It's the kind of Special Deals for Politicians saga that can taint the whole institution: Texas lawmakers are accused of lying about their employees to obtain benefits to which those workers would not otherwise be entitled.

Some of the employees are former lawmakers; some are just favored staffers. The full-time designation qualifies workers for free health insurance that costs part-time employees hundreds of dollars each month. As it turns out, former state officeholders and state employees who want to pad their retirement benefits don't have to work full-time; a part-timer can get a full year's credit toward retirement with a minimal workload.

Political consultants — the kind of kids who grew up throwing spitballs from the back rows of their classrooms — will boil it down to something simple and sinister, and it won't be about the struggles over who's the speaker of the House. It'll be about padding benefits for former lawmakers and other employees who don't actually do the full-time work required of everyone else who gets those bennies.

The flap started with stories in the Austin American-Statesman, which pointed to three cases where current lawmakers were designating part-timers as full-timers, thus enabling those workers to qualify for health insurance usually reserved for people who put in 40 hours a week. The salaries were low, but the potential benefits were high. And in Austin, it's turned into a game of political tag centered on insider concerns, excuses, questions, and accusations.

• From the accused: "Everybody does it, and has for years. Why is this coming up now?"

• From foes of the Speaker: "All three legislators named in the first stories — Reps. Byron Cook, R-Corsicana, Jim Dunnam, D-Waco, and Craig Eiland, D-Galveston — have been vociferous critics of House Speaker Tom Craddick. Who fingered them?"

• From some insiders, some outsiders, and sooner or later, from investigators and auditors: "The personnel papers that made those and similar schemes possible were approved by each House member and turned into Craddick's House Administration Chairman, Rep. Tony Goolsby, R-Dallas. Who in that food chain is to blame?"

• From Craddick's office: "We didn't know this was going on, and want to stop it from happening again."

• From his foes: "How is it possible that management didn't know? Goolsby himself hired short-term employees — lobbyists, even — in a way that qualified them for state benefits."

While the accusation and recrimination machine is churning, open record requests from political people and reporters are flying; this will involve the whole Legislature before it's over. Craddick has asked the House General Investigating & Ethics Committee to look into it, as well as the State Auditor's Office. Travis County prosecutors have inquired with state officials about the workers, the falsified work forms, and so on.

In the case of state pension benefits, it turns out that someone who wants to game the system doesn't have to lie. They just have to read the free handbook from the Employees Retirement System and follow the instructions.

For former legislators who served for at least eight years, each additional year on the state payroll is currently worth $2,875 annually, once they start collecting their pensions.

Those pensions are based on years of service multiplied by 2.3 percent of a state judge's salary, which is currently $125,000. Former lawmakers can start collecting their pensions at age 60 if they served for at least eight years in elected office, and at age 50 if they served for at least 12 years. (They have options as to how they get their benefits, but those are the basics.) A 65-year-old former lawmaker with 16 years in the Legislature, for instance, would be eligible for an annual pension of $46,000. If she worked for a state agency for two years on top of that, the annual benefit would increase to $51,750.

The regs say the beneficiary gets credit for a month as soon as that paycheck is recorded and the retirement benefit deducted from it. If our imaginary former lawmaker is on the books for $200 monthly, and allowed the $12 deduction for retirement each month, the benefits would accumulate. As long as she's on the payroll when the monthly checks are cut, she gets the pension bennies for that month.

She doesn't even have to work full-time.

The Other Senate

State Sen. Florence Shapiro is getting ready to set up an exploratory committee to run for the U.S. Senate in anticipation of U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's resignation or retirement, sources said this afternoon.

Shapiro, a Republican, has been in the state Senate since 1993 and was a Plano city council member and Mayor before seeking state office.

She wasn't immediately available for comment.

Hutchison hasn't gone anywhere yet. But she's talked about running for governor in 2010 and has told supporters that leaving the federal office early is one option she's considering.

An early declaration from Shapiro would accomplish a couple of things: It allows her to start raising federal campaign money and puts her at the top of the speculation list of possible successors to Hutchison, at least for now.

It carries some risk, too. Hutchison and her supporters might take it as presumptuous, for what that's worth. If Hutchison does step down early, and Gov. Rick Perry appoints a successor, his choice will amount to either an endorsement for or against Shapiro.

The state Republican Party convention is about a month away, so she'll get some feedback from the regulars pretty soon. As for campaign finance, Shapiro ended last year with $853,580 in her state account. But state law is more lenient than federal law, and not all of that money would transfer to a federal race (Hutchison, who'd be going from the stricter system to the more lenient one, could move all of the $8,520,717 in her federal account to a state race).

Cutting Contest

State budgeting starts with a twist this year, with officials telling agencies to begin with current spending and to add in a two percent pay raise for state employees. Then? Show how they'd cut ten percent from that.

The letter from the governor's office and the Legislative Budget Board is a bit different this time, and the politics are weird. In recent years, they've started by telling agencies to come with in pre-cut budgets — spending plans that have to be increased to get agencies to 100 percent of what they think they need to do their jobs. That lets lawmakers add to the bare bones, looking like 181 tooth fairies in the process. This time, they're telling the agencies to come in with full budgets that the Legislature can then cut. That would make them as popular as an orphanage manager in a Charles Dickens novel, but you can probably expect the budget that gets filed as the session begins to reinstate the tooth fairy opportunities.

The people in charge want to see what it'll take to cover caseload and enrollment increases in federal entitlement, education, pension, and adult prison agencies. The rest of the agencies have to write budgets that are no bigger than the ones they've got right now. In all cases, the agencies have to list, on one hand, the items they'd cut if asked, in order. And on the other hand, the items they think they need that don't fit in current spending.

Pair this with what House Speaker Tom Craddick said last week about having $15 billion in available funds, and the next budget might be relatively painless to write, especially compared to other states, where revenues are down and budgets are tight. Comptroller Susan Combs raised a flag about that $15 billion, saying it's more like $10.7 billion. They're looking at the same number, but at different times in the budget. It's $10.7 as of last year, but Craddick thinks it'll hit $15 billion by the time the next budget starts.

Agencies have to submit budget requests in July and August. This week's letter is the first step.

Get a Calculator

Want to know where House Speaker Tom Craddick found the $15 billion he's labeled as "surplus" funds?

The Speaker told a South Texas audience the Legislature will start its next session with $15 billion unspent and in the bank.

Lawmakers knew they'd left money on the table last session. Budgeteers said they were spending less than they had available out of caution, since they didn't (and still don't) know how much money the new business margins tax would bring in.

But the numbers are boosted further by high oil prices and the taxes based on them, and from higher-than-expected sales tax revenues over the last year and more.

Look at the back of Craddick's envelope: He's starting with numbers released by Comptroller Susan Combs last year that included two significant bumps. First, she said the state had, through the end of last August, brought in $2 billion more than her earlier projections (the ones used by lawmakers writing the budget). Second, the economic good times had swollen the Rainy Day Fund to $5.7 billion, up from her estimated $4 billion. And there's the $3 billion set aside for property tax relief in the current budget. Those add up to $10.7 billion.

If you assume, as Craddick apparently does, that the numbers will continue on this trajectory, you can add $4 billion to $5 billion to that number by the end of the budget period in August 2009.

A pile of money that big will inspire two camps: Those who think particular programs are underfunded and ought to be brought to full strength, and those who think the available money should be refunded to taxpayers. Advocates for Texans without health insurance will be in the first bunch. Put Gov. Rick Perry in the second bunch; his spokesman told reporters that Perry will probably call for tax cuts and, perhaps, cash rebates to taxpayers.

State agencies have to bring their proposed budgets to the Legislature in July and August. At that point, you'll start to get an idea of how their spending proposals match up with the revenue projects. That's when you'll see the actual difference between what's needed and what's available. If you want precision in language, that's when you'll know whether there's really a surplus in the state budget or a deficit. For now, without seeing what it would cost the state to do what it's already doing (not to mention areas where it might want to add to spending), Craddick sees that as a $15 billion bouquet.

The Deciders

With Indiana and North Carolina out of the way, and Florida and Michigan still in political purgatory, the Democratic presidential candidates have nearly as many delegates at stake among the uncommitted superdelegates as in the remaining primaries

That's 223 superdelegates — including 10 in Texas — who haven't publicly agreed to support a particular candidate, and 274 delegates at stake in the remaining primaries in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota.

Texas is just a small piece of that and most of the state's 35 superdelegates are committed. So far, they're split pretty evenly, with 13 pledged to Hillary Clinton 12 pledged to Barack Obama, and ten unpledged (including three who won't be selected until the state Democratic convention on the first weekend of June). As you'd expect, the phones of the people in the undecided column are very busy this week. And then there's the matter of those three delegates-to-be-named: They'll be appointed by Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie and confirmed by the state party's governing committee. Here's the current list of where the state's superdelegates stand:

Unexpected Results

Two new polls — one done on the Internet and the other on behalf of Democratic bloggers — say the Texas race for U.S. Senate is closer than you thought. Both have U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, only four percentage points ahead of Democrat Rick Noriega.

The Research 2000 poll, done for the Daily Kos, has Cornyn at 48 percent and Noriega at 44 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error. That was a phone poll done last week. A Rasmussen online poll released earlier in the week had Cornyn at 47 and Noriega at 43; it had a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Most polls up to this point have reported a double-digit gap between the candidates, with Noriega stuck in the low 30s, and these new surveys don't reveal any changes that might underlie the new numbers. A recurring sour spot for Cornyn: Few recent polls show him getting more than 50 percent of the vote. That's not fatal, but it's a sign of potential trouble.

The results? Noriega immediately began touting the results in his fundraising messages. Cornyn's camp said the polls are flawed and that their guy still enjoys a sizable lead.

Verbatim

This email really got sent by a legislative liaison at the University of North Texas, and we have been assured — emphatically — that the lieutenant governor's office didn't have anything to do with it, although it's a charity tournament for legislators and lobbyists that's headlined by David Dewhurst. We've left everything except the phone numbers alone: punctuation, spelling, etc.

Subject: Lt. Gov. Tournament Confirmation

This email is to confirm your registration in the 2008 Lt. Governor's Golf Tournament. The Tournament is scheduled for a 1:00 pm Shotgun start May 27th at Colonial Country Club, 3735 Country Club Circle, Fort Worth Texas. If you registered for a team, this information is only being sent to you so please forward to your players. If you need to make any changes to your team please contact the Tournament Office at 817-xxx-xxxx. After the 24th of May you may call my cell phone at 817-xxx-xxxx. On the date of the outing the Colonial Golf Shop number is 817-xxx-xxxx. (Since the Club is closed that day the main number will not be answered). Registration begins at 11:00 am and lunch will be delivered to your cart prior to the tee time. That is the important info....the following are answers to various questions we have been asked.

Yes, Sen. Fraser, knowing that your golf game could have fallen apart Monday night although you have now played more consecutive days that Zaffirini has voted, the driving range will be open at noon that day. To Pat Haggerty, of course you are invited...just don't pull a mission impossible and tear off your mask to reveal that you are really Jerry Yost. To Seidlits if you can crawl down off that pile of money you made in the buyout you can play again with David Cain, just don't tell him that he is no longer a Senator...we are trying to let him down slowly.

To Mario Munoz, yes I understand, new job, new boss and after over 20 years at Capitol you have only had time to meet one legislator, yes he is playing and yes we will try to put you together. Yes, Goolsby you will again play as a single. To Rob Orr..someone has asked to play with you... being a Chairman is cool isn't it? To Time Warner we got your list of who you want to play with and the list of who you do not want AT&T to play with. To AT&T we got your list of who you want to play with and who you do not want Time Warner to play with. As soon as the pairing committee finishes with it's conflict resolution class we will get back with you. Yes, it is the good Rob Johnson (Lt. Gov's) that is playing.

Yes, Rick Donley we got your stuff and you can bring you punk a.. Champions golf game to a real course. Buster we still need your stuff, no we water Colonial from the Trinity River and you don't own it yet. To any elected official playing who desires to serve in Congress at some point..Lockheed Martin would like to play with you before you have a chance to vote to sell the F-35 to Taiwan. Winn glad to see Diageo is registered we will attempt to accommodate your request, the Committee drinks Crown Royal and Vodka. To former Rep. Dean Cobb, sorry you cannot be here, we are happy that you are the Chairman of the Travis County Grand Jury, but I bet the Hookers and Bookies are happier. Finally to Charlie Evans, please, please, please quit sending X-Out golf balls as your donation, it has gotten embarrassing. Hope everyone read this on their Blackberry.

Danny

Political People and Their Moves

Former Rep. Robert Puente is now the interim head of the San Antonio Water System. The president and CEO of SAWS, David Chardavoyne, resigned earlier in the day. A statement from the System's Board of Trustees said they were "acknowledging differences in management style and future direction."

Grant Harpold, a Houston lawyer and GOP precinct chair, says he'll run for the Texas Senate seat being vacated by Kyle Janek, R-Houston, early next month. He started with a swipe at the new business margins tax, and said his treasurer will be Harris County Attorney Michael Fleming. Janek hasn't officially resigned, but says he still plans to quit on June 2. No date's been set for the special election to replace him.

Greta Rymal is the new director of budget and fiscal policy at the state's Health and Human Services Commission. She was most recently the agency's federal liaison in Washington, D.C. Rymal replaces Ken Welch, who left to become CFO at the Teacher Retirement System.

Larry McKinney is leaving the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department after 25 years to run the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies at Texas A&M Corpus Christi. He was director of coastal fisheries and senior director of aquatic resources at TPW.

Move Ryan Weisman, a former House and Senate staffer who left (for a bit) for New Orleans, into Sen. Kevin Eltife's staff. He'll be a legislative aide specializing in natural resources.

Chesley "Ches" Blevins joins the Austin office of Jackson Walker, where he'll work on regulatory and legislative environmental issues for mining and energy clients.

Dr. Josie Williams, a Paris gastroenterologist, is the new president of the Texas Medical Association. And the new president-elect is Dr. William Fleming III, a Houston neurologist.

Fort Worth attorney Roland Johnson was elected president-elect of the State Bar of Texas. He'll be president in about 13 months.

Gov. Rick Perry reappointed Fort Worth district Judge Jean Boyd to the Texas Juvenile Probation Commission and named three new members to that panel: B.W. McClendon, pastor of St. James Missionary Baptist Church in Austin; Scott O'Grady of Dallas, a motivational speaker; and Robert Shults, a Houston attorney.

Evan Smith, editor of the state's biggest magazine, pulled TW editor Ross Ramsey into a podcast with TM political writer/editor Paul Burka to talk about the ongoing race for speaker and other political doings. Hear it here.

Quotes of the Week

Rep. Byron Cook, R-Corsicana, accused of carrying a non-working employee as a full-timer on his state office payroll: "If there's a target here, it's me because of the issues I've had with the leadership. This is generated by one source and one source only, and that has to have come in a whisper from the speaker's office. I have nothing to hide."

House Speaker Tom Craddick, in the same Austin American-Statesman story: "If some legislators are paying employees with taxpayer dollars who are performing little or no work, that is an egregious misuse of state money. It must be stopped immediately and with full restitution made."

The opening lines of a letter to U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colorado, from Eagle Pass Mayor Chad Foster and Brownsville Mayor Pat Ahumada, after Tancredo repeated his line about putting the border fence north of cities like Brownsville: "We have received your most recent tirade masquerading as a press release. While we understand that half-truths and deception are the minimum low standard of the Washington drive-by attack, we prefer straight talk."

Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston, quoted in The Dallas Morning News on abuse at state psychiatric hospitals: "You get what you pay for. When you financially dumb something down, you make services cheap, something's got to give. Unfortunately, it usually ends up being a mentally ill or disabled Texan."

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Texas Weekly: Volume 25, Issue 19, 12 May 2008. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2008 by Printing Production Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 302-5703 or email biz@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 288-6598.

Readers see stuff. They take pictures and send them. Us? We post.

If you go to that website, you get this message:

This is not an official campaign site as Senator Patrick has not declared he is running for Governor. He has not approved this site. This site has been put up by those of us who would like to encourage him to run for Texas Governor. He has been a true conservative voice of the people and is one who is not afraid to speak out, even against his own party. As he likes to say in speeches "It is time we find elected officials who care more about the next generation than the next election." If you would like to learn more about Senator Dan Patrick or ask him to run for Texas Governor, you can contact him by going to his campaign website here: DanPatrick.org John & Hope Hennessey

With Indiana and North Carolina out of the way, and Florida and Michigan still in political purgatory, the Democratic presidential candidates have nearly as many delegates at stake among the uncommitted superdelegates as in the remaining primariesThat's 223 superdelegates — including 10 in Texas — who haven't publicly agreed to support a particular candidate, and 274 delegates at stake in the remaining primaries in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota. Texas is just a small piece of that and most of the state's 35 superdelegates are committed. So far, they're split pretty evenly, with 13 pledged to Hillary Clinton 12 pledged to Barack Obama, and ten unpledged (including three who won't be selected until the state Democratic convention on the first weekend of June) [editor's note: this has been updated, on the chart below]. As you'd expect, the phones of the people in the undecided column are very busy this week. And then there's the matter of those three delegates-to-be-named: They'll be appointed by Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie and confirmed by the state party's governing committee. Here's the current list of where the state's superdelegates stand:

This week, pollsters dropped the equivalent of Fat Man and Little Boy on the blogosphere, which exploded accordingly. With their remaining energy, bloggers also were talking about money, the Presidential race and Mother's Day. And there's more.

* * * * *

Poll Position

Walker Report relays the official release by Rasmussen Reports about their poll showing Democrat Rick Noriega within four points of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. And here's the subsequent DailyKos poll with similar results.

"I think the poll is credible," says BurkaBlog. And Greg's Opinion is that the drop in Cornyn's numbers could be the result of John McCain being the presumptive GOP nominee. Greg also wonders if Cornyn will run some television during the summer.

"This is a PARTY ID poll and it's clear that whatever advantage the R's had in the past has evaporated under the heat of rank incompetence," says McBlogger. "The old wisdom of 50R/35D/15I would seem to me to not be operative any longer," says Off the Kuff. Analysis of cross-tabs by Kuff here. And musings by Dos-Centavos here.

Results show that Noriega has much more room to improve before the election than Cornyn does, according to Texas Blue. And Texas Observer Blog says the numbers could lead to better fundraising for Noriega.

The news sparks four posts by Burnt Orange Report: initial jubilee, a roundup of blog reactions, poll crosstabs and more jubilee after the release of the DailyKos poll.

Postcards from the Lege, the Austin American-Statesman's blog, talked to the relevant official campaign sources and also has a report on a fundraiser for Cornyn featuring Mitt Romney, wherein a Cornyn spokesman expresses befuddlement at the poll results. Eye on Williamson comments on said entry.

Chronic, the Austin Chronicle's blog, says it's admirable that the Democrats are even within "spitting distance" of the GOP.

* * * * *

Johnny Cash

Burka says the gas tax isn't a "tax" -- it's a "user fee." He also says that a recent op-ed by new transportation appointee Deirdre Delisi implies that she's against increasing said user fee. Meanwhile, Texas Parte Blog has the latest on legal battling by strip clubs against the so-called "pole tax."

Texas Politics says state comptroller Susan Combs estimates the state surplus to be $10.7 billion -- $4.3 billion less than the number given by House Speaker Tom Craddick. "Combs said the speaker's office 'mis-read' a revenue statement." Postcards describes the surplus as "a squishy number." And Texas Kaos takes Craddick to task for securing state health insurance for his grown daughter.

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott is planning a Fourth of July fundraiser for Virginia Attorney General Bob McDonnell, says Postcards.

* * * * *

It's a Bird, It's a Plane...

Now that superdelegate Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, is officially backing Hillary Clinton, the only uncommitted Texas superdelegate-congressman left is Rep. Nick Lampson, D-Stafford, points out Half-Empty (and here's our chart of the situation now). Texas Politics tries to figure out the status of all the Lone Star supers. And KVUE's Political Junkie takes the opportunity to post a picture of state party chair Boyd Richie doing the twist.

Burnt Orange has pictures of a voter registration drive in Austin by the Obama campaign. PoliTex, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's blog, says those kinds of things could be signs that Obama isn't prepared to cede Texas to McCain come November. And former Land Commissioner Gary Mauro says Clinton should keep fighting, in a podcast on Texas Politics.

Texas on the Potomac, the blog by the Houston Chronicle Washington Bureau, notes a sex-change operation resulting from the current tides in the Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, LULAC is suing the state Democratic party over delegates of the not-so-super variety, says Postcards. And Alan Keyes is still in the running for President, as the candidate of America's Independent Party of Texas, says Chronic.

* * * * *

Mother's Day

Grits for Breakfast wished a Happy Mother's Day to the moms from the Yearning For Zion ranch. (And Observer looks at the legal aspects of the ongoing child custody case.)

Muckraker rags on TxDOT for closing a section of Interstate 35 on a busy travel weekend, while Walker has photos of political persons who are also mothers. And Burnt Orange wonders why Rep. Mike McCaul, R-Austin, is opposed to mothers and women in general.

* * * * *

The Rest

Political Junkie spotted state Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock, on the road. WhosPlayin says independent Donald Tracey is no longer in the running for the Congressional District 26 seat. And Grits posts on innocence here, here, here, here and here.

Blue goes "On the Record" with John Cullar, County Chair for the McLennan County Democratic Party, and interviews state Democratic convention head Isabel Zermeño.

Gov. Rick Perry says, again, that he's going to run, again, in 2010, according to Texas Politics. Perry also took time to go watch the ponies in Kentucky, says the same blog.

And PoliSci@UST gets Headline of the Week award for a post about adult beverages, titled "The most important travel site. EVER."

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This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is spending the spring in the mid-Atlantic region. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

This starts with a chart shoved in our faces by an energetic and smart student at the University of Texas. The conversation in a political science class late last year turned to Williamson County, and the reelection chances of Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock.

Krusee won an unexpectedly close race in 2006. Democrats had him in their targets (he has since decided not to seek reelection) based on that 2006 race.

That's when the anonymous student (he didn't leave his name) pulled up a chart on his laptop computer, showing the difference between Republican and Democratic voting patterns in gubernatorial and presidential years. Everybody knows that more people vote in presidential years. This chart, however, showed that the presidential year balloon in that county was red. The difference on the Democratic side in 2004, a presidential year, and 2006, a gubernatorial election year, was about 15,000 votes. That many more Democrats voted in Williamson County in 2004 than in 2006. But the swing in the number of Republicans was significantly larger — about 26,000 votes. The student's theory was that a candidate like Krusee, who could survive the 2006 election, would probably be okay in a presidential year. More Republicans turning, more buffer for a downballot Republican candidate.

Some counties — Travis, next door to Williamson, is an example — have bigger Democratic margins in presidential years than in gubernatorial years. Some Democratic counties — Hidalgo is one — are more strongly Democratic in gubernatorial years; that is, Democrats beat Republicans, on average, by more votes in gubernatorial years there. And in some — Collin and Denton are in this rank — the presidential year Republican bloat exceeds 70 percent. The average statewide Republican margin of about 57,000 votes in Collin County turns into about 100,000 votes in a presidential year.

It's a look in the rear-view mirror and not a predictor of what's going to happen next. And if you look at county-by-county numbers, you'll find some landmarks. George W. Bush did extraordinarily well in that first presidential election, even in Democratic counties. So that skews the numbers. His home-state advantage in 2004 was smaller, but still apparent. Texas Democrats did much better in 2002, when they ran a strong statewide ticket, than in 2006, when they ran a serious race for governor and weak candidates for most other statewide contests. You can see it in the numbers: a million-vote average difference between statewide Republicans and Democrats in 2006, and half that in 2002.

And the state is becoming more competitive for the minority party — when Democrats field credible, well-financed candidates. That's why, for instance, the Republicans running for statewide judicial positions are nervous this year. Those elections have more to do with party identification than with anything else. Bush, who's still more popular in Texas than he is elsewhere, won't be on the ticket. Republicans are having a rough time nationally. And while the Republican turnout in the primaries grew dramatically this year, the GOP numbers were puny next to the growth in Democratic turnout.

One indication of change: Both sides consider Krusee's open seat in Williamson County a battleground race. It used to be solidly Republican.

By now, Texas businesses were supposed to have already filed returns and written checks for the newish business margins tax. They got a one-month reprieve from Comptroller Susan Combs, who decided the level of confusion was high enough to give everyone another month to calculate and pay up.

That probably delays some of the noise the new tax will generate, but not all of it.

The Texas branch of the National Federation of Independent Business is trying to build a business coalition to change the new tax. Their complaint is that the tax is too high, that it puts a hardship on companies with losses or tiny net incomes, that it's not offset by drops in property taxes, and that smaller businesses should get more of a break than they're getting.

To judge from comments from NFIB and from business people who spoke at a protest lunch on the day the tax was supposed to come due, lots of people weren't paying attention when lawmakers approved the tax two years ago.

They complained of being surprised by the tax. Some said their accountants are confused. Some said they thought their property tax relief was supposed to match their tax increase. And others said peculiarities of their operations make the new tax unfair.

Quick refresher (cribbed from our own archives of two years ago): The new tax kills the corporate franchise tax and replaces it with a levy on adjusted gross revenues of corporations and partnerships in the state. Businesses can choose what they deduct — either their cost of goods sold, or (most of) their employee compensation. Most would pay the state one percent of what's left after that calculation; retailers and wholesalers would pay 1/2 of one percent.

NFIB didn't lobby the tax when lawmakers passed it in special session two years ago; they say opposition among their members didn't reach the necessary 70 percent at the time, so they stayed out. Now that the members are seeing the tax bills (and NFIB sees the opportunity for a membership drive), the opposition is louder.

The group was joined by four lesser-know outfits (the Independent Electrical Contractors of Texas, the Air Conditioning Contractors of America Texas Chapter, the Associated Plumbing-Heating-Cooling Contractors of Texas, and the Texas Courier and Logistics Association) at an Austin lunch that drew about 150 people.

They'll push for several changes to the new tax, saying it shouldn't apply when companies are losing money or have only small profits; that the exemption for small businesses should be raised to $1 million in gross receipts from $300,000 now; that businesses with annual gross receipts under $20 million should pay only half the one percent tax rate; that all businesses should be allowed to include contract employees when adding up their deductions for payrolls; that the rate shouldn't be allowed to change unless the change gets approval from two-thirds of the House and of the Senate; and that businesses shouldn't have to pay more than twice what they paid under the old corporate franchise tax.

NFIB is trying to recruit other business groups and officials say they've got some prospects lined up. And members of the four groups that have joined in spoke at the lunch and, after it, with reporters.

"We've all made mistakes," said Gordon Stewart, an electrical contractor from Houston. "I have faith in our legislators... but I also believe they didn't know what they were getting into when they passed this."

He was the first of several speakers who said the tax was onerous. One electrical contractor said his taxes had risen to $50,000 from $3,900, but also said his company had $21 million in sales and $5 million in profits. An air conditioning contractor, Rebecca Maddux of Houston, said her business taxes quadrupled. She said later that it would have helped to know the rules last year, when she could have budgeted and planned for the tax (the comptroller didn't have final rules in place until early this year, and didn't have the form for filing the taxes completed until April 1). Maddux also said her business didn't get any property tax relief, since her father owns the land it's on and got that break.

Combs has started collecting the tax, but it's not due until June 15 and she has said it will be a couple of months — maybe August or September — before she's confident enough to say how much money the new levy has put in state accounts. House Speaker Tom Craddick recently said the state will have $15 billion more than it's currently spending when lawmakers write the next budget. Whether that's right or not, that number has found its way to voters. And Gov. Rick Perry is already talking about tax refunds if that number is correct, while others are saying the state should use any unfettered funds to improve or expand state services.

A lot will hinge on the two numbers coming within the next seven months from the comptroller: How much state revenue the new tax has produced, and how much money she expects the state to collect from other taxes over the next two years.

Those figures will frame the fight over tax cuts and revisions and on state spending in the 2009 legislative session.

One of the nation's biggest pro-choice organizations endorsed Barack Obama, but the Texas affiliate of NARAL isn't joining in.

NARAL Pro-Choice Texas issued a statement saying they won't endorse right now in the presidential race, but will "when a pro-choice nominee for president is named." They'll wait for the Democratic convention, in other words. How do they feel about Republican John McCain? They call him an "anti-choice candidate." He won't be getting the nod.

The Texas Supreme Court denied a plea from Rep. Nathan Macias' lawyers to replace the judge hearing his case. And the court recount of his election defeat in HD-73 is set for Monday, May 19.

Macias, a freshman Republican from Bulverde, lost the GOP primary to former New Braunfels Mayor Doug Miller. It was close, though, and Macias thinks alleged hanky-panky in Gillespie County's Box 5 — where the votes came in late, and for a time, Miller's sister-in-law mingled with the counters — might have cost him his reelection. His lawyers wanted the judge removed without stating a reason; the judge — upheld on appeal — said that works in regular cases, but not election contests. The difference between the winner and the loser: 17 votes. Trivia: Two years ago, Macias beat incumbent Rep. Carter Casteel, R-New Braunfels, by just 45 votes.

Texas Republicans have a door-knocking campaign going on this weekend, encouraging their grass-roots folks to get out and gather names of people who might vote with the GOP in November.

Their pitch to volunteers is that Democrats are jazzed up this year and the Republicans need to catch up. They've got various officials — U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams — promising to give $250 rewards to people who win drawings after turning in 60 new names.

• U.S. Sen. John Cornyn's campaign doesn't trust polls that show Democrat Rick Noriega only four points behind the incumbent. But they're using the scare to try to raise money. Their latest pitch: " The facts are clear, the extreme left is energized and unscrupulous, and our opponent is shamelessly aligned with them and will say and do anything it takes to gain much needed relevance and resources." Two separate polls had Noriega just behind Cornyn; and both, like others we've seen, had Cornyn holding less than 50 percent support.

• Midland Democrat Bill Dingus filed a friendly lawsuit against the Texas Democratic Party in an attempt to clear up his spot on the ballot. He was on the Midland City Council when he filed to run against House Speaker Tom Craddick. He's asking the state court to declare him an eligible candidate. No court date's been set.

• Texas Agriculture Commission Todd Staples is going to Cuba on a trade mission. He says he's the first statewide elected official from here to do that in 45 years. He'll take a couple of dozen people with him; they're trying to expand trade between Texas and the island.

• Pat Dixon, the state chairman of the Libertarian Party, is now an elected official after winning a spot on the Lago Vista City Council. He was on the council before, lost the seat in 2007 and will go back on.

• One of the best campaign finance websites — OpenSecrets.org — has been redesigned. It's faster, searches are better, and one of the truly great resources on the Internet is now even better. In about two seconds, we had our mitts on this: Texas ranks third among the states in total contributions to federal candidates in this election cycle, fourth in money given to Democrats, second in money given to Republicans, and first in soft-money contributions. Texans have contributed $90.6 million to federal candidates so far, with about three-fifths to Republicans and two-fifths to Democrats.

The national press might be anointing Barack Obama, but U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, watched the returns from North Carolina and Indiana and put his superdelegate support behind Hillary Clinton. In his announcement, he said the voters in his district favored Clinton, "and I will respect their decision." That leaves nine Texas superdelegate votes undecided — five of them under the direct or indirect influence of Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie. He's got a vote. Betty Richie, his wife and a Democratic National Committee member, has got a vote. And the rules say three delegates will be chosen at the state convention — appointed by the chairman and approved by a Party committee. Here's our chart, updated:

It appears that voters in Eustace have elected Mark Sanders to their city council.Sanders, a political consultant and former reporter who's worked in statewide campaigns for Republicans (like Kent Hance), Democrats (Tony Sanchez Jr.) and Independents (Carole Keeton Strayhorn), got 75 percent of the vote, which means he got 69 votes. He finished second in a field of six candidates, with the top three getting council seats. The top vote-getter pulled in 77 votes; number three got 64 votes. Eustace is in northeast Texas, near Athens.

Texas Democrats want the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals to look at a Midland candidate's eligibility.Midland City Councilman Bill Dingus filed to run against House Speaker Tom Craddick, R-Midland. After some Republican rumblings about his eligibility, the Texas Democratic Party asked a federal judge whether Dingus is eligible, as a city council member, to also run for state rep. The court didn't rule on that question, instead kicking the case to state courts. But U.S. District Judge Walter Smith wrote that Dingus isn't eligible to run. Dingus responded to that by resigning from the City Council. And now the TDP is going to the New Orleans-based federal appeals court for another crack at the question.

Put R. Ted Cruz on your list of potential candidates for attorney general, should an opening occur in that office in the next couple of years.Cruz was until recently the state's solicitor general, working for Attorney General Greg Abbott. He left for private practice a few weeks ago (joining the Morgan Lewis law firm as a partner this week), became a father, and somehow got other Republicans talking about his political future. Abbott hasn't said he's going anywhere, but even the squirrels on the Capitol grounds have heard the rumors that he'd like to run for lieutenant governor or even governor in 2010.

Roland Gutierrez, a former San Antonio city councilman, is the newest member of the Texas House after a swearing-in this week.

He was unopposed in the contest to finish the term of Rep. Robert Puente, a Democrat who resigned earlier this year (and who was named interim CEO of the San Antonio Water System a week ago). Gutierrez is also the only candidate on the ballot in November.

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia will speak at the Texas GOP convention in Houston next month.

So will Mitt Romney, the former presidential candidate and Governor of Massachusetts. The Republican Party of Texas made Gingrich part of the afternoon lineup on Friday, June 13; Romney will speak at the dinner that night.

Carl Richie Jr. is closing his solo lobby shop to become vice president for government affairs at TXU Energy (the retail company borne of last year's TXU buyout). He'll start the new gig June 2.

Mindy Carr is joining another TXU spinoff. She'll join Oncor, the distribution company, as government affairs director. Carr was most recently at the Texas Land Title Association.

Paige Cooper is leaving her lobby biz for a spot in the intergovernmental affairs section at the Attorney General's office. She worked in the House for ten years before she started lobbying four years ago.

Dr. Jose Gonzalez is the new medical director for Medicaid and CHIP at the Health and Human Services Commission. He's a pediatric endocrinologist and professor at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston. He'll start next month.

Dr. Hilton Israelson, a Dallas periodontist, is the new president of the Texas Dental Association; the new president-elect is Dr. Matt Roberts, from Crockett.

Gov. Rick Perry made some appointments:

• Jerry Lowry of New Caney and Larry May of Sweetwater to the Texas Commission on Jail Standards. Lowry is an exec with the Greenspoint District (a real estate development), and May is a CPA.

• Nine people to the Judicial Compensation Commission, which sets judge's salaries and, by extension, the retirement benefits of legislators and other state officeholders. The new commissioners are Betsy Whitaker, a Dallas lawyer who'll chair the panel; Ramiro Galindo, chairman of the Galindo Group in Bryan; Tom Harwell of El Paso, an exec with medical device manufacturer Ethicon Endo-Surgery; Harold Jenkins, president of CTJ Maintenance in Irving; Pat Mizell, a Houston attorney with Vinson & Elkins; Wanda Rohm, president of Presto Printing in San Antonio; Linda Russell of Kemah, CEO of the Woman's Hospital of Texas; Austin attorney Mike Slack; and Bill Strawn, also of Austin, founder of an executive search firm called Strawn Arnold Ashpitz Groover.

• Darrel Brownlow, a Floresville exec with Cemex USA, to the Evergreen Underground Water Conservation District Board. That's a reappointment.

Deaths: Alice Finley, the House's Journal Clerk when she retired in 1995. She was 70. And one of her contemporaries, Cynthia Gerhardt, a longtime Capitol staffer whose last job before retirement was chief clerk of the Texas House, after a ten-year fight with cancer. She was also 70.

On the eve of a court fight, Rep. Nathan Macias has decided to concede to Doug Miller, who beat him by 17 votes in the Republican primary.Macias sued for a recount after the Republican Party of Texas and the Secretary of State signed off on the votes, and was supposed to go to trial for an election contest on Monday. But on Friday afternoon, he issued this statement saying he's giving up, and taking some last swipes on the way out.

Today, I have decided to discontinue the Election Contest. It's unfortunate, but the reality is that in any civil litigation, resources are always a major factor. Therefore, I have determined that my remaining resources would be best used toward achieving these specific goals - election system reform, and my future service to you as an elected public servant. Using all the information we have discovered, I will submit a detailed summary and plan to the appropriate committees in the House and Senate as well as the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, the Republican Party of TX and County officials. As you can imagine, to try any case in the court system is not only a matter of the facts or truth, but also includes matters of judgment, matters of procedure and quite frankly resources. So my family and I have determined it best for all parties involved to no longer pursue this election in the courts. With the Supreme Court denying our request for a new judge and understanding the potential for this litigation to cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, only to have a judge rule against the facts, is not my idea of a good investment. In addition to the other reasons for my decision, I have just learned of some recent disturbing interaction between our opposing counsel and the court, which only reinforces my decision to allow other avenues to resolve the issues in this election. We did indeed find double voters, we did indeed find felons who voted, there are indeed certain types of unsigned ballots - all clear violations of the law, and we even found a Democratic ballot in a Republican box in one county. We discovered out of district voters, alphabetically listed sign in sheets without signatures, and instances of more ballots than voters in certain precincts. Let's not forget the extremely suspicious irregularities that occurred with Doug Miller's sister-in-law counting the ballot box that came in three hours and forty-five minutes after the polls closed and well after significant election results had been publicly released. Even with all that, we have decided to let the Attorney General and the Legislature deliver any criminal or civil remedies necessary to guard the trust of the citizens. I want to ensure everyone that the Texas Attorney General is conducting an ongoing criminal investigation into the events that occurred on March 4th. I trust, if there was any criminal activity that occurred that evening, our able Attorney General will find it. My office will fully cooperate with the AG's office. Let me say, I have always and will always be proud and honored to serve the great citizens of Bandera, Comal, Gillespie and Kendall counties. I will continue to serve faithfully and with integrity through the remainder of my term. Those who know me well and best know that this has never been about me or a right to power, but has always been about you, the citizens that love our Hill Country and Texas so very deeply. In fact, during the campaign it was repeatedly claimed by my opponent that, "you might wonder if Macias cares more about illegal immigrants than Texans." Ladies and gentlemen, that sickens me to the core of my being, and I'm sorry for those who were swayed by that bald-faced lie. I love our great nation and our state and will defend it against all enemies foreign and domestic until the day I die. I want to comment on the casino gambling PAC, A.K.A. Texans for Economic Development who ran an estimated $180,000 coordinated negative campaign along side Miller. Let me only state that their campaign material/whisper campaign, painting me as anti-agriculture and for higher taxes, was completely false and they know it. Also, it is a shame that most, not all, of the local/regional media appear incapable of reporting the news in an unbiased manner to allow the voters to decide an election. They are accountable, not to me, but to you, the citizens who trust them to give the entire unbiased story. They don't have to agree with me, but I trust that some day soon the citizenry will call them to account. In any given campaign cycle, there are conditions that affect down ballot races, and this Presidential election year was no exception. For all the conservatives who crossed over and voted in the Democratic primary, the reality is that it had a profound impact on our State Representative race. I know this because many of you have personally contacted me with regrets for having crossed over. For the sake of my fellow citizens, I wish Mr. Miller future success and respectfully ask him to always remember his promise to the citizens of the 73rd District…Conservative Representation. Unlike your previous State Rep, I will contact Mr. Miller and make myself available to him. To the 14,667 individuals that voted for me, and the thousands of my close supporters and contributors, I say thank you from the bottom of my heart. Thank you for the hundreds of cards, letters and email encouraging me in our battle for truth. Your determination and loyalty were simply incredible. I am most encouraged by the young men and women who sacrificed their time for our campaign. Despite the results, I encourage them to stay the course and continue to engage the issues for the cause of faith, family and freedom. I also encourage all of you to demand conservative Republican representation from your next State Representative. To all the voters who legally participated in this election I want to thank you for taking seriously your right to vote and I honor the outcome of this election. I will do all I can to bring about the necessary changes in election law that will further your trust in our sacred right to vote. I want to thank my campaign and legislative staffs and legal team for all their hard work, loyalty and uncompromising commitment to doing what's right. You all are second to none. To my dearest wife and children, Thank you and God Bless You for all you have done, and the sacrifices you have made for our communities and our State. You are simply amazing and I'm proud to be known as your husband and your dad. I gave the Lord the glory for our victory of 2006 and I give Him the glory for the results in 2008. There are many great tragedies occurring across our nation and around the world even today, so let's keep this in perspective. I will be fine. I have a gracious Heavenly Father, a wonderful life and loving family and friends. Let me leave you with an analogy in case some believe that my public service life is over. The great turn of the century pastor Dwight L. Moody, when nearing the end of his life on earth, said these words to his congregation. "Many of you will soon be reading in the obituaries 'Dwight L. Moody is dead.' Don't you believe it for one minute; I will have never been more alive." So it is with me. I'm truly grateful for the abundant life I live now and in the future. May God richly bless you and may He continue to bless the Great State of Texas! Remaining at Your Service, Nathan