U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison told her colleagues in the Senate that she won't be seeking reelection to her Senate leadership job, and on a little (but not much) more private level, she's telling colleagues she'll soon form an "exploratory" committee to start raising money and gathering intelligence in anticipation of a 2010 run for governor.

Hutchison, who strongly considered running for the top state job in 2002 and again in 2006, has been telling potential supporters and campaign finance people that she'll run in 2010. But giving up power in Washington, D.C., is further than she's gone before. You know the difference between being involved and being committed? When you have bacon and eggs for breakfast, the chicken is involved. The pig is committed. Hutchison isn't all in yet, but she's going that way.

She's the policy chair of the Senate Republican Conference. Asked about what she said to the Republicans, her office issued a statement. "In order to explore new opportunities that many Texans have asked me to consider, I informed my colleagues in the Senate today that I would not seek re-election as Chair of the Republican Policy Committee. I have been honored to serve in the leadership for eight years, and have especially enjoyed shaping our policy positions in my current role; however, it is in the best interests of the conference to elect a new policy committee chairman who can commit full attention throughout the next Congress to Policy Committee responsibilities."

Gov. Rick Perry has said he'll run for reelection to a third term. There's no reason not to believe that, but Perry's also got to preserve his power going into the 2009 legislative session; being a lame duck wouldn't help with the Legislature in town.

We're told that state Sen. Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, is close to the $300,000 mark with her federal fund-raising for a potential U.S. Senate race. She's in "exploratory" mode right now, saying she's interested in running if Kay Bailey Hutchison's seat becomes available. Hutchison hasn't announced, but didn't get out a can of RAID when Shapiro got in, and they have at least one major consultant in common.

All in One Stable

A new group formed to push the Legislature to allow more gambling opportunities at Texas racetracks puts all the ponies in one corral.

Texas HORSE — which stands Horse Organizations for Racing, Showing and Event — consolidates the American Quarter Horse Association, American Paint Horse Association, National Cutting Horse Association, Texas Arabian Breeders Association, Texas Quarter Horse Association and Texas Thoroughbred Association. They say they want to present "a unified front" next year in yet another effort to legalize casino-style games at the state's 13 licensed tracks.

The racing industry, with the sometimes on-and-off support of such state leaders as Gov. Rick Perry, then Agriculture Commissioner and now Comptroller Susan Combs, and former Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, has been trying to convince lawmakers since 2003 to open up the state to the kind of gambling that's long been legal in all the U.S. states that border Texas.

But each session, the effort sputters. And it doesn't seem to matter whether the state's facing a daunting budget crisis, like the near-$10 billion hole in '03, or the coffers are overflowing, as Combs is projecting, informally, for 2009.

"It is time to put Texas horses and Texas horsemen out in front of this legislative effort," said Jim Helzer, an Arlington quarterhorseman who was elected president of the new group at its organizational meeting in July. "Passage of (new gambling legislation) will have a tremendous positive impact on the agricultural economy and on rural development in Texas."

Under the proposal being backed by HORSE, the money generated from additional gambling would be pumped into a Performance Horse Development Fund, which would be used to promote such non-racing equine activities as cutting, reining, barrel racing, team roping, Western pleasure, rodeo and trail rides.

There would also be money for the racehorses and for such initiatives as health care for low-income Texans and for better roads and highways, they say.

State Rep. Sid Miller, the Stephenville Republican who chairs the House Agriculture and Livestock Committee, said he expects to hear pitches from HORSE and some of the other pro-gambling organizations when his panel meets next week (October 1) at Tarleton State University to discuss ways to bump up purses for a variety of horse events.

But Miller remains skeptical that the 81st Legislature will have any greater appetite for gambling that the ones that came before.

"I expect we'll hear all sorts of proposals for VLTs (video lottery terminals) and everything else, but I'm just not convinced they can pass," Miller said. "I agree we need to do something for the horsemen, but I think we need to be looking at other alternatives."

One option, he said, would be to follow Kentucky's lead and levy a sales tax on horse-breeding fees. And even as HORSE and other groups continue to explore ways to make gambling more appealing to lawmakers, forces on the other side are gearing up to go toe-to-toe with them.

Weston Ware, who over the past two decades-plus has waged battles against pari-mutuel betting, the lottery, and casinos, has reactivated his group Texans Against Gambling with online petitions and money-solicitations of $10 to $100 to counter the much better-financed pro-gambling organizations. He said 250 online signatures were gathered within the first week of his plea.

"We put lawmakers on notice that voters across the state will oppose any action that might lead to expanded gambling in Texas," Ware said.

—by John Moritz

Seeing Red, Feeling Blue

Democrats in HD-52 say Williamson County is headed in their direction. They've got quite a rally going around their candidate, Diana Maldonado. But Republican candidate Bryan Daniel says he doesn't think the district is going blue, and other Republicans say the Democrats are misreading the results of the 2006 elections.

Democrats need to win five seats to take over the House, and this is one of several they're counting on. Republican incumbent Mike Krusee has held the seat since 1993. In 2006, he defeated Democrat Karen Felthauser by only 2,333 votes (50.4 percent to her 44.2 percent — Libertarian Lillian Simmons got 5.3 percent and she's going for it again this year), and Felthauser did it without much money and with no significant outside help. It looked to some like Democrats were rising in the district. Others thought the result had more to do with dissatisfaction over the incumbent than in any change in the electorate. About the same number of Democrats turned out for this year's primary (16,870) as for the 2006 general election.

"Since the primary, the energy is really picking up," says Maldonado, a former Round Rock School Board Trustee. "We have so many groups coming out to block walk — high school seniors, the UT Democrats and even a group from San Angelo came out."

She says some of her Democratic friends have had to "go Republican" in the past to maintain their businesses or form associations, but "with a good slate of Democratic candidates, they are able to come out and be themselves." Maldonado also says growth and changing demographics in Williamson County mean a shift to the left.

Daniel isn't buying it.

"I haven't seen evidence of a huge shift in conservative versus liberal," he says. "People are going around saying District 52 is becoming more liberal, but I'm certainly not seeing that in the issues with my voters. I think they're the same as they've been in the last eight to ten years."

Daniel, an agricultural insurance exec, says growth has certainly brought new voters and with that, an atmosphere that invites political discussion, but overall, he believes Williamson County has retained conservative values.

Mid-year reports with the Texas Ethics Commission shows Maldonado is way ahead financially with almost $139,000 in contributions and just over $129,000 left over in cash. She's been campaigning since July 2007. Bryan had raised about $60,000 since the primary and held on to half of it, but he didn't start raising money until January. New reports are due soon — 30 days before the November 4 election.

The candidates aren't getting after each other too much — both say in their own words that they're focusing on the issues, from toll roads to the margins tax. (You can catch videos of their recent debate in Hutto here.)

But, Maldonado has criticized Daniel for taking contributions from Bob Perry of Perry Homes in Houston — in light of the Sunset Advisory Commission's recommendation to abolish the Texas Residential Construction Commission. "It's a problem if we want change," she says. "We have to be committed to make sure we don't have anymore cronyism, scare tactics and back room deals that the current leadership has put us in."

Daniel says that Maldonado takes donations from trial lawyers and has no room to talk. Maldonado says trial lawyers are playing because there's a speaker's race underway and she's a vote against the incumbent, Tom Craddick of Midland. Daniel hasn't specified whether he'll support Craddick if elected.

"He's proven to be very conservative," she says. "It's the same tired politics, he's pretty much going down that path."

The only thing these candidates really agree on is their parties' respective presidential tickets — both are sure the top of the ticket is going to bring big crowds to their downballot race.

—by Karie Meltzer

Storm Damage

Hurricane Ike threw a campaign curveball at the candidates in CD-22. U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, D-Stafford, who's also busy with congressional work on the Wall Street bailout, is taking a complete break from campaigning. His opponent, Pete Olson, is trying to balance campaigning and recovery efforts.

The district covers four counties — Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston and Harris. Damage and power outages were pretty widespread, and there are still hundreds of thousands of homes and offices without power. With so many displaced voters, the candidates have lost ad space all around. But that's not a total loss, politically — they gained face time with voters.

"He was all over the district," says Lampson spokesman Trevor Kincaid, "talking to people on the ground and calling mayors to make sure the federal and state governments were responding to their needs."

Lampson also helped get a mobile FEMA unit set up in Galveston.

"He hasn't been able to be here constantly," says Sue Funkhouser, chair of the Brazoria County Democrats, "but he's made his presence known. I don't know that he's been necessarily hurt by this."

Power outages forced the Olson campaign to shut down for a while, but they're getting back into the game. "We spent that time volunteering in the district and we're slowly beginning to campaign in the district where it's appropriate," Olson says. "There are certainly some areas that have a long way to go."

Both campaigns say their main focus is getting the district back to some state of normalcy, so there's no clear vision of how the next few weeks will play out.

Even debates are shaky. Olson wanted four, but Lampson just agreed to one. Then he cancelled one scheduled for October 20 at the Rosenberg-Richmond Chamber of Commerce. That didn't make the chamber's CEO Gail Parker too happy. They had another debate scheduled for October 1 at the Hilton Houston NASA Clear Lake (say that five times fast), but the hotel suffered major damage. It's safe to say next week's debate might not happen, even though the campaigns are looking for a new location.

"The campaign is on the back burner," says Kincaid, "but we're looking forward to a debate. It's just a question of where and when."

At mid-year, Lampson was ahead in the money game with about $1,600,000 in donations. He'd spent just over $600 thousand. Olson had raised about $1,300,000 — but his spending (lots on consultants) left him with just over $200,000 in cash. He says the funding situation is what led him to launch a new campaign Web site about Lampson's record.

"We're acting like we're behind," says Olson, "When people say this is a Republican district and stronghold and we should win comfortably, I don't believe it. We're not acting that way."

—by Karie Meltzer

Nope

The Texas Supreme Court, without comment, left the Democratic and Republican presidential tickets on the Texas ballot, denying a Libertarian claim that the two parties missed a state deadline.

Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr sued the state, saying the major party conventions nominated their candidates after the state's statutory deadline had passed. Barr contended he was the only candidate with the legal right to appear on the Texas ballot.

The Supremes disagreed, without offering any written opinion or explanation. Your ballot will have Barr, John McCain and Barack Obama on it.

The big parties lauded the decision, but the chairman of the Texas Libertarian Party said it left questions unanswered: "We are naturally disappointed that the Supreme Court has refused to enforce the law against Republicans and Democrats in this case, when courts have repeatedly enforced the law against Libertarians, other minor parties, and independents in past cases," said Pat Dixon. He complained that the lack of a written opinion leaves unclear whether and when the deadlines are meant to be enforced.

Russell Verney, a spokesman for the Barr campaign, had a similar reaction. "The Court’s one-sentence denial deprived us, and the voters of Texas, of any explanation of the Court's reasons for arbitrarily exempting the Republicans and the Democrats from the clear deadline set forth in the law," he said. "Third parties and Independent candidates are consistently told that deadlines are deadlines. Texas has somehow determined that deadlines are just suggestions but we are left without the guidance of the Court’s reasons."

Political Notes

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn hit the airwaves (after a hurricane delay) with an ad calling for change in Washington, D.C., and another calling for help for Texans set back and displaced by storms. Both Cornyn ads — like the Republican incumbent's new website — are in black and white. The first, called "Palo Duro," will air in 16 Texas TV markets and also in online ads on more than a dozen Texas newspaper websites. And they're holding off in Houston and Beaumont, where people are dealing with aftereffects of Hurricane Ike, for at least a week. The second ad, called "Help," is airing in 18 TV markets, including Houston and Beaumont. Democrat Rick Noriega hasn't yet announced an ad campaign for the last weeks of the election season, but he does have a response ad — called "All by Himself — on the Internet.

• Two of Corpus Christi's TV stations refused ads from the Nueces County GOP, saying the commercials tying an indicted lawyer to Democratic officeholders didn't pass their fact checks. The party revised the ad to keep it on a third station. It tries to link money donated by Mauricio Celis to Reps. Juan Garcia of Corpus and Abel Herrero of Robstown. The ads say Celis gave to a PAC that in turn gave to the two candidates and says their elections were tainted as a result. Herrero has said he took the contributions in good faith and did nothing improper. Garcia's campaign has documented the PAC's spending to show that it had used all of Celis' money and replenished its balance with other contributions before giving to Garcia. After Celis' indictment, both candidates made charitable contributions with the money he'd donated this cycle.

• The Texas Farm Bureau's AGFUND — that's their political action committee — endorsed U.S. Sen. John Cornyn for reelection over Democrat Rick Noriega. The PAC affiliate of the Texas Association of Realtors endorsed Bryan Daniel over Diana Maldonado in HD-52. Rep. Donna Howard, D-Austin, picked up the Texas Parent PAC's endorsement; she's running against Republican Pamela Waggoner. Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi, got an endorsement from CLEAT (the Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas) in his race against former Rep. Todd Hunter.

• House Speaker Tom Craddick is hosting a funder for Rep. Bill Zedler, R-Arlington, in Austin early next month — no surprise there. But the special guest is interesting: Karen Hughes, former top aide to President George W. Bush.

• Nine Republican House candidates — only two of them current incumbents — made the list of people who'll benefit from a "Red River Rivalry Fundraiser" in Dallas on the Friday before the UT-OU football game. The roster: Rep. Tony Goolsby and former Rep. Bill Keffer of Dallas, Rep. Bill Zedler and Mark Shelton of Fort Worth, Ralph Sheffield of Temple, Tim Kleinschmidt of Lexington, Mike Anderson of Mesquite, Ken Legler of Pasadena, and Bryan Daniel of Georgetown. All but one of those is considered a real race: Sheffield is running against Democrat Sam Murphey in a solidly Republican district, but some political types on both sides have that contest on their "sleeper" lists.

• They delayed elections in Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina and even after Gustav. Now a group of Texans is asking for a delay not in the election date but in the deadline for voter registration. The law gives Texans about a week — until October 6 — to sign up. These folks are asking Gov. Rick Perry to extend the deadline because of Ike: League of Women Voters of Texas, Houston Votes, Coalition of Texans with Disabilities, Common Cause, and the People for the American Way Foundation.

• That Houston conference on transportation we told you about last week? Moved to December 3, courtesy of Ike. You can get details from the Texas Lyceum, which is hosting.

• The next turn of the screw in the Brimer-Davis eligibility fight is set for Thursday, October 2, when the two sides argue before the 5th Court of Appeals in Dallas. Sen. Kim Brimer, R-Fort Worth, sued to knock Democrat Wendy Davis out of contention, saying she wasn't off the Fort Worth city council soon enough to qualify for the Senate race. The courts might not be able to take her off the ballot this late, if they think that's the thing to do, but they could tell election officials not to count the votes of an illegal candidate.

• The Speaker's Golf Tournament raised $590,000 for childhood immunizations according to Speaker Tom Craddick's office. That money goes to the Caring for Children Foundation.

• Joan Huffman, one of six candidates running for Sen. Kyle Janek's open SD-17 seat, signed the Grover Norquist tax pledge, saying she will "oppose and vote against any and all efforts to increase taxes." That's sponsored by Americans for Tax Reform — Norquist's group. Huffman joins 15 challengers in Texas and 38 state legislators (including Janek) who've taken the pledge.

• Michael Skelly is touting, in his plea for funds, a new poll showing him seven percentage points behind U.S. Rep. John Culberson, R-Houston, and saying he started 20 points back.

Political People and Their Moves

The new deputy executive director at the Teacher Retirement System is Brian Guthrie, until recently the number two guy in Gov. Rick Perry's office of budget, planning and policy. That came on a 5-4 vote, with some teacher groups nervous about the Guv's influence at TRS.

The Texas Observer has a new editor: Bob Moser, a writer and editor for The Nation and former editor of the Independent Weekly, will take over next month. He's the replacement for Jake Bernstein, who left for a reporting job with New York-based Pro Publica.

Bob Strauser is retiring from Baker Botts, but not from lobbying. He's opening a legislative consulting shop of his own. Strauser says he'll share offices with former Sen. Buster Brown starting next month.

The latest escapee from the Pink Building is Royce Poinsett, general counsel to House Speaker Tom Craddick. He's joining the lobby team at the McGinnis Lochridge & Kilgore law firm.

David Dunn is the founding executive director of the Texas Charter School Association. He's got a lot of history in Texas, but was most recently chief of staff to U.S. Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings.

Anne Dunkelberg of the Center for Public Policy Priorities won the distinguished public service award from the alumni association at UT's LBJ School of Public Affairs. She's a 1988 grad.

Sen. Jane Nelson, R-Lewisville, is getting this year's National Distinguished Advocacy Award from the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network. That national group picks one state lawmaker for the award every year.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed former Houston Oiler Matthew Cody Carlson of Austin to the Governor’s Advisory Council on Physical Fitness. Carlson is now a private investor.

Perry named Bob Barnes of Granbury (formerly of Odessa, where he ran for state office) to the board of the Texas Mutual Insurance Co. Barnes has a real estate and management company and is a former CEO of Schlotzsky's Ltd.

He named three to the State Board of Podiatric Medical Examiners: Dr. James Michael Lunsford of Katy; Dr. Joe Martin Jr., a podiatrist with the Scott and White Clinic of College Station; and James Michael Miller of Aledo, a retired Fort Worth police supervisor.

Speaker Craddick reappointed Kathleen Hartnett White to the Texas Emissions Reduction Plan Advisory Board. She's a former Texas Commissioner on Environmental Quality who now works at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, an Austin-based think tank.

Deaths: U.S. District Judge Barefoot Sanders of Dallas, a one-time U.S. Senate candidate and three-term Texas state representative who presided over long and contentious lawsuits desegregating the Dallas public schools and overhauling state schools for mentally disabled Texans. He was 83.

Quotes of the Week

Houston Mayor Bill White, angry about a line of supplies that wasn't getting to the line of people who needed them, quoted in the Houston Chronicle: "You need to be getting these (bleeping) trucks out of here."

Former Public Utility Commissioner Julie Parsley, quoted in a Houston Chronicle story about whether the state's utilities should upgrade to more hurricane-resistant infrastructure: "If you've got a lawn chair that's flying through the air at 100 miles an hour, it's going to take out a line."

Texas Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, quoted by the Associated Press on whether to build along the beaches on the Texas coast: "You want to have at least a complete all four seasons and find out what Mother Nature is actually going to do until she finishes what she's going to do."

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, quoted by The New York Times from an address in England: "At this point I should note that for the first time, both the United States secretary of state and secretary of defense have doctorates in Russian studies. A fat lot of good that's done us."

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Texas Weekly: Volume 25, Issue 37, 29 September 2008. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2008 by Printing Production Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 302-5703 or email biz@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 288-6598.

Bloggers are buzzing about the plan to bail out the nation's clay-footed financial giants. They're also recovering from Hurricane Ike, talking about politicians' disappearing acts and throwing a few bones to folks who are neither Republicans nor Democrats. And there's more, including an award for Headline of the Week!

* * * * *

Sending Out an S.O.S.

"This bill is also a reminder of many other bills that were urged to pass quickly for the good of the country... I'M TIRED OF THIS!!!" writes Congressional District 31 Democrat Brian Ruiz. "At What Point Do We Resort To Tax Evasion?" sighs a frustrated Kevin Tracy. And "Am I in the right universe?" asks Redneck Mother, dazed by the White House's buyout plan, her sons' obedience and seeing county jail inmates brandishing weed eaters. ("You know who I think would look awesome clearing brush from flood-control ditches in orange and white stripes? The investment-sector jokers who want a great big financial cookie from me and my kids — and you and your kids — for their misbehavior," she adds.)

The University of Texas LBJ School blog rounds up articles on the financial crisis written by or starring in-house economist James K. Galbraith. Speaking of, UrbanGrounds attended a debate between Galbraith and conservative philosopher Daniel Bonevac. (Unsurprisingly, the conservative blogger ruled that his fellow right-winger won.) Here's a take on the same forum from Quid Nimis. And here's where you can find video of the event.

Texas Kaos likens the Treasury Department's plan to Nigerian e-phishing scams and makes note of a GOP platform plank: "We do not support government bailouts of private institutions."

No sir, I don't like it, says U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, basically. U.S. Rep. Jeb Hensarling's alternative proposals have garnered the admiration of a right-wing columnist, according to Tex Parte Blog. And "aides to [U.S. Sen. John] Cornyn have privately said he has misgivings about the bailout plan... " whispers Postcards from the Lege, the Austin American-Statesman's blog.

Postcards reports on a hard line of questioning to Fed Chair Ben Bernanke from U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin, that had U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Lake Jackson, confused as to "who the conservatives are and who the liberals are." Meanwhile, PoliTex quibbles with U.S. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Ennis, over how many days God took to create the world. (We say the 24 hours of R&R should count.)

Tarrant County U.S. Reps have received thousands of phone calls and e-mails opposing the bailout, says the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's PoliTex, while The Jackalope's Voice uses the verb form of the word "demagogue" to describe verbal actions taken by U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco.

Yeah, right, whatever has a bunch of links to stories about the crisis. EconLog has a list of economists against the proposed bailout. Letters from Texas writes an epistle to President George W. Bush from the American people (or some of them, at least). And Texas on the Potomac, the Houston Chronicle's blog, analyzes Bush's reaction and has the full text of his speech on the crisis.

* * * * *

Picking Up

A couple of highlights from Tex Parte: Lawyer has extra space to share with other attorneys, temporarily. And the Galveston Justice Center is slated to open to the public on Oct. 13.

Former Congressional District 22 GOP hopeful Alan Steinberg, now a University of Houston poli-sci student, talks about hurricane relief duty with the Texas State Guard. Meanwhile, a pair of Texas Kaos bloggers share their respective Ike-related meltdowns, here and here.

ABC13's Political Blog followed the mayors of Galveston and Houston to Washington, D.C., as they requested billions of dollars in federal aid money. The posts are here, here and here. And here's a pic from Lone Star Times.

After roughing it for a dozen days, Texas Rainmaker broke down and purchased a generator. Old Soldier regained power after 11 days with no electricity. He posted some photos of Ike damage and finally got his Internet back at home after having to blog from work for a couple of weeks.

In the "don't try this at home" category, Plowing, Sowing, and an Occasional Harvest took a picture of the rising sun while driving. And Texas Observer Blog has a post titled "Apres Moi, Le Deluge" — which is French for "I told you so."

* * * * *

Aping Palin

Where in the world is Sen. Kim Brimer, R-Fort Worth?asks KVUE's Political Junkie. He was skipping out on most of a Sunset Advisory Commission meeting concerning the Texas Residential Construction Commission, says Capitol Annex. A commenter replies that Brimer left early, not to avoid cameras, but to emcee a dinner for Tarrant County senior citizens.

Incumbent McCaul is turning down requests by the Statesman to participate in a debate pitting him against challengers Larry Joe Doherty (a Democrat) and Libertarian Matt Finkel (no relation to Ray Finkle, fictional or real). Out in El Paso, Republican Dee Margo won't participate in a debate with Democrat Joe Moody. Margo says he'd rather be block walking, and he'll be in plenty forums enough between now and November, according to the El Paso Times's blog Vaqueros & Wonkeros.

Meanwhile, Big White Hat hasn't blogged lately because he hasn't had much to say, he says.

* * * * *

Third Wheels

Libertarian nominee Bob Barr and independent Ralph Nader both want in on presidential debates, says PoliTex. Meanwhile, Chronic, the Austin Chronicle's blog, publishes statements from Texas Libertarian Party chair Pat Dixon and Texas Democratic Party chair Boyd Richie on the Texas Supreme Court's rejection of Barr's bid to remove John McCain and Barack Obama from the state's ballot.

And 1988 Libertarian presidential candidate Ron Paul punks Barr in favor of Constitutionalist Party nominee Chuck Baldwin, says PoliTex. Blogger Libertarian Republican, a former Paul staffer, says Paul's decision could be a signal that he's ready to retire from Congress, or an impetus for GOPers to knock him out of the 2010 primary or even replace him as their nominee on the November ballot. (Paul defeated Chris Peden this spring 70 to 30.)

* * * * *

Potpourri

Greg's Opinion posts two campaign videos by Democrat Bill Dingus, who's challenging House Speaker Tom Craddick. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee says it's "essential" that state House candidates Diana Maldonado and Chris Turner win their respective races, says Eye on Williamson.

TexBlog PAC, a group of liberal bloggers, is endorsing House District 101 Democrat Robert Miklos , reports Off the Kuff, who interviews Rep. Martha Cohen, D-Houston.

Kuff has the best blog in Houston , according to the Houston Press. The Teacher Retirement System of Texas might pay attorneys up to $750 per hour for their services, says Tex Parte. ("Bet the teachers wish they made that much money.") Meanwhile, Brains and Eggs gives detailed details about the Harris County ballot he learned from the county clerk.

And TFN Insider wins Headline of the Week Award for a post on Don McLeroy titled, "SBOE Chairman: Dentist, Science Guy."

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This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is semi-settled in Austin. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

The two national governors' associations — one for the Democrats and one for the Republicans — hold hands and tell Congress to vote out a plan.Govs. Rick Perry of Texas and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the heads of the Republican and Democratic governor's associations, fired off a letter to the House and Senate majority leaders telling them to put their party hats away and work out an economic fix. The letters are identical -- here's one that went to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid:

Texans in the U.S. House voted strongly against the bailout in the first round, and all four members who face serious challenges voted against it, including Democrats Nick Lampson of Stafford and Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio and Republicans John Culberson of Houston and Michael McCaul of Austin.

The Ayes of Texas in that round were Republicans Kevin Brady of The Woodlands, Kay Granger of Fort Worth, Pete Sessions of Dallas, and Lamar Smith of San Antonio, and Democrats Chet Edwards of Waco, Charlie Gonzalez of San Antonio, Ruben Hinojosa of Mercedes, Eddie Bernice Johnson of Dallas, and Silvestre Reyes of El Paso. That's five Democrats and four Republicans. The rest of the Texans — eight Democrats and 15 Republicans — voted No.

The U.S. Senate race is closer than you think, according to a new Rasmussen Poll.

That outfit has Republican John Cornyn just seven percentage points ahead of Democrat Rick Noriega, 50 percent to 43 percent. They've had the distance between the two in the double-digits since June (a May poll by Rasmussen put it at four points before the June measured the gap at 17 points). That survey shows Cornyn with higher favorable ratings and lower unfavorable ratings than the Democrat. By Rasmussen's measure, 57 percent of voters have either a very or somewhat favorable impression of Cornyn, as against 46 percent for Noriega. Negatives? For Cornyn, 30 percent; for Noriega, 36 percent.

That polling firm has John McCain nine percentage points ahead of Barack Obama in Texas, the same margin that's separated those two since June. Their latest reading has McCain at 52 percent and Obama at 43 percent. McCain has left voters with a better impression, they said, getting favorable ratings from 63 percent of Texans. Obama's corresponding number is 52 percent. Unfavorables McCain were at 37 percent, as against the Democrat's 46 percent. And Texans, in this poll, like Sarah Palin more than they like Joe Biden. Her favorable/unfavorable percentages in Texas are 55/43; his are 46/48.

Those results are from the same survey, a telephone poll of 500 "likely voters" done on September 29, with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.

Clinton & Palin & Boehner, Texas bound...

Rick Noriega got an endorsement — and more importantly, a fundraising visit — from U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, who came to McAllen to front a fundraiser for the Senate hopeful. That area was one of Clinton's strongest in the presidential primary last March, and the visit offsets a string of South Texas endorsements for U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, the Republican Noriega is challenging.

Sarah Palin's first two gigs after the vice presidential debate will be in Dallas. She's scheduled to be at breakfast meeting with Hispanic leaders Friday morning, followed by a lunch in the same building with to help the Republican National Committee raise money.

And House Minority Leader John Boehner will be in the state over the weekend to help raise money for Pete Olson, the Republican challenging U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, D-Stafford. That is, as you can see, one of the national GOP's target races this year.

She hasn't firmed up the number yet, but Secretary of State Hope Andrade expects to have more than 13.2 million Texans on the voter rolls for this election and expects a "huge turnout" in November, partly because of growth in the state and partly because of high interest levels in both major political parties.

Monday, October 6, is the last day Texans can register to vote. Early voting starts two weeks later (on October 20), and Election Day is now less than five weeks away. Once they've got voter rolls and see how early voting is coming along, her office will make some predictions about election turnout. But everything else has been big this year, and she's anticipating more of that.

The 13.2 million number isn't huge, historically, though it would be a record. Nearly that many — 13.1 million — were on the rolls two years ago, before the gubernatorial elections. And Texas had 13.1 million voters registered as of the 2004 general election for president. Andrade's number might prove to be conservative.

As of September 22, 13,187,823 voters were registered in the state, according to Andrade's office. That number includes 2.9 million Hispanics. About two-thirds were over 40 years old. Women outnumbered men by about seven percentage points (though one in eight voters didn't check off the optional gender ID box on their registrations).

Andrade says voting officials in parts of the state hit by Hurricane Ike are fairly optimistic about the elections and says that Galveston and Chambers counties in particular had contingency plans and are telling her they'll be ready to go. Her office is also trying to get word out about voting by mail for people displaced by the storms (and anyone else who wants to vote that way). "Those that are displaced will have a way to vote," she says. "We're going to be very proactive, reaching out."

Uncertainties over the presidential race, Hurricane Ike's after-effects, and the rapidly changing economic news have political people on both sides of the aisle looking at bloated lists of hot races in the Texas House.

With all those moving parts, it's difficult to tell what's really in play and what just appears to be competitive. It'll thin out some, but it's late in the game to be looking at so many races. The next finance reports, due next week, will clear the air, as will (maybe) some of the polling both parties are doing in various districts. We'll thin our own lists after a look at those reports; the most recent version is available in our Files section.

Four congressional races are still on the list, and three Senate races. And there are 19 to 21 House races that, depending on your informant, are worth considering. So is this: Consultants on both sides are expecting only incremental change in the makeup of the House. A pickup of more than two or three seats would be a big day for either party.

But there's still a month to argue about it.

The polls and partial polls that've been shared with us aren't at all clear. In the Panhandle, Rep. Joe Heflin, a Crosbyton Democrat, is trying to win reelection in a House district where John McCain and John Cornyn — the Republicans in the top two races on the ticket — have two-to-one leads over their Democratic opponents. But Heflin, according to some of those same polls, is far ahead of Republican Isaac Castro of Hamlin.

Republicans are chattering about East Texas polls that show those same two top of the ticket Republicans well ahead in districts with incumbent Democrats — so-called WD-40s, or White Democrats over 40 years of age. They're pondering late investments in the challengers to Reps. Stephen Frost, MarkHomer and Chuck Hopson. Democrats with similar numbers in hand are taking things seriously but aren't having a cow about it: They point out that all three incumbents won in those districts when George W. Bush was stomping John Kerry there four years ago. Ballots in areas like those tend to be red at the top and blue at the bottom.

That tendency is purely local. In El Paso, Democrats are trying to take away a House seat that's been in Republican hands for years and year. It's a Democratic town in a Democratic county, but the local favorite in the presidential race, Hillary Clinton, lost the presidential primary. A sizable military population in HD-78 might look favorably on McCain. And there's this weird proximity thing going on. New Mexico is a swing state in the presidential election and also has a hot U.S. Senate race going on. If you're a candidate running television ads in New Mexico, you put ads on broadcast stations in El Paso to reach the southern half of that adjacent state. El Pasoans, as a result, are getting a run of presidential campaign ads that voters in the rest of the state will never see. That could drive up turnout. Dee Margo, the Republican who unseated Rep. Pat Haggerty in the primary, hopes it turns out his voters. Joe Moody, a Democrat whose father has won judicial races in the district, is hoping his locally known ballot name will out. Bush got 56 percent of the vote in 2004. And Gov. Rick Perry, who got only 39 percent statewide two years ago, won 53 percent of the vote in this district.

Endorsements, strange bedfellows, etc.

Rigo Villarreal, chief of staff to Hidalgo County Judge J.D. Salinas, took a leave of absence to help with U.S. Sen. John Cornyn's campaign. The man-bites-dog bit here is that Salinas is a Democrat and Cornyn is a Republican. The Villarreal hire was part of a Cornyn announcement that 40 South Texas leaders from both parties have endorsed his reelection effort against Democrat Rick Noriega, a state representative from Houston. Salinas isn't on the list himself, but former Webb County Judge Mercurio Martinez and current Jim Hogg County Judge Lupe Canales both are. And there are a dozen sheriffs among the people on that list.

• The Texas Parent PAC likes Democrat Donnie Dippel in the race to replace Rep. Robby Cook, D-Eagle Lake. That group disagrees with the Republican, Tim Kleinschmidt, on publicly funded vouchers for private schools. He's not against them, apparently, and that's their key issue. Kleinschmidt, meanwhile, picked up an endorsement from the Texas Farm Bureau's AGFUND over Dippel, a longtime employee of the Texas Department of Agriculture.

• The Parent PAC also endorsed Sam Murphey, the Democrat in the race to replace Rep. Dianne White Delisi. The Republican in that contest is Ralph Sheffield.

• Joan Huffman won over the Texas branch of the National Federation of Independent Business in the special election in SD-17. She's one of four Republicans in that six-candidate race to replace Republican Kyle Janek in the state Senate. Chris Bell, one of the two Democrats, snagged the endorsement of the Houston Professional Firefighters Association.

• Greg Meyers has a list of educators who are endorsing him over Rep. Hubert Vo, D-Houston, and it's got a few Democrats on it. One is Houston Federation of Teachers President Gayle Fallon; another is former state Rep. Diana Davila of Houston. Meyers, a Republican, is a former Houston ISD trustee. Vo, meanwhile, got the endorsements of the Texas Federation of Teachers (HFT's parent), and the Texas State Teachers Association.

It turns out there's a section of the state's property tax law that lets local governments ask for reappraisals of property after hurricanes and other disasters.

That would lower the tax bill for a property owner whose building was damaged or destroyed by, say, Hurricane Ike. And Republican Austen Furse got the jump on everyone, calling on governments in the 17th state Senate district to give the break to property owners there. Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond, and Sen. Mike Jackson, R-La Porte, quickly joined the chorus. It has to be in an area declared a disaster by the governor (check). The taxing entity — school district, hospital district, whatever — has to call for reappraisals (not yet). Then the tax bills are prorated for the part of the year affected. In the case of Ike, that would mean taxes on the old property value for 256 days of the year, and taxes on the new value for the remainder of the year.

• Consider the source, but Mike Anderson's campaign says his polling shows he's well ahead of Democrat Robert Miklos in HD-101. The poll, done by Austin-based Shaw Research, has the former Mesquite mayor up by 13 points. They think they found the reason: Only one in eight of the respondents had heard of the Democrat.

• Same caveat, different race: Democrat Larry Joe Doherty's new poll shows him, he says, within five percentage points of U.S. Rep. Mike McCaul, R-Austin. He says McCaul's "reelect" number — the measure of how many people want him back — is under 50 percent. And two-thirds, Doherty says, don't know the incumbent's name.

• A group of groups has formed to promote career and college readiness in public schools, better career and technical education, and incentives for teachers. The members of the new Texas Coalition for a Competitive Workplace include the Texas Association of Business, the Texas Institute for Education Reform, the Texas Public Policy Foundation, the Governor’s Business Council, and the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce. They'll be pushing for new accountability measures to track student progress, for curriculum changes aimed at getting students ready for college, and for "pay for performance" grants to schools that do the best job.

• Flip on the oven light, peek: A Dallas appellate court heard arguments in Sen. Kim Brimer's lawsuit seeking to knock Wendy Davis off the ballot, but there's no decision yet. Brimer, the Republican incumbent, says Davis wasn't eligible to challenge him because she was still on the Fort Worth City Council after the filing deadline. It's too late to take her off the ballot if he's right, and a lower court disagreed with him this summer. No indication when the Dallas court might rule.

Texans in Congress voted 15-17 on the bailout the second time around, after voting 9-23 the first time. If there's an asterisk next to a name, that's a member whose vote changed from the first vote early in the week to the second on Friday.

Democrats — 9-4

Aye: *Henry Cuellar of Laredo, Chet Edwards of Waco, Charlie Gonzalez of San Antonio, *Al Green of Houston, Ruben Hinojosa of Mercedes, *Sheila Jackson-Lee of Houston, Eddie Bernice Johnson of Dallas, *Solomon Ortiz of Corpus Christi, and Silvestre Reyes of El Paso.

Nay: Lloyd Doggett of Austin, Gene Green of Houston, Nick Lampson of Stafford, and Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio.

Republicans — 6-13

Aye: Kevin Brady of The Woodlands, *Michael Conaway of Midland, Kay Granger of Fort Worth, Pete Sessions of Dallas, Lamar Smith of San Antonio, and *Mac Thornberry of Clarendon.

Nay: Joe Barton of Ennis, Michael Burgess of Flower Mound, John Carter of Georgetown, John Culberson of Houston, Louis Gohmert of Tyler, Ralph Hall of Rockwall, Jeb Hensarling of Dallas, Sam Johnson of Plano, Kenny Marchant of Coppell, Michael McCaul of Austin, Randy Neugebauer of Lubbock, Ron Paul of Lake Jackson, Ted Poe of Humble.

Texas Libertarians, for the most part, don't like the bailout approved by Congress this week. And their party collected their comments and sent them along. Here they are, unfiltered:

AUSTIN - October 3, 2008 - Many Texas Libertarian candidates for Congress have confirmed their opposition to the massive bailout bill that was passed in the U.S. House this morning.

Libertarian U.S. Senate candidate Yvonne Adams Schick has stated her opposition to the bailout bill. Both her Republican opponent, John Cornyn, and Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison voted for the bill.

District 8 candidate Brian Stevens said, "I oppose the bailout as proposed because it does not assign responsibility to the culpable parties nor does it remedy the root causes of the problem." (District 8 congressman Kevin Brady voted for the bill.)

District 15 candidate Gricha Raether commented, "This is absolutely ridiculous." (District 15 congressman Ruben Hinojosa voted for the bill.)

District 17 candidate Gardner C. Osborner confirmed his opposition. (District 17 congressman Chet Edwards voted for the bill.)

District 21 candidate James Arthur Strohm said, "I condemn [Lamar Smith's] vote FOR this bill on its first round in the House, as I condemn the vote of any Congressman who thought it was a good enough idea to vote for." (District 21 congressman Lamar Smith voted for the bill.)

District 27 candidate Robert E. Powell confirmed his opposition. (District 27 congressman Solomon P. Ortiz voted for the bill.)

District 28 candidate Ross Lynn Leone said, "This is the beginning, make that the middle, of the path to socialism, and the fact both parties backed this scheme shows there is no real difference in the Dems and Reps." (District 28 congressman Henry Cuellar voted for the bill.)

Libertarian candidates for Congress in districts 3, 5, 22, 23, 24, and 25 also confirmed their opposition to the bill.

District 11 candidate John R. Strohm said, "I have no formal comment until I've had time to read the actual bill." (District 11 congressman Michael Conaway voted for the bill.)

Other Libertarian congressional candidates have not been reached for comment.

The Libertarian Party of Texas (LPT) has nominated candidates for U.S. Senator, and for 29 of the 32 congressional districts in Texas.

Scratch U.S. Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio from the fundraising team at a weekend event for Republican Pete Olson. He got tangled up in the bailout talks and votes and all, and won't be there. Olson is running against U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, D-Stafford, in CD-22.

• U.S. Sen. John Cornyn raised $1.9 million during the last three months and entered the last month of the campaign with $7.2 million on hand. That's from a press release; reports will be filed with the Federal Election Committee next week. Cornyn is running for reelection against Democrat Rick Noriega, a state representative making his first statewide run.

• Republican Tim Kleinschmidt won the endorsement of the Texas wing of the National Federation of Independent Business. He's the Republican in the open seat HD-17 contest to replace Rep. Robby Cook, D-Eagle Lake. And he's promising that, if he's elected, he'll use "some of the project $10 billion state budget surplus to lower local property taxes and exempt more small businesses from the state business tax." You'll find some argument in Austin about those numbers, but the NFIB apparently likes the sentiment.

• What a difference a debate makes. Veep candidate Sarah Palin is scheduled to headline a fundraiser in San Antonio this weekend, and state Rep. candidate Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi is going. And he'll meet her. And he put out a press release telling us about it.

• Former U.S. Sen. Alan Simpson, R-Wyoming, is apparently an old friend of Bill Dingus' and endorsed the Midland Democrat's challenge to House Speaker Tom Craddick. Dingus has a Simpson video up on his website.

• This is what happens to people who work in gubernatorial press offices after those glory days are over. Ted Royer, who moved to sunny California after working for Gov. Rick Perry, is now working with movie people. And instead of spinning for politicians, he's spinning for political movies. He's trying to get us to write about a conservative spoof called An American Carol that opened in Texas this week. We're not gonna.

Robert "Butch" Hiram Sparks, Jr., passed away at home in Austin on Saturday, September 27, 2008. He had fought esophageal cancer for more than two years with bravery, tenacity and quiet dignity.Born in Temple, Texas, on August 2, 1943, Butch spent his early years in Troy and Temple and graduated from Chula Vista High School, Chula Vista, CA. He received a B.A. in Political Science from San Diego State University in 1965 and a J.D. from The University of Texas School of Law in 1969. Butch had been employed as the Executive Director of the Licensed Beverage Distributors for more than 33 years, lobbying in Texas and Washington, D.C. He was also a member of the Board of Directors of the Austin Club since 1976. Butch is survived by his wife of 33 years, Lisa Bearden Sparks; their daughter Lauren Sparks Hamner and her husband Herschel Towles Hamner III, and grandchildren Catherine Marlowe Hamner and Robert Pierce Hamner, who was named after his beloved "Pops". He is also survived by his sister, Jackie Sparks, cousins, Cindy Wiewel and Sandra Grossman and mother-in-law, Halene A. Bearden. He was preceded in death by his parents, Jean E. and Robert H. Sparks and father-in-law, Richard C. Bearden. Butch was a gentle and kind man whose true passion was his family. He was a deeply devoted husband, father, grandfather and father-in-law and considered the love he shared with his family his greatest accomplishment. Eschewing traditional hobbies, he chose instead to spend his spare time joyfully giving them his undivided attention, support and love. His happiest moments were spent in their presence, although he did love his Saturday morning coffee group, playing poker with the "boys", spending hours on the phone discussing politics, and shopping at Central Market and Costco. Over the years, he spent hours giving wise advice to many young men and women who considered him their confidant and mentor. Butch was truly wonderful and selfless with a sweet and generous heart. He had an enormous zest for life, and his laugh was infectious. A true and loyal friend, Butch was given the special gift of saying goodbye to those he loved most. All those whose lives he touched will miss him tremendously. The family wishes to express deep gratitude and thanks to their many cherished friends and colleagues, with special appreciation to the dedicated doctors, nurses and staff at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. In lieu of flowers, the family requests that memorials be sent to The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, P.O. Box 4486, Houston, TX 77210, or Hospice Austin, 4107 Spicewood Springs Road #100, Austin, TX 78759. After a private burial, a memorial service will be held at 3 p.m. on Tuesday, September 30, 2008, at the First United Methodist Church Austin, 1201 Lavaca, followed by a "Celebration of Life" reception at the Austin Club, 110 E. 9th Street.

Eleanor Kim is leaving the government for DuCharme, McMillen & Associates, a tax consultancy. She was most recently head of the tax division at the State Office of Administrative Hearings and before that was a tax attorney with the Comptroller of Public Accounts.

Patrick Reinhart left Rep. Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, for the private sector. He's now in the lobby shop at the Brown McCarroll law firm.

Geoff Connor stepped down as chairman of CACH Capital Management, but the former Texas Secretary of State is still one of the firm's owners. He's got a lobby practice and a law firm to tend to.

Texas Parks & Wildlife is searching all over for a new deputy executive director for natural resources at the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. That's a new position overseeing the agency's Wildlife, Coastal and Inland Fisheries divisions.

Speaker Tom Craddick appointed Rep. Vicki Truitt, R-Keller, to the State Pension Review Board.

Gov. Rick Perry had a slew of appointments, naming:

• Alan Kirchhoff of Austin the director of the Texas Emerging Technology Fund, replacing Mark Ellison, who left Perry's staff to become associate vice chancellor of economic development at the Texas A&M University System. Kirchhoff was Ellison's deputy.

• Donna Williams to the Texas State University System Board of Regents. She's an exec with Parsons Infrastructure and Technology.

• Myrna Patterson McLeroy of Gonzales to another term on the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority Board. She's the owner of the McLeroy Land Group.

• Lisa Caldwell Brent and Cole Camp of Amarillo, and Penny Cogdell Carpenter of Silverton to the Red River Authority of Texas. Brent is a clothing retailer. Camp is a designated alternate for the Panhandle Water Planning Group. And Carpenter is a rancher.

Deaths: Lobbyist and Capitol wizard Robert "Butch" Sparks, Jr., a little more than two years after he was diagnosed with esophageal cancer. A liquor lobbyist known as one of the Booze Brothers, he was 65.

House Speaker Tom Craddick created a committee to look at the state's hurricane response and to figure out what lawmakers should do to improve it next time.

The House Select Committee on Hurricane Ike Storm Devastation to the Texas Gulf Coast includes Reps. Sylvester Turner, D-Houston, chairman, John Davis, R-Houston, vice chair, and Reps. Dennis Bonnen, R-Angleton, Joe Deshotel, D-Beaumont, Harold Dutton, D-Houston, Craig Eiland, D-Galveston, Mike Hamilton, R-Mauriceville, Patricia Harless, R-Spring, Dora Olivo, D-Rosenberg, Debbie Riddle, R-Tomball, Wayne Smith, R-Baytown, and Larry Taylor, R-Friendswood. In addition, there will be one public member, former state Sen. A.R. "Babe" Schwartz, who represented Galveston and now lives in Austin.

James Stark is the new assistant administrator for Gulf Coast Recovery for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Stark, based in New Orleans, is in charge of recovery operations in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama for Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, Rita, and Katrina. He was a Coast Guard officer before signing on with FEMA two years ago.