Enlarge Graphic by Jacob Villanueva

Presidential election turnout as a percentage of the voting age population in Texas. (Note: 1972 was a presidential and gubernatorial election year.)

A lot of the sparse chatter this season is about turnout — whether anyone will vote and whether they'll vote early or after the Memorial Day weekend.

We'll leave the guessing to others. It's an odd date. The presidential fights are over, unlike four years ago. There isn't a hot gubernatorial primary, like two years ago. The race for U.S. Senate has been, from the standpoint of a voter looking for a heavyweight prize fight, dull. There are signs of elections around: Watch TV in Dallas-Fort Worth or look at the pileup of signs at some intersections in Pearland. But this feels more like a special election than a historic fight.

The 2008 primary turnout was weird, by all accounts. Nearly a quarter of voting age Texans — 24 percent — voted in the Republican or Democratic primary that year (Democrats outvoted Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin). That was a turnout not seen since 1988, and before that, since 1972.

Enlarge Jacob Villanueva

Gubernatorial election turnout as a percentage of the voting age population in Texas. (Note: 1972 was a presidential and gubernatorial election year.).

Most years, the combined turnout in the two major party primaries is much lower: 12 percent in 2010, 7 percent in 2006, 10 percent in 2004 and in 2002, 9 percent in 1998.

What's more, primary turnout has been on a slow slide for the last 40 years, topping 20 percent in only five of the last 21 elections. The lowest combined turnout from 1970 to 1990 was 14 percent; since then, it has reached 14 percent or more only three times.

General election turnout is steadier in presidential years, never dropping below 41 percent of the voting age population during those four decades and never going above 48 percent. It was between 44 percent and 48 percent in only one of those ten elections.

If that holds true this year, expect a turnout of around 8.8 million voters in November. In 2008, 8.1 million Texans voted.

As for the primaries, it depends. The high side, using those historical numbers, would be 4.5 million voters; on the low side (10 percent), it would be 1.9 million in the two primaries. In 2008, when 24 percent of voting age Texans voted in the primaries, 4.2 million people showed up. In 2004, only 10 percent showed up, or 1.5 million.

Special elections are generally light, but vary widely. The 1993 special that put Kay Bailey Hutchison in the U.S. Senate drew 15.7 percent of the voting age population. 

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You know the drill: We lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest in and heat generated by a particular race, then assigning each group a garish color.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk.

Orange is trouble on the front porch.

Red is trouble walking in the door.

Open seats are rated by the apparent margin between top candidates (closer is hotter). 

Incumbents are indicated with this: (i). A printable version is attached as a .pdf file.

This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust each week, based on interviews, our reporting and your feedback through the May 29 primary. Let us know what you think.

Changes this week: We downgraded races in HD-83, HD-133, and HD-146 (two notches);added the Allen/Adams in HD-131, and raised the heat levels in SD-30, HD-11, HD-98, HD-92, and in both primaries in HD-144.

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Enlarge Illustration by Todd Wiseman

Whether or not the state’s voter ID bill will be in place for the November general election is still a mystery. That’s because the U.S. Department of Justice — which is being sued by Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott’s office after it declined to approve the measure — is accusing the state of stalling the delivery of key data the federal government says is necessary for the trial.

Late last month, DOJ asked the district court in Washington D.C. that will hear the care to postpone the trial, which is scheduled to commence July 9. The feds have argued that Abbott’s office is reluctant to turn over information because it knows it will hurt its case. Abbott has argued that the request is nothing more than political theater.

“They initially requested a later trial date, knowing full well that such a late trial would foreclose any possibility of Texas implementing SB 14 in time for this year’s general election,” the AG's response reads. “Having lost the initial battle in this Court over the trial date, their fallback strategy is transparent: bombard the State with massive discovery requests.”

In an order dated May 1, the court did not sound too receptive to the Obama administration’s request.

“At this juncture, the Court is disinclined to grant the motions and is committed, if at all possible, to decide this case in time for the law, if pre-cleared, to be effective for the November 2012 elections,” the court wrote.

A status conference was held this week to allow the parties to hash out details in the hopes of proceeding with the case in a timely fashion. The court’s decision on the continuance is pending.

As the debate continues, supporters and opponents are not relenting. The conservative National Center for Public Policy Research released an analysis alleging that U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder’s attempt to block the bill is based on “flimsy research” that ignores prior U.S. Supreme Court action upholding similar laws.

“The foot-dragging, the shoddy statistical analysis and the decision to ignore U.S. Supreme Court precedent reveal either a beleaguered Justice Department incapable of maintaining a professional level of operation or a rogue agency willfully placing its weight on one side of the scale of justice,” adjunct fellow Horace Cooper wrote.

Not to be outdone, Project Vote released a study last month saying that state governments that support voter ID laws, and defend them as a means to prevent voter fraud, are a drain on resources.

The group explains that in Pennsylvania, the free voter ID cards and the voter-education programs required by that state’s law cost taxpayers between $5 million and $11 million. A provision of Texas’ law also mandates free-ID and voter-education provisions. The fiscal note on the bill indicates that had the law been enacted in January, it would have cost the state about $2 million this year.

“Those who oppose photo voter ID often say that voter ID is a solution in search of a problem," argued Michael Slater, the executive director of Project Vote. "This is true, but it would more accurate to say that photo voter ID is an expensive solution in search of a virtually non-existent problem."

Enlarge Marjorie Kamys Cotera

Texas Commissioner of Education Robert Scott answers questions at TASA midwinter conference in Austin, Texas February 1st, 2011

Texas Education Agency chief Robert Scott’s resignation Tuesday wasn't exactly a bombshell — the education community has been speculating about the long-serving commissioner’s departure for several months now.

But that doesn’t mean the speculation about who's taking his place will be quiet.

The agency is in the midst of developing a new school accountability system to go along with the standardized tests rolled out for the first time this spring. Its lawyers will be defending the Texas school finance system this fall in court. In 2013, its leader will likely once again be confronted with a dismal public education budget — but this time that will be after schools have already absorbed $5.4 billion in cuts from the last time around. 

Scott’s successor will also be inheriting an agency whose morale may be at an all-time low. Last year, it took a 36 percent budget cut and shed a third of its staff. The past legislative session did little to dispel the perception that persists among educators that the agency is impossibly caught between the political demands of the governor’s office and the needs of the some 1,200 charter and traditional school districts it oversees. Many of its top officials are approaching retirement age, meaning that the next commissioner may need to find a way to attract — and keep — new staff there.

So who will that successor be? The answer hinges on Gov. Rick Perry, and what he needs to accomplish with the appointment.

Three loosely organized factions will be watching the governor’s moves very closely: the superintendents and school board members who make up the education establishment; the homeschoolers, business groups, charter school and voucher supporters in the reform movement; and, of course, the political class. There might be an ideal candidate who appeals, or is at least palatable, to all three groups — but in all likelihood, the governor is going to need to decide which group he’s most willing to disappoint with his choice.

Before Scott, Perry and Gov. George W. Bush tended to pick either a current or former school board member or superintendent for the job. (When Scott, who has a law degree and an extensive policy background in education, took over the agency in 2007, he became the first TEA head since 1995 without a background as either.) It’s possible Perry might revert to that tradition. But he will need a strong political enforcer for the upcoming legislative session — and he might not find that as easily among a pool of candidates who've had to face making the deep cuts last time around in their own school districts.

Enlarge Marjorie Kamys Cotera

Ron Paul speaking at a rally at the University of Texas at Austin on April 26, 2012.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul won the Louisiana Caucus, picking up some steam for a tour that includes what could be a sizable rally in at the state Capitol this weekend. Paul and his son, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, are the draws on the gathering put together by a national Tea Party group.

Rick Santorum will have a major speaking gig at the state Republican convention next month. He'll talk at the convention's Friday night gala on June 8. U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, is going to be there, too, delivering the keynote speech on Saturday. But the party's frontrunner — Mitt Romney — isn't coming. The convention comes a week after the Texas primary, which doesn't add to his urgency about coming to Texas, and the Republicans don't have to worry, if recent history is their guide, about a Democrat prevailing here in November. More to the point, this is a Santorum crowd, and every presidential contender is a Romney surrogate once the general election is underway.

Gov. Rick Perry and Attorney General Greg Abbott hit the campaign trail to endorse freshman state Rep. James White of Hillister, who's in a reelection battle with fellow Rep. Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton of Mauriceville. Rumors that Perry cut an ad for White aren't true, at this point, but he's got those big names to throw around. Perry also endorsed state Rep. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, in his bid for state Senate. And Abbott threw an endorsement to Rep. Dwayne Bohac's reelection effort. Comptroller Susan Combs endorsed Marva Beck, R-Centerville, in her reelection bid.

The Texas Hospital Association PAC went the other way in the White-Hamilton contest, endorsing Hamilton in that race. Dr. Greg Bonnen got HOSPAC's endorsement in his HD-24 race. That's an open seat. The group also endorsed Rep. Chuck Hopson, R-Jacksonville, in HD-11.

The Texas Parent PAC endorsed Ed Thompson in the open HD-29 race. He served on Pearland's school board and its city council. He also picked up a HOSPAC endorsement.

The Texas Association of Realtors endorsed Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola, for reelection in HD-5, and Paul Workman, R-Austin, for reelection in HD-47.

The Texas Association of Manufacturers' PAC — MPACT — dropped a set of endorsements in Senate races, throwing support to incumbent Sens. Craig Estes, R-Wichita Falls; Robert Nichols, R-Jacksonville; Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo; and Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands. The PAC endorsed in several open seats, too, tapping Kelly Hancock, R-North Richland Hills; Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown; Mark Shelton, R-Fort Worth; and Larry Taylor, R-Friendswood. All four men are current state representatives.

The Texas Wildlife Assocaition's PAC endorsed some of the same candidates, including Nichols, Williams, Schwertner, Estes and Seliger. In addition, they'll support these incumbents: Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler; Bob Deuell, R-Greenville; Troy Fraser, R-Horseshoe Bay; Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio; and Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock.  

Seliger picked up the endorsement of the National Rifle Association.

The Texas Farm Bureau's political unit — AGFUND — endorsed Texas Supreme Court Justice Don Willett for reelection; he's being challenged by former Justice Steve Smith in the GOP primary. They endorsed Justice David Medina for reelection in his primary. In the open HD-97 seat in Fort Worth, the PAC endorsed Susan Todd.

Scott Turner, running for an open House seat in Collin and Rockwall counties, picked up an endorsement from Reps. Ken Paxton, R-McKinney, and Jodie Laubenberg, R-Parker.

The Texas Medical Association's PAC will back Jason Villalba in the open race in Dallas County's HD-114.

David Pineda, running for an open HD-144 seat, got an endorsement from state Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston.

The Texas Civil Justice League's PAC endorsed J.M. Lozano, a newly minted Republican who is seeking reelection to a seat he won two years ago as a Democrat. They also endorsed Kelly Hancock over Todd Smith in Tarrant County's hottest Senate primary.

Texans for Lawsuit Reform endorsed Rep. Jim Landtroop, R-Plainview, who's defending that seat against three challengers.

Republican State Reps. Wayne Christian of Center, Leo Berman of Tyler and Dan Flynn of Van endorsed Randy Stevenson, a former SBOE member who is challenging current member Thomas Ratliff in the GOP primary.   

Christian announced endorsements from Christian Women for America and from the Texas Municipal Police Association. 

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Rachel Van Os, running for chair of the Texas Democratic Party, on the first things she'll do if she wins.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/JlXrMI

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This week, we asked the insiders to weigh in on issues and outside influences on the party primaries, about early voting and about making it easier to vote.

The economy leads the list of issues that will determine the May 29 outcomes, according to the insiders, followed by state education spending, taxes, party affiliation, social issues and the state budget. A mix, in other words. But the top two issues outpaced everything else on the list.

The biggest third-party influences on the elections, the respondents said, will be Tea Party activists, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, and wealthy donors. It's apparent from that lineup that the insiders are thinking a lot about the Republicans on the ballot, and not so much about the Democrats.

The votes were all over the place when we asked what percentage of Texans will vote early instead of waiting for May 29; most think it will be less than half of the vote, while 44 percent think early voting will account for half or more than half of the vote.

Finally, we asked whether the state should allow online voting or some other way to make voting easier in an effort to increase participation. The insiders split right down the middle, with 47 percent saying yes and 48 percent saying no.

As always, we've attached the full set of verbatim comments to our questions. Here's a sampling:

Enlarge Ben Hasson

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What issues will be most influential in the Texas primaries?

• "I would add Speaker vote and us citizenship to the issue list."

• "Pocketbooks and checkbooks still rule at the ballot box."

• "Immigration related issues"

• "It's still the economy, Stupid.  And all issues start and end with the state budget."

• "State education spending will be front and center. It will be a keystone issue for the next election cycle. The groundwork has begun."

• "It's a presidential year. The state elections will be even more nationalized than usual."

• "Spending spending spending, remember the old quote about it being the economy, well in this case it is the spending stupid!!!!!!!!"

• "'It's the economy, stupid'.  But since we're stupid, social issues will matter too."

• "Republicans who voted for Joe Straus for Speaker"

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That third parties will be most influential in the primaries?

• "Toxic mix of Big Bidness/cartels w/keep conservatism weird movement on localized basis; again, only matters in R primary"

• "Tea Party: They are mad and they vote. It's not just a bumper sticker on their car (like so many of the other groups). They actually are and actually do."

• "Statewide, it will be wealthy donors and various groups, like TLR and TTLA.  Locally, it will be hard core partisans, like tea party folks, fiscal conservatives, and uber-liberals."

• "Tea who?  Are those people still around?  Give it up to the social and fiscal conservatives, as they'll push anything 'anti' this primary season; anti-Obama, anti-establishment, anti-incumbent, anti-federal spending, anti-women's health, anti-minority, anti-public education.  Did I leave something out?"

• "Angry public school parents, upper middle class white moms"

• "The legislature is a wholly owned subsidiary of TLR now. How do I know? I found the receipt at the Ethics Commission."

• "Light turnout will favor those with money to get their votes out."

• "The two party system in Texas has become The Tort Reform Party and The Trial Lawyer Party.  Everything else are just holdovers from a forgotten era."

Enlarge Ben Hasson

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What percentage of voters will vote early?

• "Will likely be record early turnout due to end of school activities and Memorial Day holiday all around this years election day."

• "It's the overall turnout rate that will be most depressing."

• "Because of the redistricting battle pushing back the primary election, I think most people think the election has come and gone."

• "The collapse of the presidential contest will suppress the vote.  Many campaigns are actively pushing voters to vote early.  The net effect for many parts of the state may well be > 50 % early voting (Although maybe not to that level in DFW which has several hotly contested seats)."

• "Because of the timing of the election--the Tuesday after Memorial Day--any smart campaign is trying hard to turn out its votes in the early voting period.  This, coupled with lower turnout, will drive up the early voting percentage."

Enlarge Ben Hasson

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Should the state develop online voting or some other way to make voting convenient, to increase turnout?

• "Technology doesn't impact apathy. There's no app for that, it's not a matter of convenience. We have early voting. Mobile voting. GOTV efforts. The numbers are always relatively the same."

• "Let's see . . . you have two weeks prior to Election Day.  Don't need to bring anything other than a card . . . or just say that's who you are to get a ballot.  You can vote by mail.  Make it easier?  Really?"

• "Our turnout rates are embarrassing, benefiting only incumbents and those who fund/control them. Weekend elections, same-day registration, and vote-by-mail are all options that should be seriously explored. However, the Republican powers that be do not want to run the risk of the hard-working brown masses actually exercising their franchise."

• "The state ought to allow registration/voting on the same day in primaries and general elections (early voting/election day).  We're in the 21st Century and I don't know why one needs to register one month before an election just to vote."

• "The state needs to first secure 'offline' voting before they even THINK about developing online voting."

• "Early voting is bad for democracy - it makes campaigns more expensive and uncertain without increasing turnout.  I would mandate voting centers, so that a voter could vote anywhere in the county, as we do in early voting already, and restrict early voting to mail-in absentee with an excuse, as in the old days."

• "If mail in ballots and early voting locations are not enough what is, people are just lazy.   If you cannot take a few minutes to vote but will plant your butt at a ball game for hours then please...."

• "The worst thing for this state would be for all the uninformed folks to vote.  Better to have a smaller group of folks with at least some knowledge of the candidates than a bunch of people with zero knowledge of the candidates."

• "How could it be more convenient?   You can vote 10 days in advance of the election at HEB, in some cities.  You can vote on the weekends.   Give me a break."

• "Sure and I would love to represent that vendor."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Bill Pewitt, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Bill Ratliff, Karen Reagan, Kim Ross, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Steve Scurlock, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Bob Stein, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Charles Stuart, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Gerard Torres, Trent Townsend, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, Darren Whitehurst, Michael Wilt, Seth Winick, Lee Woods, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli, Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Jenny Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Walt Baum, Eric Bearse, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Andy Brown, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, George Cofer, Rick Cofer, Lawrence Collins, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Alan Erwin, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Dominic Giarratani, Kinnan Golemon, John Greytok, Michael Grimes, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Albert Hawkins, Adam Haynes, Susan Hays, Steve Holzheauser, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Walt Jordan, Russ Keane, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Lynn Moak, Bee Moorhead, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Friday, May 4:

• Tea Party Express bus tour kicks off in Tyler (5:30 p.m.)

Sunday, May 6:

• Tea Party rally with Ron Paul, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz; Austin (2 p.m.)

Tuesday, May 8:

• Senate Health and Human Services committee meeting; Austin (9 a.m.)
• Annie's List luncheon with Sen. Wendy Davis and Sissy Farenthold; Austin (noon)
• Reception for U.S. House candidate Felicia Harris; Friendswood (6 p.m.)
• Texas Electric Generation Adequacy and Reliability Forum: The Case for a More Diversified Grid; Austin (1 p.m.)
• Bexar County District judicial candidate forum; San Antonio (6:30 p.m.)

Wednesday, May 9:

• Senate Health and Human Services committee meeting; Austin (9 a.m.)
• Fundraiser for Sen. Craig Estes; Houston (5:30 p.m.)

Thursday, May 10:

• Associated Republicans of Texas fundraiser with guest Joe Straus; Austin (5 p.m.)
• Congressional District 33 Democratic forum; Fort Worth (6:30 p.m.)

Texas Education Commissioner Robert Scott is resigning on July 2 after five years in that post. Scott, a former aide to Gov. Rick Perry, raised eyebrows  with a January speech in which he said student testing in Texas had become "a perversion of its original intent." Asked about budget cuts during the last legislative session and which parts of his agency should bear the burden, he said it was like asking "a guy on the operating table whether wants his heart or his lungs back." Perry didn't immediately name a replacement commissioner. 

Al Armendariz, the lightning-rod regional chief for the Environmental Protection Agency, resigned in the wake of comments that poured gasoline to an already raging battle between his agency and some of the Texas industries it regulates. His comments, taped in 2010, likened EPA's enforcement actions to the Roman Empire's tactics against the Turks. Their release started a week of viral video, especially among the agency's opponents. "It is kind of like how the Romans used to conquer villages in the Mediterranean," Armendariz said on the video. "They’d go into a little Turkish town somewhere, they’d find the first five guys they saw and they’d crucify them. Then that little town was really easy to manage for the next few years." No replacement has been named. 

Judge Jerry Smith of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reversed a ruling that would have blocked the state from removing Planned Parenthood from the Medicaid Women's Health Program. The state's Health and Human Services Commission said the state would "fully enforce state law today and exclude abortion providers from the Women's Health Program." Attorneys for the Planned Parenthood affiliates have asked Smith to repeal the stay in that back-and-forth case. For now, the organization is out of the program.

Amazon.com and the state of Texas cut a deal that will have the online retailing giant collecting sales taxes from customers on July 1. The company also agreed to spend $200 million on new Texas facilities that will employ 2,500 within the next four years. In return, Comptroller Susan Combs released a $269 million tax lien against the company, which had been based on her agency's estimate that the company had failed to collect and remit about $70 million annually in sales taxes over a four-year period. 

Oil and gas extraction equipment is subject to the sales tax after all, state district Judge John Dietz of Austin ruled this week. That reversed his own bench ruling; he initially indicated his ruling would go against the state and in favor of Southwest Royalties, the company that didn't think it should be paying the tax. Good numbers are hard to come by, but some estimated a ruling against the state would have cut $2 billion in refunds and about $500 million a year in the future. After his bench ruling, Dietz told lawyers he was reading the paper about a judge who undid decades of case law on sales taxes. "What fool did that?," he wondered out loud. "I'll be damned; it's me."

Add the Texas Association of Business to the list of litigants against the state's public school finance system. The business group wants the judges to look at the efficiency of the current system. They contend too few students graduate, that those who do aren't well-educated, and that increases in spending haven't produced increases in test scores or performance. The school finance lawsuits — there are several — are expected to go to trial in October.

A Texas prosecutor who sent Kerry Max Cook to death row kept the blood-soaked murder weapon as a "souvenir" of the case, according to legal briefs filed by the former inmate's lawyers. The prosecutor, now with the Texas attorney general's office, denied the allegations "in every respect." Cook's lawyers said those and other actions destroyed evidence that might have proved his innocence.

Geoffrey Orsak, dean of the Bobby B. Lyle School of Engineering at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, has been appointed the 18th president of the University of Tulsa in Oklahoma. He will assume his new position on July 1.

Chuck DeVore, a former state legislator from California, is joining the Texas Public Policy Foundation, where he'll work on fiscal policy.

Jason Embry, the Austin American-Statesman’s Capitol bureau chief, has left his post to join the communications team of Speaker Joe Straus, R-San Antonio. Embry will lead communication efforts jointly with another new hire: Erin Daly, who most recently served as communications director for U.S. Rep. Doc Hastings, R-Wash.

Houston-based Strategic Public Affairs adds Marilee Covey, who'd been at a Fortune 1000 company; she will work on government affairs and political action committee management for clients of the firm.

Arrested for alleged barratry: State Rep. Ron Reynolds, D-Missouri City. Harris County prosecutors accused Reynolds and two others of steering clients from a chiropractor to Reynolds' law firm. He denied the charges, saying he'd been "personally and politically ambushed."