knocked off an incumbent, respectively: Juan Escobar, Paul Moreno, Kevin Bailey, and Borris Miles.

Dud

Making an issue of House Speaker Tom Craddick turned out to be a nonstarter in most parts of the state, both for opponents of the speaker and for people who argued that he needs more support. This sort of thing can work: former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay got blamed for some losses after he became politically radioactive. But in this election, Craddick didn't set off the Geiger counters in the same way, among either opponents or supporters.

That wasn't the only good news for the speaker. He picked up one or two votes on Tuesday, depending on how you count and on which candidate promises you think will last until the next election of a speaker in January 2009.

Eight House members got beat this week. Nine more who served during the last legislative session either resigned or decided not to seek reelection. A number of legislators from both parties still face tough fights in November.

The short version is that the primaries didn't answer the question of who'll be speaker next session. Craddick's still in it but doesn't have anything locked up.

The speaker issue could heat up in the general election, when Democrats can be rallied against Republican management and Republicans can be rallied in favor of it. And a new federal court ruling will let outsiders play in the speaker's race — through political action committees and other guises — for the first time.

It'll be tight, no matter what. There are 79 Republicans and 71 Democrats in the Texas House right now. When Craddick won his first term, breaking the century-old Democratic hold on the seat, there were 88 Republicans. It takes 76 votes to become speaker, and more support than that to comfortably hold that job.

Elimination Round: The Runoffs

Tuesday's primary produced a handful of runoff races. The drill: Early voting starts March 31 and runs for five days. Election Day is April 8.

Five of the tiebreakers are for open statehouse seats. One's an incumbent fighting for another term. And one features the two survivors of a 10-way contest for the chance to challenge an incumbent Democratic congressman. All of those contests are on the Republican side.

The Democratic primary produced only one state race runoff: Mark Thompson of Hamilton didn't get quite enough votes to avoid another month of work in his bid for Texas Railroad Commission. Now he faces a runoff with Dale Henry of Lampasas, who previously ran for that post as a Republican. Henry, if he makes it into the general election, will be the first candidate to run against each of the three members of a sitting Railroad Commission. He's already lost to Victor Carrillo and Elizabeth Ames Jones; Republican Michael Williams is the incumbent seeking reelection this time.

The herd of elephants in CD-22 is down to two — Dr. Shelley Sekula Gibbs, with 29.7 percent of the primary votes, and Pete Olson, with 20.7 percent.

Olson put out a press release calling for five debates with his opponent — one in each county in the district and one on a local radio station. "We're going to start talking about something different — the specific issues," Olson said.

"Shelley thinks that's a brilliant idea," said C.B. Currier with the Sekula Gibbs campaign. Currier said they'd pull back from big media ads and focus on the small community of voters likely to stay in the game until April.

"They have a lot of work to do," said Kevyn Bazzy. "But in a way it's easier because if you don't get a good vibe from a voter, you can mark that one off and move on." Bazzy, who received less than two percent in the primary, said Olson's military experience has a chance of standing out now that the other military men — Brian Klock, Ryan Rowley and Bazzy himself — are out.

"I'm excited for the voters that they have two good choices," said Jim Squier, who ended up with 1.8 percent on Election Day. He wouldn't name a favorite.

It's a double-edged sword for Sekula Gibbs and Olson. A one-on-one race is more intense, but easier on candidates and voters — the two will try to win new support but won't have to do it from a ten-candidate crowd. Sekula Gibbs ran before, losing a write-in campaign to Democrat Nick Lampson; that and her short-but-turbulent tenure finishing Tom DeLay's term could draw institutional opposition to her from other politicians. Watch the endorsements.

It was a tight race in HD-52, where Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock, decided not to seek reelection. The work isn't done for prosecutor Dee Hobbs, who got 31.8 percent, and insurance executive Bryan Daniel, with 30 percent. John Gordon was 83 votes behind, with 29.2 percent (and says he won't seek a recount).

"There were three of us spending a lot of money, and we were all three working real hard," said Gordon. "One of us three was going to come up short." He said he hasn't decided who he'll endorse or even who has the best chance to win in April — but he's certain they'll throw in a lot of cash over the next few weeks.

Hobbs and Daniel seem to be friendly foes.

"I wasn't sure what kind of campaign we were going to have," Hobbs said. "It's been a very friendly race."

"I'm very pleased with the outcome," said Daniel. "I'm ready to move forward and I hope we continue to campaign on the issues."

Neither candidate is changing their campaign strategy. Both say it's time to focus on keeping the voters energized for another round.

Martha Tyroch and Ralph Sheffield have another month of campaigning ahead in HD-55. She led with 36.1 percent; he ended up with 31.1 percent.

After finishing with 20.4 percent, Mike Pearce sent a personal thank-you to his supporters and said he'll endorse Sheffield. "He is a good man, and we need him to win this race, as the alternative would be deleterious to District 55," Pearce said in the e-mail.

"It was very obvious that there would be a runoff and we were prepared," said Tyroch, a former member of the Temple City Council. "We are ready, I'm not tired at all."

John Alaniz, who ended up with 12.4 percent, said both candidates have asked for his endorsement, but he's still wavering.

"I'm not surprised at the outcome... at the end of the day, it was who had the most money," Alaniz said. "I think the two strongest conservatives were the two that had the least money."

Tyroch raised $145,557 so far. Sheffield raised $69,713 and loaned his campaign another $88,546. They both spent a lot on ads and start Round Two with about equal standing.

Rep. Buddy West of Odessa made his own pickle, telling the full House at the end of last session that he'd enjoyed his eight terms in office but that, for health reasons, he was moving on and wouldn't seek reelection. By the time his health improved and his mind was changed, the pickle was sour — he'd attracted the attention of other Republicans in HD-81. Now he's fighting for his life. He finished second in a four-way race on Tuesday with 38.4 percent — enough to make the runoff with front-running Tryon Lewis, an attorney and former judge who won the support of 44 percent of the voters.

Angie Chen Button and Randy Dunning are headed for a runoff in the HD-112. She led with 37.9 percent to his 35 percent. Jim Shepherd wasn't that far behind with 27.1 percent.

"It was a very nice campaign in the first round," said Button's consultant Craig Murphy. "But [Dunning] started attacking at the very end. We're not going to let him get away with that now." Murphy said he thought Shepherd was the stronger opponent, but he just got a late start and didn't run a negative campaign.

"It's a classic runoff between someone who's got a proven conservative record and someone who does not," said Kevin Brannon, Dunning's consultant. That campaign is zeroing in on political contributions Button, a former DART board member, made to Dallas Democrats, including U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, state Rep. Terri Hodge and Sen. Royce West.

Shepherd had the endorsement of incumbent Fred Hill – now Shepherd is deciding who he'll back for the runoff. He said he's taking a few days to figure it out. "I know that an amazing amount of money will be spent over the next few weeks, because a lot has already been spent," Shepherd said.

Sidebar: A local blog in the district— suziblitz.com — backs Dunning, but they got pranked by an anonymous computer wiz who pasted ads against dunning all over their website. That's been cured now, they think.

District 144 is heading for a run-off between Ken Legler and Fred Roberts. Legler led Round One with 45.9 percent of the votes to Roberts' 39.5 percent. John Hughey got 14.6 percent.

Incumbent Robert Talton ran (unsuccessfully) in CD-22 and the statehouse seat is open. He's backing Roberts.

"On a one to ten scale, I'm a seven right now," said Roberts, a Pasadena school board trustee. "I'd be a ten if I won by 51 percent, but I fell a little short."

Allen Blakemore is consulting for Legler, a businessman who served on the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality and is now chairman of the EPA's national advisory board. Blakemore said Roberts got a lot of the "school crowd" to the polls.

"My attitude toward runoffs is turnout, turnout, turnout," Blakemore said. "It's usually pretty low, so you're back to the party faithful. We know who our people are."

Legler has big business support. PACs from Chevron, AT&T and Valero contributed to his campaign.

But the third-place finisher isn't a fan. "Mr. Legler is totally unqualified," Hughey said. "I have a feeling he's not going to win. He's a tool of the lobbies and they will spend a lot of money to try and get him elected."

He's still deciding whether he'll back Roberts: "It all depends on how various people act in the upcoming days."

by Karie Meltzer

Political People, Political Notes

Roland Gutierrez was the only candidate who filed to run for the rest of Rep. Robert Puente's term in office, making a formality of that special election. He's also the only candidate on the ballot for a full term next fall. Unless something truly weird develops, the former San Antonio City councilman, a Democrat, will be the new representative from HD-119.

Kenneth Besserman joins the Comptroller's office as an assistant general counsel. He left Sen. Rodney Ellis' employ late last year.

Fresh meat at the Texas Youth Commission: Alfonso Royal, criminal justice advisor to Gov. Rick Perry, is the new chief of staff at TYC. He'll report to Richard Nedelkoff, the conservator of that agency.

Spin cycle: U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, D-Stafford, got more votes in his uncontested Democratic primary than his ten challengers altogether got in their noisy primary. He doesn't mention the race at the top of the ticket, which drew the numbers he's boasting about. He'll face the winner of a runoff between Pete Olson and Shelley Sekula Gibbs.

In the Democratic primary, some big counties produced more than half of their total turnout during the 11 days of early voting. Among them: Bexar, Brazoria, Collin, Denton, Hidalgo, Lubbock, Travis, and Webb. On the GOP side, the biggies included Brazoria, El Paso, Hidalgo, Lubbock, and Webb. On a statewide level, 40.4 percent of Republicans voted early as against 44.8 percent of Democrats.

Quotes of the Week

Former Texas Secretary of State Jack Rains, reacting in the Austin American-Statesman to John McCain's ascendancy: "It's kind of like when your daughter shows up with a boy she says she's going to marry. You'd better find a way to like him, even if you don't, even if he's funny looking, because he's it."

Former Texas Democratic Party Chairman Charles Soechting, quoted by The Dallas Morning News about perennial candidate Gene Kelly: "He's like a cockroach; he just makes a mess wherever he goes. He's not beneficial to anyone."

Eli Davis, a Democratic caucus chairman in Dallas, telling The Wall Street Journal that more than 1,000 people showed up there on Election Night: "I've been trying to get to 100 for 30 years."

U.S. Rep. Sam Johnson, R-Plano, endorsing his former fellow POW John McCain and describing their relationship to The Dallas Morning News: "We talk, but we're not that close... He's a senator and I'm a congressman, that's part of the problem. And you know, we don't always agree."

State Rep. Pat Haggerty, R-El Paso, quoted in the El Paso Times on his disagreements with GOP leaders before losing his reelection bid on Tuesday: "I wasn't elected to be a Republican. I was elected to represent my district."


Texas Weekly: Volume 25, Issue 10, 10 March 2008. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2008 by Printing Production Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 302-5703 or email biz@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 288-6598.

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

This week, bloggers are reviewing the results of the presidential primaries. They're also looking back on the outcomes of Congressional, statewide and state House races. And there's more.

* * * * *

Oval Office Outcomes

KVUE's Political Junkie, for one, is feeling down now that Tuesday's over. Meanwhile, In the Pink Texas revels in the moment of Hillary Clinton's victory.

Clinton's toughness reminds BurkaBlog of a certain Speaker of the House, and Burnt Orange Report thinks a Democrat could win Texas in the general.

Here are county-by-county maps of the Democratic presidential primary results from Burnt Orange and from Greg's Opinion. (Greg also has maps of presidential results in Harris County and results of the Democratic U.S. Senate primary by county, plus a table of Senate votes by media market.)

Burnt Orange posts arguments that Clinton won Texas and that Barack Obama won Texas, while Postcards from the Lege, the Austin American-Statesman's blog, has word from the Clinton camp and the Obama camp themselves. Meanwhile, McBlogger wants Democrats to pass a resolution regarding chips and salsa during their precinct conventions.

Redneck Mother, Half Empty and Texas Kaos relate their experiences at Tuesday night caucuses. "We survived," says Houtopia. "[W]e blew it," says Rhetoric & Rhythm.

Where have all the superdelegates gone? wonders Texas Blue, who has video of Barack Obama in Fort Worth, an Obama volunteer in Dallas and Clinton in Dallas. Here's a convenient archive of Blue's audio and video. And PoliTex, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's blog, has YouTube clips of Texas caucuses.

Tex Parte Blogreports from John McCain's victory party in Dallas, while Walker Report has photos from a McCain visit to Mi Tierra restaurant in Bexar County.

The Dallas Morning News's Trail Blazers has a meltdown over the impatient national media, while PoliTex has a three-parter on "caucus chaos": here, here and here. And Trail Blazers recaps their reporters' presidential prognostications.

And B and B wins our Headline of the Week award for a post on the Democratic caucuses: "Where were you all last time?"

* * * * *

Congressional conclusions

Capitol Annex is not gracious in the defeat of Dan Grant by Larry Joe Doherty in CD-10, while Half Empty wonders which candidate in CD-22 will be easier to beat by incumbent Nick Lampson. And Rhetoric reflects on Lyle Larson's victory in the CD-23 Democratic Primary.

Blue interviews CD-24 Democrat Tom Love, while Kaos reports that CD-4 incumbent Ralph Hall has agreed to debate Democrat Glenn Melancon. And Burnt Orange takes a look at CD-32, concluding, "We can beat Pete Sessions in November."

* * * * *

Statewide stuff

Burnt Orange has an overview of the state Supreme Court race, and Half Empty inspects the two remaining candidates in the Democratic runoff for State Railroad Commissioner.

* * * * *

House Yield

Political Junkie has a list of pro- and anti-Craddick House casualties. Burka says "the primary was a big plus for Craddick... but these fall races are far from won." And Dos Centavos reacts to results from HD-127.

I won! I won! says Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Edinburg, in A Capitol Blog. And Rio Grande Valley Politics calls out Peña for a perceived breach in political etiquette.

* * * * *

And So On...

Austin Political Report didn't forget Gov. Rick Perry's birthday on Tuesday, while Rhetoric remembers Dungeons and Dragon's inventor Gary Gygax, who died last week.

Professors-R-Squared, everybody's favorite Houston poly-sci wonks, cleared out and wiped their site clean. And Houston's Clear Thinkers is scaling down his operation. But Texas Safety Forum is back, with three posts on the CD-22 primary, here, here and here.

Anything you've ever wanted to know about Daylight Savings Time and more, via Mike Falick's Blog.

Texas Blue, the Houston Chronicle's blog, has video reactions to Tuesday's primary from Texas Republican chair Tina Benkiser and from Texas Democratic chair Boyd Richie.

K.C. Jones is the new political director for the GOP's "Texas Victory 2008" campaign, says Blue.

Capitol Crowd is selling mini-staff directories, and Grits for Breakfast is looking at some races from a criminal justice perspective.

Private prison contractor Corrections Corporation of America spent $2.5 million lobbying the feds in 2007, says Texan Prison Bid'ness. And Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson said Big Bend National Park doesn't want the Christmas Mountains, much to PoliTex's surprise.


This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is spending the spring in the mid-Atlantic region. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

State election officials have asked for an investigation of voting in a Republican House race that was decided by just 38 votes.More than 200 people complained about the GOP primary in HD-73, according to a spokesman for the Texas Secretary of State. Lawyers there, concerned about allegations that people were counting ballots before the polls closed, turned the matter over to Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott for investigation. In unofficial returns, former New Braunfels Mayor Doug Miller defeated freshman Rep. Nathan Macias, R-Bulverde, by 38 votes out of 29,324 cast. A count now underway has so far confirmed that number, though there was one county still to be counted when we checked. Only two votes were in question there, however — not enough to swing things the incumbent's way. The post-election debate centers on Box 5 in Gillespie County. Officials there ran short of ballots, so they made copies, let voters use those, and then did a hand-count of the results. It took until the wee hours of the morning to get a full count, and some of Macias' supporters aren't happy with the process or the result. They've raised questions about the extra ballots, the slow count, the fact that Miller's sister-in-law was initially among the vote-counters (they started the counting over again after asking her to move along), and about whether some of the officials involved were more friendly to the challenger than to the incumbent. Miller's folk counter that Macias supporters were also among the counters and that the results were the same no matter who was counting. What's gone to Abbott are allegations that some of the counters were tabulating votes before the polls closed. That's illegal whether it helps a particular candidate or not, though the complaints in this case came from the loser's side. Macias lost in early voting, but pulled to almost even on Election Day. In Gillespie County, Miller won by 1,131 votes. He won 63.6 percent in early voting there and 60 percent when all the votes were counted. But Macias won in the other three counties in the district, by 28 votes in Bandera County, by 820 in Comal County, and by 245 in Kendall County. (They split the counties in early voting, with Bandera and Kendall favoring Macias, and Comal and Gillespie favoring Miller.) Since Gillespie's votes were the last ones counted, at least some Macias followers hit the sack that night thinking their guy had won a close race. The investigation is separate from the counting going on now. If the margin remains tight after this count, Macias can ask for (and pay for) a recount. If that falls short, his camp could go to court to contest the election. And if the AG turns something up, the results could be questioned on that basis.

The leading tort reform group in Texas gave $20,000 to a candidate whose law firm was suing Oklahoma poultry producers on a contingency contract with that state's Democratic attorney general.

Former state Rep. Bill Keffer, R-Dallas — defeated in 2006 but in a rematch this year with Rep. Allen Vaught, D-Dallas — received $20,000 from Texans for Lawsuit Reform in December, as the two candidates geared up for the elections. He also got a $5,000 donation from Houston developer Richard Weekley, one of TLR's leading lights.

At the time, Miller Keffer Bullock Pedigo was one of three firms under contract with Oklahoma AG W.A. Drew Edmondson to sue poultry firms in the Illinois River watershed. Edmondson contends the tons of waste from those operations pollute the water. He signed up the three firms in July 2004 to handle the case and agreed to pay them one third of what they win. He also agreed to pay expenses, but capped what the firms can make — fees plus expenses — at 50% of what they win in court.

Keffer says the lawsuit is being handled by his partners, and that the Miller Keffer firm is actually more a "marketing partnership" than a traditional law firm. He's not financially involved in the lawsuit, he says: "I'm not involved in it... I don't have any financial interest in it." Keffer said he's not on the hook for expenses incurred by the firm, and won't get a check if the lawyers win the lawsuit for the state. A spokesman for the Oklahoma AG says Keffer wasn't one of the lawyers with whom they worked. And the issue was never raised in this or past races when Keffer won the support of tort reformers in his bids for state office. As of January, his name is out of the deal altogether. In January, the state broke off its arrangement with Randy Miller, one of Keffer's partners. Another, Louis Bullock, took over the business. And Keffer's name is no longer tied to the deal in any way; Bullock, a partner in another law firm, is doing the business under that banner now. Edmondson's spokesman gave no reason for the breakup, saying that was a matter of attorney-client privilege. Keffer shared a copy of the disengagement letter.

The defendants sued unsuccessfully in federal court last year to throw out the law firms (that group Tyson Poultry, Tyson Chicken, Cobb-Vantress, Simmons Foods, Willow Brook Foods, Cal-Maine Foods, Cal-Maine Farms, George’s, George’s Farms, and Peterson Farms). They say the AG violated both the U.S. and Oklahoma constitutions by hiring firms on a contingent fee basis (that's the same arrangement Texas used to sue big tobacco companies in the 1990s, and it brought controversy here, too).

The suit against the chicken interest got national attention: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Tort Reform Association filed briefs supporting the poultry interests and saying the private lawyers shouldn't be doing state business.

Keffer says he was never financially involved in the lawsuit, though the Dallas Republican's name was on the law firm's flag and thus in the contracts with the state. He said he didn't know much about it; in fact, he didn't even know his firm was no longer involved until a reporter started asking about the case. And he says the issue has never come up in his conversations with TLR and other tort reformers.

A spokeswoman for TLR confirms that, saying the group "did know know about that poultry lawsuit, and we are looking into it."

That political committee formed by gambling interests to play in state elections got the attention of Austin lawyer Bill Crocker (who's also the Republican National Committeeman from Texas).

He filed a complaint with Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle about Texans for Economic Development PAC and its use of corporate money. You might remember this from a few weeks ago: The operators of TEDPAC refiled their campaign finance reports to show a separation between their corporate and non-corporate funds, so as to avoid tripping laws that prevent corporations and unions from messing in elections for state office. Crocker didn't buy that explanation, and asked Earle's office to investigate. That office got the letter but hasn't made any comment on it.

• Watching the race for Speaker of the House? Speaker Tom Craddick hosted a fundraiser for three March 4 primary winners: Mike Anderson of Mesquite, Dee Margo of El Paso, and Randy Weber of Pearland.

• Musical chairs: Rep. Brandon Creighton, R-Conroe, is the new vice chairman of the House Committee on Natural Resources. Rep. Robert Puente, the chairman, retired. Craddick moved the vice-chairman, Rep. Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton, R-Mauriceville, into that spot, and Creighton into Hamilton's spot.

You'd think these people had never run against each other...

Ray McMurrey, the Corpus Christi teacher who ran for U.S. Senate in the Democratic primary, says he'll back Rick Noriega in the November election against Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. Noriega finished first in that race with just enough votes to avoid a runoff with the Gene Kelly who doesn't dance in the movies. McMurrey was third, and he finished an endorsement note with a link to the winner's fundraising site on the Internet.

• Republican Pete Olson picked up endorsements from 13 members of the Texas congressional delegation in his runoff fight against former U.S. Rep. Shelley Sekula Gibbs in CD-22. Gibbs had that gig for a few months after Tom DeLay left office, then lost to Nick Lampson. She and Olson are vying for a shot at Lampson in November. Olson snagged some of her former colleagues, including U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (his former boss), and U.S. Reps. Michael Conaway, John Culberson, Louie Gohmert, Kay Granger, Jeb Hensarling, Sam Johnson, Kenny Marchant, Michael McCaul, Randy Neugebauer, Pete Sessions, Lamar Smith and Mac Thornberry. That bunch lent their names to a fundraising effort. Olson also picked up endorsements from Fort Bend County Judge Bob Hebert and Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace (who once considered running for the congressional seat). One more note from CD-22: Olson fired up a new website whacking Gibbs for her votes on the Houston City Council. It's at www.ShelleySaysAnything.com.

• Rep. Buddy West, R-Odessa, picked up endorsements from the two losers in the four-candidate GOP primary in HD-81. West came in second to former state District Judge Tryon Lewis. Randy Rives and Jesse Gore now both say they're throwing their support to the incumbent. Gore told the local paper he was painting over his signs so that GORE would now read GO WEST.

• In the HD-52 race to replace Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock, Candidates Three and Four endorsed Candidate One in the runoff. Both John Gordon and Vivian Sullivan say they’ll support Dee Hobbs over Bryan Daniel in the April race. Hobbs, Daniel, and Gordon finished within a few hundred votes of each other in the primary.

• In HD-55, Ralph Sheffield picked up an endorsement from John Alaniz. He already had Mike Pearce's nod. There's only one other candidate left, and she — Martha Tyroch — is in the runoff with Sheffield. That's the seat now held by Rep. Dianne White Delisi, R-Temple.

Randy Dunning, a former Garland City Council member trying to win Rep. Fred Hill's seat, won endorsements from a pack of conservative legislators that includes Sen. Bob Deuell of Greenville and Reps. Betty Brown of Terrell, Dan Flynn of Van, Bryan Hughes of Mineola, Jim Jackson of Carrollton, Jodie Laubenberg of Parker, Phil King of Weatherford, Tan Parker of Flower Mound, and Ken Paxton of McKinney. Dunning's in a runoff with Angie Chen Button for the GOP nomination in HD-112.

• The Travis County District Attorney race — of interest here because that "local" office is the one that prosecutes miscreants in state politics and government — is in runoff mode. The incumbent, Ronnie Earle, isn't seeking reelection. Four candidates — all assistants in his office — ran in the first round. The survivors are Earle's first assistant, Rosemary Lehmberg, and Mindy Montford, a prosecutor who's also the daughter of former legislator and Texas Tech Chancellor John Montford, who's now an AT&T exec. Lehmberg has Earle's endorsement, and just got a nod from Gary Cobb, who finished third.

Political People and their Moves

Tom Pauken, a Dallas mediation attorney and the former chairman of the Texas Republican Party, will join the Texas Workforce Commission as chairman in the "public member" slot (one from business, one from labor, one from the public). Texas Labor immediately blasted that appointment, saying Gov. Rick Perry's pick "will continue the agency’s bias toward management and away from workers." Becky Moeller, president of the Texas AFL-CIO, pointed to the GOP platform when Pauken was chairman and its call to abolish minimum wages and prevailing wage laws. She says the unions will oppose it when the appointment goes to the Senate. Pauken disavowed those bits of the GOP platform, calling himself a "supporter of the labor movement" and saying he's never taken a position opposing minimum wages. " I don't know what they're talking about..." he said. "I hope we can work together. I'm baffled that they would not call or ask about my positions before saying these things." Pauken, who headed ACTION during the Reagan Administration, says he wants TWC to specialize in helping veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan, like the other agency did for veterans of the Vietnam conflict.

Diane Rath is resigning from the Texas Workforce Commission this month, after 12 years there. TWC's chair is waiting for Senate confirmation to a federal appointment; George W. Bush, who as governor first put her at workforce, appointed her last July to an assistant secretary post at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed:

Carin Barth of Houston and Tom Clowe of Waco to the Texas Public Safety Commission and put Allan Polunsky of San Antonio in the chairman's seat. Polunsky, an attorney, was on the Texas Board of Criminal Justice for 13 years. Barth is president and co-founder of LB Capital, an investment firm. Clowe, until recently a member of the state's lottery commission, is a nursing home investor and ranch land developer. There's still one empty slot on that panel, but it's got four members for the first time, and two female members for the first time. Polunsky dispatched Clowe to work on possible reorganization of the Department of Public Safety, Barth to dig into the agency's budget, and tapped Commissioner Elizabeth Anderson to take the commission's spot on the Texas Racing Commission and to take a look at the agency's intelligence database projects and information technology. (Coastal Alert: Polunsky asked the agency staff what it would take to move the regional office now in Corpus Christi to San Antonio.)

Fernando Reyes Jr. of San Antonio to the Texas Lottery Commission. He's the president of Reyes Industries and Reyes Automotive Group, and Perry put him on that panel until early 2011.

Steven Weinberg of Colleyville to the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission. He's the retired associate director of the Peace Corps, and has degrees in medicine and law. He'll replace Gail Madden of Dallas.

Travis Bryan III of Bryan, the former Brazos County District Attorney, to preside in the 272nd District Court. He'll have to run in the next election for a full term, and was already on the ballot (alone). Bryan was most recently a criminal defense lawyer. He'll replace Rick Davis, who gave up the robes to run for district attorney.

• To the newly created Cancer Prevention and Research Institute Oversight Committee, watching the state dole out $3 billion in grants approved by voters in November: Malcolm Gillis, former president of Rice University and now a professor there; Jeanne Phillips, an exec at Hunt Consolidated in Dallas; and Scott Sanders of Austin, owner and CEO of River City Sportswear.

Carol Becker of Aledo, Joyce McCown Odom of San Antonio, and Norberto Salinas of Mission to the Texas Funeral Services Commission. Becker is a retired counselor; McCown is a retired Delta Airlines flight attendant; and Salinas, former mayor of Mission, is president of S&F Developers and Builders.

Malcolm Beckendorff of Katy to the Texas Facilities Commission. Beckendorff is an exec with Costello and a former city councilman.

Two appointments buried (until now) in the heaps of candidate press releases around here: The Guv named Janiece Longoria to the Board of Regents at the University of Texas. She's a Houston attorney (Ogden, Gibson, Broocks & Longoria) and a Port of Houston Authority Commissioner. She got both of her degrees —undergrad and law — at UT Austin. She replaced Robert Estrada of Fort Worth. Perry also named James Herring of Amarillo to the middle seat at the Texas Water Development Board, and named two new members to that panel: Joe Crutcher of Palestine and Ed Vaughn of Boerne to that board. The new chairman is president and CEO of Friona Industries, a cattle-feeding company. Crutcher is co-chairman of East Texas National Bank, and Vaughan is an attorney.

Deborah Fulton takes over as head of the legal division at the Texas Legislative Council. She's been around TLC for 17 years, and replaces Mark Brown, who left the agency earlier this year.

Talmadge Heflin is leaving the Republican Party of Texas, where he was executive director, for a fulltime gig with the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Eric Opiela, a former Capitol aide and one-time House candidate, will replace Heflin at the state GOP. Heflin, meanwhile, will become director of the Center for Fiscal Policy at TPPF. The former House Appropriations chairman has been working with the foundation for a little more than two years.

House Speaker Tom Craddick named Kay Alexander of Abilene to the Commission on State Emergency Communications. She's with the American Heart Association.

K.C. Jones is the new political director of the GOP's Texas Victory 2008. Jones, a Midland native, was most recently attached to the Rudy Giuliani campaign for president.

Lindsey Hughes, who worked for retiring Rep. Mike Krusee, left the Pink Building to take a job with former Rep. Paul Sadler at the newly formed Wind Coalition.

Out: Todd Gallaher, chief of staff to Sen. Robert Deuell, R-Greenville, after The Dallas Morning News caught him posing as one of its reporters, and for attacking a Corpus Christi sheriff candidate under what appeared to be an email address for Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi. Gallaher resigned after the paper raised questions and said it appeared he used state computers for the candidate attack.

Deaths: Joe Wagner, former doorkeeper of the Texas House of Representatives. He was 100.

Quotes of the Week

Turner, Birnberg, Weinberg, Carrillo, and Nagin

Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Houston, talking to the Houston Chronicle about his party's delegate system: "It's time to end the Texas two-step — the music is over. Is it necessary to the democratic process, or to the candidates themselves, for these people to have to come back later in the evening after they have voted?"

Harris County Democratic Party Chairman Gerry Birnberg, quoted in the Houston Chronicle on 1,091 people who voted in both primaries there, and another 884 who voted early and again on Election Day in the Democratic primary: "[They] took literally the admonition that they should 'vote twice.' It's also a criminal offense."

Dr. Steven Weinberg, telling the Fort Worth Star-Telegram he was caught off guard when Gov. Rick Perry offered him a spot on the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission: "I told them that I, personally, don't drink."

Duval County Attorney Ricardo Carrillo, quoted by the Associated Press, describing the past electoral success of Sheriff Santiago Barrera Jr., whose 20-year tenure ended with a primary election loss last week: "He's a great politician and a terrible sheriff."

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, introducing Vagina Monologues writer Eve Ensler, taped by 99.5 FM: "How am I gonna stand up and say, I'm a vagina-friendly Mayor to these cameras after 'Chocolate City' and some of the other stuff that I've done. But you know what? I said, I'm in."