All Those People

It took five days in 2004 to get the first 10 percent of the voters to the polls. It took three days this year. Early voting in those first three days was up 73 percent in the state's top 14 counties, according to the Texas Secretary of State.

Houston was particularly energetic, with an increase of 118 percent. Turnout was up 138 percent in Fort Bend County, and nearly doubled in Bexar County.

A pollster doing work in Harris County tells us that nine in ten voters who showed up in those early days had also voted in the primaries, that half of those were from the Democratic primaries and that about 30 percent voted in the Republican primaries. Another Harris County politico from the GOP side put the Democrat-to-Republican numbers at 2.6-to-1 on the first day of voting and 2.4-to-1 on the second day.

So, with nine days of early voting left to tally, what's it mean? Are Democrats more enthusiastic and voting right away? Will the numbers even out as the days pass? Are they voting for more than just president and in what numbers? Will there be a flood of new voters? What's hype and what's not?

We looked at the primary election numbers, just for a comparison, and it's not even close: Even with the excitement over the March elections, only about three percent of Texas voters showed up in the first three days of early voting. And only 11.4 percent voted early in those two primaries. The general election numbers ought to hit that mark in the first week of voting.

And where are the patterns changing? We're watching a mess of House and Senate races in places where incumbents are supposed to be safe. Suburban Texas used to belong to Republicans, at least most of the time. Now there are hot contests in Williamson, Fort Bend, and suburban areas of Dallas, Tarrant, Harris, and Travis.

The Texas ballot still looks to be redder at the top and bluer at the bottom, but is that purple area in the middle creeping closer to the statewide races? That's a question for November 5, and for the candidates from both parties who have their eyes on 2010.

More on that in two weeks. Start with a look at the early voting in big counties (which we're updating daily as numbers come in), and at our list of hot contests ( updated weekly ).

 

Suburban Battleground: Tarrant County

The race for HD-96 has Democrats almost ready to pull out the confetti and streamers for their candidate, Chris Turner. But the Republicans are confident that early voter turnout for incumbent Bill Zedler, R-Arlington, is giving Turner a run for his money.

"We're very confident, and I'm not just saying that," says Craig Murphy, Zedler's consultant. (Murphy says he recommended Zedler spend his time at the polls, not talking to the press, so we haven't heard back from the candidate.) "He's [Turner] on all the Democratic target lists, but if this is the quality of the Democratic target lists, they've got big problems this year."

Zedler was first elected in 2002. His last few Democratic challengers weren't well funded. Even so, Zedler won with only 52 percent of the vote to Democrat Chris Youngblood's 44 percent in 2006. This year, primary turnout for the Democrats in the district was more than double that of the Republicans. Based on those numbers, Democrats are opening their wallets for Turner. He's a first-time candidate, but isn't new to politics: Turner worked for former U.S. Rep. Martin Frost's staff and then went to work for U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Waco as a campaign manager and district director.

Zedler's people think Turner's all hype.

"The biggest problem for Turner is that it's a Republican district, and he's a former political consultant," Murphy says. "That's not really the background people are looking for. They want someone who has had a real job — a doctor or a teacher or a businessperson."

"I was able to work on the government side on a number of issues," says Turner of his work with Edwards. "The experience of having been involved in his office has been nothing but positive in my race."

Democratic consultant Matt Angle says he wouldn't call Turner a consultant, because he was a member of Edwards' staff (That's a fine line: The Turner Group, a political consultancy, is paid $7,000 a month by the Texas Democratic Trust, run by Angle. Lisa Turner, the principal, is the candidate's wife). Angle says he's known quite a few candidates that worked on campaigns before running for office.

"It depends on the individual," Angle says. "If you're a good candidate, that experience can be pretty valuable."

It hasn't hurt the bank. Turner raised $240,166 from January to the end of June, and $195,046 from July to the end of September. He had about $184,464 in cash at the end of September. Zedler raised $83,790 from January to June, and then $125,509 from July to Sept. He reported $134,160 cash on hand.

Turner has the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's support (they don’t endorse, they recommend). And until we brought it their attention Tuesday, Zedler was claiming on his website that the paper is with him. He had it in ’06, and for this year’s primary. But he doesn't now, and he pulled down the reference.

Both candidates are talking about primary election turnout.

The Turner campaign has capitalized on record turnout in the primary. Democrats in HD-96 outnumbered Republicans about 2.5 to 1.

Murphy says Turner has "made a career" out of using those numbers, and he thinks it's worthless now because it only reflected the tension within the Democratic Party over the presidential candidates.

"That doesn't change the dynamics of the district," Murphy says. "He [Turner] would have had more success running in the last election, when Republican turnout was sort of depressed," says.

There's no way to know party breakdown of early voting, but the Republicans in Tarrant County seem to be confident. Murphy believes only about a third of the people who showed up for the first day of early voting were Democrats.

"We get a list everyday of who has voted, and where they voted," says Stephanie Klick, chair of the Tarrant County GOP, "and we're encouraged."

But Turner says the dynamics of the district are in his favor. Like other suburban sprawls in the state, parts of Tarrant County are filled with new subdivisions of lower-cost housing, bringing younger and more racially diverse families, which Turner says makes for a more competitive district.

The candidates have faced off in two forums, and taxes were the subject both emphasized. Turner says Zedler wants to increase the sales tax to 13 percent and use the money to replace property taxes.

"That's why Turner's losing this race," says Murphy, who contends a Democrat could never win a political debate about taxes.

Zedler's campaign has been all over Turner on taxes and is trying to link him with presidential candidate Barack Obama in mail pieces. One says Turner supports Obama's plan to increase taxes, because "Turner's boss, Democrat Chet Edwards, was considered a Vice Presidential Pick for Barak Obama." Angle calls Zedler campaign mailers "blatantly false" and "clumsily cited."

"This is one of the Democrats best opportunities to win," says Angle, "and Zedler is in a full-blown panic. He's done nothing but put out attack pieces. "

Murphy says Zedler's got no reason to panic: "This is a year that Republicans are going to come out and vote."

—by Karie Meltzer

Suburban Battleground: Harris County

Voters in HD-144 have been getting something in their mailboxes resembling a Halloween party invitation. No, wait, it's mailer attacking Democratic candidate Joel Redmond as a liberal.

But the piece from the Empower Texans PAC, which is supporting Republican candidate Ken Legler, has caused a stir. Democrats say the mailer, which makes its point by surrounding Redmond, who's white, with photos of minority Democrats under a canopy of blackbirds. The authors say the Democrats are the problem.

"It's sickening there are folks who want to make something racist out of something that isn't," says Empower Texans President Michael Quinn Sullivan. "This is Texas in the 21st century. Texans are not racist. Being racist doesn't make you win elections. Racists don't win elections. Call me naïve, but I think voters are much more interested in issues."

Redmond won't directly comment. "We've had a well laid-out plan from the beginning, and I'd rather not get sidetracked," he says.

Robert Talton, R-Pasadena, decided not to seek reelection in the district. In 2006, Talton won with 56.3 percent to Democrat Janette Padilla Sexton's 40.6 percent. Democrats say the demographics — and the profiles of this year's candidates — put the district in reach. Republicans agree the race is competitive, but think it'll remain red on Election Day.

Legler is way behind in the money game, raising $78,085 from July through September to Redmond's $240,859. Homebuilder Bob Perry contributed $25,000 to Legler's campaign, and another $50,000 to Empower Texans in the last Texas Ethics Commission reporting cycle. Texans for Public Justice, taking Redmond's side, is pointing fingers at Perry for the mailer.

Sullivan says he wasn't able to give the piece final approval and never saw the finished product until it was out the door. The PAC has always done its mailers in house, but this time handed that chore to Legler's Houston consultant, Allen Blakemore.

"We made an exception, and we're not going to do that anymore," Sullivan says. "But, the words are correct. The message is right."

Sullivan says he doesn't see anything racially charged about the ad, and contends, "some people could see a Coca Cola bottle on a green background and say it's racist."

His problem is that the piece lacks the actual voting records of the depicted elected officials, and he would have liked to see a few more pictures. "But I can see how that would have crowded the page," Sullivan says.

Redmond is the son of a prominent Baptist minister, Dr. Charles Redmond. Not the typical profile for a Democrat, but in a conservative suburb like Pasadena, where most HD-144 voters live, that's not a bad thing. Redmond consultant Dan McClung says his client's religious ties position him as centrist candidate. That, in turn, forces Legler to prove he's the real conservative.

Blakemore says that dynamic has made it extra challenging.

"Pasadena is not like the rest of the world. It's a cliquish, small town that is no longer a small town," says Blakemore. "It's not the same place that Bud and Sissy and Urban Cowboy lived. You've got Ken Legler, who was born and raised in the district, involved in the chambers and local businesses and kids sports, against the son of a pastor of the megachurch. It's an interesting contest."

When Pres. George Bush was governor, he appointed Legler to the Texas Commission for Environmental Quality Advisory Board For Small Businesses. Gov. Rick Perry reappointed him. Even with that in his bio, Legler admits his opponent's father is actually one of his biggest challenges.

"I have to let them know I'm the conservative, the true conservative," he says. "I'm not running against his father."

But Dr. Redmond isn't the only one involved with the church. His son the candidate, a partner with Legend Home Lending, founded Peace by Believing Ministries, a group that works in state prisons and with the homeless.

Mortgages? Ding ding ding! Legler and Blakemore say Legend Home Lending used to advertise sub-prime mortgages on its website. They chastised Redmond's connection to mortgages and the national economic mess in a press release, and Empower Texans PAC chipped in with an Internet ad . Legend took references to its sub-prime offerings off its website.

"I'm not saying that was the only business Redmond did," Blakemore says, "but he advertised the fact that he wanted to do that kind of business."

McClung defended his client, emphasizing that sub-prime loans have only accounted for about 1 percent of Legend Home Lending's mortgages. Redmond called the attacks "ludicrous," and didn't want to bother talking about it.

"I'll let them pay for their own publicity," he says.

Redmond's people are talking about dependents. A friend of Redmond's, Johnnie Roundtree, filed an ethics complaint with the Texas Ethics Commission accusing Legler of hiring his own daughter, a dependent, to work on his campaign. That would violate state election laws.

Legler says his 22-year-old daughter, Krystina Legler, is not listed as a dependent on his tax forms. He did, however, list her as a dependent when he filled out his TEC paperwork.

"She lives in her own apartment and pays for her own gas and food," Legler says, "but she is on my health insurance, and I do help her out, so I guess I just did that out of habit."

—by Karie Meltzer

Fill 'er Up

Democratic statehouse candidates will have at least one significant source of late money this cycle, courtesy of trial lawyer and one-time U.S. Senate candidate Mikal Watts.

Reports on file with the Texas Ethics Commission show that Watts donated $400,000 to a moribund Democratic political action committee based in San Antonio called Vote Texas. The PAC's one-page Web site said it is pushing for ethics reform, accountability and "lean, efficient government."

The Ethics Commission report also showed that the PAC gave Democratic House candidates Diana Maldonado of Round Rock and Donnie Dippel of La Grange $25,000 and $30,000, respectively, and incumbent Rep. Juan Garcia of Corpus Christi $10,000.

Dippel and Maldonado are running for open seats and Garcia is seeking his second term against former Rep. Todd Hunter. All three races are considered razor close.

Vote Texas' consultant Jim Dow — who also heads the 20/20 PAC — declined to discuss how the $355,000 remaining in the PAC's account at the beginning of the month might be divvied up. Campaign representatives of the Republican candidates in the races targeted so far by Vote Texas did not return calls Friday.

Vote Texas has been a registered PAC since 1993, Ethics Commission records show, but has never had access to the amount of cash dropped last month by Watts.

— by John Moritz

Shoot What Moves, Claim What Falls

The state's campaign finance cops will tell you that complaints against candidates rise in the early spring and the late fall — when primary and general elections are held.

The October flurries are underway. And we can say this, based on experience: You won't have a definitive answer (unless someone confesses) about any of these until well after the elections are over. They're not usually being filed to make the world a more ethical place — they're being filed to make political opponents less attractive to voters.

Still, some turn out to be substantive in addition to being politically effective. Time will tell.

The latest spate issued from the campaign of Sen. Kim Brimer, R-Fort Worth, and is directed at Democrat Wendy Davis and, in one case, at the people providing air cover for her campaign.

Davis held a press conference Friday afternoon in Fort Worth to knock down Brimer's complaints and to accuse him of filing them to generate news he can use to sustain his political attacks on her. "Kim Brimer has filed complaint after complaint after complaint, and he's not doing it with legitimate concerns," she said. "He is making a blatant attempt to use the media to advance falsehoods, and he is doing it to hide his own record."

Item : Brimer, referring to Davis' campaign finance reports, says she's getting an in-kind contribution of office space from Peter Lyden of Fort Worth, to the tune of $2,300 per month. But Brimer's researchers found that the building in question is owned by a Nevada corporation, Leo E. Wanta & Associates, Inc. And that, they say, makes the contribution of office space an illegal contribution from a corporation to a candidate for the Texas Legislature. He announced that by saying he'd filed a complaint on the issue with the Texas Ethics Commission. Davis says the contributions are legal, but her aides are still putting together their defense of that charge.

Item : Brimer says two Democratic political action committees are operating on Davis' behalf without properly disclosing their assistance to the state. They filed ethics complaints against the Lone Star Fund PAC and the Texas Values in Action PAC. And they filed a complaint against WFAA-TV in Dallas with the Federal Elections Commission over a news story that didn't disclose that someone working for the Texas Values in Action PAC is also employed as a campaign aide to Davis. Matt Angle, the Washington, D.C., consultant who runs the Lone Star Fund, says "all of the paperwork that's supposed to be filed has been filed, and lawyers have been over everything to make sure it's in order." Brimer's also accused those PACs of working in coordination with Davis. Eight minutes before her press conference began, the Lone Star Project — part of Angle's effort on behalf of Texas Democrats — sent reporters an email detailing "The Brimer Strategy" and making the same points Davis made minutes later.

Item : Brimer filed a complaint with state insurance regulators accusing Republic Title of paying Davis "for steering title insurance business" to the company. The arrangement, according to the complaint, was part of a divorce settlement between Davis and her husband, who owned the company at the time. That complaint accuses her of "unauthorized practice of insurance." At her press conference, Davis said she's never accepted commissions or incentive payments from the firm, and produced a contract saying so, along with a letter from Fort Worth's city attorney, who blessed the contract when she joined the city council.

Brimer has been the loudest complainer this month, but he's not alone in Texas politics.

Item : Texans for Public Justice filed a complaint against 3rd Court of Appeals Judge Alan Waldrop with the State Commission on Judicial Conduct after he declined to recuse himself from a case involving a former client. He's not on the ballot this year, but the issue now involves that court's top judge, Ken Law, who is up for election next month.

Item : Sherrie Matula, the Democrat in the HD-129 race, filed a complaint against Rep. John Davis, R-Houston, for a mailer attributed to "Friends of John Davis," a PAC that doesn't exist. Davis' consultant said the mailer should've said "Texans for John Davis," which does exist.

The Going Gets Weird

The former Republican senator from SD-17 called bull on a PAC he funded that is supporting the candidate he has endorsed. That PAC's director, and that candidate, apologized for a nasty mailer they sent out. And then they launched another attack. And then a bigger PAC endorsed the opponent. And then a party official in the district endorsed the opponent.

Somewhere, the Democrats are laughing.

Start here: Houston political consultant Allen Blakemore apologized for a mailer accusing former Judge Joan Huffman of taking excessive time off from her court ( the full apology is here ). But the mailer that made the charges is in the hands of voters, and it's not clear the apology will have that same reach. They followed their apology by saying they weren't going to send correcting mailers, and by attacking Huffman for being "soft on crime" for accepting plea agreements from prosecutors in several child molestation cases.

Huffman's camp put the blame on Austen Furse, a Republican rival for the SD-17 seat whose campaign — like that of the Best for Texas PAC — is being run by Blakemore. Furse, according to Huffman, asked to meet "under a streetlight across from the Southside Police station" to apologize. Huffman wants him to apologize to each of the 55,000 people they say got that mailer.

Next, Huffman got the endorsement of Texans for Lawsuit Reform, which had said earlier it would stay out of the first round of the race to replace Kyle Janek. TLR had given money to Stephanie Simmons — one of the two Democrats in the contest— but had left the four Republicans to their own devices.

Now, with the factually challenged attacks from Blakemore and Furse, the group decided to openly back Huffman. The tort PAC said in its endorsement that it would be happy with either Simmons or Huffman in the Senate. They contributed $2,500 to Simmons in the last reporting period; a spokeswoman wouldn't say whether they've given to Huffman yet. The group also took a swipe at Democrat Chris Bell, the best-known candidate, as an ally of the trial lawyers TLR opposes. Bell's campaign said TLR is trying to squeeze their guy into a runoff with Huffman.

And to cap it all off, Yvonne Dewey, the GOP Chairman in Brazoria County, is endorsing Huffman in that race and says, like TLR, that she's throwing in because of the nasty stuff other Republicans are throwing at the former judge. And she's urging other Republicans to call the Best for Texas PAC and give them an earful.

Meanwhile Furse hit email boxes with a list of endorsements in his bid for the SD-17 seat that includes former President George H. W. Bush, Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt, former Harris County Judge Robert Eckels and others.

Janek weighed in, too.Janek's name has been invoked, since he gave his money to the Best for Texas PAC, which is in turn using that money to attack Huffman, first with the bogus vacation story and now with the "soft on crime" bit about child molesters. Blakemore worked for Janek and now runs both the Best PAC and the Furse campaign. Asked about the skirmishes, Janek responded with a written reply:

"While I have not seen the ads or emails being discussed, I have been getting calls about them and I have heard the rumors.

"I know three things. The first is that any assertion that Judge Joan Huffman was soft on criminals, especially based on plea recommendations from the Harris County D.A.’s office, strikes me as ridiculous. The second is that Austen Furse (whom I have endorsed) and Joan Huffman are both very good people whom I respect and to whom I could entrust my kids. The third is that Allen Blakemore works to help Republicans, not Democrats – always has, always will.

"Actually, there is one more thing I know: hyperventilation is bad for the brain – it literally constricts the blood vessels that feed the grey matter. (Go ahead – Google it.)

"I wish that everyone would stand down on this nonsense."

Things to Worry About on November 5

The honchos at Texans for Lawsuit Reform met with Reps. Jim Keffer of Eastland and Byron Cook of Corsicana a few days ago, but say that meet-up was regular business and had nothing to do with the race for speaker of the Texas House.

Just dinner. No hanky panky.

"It would be a mistake to read anything into it about the Speakers' race," said Dick Trabulsi, through a spokeswoman. The meeting was attended by Trabulsi, Dick Weekley, Leo Linbeck, Hugh Rice Kelly, and Bob Perry.

Keffer and Cook are rivals of House Speaker Tom Craddick, part of a small group of House Republicans who, like the majority of House Democrats, want to elect a new speaker. That politicking has been going on at a relatively quiet level since the end of the last legislative session. That was the session that featured bookend challenges to Craddick: He won reelection after a dramatic opening fight at the beginning of the session, and staved off a challenge by refusing to officially recognize his opponents at the end.

TLR has friends on all sides and doesn't want to play, according to spokeswoman Sherry Sylvester. "We see the speaker's race as something the members decide — we always have.

"It's very unlikely that an opponent of lawsuit reform could be elected speaker," she added.

Keffer's name is among those most often mentioned as potential Republican challengers to Craddick, along with (recently) Reps. Edmund Kuempel of Seguin and Charlie Geren of Fort Worth. Should the election flip five or more seats to the Democrats, giving them a majority, the most-mentioned names right now are Reps. Allen Ritter of Nederland, Craig Eiland of Galveston, and Pete Gallego of Alpine.

Democrats' hope for a majority has dampened talk of a challenge to Craddick. With that possibility open, Democrats won't commit to a Republican challenger. And without a Democratic commitment, none of the challengers can put together a majority.

Who Won?

The Texas Association of Business plead guilty to making an illegal direct corporate campaign contribution, paid a $10,000 fine, and ended a six-year criminal case that started with TAB's work to get a herd of Republicans elected to the Texas House in 2002.

The group followed its court appearance — which included an apology — with a defiant letter blasting the lame-duck district attorney who's been after them for all these years. "Six years of political persecution by Ronnie Earle has come to an end with a misdemeanor over a bookkeeping error. Hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars that could have been used to protect our streets have been wasted. The bottom line is that the free speech rights of corporations and associations to inform the public on how their elected officials represent them are completely upheld."

The case started when TAB's political action committee, with corporate donations, sent out a flood of "educational" mailers about the candidates in nearly two dozen House races. Travis County prosecutors said the mailers — and the activities of TAB president Bill Hammond and lobbyist Jack Campbell — amounted to illegal corporate participation in state elections. The two sides have been battling over the details of that accusation for six years.

"The law in Texas is clear," Earle said. "Texas citizens, the people of Texas, are entitled to a voice in democracy; corporations are not, just as they are not entitled to vote."

Indictments related to the mailers were dismissed earlier. This settlement closes the last remaining indictment in the case. Earle, who didn't seek reelection, leaves office in January.

Hammond was more contrite in his court-ordered statement after pleading guilty: "I now recognize that while working as a salaried employee of the Texas Association of Business, it was a violation of the law to expressly advocate for the election of these candidates."

A related case involving the Texans for a Republican Majority political action committee, or TRMPAC, is ongoing.

Earle's statement on the agreement includes a list of things corporations can and cannot do in Texas, and a promise that his office will keep reading the law this way. That caught the notice of the Professional Advocacy Association of Texas — the "lobby lobby" — which sent a memo to members suggesting they look note the prosecutor's reading of the law.

Quoting from the prosecutor's press release:

• "There is no exception in Texas law for corporate employees or resources to be used to benefit campaigns for public office other than communications to a corporation’s own restricted class.

• "Under the law in Texas, there is no exception for de minimus activity funded by corporate resources. Any use of corporate resources of any nature to benefit a campaign for public office is a violation of the corporate prohibition, including the use of corporate facilities, corporate property, corporate employees or corporate expense reimbursement.

• "Any use of corporate resources to benefit a political action committee, other than for expenditures for the formation, administration or permissible class solicitation allowed by Chapter 253.100 of the Texas Election Code is prohibited.

• "Any corporate employee that wishes to donate his or her personal services to a candidate or political action committee must do so on his or her own personal time, which should be noted in advance and clearly documented in corporate records.

• "A corporation may not reimburse the expenses of a corporate employee who has taken personal time to engage in campaign activities."

Flotsam & Jetsam

The 30-day (state) and quarterly (federal) reports are all on file now, so we've updated our charts , filling in the blanks where finance reports were missing. Some summary info is in order: In the four congressional races we're watching, Democrats have outraised Republicans $7.8 million to $5.3 million and held a $1.1 million advantage in cash-on-hand at the end of the reporting period. In three Senate races on the radar, Democrats have outraised Republicans, but the number to watch is cash-on-hand, where Republicans held a $2.8 million advantage at the end of September. And in the Texas House, Democrats outraised Republicans from July to September, pulling in $2.9 million to the Republican candidates' $1.8 million. The advantage in cash-on-hand? The Democrats, with about $1 million more than their opponents.

• U.S. Sen. John Cornyn leads Democrat Rick Noriega by 15 percentage points in the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports. That outfit had Cornyn at 55 percent and Noriega at 40 percent in a poll of 500 "likely voters" done on October 21. Their margin of error: +/- 4.5 percent. Rasmussen had the two candidates only seven points apart at the end of September. Earlier monthly surveys showed a wider split. Cornyn is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters and unfavorably by 32 percent. The corresponding numbers for Noriega: 43 favorable, 42 unfavorable. And they say Cornyn leads 54 percent to 32 percent among the remaining undecided voters.

• The same pollsters have Republican John McCain ahead of Democrat Barack Obama in Texas, 54 percent to 44 percent. Just one percent of voters said they haven't decided on a candidate. That's about where the candidates have been since mid-summer, when a series of monthly polls showed them steady at nine points apart. The favorable/unfavorable breaks on the candidates for president among Texas voters: 66/33 for McCain, and 47/52 for Obama.

• Noriega's campaign is touting a poll done for the Daily Kos — a prominent Democratic website — that has Cornyn at 50 percent and Noriega at 44 percent.

• Texas Democrats are worried about straight-ticket voters making a mistake and "de-selecting" their preference for presidential candidate Barack Obama or anyone else, and they're worried because of a string of emails telling people to "make sure" of their votes by voting straight ticket and then voting again for Obama. If you vote a straight ticket, then vote for a particular candidate in that party, the second vote is recorded as an exception — that is, a vote for everyone on the ticket except for that one. State Democrats were alarmed by emails that circulated and instructed people to "be sure" of their vote by voting straight and then voting for Obama. That would, in fact, delete their vote.

They didn't say this, but we'll add it: If you want to vote a straight ticket for, say, the Democrats, but want to vote for one Republican on the ballot, you vote straight Democrat and then pull the lever (punch the chad, fill in the oval, click the switch) for the Republican you like.

• The unemployment rate in Texas last month rose to 5.1 percent, compared with 4.3 percent in the same month of 2007. The change from August to September was slight. And according to the Texas Workforce Commission, one major reason for the rise was Hurricane Ike, and that effect is expected to be even more pronounced in the October numbers.

Political People and Their Moves

Jody Richardson moves to Brown McCarroll after 17 years at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, joining the lobby shop of that Austin law firm.

Leonard Olson, director of government affairs at the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, is leaving government for the private sector; he'll open a consulting and lobby shop.

Robert Elder, who's kept an eye on state pension funds and investments as a reporter at the Austin American-Statesman, is leaving the press corps for an inside job: He's taking a job with Commissioner Denise Voigt Crawford at the State Securities Board, starting in November.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed Ada Brown of Dallas and John Thomas Steen Jr. of San Antonio to the Texas Public Safety Commission. Brown is an attorney and former criminal judge. Steen is an attorney and former chairman of the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission.

Quotes of the Week

John McCain, spoofing at the Al Smith Dinner, a benefit for underprivileged children, quoted by Politico.com: "I'm the underdog, but there are signs of hope. I can't shake the feeling that some people here are pulling for me. I am delighted to see you here tonight, Hillary."

U.S. Rep. Michele Bachman, R-Minnesota, on MSNBC's Hardball: "I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out, are they pro-America or anti-America? I think people would be — would love to see an expose like that."

House Appropriations Chairman Warren Chisum, R-Pampa, after walking the Texas Taxpayers & Research Association through a list of obligations offsetting the state's balances: "We're eating at the surplus... This session will be business as usual: We'll live within our means and try to get out of here."

Rep. Pat Haggerty, R-El Paso, telling The Newspaper Tree that he'll be lobbying next session and explaining the difference between his elected job and that one: "Number one, you don't get as good of a parking place, and number two, you don't get to vote."

Joe "The Plumber" Wurzelbacher, quoted by the Associated Press on his instant fame: "I'm kind of like Britney Spears having a headache. Everybody wants to know about it."


Texas Weekly: Volume 25, Issue 41, 27 September 2008. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2008 by Printing Production Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 302-5703 or email biz@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 288-6598.

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Rick Noriega, the Democrat challenging U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, has a new Internet spot with a Halloween theme.

With the November 4 election looming, candidates are kicking their advertising campaigns into high gear, and bloggers are tuned in. The bloggers also voting early, playing Nostradamus and policing the criminal justice system. And then there are a few items on political contests.

* * * * *

Too Commercial

A "birds of a feather" mailer in House District 144 sparked allegations of racism throughout the blogosphere that were too numerous, obvious and homogeneous to merit links from here. Newsdesk, the Austin Chronicle's blog, says why worry about implicit racism, when the mailer is openly anti-homosexual? A Houston Chronicle's Texas Politics commenter says the mailer was racist when it ran the first time in 2003. And the county seat connects the dots, noticing that the same guy, consultant Allen Blakemore, is responsible for that earlier flier and controversial ads in Senate District 17. More here and here. (And follow these links for our takes on the allegedly racist HD-144 mailer and the SD-17 to do.)

A handful of Republican campaign websites went offline over the weekend, reports Newsdesk. The web designer responsible for them says that was due to a conflict with the host company. The temporary shutdown was unrelated to reports that Republicans have been lifting liberal bloggers' stuff off the Net and using it without permission, but that's interesting, too. The victims: Newsdesk , Capitol Annex and mean rachel .

In Congressional District 22, Annex relays a Democratic spot funded by national committees on GOP candidate Pete Olson, focusing on alleged voting fraud. Half Empty has a response by Democratic incumbent Nick Lampson's campaign to Olson's response. (We wrote about the voter fraud stuff here.)

In CD-10, GOP incumbent Michael McCaul's campaign has finally gotten around to using clips from Democratic opponent Larry Joe Doherty's old television show Texas Justice. The goal is to portray Doherty as "racially insensitive," Texas Politics says.

Out in CD-17, guerilla operatives mar Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards's campaign sign — attempting to link him to his own party, reports The Jackalope's Voice. And Panhandle's Perspective gives a report on yard signage from Florida to Victoria (the hometown of Out There's writer, hurrah!) [eds. note: We have not hired any writers from Florida, so far].

U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock, who's facing Democratic challenger Brian Ruiz, takes advantage of new media to write a post for Williamson Republic. Fellow incumbent U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, meanwhile, talks to Off the Kuff. And CD-4 Democrat Glenn Melancon produces an ad attacking incumbent Republican Ralph Hall and then posts it on Texas Kaos.

From Vaqueros & Wonkeros, the El Paso Times's blog: Republican House candidate Dee Margo sent out a mailer defending himself against attacks by Democrat Joe Moody — attacks that Moody had not yet launched. Moody, however, does have a large sign up in front of El Paso County GOP headquarters (on a property owned by GOP County Commissioner Dan Haggerty, whose brother Rep. Pat Haggerty lost to Margo in March). More Moody media here, including a robo call from Hillary Clinton . Meanwhile, Margo is bribing early voters with donuts.

U.S. Rep. Michael Burgess says he's not the man behind anti-Barack Obama robo calls in north Texas (though he admits the voiceover man does sound like him), says PoliTex, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's blog, while the Houston Chronicle's Texas on the Potomac posts 10 videos featuring CD-10 rivals John Culberson, GOP incumbent, and Michael Skelly, Democratic challenger.

* * * * *

Early and Often

BurkaBlog has a University of Houston professor's observations on the early vote. Some highlights: The Anglo vote is up; the minority vote is way up; and, Democrats might have an edge in early voting thus far.

Burnt Orange Report is updating its Travis County voter turnout projecting model after each day of early voting -- one, two, three, four, five and six. (Their prediction on Sunday was that about 330,000 people in Travis County would vote early.)

Lone Star Times voted "against [Barack] Hussein Obama, Rick Noriega, and racism." Rhetoric & Rhythm's vote canceled out LST's. And Right Side of the Rainbow voted straight-ticket Republican, reluctantly, while Memoirs From a Young Conservative is glad she voted for incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn .

Newsdesk describes an election office mistake affecting 3,000 Williamson County voters, while the campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, says the numbers thus far are looking like "very bad news" for his boss, says Postcards, the Austin American-Statesman's blog.

* * * * *

Shot Calling

Right Side predicts a 10-percentage-point Obama win over McCain nationally, a six-seat pickup by the Dems in the U.S. Senate (55-43-2) and a 26-seat gain by the Dems in the U.S. House (261-174), with Texas Reps picking up one Democratic incumbent's place. Meanwhile, Burka says Obama has checkmated McCain.

Joshua's Political Blog says it's game, set, match in favor of Sen. Cornyn. Pondering Penguin, too, says it looks like Cornyn will win. And Lonnie Walker's Blog says, "At this point, Noriega should understand he's not winning this election and should probably follow his party's defeatist attitude and just give up."

And Letters From Texas is putting his money where other people's mouths are with a guess-how-many-electoral-votes-Obama-gets challenge to determine the "Biggest Baddest Politically Savvy Mo-Fo In Texas." Vote by Halloween or just sit there.

* * * * *

Crime and Punishment

Grits for Breakfast says the closing of the Texas Youth Commission's never-used facility in Eagle Pass is a blow to Senate Criminal Justice chair John Whitmire's plan to regionalize the agency. (Read the comments for an entertaining discussion of the agency's direction, or lack thereof, depending on your perspective.) On a related note, the houston conservative talks to Marc Levin about a report he wrote on "measuring performance in the juvenile justice system."

While he was making thousands of phone calls with a smuggled cell phone, death row inmate Richard Tabler did not bother to ring his attorney, says Tex Parte Blog. Grits answers the question, How do you sneak a cell phone into death row, anyway? (No, it's not the way we were thinking, either.) Regardless of how they got there, "Jam the damn things," Whitmire tells Texas Politics.

And Grits explains how "Counties can save big bucks by eliminating jail time for people who're never charged with a crime."

* * * * *

Random Politickin'

A State Board of Education candidate says her incumbent Republican opponent should be declared ineligible because he hasn't lived in the district he represents "since at least 2000," according to Kaos. Meanwhile, Postcards looks at a couple of presidential primary bundlers who aren't making the effort for the general election.

Potomac has a "closing argument" from Skelly in CD-7, plus overviews of Houston-area congressional races: CD-7, CD-10 and CD-22. And this video via Trail Blazers is the closest you'll get to having BBQ with Gov. Rick Perry, unless you can write a fat check or are friends with someone who can.


This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is semi-settled in Austin. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

Funny things pass the House when people aren't looking. HR 2936 passed near the end of the last legislative session on a voice vote, got signed by the Speaker, and there it sits, with ban on collecting pledges for a speaker candidate and a procedure for electing a speaker with a secret ballot.The resolution, in full:

H.R. No. 2936

R E S O L U T I O N

BE IT RESOLVED by the House of Representatives of the State of Texas, 80th Legislature, That from this date forward, the practice of a speaker collecting from the members of this house written pledges to support the candidacy of that speaker for election as speaker in a future legislature is abolished and prohibited; and

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED That, in accordance with Sections 9(b) and 11, Article III, Texas Constitution, the House of Representatives of the 81st Legislature should elect a speaker of the house from its own membership as follows:

SECTION 1. NOMINATIONS. (a) The secretary of state shall call for nominations from the floor for the election of speaker of the house of representatives and shall recognize every member who desires to make a nomination.

(b) Each member recognized for this purpose shall immediately advance to the front microphone and make the nomination in a nominating speech not to exceed five minutes in length.

(c) After all nominations have been made, the secretary of state shall declare nominations to be closed.

SECTION 2. SECONDS. (a) A person is not considered a nominee unless the nomination is seconded by at least one member.

(b) One seconding speech shall be allowed for each nomination in the order in which nominations were made, then other seconding speeches shall be allowed in rotation in the same order.

(c) No more than five seconding speeches shall be allowed for each nominee.

(d) A seconding speech may not exceed three minutes in length.

SECTION 3. VOTING PROCEDURES. (a) The chief clerk shall prepare paper ballots containing the name of each nominee and a space for indicating that the member is present, not voting. The ballot shall be prepared to allow a member to mark the ballot in a manner that does not disclose the member's identity.

(b) The chief clerk shall designate a voting area for the members to mark their ballots and shall provide a voting box for the marked ballots. Each member shall be called individually by the reading clerk and shall proceed to the voting area when called. As a member arrives at the voting area, the chief clerk shall hand the member the member's ballot and allow the member to privately mark the ballot. After marking the ballot, the member shall fold the ballot and return it to the chief clerk. The chief clerk shall initial each marked ballot and the ballot shall be deposited in the voting box.

(c) After all members have voted, the chief clerk, journal clerk, and voting clerk shall publicly count the ballots on the house floor. A ballot may not be counted unless it bears the chief clerk's initials. The chief clerk shall prepare a tally sheet indicating the total votes received by each nominee and the total number of ballots counted as present, not voting.

(d) A verification of a vote taken consists solely of ensuring that a marked ballot was tallied correctly.

(e) All votes taken shall be by secret ballot and only the results of the election, including the total number of votes cast for each nominee and the number of members present, not voting, shall be entered in the House Journal.

SECTION 4. RESULTS; RUNOFF. (a) The secretary of state shall announce the results of the election. If a nominee receives a majority of the votes cast, the secretary of state shall declare that nominee to be elected to the office of speaker of the house of representatives. For purposes of determining a majority of the votes cast for speaker under this resolution, only a ballot marked for a single nominee is considered a vote cast.

(b) If no nominee receives a majority of the votes cast, the two nominees receiving the largest number of votes in the initial vote shall be in a runoff conducted in accordance with the voting procedures for the initial vote. The secretary of state shall announce the results of the runoff and declare the nominee receiving a majority of the votes cast to be elected.

SECTION 5. TIE VOTES. (a) If in the initial vote no nominee receives a majority of the votes cast and it is not possible to determine the two nominees receiving the largest number of votes cast because of a tie vote, an additional round of voting shall occur among the same nominees, other than a nominee who withdraws. If a nominee receives a majority of the votes cast, the secretary of state shall declare that nominee to be elected to the office of speaker. If no nominee receives a majority of the votes cast, the two nominees who receive the largest number of votes cast shall be in a runoff conducted in the manner provided by Section 4(b) of this resolution.

(b) If in a runoff between two nominees no nominee receives a majority of the votes cast because of a tie vote, an additional round of runoff voting shall occur between the same two nominees.

(c) If the additional round of voting under Subsection (a) or (b) fails to resolve the tie vote, the secretary of state shall again call for nominations from the floor for the election of speaker and proceed with the election of a speaker in the manner provided by this resolution from among the new nominees.

SECTION 6. OATH. (a) After the election, the secretary of state shall direct the administration of the oath of office to the speaker-elect. The speaker shall take the chair immediately after taking the oath of office.

(b) After the speaker takes the oath of office, the chief clerk shall destroy all paper ballots used in the election of the speaker.

Merritt

Harless

He might be gravely ill, but Dallas lawyer Fred Baron gave nearly $1.5 million to the Texas Democratic Trust on October 7, leading the (incomplete) list of contributors to Texas campaigns and committees in the latest finance reports.

Those reports, due this week, aren't all in, and not all of them are online; in fact, what's available and newsworthy so far is mostly from the left. Baron's contribution is by far the largest reported so far for the period between September 25 and this past weekend. Campaigns have to file these "8-day reports" the week before the election; after that, they have to report contributions, but not expenditures, for the last week. The final accounting won't be public until January, when all candidates and officeholders have to file reports on their political finances.

Baron made two contributions to that PAC, one of $1,471,000 on October 7, and another of $26,000 on October 22. Only two others gave during the month to the TDT: David Mincberg of Houston gave $300,000 and Aimee Boone of Austin — the Texas Democratic Party's finance director — gave $50,000. The PAC spent $2.1 million during the month, including a $300,000 contribution to Houston's First Tuesday PAC (four days after the contribution from Mincberg, who's running for Harris County judge). The PAC gave $170,675 to the House Democratic Campaign Committee.

The Trust, which has been the largest funder of the Texas Democratic Party for the last few years, won't lose that reputation soon: It gave the party several contributions totaling $1,502,759 (The party's 8-day report wasn't immediately available).

• The Texas Parent PAC, targeted at public schools in general and at opponents of publicly funded vouchers for private schools in particular, raised $404,428 ($390,000 of that from Charles Butt of San Antonio) and spent $425,074 during the month. That group's report lists ten candidates it supports, all Democrats.

• The Blue Texas PAC didn't bring much in during the month, but that relatively new committee spent $445,025 on Democratic candidates for the House (roughly what it spent in the last report).

Candidates are still raising money, with just days to go; these contributions will be in the telegram reports filed between now and the election.Click to get the whole thing, but the hosts are Louis Beecherl and Harold Simmons of Dallas. The guest star is Gov. Rick Perry. And the beneficiaries are Republicans challenging incumbent Democrats in four House races: Isaac Castro of Hamlin, Kirby Hollingsworth of Mount Vernon, Brian Walker of Tatum, and Karen Wiegman of Grand Prairie. They're challenging, in order: Joe Heflin of Crosbyton, Mark Homer of Paris, Chuck Hopson of Jacksonville, and Kirk England of Grand Prairie.

Texas House Democrats say they spent $1 million from July to now on incumbents and challengers in a year when the donkeys have (so far) been financially competitive with the elephants in House contests.In a self-congratulatory letter to their fellows, the leaders of the House Democratic Campaign Committee say that amount doesn't count what they spent in the primaries or what they've spent on support staff.

The executive director of the Texas Lottery died today after a long illness.Anthony Sadberry was appointed to the Texas Lottery Commission in 1993 by then-Gov. Ann Richards and served until 2001 (including a stint as chairman). He returned as the lottery's executive director in 2006. He was an attorney in the Houston offices of New York City-based Epstein, Becker and Green

That's the number of registered voters in Texas, according to Secretary of State Hope Andrade, up from 12.7 million in the primaries and 13.1 million in the general election two years ago (and in the 2004 general election).Voter turnout in 2004 — the last presidential election — was 56.6 percent. If you extrapolate that to this year's registration numbers, about 7.6 million Texans will vote this year. Caution: That's not a number from the SOS; they'll make their turnout projections sometime between now and Tuesday. Through the close of voting on Monday, more than 2 million Texans had voted in the state's top 14 counties.

Republicans and Democrats poured millions into state races during the last 30 days, including nearly $10 million into Texas House contests.

Rep. Jim Keffer says he'll start briefing the press on the race for Speaker of the Texas House an hour after the polls close on Election Night, and he's not getting ready for another term for House Speaker Tom Craddick.Here's the press release he put out late this afternoon:

Jim Keffer Announces Election Night Countdown For New Texas House Speaker

Keffer has traveled state extensively the past year meeting with House members and candidates Austin, Texas, Wednesday, October 29, 2008---- "The times they are a-changing," announced State Representative Jim Keffer (R-Eastland). "Within 24 hours of the polls closing after Tuesday's historic election, I predict there will be a new consensus choice for Texas House Speaker." Keffer said he plans to consolidate his Republican and Democratic support for Texas House Speaker on election night, Tuesday, November 4th. "I will begin updating the press beginning at 8:00 p.m. on election night," said Keffer. Keffer has extensively traveled the state this past year meeting with House members and state house candidates, often times spending the night with them in their homes. After meeting with House members in their districts, Keffer said he is "100% sure a new Speaker for the Texas House of Representatives will be chosen for next session." According to Keffer, "regardless of how the Republican and Democrat numbers change in the Texas House, there is a majority desire for a new Speaker." "The sentiment for change is not personal, members in the Texas House just want bipartisan leadership which is committed to restoring the rules of conduct and fairness" Keffer stated. "Those who served last session remember all too well the four months of absolute chaos that preceded Craddick's last minute claim of absolute authority." "The issues and challenges before Texas are all too serious to repeat this chaotic journey again." Keffer said he has offered one important promise to his House colleagues, "I will be a Speaker for the members, not the special interests." Keffer said he also supports a three term limit on the Speaker's post and strongly favors returning to House rules on seniority to insure fairness in committee appointments. "When I came to Austin, there was an orderly process to the House ," Keffer said. "Its time to "heed the call" and put our state House back together."

John McCain leads Barack Obama and John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega in a fresh poll of state voters by the Texas Politics Project and Department of Government at The University of Texas at Austin.

They've got the Republican leading the presidential race 51 percent to 40 percent, and the incumbent Republican leading the race for U.S. Senate 45 percent to 36 percent.

Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate for president, has the support of 1.5 percent of those surveyed. Yvonne Adams-Schick, the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate, had 5 percent.

Some high points:

• In a hypothetical matchup, the Texas respondents said they'd vote for Republican Sarah Palin for president (51 percent) over Democrat Joe Biden (43 percent).

• President George W. Bush's approval rating in Texas, according to this survey, is 36 percent. Gov. Rick Perry's is 38 percent. But their negative ratings varied more, with 50 percent having a negative view of the president and 39 percent having a negative view of the governor.

• More than a fifth — 23 percent — think Obama is a Muslim, while 46 percent identified him correctly as a Protestant.

• The poll used "feeling thermometers" to measure voter responses to various state and national figures; U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison got the highest score there, ahead of the president, the presidential and Senate candidates, and the top three state officials.

• Three-fourths of those surveyed disapprove of Congress' handling of the economy and energy.

The survey was done on the Internet during October 15-22. It included 550 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent. Details of this and a previous poll in July are on their website.

Republicans and Democrats are sparring over a GOP mailing that published the Democratic candidate's Social Security Number. The piece came from the GOP on behalf of Tim Kleinschmidt, who's challenging Democrat Donnie Dippel for the seat left open by Robby Cook, D-Eagle Lake.

The mailer attacks Dippel for having filed for bankruptcy 19 years ago. It's covered with tax information for both Dippel and his wife — and includes Social Security numbers. Although someone tried to black them out, the Dippel campaign says if you hold the mailer to a light, you can see both numbers easily. Dippel might or might not have a legal case since there was an attempt to hide the numbers. But the political case is open: the Democrats say it's a no-no.

(History lesson: Something similar happened during this year's GOP primary in Pasadena's HD-144. Ken Legler, the eventual victor, sent a mail piece attacking his opponent Fred Roberts. It included Roberts' Social Security number, and he apparently filed a police report and enrolled in an identity protection program.)

"It's impossible not to see that," says Hector Nieto, spokesman for the Texas Democratic Party. "For them to say that this was just a mistake or an accident is just a little misleading. It's just wrong, putting a candidate and his family in danger of being a victim of a crime. It shows a new tactic, a new low in the Republican Party."

"With graphics like that, a black marker won't cover it up," says Jeff Crosby, Dippel's consultant. "It's easy to get rid of them, you just go in and Photoshop them."

The GOP, which paid for the mailer on Kleinschmidt's behalf, isn't worried.

"I'm holding it up to all kinds of light," says Hans Klingler, spokesman for the Texas GOP and architect of the mail piece, "and I don't see it."

Klingler says the real issue is that when Dippel filed for bankruptcy, he left taxpayers and creditors with the burden.

"This was to alert the voters to know that this individual wants to make decisions with hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money, which as a lobbyist he knows about, when he has a checkered taxpayer history," he says.

Dippel's version: He was building a house, and before it was finished, the builder split and took the cash. Wanting to avoid foreclosure, Dippel filed for bankruptcy. He eventually finished the house, which is in La Grange, and lives there now with his family.

But the Kleinschmidt campaign, though consultant Eric Bearse, says there's more to it. According to their research, Dippel was in debt from his mortgage, and when the bank sued him to collect, Dippel countersued on the grounds that the builder wasn't finished — but he lost and that's when he filed for bankruptcy.

Bearse says the claims should help his client.

"Certainly a lot of people have been thru difficult financial times," he says, "but those people aren't asking voters to elect them to the Texas House and watch over their tax dollars. This is something that voters need to know. He mismanaged his own money and now he's asking him to let him mismanage their money."

Crosby admits his client's long-ago bankruptcy might have some resonance with voters.

"But when voters are told it was 19 years ago, and they hear the story... it seems like a low, dirty shock from Kleinschmidt."

Another Kleinschmidt mailer caused some groans last week. Democratic blogger Rachel Farris of mean rachel was livid when she saw that Kleinschmidt used her photos of Dippel on a mailer without permission. She took the photo at a rally for Dippel, CD-10 candidate Larry Joe Doherty and Bastrop County judicial candidate Chris Duggan. The Kleinschmidt camp sent a mailer aligning Dippel with Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, with the photo of Dippel posing by Farris's Obama plates. Although her blog has a copyright disclaimer, a lawyer told Farris the mailer is considered "fair use" because it doesn't serve a commercial purpose.

"The people who produce the mail piece are making money," argues Farris, who laments that she doesn't really have time or money to do much more about it than post a complaint on her blog.

The kicker? Take another look at the bankruptcy mail piece — it's Farris' photo, with the car and the sign cropped out.

—by Karie Meltzer
Fred Baron, one of the nation's most successful trial lawyers and more recently, the biggest single financier of Democratic politics in Texas, died this afternoon. He was 61.Baron had been battling cancer with the help of experimental drug treatments. He founded the Baron and Budd law firm, amassing a fortune winning asbestos and other toxic tort cases. And in the last few years, he put up millions to jump-start the moribund Texas Democratic Party, funding research, candidates and party-building efforts that, among other things, have helped Democrats bring the Texas House close to party parity. He was also the national finance chairman for presidential candidate John Edwards and made headlines this summer when he admitted sending money to Edwards' former mistress to help relocate her to California. Details on services aren't yet available, but family and friends are planning to hold a memorial Monday in Dallas.

You'll find some policy and some politics in Gov. Rick Perry's speech last week to the Texas Taxpayers and Research Association.

Policy? What he's thinking about the state budget (he's no longer talking about a rebate to state taxpayers, but about the "two significant storms," i.e., Hurricane Ike and whatever you want to call Wall Street's mess), property appraisal reform, the state's business climate ("If you're a business person and you're staying in California, it's for some reason other than your bottom line"), and budget transparency.

Politics? His speech — you can see this in the first minutes of the video, now on his website — started with effusive praise for Democrat John Sharp, a potential candidate for U.S. Senate if and when Kay Bailey Hutchison gives up her post. (They were friends in college and beyond. They ran against each other in a tough race for Lite Guv in 1998. They made up and Sharp helped Perry pass the margins tax bill in 2006.)

The conventional wisdom in Austin, if you can call it that, is that Hutchison will quit early to run against Perry for governor and that she might resign before next summer. If that happens, Perry will appoint her replacement and call a special election. And Perry's appointee would have to run against a pack that includes Sharp, who's now got a video of the Guv's high praise, should he need it.

The dollars in Texas political races tell you what the moneyed folk are interested in: They're interested in the Texas House.

Lookit: Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, a Republican, raised more than any other statewide official outside of the race for U.S. Senate. In his most recent report, his donors gave him $200,307. Do a quick back-of-the-envelope count on legislative races and you'll find at least two dozen where either the Democrat or the Republican or both brought in more money than that. Three Republican House candidates — Rep. Bill Zedler of Arlington and open-seat candidates Bryan Daniel of Georgetown and Tim Kleinschmidt of Lexington — each pulled in more than $500,000 in the last 30 days. Together, they brought in $1.7 million in October.

Not to take anything away from anyone, but that's not really about Daniel, Kleinschmidt, and Zedler. What's at stake is control of the House. Republicans have 79 seats now (including two open seats where Republicans resigned) to the Democrats' 71. Flip four seats and you've got a tie (and a treat for political pinheads). Flip five and it's a Democratic House. Flip one or two or three, and you've probably got a contested race for Speaker of the House.

So it's only fitting that the biggest single political donor on the Republican side in October was House Speaker Tom Craddick, who'd like to keep that position for another two years.

In 21 House races we're tracking, the candidates raised a total of $9.4 million, spent a total of $7.6 million, and had $3.5 million left to play with during the remaining week of the campaign. If you didn't have your calculator handy, that's an average of $449,178 in contributions, $362,838 in spending, and $169,689 on hand.

That turns into mail and broadcast advertising, consultants, getting out the vote. And if you look through the charts, you'll see what races the political financiers decided were in need of late money and which ones weren't, either because the contestants are duds or because one side or another has put the race away.

The race for speaker is well under way, with Republicans talking about who might succeed Craddick and Democrats talking about that, and about which of them might win the corner office if there's an earthquake on Tuesday and the Republicans are no longer running the House.

Some possible plot lines:

• Republicans hold steady or pick up seats on Tuesday. Craddick probably wins reelection.

• Republicans loose a couple of seats but retain partisan control of the House. Craddick would be in trouble, and he's got two groups breathing on him. The first is known in Austin as the ABCs, for Anybody But Craddick. The second group includes Republicans who'd like a change in management but don't want to reveal themselves until they're sure it's going to happen. A candidate from the first group would get his or her fellow ABCs and most of the Democrats in the House, who also seek Craddick's defeat. A candidate from the second group would argue that a Republican speaker should have a majority of the House's Republicans and not just renegades who've cut a deal with the other party.

• Tie, with 75 Republicans and 75 Democrats. Craddick's out, and it's time for a coalition candidate who can get enough Democrats and Republicans to get a majority. Outsiders will be looking at party affiliations; House members will be looking at their relationships, trying to figure out which new speaker would give each of them the best deal, whether it be a chairmanship, a great office, parking space or whatever.

• Democrats win a net of five or more seats. The Republicans are all out of the running and the Democrats have to work their funky math. This time, the two groups are the Craddick D's — Democrats who've been supporters and lieutenants of the current speaker — and Democrats who've been chafing since he won the job in 2003. And the questions are similar to those in a narrowly Republican House: Do you get a Democratic speaker elected mostly by Democrats, mostly by Republicans, or with a more even mix.

The potential challengers on both sides are apparently playing nice, staying in contact and trying to ignore outside noise from lobbyists, reporters, and other pests. An effort to knock off Craddick two years ago failed, in part, because his opponents couldn't settle on a challenger (and in part because he outmaneuvered everyone else). There are a handful of real and potential candidates on the Republican side (Byron Cook of Corsicana, Dan Gattis of Georgetown, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, Jim Keffer of Eastland, Edmund Kuempel of Seguin, Jim Pitts of Waxahachie) and more on the Democratic side (Craig Eiland of Galveston, Pete Gallego of Alpine, Scott Hochberg of Houston, Richard Raymond of Laredo, Allan Ritter of Nederland, Senfronia Thompson of Houston, Sylvester Turner of Houston). Once they know Tuesday's results, they might keep singing "Kumbaya." Or this could look like one of those water polo matches in the Summer Olympics that ended with blood in the water.

What you're about to read is probably bunk.Early vote in top 15 counties, 2004: 2,412,952 Early vote in all 254 counties, 2004: 3,779,124 Total early vote attributable to top 15 counties: 63.85% Early vote, so far this year, in top 15 counties: 3,117,005 Early vote in all counties, so far this year, if the ratio from 2004 holds: 4,881,800 Total vote, 2004: 7,410,749 Early vote as a percentage of total vote, 2004: 50.99 Total vote, this year, if the early/late ratio from 2004 holds: 9,573,065 Difference, 2004 to 2008, if all that holds: 2,164,316 votes Difference, 2004 to 2008, if if if: 29.18 percent Source for real numbers: Texas Secretary of State Source for extrapolations: Calculator, legal pad

Some legislative Democrats want their party caucus to choose the next speaker of the House if Democrats take over in Tuesday's elections.

It would take a particularly good night for that to happen: Democrats would have to win a net five seats to win a majority. But they're confident they'll pick up some seats (yes, some Republicans are confident in the other direction), and they're floating a blueprint for voting as a caucus for the next speaker.

A "draft" of the rules, signed by Reps. Rafael Anchia of Dallas and Joaquin Castro of San Antonio, asks the Democratic speaker candidates to abide by the vote of the caucus on the day after the election.

If Democrats take the House, they want the candidates to show up for that vote (or series of votes) and for the caucus to emerge united behind one candidate. If the Republicans win, they want the caucus to stick together on that vote, too.

We have no idea whether the House Democrats will sign off on this — until it's done, they don't either — but it's the proposal du jour. They plan to meet Wednesday afternoon, after they know how what the state's voters have done.

They're trying, apparently, to keep the Democrats from cutting each other to pieces in a fight for control over the House. There are nearly a dozen Democrats and Republicans openly coveting the title — not including Speaker Tom Craddick, who wants it back — and the battle after the election could be a noisy and politically bloody one.

If the other Democrats go along, it also slams the door on any Democrat — no, we don't have a name in mind — whose victory depends on a coalition that has more Republicans in it than Democrats. If the Democrats win, one strategy for a conservative Democrat would be to take a bloc of 20 conservative Democrats to the Republican caucus and appeal to them as the least liberal ticket possible in a Democratic House. The Anchia-Castro plan would prevent that, if all of the Democrats agree to abide by the caucus vote. The Republicans, in that case, would have to eat whatever dish the Democrats are serving.

In a House controlled by Republicans, it would force GOP members to either stick with a candidate elected in their own caucus — that's likely to be Craddick — or to come up with a candidate who can win a majority of the votes in the Democratic caucus while bringing along a group of more than a dozen Republicans.

The Democratic bloc idea could force Republicans to consider the same thing, a move that would force the so-called ABC Republicans — Anybody But Craddick — to fight or flee. And it could force middlers on both sides — moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats — into a bloc of their own, devoted to the idea of electing a speaker from the middle instead of from one of the two parties, like it's done in Washington.

Our current list of real and potential candidates includes: Republicans Byron Cook of Corsicana, Dan Gattis of Georgetown, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, Jim Keffer of Eastland, Edmund Kuempel of Seguin, Jim Pitts of Waxahachie, and Burt Solomons of Carrollton, and Democrats Craig Eiland of Galveston, Pete Gallego of Alpine, Scott Hochberg of Houston, Richard Raymond of Laredo, Allan Ritter of Nederland, Senfronia Thompson of Houston, and Sylvester Turner of Houston.

Here's a copy of the Anchia/Castro letter:

October 31, 2008

Dear House Colleagues:

As we prepare for Election Day, we wanted to share a few thoughts with you. While primary focus this week must remain on winning our respective races—as members of the House Democratic Caucus we must also prepare for the very real possibility that Democrats may win a majority in the Texas House of Representatives. We owe it to each other and to the State of Texas to be prepared. With a majority, Democrats will carry the honor and responsibility of effectively governing the lower chamber. Among our first acts as we open the 81st Legislative Session on January 13, 2008, will be to elect a Speaker of the House.

Historically, Speaker races have been divisive affairs, characterized by secret negotiations, pledge cards and special interest interference. Like you, we believe that we can do better. First, it is critically important that we develop an open, transparent and orderly process for selecting leadership of the Texas House. Second, we must ensure that suspicion, rumor and innuendo not undermine our solidarity and trust as a Democratic Caucus. If we allow outside special interests to divide us, we will fail to deliver positive and meaningful change for the people we represent. Finally, we should adopt a process by which our Republican colleagues feel honored, respected and included.

In that spirit, we offer the following proposal to keep us united and focused so that we may move Texas in the right direction. The process proposed below should be viewed as a vital first step in fulfilling Article III, Section 8 of the Bylaws of the House Democratic Caucus which reads as follows:

"Section 8. Speaker Races: Before each regular session of the Legislature or at any other time when a vacancy in the office of Speaker of the House of Representatives occurs, the Democratic Caucus shall nominate one of its members for election as Speaker of the House."

We begin by asking that you refrain from signing pledge cards for specific Democratic candidates and instead sign on to this Democratic Caucus Pledge. The validity of this Democratic Caucus Pledge is contingent upon Democrats winning at least 75 seats during the upcoming elections.

As a signatory to the Democratic Caucus Pledge, you agree to:

1) Support a Democrat for Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives. In the event that Democrats win less than 75 seats, Republican candidates for Speaker will also be invited to solicit support from the Democratic Caucus pursuant to the process set forth below.

2) Participate in a Democratic Caucus meeting scheduled by the Democratic Caucus Chair on Wednesday, November 5, 2008 at 2:00pm (the "Caucus Meeting") to begin the process of choosing a Democrat for Speaker of the House. If unable to attend for whatever reason, you agree to issue a written proxy to another Democratic Caucus colleague to vote (discussed below) on your behalf. This proxy should be recorded with the Chair of the House Democratic Caucus at least one hour prior to the Caucus Meeting.

3) Hear presentations from all of the Democratic candidates that have filed papers declaring their candidacy for Speaker prior to the Democratic Caucus meeting.

4) Participate in a Democratic Caucus straw poll to help choose a Democrat for Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives. The method of straw poll voting shall be agreed upon in advance by a majority of the Democratic Speaker candidates and approved by the membership at the Caucus Meeting. The voting system may include successive straw poll voting rounds to arrive broad consensus among the Democratic Caucus.

5) Vote a private ballot in the straw poll that will be counted by a group of three disinterested and respected Democrats.

6) Remain present in the Caucus Meeting room until the vote is taken and tabulated and a winner is announced.

7) Emerge united and prepared to work toward electing a Democratic Speaker.

It is our hope that Democratic Speaker Candidates receiving the fewest votes during each round of voting would agree in advance to withdraw their candidacies. Whether or not the straw poll will be binding is something open for discussion. However, we believe that the straw poll will coalesce the Democratic Caucus around the best candidates able to build a robust governing majority with our Republican colleagues. A Democratic Speaker straw poll winner will be expected to reach out to and work with Republican legislators. The history of Democrats and Republicans sharing important legislative duties and working together toward a better for future for Texas must be respected and preserved.

We are in an exciting moment. We believe that next week the people of Texas will vote to change the business-as-usual politics that has kept our state from reaching its full potential. Entrusted with their confidence, we must change the business-as-usual politics in the Texas House of Representatives that has kept us from reaching our potential. We hope you will join us in that effort.

Please accept this draft proposal as a starting point for our conversation about how we can work toward electing a Democratic Speaker for the 81st Legislative Session should we have a majority. We expect inquiries from the media with respect to this draft and will emphasize with them our desire for an open, transparent and orderly process. We especially want to hear from you and ask that you forward your opinions, comments and suggestions to Jeff Rotkoff at the House Democratic Campaign Committee at jeff@texashdcc.com.

Sincerely,

Rafael Anchia State Representative – District 103 Dallas

Joaquin Castro State Representative – District 125 San Antonio

Candidate Austen Furse, consultant Allen Blakemore, and the Best of Texas PAC can't use a group of websites to antagonize Republican Joan Huffman, and have to stop using mail and email to drive traffic to those sites, a Houston judge ordered Friday.

Furse and Huffman, both Republicans, are among the six candidates running for the open SD-17 seat in the Texas Senate. It's a special election, so there will be a primary, so finishing second is worth something as long as the first place candidate doesn't exceed 50 percent of the vote.

The Houston Chronicle has a write-up, and a copy of the temporary restraining order is attached below.

Political People and their Moves

Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale, R-Tomball, is going to work for the Associated General Contractors-Texas Branch next week. Van Arsdale, who lost the Republican primary to Allen Fletcher in March, will be AGC's vice president and general counsel.

Gov. Rick Perry named Dr. George Willeford III, founding partner of Austin Gastroenterology, to the Texas Medical Board.

And the Guv named Rolando Pablos, a San Antonio attorney, as presiding officer of the Texas Racing Commission.

Quotes of the Week

Goolsby, Eiland, Lucio, and Washburn

Rep. Tony Goolsby, R-Dallas, asked by the Associated Press for details of an expensive taxpayer-funded renovation of the Texas House member's lounge: "I'm up to my ass in a damn campaign. This is the only job I've got and I'm trying to save it. Obama's got people coming from the rafters."

Rep. Craig Eiland, D-Galveston, quoted by The Dallas Morning News on the election prospects: "Everybody's excited, and the number one goal is to get a new speaker. The number two goal is to get a new speaker, and the number three goal is to get a new speaker. So all everybody has to remember is goal number one."

Sen. Eddie Lucio, D-Brownsville, on rumors that he might run for comptroller in 2010: "Right now, I'm just preparing myself for the next session. But people have asked me if I'm interested in running and I'm not ruling it out. There's no exploratory committee or anything like that. But my son [Rep. Eddie Lucio III] must have heard something about it and he said, 'Dad, if you're thinking about moving up or retiring, I sure hope you let me know, give me a heads-up.' I said, 'Hold on, son. I've still got some miles to go.'"

Lori Washburn, the wife of John Washburn, who won a James Madison award from the Freedom of Information Foundation of Texas for trying to stop Gov. Rick Perry's weekly destruction of government emails, in the Austin American-Statesman: "Activists are easy to admire, but they're very difficult to live with."