If you're not under pressure, the House is sort of an interesting Petri dish right now.

Every major bill seems to split the pols in a different way and that might explain why they seem so laid back in the face of so many approaching deadlines: Their coalitions change on every major bill, and some of the normal animosities are set aside for the bargaining that's going on with each new issue.

Voter ID is a classic fight, breaking along party lines.

Transportation bills coming up next week have more to do with who's getting projects and who's not, who's mad and whether they're mad about traffic or tolls or Trans Texas Corridors, political anger and worries over taxes. It's a real dog's breakfast, mixing the disparate interests of cities and suburbs and rural areas.

Bailing out the coastal insurance pool — officially, the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association — depends on how far you are from the coast and how much rates might rise.

It changes with every issue.

If you are under pressure — that is, you are trying to get something done or undone — this is a difficult group to read. When the coalitions are fixed along party lines or behind a particular leader, strategy is easier. Talk to the honchos on the side that's in charge, cut your deal, light your cigar. But this House, with its shifting majorities and a relatively small sample of votes to guide strategists, is different. Interesting, even — if you're not under pressure.

Familiar Patterns

The pace has normalized a bit, with the House accelerating in the last week and a number of major bills starting to come to the floor.

They're touting statistics that show that the number of bills they've passed isn't all that different from previous years, in spite of all the talk of the slow pace. They're not comparing the number of minor and major bills, but that's another argument. And the major bills are here.

On the eastern end of the Pink Building, the Senate has done it again, sending a disproportionate number of major bills to the other body. Early in the session, the upper chamber likes to boast of its steadier, faster pace. More bills go from the Senate to the House than in the other direction. And about this time every two years, you start to hear worried senators talk about the hostages they've sent to the suddenly overworked House. That doesn't necessarily give the House the upper hand, but it's good for some bargaining power.

The end-of-session deadlines, as we've pointed out, start to fall in about 10 days. And there's one month left before the players leave the field.

Road House

Texas transportation reform is currently parked in the House, but members could be ready to move on Texas Department of Transportation sunset and local transportation options funding as soon as next week.

Sticking points during the debate could be malice toward TxDOT (and to the governor, and the Trans Texas Corridor, and toll roads) and aversion to taxes.

On Tuesday, the House Transportation committee voted out HB 300 by House Sunset Chairman Carl Isett, R-Lubbock, who says he's trying to keep the subject on the agency and how it works and not on policy, which he says ought to be addressed in other legislation. Transportation Chairman Joe Pickett, R-El Paso, D-El Paso, gives the sunset bill high marks, saying it focuses on empowering metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and includes detailed guidance on how the agency should operate over the next decade.

But he expects the bill to generate a lot of heat on the House floor. "It's going to be very contentious. A lot of amendments will be brought up to the bill, because there is a lot of ill will and distrust toward the agency," Pickett says. Amendments could include toll road limitations and changes to the Texas Transportation Commission, TxDOT's governing board, he says.

Senate Sunset chair Glenn Hegar, R-Katy, hopes to have his version, SB 1019, ready by next week, too, but has it on hold. "I'm trying to wait on the House bill. However, if the House bill doesn't move in kind of a quick fashion, then I would like to bring the Senate bill up and send it over here in another week or so, at least as a backup," he says.

Hegar wants to increase transparency of TxDOT with regard to current and future projects, require detailed short- and long-term plans, and ensure that TxDOT takes its cues from local entities instead of dictating from the state level. The bill would shorten the terms of transportation commissioners from four to two years, forcing them to appear before legislators each session. It also provides for a legislative oversight committee "to go out and do a real audit to determine if any more reconstruction of TxDOT is necessary," Hegar says.

The bill changes the makeup of TxDOT administration to ensure that a "CFO type" is on equal footing with a "CEO type" but does not touch the makeup of the TTC governing board.

"That's off the table. We don't have to address that whatsoever," he says.

The House version, similarly, would have TxDOT's administration led by CEO and CFO consuls, says Pickett. He adds that if local MPOs have actual control over projects, then it doesn't matter whether the agency is run by elected commissioners or an appointed czar.

Allowing Texans to raise transportation funds locally will hit the House fan at about the same time. The basic idea is to allow local voters to raise local motor fuels taxes, vehicle registration fees, etc., to pay for local projects.

"The philosophy behind it is the Legislature has been unwilling for over a decade now to adequately fund transportation, and so is the federal government," says former House Transportation chair Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock. "There are no signs they are about to step up to the plate to fund it. So local regions simply want the ability to help themselves."

There is, however, a However, according to Krusee: "Legislators are afraid to vote for anything that could be perceived to be a tax increase, even if it is a local option one that's voted on."

Krusee says he was never able to get his major funding bills over that hurdle, but he thinks Sen. John Carona, the Dallas Republican who's carrying the ball now "is making as good an effort as I've seen."

The Senate passed Carona's SB 855, and its corresponding constitutional amendment, SJR 52 by Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth. Both of those are sitting in Pickett's committee, which has already held hearings on House versions by Rep. Vicki Truitt, R-Keller. Pickett's committee could vote those out before the weekend is over, he says.

If the votes break along party lines, the constitutional amendment will have trouble in the evenly divided House. Hegar, who spent the 2003 and 2005 sessions as a representative, was one of nine Senators to vote against both the Senate bills. He says he doesn't have much insight on what his former colleagues will do.

Even if they become law, local funding options aren't a panacea for Texas' transportation ills, Krusee cautions. "First of all, the elected officials have to put it on the ballot. Then the locals have to vote for it. And lastly, it still won't be enough money to do everything that's necessary," he says.

Straight, No Chaser

The Voter ID draft floating around the House will change before the House sees an official version, according to the author.

Rep. Todd Smith, R-Euless, isn't saying — to us, anyhow — what the changes will be. At last word, he was hoping to try to vote the bill out of his Elections Committee and on to the full House as early as next week.

The first trick is to get six votes on his committee; the second, to get a majority from on the floor. All but five of the House's 76 Republicans have signed a letter spelling out what they want and don't want in a Voter ID bill. The rub at the moment is that some of what's in the current version is also on that letter's list of taboos.

Quoting from their statement:

"Our principles concerning what the bill must contain are clear, this bill must:

• Ensure a valid photo identification is needed to vote


• Take effect at the next possible uniform election date


• Be free of any registration requirements such as same day voter registration that dilutes the intent of the bill, which is ensuring fair and accurate elections.


• Increase criminal penalties for voter fraud and registration

We are all strongly encouraging Chairman Todd Smith and the other Representatives on the Elections Committee to present a bill which protects the integrity of the electoral process, is fully implemented at the next possible uniform election date and ensures a reasonable period of advanced registration to allow voter registrars the time to protect the integrity of the registration process as well."

The GOP put out a list that includes the signatures of everyone but Speaker Joe Straus, Reps. Dennis Bonnen of Angleton, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, Tommy Merritt of Longview, and Smith. They didn't ask Straus, they said, in deference to his position. They included a statement from Bonnen, who said he's on the Elections Committee and is trying to get a bill out instead of killing it there, and that he's really for Voter ID and filed a bill showing his stripes earlier in the session. That leaves Smith, who's trying to do the same thing and to whom the GOP message is addressed, and Merritt and Jones, who both voted against Voter ID legislation when it came up two years ago.

Specifically, Smith's draft version wouldn't take effect until 2013 — after the next two election cycles. The Republicans want immediate changes.

Smith's version includes training for election officials and for voters, and creates criminal penalties for preventing a legal voter from voting in an election. The Secretary of State would have to report to the Legislature annually on any voting violations that year.

And the draft would require photo IDs, but would let voters who don't have those IDs to instead use two documents from an approved list that includes voter registration cards, recent utility bills, recent bank statements, official mail from government entities, birth certificates, marriage licenses and divorce decrees, citizenship papers, adoption, name and sex change papers, Social Security cards and similar government IDs, temporary licenses, library cards, and hunting or fishing licenses. Or they could vote provisionally using their signature, and a panel would later determine if those signature votes match signatures on the lists of registered voters.

The Republicans, in their letter, indicate they want no alternatives to photographic identification.

MUD in Your Eye

The federal Voting Rights Act was challenged in the U.S. Supreme Court, where justices heard arguments in a case that started in Austin this week, and their ruling later this year could affect everything from Voter ID to redistricting.

The transcript of the oral arguments is available online. And our original story on the North Austin Municipal Utility District Number One case is available here.

At issue is whether that MUD should have had federal approval before it moved a polling place or should have been allowed to "bail out" — that's a term of art. VRA requires Texas and other states with histories of racial discrimination to get federal approval of changes made to voting procedures.

Depending on what the court rules, and when, that could come into play on Voter ID this year and on redistricting in 2011. Under current law (and the court's historical reading of it), changes to the voting laws and to the political maps in Texas require approval from the U.S. Department of Justice. If the court declares that provision unconstitutional, what's decided in Texas might stand without that federal sign-off.

Things in Motion

The state's budgeteers — the five representatives and five senators (and "alternates" who are sitting in without voting power) will start meeting formally next week to reconcile the House and Senate versions of the budget (they met this week, said howdy, asked the staff to bone up, and left). The Legislative Budget Board has a summary of the differences online; if you want to go into ghastly detail, you've got about 1,808 pages of reading ahead. The bills differ by $4.8 billion.

The Senate spent more on Medicaid growth, community-based services and waivers, incentive pay for teachers, higher education incentive funds, community colleges, prison guards, inmate healthcare, the governor's office, and debt service on bonds.

The House has more money in community mental health, eligibility services at the Health and Human Services Commission, science lab grants, Texas Grants, higher education formula funds (and health related formula funds), residential services at the Texas Youth Commission, grants for colonias and rural water projects, $15 million to end bad debts at the Texas Agricultural Finance Authority, oil storage tank cleanup, and bonuses for retired and current state employees and retired teachers.

And the LBB write-up includes a list of things that could affect the numbers, including changes to the business tax, school finance, Pre-K legislation, CHIP, Tier 1 universities, healthcare, and state schools.

The budgeteers from the lower chamber are Republicans Jim Pitts of Waxahachie, John Otto of Dayton, John Zerwas of Houston; and Democrats Ruth Jones McClendon of San Antonio, and Richard Raymond of Laredo. The Senators in that parley were named last week: Republicans Steve Ogden of Bryan, Florence Shapiro of Plano, and Tommy Williams of The Woodlands, and Democrats Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa of McAllen and Royce West of Dallas.

Waco Democrat Jim Dunnam got the House to require its conferees to meet with the Senate only in public, posted meetings.

• The Senate and the House both approved bills that attempt to change accountability in public schools while taking some of the pressure off of TAKS tests. They'll have to hammer out a number of differences. A weird example: The House included an amendment that allows students with good marks to ignore rules governing how long they can wear their hair. Honest. The general idea is to replace the current battery of standardized tests with end-of-course exams that are supposed to make sure students are ready for post-secondary education. Rep. Rob Eissler, R-The Woodlands — the House sponsor — says Texas currently ranks 38th in that measurement.

• The Unemployment Insurance bill passed earlier by the Senate — in defiance of Gov. Rick Perry's wishes — is on its way to the full House (or, at least, has made it to the Calendars Committee, which can also be a final destination for legislation). The Business & Industry Committee — which has a Republican majority — voted it out. By the way, the Alaska legislature pushed Gov. Sarah Palin to go along. She, like Perry, didn't want to take the money. But Alaska will take the money.

• A House committee approved an expanded Pre-Kindergarten program that has more than 100 sponsors but also sports a $300 million fiscal note. That's on the way to Calendars.

• Legislation needed to create new flagship universities in the state is out of the Senate on the way to the House. It doesn't pick favorites, but sets out the standards and lets the schools run the race. The University of Texas and Texas A&M University are already top-tier public universities (Rice University is a private Tier 1). Others — Texas Tech, University of Houston, University of Dallas, etc., etc. — want to be. That'll meet a companion bill somewhere in the middle of the Capitol Rotunda; the House passed a similar bill a few days earlier.

• The Senate sent a windstorm bill to the House, where lawmakers are still talking about whether and how to spread the costs of hurricanes and such across the state. The Senate version — sponsored by Troy Fraser, R-Horseshoe Bay — includes a $400 million "post-event" assessment against property and casualty insurers that do business in Texas. The reserves in the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association, or TWIA, are depleted right now; if a storm hits and claims are made against the fund, it would be able to tax the state's insurance companies to pull in that $400 million. TWIA would also be able to issue up to $600 million in bonds to build its reserves, with the debt service to be paid by insurers in the state.

• Doctors would have to offer ultrasounds to women seeking abortions, but the women could opt out under the terms of legislation tentatively approved by the Senate. That version of SB 182 watered down some from what Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, wanted. The patients would have to fill out and sign a form saying whether they wanted to receive, see, hear, and/or get an explanation of the ultrasound before the abortion, and then would have to sign a consent form for the operation itself.

• It turns out the state allows you to take a kid on your motorcycle no matter how old the kid is. So there's proposed legislation — from Rep. Valinda Bolton, D-Austin — that would require any passenger under five years of age has to ride in a sidecar. Five and up? Hold on for dear life, just like grownups.

• The lobby filings at the Texas Ethics Commission are easier to search online now; the commission's new search engine lets you go back to the beginning of 2004. You can find out, for instance, that lobbyists spent $2,586,380 in the Food & Beverage category in 2007, when the Legislature held its last regular session (numbers for this one aren't yet reported). Entertainment is a separate category, totaling $459,101 that year. The lobsters spent another $260,167 on gifts. You can even ask for detailed lists, finding out who gave away circus tickets, and shaving kits, and pocket knives.

• Department of Corrections: In some editions last week, we wrote that Rep. John Otto's property tax reforms would allow local tax appraisers a larger margin of error in their estimates than they're allowed now. That ain't right; if they vary more than five percent from what the state says values should be, they have to change their numbers. To do otherwise, Otto says, would put a big price tag on his legislation. Sorry, sorry, sorry.

The Lower 40

Quick take on Arlen Specter's switch to the Democratic Party:

He'd be the 59th Democrat in the U.S. Senate. If Al Franken ever beats Norm Coleman in Minnesota (the recount from the November election remains unsettled, with Franken in the lead and the courts, at this point, on his side), he'd been the 60th Democrat. That's the magic number in the U.S. Senate: 60 senators are what it takes to squelch the filibusters that give a minority its clout.

So? Until all that falls into place, the Republicans have been clutching every vote they've got, including that of Texan Kay Bailey Hutchison. She wants to run for governor and talked about resigning late last year. But the numbers made a case against risking the Texas seat to a Democrat. She stayed. But she could still resign later this year — there's talk of that inside and outside her camp — to focus on the state race. If Franken prevails after the Spector switch, hers would be an insurance vote instead of a critical one, and she'd be free to quit to pursue the next paragraph on her resume. It could all have a short life: Hutchison and Spector will be on their states' ballots at the same time (whether she quits the Senate or not) and the numbers could easily change in the November 2010 election.

The Race That Might Be

It took more than ten days for the feds to put it online, but the campaign finance reports for all of the U.S. Senate wannabes from Texas are now available in all their gory detail.

The headliner is John Sharp, the Democrat who announced his fundraising prowess a couple of weeks ago without mentioning that 80 percent of his campaign money came from his personal bank account. Sharp's loans to his campaign total $2,001,678, according to his report with the Federal Election Commission. And he spent some more of his own money — $23,000 — directly on consultants and services, his report says.

It all spends the same, however, and Sharp ended the first quarter of the year with more cash on hand than anyone else on the list. Including only the folks who have expressed interest in Kay Bailey Hutchison's Senate seat, the cash list is: Sharp, $2,432,675; Houston Mayor Bill White, Democrat, $2,131,638; former Secretary of State Roger Williams, Republican, $388,628; Sen. Florence Shapiro, Republican, $310,407; Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, Republican, $164,662; and Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, $113,957.

Roger Williams got more than half his money — $200,501 — from himself, but he's second to Sharp in the loan column. White smoked everyone else in contributions, gathering $1,876,163 during the first three months of the year. Sharp, at around $500,000, was second. White also spent the most, at $472,119; nobody else spent more than $100,000.

By the way, the delay of the reports — Sharp's in particular — apparently took place in the U.S. Senate. He mailed his report on April 15, the due date. The Secretary of the Senate didn't send the report on to the FEC until April 21. That agency posted it over the weekend.

Next Year's Ballot

Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky, a Houston attorney who ran unsuccessfully against Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, filed papers to run for attorney general next year. And she's got a couple of fundraisers coming up in Austin and Houston. She's the first Democrat to actually enter the thing. Former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle told the Austin American-Statesman that he might run, and a number of Republicans are looking, on the assumption that AG Greg Abbott won't seek a third term. His former solicitor general, Ted Cruz, is the only active candidate on that side at this point. And he says he won't run if Abbott does.

Political People and Their Moves

President Obama nominated former state Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi, to be assistant secretary of the Navy for manpower and reserve affairs. Garcia — who served one term in the Texas House before losing to Republican Todd Hunter in November — was one of Obama's law school classmates. He's been working at a Corpus law firm.

In last week's episode, U.S. Attorney Johnny Sutton announced he'd be leaving that job for a post unnamed. Now, it's named: He's joining a law firm with former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft. Sutton will head a new Austin office.

Bryan Preston signs on as the new spokesman for the Republican Party of Texas. He's the replacement for Hans Klingler, who left some time ago to work on Kay Bailey Hutchison's gubernatorial bid. Preston's latest gig was as a producer on Laura Ingraham's radio show.

Railroad Commissioner and U.S. Senate candidate Michael Williams says he's been endorsed by 22 Republican sheriffs, or one of every five Republican sheriffs in the state.

Quotes of the Week

Bill Ferguson, a board member of Northwest Austin Municipal Utility District Number One, on the MUD's challenge to the federal Voting Rights Act, quoted by the Associated Press: "I'm sort of embarrassed that we're still subject to this because it makes us look like dumb crackers. I don't think it's appropriate anymore."

Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford, quoted by the Associated Press on Speaker Joe Straus' decision to let House members run more of their own business without his direction: "Chairs are taking a lot more Tylenol and Advil than in previous sessions."

San Francisco Chronicle Editor-at-large Phil Bronstein, talking about newspapers in The New York Times: "For people who still love print, who like to hold it, feel it, rustle it, tear stuff out, do their I. F. Stone thing, it's important to remember that people are living longer. That's the most hopeful thing you can say about print journalism, that old people are living longer."

Sen. John Carona, R-Dallas, on passing a major transportation bill without much hoopla: "It's all part of my humble nature."

Vice President Joe Biden, during a visit to Austin, quoted in the White House Pool Report: "You Texas guys are ugly as hell, but your women are beautiful. In southern Delaware, they would say y'all married up."

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Texas Weekly: Volume 26, Issue 17, 4 May 2009. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2009 by Printing Production Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 302-5703 or email biz@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 288-6598.

Bloggers are honing in on the Texas Legislature as the Regular Session enters its final month. They're also paying attention to state Capitol visitors and high office seekers, while one blog plays watchdog. Topping it off are posts on other topics, including a live music performance by elected officials.

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Chamber Music

NewspaperTree Blog has the text of an omnibus gambling bill, HJR 137, by Licensing Chair Ed Kuempel, R-Seguin, that passed his committee on Saturday. The bill would allow local elections to legalize and regulate gambling. Candidates include Galveston, South Padre and metro areas. All three Indian tribes would get casinos (and the Kickapoos could move theirs closer to San Antonio). Its companion bill is HB 4416. The local interest for El Paso? The Tigua Indian's gaming rights.

Rep. Kino Flores, D-Palmview, got testy with Calendars Chair Rep. Brian McCall, R-Plano, on the House floor because Flores was frustrated that his disabled veterans bill hadn't gotten on the agenda yet. KVUE's Political Junkie has the back-and-forth.

Poli-Tex 's Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer, D-San Antonio, illustrates how three acting Speakers have broken the gavel in three days. If Sigmund Freud was correct, then House Speaker Joe Straus is in trouble.

A Capitol Blog comments on voter ID legislation in the House, saying, "the vote will be contentious with the political left and the right attacking the bill by amendment. I do expect that the political middle will pass this bill, leaving both unhappy."

The El Paso Times' Vaqueros & Wonkeros espied a meeting among Perry and state lawmakers. House Transportation Chair Joe Pickett, D-El Paso, said the meeting was about empowering metropolitan planning organizations to develop local transportation plans.

Remember SB 1569 by Sen. Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler, that would expand Texas' unemployment insurance program despite Perry's disdain for stimulus strings? Well, a Senate amendment to it doesn't fly with the feds, reports Pollabear. Meanwhile, the Austin American-Statesman's Postcards highlights a bill by Sen. Rodney Ellis, D-Houston, that would allow the state to lease empty parking spots to people or universities.

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Dropping In

KUT 's Notes from the Lege has a radio piece on Vice President Joe Biden's trip to Austin (our boss makes an "appearance"). The blogger says Biden was at least three hours late and didn't take questions from the press. The Dallas Morning News' Trail Blazers has a Texas GOP video making fun of Biden.

Notes from the Lege recorded comedian Ron White's remarks before the House, and Postcards has video of the blue-collar guy wearing a tie. Meanwhile, The Houston Chronicle's Texas Politics snapped a photo of an invasion of the House by dinosaurs, and the Statesman's First Reading has video.

Defending People graced the Pink Dome with his presence on the occasion of HR 480, involving the possible impeachment of Judge Sharon Keller, and writes about a couple of other bills while he was waiting for it to come up.

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Trail Head

If BurkaBlog were U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's campaign manager, he would have her running for Governor as a Democrat, he says. In response, Hutchison pens an epistle to Paul [Burka] saying she's not going to be writing a Dear John to the GOP anytime soon. And Rick vs. Kay picks apart Hutchison's letter. Meanwhile, at a women's dinner, Hutchison didn't respond to governor talk, says Trail Blazers.

NewspaperTree was on scene for an appearance in El Paso by Houston Mayor Bill White, where the potential Senate seeker wondered why they didn't use more solar power out there, was moderate on immigration, supported the drug war and said, "No, I don't" support nationalized health care. In other news, White is looking for fellowship applicants to work three months for no pay on his campaign, says Burnt Orange Report.

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Good Dog

Texas Watchdog also has 99 pages of correspondence between White and developer Marvy Finger for readers' perusal. Find more here.

Watchdog knows what Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst did last summer (and spring and fall and winter), and readers can, too, by reading his 2008 calendar, which the blog has posted here.

Completing the trifecta, Watchdog has a series of articles on the relationships involving private prison contractor GEO Group and the spouses of Sen. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo, and Rep. Rene Oliveira, D-Brownsville.

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Olla Podrida

Some House Reps. got together on Sixth Street in Austin and jammed for charity, reports NewspaperTree. Meanwhile, Americans for Prosperity is pushing another round of conservative tea parties for July 4, according to Lone Star Diary. And U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, participated in a live-chat with readers of the Houston Chronicle's Texas on the Potomac.

A Capitol Blog posts a Feb. 2007 photo he took of now-Pres. Barack Obama and Assistant Secretary of the Navy nominee and former Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi. The blogger, Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Edinburg, says he spoke to Obama about Garcia on that day.

At least one person isn't worried about the swine flu: U.S. Rep. Ron Paul. At least that's what he says on a video that Trail Blazers picked up. Click here to hear U.S. Supreme Court arguments on the voting rights case involving an Austin municipal utility district, via C-Span and Potomac. And a couple dozen employees of the State Bar's Office of Chief Disciplinary Counsel are moving into the Texas Law Center on the state Capitol grounds, reports Tex Parte Blog, so say hello if you see them.

Headline of the Week award goes to Tex Parte for a whimsical headline about serious business involving a former faux lawyer who also happens to be a major Democratic donor: "Mauricio Celis wants trial judge off his case."

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This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is semi-settled in Austin. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

[UPDATED] A $172.1 million cut that would free all but 20 percent of the businesses that pay the state's corporate franchise tax is on its way to the Senate after final approval from the House.

That chamber approved the revisions with no amendments and no Nays and sent it on to the Senate.

The legislation from Rep. Rene Oliveira, D-Brownsville, would raise the exemption from the tax so that businesses making $1 million or less every year don't have to pay it. The current exemption is $300,000, and businesses below $1 million move through a graduated scale until they hit $1 million and get taxed at the full rate.

Budgeteers have been warning all year that the state needs to pinch pennies in anticipation of fiscal trouble expected in 2011. Those concerns have blocked several spending initiatives this year (especially those that would've dipped into the state's so-called Rainy Day Fund), but weren't raised when the tax bill came to the floor.

One of the original selling points during the 2006 revision of the business tax was that the old version wasn't broad-based — that only the biggest, most capital-intensive companies in the state were paying and that it wasn't fair to put all of the burden on a relative few. This change would move the new tax back in that direction, cutting loose about 39,000 current taxpayers (who'll have paid the tax for just two years) and leaving fewer businesses paying the new franchise tax than were paying the old one.

But legislators, given the choice between that "broad-based tax" argument and a tax break for small businesses, chose Door Number Two, on a 141-0 vote.

The change would only apply for the next two years. If lawmakers don't want the exemption to revert to the current $300,000, they'll have to revisit the tax during their 2011 session.

The Senate included $750 million in their two-year budget for Medicaid growth. In the House bill, there's no money for that. And now, health and human services folks are telling budgeteers that at least another $1 billion will be needed for Medicaid, and maybe as much as $1.8 billion.

So that leads to the second difference of opinion between the upper and lower appropriators, which is related: How much money to spend, and when? While the Senate — through Finance Chairman Steve Ogden, R-Bryan — is talking budget crunch, House Appropriations Chairman Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie, says lawmakers can wait until they come back in 2011 to take care of at least part of that funding.

He suggests they write the budget now without worrying over Medicaid and come back early in the next session, find out what it'll take to cover any deficit in that ever-growing program, and put it in that session's supplemental appropriations bill. That's the bill that takes care of unexpected stuff in a current budget while most of the attention is on writing a new budget.

And he's got plenty of precedent to back the idea. This year's supplemental appropriations bill — which isn't complete and won't be for a couple of weeks — totals well over $3 billion and could easily reach $4 billion before the Legislature is through. These used to be relatively small bills designed to pick up unexpected expenses that came up between legislative sessions.

Half of the current $3.3 billion version is for Medicaid. That $1.6 billion effectively covers a deficit left in that program when the current budget was written two years ago; had the money been included at that time, there'd be no need for it in the supplemental bill.

In fact, it's not unusual for Texas lawmakers to short-sheet Medicaid when they're writing the budget, knowing they can settle up two years later. Also, since it's an entitlement program, they don't have to worry that someone will go unserved in the meantime: The state doesn't have the option of not providing the service in that state-federal program.

The short-sheeting helped budget-writers get out of a spending hole in 2003 and has been almost a structural part of the budget since then. It's not all games, either: The Medicaid numbers are notoriously hard to predict and the later numbers — those that go into the supplemental budgets — are firmer than the forecasts available two years earlier.

The estimates made now for the 2010-11 budget could change, for instance, if unemployment rates in the state go up. As unemployment gets worse, the federal matching ratios for Medicaid get better — the state gets a better match if unemployment is high. So that could change. The feds could put more stimulus money into Medicaid and that would change the numbers. Or the caseloads, costs of service, and utilization rates — the three big variables for clients of the program — could change. Even a small change in the growth rate of any of those three things can translate into a huge change in the overall cost of the program.

The Center for Public Policy Priorities dug into the numbers. Part of what happened is that the HHSC estimators raised their caseload estimates in April. And the Legislative Budget Board, which low-balled the numbers earlier this year, is now predicting higher caseloads than the health and human services folks. But nobody will know the actual numbers until the services are rendered.

All of that will be clearer in January 2011 than it is today, whether they try to include the money in the budget now or not.

If lawmakers stick to their current pattern, the Senate will want to put some money for Medicaid into the budget they're writing now; the House will want to hold back and put most of it in the supplemental bill two years from now.

Either way, they'll settle up the differences between what's predicted and what actually happens when they come back in two years, just as they're doing now with the budget they wrote in 2007.

Democratic leaders in the House — those with chairs and vice chairs — signed a letter asking for more hearings on Voter ID before it gets out of committee. But the Republican chairman of the Elections Committee — Todd Smith, R-Euless — says he's held all the hearings he plans to hold. Later, he said hearings might be possible.In their letter to Smith and to House Speaker Joe Straus, the Democrats ask for a hearing on "whatever final form" of Voter ID gets the Election panel's consideration. The most recent version floated by Smith would require voters to present at photo ID before voting, and would count their votes as provisional if alternative, non-photo ID is presented. It would also take effect in 2011 — after next year's elections but sooner than in earlier versions of Smith's bill. But Smith says the public hearings have already been held and that he's trying to get a bill out of committee and to the full House for consideration. "There's no reason to have any more," Smith says. "What we need is a version of the bill that would have a sufficient number of votes to get out of committee. We're simply moving pieces and parts of legislation that have already been heard." The letter includes a memo from Democratic election lawyers that contends the failure to hold public hearings on the finished bill could endanger its chances of winning Voting Rights Act approval from the U.S. Department of Justice. Here's their letter (click on it for a readable copy):

Gov. Rick Perry's political team still has their candidate trailing potential challenger Kay Bailey Hutchison, but they say the margin is narrower than it was the last time they looked.

The Perry folk are spinning it as evidence that Hutchison's support is fragile and claim in a letter to supporters that they see the race as a statistical dead heat (if it is, those were not among the numbers in the pollster memo they released to their supporters). The Hutchison folk note that the governor is losing even in his own survey.

From Perry spokesman Mark Miner: "The senator's lead disappeared faster than the Wall Street bailout dollars she voted for."

From Hutchison spokesman Hans Klingler: "Rick Perry must be very disappointed that after 10 years as Governor, weeks of grandstanding rhetoric subjecting Texas to ridicule across America, and ignoring his responsibilities to lead during the legislative session, he has the support of only 39% of Republican primary voters. This is both dismal and a formula for failure."

The survey by Austin-based Baselice & Associates — the governor's pollster — showed Hutchison 11 percentage points ahead of Perry in a straight-up poll (Baselice, 503 Republican primary voters, May 3-4, margin of error +/- 4.5 percent). Hutchison leads Perry 47% to 36% in that version. Add their titles — Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison — to the possible answers, and Republican primary voters put Perry in front, 43% to 42%. And the pollsters averaged those two results to conclude Hutchison leads Perry 45% to 39% right now. See the memo here.

The respondents were overwhelmingly opposed to the federal bailouts of Wall Street and the auto industry — two federal issues that Perry has already been connecting to Hutchison. They think, by a two-to-one margin, that the Republican Party is on the wrong track, and they blame Republican leaders in Washington rather than Republican leaders in Texas for that problem.

The race isn't officially on yet, and it's safe to assume there will be more polling released — from third parties and the campaigns — in the weeks following the legislative session. Perry has said he'll seek another term in 2010. Hutchison is exploring a race and moved most of her political treasury from a federal to a state account. Three Democrats have said they're looking: former U.S. Ambassador Tom Schieffer of Fort Worth, state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte of San Antonio, and writer/musician Kinky Friedman of Medina.

A day later, the Perry camp floated a second pollster memo featuring two questions about whether Hutchison ought to give up her spot in the U.S. Senate to run for governor. Most — 63 percent in one question, 67 percent in the other — said she should serve out her term. Again, the caveat: It's the governor's pollster and they're selectively releasing the best bits.

The legislative deadlines start kicking in next week. Here's the roadmap:

Click on it to download a copy.

Another day, another poll: Rasmussen has Gov. Rick Perry ahead of U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in a hypothetical GOP primary race for governor in 2010.Perry got 42 percent to Hutchison's 38 percent in the survey of likely Republican primary voters (Rasmussen, 700 likely Republican primary voters, May 6, +/- 4 percent). See their survey here.

Lots of folks have been knocking the House this session for moving too slowly under new House Speaker Joe Straus. Recently, Rep. Kino Flores, D-Palmview, earned some headlines for being a squeaky wheel about a veterans' bill he thought had stalled. But word is that Flores' situation is the exception, not the rule, and overall, the mood of the House seems copacetic despite bill-killing deadlines that start kicking in next week.

"A few people are disgruntled," says Rep. Alma Allen, D-Houston, "But it's been a banner year for me."

On the surface, it may have seemed as if the House was lagging, but all the while committees were working steadily, Allen says. She credits Straus for his committee assignments, saying, "It makes people feel good to be on a committee they want to be on."

It also helped that Straus — and Calendars Chairman Brian McCall, R-Plano — surveyed members as to their top three legislative priorities, says freshman Rep. Marisa Marquez, D-El Paso. Meanwhile, second-term Rep. Solomon Ortiz, Jr., D-Corpus Christi, says Straus' management has made for a "smoother process" in the House overall.

Rep. Larry Phillips, R-Sherman, thinks the lower chamber has made up a lot of ground in the past week and that there's still time to get things done.

"It's hard to be critical at this point," he says.

"We went through 65 bills in two-and-a-half hours the other day. That's hardly 'slow,'" says Rep. Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth.

Contentious issues remain, like the Texas Department of Insurance sunset bill, voter ID, guns on campus, and unemployment insurance stimulus funds, among others. Members are saying they expect a voter identification bill will be voted on (though some are crossing their fingers that it won't).

"Everybody thinks it's stuck in committee. But we'll get it adjusted, and come up with a better deal than the Senate," says Rep. Delwin Jones, R-Lubbock.

By "better," Jones thinks the House will settle on a standard comparable to what is required to get on a commercial airplane flight.

The House will vote the ID bill out of committee next week and substitute it on the floor for the Senate version, predicts Jones, one of five House Republicans not to sign onto a list of voter ID demands that circulated last week.

While they're not blaming House leadership, members still have worries that some legislation may not make it through, mentioning big-ticket items like windstorm insurance, school finance reform and children's health insurance.

Geren says he and other House members are looking at Senate vehicles to carry their stalled bills. Geren is planning to use that technique on legislation he says would fall in the "Major State" category that gets priority on the calendar, but he wouldn't give us specifics.

Concerns about a special session over the budget are still making their way through the grapevine, Allen says. (Gov. Rick Perry said recently that he's pretty happy with the budgets passed by the two houses and doesn't see veto bait there.)

However, Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, says she's confident that legislators will be able to craft a budget by Sine Die, regardless of recent revisions to the amount Texas needs to set aside for Medicaid. Van de Putte says that will be worked out through conference committee, special appropriations in 2011 or some combination of the two.

"I learned early, early on in the session that gambling is not going anywhere. I'm no longer disappointed," says Sen. Kip Averitt, D-Waco.

When asked about a gambling bill's prospects in the lower chamber, Allen says simply: "We have a very religious House."

Averitt says he's also holding his breath over his SB 16, providing incentives for a broad range of air quality improvement measures, as well as SJR 50, which provides long-term funding for the state water plan. Both of those have left the Senate.

"We'll see the attitude of the House toward creating a new bonding authority," he says.

Allen's hoping that the Senate is receptive to her House Joint Resolution 39, post-ratifying the 24th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, abolishing poll taxes. Last session, she got the measure to the Senate, where it died without a vote.

Rep. Tommy Merritt, R-Longview, takes the existentialist route when asked how things are going. "I'm happy to be alive," he says.

— by a Texas Weekly correspondent

The proposed ban on smoking in most public places is languishing in the Texas Senate and the backers are starting to get nervous. They've done a poll in Sen. Jane Nelson's district; the Lewisville Republican chairs the committee where the legislation is smoldering.

In that survey of Republican primary voters, 62 percent said they favor a statewide law "that would prohibit smoking in all indoor workplaces and public facilities including public buildings, offices, restaurants, and bars" (Baselice & Associates, May 3, 201 Republican primary voters, +/- 7.0% margin of error). Here's the nub of it: 58 percent of those Republicans said they'd have a positive impression of someone in the leadership of the fight, and 57 percent would be more likely to vote for an advocate of the ban in a primary. Subtle, huh?

In a statewide survey, the same firm found 55 percent of GOP primary voters favor the ban, and 41 percent oppose it (Baselice, May 3-4, 503 Republican primary voters, +/- 4.5% margin of error).

• The Senate voted to accept federal stimulus funds for unemployment insurance (UI) and so did a House committee, but that's bottled up in the House Calendars Committee. Gov. Rick Perry is against it and would probably prefer that the House kill it. At a minimum, he's the Lege doesn't approve it until it's too late to override a veto.

• The effort to put the State Board of Education into the sunset process — where it would be reviewed every 12 years by the Legislature — rose one day and died the next. The House tentatively and narrowly approved the idea and then, 24 hours later, narrowly killed it.

The House tentatively approved a full-day pre-kindergarten bill that has morphed from a full-scale formula-funded public school program into a grant-funded expansion of the current half-day program. And its size will be based on the amount of funds included in the budget; to take in all of the kids now in Pre-K programs would cost around $390 million over the next two years. But Rep. Diane Patrick, R-Arlington, got 109 votes in the House (she had more than 100 co-sponsors) and is now watching to see whether the Senate — which has moved slowly on the legislation — will go along with this milder version.

• The House spiked a proposal to replace the state's three railroad commissioners with just one, but that agency could still get a new name. At least one bill that would rename it as the Texas Energy Commission is still alive and won Senate approval. The current name, supporters say, is outdated.

• Limits on tuition increases at state universities won Senate approval and are working in the House. The Senate would limit annual increases to five percent, and the limits would tighten in years when legislative budget-writers raised spending on those schools. That's Sen. Judith Zaffirini's version. The House has looked at similar bills without the limits on tuition increases in years when the Legislature is stingy. The schools were allowed to control their own tuition in 2003, after complaining that costs were outrunning what the Legislature was willing to spend.

• Backpacks full of textbooks could fall to technology under a bill approved by the House. It would allow school districts to include digital instruction materials in their textbook budgets: electronic books, CDs, laptops and the like. Those materials would still have to come from lists approved by state education officials.

• The Senate put wheels on the eminent domain bill, a politically touchy subject since lawmakers approved it two years ago and ran into a surprise veto from the governor. He's praising the version from Sen. Craig Estes, R-Wichita Falls, which is on its way to the House. Ag groups in particular are pushing the issue, which rose to the top of the pile after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that it's legal to use eminent domain for economic development purposes.

[UPDATED] The head of the state police is out after women in the agency complained to the board about his behavior. Col. Stan Clark, interim director of the Department of Public Safety since September of last year, is resigning at the end of the month after 36 years with the agency. Col. Lamar Beckworth was chosen by the board to act as director until a permanent leader is hired. Allan Polunsky, chairman of the Texas Public Safety Commission issued a terse statement. The agency later issued a copy of a complaint against Clark.

"This is an elite law enforcement agency. We expect all our employees to demonstrate the highest degree of professionalism. The director must set the example for all employees in their workplace communications. Col. Clark has acknowledged his failure to adhere to those high standards and has chosen to retire at the end of this month. We are disappointed by this matter, and we are committed to moving on in our search for a director."

In which we present a debate transcript featuring Reps. Debbie Riddle, R-Tomball, at the back microphone in the House, and Democrats Rafael Anchia of Dallas, Jose Menendez of San Antonio, and Mark Strama of Austin at the front mike. The setup: Anchia is presenting a bill for Strama, who wasn't in the room when his bill came up on the calendar. Reps. Menendez and Patrick Rose of Dripping Springs had non-speaking roles. Pictured in order:

Riddle (questioning Anchia about his bill): Rep. Strama? I haven't had a chance...

Anchia: I'm Rep. Menendez. I'm sorry.

Riddle: I'm sorry. Forgive me. Do you know, is there... Rep. Menendez, I was looking at Strama here. I know the difference. Is there a... is there a... is there a fiscal note with this?

Anchia: Let me look.

Riddle: This is a serious bill and I have a serious question.

Anchia: Yes, it is.

Anchia (to Mendendez, walking by): Thank you, Mr. Anchia.

Anchia (to Riddle): I'll tell you what. Here it is. It says there is no fiscal implication to the state, nor local government.

Riddle: Do you know if they're going to be working with the non-profit 501c3 organizations like the Reed Commission and like Houston-Harris County Literacy Advance and other organizations like that?

Anchia: They are able to work with any of those groups, however, the membership, just to be clear, of the interagency literacy council is TEA, HECB, and TWC.

Anchia (referring to Strama, beside him): Hold on. Let me turn it over to Rep. Rose. Hold on.

Speaker Joe Straus: The chair recognizes Rep. Strama.

Strama: Thank you, Mr. Speaker. I apologize. Rep. Riddle, what's your question? Sorry.

Want to watch it? Go here and start at 24:24.

John Malcolm Bales of Nacogdoches is the new U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Texas, replacing Rebecca Gregory, a Bush Administration appointee who's going to work for Texas AG Greg Abbott. Bales has been first assistant and chief of the criminal division in that office.

Bryan Shaw was confirmed for a spot on the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, but only after a handful of senators blasted him and the agency for being too close to the industries they regulate. Shaw, a Texas A&M engineering professor, won a term on the board on a 20-7 vote.

Ross Melinchuk will head the natural resource divisions as the new deputy executive director of the Texas Parks & Wildlife Commission. He's been with Ducks Unlimited since 1992.

Gov. Rick Perry has revved up the appointments office, naming these folks to boards and such:

• Joe Shannon Jr. will be Tarrant County's district attorney until the 2010 elections. Perry named Shannon, an assistant DA to the late Tim Curry and a former state lawmaker to serve the rest of Curry's term.

• Attorney Robert Fillmore of Plano to the 5th court of Appeals, replacing Amos Mazzant of Sherman, a Perry appointee who moved up to a federal magistrate appointment.

• George "Trey" Henderson III to the Texas Ethics Commission, replacing Raymond "Tripp" Davenport III. Henderson is president of Angelina Hardwood Sales Co. of Lufkin.

• Mary Baty of Humble, Bill Birdwell of Bryan, Whitney Hyde of Midland, and Rudy Ramos Jr. of Houston to the Texas State Board of Dental Examiners. Baty is a dental hygienist. Birdwell and Ramos are dentists. And Hyde is a court administrator.

• Patti Johnson of Canyon Lake, owner of Patti Kaykes Enterprises, to the State Commission on Judicial Conduct.

• Lori McCool of Boerne, a CPA and a principal of WoodWay Associates, to the Finance Commission of Texas.

• Christina Martin of Mission, Imogen Papadopoulos of Houston, and Scott Rosenbach of Amarillo to the Department of Family and Protective Services Council. Papadopoulos, an attorney, is being reappointed. Martin owns and runs a travel agency. Rosenbach is pastor of administration at Trinity Fellowship Church.

• Glenda Kane of Corpus Christi, Lewis Foxhall of Houston, and Nasruddin Rupani of Sugar Land to the State Health Services Council. Kane and Foxhall are being reappointed. Rupani, president of World's Gold and Diamonds, is new to the board.

• Diego Demaya of Houston, Berkley Dyer of Austin, and Mary "Jody" Unruh of Houston to the Department of Assistive and Rehabilitative Services Council. Demaya is a human resources educator and legal specialist with the Memorial Hermann Healthcare System. Dyer is a community volunteer. And Unruh is a self-employed pastoral counselor and property manager.

• Bill Strawn, a retired executive recruiter from Austin, to chair the Judicial Compensation Commission, and added Cruz Hernandez of Burleson and P. Bane Phillippi of Cedar Creek to that board. Hernandez is a teacher's aide; Phillippi is an attorney.

Dr. William Fleming is the new president of the Texas Medical Association and the first African-American to hold that position. He's a clinical assistant prof of neurology at the UT Medical School in Houston.

Deaths: Retired Houston Chronicle political reporter Jane Ely, a wonderful, wonderful old-school journalist, from respiratory illness. She was 69.