Enlarge Graphic by Todd Wiseman

Federal redistricting judges in San Antonio want to see if they can get agreement from the parties on political maps in time for an April 3 primary and said they are "giving serious consideration" to split primaries if no agreement can be reached by the first week of February.

The three federal judges will meet with the parties this afternoon (Friday) instead of waiting until February 1, as first planned.

The five-page order setting up the meeting is full of dates and deadlines:

• The judges said they will almost certainly move the candidate filing deadline now set for February 1.

• They said the parties should confer and submit agreed-upon interim maps for legislative and congressional elections by February 6 if they "wish to maintain the current election schedule." If they can't agree, the judges want a list of districts in the Legislature's maps that each party no longer objects to.

• The parties are involved in hearings in Washington, D.C., where a separate panel of three federal judges is deciding whether the Legislature's maps violate preclearance provisions of the federal Voting Rights Act. Ideally, the San Antonio judges would have that court's ruling in hand before it approves redistricting maps. It's asking the lawyers to give the Washington court a nudge: "With high respect for the importance of that proceeding and the prerogatives of that court, this Court hereby requests both sides in the San Antonio proceedings to request, on behalf of this Court, that the D.C. Court attempt to rule on the Section 5 issues in time for this court to incorporate those decisions into its ultimate decision on the redistricting plans for the 2012 elections for the Texas House of Representatives, the Texas Senate, and the U.S. Congress."

• The Texas judges say they are giving "serious consideration to whether a so-called 'split primary' will be required" for this year's elections, and asked the lawyers to be ready to talk about it at the end of the week. They also want lawyers for the state to be ready to say whether the state would be prepared to reimburse counties and the political parties for the "substantial additional expense of a split primary."

• The judges asked for comments on the idea of a presidential primary on April 3 with most or all other elections held later. The earlier presidential primary would relieve the Republican and Democratic political parties, which hope to have the primary elections well before their state conventions in June. The Republican Party of Texas has suggested the split primary on several occasions; the Democratic Party, in filings this week, said it would prefer a unified primary if possible.

The Texas judges adopted interim maps for congressional and legislative elections last year, but the U.S. Supreme Court ruled last week that they didn't give proper consideration to maps that were approved by the Legislature and that are awaiting the approval of that other federal court in Washington, D.C. That ruling means the San Antonio judges need to come up with a new map before elections can be held. At issue now is whether they should wait until the Washington court is finished.

The state is urging the court to try to hold the elections on April 3, as scheduled. Local election administrators from around the state have told the judges they need final maps by the end of the month to hold that election.

Enlarge Illustration by Todd Wiseman

The U.S. Department of Justice is keeping Texans guessing as to whether they will have to furnish photo IDs before casting their ballots. But a fresh lawsuit has spurred a new round of mudslinging directed at the law's Republican backers.

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott on Monday filed suit against DOJ and U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder in hopes that a federal court will put Texas’ voter ID law, written by Sen. Troy Fraser, R-Horseshoe Bay, into effect. The measure has been stuck since July. Under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, the federal government reviews laws that affect voters and elections, and the state and DOJ have been tussling for months over whether Texas has supplied adequate information to prove that the measure won’t disenfranchise elderly and minority voters.

The feds want information about an estimated 605,500 Texas voters who do not have a state-issued license or ID, and about how many of them have Spanish surnames. The same information was requested for registered voters who have valid IDs.

Federal review under the Voting Rights Act can come either from the DOJ or from the federal district courts in Washington; since DOJ isn't moving, the state is trying to move the Voter ID review to the courts.

“The U.S. Supreme Court has already ruled that voter identification laws are constitutional,” Abbott said in a statement. “Texas should be allowed the same authority other states have to protect the integrity of elections. To fast-track that authority, Texas is taking legal action in a D.C. Court seeking approval of its voter identification law.”

The move prompted a swift response from Rep. Trey Martinez-Fischer, D-San Antonio, the outspoken leader of the Mexican American Legislative Caucus. And he went ahead and threw a not-so-subtle jab at Gov. Rick Perry, who deemed the measure an emergency item last year.

“I am happy to know General Abbott is learning from his mistakes in redistricting and is pursuing a dual track preclearance submission. I am disappointed, however, that he has adopted in his complaint the persona of a tough-talking Texan making back-handed threats to federal judges in Washington, D.C.,” Martinez said.
 “I will remind General Abbott that Texas arrogance didn't play well on the national stage and it is my guess there is only so much bigotry federal judges will tolerate from an Attorney General who tries his cases with press releases.”

Added Steven Maxwell, the chairman of the Tarrant County Democratic Party: “Texas Republicans have skipped preclearance procedures (mandated by the Voting Rights Act) of their Voter ID law with the Department of Justice. While this is legal, they are doing so because they know it is very unlikely the DOJ will allow this law with its resulting voter suppression in Texas.”

At least one Democrat, though short of endorsing the lawsuit, said it could backfire on the GOP. Sen. Rodney Ellis, D-Houston, said the action could actually prompt a faster rejection of the law.

“It's … essential that any change to our elections, especially one that will disproportionately affect minority and poor voters, receive the appropriate review from the Department of Justice. I believe any litigation to speed up that decision will only result in its quicker rejection,” he said in a statement.

Meanwhile. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst issued a defense of Abbott’s actions, saying that "the only thing that Texas' voter ID law seeks to suppress is illegal voting, and Texas has a Constitutional responsibility to defend the rights of millions of law-abiding voters by ensuring fair elections in our state."

The Department of Justice has until March to issue a ruling on the state’s law.

Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

Gov. Rick Perry at his last campaign stop of 2011 in Boone, Iowa, on Dec. 31, 2011.

With Rick Perry’s star-crossed courtship of the national Republican electorate now ended, our attention turns — mercifully, some might say — back to the politics of his Texas re-entry. The governor returns to find Texas politics roiled, the electoral system in a state of flux as a result of a redistricting process that has run off the rails. Internecine conflict in the Texas GOP, already in evidence when the governor left to run for president, has increased with the inexorable approach of the party primaries.

The underlying fundamentals that buttressed Perry's political power in the state are not much changed since his departure for the national campaign trail, and these fundamentals suggest that Perry, if he wants to, will reassert his powerful presence in Texas politics now that he is back.

Worlds Away: Where We Left Off

In a universe without a Perry presidential candidacy, the politics of 2012 in Texas would largely be framed by the governor’s policy dominance in the last legislative session. The two sessions of the 82nd Legislature ended with the governor and his allies having achieved most of what they wanted in the legislative realm. The Legislature, for the most part, danced to the music of the Tea Party orchestra conducted by an ascendant governor, fresh from embarrassing a sitting U.S. senator in the GOP primary and yawning his way to a victory over another soon-to-be-forgotten Democratic candidate.

In the Legislature, social conservatives won a raft of sought-after measures, from the voter ID bill to mandatory sonograms and the defunding of Planned Parenthood. Fiscal conservatives won big, too, from the avoidance of facing up to the defective margins tax to a budget that slavishly followed a no-new-revenue dictum and relentlessly curbed spending for social programs and education. The sanctuary cities debacle — they were unable to pass the bill pushed by the governor — stood out as an unfortunate glitch to be blamed on lack of time and a few recalcitrant legislators.

When the Legislature decamped from Austin in July, there was a sense of order in Texas politics. For all the dark grumbling about the smoke and mirrors that enabled the powers that be to declare the budget “balanced,” and even taking into account the public objections of Democrats (and the more private reservations of moderate Republicans) to the stingy treatment of education and services for poor people, there was political clarity. The governor and his allies had boxed the Legislature in, and lawmakers behaved accordingly, allowing for the usual displays of internecine maneuvering, ego-driven flare-ups, tweaks for the big powers in the lobby, and sniping and gamesmanship between the chambers.

And yet, a mere seven months later, conditions on the ground in Texas border on the chaotic.

Redistricting, several open seats created by retirements and a rash of primary challenges to incumbents have fueled a mood of uncertainty hanging over the Legislature and, in the longer term, a 2013 legislative session that already promises to continue the grinding tone of the last Legislature. Infighting in the GOP ranks and an electoral system in flux pose no direct threat to the governor’s political position, but there is unrest in his political family.

Part of the governor’s claim to political fame going into his bid for the nomination was his skill in managing his increasingly unruly coalition in both the electoral arena and in the Legislature. Those skills will be put to the test again now. But the familiar faces and the advantages of playing on his home turf should be a relief after deflecting Mitt Romney’s opposition research operation and jockeying for position with Newt Gingrich et al. to be the anti-Mitt. He may, however, have to work on his image with one of his most reliable assets, the conservative base of the GOP.

Perry and Support From GOP Voters

There is no sense in minimizing the apparent short-term negative impact of the governor’s time in the national arena on his assessment by Texans. His political strategy here hinged on maintaining his appeal to the various factions of the Texas GOP, with little or no regard to accommodating Democrats, independents or the minute number of crossover voters in the state. He has assumed this will be a politically divided state with a stable GOP majority, and expended little effort trying to be a “uniter,” to borrow a term. Consequently, the governor cultivated no willingness among leading Texas Democrats and independents to transcend partisan politics and rally behind a native son in a presidential election simply because he is a Texan. For all his frequent invocations of his Texas identity, Texans not already supporting Perry were absent during his presidential bid.

Potentially more of a problem for his return to Texas, those who have supported him for governor did not automatically support his bid for the presidency. A mid-January survey by Public Policy Polling found Perry weak among Texas Republicans, losing to both Gingrich and Romney. In the October 2011 University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll, it was evident that Texans not already supporting Perry were not rallying around his presidential race – only about 3 percent of those supporting Perry in a hypothetical 2012 matchup with President Obama were self-identified Democrats, and he only attracted the support of 23 percent of self-identified independents — only a slight increase from the 19 percent of independents who approved of his job performance as governor in the same survey.

Both polls revealed signs that his presidential campaign might have soured some Texans’ views of him. His 39 percent overall job approval in October was in line with previous trends, but his negatives inched up steadily during the preceding year, from 37 percent in October 2010 to 44 percent in October 2011. While his lackluster showing in the October survey was widely chalked up to the Herman Cain media boomlet, it’s also plausible, if undiplomatic, to point out that the results showed no signs of a bottomless well of affection among Texas Republicans. One week before he dropped out of the race this month, Perry was running third in his home state, at 18 percent, behind Romney at 24 percent and Gingrich at 23 percent.

The possibility that his national campaign has actually dampened enthusiasm for the governor lurks in some of the other results. When we asked in October whether Perry’s presidential campaign had helped or hurt Texas’s image in the rest of the country, very few respondents thought that the governor had a positive effect. As the table below illustrates, only 19 percent thought Perry’s candidacy had helped Texas’ image, while 37 percent thought it had hurt the state’s image and 34 percent said the Perry candidacy had no effect.

Source: UT/Texas Tribune Poll, Oct. 19-26, 2011, N=790, MOE: +/- 3.46 percentage points. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding and weights.

It’s not surprising that these results express the expected partisanship responses toward the governor: Strong Democrats were eight times more likely than strong Republicans to say his campaign had hurt the state’s image, and virtually no Democrats viewed it as having a positive impact on Texas’s image.

But Republicans were hardly effusive in their assessments of how the governor’s campaign reflected on the image of his home state: More of them said Perry’s campaign had no effect on the state’s image than than said it had a positive effect. Even among strong Republicans, typically a redoubt of Perry strength, 44 percent opted for “no effect” versus 36 percent opting for a positive effect. PPP used a nearly identical version of this question in their January survey, and got similar results, though slightly worse for Perry: 13 percent said the campaign had helped Texas' image, 39 percent said it hurt and 45 percent said it hadn’t made a difference.

Anti-Washington Blowback

Hostility to the federal government in Washington, D.C., in general and to the Obama administration in particular have played a central role in Perry’s political identity. However, this did not prove to be fertile soil in which to germinate a national campaign for federal office, especially from the perspective of Texans who have spent the better part of the last three years hearing the governor rail against all things federal and assuring them he had no desire to leave Texas for such foul environs.

The anti-Washington theme of the 2010 campaign against Kay Bailey Hutchison, along with the vitriol (and lawsuits) aimed at federal regulatory agencies that dared to act in Texas, also undermined Perry’s effort to make the trip to Washington himself. Perry is far from the first national candidate to run against Washington, D.C., even as he asks voters to send him to live there to fix it; it worked pretty well for Barack Obama four years ago.

But unlike then-Sen. Obama, Perry has railed against not just “the folks in Washington, D.C.” His opposition has been much more fundamentalist, even if the phrase “states' rights” was quietly purged from his presidential campaign rhetoric. That adjustment notwithstanding, the governor spent many a Texas campaign speech and the better part of his book Fed Up fuming about the modern conception of a strong national government, and vehemently arguing for the inherently superior democratic virtues of state government.

That stand on federalism and Perry’s candidacy for national office generated dissonance on the ground in Texas. His effort to rebrand himself as an “outsider” in the national nomination race was a hard sell for a three-term governor to make in his home state. When asked to rate on a scale of 0 to 10 how well a list of traits fit Perry in the October UT/TT poll, “outsider” generated the lowest mean score among the options offered (2.74), while a 7.1 mean score for “career politician” was second only to the 7.4 for “conservative.” Perry may literally be from somewhere outside of Washington D.C., but in the larger political sense, Texans don’t buy him as a political outsider.

The governor's national campaign may have cooled the core of the Texas GOP base, left them scratching their heads at the spectacle of the dominant elected official of the last decade presenting himself as a rampaging outsider, or just had them laughing ruefully at his pratfalls.

He does not have to face the voters any time soon – perhaps not ever again. Perry aide Ray Sullivan sounded a bullish tone at Perry’s farewell press conference, hailing the bright prospects of future campaigns for both governor and president. It was hard not to interpret this as a signal to the political audience in the state that the governor should not be discounted as a lame duck. There is plenty of work to be done in Texas, including a legislative session, before Perry has to decide whether he has the desire to woo the voters again.

In the meantime, his relationship with the voters may be in a rut, but when it comes to the legislators, business interests, and interest groups who practice politics every day, to borrow from George Costanza, the governor has a lot of hand.

Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

Gov. Rick Perry delivering his stump speech during an early morning campaign stop in Sioux City, Iowa, on Oct. 8, 2011.

Whatever Rick Perry's election plans for two or three years down the road, a clear-eyed look at the situation in Texas in the wake of his presidential bid suggests that the unflattering narrative of the campaign trail won’t define the governor’s return to Texas politics. He returns to a dominant position in state government, largely unaffected by negative perceptions of him picked up in polling in the state and amplified coverage of the Texas newspaper survey in the field Jan. 21-24.

The dings in his national image are unlikely to prevent Perry from picking up where he left off as a dominant force in Texas politics. Texas newspapers tout their latest statewide poll results with the claim of “Perry’s lowest approval rating in 10 years of polling.” This questionable presentation of the facts (repeated here, here, here, here, and here) is likely to feed questionable interpretations of the governor's strength when he resumes active governance of the state.

In fact, Perry’s approval numbers dipped below 40 percent in at least four surveys during the 2010 election cycle. In UT/Texas Tribune surveys in October 2009, February 2010, and February 2011, the governor’s job approval ratings were at 36 percent, 38 percent and 39 percent respectively; a Public Policy Polling survey in June 2010 that found the governor’s job approval at 36 percent jibed with this trend.

These readings came as Perry was mounting successful campaigns against GOP primary challengers Kay Bailey Hutchison and Debra Medina, and general election opponent Bill White, and preparing to go into what was, from the governor's standpoint, a successful legislative session. So the idea that latest job approval numbers unambiguously indicate that that Perry is distinctly weaker as he returns to the governor’s chair is questionable.

This isn’t to say the governor is at his peak. The Perry team is already moving to combat its weaknesses and to reoccupy its previous position of considerable strength in the state. The governor is pushing back against the notion he may be a lame duck by sending signals that he might run for re-election. There is skepticism about the reality of this pushback. Some see the appearance of sheer naked ambition in seeking a fourth full term as prohibitive; and then there’s the matter of Attorney General Greg Abbott’s bulging campaign account and what would seem to be his flagging patience with what amounts to “waiting his turn.”

But political actors with skin in the game are unlikely to openly rule out another campaign while the governor remains entrenched. Lame duck or not, Rick Perry is still the Republican governor of a strongly Republican state. He exercises substantial influence over the levers of government, and remains in good stead with those in the business community affected by state policy. The news media has gained no new tools for outmaneuvering a politician who has, for the most part, run circles around them. There still exists mostly a vacuum in the space that should be occupied by a meaningful political opposition. The only substantial obstacle to his reoccupation of the commanding heights of Texas politics would be his own lack of desire or some failure to perform.

The Governor and the Texas GOP

If enthusiasm for the governor was dampened by his foray into the presidential nomination fight, the electorate in Texas remains dominated by voters who identify overwhelmingly as conservative and Republican. The low points of the national campaign will not be completely forgotten by the state news media and his Democratic critics, but they will become old news and fade in significance as the governor reasserts his more familiar image. Texas voters were skeptical of Perry’s presentation of himself as an outsider but still relatively firm in their judgment of him as a conservative: If he can’t storm the ramparts of the national GOP as an outsider, he can still hold the fort in Texas as a Republican stalwart.

Even if he remains diminished to some degree in the eyes of the public, the systemic assets that have increased his political strength over the last decade — leadership of institutions, support from a broad swath of business and private sector interest groups, the ability to count on a mixture of carrots and sticks with both the factions of the state GOP and an increasingly inexperienced Legislature — remain intact. His appointees still preside over the agencies, boards and commissions that dominate the day-to-day administration of state government.

Even as his presidential campaign fizzled, he added more than $1 million to his state campaign account, anchored by large contributions from longtime supporters including Bob Perry, the home construction magnate (no relation). There doesn’t seem to be much reason to view the flocking of legislators and lobbyists to Iowa in the final days of 2011, when the governor’s campaign was clearly the longest of long shots, as an indication of either boundless optimism or mass delusion. It makes a lot more sense to view these pilgrimages as gestures to be remembered when the business of politics and government resumes in Austin, when the particulars of the crappy hotel rooms and small crowds of Iowa are comparatively distant memories.

The divisions within the Texas GOP that Perry has so skillfully managed over the course of his governorship remain tricky, but are unlikely to be fatal in the short run. Center-right GOP legislators, most prominently Speaker Joe Straus, have occasionally suggested openly the need to revisit the “margins tax,” with the implicit message that the state needs to consider increasing revenue.

Many insiders viewed Straus’ comments about revenue and revisiting the margins taxed as a notable signal; anti-Straus factions pounced on it as sign of apostasy and a fresh opportunity to question his conservative credentials. On these and other issues, the organized right continues to work hard to displace less conservative actors through groups like the archipelago of organizations clustered around Empower Texans, which continue their barrage of criticism of Straus and any legislators, candidates and even consultants who disagree with their radical brand of fiscal and social conservatism.

But with Perry's return, Straus’ comments about revenue in the run-up to the next session could provide cover for the governor to act. Perry has demonstrated creativity in such situations before: In 2006, he tapped Democrat and former rival John Sharp to head the commission that recommended refashioning the old franchise tax into the current margins tax. One might question how that has worked out, but the governor got away with it then, and twice won re-election.

Perry has skillfully managed such internecine conflicts as the fight over revenue and conservative orthodoxy in the past, and the Legislature will again require such management when he returns. The temporary coalition between center-right Republicans and Democrats that got Straus elected speaker in 2009 was not necessary for the speaker's re-election in 2011, and it is in the governor’s interest to keep it that way. That re-election took place despite the very public efforts of Empower Texans and a loose coalition of Tea Party-affiliated groups.

Although there is an undercurrent of tension between the governor and the speaker, Perry can be expected to manage this pragmatically. The emergence of Democratic influence in a makeshift governing majority in the Legislature is the solution of last resort for everyone involved, including Straus, and more importantly, the freshmen legislators who will return for the 83rd legislative session in 2013 after their first re-election campaigns. With the wreckage of the presidential campaign behind him, reducing the need to toe the “no new revenue” line at all costs, and the Tea Party surge incorporated into the GOP and diluted at the grassroots, Perry and Straus and whoever is lieutenant governor will have more room to maneuver, and are likely to take a slightly less draconian approach to the budget, however much the radical fiscal conservatives in and out of the Legislature glower and threaten.

Managing News Media

In addition to skillful management of the various facets of GOP politics, effective management of his coverage in the news media was also a key component of Perry’s success in the sunnier times before the presidential primary campaign. The approach to the news media that served the Perry 2010 campaign so effectively was disastrous on the national stage, but will likely work for the Perry team upon the governor’s return. The Perry campaign had perhaps grown a little spoiled by the Texas GOP audience, which readily accepts the casting of the news media as liberal surrogates even as the Texas press, seemingly unable to avoid being cast in the role as a kind of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, broadcasts messages to the faithful while remaining oblivious to the larger machinations around them.

Perry now returns to the smaller, more conservative Texas media universe. Texas Republicans, as I’ve suggested, will close ranks again around the governor and largely grant forgiveness for the sins committed during the campaign. The audience in Texas remains distinct from the national audience that quickly seized on the cartoon-version of the governor as a right-wing bumbler in boots and then relentlessly propagated it in late-night monologues and the YouTube-Tumblr-Twitter-verse. Texas has many fewer liberal wags to dub new voices into a hundred YouTube videos making fun of Perry’s “Brokeback Mountain” jacket.

With broad if not deep Republican support and without a Democratic opposition capable of a sustained, visible response to counter the governor’s efforts, Perry’s team will probably be able to reassert is management of coverage in the Texas media.

The State of the Opposition

The dynamics of media coverage in the state are of course facilitated by the general inability of the Democrats to sustain much more than sporadic and regional political opposition. The absence of a sustained, effectual political opposition has left the playing field, and the “news,” such as it is, largely shaped by the allied organizations of the GOP.

Which brings us, inevitably, to the state of the Texas Democratic Party. The basics of its sclerosis are well rehearsed, though one feels compelled to recap them in any general assessment of why Perry doesn’t face many obstacles to picking up where he left off. The long Democratic electoral drought has meant not only being shut out of both elected and (crucially) appointed positions in government; it has also meant the withering of the popular roots and organizational resources of the Democratic Party in the state.

The 49-seat Democratic delegation to the House is a historic low watermark, and although the GOP tide may recede somewhat in 2012, beyond the circles of the true believers, professional fantasizers, and outright BS artists, there is little hope of a meaningful near-term Democratic resurgence that would produce a Democratic legislative majority.

The Democrats are relegated to guerilla warfare and the occasional opportunity to outmaneuver and perhaps temporarily shame GOP lawmakers. The Democrats are learning to bear up under these depressing circumstances — state Rep. Donna Howard’s brief success adding an amendment to the fiscal matters bill last year to allocate surplus Rainy Day Fund money, later stripped out by the Republican leadership, comes to mind — less a victory than a brief spark in a pretty dark space, but a sign of life nonetheless.

Successful Democratic efforts to counter GOP hegemony in general and to meaningfully challenge Perry’s authority in particular have been very few and far between, and the presidential campaign has not changed the playing field. While Democratic operatives have clearly enjoyed sending out voluminous emails detailing the governor’s record and berating his national campaign as his fortunes have turned, they seem unable to translate Perry’s failure on the national stage into concrete electoral or policy benefits at home in Texas.

There are other signs of life as organizations dedicated to rethinking the Democratic enterprise in the state struggle for traction and to cultivate young talent. But it is a daunting effort to recover from decades of decline (how many decades is a matter of debate, like everything else among Texas Democrats), a shrunken resource base, internal rot and a problematic relationship with the national party. In the meantime, most of the consequential political action takes place among the scheming factions of the Texas GOP over which the governor once again presides.

So Rick Perry’s reign will continue, and barring a collapse in his morale or some cataclysmic turn of events — say, apes beginning to speak just as a deadly virus wipes out the human race — he will return to lead his followers, reward his allies and loyalists, and vex and punish his detractors. He might still be a punch line among his opponents and critics, but he remains embedded in a powerful structure of institutions and relationships skillfully constructed over more than a decade in office, largely impervious to blowback from his national campaign. The jokes might flow — but my guess is that they will mostly be told behind his back, and as the jokes get less and less funny, the governor and his allies will have gone back to executing the one thing on their list of things to do: Running the state.

One thing is pretty easy to remember.

Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

Ted Cruz and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, right, at a U.S. Senate candidate debate on Jan. 12, 2012.

U.S. Senate candidate Ted Cruz raised $1.1 million for his Senate bid during the fourth quarter, which left $2.9 million in his campaign treasury at year-end. Federal candidates don't have to report their numbers until the end of the month, but Cruz said the results mean he raised about as much so far — just over $4 million — as Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (so long as you don't count money Dewhurst has contributed to his own campaign). Dewhurst announced his numbers last week; neither of those Republicans has released a copy of the full reports that will go to the Federal Election Commission next week.

Cruz also picked up an endorsement from the Tea Party Express, which bills itself as the biggest PAC in the country that's associated with that movement.

• Former Arkansas Gov.-turned-pundit Mike Huckabee will be at Southfork Ranch next month for a fundraiser for the McKinney Christian Academy. That's a non-political event, but state Rep. Ken Paxton, who's running for state Senate in Collin, will be part of the proceedings.

• Democrats running for the open U.S. Senate seat in Texas start well behind their Republican competitors, according to Public Policy Polling. That outfit tested four Republicans against two Democrats (six Republicans and four Democrats short of a full ballot, by the way) and said that right now, either of the Democrats would lose to any of the Republicans by at least eight percentage points. Dewhurst would beat Democrat Paul Sadler by 18 points and Sean Hubbard by 17, the pollsters said. Republican Craig James, the least popular of the candidates on that side of the aisle, would beat Hubbard by eight points and Sadler by ten. Tom Leppert and Cruz both won their fantasy matchups by ten points or better. None of the Democrats, the pollsters said, were as well-known to voters as the Republicans. The survey of 700 voters (by automated phone calls) was done January 12-15 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.

• The Promesa Project, an effort by Texas Democrats to engage young Latinos, is putting paid staffers on "at least" 11 college campuses around the state to register voters, get them involved in Democratic campaigns and then to get out the vote when it's time for elections. They've targeted the University of Texas campuses in Austin, El Paso, Arlington, Pan American, San Antonio, and Brownsville; the Texas A&M campuses in Corpus Christi and Kingsville; the University of Houston main and downtown campuses, and the University of North Texas Dallas campus.

• Harris County Judge Ed Emmett will head the Republican Party's statewide coordinated campaign, a job that ordinarily falls to a statewide elected official.

• State Rep. Randy Weber, R-Pearland, wants Ed Thompson to follow him in the Texas House. Weber is leaving to run for an open congressional seat and endorsed Thompson, Pearland's former mayor pro tem, in the HD-29 race to succeed him. Thompson will face Debra Rosenthal-Ritter in the Republican primary. Weber is one of ten candidates signed up for that congressional race; new redistricting maps could change that field.

• Sen. Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo, picked up an endorsement from the Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC in his reelection bid. He's got a GOP primary challenger from Midland, Randy Rives.

• Jim Herblin, a Prosper Republican challenging Sen. Craig Estes, R-Wichita Falls, picked up endorsements from former Sherman Mayor Harry Reynolds, from former Corinth Mayor Shirley Spellerberg, from Kay Copeland of Denton County, a former member of the State Republican Executive Committee, and from Denise McNamara, former Republican national committeewoman from Texas.

• Scott Turner, running for the Texas House in a district in Collin and Rockwall counties, picked up endorsements from Cathie Adams, David Barton, and Kelly Shackleford, the heads, respectively, of the Texas Eagle Forum, Wallbuilders, and the Liberty Institute. The endorsements are from the individuals, not the groups.

• Pat Carlson gave up the presidency of the Texas Eagle Forum to run for the Texas House from Fort Worth. She's followed in that post by her predecessor, Cathie Adams, who left the job to be chairwoman of the Texas GOP.

• Matt Rinaldi, one of several Republicans running for an open seat in North Dallas County (where Rep. Jim Jackson, R-Carrollton, is retiring) got top grades on the National Rifle Association's report card; the group's endorsement doesn't necessarily go with that grade, and in this case, they haven't publicly named a favorite. Mac Smith, a Republican running in HD-85, also got the group's top grade, without an endorsement, as did James Wilson, R-Tomball, who's challenging Rep. Debbie Riddle in the GOP primary.

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The insiders think Ron Paul's biggest obstacle is Ron Paul, are pessimistic about Texas Democrats, and predict Democratic primaries focused on education and Republican primaries focused on spending and taxes.

We started off by asking why Texas congressman Ron Paul can't into the front position in the GOP presidential primary. The overwhelming answer? His ideas, according to 78 percent of the insiders. Another 6 percent blamed his age (Paul is 76 years old); 4 percent put the blame on his competition, and 1 percent blamed the media.

We asked when Texas Democrats will become competitive in statewide elections (they haven't won one since 1994). A scant 3 percent of the insiders think this is the year. Another 23 percent say it'll be 2014, 26 percent say 2016, and the rest — 48 percent — say they don't know.

Education will be the dominant issue in Democratic primaries this year, according to 48 percent of the insiders. The economy, with 17 percent, was next, followed by state spending, and health care/human services. Money topped the Republican issues, with state spending getting 28 percent, while 20 percent said taxes will be the big issue and another 20 percent said the economy will be the big issue. Immigration and education came next.

As always, we left space for the insiders to comment and have attached a full set of their verbatim answers. Here's a sampling:

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What is Ron Paul's biggest obstacle in the GOP primaries?

• "Wish I could combine several of these, because I think his age and ideas tie into the media narrative that has dismissed him. While his ideas really are not that out of touch, the media decided that they are, and that has sadly impacted his campaign. However, when he is on the stump and in front of voters face-to-face, he wins them over. He has a loyal and dedicated following, but it won't be enough to win the nomination."

• "He is far to intellectual for the majority of voters, yet for those that listen he articulates something that nearly everyone believes and also fears."

• "A lot of Republicans love half of what Paul has to say and hate the other half."

• "Way too out there on wars and foreign relations"

• "Actually, this needed an all of the above option."

• "His "cereal" supporters--there are too many fruits, flakes, and nuts in that bowl."

• "Ron Paul is simply out of step with the great majority of Republican primary voters. His following, while loyal, is limited."

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When will Texas Democrats be competitive in statewide elections?

• "Demographic/voter studies since the 80's have been pretty accurate as to shifts in voting trends thus far (see Rs in early-mid '90s); those same studies have consistently pointed to ~2014-2016 as the point where Ds take back statewide offices. While the economy and other national events might have slowed some of this shift, esp for working class whites, the Rs certainly aren't doing much if anything to slow the continued solidification of the Hispanic voting bloc, so the voting trend predictions should generally hold."

• "For the first time in a long while, there may actually be a window of opportunity for the Ds. And this time, the window may actually be open — just a bit, though."

• "Not until they find a way to be pro-business, particularly small business in some way; find some message other than trial lawyer supplied messages."

• "Dem failures are tied to structural and financial issues rather than ideology. With a strategy and a means to turnout the base vote, we will be competitive."

• "The pendulum is swinging back to Blue."

• "Not anytime soon."

• "They won't be competitive until they strike a more centrist tone with independents and the business community. And it would help if they found a source of funding that does not come from the trial bar"

• "Republicans have had a steady 12 point advantage for the last decade or so and that will come down slowly. How slowly depends on the growth of Hispanic involvement. It's at least 10 to 15 years out."

• "When Hispanics start to vote in their numbers."

• "What is a Texas Democrat?"

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What will matter most in this year's Democratic primaries?

• "Electability and local issues"

• "Highly variable--there is also a throw the rascals out insurgency that is in both primaries but will be a function of local candidates and conditions"

• "Jobs and the economy are important and key issues for the Democrat and Republican voters this election cycle. Job/Economy, Education, Immigration and Health Care will be the issues that matter to the Latino voters."

• "It'll be the holy trinity of the Dems: health care/human services, education, and protecting racial and ethnic minorities. You can't expect to win in a Dem primary without heavily emphasizing each of those equally."

• "D primaries aren't very competitive this year -- Nothing to fight over."

• "Jobs"

• "The democrats' constituents have a higher unemployment rate than the general population. It should be jobs, jobs, jobs."

• "The Republicans handed the Democrats an enormous gift when they carved up the public schools."

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What will matter most in this year's Republican primaries?

• "My head hurts when I try to figure out what Texas Republican primary voters will do in statewide races, let alone in local district races."

• "Economy. Taxes. Holding the line on state spending. Don't see the Rs ordering new hymn books for this election."

• "The same social issues since 1994 (god, gays, guns) + Obama."

• "Abortion and immigration"

• "Education from one set of challengers, taxes and spending from another."

• "Jobs"

• "Trying to sound conservative without appearing clueless about how they're going to pay for the next budget after the state loses the education finance lawsuits."

• "The Republicans ran against Obama in an off-year. They won't be able to help themselves this time around. It will be Obamageddon all the time."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, Doc Arnold, Jay Arnold, Louis Bacarisse, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Walt Baum, Eric Bearse, Leland Beatty, Dave Beckwith, Rebecca Bernhardt, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Andy Brown, Lydia Camarillo, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Mindy Carr, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elizabeth Christian, Elna Christopher, George Cofer, Rick Cofer, Harold Cook, Randy Cubriel, Hector De Leon, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Alan Erwin, Gay Erwin, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Neftali Garcia, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Thomas Graham, Kathy Grant, John Greytok, Jack Gullahorn, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Albert Hawkins, John Heasley, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Billy Howe, Laura Huffman, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Robert Jara, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Phillip Martin, Dan McClung, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Steve Murdock, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, John Pitts, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Bill Ratliff, Kim Ross, Jason Sabo, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Steve Scurlock, Dan Shelley, Christopher Shields, Dee Simpson, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Charles Stuart, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Trent Townsend, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Michael Wilt, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

STAAR, the new standardized student testing system Texas is scheduled to take up this spring, has parents, school administrators and even lawmakers still questioning the state's readiness. How to use the results of the exams is up to individual school districts, but parents are voicing concern about districts planning to use students' scores to count for up to 15 percent of their final grades. The tests could even become a factor in students' eligibility to graduate on time. The first STAAR tests will be administered in March.

Wielding a search warrant, state and federal investigators descended on a health care agency in Mission owned by former Rep. Sergio Muñoz Sr. Raids on home health care companies usually result from investigations into their dealings with Medicare and Medicaid, but investigators didn’t give any details of the charges that may be forthcoming against the agency. Muñoz served in the Texas House from 1993 to 1997; his son, Sergio Jr., is currently the representative for District 36.

Texas mayors were divided on the issue of same-sex marriage at a U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting this week. Houston Mayor Annise Parker and Austin Mayor Lee Leffingwell joined 76 of their fellow mayors from across the nation in promoting equal rights for gay couples, calling marriage a civil rights issue and saying that cities could benefit economically. The mayors of Dallas and Fort Worth, Mike Rawlings and Betsy Price, didn’t sign the pledge, with Price saying the issue was one for the state, not cities, to address.

Reacting to a dramatic drop in prices, the second-largest U.S. producer of natural gas, Chesapeake Energy, said it will cut its drilling in the Barnett Shale by half. A boom in shale drilling has led to a glut of natural gas and caused prices to hit a 10-year low. Other drillers are expected to follow Chesapeake’s lead.

Two companies with operations in the Texas Panhandle face sanctions by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. ConocoPhillips has been charged with excessive emissions at its refinery in Borger and is facing a fine of $19,750. Magnum’s violation was topping the visible emissions standard when it failed to control dust around its plant. It could be liable for a fine of $12,100. The TCEQ will take up enforcement of the orders on Feb. 8.

The town of Robert Lee got a grant from the Texas Water Development Board for an emergency pipeline that will run 12 miles and give the town access to water from Bronte. The town's only source of water, the E.V. Spence Reservoir, is sitting at 0.44 percent capacity. Snyder, which gets its water from Lake J.B. Thomas, is also watching the supplies dwindle. The lake used to provide water not just to Snyder but also Odessa and Big Spring. Now that it’s down to about 2 percent capacity, the town has also had to construct a pipeline into other existing water supplies. Without a new source, the town was predicted to dry up by June.

Galveston placed its entire 12-person traffic division on leave this week pending the outcome of an internal investigation, then allowed seven of them to return to work. Mike Dricks, who headed up the division, resigned, although he characterized his departure as retirement and didn’t acknowledge any familiarity with the investigation. The city’s investigation is said to center on employees' work hours and whether any laws were broken as a result.

Strip club owners need a new angle on their challenge to a $5-per-patron state tax levied against their businesses. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected their argument that the so-called pole tax violates their First Amendment rights to freedom of expression. Passed in 2007, the tax has raised less than expected to fund rape crisis centers and provide funding for sexual assault survivors.

Texas’ law prohibiting 18- to 20-year-olds from carrying concealed weapons got a boost in federal court as a district court judge dismissed a National Rifle Association suit. The judge said that the state’s motive for banning the under-21 crowd from carrying concealed handguns — public safety — was enough to justify the law.

Houston’s public library foundation is creating a formal corporate donation program, and it’s paying off. After watching its budget shrink from $37 to $32 million over the last two years and losing about 20 percent of its workforce, the library this week received a $100,000 donation from Comerica Bank to help fund its after-school programs and technology needs. At the ceremony honoring the gift, Houston Mayor Annise Parker challenged other Houston businesses to contribute to civic institutions. The city’s oil companies pitched in last summer to keep eight public swimming pools open.

Keith Ingram is the new elections chief at the Texas Secretary of State's office, replacing Ann McGeehan, who left in December after 16 years in that post. Ingram was most recently a manager in the governor's appointments office; before that he was a general business lawyer in private practice.

Gov. Rick Perry is back, making appointments:

• John B. Walker of Houston to the Texas Tech University System Board of Regents. Walker is president and CEO of EnerVest Ltd.

• Joe Edd Boaz of Anson as district attorney of the 259th Judicial District Court in Jones and Shackelford counties. Boaz is an attorney in private practice, a former Jones County attorney and the chief of trial teams for the El Paso County District Attorney’s Office.

• Sheri Krause of Austin chairwoman of the Texas Historical Commission and Robert “Bob” Shepard of Weatherford to the commission. Krause is managing partner of JBS Holdings and the former development director for the Settlement Home for Children. Shepard is a rancher, retired American Airlines pilot and former air traffic controller.

• Three members to the Texas Medical Board, including Carlos Gallardo of Frisco, a senior manager of recruiting at DynCorp International in Fort Worth; William “Roy” Smythe of Belton, chairman of surgery and medical director for Scott and White Healthcare’s Office of Innovation and a professor and chair of surgery at the Texas A&M Health Science Center College of Medicine; and Paulette Southard of Alice, a retired teacher and community volunteer.

• Three members to the State Committee of Examiners in the Fitting and Dispensing of Hearing Instruments, including William McCrae of San Antonio, president and owner of Beltone Audiology and Hearing Aids; Jesus “Jesse” Rangel Jr. of Longview, owner of Beltone Hearing Aid Center and a licensed hearing aid dealer; and Barbara Willy of Sugar Land, former senior manager of operational excellence for Siemens Hearing Instruments North America Headquarters in New Jersey.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst appointed four members of the Texas Senate to the Medicaid Reform Waiver Legislative Oversight Committee: Sen. Jane Nelson, R-Flower Mound; Sen. Bob Deuell, R-Greenville; Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston; and Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas.

Speaker Joe Straus announced additional House appointments to the Joint Interim Committee to Study Human Trafficking: Reps. Sergio Muñoz, Jr., D-Mission, and Debbie Riddle, R-Tomball.

Jason Gibson, president of the Houston Trial Lawyers Association, is staffing up for his bid for the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate nomination. Ed Espinoza, a former western states political director at the Democratic National Committee, has signed on as general consultant and campaign manager. Kirsten Gray, the press director at the Texas Democratic Party for the past two election cycles, will serve as communications director. Houston-based strategist Keir Murray, who’s worked on campaigns for former Rep. Nick Lampson and a couple of Houston mayors, is political director. Jason Stanford, who managed former Rep. Chris Bell’s 2006 gubernatorial campaign, is the chief research consultant.

Deaths: Former Rep. Al Price, D-Beaumont, a civil rights activist and airline pilot whose addresses on the floor of the House used to regularly include the word "shan't" and often started with the phrase, "Members, I reluctantly rise…" He was 81.

Bill Hollowell, D-Grand Saline, a 14-term state representative and one-time speaker pro tempore of the House. He was 83.