Guess Which Map?

Redistricting is, for the moment, in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court, but the election season is underway.

The federal panel in Washington, D.C., hasn't held hearings on the maps. Since the filing period for candidates was looming, that panel's timing forced a three-judge panel in San Antonio to draw maps for the 2012 elections. Those came out over the Thanksgiving holiday. Attorney General Greg Abbott asked the Supremes to block those San Antonio maps, even if it means delaying some of the primaries from March to May.

That's pending.

Abbott, meanwhile, says approval of the Legislature's maps by the DC panel could erase the work done by the San Antonio panel, forcing new maps for the 2012 elections even if the Supreme Court doesn't rule for the state.

Candidate filing started Monday (see the list of people who've filed so far). The presidential and other statewide elections — and the elections for the State Board of Education, where the maps aren't being contested, will likely happen on schedule no matter what happens with the congressional and legislative elections.

There are side fights. The state accused the Department of Justice of foot-dragging. DOJ responded with a sharp letter saying the delays have more to do with the state's waiting two months after lawmakers voted on new maps to ask for preclearance, and with Abbott's decision to seek a summary judgment (which got denied) instead of accepting the DC panel's offer of a speedy trial.

It's not unusual to being bickering in December over redistricting. What's new this year is a set of federal and state laws intended to give election officials sufficient time to mail ballots and other materials to overseas citizens. The law requires more time between the start of candidate filing and elections, and more time between the primaries and the runoffs. It puts the redistricting pugilists on tighter deadlines.

Abbott's legal team suggested to the Supremes that the primaries for House and Senate and the congressional delegation could be postponed until the May 22 primary runoff date. As a calendar proposition, that would probably work. It's worth thinking about the effect on turnout, though, and on a lower turnout's effect on who wins those primaries. The Democratic and Republican faithful will turn out, for sure, but the people who come to elections for main events – presidential elections, for instance — seem more likely to vote in March than in May.

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The attached charts compare the partisan climate in current legislative and congressional districts with what it would be in the maps drawn by the Legislature and the courts.

As a result of reapportionment, Texas got four new seats in Congress, which explains the open seats. District numbers were changed in some cases, and the numbers shown are those for the current map. The TWIs are tied to each member; even if the numbers changed in the new maps, this indicates how each incumbent would be affected if they run again and if either the maps passed by the Legislature or those issued by a panel of three federal judges in San Antonio are used.

An example: U.S. Rep. Blake Farenthold, R-Corpus Christi, currently has a district with a Democratic TWI of 3.6. The average Democrat beat the average Republican by 3.6 percent in the last two election cycles. In the map drawn by the Legislature, it got a Republican TWI of 19.8, and the San Antonio judges drew a district that has a Republican TWI of 35.7.

Another one: U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin, is in a district with a Democratic TWI of 10.5. The Legislature drew him into a Republican district — the TWI is 19.9 — but the court made an even stronger Democratic district than Doggett has now, with a Democratic TWI of 28.2 percent.

In the current map, 22 of 32 districts have Republican TWIs, based on the 2008 and 2010 elections. The new plans have 36 seats. The Legislature's plan has 26 Republican seats, leaving the Democrats with the same number of districts they have in the current plan. In the court's plan, there are 24 districts with Republican indexes and 12 with Democratic indexes.

Maps and stats on the various maps are available from the Texas Legislative Council. For reference, the current plan is C100; the Legislature's plan is C185, and the Court's plan is C220. And Ryan Murphy of our staff put together geographical data on the current and court plans so you can see what happened from the statewide level all the way down to a street address.

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The maps for the Texas Senate changed the least, at least in political terms, as the Legislature and then the courts drew maps. And the Senate map remains the least competitive, in November elections, of any of the three plans. Only two districts in the maps drawn by legislators and judges had partisan differences of less than 10 percentage points.

The biggest change from the current maps to the Legislature's increase the Republican strength districts represented by Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, Chris Harris, R-Arlington, and Joan Huffman, R-Houston. For the Republicans, that was a safety move. For Davis, it was a challenge. She won her seat in a district that on paper should belong to a Republican. The Legislature wanted to strengthen it, but the judges in San Antonio redrew it so that, by the numbers, it's just like Davis' current district.

The Senate has a dozen Democrats right now, but only 11 districts where Republicans, on average, beat Democrats over the last two elections. That's the same number of districts the Democrats would get in either the Legislature's map or the court's.

The references here if you're poking around the TLC site: S100 is the current map; S148 is the Legislature's version; the court's is S164.

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The Texas House currently has 101 Republicans and 49 Democrats. Purely by the numbers, 50 of the current districts have Democratic Texas Weekly Indexes. The Legislature's version has the same number. The Court's version has 58.

The partisan stakes amount to the difference between getting beat by five touchdowns or by six.

But the maps and the numbers aren't all that scientific. You can look and see what has happened in past elections, average it, and see how one map compares to another. The new maps from the Legislature and from the courts are designed to elect more Republicans than the current map.

The electorate changes, though. The current map elected 101 Republicans to the state House in 2010, but only 76 of them in 2008. And those were weird elections in a lot of ways. Exuberant Democrats took the first and angry conservatives — Republicans and Teas and Libertarians — overwhelmed the second. The statewide average over the two elections gave Republicans an edge; the average Republican in a statewide race beat the average Democrat by 17.1 percentage points. It was lower — 8.1 points — in 2008. Last year, it was higher: 23.9.

Quite the mood swing, like the line about having one hand on ice and the other on the stove: On average, you're comfortable.

The maps change, too, or could. One reasonable line of speculation has the 2012 elections being run with one set of maps and the 2014 elections being run with another, drawn either by the courts or the Legislature or some combination.

The House maps in play are the current H100, the Legislature's H283 and the Court's H302.

2012 Primary Election Candidates: The List

In the Meantime

Lt. Governor David Dewhurst (l), talks with Sen. Dan Patrick on the floor of the Texas Senate on April 18, 2011.
Lt. Governor David Dewhurst (l), talks with Sen. Dan Patrick on the floor of the Texas Senate on April 18, 2011.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst released more interim charges he wants Senate committees to consider before the upper chamber gavels in January 2013. And it should be a surprise to few that there's a sustained focus on the Texas-Mexico border.

Emphasizing the need to stop “deadly spillover violence” from Mexico, Dewhurst charged the Senate Transportation and Homeland Security Committee with studying the effect of border violence and trafficking on the state’s economy, including the “infringement on property rights.” Dewhurst, who is running for U.S. Senate, pointedly added that Texas is filling in the holes the federal government has left open, a common Republican theme as he and the GOP party continue to assail the Obama administration over what they deem lax border-security policies.

"Washington has failed to live up to their Constitutional duty to secure our borders, but Texas has done our part," Dewhurst said in a statement. "Since 2006, the Texas Legislature has dedicated over $400 million to improve border security, including additional Department of Public Safety officers, helicopters and patrol vehicles."

The lieutenant governor also wants the Veteran Affairs and Military Installations Committee to join the transportation committee and examine how the state’s military forces – the national, state and air guards – can further their roles in statewide security.

Money laundering will also get a closer look, as the Criminal Justice Committee has been charged with reviewing existing laws to determine how to best to beef up local, state and federal statutes to combat the crime, and how best to enforce criminal actions against launderers. Dewhurst would also like the committee to team up with a joint interim committee on human trafficking to monitor how laws relating to the crime are being implemented.

Senators on the interim committee have also been asked to take a closer look at what services the local, state and federal governments make available for victims of the crime; to review procedures and services available to youths who have fallen victim to traffickers; and to take a closer look at the appropriate criminal penalties associated with the crime of prostitution.

The Senate committees have not scheduled any meetings so far. 

Inside Intelligence: Primary Election Issues

Candidates started filing for the primaries this week, so the latest nonscientific survey of political and government insiders focused on what will separate Republicans and Democrats in their respective primaries, whether the Voting Rights Act that's at the core of fights over redistricting is still necessary, and — since it popped up in a couple of candidate announcements as an issue to be addressed by state lawmakers, whether the Legislature should mandate an annual Thanksgiving football game between the Longhorns and the Aggies.

The insiders thing public education and state spending/taxes will be the divisive issues in the GOP primary, with immigration coming up more than a few times as another battleground issue. For the Democrats, state spending/taxes is at the top, followed by social issues. Several insiders mentioned tort reform as a fighting matter.

Most of the insiders think the federal Voting Rights Act is still needed to protect the rights of minority voters in Texas, but it's not an overwhelming majority.

And — because it has come up in campaign literature and candidate talks with local groups — we asked about football. Interesting, not one of our insiders chose "Don't know" when asked whether the state should mandate an annual game between Texas A&M and the University of Texas. The mandate is a bad idea, according to 89 percent. But a lot of them would still like to see the games.

As always, we collected verbatim comments from our participants and you can read the full set in the attachment. Here's a sampling:

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What issues will expose the most significant differences between Republican primary candidates?

• "God help Republican candidates who have to defend their votes on the budget and its accompanying cuts to public education. Soccer moms notice when little Janie's math class has 10 more students than last year."

• "Promises of "no new taxes" and the most conservative position on social issues will carry GOP candidates. We have returned to the 1950's on race and personal rights."

• "It's all about the money . . . and the cuts to public education . . . and how to pay for "my" priorities without raising "my" taxes."

• "Tea Party influence will dilute the importance of social issues."

• "Rs will all be for low taxes and against spending. Public ed--whether to increase funding--will be the only difference between them (on the list)."

• "There will be no differences. Candidate will stick to the winning formula; sound bites that matter to the base. "A Conservative who will Cut taxes, Reduce Spending, and Get Government out of the way.""

• "Border control and illegal immigration"

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What issues will expose the most significant differences between Democratic primary candidates?

• "Same for Ds, though Ds will not have the pressure of holding the line on spending, but rather will be expected to be knowledgeable and explain how they will target/prioritize/advocate for health and education spending."

• "These are all fundamental differences."

• "Tort Reform"

• "Whomever positions himself too early for the General will pay the price in the primary. The millionaire & billionaire 1% argument polls so well among Democrats that not adequately supporting it will spell political death."

• "I don't see Democratic primary candidates having too many disagreements on the important issues."

• "Immigration"

• "I don't think there will be enough D primary battles to get a good sample on this question."

• "The current crop of D candidates won't vary much on the big issues."

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Is the Voting Rights Act still necessary to protect minority voters' rights in Texas?

• "Yes, as long as Republicans continue to fight Hispanics rather than embrace our mutual interests."

• "Before the redistricting bills I would have said the voting rights act had accomplished its mission. The Texas Republican legislature proved me wrong."

• "With the state fast becoming a "majority minority" state there will be fewer and fewer reasons to justify continued review of voting rights. Watch out for disputes between Hispanics and African-Americans over protected classes!"

• "I think the Texas Legislature is living proof that left to their own devices they would limit the franchise and pour Clorox over the capital."

• "Not the part where judges come in and protect partisan interests, as opposed to voters rights."

• "Districts are not being drawn to prevent minorities from being elected. They are being drawn based on partisan outcomes."

• "The chief justice is black. I mean, really, we still need the a-ok from DC here? Plus, don't forget the significant investment by Rs to recruit and elect minorities."

• "Obviously there is a double standard on who the VRA is protecting. It is "OK" to protect an Hispanic Democrat, but apparently "NOT OK" to protect an Hispanic Republican. If minorities voted in the same numbers as they are registered, we wouldn't be discussing this issue."

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Should the state require Texas to play Texas A&M in an annual football game?

• "Hell no! Texas lawmakers need to stick to their core mission and not meddle in internal decisions regarding athletics. The problem with govt at the state and federal is mission creep. The leaders at UT and A&M will work it out over time, if it is best for them."

• "A pox on both their houses."

• "Idiotic question considering economic and political issues at stake. This may very well be the most important election nationally since 1860"

• "Special session!"

• "Dumb Idea"

• "The Legislature should probably stay focused on the real issues of importance for Texas.... water, taxes, public education, transportation, etc. Deal with those first and then weigh in on the lesser matters. Plus who would want to mess the wonderful outcome of the last game! Hook'em!"

• "Once the state solves issues related to revenue, education (learning not sports), health care, child services, prisons, criminal offenses, immigration and the border, and 40 other areas of concern, then and only then should they spend time deciding what we should watch on TV on Thanksgiving."

• "I couldn't imagine a less important issue to occupy their time. So, of course, that means we'll blow weeks and weeks on it."

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

The Texas Supreme Court upheld the state’s main business tax as a legitimate levy on business that does not constitute a personal income tax. The tax has been a disappointment to the state as collections have lagged behind projections, but legislators were reluctant to try to restructure it until the courts ruled on the constitutionality question.

The case against Michael Morton, wrongfully convicted of the 1986 murder of his wife, Christine, has been dropped, but the men who prosecuted him may now be facing their own legal troubles. The Texas Coalition on Lawyer Accountability has filed grievances against former Williamson County District Attorney Ken Anderson, his former assistant Mike Davis and current DA John Bradley. The group alleges that the three are guilty of misconduct and violated state law by withholding evidence in Morton’s 1986 murder trial. Morton’s attorneys successfully had his DNA tested in October, which led to his exoneration. Now his attorneys have accused the DA’s office of withholding critical information from the defense team at the time of the trial that could have led to Morton being cleared of the crime and prevented another woman from becoming a victim of the man who has now been accused of Morton’s wife’s murder.

El Paso city officials threatened with a recall election over the extension of benefits to same-sex partners of city employees must face the voters. A judge asked to review the petitions seeking the recall election has ruled that they can be used, in spite of the fact that church groups gathered signatures. Mayor John Cook had asked that those names not be allowed as part of the total number required, since the Texas election code forbids corporations from making contributions to recall campaigns. He contended that churches were corporations, albeit nonprofit, and could not legally circulate petitions. The case could proceed to higher courts, as the question of corporate contributions was reopened last year when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that corporations could make unlimited donations to campaigns.

Officials at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport are cautiously optimistic that the announced bankruptcy filing of American Airlines won’t have a traumatic effect on the facility. A scheduled renovation project is still on the books, but board members acknowledged that the future could remain uncertain until the totality of the bankruptcy filing is understood. DFW depends heavily on its relationship with American, though, and if the airline reduces its flights, there could be huge financial repercussions for the airport. Currently, American and American Eagle account for 83 percent of the landing fees collected by DFW, the biggest source of revenue for the facility.

The Bravo show Top Chef’s agreement with the state of Texas included a $600,000 break for the show to locate in San Antonio and surrounding cities. The governor’s Economic Development and Tourism Division gave $400,000 to producers of the show, and the city of San Antonio ponied up another $200,000. San Antonio and the state of Texas both insist that the economic benefits go beyond the show’s initial expenditures to include positive exposure and media coverage of the state. The bulk of the shows were filmed in San Antonio, but Austin and Dallas will also appear in some episodes.

Texas has faced all kinds of troubles resulting from the record drought this year, but there are also reports of valuable objects being found as lake levels drop. Debris like computer and car parts and sunken boats were expected, but archaeological sites have also been exposed, revealing historic cemeteries and tombstones. In Nacogdoches, a lake that receded 12 feet revealed one of the missing tanks from the explosion of the space shuttle Columbia.

Political People and their Moves

Harris County District Attorney Pat Lykos got a rude awakening after she announced her plans to run for re-election. Six police organizations, representing more than 10,000 former and current police officers, voted no confidence in her leadership, claiming Lykos has shirked her duty in the prosecution of cases. The dispute centers on Lykos’ policy of bringing only misdemeanor charges against offenders caught with drug residue of less than one-100th of a gram. Police unions want these cases to continue to be felonies, while a majority of Harris County district judges favor lessening the charge, complaining that courts are flooded with minor drug cases. And her predecessor, former DA Johnny Holmes, endorsed Mike Anderson, a Republican challenging Lykos. Anderson is a former assistant prosecutor and district court judge.

House Speaker Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, announced the appointment of Frederick "Shad" Rowe Jr. of Dallas to the Employees Retirement System of Texas Board of Trustees. Rowe currently serves as president of Rowe and Company Inc., in Dallas.

Former Austin Chronicle reporter Lee Nichols is the new communications director for Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio.

Quotes of the Week

This appears to be an accusation of private, alleged consensual conduct between adults — a subject matter which is not a proper subject of inquiry by the media or the public. No individual, whether a private citizen, a candidate for public office or a public official, should be questioned about his or her private sexual life.

Lin Wood, an attorney for Herman Cain, after Ginger White said she and Cain have had a 13-year affair

All he had to do was make a respectable showing and he would have been anointed. All he had to do was walk and talk and chew gum and he would have won it. This race was Perry’s to lose.

Conservative columnist John Podho­retz in Vanity Fair on how Rick Perry's gaffes changed the presidential contest

It’s indicative of a mind-set that’s becoming real prevalent, not only in this town, but this state, the whole country. People don’t like to be told what to do.

Rob Rea, a bar owner in Gun Barrel City, where a dispute over late-night drinking, as The New York Times reports, has incited an intense political battle

These federal disclosure reports are much more valuable (than the state reports) in evaluating the assets of politicians. This guy's rich.

Andrew Wheat, with Texans for  Public Justice, on financial disclosure statements showing Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is worth up to $225 million, to the Austin American-Statesman