Gov. Rick Perry has compared Texas Medicaid to the Titanic, but economists and business advocates from both sides of the political aisle say Texas shouldn’t let the program sink just yet. They argue the political rhetoric against the federal government should be thrown overboard and Texas should expand Medicaid under federal health care reforms because it is a practical decision for the state budget.

It's a question worth debate: Would the Medicaid expansion bankrupt or save the state budget?

When the U.S. Supreme Court ruled states had the option to expand Medicaid under federal health reform, Perry quickly announced Texas would opt out. “I will not be party to socializing healthcare and bankrupting my state in direct contradiction to our Constitution and our founding principles of limited government,” Perry said in an open letter to the federal government.

At the Texas Tribune Festival last month, Perry doubled down on his statement that Texas would lose money by expanding the program: “Medicaid is burning up 25-plus percent of our total budget in the state of Texas now, so I made the analogy, why would you want to put 1,000 more people on the Titanic when you know how it’s going to turn out?”

In contrast to that claim, some economists say expanding Medicaid would actually save state money in other areas, such as funding spent on other public assistance programs, community health centers and public hospitals.

“It is not an issue of whether Medicaid and the [federal Affordable Care Act] are perfect — they are not!” wr0te Waco economist Ray Perryman in a report titled, “Only One Rational Choice: Texas Should Participate in Medicaid Expansion Under the Affordable Care Act."

"The bottom line is that the relevant question at present is not philosophical, but practical," he wrote.

Perryman contends that for every $1 Texas would spend on an expanded Medicaid program, the state would receive $1.29 in “dynamic state government revenue.” Essentially, he's saying the state would save more money in other areas of the budget than what it would contribute to Medicaid because of the expansion.

Under the ACA, if states expand Medicaid eligibility in 2014 to include additional indigent groups, such as adults below 133 percent of the federal poverty line, the federal government will cover all those individuals’ health care costs for the first three years. After that, the federal portion would decrease to no less than 90 percent of the cost for the newly eligible groups. 

Texas currently has lower eligibility requirements for Medicaid than many states, which would have positive and negative consequences if the state chose to expand the program. Although the state would receive more federal money for the newly covered Medicaid recipients, the size of the expansion would put tremendous strain on the state’s administrative system and primary care network.

According to a report by the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured, if Texas expanded Medicaid, newly covered individuals would make up 46 percent of enrollment by 2019 and Texas would receive higher federal matching rates than most other states. The report estimates Texas’ portion of Medicaid spending would only increase by three percent or $2.6 billion, while the federal portion would increase by 39 percent or $52.5 billion.

Similarly, the Perryman report estimates that in the first 10 years, Texas would contribute $15.6 billion to the program and the federal government would contribute $89.9 billion.

But Perry’s aides point to a presentation by the Health and Human Services Commission which emphasizes other factors that could raise Medicaid costs for Texas. For example, Texas will be required to raise primary care provider reimbursement rates to the same level as Medicare rates for 2013-2014. The federal government will cover the costs of the reimbursement increase for those years, but if Texas chose to extend the higher rates beyond 2014, it could cost the state an additional $595 million in general revenue through fiscal year 2017.

“The state would still have to cover all of the administrative costs,” Lucy Nashed, a Perry spokeswoman, said in an email.  

Others argue state spending on the program will increase with or without the Medicaid expansion, because of the federal mandate for all individuals to acquire health insurance by 2014 and the so-called “woodwork effect” this provision will create.

In the New England Journal of Medicine, health policy economists at Harvard University explained the “woodwork effect” could encourage an additional one million Texans who are currently eligible for Medicaid to enroll in the program — to come out of the woodwork — because federal reform requires everyone to acquire health insurance by 2014. 

Still, the authors of that report conclude that savings in uncompensated care could offset the more obvious expenses associated with federal health care. While states “are clearly in a fiscal bind in which Medicaid plays a large role, and several features of the ACA seem to worsen the budgetary outlook,” they wrote, “this perspective may be short-sighted as the federally subsidized expansion of Medicaid will replace outlays for uncompensated care that largely come from other parts of state budgets.”

John Hawkins, senior vice president for government relations at the Texas Hospital Association — which is in favor of the Medicaid expansion — said in September that Texas hospitals have already absorbed $14 billion in federal funding cuts to help finance federal health reform. “If we don’t take advantage of [the federal reforms], that money would potentially go to other states or just lapse,” Hawkins said. 

Bottom line: Federal health reforms will have a tremendous impact on the state budget, Medicaid and the state’s primary care network, regardless of the expansion. Although Texas would need to commit additional spending for Medicaid, an expansion would likely save some money in other areas of the budget. But whether or not Texas expands the program, lawmakers will have to make adjustments to the program to accommodate changes caused by federal health care reform.

Editor's note: This article originally stated Texas would have to raise primary care reimbursement rates to the same level as Medicare rates if the state expanded the Medicaid program, but that measure will be required whether or not Texas expands Medicaid.

With oral arguments out of the way, the waiting game now begins as the U.S. Supreme Courts considers the Fisher v. the University of Texas at Austin case, which challenges the institution’s use of race in some admissions decisions. 

A ruling is not expected until sometime in the spring of 2013, which means the 83rd regular session of the Texas Legislature could be well underway before its effect on UT’s admissions policies are known.

Lawmakers may opt to tweak current laws in anticipation of the decision or to wait to find out if the ruling requires any response. Either way, there’s a growing sense that lawmakers might revisit the state’s “top 10 percent” rule — a 1997 law that allows automatic admissions to Texas residents who graduate in the top ten percent of their high school class.

The top ten percent law itself was a creative means to create diverse institutions of higher learning without the use of affirmative action, which at the time had just been disallowed by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. In 2003, the court ruled that race could be used narrowly as a minor factor in admissions decisions in an effort to create a “critical mass” of minority populations on campus; whether UT has been doing this properly is what is currently at issue.

Since the implementation of the top ten percent rule, the demand for automatic admissions at UT has grown increasingly overwhelming. It was projected that by 2013, 100 percent of Texas residents admitted to UT would come from automatic admissions under the law, leaving no room for institutional discretion.

The university sought a legislative fix, and in 2009, the Legislature demonstrated its willingness to mess with the “top 10 percent.”

Under Senate Bill 175, authored by state Sen. Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, lawmakers allowed UT — and only UT — to limit its automatic admissions to 75 percent of the incoming class. The remaining 25 percent of the class is culled from a pool of applicants that are evaluated holistically in a process that includes race as a minor factor.

According to the bill author’s statement provided to the Senate Research Center at the time, lawmakers felt that “a university needs the flexibility to consider criteria other than high school rank, such as test scores, special talents, leadership ability, personal achievements, or other relevant aspects of what the student can offer the academic environment.”

But an amendment was attached requiring that, if a court decision or board of regents decided that race could not be considered among those factors, UT could no longer cap its automatic admissions. Former Rep. Veronica Gonzales, D-McAllen, who added the amendment, said it was intended to hold administrators to their word.

"I knew that the commitment of the University of Texas had been to be able to have a diverse campus. But administrations change and the laws change, we knew there was always that possibility that a court case could undo the good we believe has been done through diversity," she said, adding that she hopes the court will affirm UT's current policy.

With the very real possibility that such a decision is in the offing, lawmakers may need to reconsider their approach or risk ending up with exactly what they attempted to prevent: an entire UT class decided solely based on GPA.

After Wednesday’s arguments before the Supreme Court, UT President Bill Powers told reporters he intended to working with lawmakers to address automatic admissions, but he hedged on the influence of the impending ruling on that effort.

“Automatic admissions has been an issue in almost every legislative session,” he said. “Exactly how that ought to work, I would anticipate that will be an issue. The outcome of [the U.S. Supreme Court’s] decision may affect the nature of that law. So, I would intend to be working with legislative leaders whatever the outcome of this case is.”

Bryan Shaw, the chairman of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, said he has already had two "productive" telephone calls with Ron Curry, the new regional head of the Environmental Protection Agency, and said he never got ever that far with the previous chief.

Speaking at an environmental law conference in Austin this week, Shaw said that the two had agreed to improve communication and would meet in person later this month or early in November.

“I had two more productive conversations with him than I had with the previous administrator,” Shaw said at a panel discussion of Texas versus the EPA at the Environment, Energy, and Resources Law Summit of the American Bar Association.

Curry, a former New Mexico environmental regulator, took over as the Dallas-based Region 6 Administrator for the EPA on September 24. His predecessor, Al Armendariz, resigned in the spring after comparing his enforcement policy for oil and gas to the way ancient Romans would “crucify” Turks. 

Asked by David Smith, the panel moderator and an Austin-based lawyer with Graves Dougherty Hearon & Moody, whether he was cautiously optimistic about the TCEQ-EPA relationship, Shaw replied: “I’m cautiously optimistic. I am a glass half-full kind of guy.”

The EPA and Texas have had an adversarial relationship, with the state suing the EPA over numerous regulations — sometimes successfully, as in a federal court’s recent strike-down of the cross-state air pollution rule, and sometimes not, in the case of greenhouse gases.

The ABA panel covered the Texas versus EPA disputes, and deep and predictable disagreements emerged between Shaw and another panelist, Vickie Patton, the general counsel for the Environmental Defense Fund. Patton argued that Texas’ rhetoric opposing the EPA was overheated and sometimes amounted to a “tirade”; Shaw insisted that the EPA needed better science behind its rules and should allow Texas more flexibility in devising methods to meet federal standards.

In a discussion of pollutants, Shaw also argued for the benefits of “incentivizing….energy efficiency,” as a means of reducing pollution and improving technology.

Voter registration is over for this election — now it's up to the campaigns to convince people to get up and vote. The competitive races are relatively static. What was hot last week remains so this week, and so on. Here's the latest Hotlist.

This week, we shine a light on upcoming debates, voter registration, whether Medicaid expansion will cost or benefit Texas, and we'll get a first look at campaign finance reports filed 30 days before the election.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/UPZcZg

We took a dip into legislative politics this week, asking the insiders about the race for Speaker of the House, the influence of outsiders on those inside races, about the nature of the Legislature, and about last week's new committee assignments in the Texas Senate.

The insiders were close to unanimous on the future of Speaker Joe Straus, with 96 percent saying he'll be elected to a third term as speaker when lawmakers convene in January. Only 3 percent put their confidence in Rep. Bryan Hughes, the Mineola Republican who's mounting a challenge to Straus.

Outside groups and activists might make noise, but they don't have any real influence on the race for speaker — at least in the eyes of the insiders. Only one in four thinks the outsiders have real influence in who presides over the House, while 70 percent say the outsiders are just that — outsiders.

We asked which chamber of the Legislature will be more likely to approve of "hot-button" bills during the 2013 session; slightly more than half pointed to the Senate, while 27 percent said the House would be more likely and about one in five called it a jump ball.

Finally, we asked the insiders to play pundit and analyze Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's choices for committee chairs since he announced a reorganization last week. You can read selected comments to that and to the other questions below — a full set is attached.  

Who will win the race for speaker in January?

• "But it won't be pretty. And before it's over there will be others that will be trying to see if they can pull together a deal with the demos."

• "Right wing pressure isn't great enough yet to dislodge a speaker who's done a good job for his members."

• "Joe Straus has the advantage of a district that understands the wisdom of having a hometown Speaker.  Let MQS bluster, the Speaker is safe at home and will remain Speaker as long as he so desires."

• "It will be difficult to keep some of his votes together. Dick Armey will mobilize the grassroots and some will jump ship, but in the end the Dems will stick by him ensuring him the victory."

• "There is no speaker's race.  Some people are trying to create the appearance of a speaker's race for their personal benefit and ulterior motives, but that doesn't make it the real deal."

• "Would everyone please stop asking this already?"

• "I thought this was a done deal until Freedom Works got into the game.  They wrecked Dewhurst's US Senate effort and might do the same in a Speaker's race."

• "Democrats should pick their own Speaker candidate, act like a real opposition party and leave the Republicans to eat their own. But alas, they will get suckered."

• "Straus survived in 2011 after a wave election ushered in a large number of new very conservative members. While he lost some lieutenants in this year's primary, some potentially adversarial members also lost. Plus, there will be 6 or 8 new Democrats in the House in 2013. Where else are they going to go?"

• "If 'someone else' was going to enter the race, he/she should have done so before Freedom Works backed Bryan Hughes."

Will outside groups and activists have any real influence on the outcome of the Speakers' race?

• "Right wing groups will make life difficult for Republican members.... some won't be able to withstand the pressure"

• "Tread lightly, FreedomWorks.  Those eligible to cast a ballot in this race are not the same as the gullible right-wing base of the GOP.  Texas legislators will resent your efforts to pressure them.  Well, the reasonable ones will anyway."

• "Many consultants and companies are using their personal relationships with candidates and newly elected legislators to actively promote Straus' record and effective leadership."

• "They will make life miserable for everyone involved, but they will not be successful."

• "The threat from the Right will continue to push Straus to the Right, but it will not be enough to unseat him. Simpson in '15, however, is another matter."

• "Any outside group/activist who can influence a legislator's constituents can influence a legislator's vote for Speaker."

• "They barely influence each other.  Spend and borrow Republicans and tax and spend Democrats. God, please don't elect someone with a brain or an open mind!"

Which chamber will be more likely to pass 'hot-button' bills next session?

• "The senate is a forgone conclusion to pass all their anti bills next session; anti-public education, anti-poor, anti-public health, anti-voting rights for minorities..."

• "The amount of crazy coming out of the Senate will be astounding."

• "House is more likely to pass them quicker. And while the new makeup of the Senate will have more empathy for those bills, as long as the 2/3rds Rule is around, those hot button bills will take a little longer."

• "Depends on Wendy Davis and if the 2/3 rule is suspended"

• "2/3rds rule is history."

• "Passing any significant measure requires the help, direct or indirect, of the person in charge.  The presiding officer of the Senate seems to have more incentive to cater to the 'hot button' end of the spectrum, as well as a new-found willingness to do so."

• "Who'd a thunk we'd look to the house for temperance."

• "Trick question? Like the senate has killed a bill at any point in living memory?"

• "DD has no reason to hold back on far right craziness. Straus will be the reasonable man he is, except for a few bills."

• "With Davis likely gone and Dewhurst stacking the deck on committees, prepare for some wild bills from the upper chamber."

• "Once that stuff gets to the floor, a majority will be sufficiently afraid of primary challenges that they won't dare to vote no.  And in the Senate, it's possible that a majority might be all that's needed - depending on the future health of the two-thirds rule."

• "Plenty of crazies in both chambers.  Finally."

Be the Pundit: What’s your take on the Senate committee assignments announced last week?

• "Dewhurst is sticking with his 'conservative' values espoused during the recent US Senate campaign by naming Patrick to chair Senate Education and Seliger to Higher Education.  Eliminating the Senate IRT Committee and removing Sen. Zaffirini away from Higher Ed is a big blow to the Democrats as whatever 'partisanship' existed in the East Chamber is now gone."

• "It's an indication that vouchers will pass the Senate and Rick Perry's assault on the University of Texas will receive a thorough hearing in the Senate."

• "Dewhurst caves yet again to emerging ultra-conservative majority.... he hastened to placate key members before they could organize and strip him of some powers"

• "Dewhurst adapting to the shift of power that is coming with the new Senators. If he is going to be taken seriously as a 2014 re-election contender then he has to make this shift. The committee member assignments in a couple months should be even more evidence of this shift to the right. If he doesn't tilt certain committees to the right then he'll leave his flank wide open to attack from conservative groups."

• "Hell hath no fury like a Zaffirini scorned."

• "Zaffirini finally reaps what she sows."

• "The Dew made a technical error trying to go to the right. 1) He has already been labeled as a moderate by the Republican base. It doesn't matter what he says or does, he will always be to the left of the base; 2) He has empowered those that will most likely threatened his re-election; and 3) He has relinquished most of his power and won't be able to govern. Has anyone acquired knowledge from studying the ways of Lt Guv Bullock?"

• "Don't think the pendulum can swing any further to the right without gravity starting to its pull.  Yes, it will take a while, but this looks like an overreach."

• "Committee Chair changes accurately and fairly reflect the changes in the Senate membership and in the Republican Party."

• "After losing so badly in the primary, it appears that Lt. Gov. Dewhurst is covering his right flank to help keep his 2014 options open. That said, it is unlikely to be enough to protect him from the stable of statewide R's gunning for his post."

• "School vouchers will be on deck."

• "Perry 1/ UT 0. Sad day for Texas"

• "Dewhurst stacking blinked. Rather than trying to turn the tide of extremism, he grabbed a surfboard. Major mistake. Tea Partiers will never accept him and he empowered a huge rival in Patrick."

• "Lt Gov Dewhurst to GOP voters: message received."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Cathie Adams, Jenny Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, David Anthony, Jay Arnold, Louis Bacarisse, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Walt Baum, Dave Beckwith, Rebecca Bernhardt, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, James Clark, Lawrence Collins, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Rebecca Flores, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Kinnan Golemon, Jim Grace, Kathy Grant, John Greytok, Jack Gullahorn, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Adam Haynes, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Laura Huffman, Kathy Hutto, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Carl Isett, Cal Jillson, Jason Johnson, Karen Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Dale Laine, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Myra Leo, Elizabeth Lippincott, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Parker McCollough, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Tom Phillips, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Bill Ratliff, Tim Reeves, Kim Ross, Jason Sabo, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Bradford Shields, Dee Simpson, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Jeri Stone, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Trent Townsend, Trey Trainor, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Lee Woods, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Friday, Oct. 12:

• Fundraiser for Rep. Eric Johnson; Mattito's, Dallas (11:30 a.m.)
• Fundraiser for Rep. Jim Pitts; Warwick Melrose Hotel, Dallas (4-6 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for Rep. Susan King; Warwick Melrose Hotel, Dallas (4:30-6:30 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for Sen. Bob Deuell; Warwick Melrose Hotel, Dallas (5-7 p.m.)

Saturday, Oct. 13:

• Noche Azul with Julián Castro, Joaquin Castro and Garnet Coleman; Art Village on Main, McAllen (6 p.m.)
• Harris County Democratic Party's Brunch and Hat Show; Omni Galleria, Houston (10 a.m.)

Monday, Oct. 15:

• Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to appear at Hispanic Republicans of Texas event; Hayes & Boone, Dallas (5:30-6:30 p.m.)
• House Public Health Committee hearing (9 a.m.)

Tuesday, Oct. 16:

• Ralph Sheffield Golf Tournament; Wildflower Country Club, Temple

Thursday, Oct. 18:

• House Culture, Recreation and Tourism Committee hearing (10 a.m.)
• Senate State Affairs Committee hearing (9 a.m.)

Senator Dan Patrick, R-Houston, has declared that the 2013 Texas Senate will be “the most conservative in the history of the state,” a sentiment shared by many Capitol insiders. While we do not yet have the data to fully evaluate Patrick’s historical claim, we can say this: A review of comparable House and Senate roll call vote data confirms that the 2013 Senate will be more conservative than its immediate predecessor.

Election Day is still almost four weeks away, but due to the partisan design of the 31 Texas Senate districts, we have known for some time who 30 of the 31 senators in the next session are likely to be, with only one district, Tarrant County’s SD-10, truly in play this fall. Depending on the outcome in SD-10, where the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Wendy Davis, is being challenged by Republican Rep. Mark Shelton, there will either be 19 or 20 Republicans and 11 or 12 Democrats in the Senate in 2013.

All of the 11 Democrats virtually certain to be elected in November are incumbents, as are 14 of the 19 Republicans. Since we can assume that the ideological profile of these 25 senators has not varied noticeably over the past two years, their presence will not result in any change in the Senate’s overall ideological profile.

Any ideological shift in the Senate therefore depends on whether the five new Republicans are on average more or less conservative than their five respective Republican predecessors and on whether Shelton defeats Davis. While it is not possible today to accurately predict a winner in the Davis-Shelton race, it is possible to compare the ideological orientation of the five departing GOP senators with that of four of the five Republicans replacing them.

Four Republican senators chose not to seek re-election this year and are being replaced by four fellow Republicans who served as representatives in the 2011 Texas House: Steve Ogden of Bryan by Charles Schwertner of Georgetown in SD-5, Florence Shapiro of Plano by Paxton in SD-8, Chris Harris of Arlington by Kelly Hancock of North Richland Hills in SD-9, and Mike Jackson of La Porte by Larry Taylor of Friendswood in SD-11. In the fifth replacement case, Sen. Jeff Wentworth of San Antonio was defeated in the SD-25 GOP primary by Donna Campbell of New Braunfels.

During the 2011 legislative sessions there were 38 instances where the Senate and House each held a non-lopsided roll call vote on an identical piece of legislation. These 38 “bridge-votes” create a rough measure of the 2011 ideological location of every senator and representative (except the Speaker of the House, who by custom generally refrains from casting roll call votes). Given the relatively small number of votes upon which this measure is based, it is not as accurate as those which include all non-lopsided votes in the Senate and House respectively, but it does allow for a comparison of legislators using a common metric.

The Bridge Scores of potential senators who will assume office in 2013 range from a liberal extreme of -1.62 (Rodney Ellis, D-Houston) to a conservative extreme of 1.23 (Ken Paxton, R-McKinney). Among the four pairs of arriving and departing senators who all served in the 2011 Legislature, each incoming senator has a more conservative score than the senator he is replacing.

In two cases (SD-11 and SD-9) the differences are relatively modest, with Taylor’s Bridge Score of 0.33 only slightly more conservative than Jackson’s 0.30, and with Hancock’s 0.68 not all that much greater than Harris’s 0.57.

In the other two districts (SD-5 and SD-8) the differences are more pronounced. Schwertner’s Bridge Score (0.73) is noticeably greater than that of Ogden (0.52) while Paxton’s score (1.23) is substantially more conservative than Shapiro’s (0.90). It is worth noting that Shapiro was one of the Senate’s more conservative members in 2011, underscoring the reality that in Paxton, the two most conservative senators in 2011, Patrick (1.07) and Brian Birdwell, R-Granbury (1.19), will encounter a serious rival for the title of most conservative senator in 2013.

In the other case of Republican replacement, SD-25, Campbell will be taking the place of Wentworth. Unlike her four near-certain future freshman colleagues, Campbell lacks a legislative voting record. It is nonetheless safe to say that her ideological profile is notably more conservative than that of Wentworth, the least conservative Republican senator based on these 38 votes, with a Bridge Score (-0.09) much closer to that of the two most conservative Democrats, Sen. Carlos Uresti of San Antonio (-0.28) and Sen. Juan “Chuy” Hinojosa of McAllen (-0.35), than to a majority of his Republican colleagues.

The most dramatic ideological shift between the senators representing the same district in 2013 and 2011 would be occasioned by a Shelton victory over Davis in SD-10. Shelton’s Bridge Score (0.39) would place him in the center of the Republican Senate delegation, quite a move to the right from Davis’s position near the liberal end of the ideological spectrum (-1.11).

This analysis supports the thesis that the 2013 Senate will be more conservative in its composition than the 2011 Senate. When combined with the lessons learned earlier this year by Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, the Senate’s presiding officer, about the risks of being viewed as insufficiently conservative when competing in a Republican primary election, it appears more than reasonable to expect a notably more conservative Texas Senate in tenor and policy content in 2013.

Mark P. Jones is the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s Fellow in Political Science and the chairman of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.

The deadline for registering to vote in the upcoming election was marked this week by a flood of applications. While the Bexar County elections administrator said this year’s registrations won’t reach the level seen in 2008, the office was still working overtime to process the applications. Other counties also reported dramatic increases in their workloads as the cutoff approached. 

Tom DeLay got yet another day in court this week, appealing his convictions on conspiracy and money-laundering charges to three judges on Austin's 3rd Court of Appeals. Both sides think that'll go up another step — to the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals — when this court rules. That case started with DeLay's efforts to finance what turned out to be a big Republican election year in 2002. If the conviction sticks, he's already been sentenced to three years in prison. 

Recent rains have eased drought conditions in Texas, but two years of trouble have planners in parts of West Texas pondering their future. Several towns in the Permian Basin area had come within months of running out of water completely before the latest rain replenished the reservoirs they count on. Counties were confronting the necessity of trucking in water. Now they face a reprieve and are planning new ways to get their water that aren’t so dependent on surface reservoirs that tend to experience extreme evaporation.

New Texas Education Commissioner Michael Williams is speaking out about the cheating scandal in the El Paso Independent School District. Former Superintendent Lorenzo Garcia was recently sentenced to three-and-a-half years in federal prison for overseeing the manipulation of students and their test scores to inflate the district’s ratings. Williams called the actions of school administrators a civil rights violation, citing instances in which students were not admitted to struggling schools or were encouraged to leave so the schools’ test scores wouldn’t suffer. The FBI is still investigating, and has given the district the green light now to do its own investigation.

Some Texas schools are using radio frequency identification tags embedded in ID cards that students wear on lanyards around their necks. The cards can track record students' whereabouts on campus or off, giving schools more accurate attendance records to present to the state for reimbursement. Schools are also requiring that students use the nametags to check out library books, pay for their lunches and even to register. Some students and parents have raised privacy concerns. 

When David Michael Hartley was shot to death on Falcon Lake two years ago, authorities were unable to recover his body or charge anyone with the killing. But the Mexican government announced this week that it has arrested and charged a 31-year-old, high-ranking member of the Zeta drug cartel with the murder. Alfonso Martinez Escobedo is accused of numerous killings in northern Mexico and had a $1 million bounty on his head. 

San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro’s pre-K initiative is racking up some major contributions in the San Antonio business and philanthropic community. The campaign’s latest finance report shows it has collected more than $363,000 since July 1. The proposal will be on November’s ballot, and the group promoting it plans to spend the money on a TV ad campaign blitz. If the initiative passes, it will be funded by a one-eighth-cent sales tax increase, and opposition to the measure has mainly come from conservative and Tea Party affiliated groups.

September revenues from sales taxes were up 11.5 percent from the same month last year, according to the comptroller's office, a promising signal that lawmakers may have more to work with as they try to craft a budget next year. It was the 30th straight month of sales tax collection growth.

Kay Ghahremani, deputy director of Texas' Medicaid and CHIP programs, has been named director — succeeding Billy Millwee.

Gov. Rick Perry tapped Texas Railroad Commissioner David Porter as the state's official representative to the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission. 

Perry also appointed Martin Broussard of Beaumont and Ray Callas of Beaumont to the Jefferson and Orange County Board of Pilot Commissioners.

The governor appointed Nathan "Jim" Bell IV of Paris, Monty Johnson III of Amarillo, and Billy "Mayfield" McCraw II of Telephone to the Red River Authority of Texas Board of Directors. Bell is owner or Nathan Bell Realtors. Johnson is a rancher. McCraw is owner of Hope Plantation Turf and McCraw Materials.

The governor tapped Glenn Martin of Edna, president of M.O.R., Inc., for a spot on the Lavaca-Navidad River Authority Board of Directors. 

House Speaker Joe Straus named a late interim committee to look at the $4.9 billion in dedicated general revenue accounts that are used to balance the budget rather than for the specific programs for which that money was set aside. Reps. Drew Darby, R-San Angelo, and John Otto, R-Dayton, will co-chair the panel.

After nearly four years as a legislative liaison at the state's Department of Transportation, Wendy Reilly is joining TechAmerica as director of state government affairs for the southern region — a job Jeff Clark held until he joined the Wind Coalition. 

Democrat John Courage picked up an endorsement from the San Antonio Express-News in his SD-25 race against Republican Donna Campbell.

Nancy Dickey resigned as president of the Texas A&M Health Science Center and vice chancellor for health affairs at the A&M University System, where she's been for the last 11 years. E.J. "Jere" Pederson, the former COO of the UT Medical Branch in Galveston, will come in as acting head while a search takes place.