Not every Democrat we know is twitchy or nervous or jumpy or scared — maybe they're not in the Halloween frame of mind. But candidates and consultants who ordinarily aren't worried at all are uncertain, and in a negative way — not the state you want to be in during the closing days of a campaign.

This is all over but the voting, the lawsuits, recounts and ethics fines. Voters are angry, by most accounts, but their anger isn't necessarily consistent. It's aimed at incumbents here, Democrats there, mainstream Republicans over there, and so on. The political economy is humming, with $44 million in transactions during the last 30 days and a half-dozen House races that have surpassed the $1 million mark. Rick Perry pulled ahead of Bill White on the financial front (by about $4.3 million) and in the latest polls, including a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll that found Perry up by 10 points and a survey for the state's major newspapers that found Perry ahead by 12 percentage points.

Democrats began the political season with hopes of knocking off two or three Republicans in the Texas House, enough to return them to that body's majority. There were all kinds of theories way back then, ten months ago. Perry was facing the most popular Texas Republican in office, in Kay Bailey Hutchison. And White, the former mayor of Houston, was on the Democratic ticket, ready to go toe-to-toe financially and otherwise with whichever Republican escaped the primary. But the winds of anger at Washington swept Perry easily past Hutchison and have propelled him through a general election campaign in which he largely ignored his opponent

It's the time of the political year when you have to excuse some of the liars. Not the ones running for office — the ones working for them, spinning reporters and donors and others with tales of how well everything is going. Half of them will be issuing apologies next week, saying they knew all along that their candidates were croutons, but they had to keep their spirits up just in case lightning hit the spot.

We'll send you to the charts, including the final Hot List of the cycle, a link to the full 8-day reports in comparative, interactive form, and our own concoction on campaign finance, in which we add the money spent by each campaign since mid-year to the amount they had on hand in their latest reports. The big Kahunas are the aforementioned gubernatorial candidates, but there are some whoppers down the ballot. State Rep. Patrick Rose, D-Dripping Springs, is the prizewinner so far, having spent and/or hoarded $1.1 million in a race that's gobbling up TV minutes in the Austin market. Jim Dunnam, the Waco Democrat who makes some Republicans sputter like Elmer Fudd in the presence of Bugs Bunny, faces a seriously well-financed challenger in Marva Beck. She jumped over the half-million mark in contributions in her latest report.

The viewer's guide to next Tuesday is pretty simple. Two of the state's 32 congressional seats are hot and could easily flip from the Democrats to the Republicans. There aren't any races worth attention in the Texas Senate (tip your hat or raise your middle finger to the people who drew that particular redistricting map). And the House will be a pretty good measure of what kind of year this is. The Democrats who started with the idea that they might be able to get a majority face the very real prospect of losing a half dozen seats or more. The post-election House mix will provide a pretty good measure of just how Republican a year this really is.

And the money:

Inside Intelligence

We're starting a new weekly feature with our sister publication The Texas Tribune: A survey of insiders on questions of the moment, called Inside Intelligence. We sent questions to more than 400 lobbyists, consultants, former officeholders and others to see how they think things are going in the last week of the governor's race. We didn't ask current officeholders or their staffs, and we used an Internet service that prevents non-invitees from voting and prevents invitees from voting more than once. We'll do a new one every week, running in Texas Weekly on Friday and sometime the next week in the Tribune.

We got a good response to this first effort — 121 took the survey, saying how they'll vote in the governor's race, who they think will win, and their short analysis of what's up. Our respondents identified their own party preferences: 48 percent Republican, 31 percent Democrat, and 19 percent independent. That leaves 2 percent "other".

How'd they vote? Rick Perry beat Bill White 55 percent to 38 percent in this unscientific poll. And the insiders think it's over: 95 percent said Perry will win, only 3 percent picked the Democrat and the rest would undecided or didn't want to choose.

Here's where it got interesting, and why we wanted to ping the insiders for their opinions; the insiders gave verbatim responses to the question, "What are the biggest factors affecting the outcome?" A sampling follows (you can download the full set here):

• "Economy and jobs"

• "Turnout among urban African Americans and Hispanics in South Texas and the Valley"

• "Turnout, message, style of candidate"

• "Disgust with the Democratic Party generally and nationally, more specifically."

• "The Texas economy in comparison to the rest of the nation. Tea party fervor and negatives of national Democratic party positions on key issues to Texans."

• "For some inexplicable reason, White tried to make this race a referendum on himself rather than a referendum on Perry."

• "Turnout in Harris County and the Libertarian vote"

• "Anger at the Democrats in Washington. Perry has effectively become a "cheerleader" on that issue."

• "Texas is doing better than the rest of the nation. Perry is a monster campaigner. White could have been competitive but ran a poor campaign."

• "Disaffected Democrats in an overwhelmingly Republican year. It is a real Double-Whammy."

• "Obama and the dismal Democrats (who ever thought I'd be missing Lyndon?), Money, Lack of 'effective' coverage of the issues and positions, Bill White can take any issue and wonk it out"

• "Houston turnout for White"

• "anti-Obama, anti-Washington, anti-spending"

• "Perry fatigue being outpaced by anti-Washington fervor"

• "Perry's done a good job and Texas works well compared to every other state in the nation. White may be a good person individually but I would be worried about his appointees and staff as having too many 'community organizers'."

• "Perry staying on message. White not being able to find a consistent meassage. White running from The President."

• "National trend for Republicans."

• "The White campaign didn't drive a coherent message that effectively exploited Perry's vulnerabilities."

• "Texas is a politically conservative state. The Democratic candidate has not generated any excitement among his base. More importantly, he has not done anything to move independents. He ran the same campaign as the Hutchison campaign."

• "Voter turnout, national backlash against Democrats, concern re Bill White's ties to trial lawyers and organized labor"

• "Three decades of confusion (make it five)"

• "Anger and the mobilization of that anger."

• "It's Texas. Obama, Pelosi and Reid are a millstone around Bill White's neck."

• "1) National tidal wave and Obama back-lash, 2) Bill White's micro-management of his own campaign, and specifically that he do all the talking in his ads. He is terrible on camera. His low energy makes David Porter interesting."

• "Perry's ability to use Obama's negatives; the national economy; subpar White campaign organization."

• "Fear"

A Familiar Brew

Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston announced the formation of yet another Dan Patrick-led group in response to the Tea Party movement.

In April, he rolled out the Independent Conservative Republicans of Texas, dedicated to five core principles (not to be confused with the five slightly different guiding principles of The Common Sense Texans Network, the main network of Tea Party organizations in Texas). Patrick’s group was quickly joined by 15 other Republican senators and 54 House members.

Now Patrick has announced the formation of the Tea Party Caucus. According to the corresponding press release, a board of 11 legislators from both chambers will lead the caucus, though Patrick says that number could expand given high levels of interest. Known board members include Republican Reps. Wayne Christian of Center, Brandon Creighton of Conroe, Ken Paxton of McKinney and recently elected Sen. Brian Birdwell, R-Waco, each listed in the release. On the phone, Patrick later added that Rep. Sid Miller of Stephenville, Sen. Robert Nichols of Jacksonville and Sen. Craig Estes of Wichita Falls should be on that list.

Patrick said that the new caucus is “vastly different” from ICROT. The latter, he said, was “designed to make a statement of who we were as Republican legislators, that we put people before party. It was not intended to be an active caucus. It served its purpose well, and that work is pretty much done.”

The Tea Party Caucus will actively work with Tea Party leaders to push a conservative, Tea Party-approved agenda. Continued membership in the group is contingent upon supporting that agenda, as well as signing the Texas Conservative Coalition Pledge with Texas and getting high marks on that group’s legislative report card.

"The main mission is that I want to be sure that the Tea Parties across the state of Texas now have their voice heard,” Patrick said. “The Tea Party has been a bottom-up organization and is, politically, the greatest thing to happen to in my lifetime.”

The formal announcement of the caucus will come at a rally at the Capitol shortly after the beginning of the legislative session.

When Patrick announced the creation of ICROT, he appeared on former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s show on Fox News as well as conservative pundit Laura Ingraham’s radio program. What the pick-up will be for this very similar-seeming organization remains to be seen.

Polling the 17th

A new independent poll shows Republican Bill Flores up 12 points over U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco. The Hill, a newspaper that covers the Capitol, surveyed likely voters in the Central Texas district by phone between Oct. 19 and 21. The margin of error was 4.9 percent.

The crosstabs reveal that both candidates' support breaks down strictly along party lines — something that could be deadly for Edwards in this anti-Democrat year. Edwards attracts 9 percent of Republican voters, while Flores attracts only 3 percent of Democrats. Another detail: The incumbent is more popular among women and the young, but Flores takes the lead among the 35-to-54 and 55-plus age groups.

Fifty-six percent of voters surveyed in CD-17 have a favorable view of Flores, well above his unfavorability rating of 31 percent. The numbers aren't as good for Edwards: 45 percent of voters have a favorable view of the incumbent, compared to the 49 percent who view him unfavorably. Sixty-six percent of the voters polled disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing; 78 percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

Flores campaign manager Matt Mackowiak said in an e-mail that the poll confirmed what they've already seen in the district, adding that "regardless of what any poll says, Bill Flores is continuing to work like we are twenty points behind to ensure we finish strong on Election Day."

Edwards spokeswoman Megan Jacobs said their internal numbers showed the race to be "very close." In an e-mail, she pointed out that the poll was taken "before seniors and voters started learning that, despite his denials to the contrary, Mr. Flores has proposed privatizing Social Security and raising the retirement age to 70." She's referring, in part, to Flores' stumble two weeks ago, when he indicated that he would support raising the retirement age, and then later retracted it, blaming a headache for the misstep.

Doling Out Against Dunnam

The Texas for Lawsuit Reform PAC has spent more than a half million dollars in its bid to help Republican challenger Marva Beck oust House veteran Jim Dunnam, D-Waco. Finance reports disclosed Tuesday show that Beck received more than $404,000 in in-kind contributions from the PAC for the filing period that began Sept. 24 and ended Oct. 23. Add to that an additional $64,000 it doled out this week, according to pre-election telegram reports, and the $60,000 reported on her previous finance report and it adds up to what Jeff Rotkoff, the executive director of the Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee, says is more a TLR subsidiary than a campaign.

TLR spokeswoman Sherry Sylvester told The Texas Tribune last week that Dunnam could be considered the most disruptive member of the Texas Legislature in recent memory after leading the charge during the chubbing strategy against the Voter ID bill in 2009 and the walkout over redistricting in 2003.

Kino’s Conviction

Rep. Ismael “Kino” Flores could face several years in a state prison after a Travis County jury found the Palmview Democrat guilty of several counts of perjury and tampering with government records. The Associated Press reported Wednesday that the South Texas lawmaker, who has represented HD-36 since 1997, is guilty of five counts of misdemeanor tampering with a governmental record, two counts of misdemeanor perjury and four counts of felony tampering with a governmental record.

Flores was indicted last year for failing to comply with state ethics laws for failing to disclose sources of income, gifts and other information in personal financial statements. Prosecutors said the omissions were not clerical errors, as Flores maintained, but instead closer to bribes.

Following his indictment last year, Flores announced he would not seek re-election. In March, South Texas attorney Sergio Muñoz Jr., the son of Flores’ predecessor, Sergio Muñoz, defeated Sandra Rodriguez in their bid to replace Flores. There is no Republican or Libertarian on the ballot.

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Amarillo made the cut with the Gates Foundation to participate in its Partners for Postsecondary Success initiative. The city will use the grant money it was awarded — $100,000 — to devise a plan to increase the percentage of adults who complete college or earn a technical certificate. The Amarillo Area Foundation will use the seven-month window to identify ways to help young adults succeed, creating a model for other cities to follow. Upon submission of the plan, the Amarillo Area Foundation hopes to earn $1.5 million to implement it.

The Dallas Morning News found itself in the uncomfortable position of retracting one of its endorsements. It previously recommended Stephen Broden in the race for CD-30, but withdrew the recommendation after Broden said during a TV interview that for dissatisfied citizens, armed revolution is “on the table” this year. The paper concluded that it could not endorse Broden or his opponent, incumbent Eddie Bernice Johnson, the longtime Democratic congresswoman, who was found to have awarded to scholarships to family members and associates.

A body found in a shallow grave on a ranch near Athens was confirmed to be the son of former Gov. Bill Clements. Gill Clements had been reported missing and when sheriff’s deputies went looking for him, they were forced to shoot his neighbor, Howard Granger, when he opened fire on them. Authorities discovered a man’s body in a shallow grave behind a house on the property and called Granger the likely killer.

Prosecutors wrapped up their portion of the Article 32 hearing of Maj. Nidal Hasan after 56 witnesses testified to the events of the shooting rampage last November that killed 13 people and wounded more than 30. The defense has requested a delay in presenting witnesses until Nov. 15, when it will have results from psychological assessments that it hopes to present as mitigating evidence and a counter to the threat of the death penalty.

Early voting numbers across the state continue to show dramatic increases over 2006, prompting speculation about what’s driving it. Analysts suggested that Texans are enjoying the convenience of voting early, while party officials try to spin it as an enthusiastic reaction to this year’s candidates.

Protracted jury selection didn’t pan out the way it was predicted in the run-up to the money laundering trial of Tom DeLay. A jury was chosen quickly from the pool of 91, in spite of accusations of racism by the prosecution. The defense struck several African-Americans jurors, leaving only one African-American on the six-man, six-woman jury. The trial is set to begin Monday in Travis County and is predicted to run three weeks.

As the poverty rate increases in Texas, so goes the rate of increase in food stamp usage. The number of food stamp recipients in Texas increased by 34 percent during the last two years of economic downturn. Census data show Texas has the eighth-highest poverty rate in the nation, and social services cannot always keep up with the demand. Food banks statewide are stretched thin and are struggling to provide basic necessities to the growing number of people affected by layoffs and the weak economy.

San Antonio-area schools fought off a spate of sudden absenteeism linked to rumors about teenage members of so-called wolf packs planning shooting rampages in local high schools. The rumors spread quickly through at least nine districts in the vicinity, helped along by social media and instant messaging. Absenteeism was so rampant that districts are said to have lost more than $80,000 in state funds. Districts labored to calm parents and students’ fears, and absenteeism now appears to be returning to normal levels.

Political People and Their Moves

Ismael "Kino" Flores, about whom legislators and lobbyists have traded a million stories over the years, was convicted by a Travis County jury this week for not reporting various sources of campaign and personal income.

The biggest of the 11 convictions carries a maximum prison time of two years; sentencing is set for November 22, and Flores still has the right to appeal. Prosecutors said Flores was peddling his legislative influence; what they actually charged him with was tampering with government records and perjury, a set of 11 charges that included four felonies. He argued that the records issues were clerical errors and denied taking money in return for legislative favors.

The Palmview Democrat didn't run for reelection in the face of the charges, and the convictions don't automatically remove him from office, either. His successor will take office in January. Flores was, under then-House Speaker Tom Craddick, chairman of the House Licensing and Regulation Committee, with oversight over alcohol and gambling regs, among other issues.

Quotes of the Week

Criminal Court of Appeals Presiding Judge Sharon Keller on misconceptions about her judicial record, quoted in The Texas Tribune: "The idea that I don’t care about defendants, or indigent defense, is ridiculous."

Dick DeGuerin, attorney for former U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, after picking the jury for the Sugar Land Republican's trial on money laundering charges, quoted in the Austin American-Statesman: "I'm very encouraged. We have a great jury. We have a great case. Tom DeLay is a great client. We're ready."

Travis County District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg on the verdict returned against former Rep. Kino Flores, D-Palmview: "This verdict represents the public saying ... that accurate and full public disclosure is an important part of public service and that the public will not accept excuses like ‘I was too busy’ or ‘I just didn’t know.’”

Mark Miner, spokesman for Gov. Rick Perry’s campaign, to NBC-DFW after one of the campaign’s YouTube channels was shut down for copyright violations: “Some of the sitcoms didn't like the humor. They didn't have any problem with the facts in the ads."

Stephen Broden, the Republican running against U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, in a web video explaining his interview with WFAA-TV in Dallas, in which he said violent overthrow of the government was on the table: “My remarks were intended to be historical and philosophical in nature. They were taken out of context by a reporter and only part of what I said was heard.”

Charlie Garza, a GOP candidate for the State Board of Education, to the Midland Reporter-Telegram on his desire for a stricter focus on teaching the U.S. Constitution and other founding documents: “If studying the foundation of the country is bad, I concede I’m bad.”

Sen. Leticia Van de Putte on Gov. Rick Perry's latest ad implying challenger Bill White should be blamed for the death of a Houston police officer due to his so-called "sanctuary city" policy as mayor of the city in 2006, in a conference call with reporters: "My reaction to Rick Perry's ad, there is not an English word for it. It's called asco. It makes you gag. It's in disgust."

Jeff Rotkoff, the executive director of the Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee, on the infusion of more than $600,000 in campaign contributions from the Texas for Lawsuit Reform PAC into the campaign of Republican Marva Beck, who is trying to oust Democrat Jim Dunnam, D-Waco: "TLR is doing everything for her. If she’s being honest in her ethics disclosures, TLR has bought everything except her toilet paper.”

Contributors: Julian Aguilar, Reeve Hamilton, Ceryta Holm, David Muto and Morgan Smith

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Texas Weekly: Volume 27, Issue 41, 1 November 2010. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2010 by The Texas Tribune. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 716-8600 or email biz@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 716-8611.

The Texas House has 150 members, and all of them are on the ballot. But not all of them have races, and not all of those with races are in trouble. More than 60 percent of the people on the House ballot have either no opponent at all (63 of them), or no major-party opposition (30). The "practically elected" class includes 39 Democrats and 54 Republicans; 11 of them will be entering as freshmen. Some are unopposed: Democrats (32): Allan Ritter, Joe Deshotel, Ryan Guillen, Sergio Muñoz Jr.*, Rene Oliveira, Eddie Lucio III, Armando Martinez, Aaron Peña, Richard Raymond, Edmund Kuempel, Chente Quintanilla, Naomi Gonzalez*, Marisa Marquez, Tracy King, Mark Veasey, Eric Johnson, Rafael Anchia, Roberto Alonzo, Helen Giddings, Barbara Mallory Caraway, Yvonne Davis, Trey Martinez Fischer, Joe Farias, Ruth McClendon, Mike Villarreal, Alma Allen, Sylvester Turner, Armando Walle, Harold Dutton, Carol Alvarado, Borris Miles*, and Garnet Coleman. Republicans (31): Dan Flynn, Lance Gooden*, Bryan Hughes, Jim Pitts, Fred Brown, Lois Kolkhorst, Brandon Creighton, Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton, Dennis Bonnen, Geanie Morrison, Todd Hunter, Jimmy Don Aycock, Jim Keffer, Tan Parker, Van Taylor*, Jerry Madden, Rick Hardcastle, Ken Paxton, Drew Darby, Tryon Lewis, Tom Craddick, Charles Perry*, John Smithee, Warren Chisum, Jodie Laubenberg, Kelly Hancock, Vicki Truitt, Charlie Geren, Joe Straus, Wayne Smith, and Gary Elkins. Others have only minor-party opponents: Democrats (7): Ron Reynolds*, Jose Manuel Lozano*, Dawnna Dukes, Elliott Naishtat, Joe Pickett, Jose Menendez, and Joaquin Castro. Republicans (23): Leo Berman, David Simpson*, Rob Eissler, John Otto, Charles Schwertner*, Larry Taylor, Randy Weber, Harvey Hilderbran, Ralph Sheffield, Sid Miller, Phil King, Larry Phillips, Myra Crownover, Burt Solomons, Lanham Lyne*, Susan King, Doug Miller, Diane Patrick, Mark Shelton, Angie Chen Button, Jim Jackson, Allen Fletcher and Beverly Woolley. Those with asterisks are freshmen, and that group includes Van Taylor, who's already been sworn in to replace Brian McCall, and Borris Miles, who served one term, lost, and is now on his way back in.

Here's the Texas House list, all of them Democrats: Valinda Bolton of Austin, Ellen Cohen of Houston, Jim Dunnam of Waco, Kirk England of Grand Prairie, Stephen Frost of Atlanta, Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles of Alice, Joe Heflin of Crosbyton, Abel Herrero of Robstown, Mark Homer of Paris, Carol Kent of Dallas, David McQuade Leibowitz of San Antonio, Diana Maldonado of Round Rock, Jim McReynolds of Lufkin, Robert Miklos of Mesquite, Joe Moody of El Paso, Solomon Ortiz Jr. of Corpus Christi, Paula Pierson of Arlington, Patrick Rose of Dripping Springs, Kristi Thibaut of Houston, Chris Turner of Burleson, and Allen Vaught of Dallas.

House Speaker Joe Straus says he's now got 130 votes for reelection as speaker, saying the only change is that a House with 99 Republicans instead of 76 will be a much more conservative House. But State Rep. Warren Chisum says he will continue the challenge to Straus that he announced three weeks ago. The Pampa Republican told reporters crowded into his office this morning that the next speaker should be elected by the House Republican Caucus and said he's not convinced — in spite of Straus' claims — that the 130 members who've pledged their support to the incumbent will hold fast. "I'd just like to announce that I'm still in the race for speaker of the House. I understand that the current speaker has released his list of people that he has signed cards for. But the race is not over." Straus says it is over, and says proof is in the number of people who've pledged to support him: Less than two dozen members are still free agents. He says he's not opposed to holding the election in the GOP caucus — "that's up to the members" — but notes Chisum's opposition to a caucus election when he was toying with a run for speaker in late 2001. Another member, Leo Berman of Tyler, accused Straus of buying votes — by making contributions to the campaigns of House candidates from his own campaign funds. Straus, for instance, contributed $100,000 each to state Reps. Linda Harper-Brown of Irving and Charles "Doc" Anderson of Waco when those two were facing scandals that threatened their incumbencies. They won, and Berman now suggests those were bribes. Chisum wasn't as blunt, but didn't disagree with the idea. "I will not deny that," he said when asked about Straus giving more than he did. "He passed out a lot of money to a lot of people." Straus deflected that charge, saying simply that he has taken care to follow the state's ethics laws and adding, a little more pointedly, that he worked hard to help Republican members who found themselves in electoral trouble. The actual election of a speaker takes place in January, usually on the first day of the legislative session. Two years ago, Straus upset House Speaker Tom Craddick — even after Craddick claimed to have enough votes to win reelection. Chisum's trying those same waters, hoping that the House is as unhappy with its incumbent today — if for different reasons — than it was after the 2008 elections.

The numbers are new, the charts are different...

Rick Perry didn’t beat Bill White on Tuesday because he was more ruthless, raised more money, or looked better on television. He didn’t win because conservative voters in Texas vastly outnumber liberals or because Texas’ economy has created more jobs than the rest of the country. And he didn’t win when he tried to hand President Barack Obama a letter or when he shot the coyote with a laser-sighted pistol while jogging with his daughter’s puppy. Rick Perry won re-election because of what he did on April 15, 2009. Few remember that at the time U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison was considered a near-lock to beat him. She was stomping the incumbent in the polls by as many as 25 points thanks to her stratospheric approval ratings, and Perry looked like he was headed for the woodshed. The incumbent began to turn it around when, despite accepting $17 billion in federal stimulus money to balance the state budget, he made a great show of rejecting $556 million in federal stimulus money to bail out the state’s unemployment trust fund. This was all about posturing for the 2010 Republican Primary. Unlike the southward-facing Goddess of Liberty atop the Texas Capitol, Perry turned toward Washington, wagging a hypocritical middle finger like an ineffectual toy sword. Because he was sniffing around the anti-Washington message, he realized sooner than any other major Republican politician what a boon the tea party movement could be for him. So on April 15, 2009, when 1,000 Tax Day Tea Parties took place nationwide, Rick Perry went to three of them in Texas after he had gone on Fox News in the morning to compare the tea party rallies to the battle of the Alamo. "It is a very powerful moment, I think, in American history," he said. Later he donned a camouflage ball cap and railed against Washington to the assembled throngs, saying, “Washington needs to hear us loud and clear. Cut the spending, cut the taxes, shrink the government. And reread the Constitution." Then, in a genius stroke, he linked the anti-Washington rhetoric to Texas mythology, quoting Sam Houston, who said, "Texas has yet to learn submission to any oppression." That, right there, is how he won the election, by positioning himself as the defender of Texas against Washington oppression. Remember, this was a day in which very few major Republican politicians thought showing up at the rallies would be appropriate, and for good reason. Hutchison certainly stayed away, and she probably thanked her lucky stars when she heard that U.S. Sen. John Cornyn was booed lustily at the Austin event because of his vote for the bank bailout. Even Perry drew what the American-Statesman called “scattered boos” from toll-road opponents, but his anti-Washington grandstanding cast him as a worthy leader of this jihad, a role he embraced after the rally when asked by a reporter about his reaction to the various pro-secession signage at the Austin rally. "There's a lot of different scenarios," Perry said. "We've got a great union. There's absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that. But Texas is a very unique place, and we're a pretty independent lot to boot." My standards for a good Texas governor have fallen a bit since Ann Richards, and I’d like to think that I’d demand a Texas governor who’s steadfast in defending the Union, but I’d settle for one who knows that you can’t modify “unique.” His understanding of Texas history was as ignorant as his command of basic grammar. He covered his secession statement by claiming that Texas’ constitution allows it to withdraw from the Union if it felt like it. Pesky constitutional scholars pointed out that Texas would instead be allowed to split up into five separate states, not secede from the United States, but by that time Rick Perry had done his damage. You win elections by looking around corners, and on April 15, 2009, Rick Perry saw that the unruly mobs assembling around the country could become a powerful constituency against Texas’ most popular politician, Hutchison, as well as the Democrats’ most popular leader, Obama. By grabbing the anti-Washington mantel for himself before everyone else realized what was going on, Perry assured himself of re-election against Bill White last Tuesday. Jason Stanford is a Democratic consultant and ran Democrat Chris Bell's 2006 campaign against Perry.

House Speaker Joe Straus says he's got the votes for another term in that spot in spite of losses by more than a dozen of the Democrats who pledged to support him.Here's his press release, which came out after midnight.

Statement from Speaker Joe Straus: "On the night of this landmark election, Texas heard a resounding call from voters for continued fiscal responsibility and conservative leadership in Austin. I am proud that Republicans have gained a record number of seats in the Texas House, reversing the losing trend for the past three election cycles." "As Speaker, I congratulate every House candidate elected tonight, and I look forward to working with each member for the good of our state. I will continue to lead the Texas House in a fair and respectful way as Speaker, and at this early hour, I'm grateful to have 122 colleagues support me for Speaker, including 76 Republicans and 46 Democrats, and I look forward to visiting with more members in the coming days." Confirmed List of Pledges for Republican Texas House Speaker Joe Straus UPDATED: November 3, 2010 12:00 a.m. Aliseda, Jose Allen, Alma Alonzo, Roberto Alvarado, Carol Anchia, Rafael Anderson, Charles "Doc" Aycock, Jimmie Don Beck, Marva Bohac, Dwayne Bonnen, Dennis Branch, Dan Brown, Fred Burnam, Lon Button, Angie Chen Callegari, William "Bill" Carter, Stefani Castro, Joaquin Coleman, Garnet Cook, Byron Creighton, Brandon Crownover, Myra Darby, Drew Davis, John Deshotel, Joe Driver, Joe Dukes, Dawnna Dutton, Harold Eiland, Craig Eissler, Rob Elkins, Gary Farias, Joe Farrar, Jessica Fletcher, Allen Frullo, John Geren, Charlie Giddings, Helen Gonzales, Larry Gonzales, Veronica Gonzalez, Naomi Gooden, Lance Guillen, Ryan Gutierrez, Roland Hamilton, Mike Hancock, Kelly Hardcastle, Rick Harless, Patricia Harper-Brown, Linda Hartnett, Will Hernandez, Ana Hilderbran, Harvey Hochberg, Scott Hopson, Chuck Howard, Donna Huberty, Dan Hughes, Bryan Hunter, Todd Jackson, Jim Johnson, Eric Keffer, Jim King, Susan King, Tracy Kleinschmidt, Tim Kolkhorst, Lois Kuempel, Edmund Larson, Lyle Laubenberg, Jodie Lavender, George Legler, Ken Lewis, Tryon Lozano, J.M. Lucio III, Eddie Lyne, Lanham Madden, Jerry Mallory Caraway, Barbara Margo, Dee Marquez, Marisa Martinez, Armando McClendon, Ruth Jones Menendez, Jose Miles, Borris Miller, Doug Miller, Sid Munoz, Sergio, Jr. Murphy, Jim Naishtat, Elliott Oliveira, Rene Orr, Rob Otto, John Parker, Tan Patrick, Diane Paxton, Ken Pena, Aaron Phillips, Larry Pickett, Joe Pitts, Jim Price, Four Quintanilla, Chente Raymond, Richard Reynolds, Ron Riddle, Debbie Ritter, Allan Rodriguez, Eddie Schwertner, Charles Scott, Connie Sheffield, Ralph Shelton, Mark Smith, Todd Smith, Wayne Smithee, John Solomons, Burt Strama, Mark Straus, Joe Taylor, Larry Thompson, Senfronia Torres, Raul Truitt, Vicki Veasey, Marc Walle, Armando Weber, Randy Workman, Paul Zedler, Bill Zerwas, John *Partial Listing as of 12:00 a.m; 11/3/2010 Statements of Support for Speaker Joe Straus "Speaker Straus showed real leadership when he went to the appropriation committee hearing and said despite the budget challenges we will face next session, we will not increase taxes. I'm proud to support him for Speaker and believe his leadership will help us once again pass conservative, fiscally responsible legislation in the Texas House." - Representative Drew Darby "Speaker Straus and I are from different political parties and have different points of view, but I believe he respects all the Members and works to find common ground for the good of Texas. I support his re-election as Speaker." - Representative Senfronia Thompson "Speaker Straus earned the support of the vast majority of the Republican Caucus because he consulted with us, he worked to help us pass conservative legislation and he brought a constructive spirit to the Texas House." - Representative Harvey Hilderbran "Fiscal conservatives have a solid leader in Texas House Speaker Joe Straus. He is a true and responsible Republican steward of state government." - Representative Lois Kolkhorst "Joe Straus is a good friend. He is sensitive, fair and judicious with his treatment of all Texas House colleagues. He personifies what makes Texans proud of Texas." - Representative Aaron Peña "Speaker Straus' leadership has allowed the legislative process to work for the Texas and he has earned another term as Speaker." - Representative Rob Eissler "Joe Straus is a role model fiscal conservative. He knew that Texans were ready for a strong Republican majority and he personally worked to make it happen." - Representative Vicki Truitt "Speaker Straus is an exemplary conservative Texas leader. His integrity and commitment to leadership with civility is what separates the Texas Legislature from Washington styled politics." - Representative Jim Keffer "Members of the House felt we had the opportunity to have input and Speaker Straus had an open door. That's why I support his re-election as Speaker." - Representative Ryan Guillen "Speaker Straus made serving in the House fun again because all the Members felt they had a chance to contribute and represent the constituents who sent them to Austin." - Representative Edmund Kuempel "Speaker Straus is committed to jobs, economic growth, and fiscal responsibility and he works with Members to enact policies that are best for Texas." - Representative Byron Cook "I support Joe Straus for Speaker because he works constructively with all Members to make sure the Texas House does what is best for Texas." - Representative Allan Ritter "Leadership is an earned attribute. As my friend and colleague, Joe Straus has earned the post of Republican Texas House Speaker by achieving results for Texas and the Republican Party." -Representative Patricia Harless