A Numberless Gallop through a Poll

Conservatives rule the roost in the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, but just when you think the hot buttons are all going the same way, Texans surprise you.

They put Rick Santorum in front of the other Republican presidential candidates, Ted Cruz in the rearview mirror of David Dewhurst's campaign wagon, and Sen. Dan Patrick a close second to Comptroller Susan Combs in a fantasy race for lieutenant governor in 2014.

Nobody in the Democratic field for the U.S. Senate has broken into public consciousness; most voters in that primary are undecided.

They think the country is on the wrong track and that the economy and jobs and federal spending are the top issues. The state is in better shape, they told the pollsters, and the persistent big issues here, according to the respondents, are immigration and border security, followed by the economy and jobs.

Texans strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing, but they love Barack Obama compared to Congress. They approve of the job Rick Perry is doing as governor, but are wary of another bid for reelection in 2014.

Any of the Republican candidates for president would win a general election in Texas, although the voters find everyone but Santorum to be more unfavorable than favorable.

They remain split over the question of a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants already in the U.S., and think immigrants with job skills should be preferred to those with family members already living here.

A higher percentage approve of doctor-assisted suicide than approve of an independent, appointed redistricting commission.

Most would support either gay marriages or civil unions. The death penalty remains overwhelmingly popular. Most don't believe the rich pay their share of taxes. A large minority believe that Mormons are Christians, but a significant number say the people they know would not vote for a Mormon for president if they agreed with that candidate on the issues.

Numbers, crosstabs, and methodology are attached, and you can get full charts and four longer stories here, here, here, and here

The Rubber Meets the Road

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott
Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott

Attorney General Greg Abbott made good on his promise to fight the constitutionality of the federal government’s contraception rule, joining six other states and a handful of Catholic organizations in a lawsuit challenging a new federal health care rule that would require all employers to include coverage for contraceptives in employees' health care benefits.

“Obamacare’s latest mandate tramples the First Amendment’s freedom of religion and compels people of faith to act contrary to their convictions,” Abbott said in a news release. “The very first amendment to our Constitution was intended to protect against this sort of government intrusion into our religious convictions.”

Opposition to the rule was heated in Texas, and many Catholic-run businesses were vocally opposed to it. Seton Healthcare Family, a nonprofit hospital system that serves 1.8 million Texans, vowed not to change its policies to include contraceptives in employees' health care coverage.

But many religious organizations opposed to the rule, including Seton, were appeased when President Barack Obama revised it to exempt religious organizations. The rule now requires insurance companies to ensure that women who work for exempted religious organizations receive contraceptive coverage. 

The revision was deemed a compromise nationally, but many Texas leaders and business advocates still opposed the mandate.

The “so-called ‘accommodation’ was nothing but a shell game: the mandate still requires religious organizations to subsidize and authorize conduct that conflicts with their religious beliefs,” Abbott said in the news release.

The lawsuit alleges that the so-called contraception rule violates the First Amendment by requiring religious organizations to provide coverage that violates their religious beliefs. It also alleges that the revision will violate the Religious Freedom Restoration Act by allowing the federal government to “troll through an organization’s religious beliefs” to determine whether the employer qualifies for an exemption. 

Texas now has 17 lawsuits pending against the federal government, including an effort with 25 other states to overturn the federal Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

In the end, the fights with the feds boil down to the cost on the state and Texas businesses — and this latest addition to the list of lawsuits is no exception. Abbott’s office also alleged that the “practical effect” of the contraceptive rule would be to drive up state health care costs, because religious employers would be forced to drop health insurance coverage of those employees who could inevitably be added to the Medicaid rolls.

Bill Hammond, the president and CEO of the Texas Business Association, which is opposed to the rule, also pointed to the costs at stake when Obama first issued the compromise.

"State and federal governments' mandates on health insurance policies, of any kind, simply drive up the cost of health insurance," he said.

UT Goes to Washington

The University of Texas at Austin.
The University of Texas at Austin.

With the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision this to hear an affirmative action case against the University of Texas, the university’s policies are once again poised to become a flashpoint in national discourse about the proper role of race in college admissions.

The case involves two white students who were denied admission to UT in 2008 when they fell barely out of the top 10 percent of their high school classes. They hope to overturn a landmark 2003 Supreme Court opinion allowing the use of race in the admissions process at the Michigan Law School.

Their case is funded by the Washington-D.C. based Project on Fair Representation and the group’s choice of Texas as a setting for the challenge to affirmative action is no accident. Opponents of affirmative action regard the state as an ideal incubator for litigation to overturn race-based admission policies. That’s because between 1996 and 2003, UT was forced to find racially neutral ways to promote diversity on campus after the Texas Supreme Court overturned its original race-based admissions policy.

The Legislature responded by passing the top 10 percent rule, which successfully increased the number of minorities at the school. The university also used socioeconomic-based affirmative action. But after the 2003 decision came down, it reworked the policy to consider race as a factor in admitting students outside the top 10 percent.

Texas' 5th Circuit sided with the university in January of last year. The U.S. Supreme Court has proven narrowly divided over affirmative action cases in the past. It has two new justices — Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, who will recuse herself from the case — since it last took up the issue of affirmative action in education, but Sandra Day O’Connor, who was the swing vote in the 5-4 Michigan case, has been replaced by the more conservative Samuel Alito. That means the swing vote will likely go to Anthony Kennedy, who joined the dissent in the 2003 Michigan case, against race-based admissions — and what could be the end of the policy.

Another Redistricting Deadline Looms

Redistricting is about where we left it last week, except that the lawyers have filed briefs from which the judges can pick and choose their changes to the maps drawn by the Legislature last year.

There's not much information, but there is a fair amount of speculation about when congressional and legislative maps might be completed.

This is known, from testimony, and argues for maps within the week: To hold May 29 primaries, election administrators say they must have final maps by March 3. That's a week from Saturday.

The Senate maps are done. The lawyers working on House maps have been pushing back and forth on three districts (primarily) without bursting into a chorus of Kumbaya. The congressional maps, several lawyers have said, will have to be drawn by the three federal judges in San Antonio and the main differences are in congressional districts 23, 25, 27, 33, and 35. 

Campaign Chatter

U.S. Senate candidate Craig James gestures while making a point during TribLive on February 23, 2012.
U.S. Senate candidate Craig James gestures while making a point during TribLive on February 23, 2012.

Some endorsements are more interesting than others. To wit:

Endorsement item #1: U.S. Senate candidate Craig James has put out nearly as many press releases for Rick Santorum as for his own campaign. Now he's put up a TV ad that's about... Santorum and James' endorsement of him.

Endorsement item #2: House Speaker Joe Straus, who's regularly sporting grill marks from adventures with some of the Tea-stained activists in his own party, served them some fresh material, endorsing Mitt Romney for the GOP presidential nomination.

Endorsement #3: U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, is in the running for a leadership spot in the Senate, and The Dallas Morning News asked Republican Ted Cruz whether he would vote for his fellow Texan if he were in the Senate. “I’m not going to prejudge,” he told the paper. Cornyn hasn't endorsed anyone in the GOP primary for Kay Bailey Hutchison's seat, but he could have a role when the primary is over: The state's junior senator is the head of the National Republican Senate Committee, the political organization for Senate Republicans.

• The Texas GOP primary is months away, but Santorum is coming to Austin this week, dragging the sack for campaign funds. Among the sponsors for that Friday event: State Reps. Tan Parker, R-Lewisville, and Paul Workman, R-Austin, and former state Rep. Tim Von Dohlen, who's now a lobbyist.

Amber Fulton, a Republican running in the open HD-88 in Denton County, unfurled an ethics platform that includes term limits, weekly disclosure of meetings with lobbyists, tougher penalties for ethics violations, a ban on campaign contributions from business that have received state tax incentives, denial of pension benefits to state officials convicted of felonies, and a requirement that third-party organizations "involved in the political process" disclose their donors online.

• Put Filemon Vela on your list of congressional candidates. The Brownsville Democrat told the Rio Grande Guardian he is filing paperwork to run in whatever congressional district lands there when the maps are drawn. He's the son of the former federal judge of the same name and his mom was mayor of Brownsville. His wife, Rose Vela, is a Republican appellate judge and the list of family members in politics and civics goes on and on.

• El Paso Mayor John Cook and city Reps. Susie Byrd and Steve Ortega are off of the recall list; an appeals court ruled the organizers of the recall effort violated the state's election laws. The losers said they would appeal.

• Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst picked up the endorsements of MPACT, the political action committee affiliated with the Texas Association of Manufacturers, the Texas Apartment Association, and BACPAC, the Texas Association of Business' PAC.. He's been stacking up institutional supporters in his bid for federal office; his opponents have said that's because those groups don't want to offend a candidate who'll either be a lieutenant governor or a U.S. senator a year from now.

• Five sitting members of the State Board of Education endorsed Marty Rowley in the Republican primary against Anette Carlisle. Both candidates live in Amarillo. The five include SBOE Chairman Barbara Cargill, Charlie Garza, Ken Mercer, Terri Leo and Gail Lowe.

• Houston's Steve Hotze, through his Conservative Republicans of Texas, endorsed Elizabeth Ames Jones' Republican primary challenge to Sen. Jeff Wentworth of San Antonio.

• State Rep. Larry Taylor, R-Friendswood, who's running for state Senate, picked up the endorsements of the National Rifle Association and its Texas affiliate, the Texas State Rifle Association. Sen. Mike Jackson, R-La Porte, is running for Congress; Taylor's running for his spot in the Senate.

• State Sen. Bob Deuell, R-Greenville, got the endorsement of TEXPAC, the political wing of the Texas Medical Association. Deuell, like his endorsers, is a medical doctor.  

Inside Intelligence: Maps, Gays, and the Rich

We asked the insiders some questions that were also in the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll this week, seeking their opinions on redistricting commissions, gay marriage and the wealthy among us.

They favor an independent redistricting commission — 58 percent are for it — but many have reservations about trying to take the politics out of politics, saying the commission would have to be appointed by elected officials and pointing out that similar setups in other states have failed to keep politics and lawsuits out of the maps.

Almost half of the insiders — 48 percent — would allow gays and lesbians to marry, and another 35 percent would permit civil unions but not marriages. Just over one in ten — 13 percent — would allow neither.

Sixty percent of the insiders said people who are less well off envy the rich, while 28 percent said that's not the case. And more than half think said the rich don't pay their fair share of taxes. That last question produced a split, with 52 percent saying the rich pay less than their fair share, 43 percent saying they do pay their fair share, and 5 percent checking the "I don't know" box.

We asked the respondents for verbatim comments and have attached the complete set of answers. A sampling follows:

.

Would you favor or oppose taking redistricting authority from the Legislature and governor, giving it instead to an independent, appointed commission?

• "Hard decisions don't get less hard by having someone else make the decision.  Should we have an independent, appointed 'Fiscal Board' cut the state budget?  Should we have an independent, appointed board select our state judges?  Should we have an independent, appointed board deal with Voter ID, sonogram laws, and TSA airport searches?"

• "There's no point and no fewer politics in an independent commission than the current redistricting process. It's not worth the cost."

• "Reforming the redistricting process represents the best hope we have of restoring civil and productive discourse to the state."

• "Taking politics out of redistricting is a farce. There's no such thing as an 'independent' commission. Give me a break."

• "Who will appoint the commission?"

• "Turn it over to someone else.  Not even the BCS computers could screw things up as badly as the Lege."

• "It would be a lot less entertaining, but a lot more fair."

• "Funny. No one every mentioned the concept of an independent commission years ago when the Democrats were in control and drawing the lines to their advantage."

• "Redistricting is a true insider's game.  As a lobbyist, I just don't care about how the lines are drawn; I only want to know what the final districts are so I can direct PAC money accordingly."

• "Why would you do that? Our current system is working so well."

.

What is your opinion on gay marriage or civil unions?

• "I am sad for the politicians who will have to justify their bigotry to their grandchildren when they explain why they were on the wrong side of history on this issue."

• "Marriage in Texas will always be viewed as a contract between Man, Woman, and God."

• "Many issues that historically have troubled the GLBT community can be handled via contract law and don't need the full force and recognition of marriage.  Two decades of popular culture war/opinion cannot and should not overturn two millennia of Judeo-Christian beliefs and the foundation of Western Civilization, including this country and state."

• "It's 2012! Is this really a threat to hetero marriage? 50% of marriages already end in divorce."

• "There is no reason to not let them get married.  Love is love."

• "Love is blind."

• "In 10 years it will be considered a basic human right."

• "Religious issues need to be left to the individual and God.  If two people want to enter into a legal arrangement, then why should I care?"

• "Who cares."

• "To borrow from Kinky Friedman, 'why shouldn't they be allowed to be miserable with the rest of us'"

.

Do you think people who are less well off are envious of rich people?

• "In the sense that they have a desire for some of the things that rich people possess or able to do, but not in the sense that they think rich people shouldn't have those things or be allowed to enjoy their wealth."

• "Elected officials seem more afflicted by the envy phenomenon than are the people who elected them."

• "I know I am."

• "The people who are less well off, who work tirelessly everyday trying to make ends meet are ticked off at those who refuse to work and depend on government. They do not know why the worker is being punished and the lazy are being rewarded."

• "Of course.  It's human nature, or else there wouldn't be a commandment about it."

• "A by-product of a generation where everyone got a ribbon or trophy on the soccer team. The Occupy message: 'Why do some people have a lot of money, but we don't?' Get over it! Life doesn't work that way."

• "I think resentment develops when average folks believe some rich folks have gotten that way by bending or breaking the rules."

• "Not unless told to do so by the media, Hollywood, the education system, and politicians.  It is not just liberals pushing the class warfare, politics of envy, populist BS, i.e. Rick Perry, Newt and Ron Paul did/are pushing it too."

• "Of course they are and that is not a bad thing. Envy and greed, subject to appropriate social controls, are strong motivators to performance."

.

Generally speaking, do you think that rich people pay their fair share of taxes?

• "I think 99% of Americans pay their fair share of taxes."

• "Rich people pay more than their share by almost any objective measure.  But politically, there's no limit to what 'fair' could mean."

• "Rich people pay their fair share, but that is not to say we don't have to do more to get us out of the very deep hole we are in. We all have to pay more and demand less or else future generations will have to deal with our bad decisions."

• "At this rate we will have tax breaks to electrify the wire around the gated communities by 2020."

• "They generally pay above and beyond.  The top 1% pay over 36% of all federal taxes.  The bottom 50% pay nothing."

• "Lower income people pay cash for things most often and therefore pay a greater percentage of the sales tax!"

• "Are you kidding!  They are carrying the load for everyone.  The stats are -- the top 10% pay over 70% of all taxes paid! (*National Taxpayers Union)"

• "Half the country doesn't pay any income taxes, while the top 10% of households pay 70% of all income taxes.  On a state level, the rates are less unequal, but the rich still pay more because they pay sales tax on every dollar they spend; spend more, pay more."

• "Wait, not just yes, HELL yes.  My wife and I are considered wealthy or rich or whatever the envious and jealous people call us.  We sat down with our accountant to look at 2011 taxes.  With our property, payroll (we own the business), income, and sales taxes we will be paying 50% or more of what we earn in taxes.  That is sick!"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Walt Baum, Dave Beckwith, Luke Bellsnyder, Rebecca Bernhardt, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Andy Brown, Jay Brown, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elizabeth Christian, Elna Christopher, George Cofer, Rick Cofer, Harold Cook, Randy Cubriel, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Alan Erwin, Jon Fisher, Norman Garza, Bruce Gibson, Scott Gilmore, Eric Glenn, John Greytok, Jack Gullahorn, Clint Hackney, Bill Hammond, Sandy Haverlah, Albert Hawkins, Ken Hodges, Billy Howe, Laura Huffman, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Sandy Kress, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Phillip Martin, Bryan Mayes, J. McCartt, Dan McClung, Parker McCollough, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Steve Murdock, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Lee Parsley, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Bill Pewitt, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Bill Ratliff, Karen Reagan, Tim Reeves, Kim Ross, Jeff Rotkoff, Jason Sabo, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Steve Scurlock, Bradford Shields, Dee Simpson, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Keith Strama, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Trent Townsend, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Ellen Williams, Seth Winick, Alex Winslow, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Gov. Rick Perry’s last financial filing as a presidential candidate showed a campaign spending money much more quickly than it was taking it in during the final days of his failed bid. In three weeks, the campaign shelled out $3 million on consultants, expensive TV advertising and travel. At the same time, the campaign took in a mere $400,000. Perry dropped out of the race on Jan. 19. His remaining campaign account balance was $860,168.

Texas A&M University hosted what some considered an unlikely guest for Presidents Day: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. At the George H.W. Bush presidential library, she praised the elder Bush — who sat in the front row at the event with his wife, Barbara — for his civility and leadership. 

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano was in the Rio Grande Valley this week for a two-day visit, joined by U.S. Customs and Border Protection Acting Commissioner David Aguilar. She was briefed by law enforcement officials on a broad range of border security issues and was asked to continue providing federal grant money to help local departments step up their operations in combating spillover violence from Mexico. Hidalgo County alone has received more than $6 million since 2004 under the Operation Stonegarden program.

As the Lower Colorado River Authority presented its new water management plan for Central Texas, heavy rain caused lake levels to rise substantially across the state. The drought had lakes at record-low levels, but the downpours were enough to boost the levels by about 7.5 percent. The drought is far from over. But the volume of winter rains caught meteorologists off guard and led to optimism about easing of water restrictions. The LCRA’s plan for water management included capping releases for rice farmers downstream from the lakes and doubling reserves for cities and power plants. 

Two death row inmates had their appeals rejected by the Supreme Court this week. The high court refused to consider the appeals of Britt Ripkowski, convicted of killing a 2-year old girl in 1997, and Marcus Druery, a former student at Texas State Technical College who was convicted of robbing and shooting a fellow student in 2002.

Tensions in Hidalgo between two factions led by the mayor and his uncle came to a head with the resignation of Mayor John David Franz, who had served as the city's leader for 22 years. His political committee will field a slate of candidates in May, and he hopes to ensure their success by stepping aside after more than a year of strained community relations surrounding his legal residency. It’s widely known that Franz lives in neighboring Pharr, but the issue has received more scrutiny since his break with his uncle, whose group, Concerned Citizens of Hidalgo, led a march on City Hall in October to publicize the matter.

Political People and their Moves

Gov. Rick Perry was scheduled to have a 90-minute surgery on his collarbone Friday morning; it didn't heal properly after a bicycling accident in 2009.

Mark Vickery is retiring as executive director of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality in May after 25 years in government. He has headed the agency since 2008.

Perry reappointed Douglas Wilson of Pflugerville as inspector general of the Texas Health and Human Services Commission.

Perry appointed John "Mark" McWatters of Dallas to the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs. McWatters is director of graduate programs and an adjunct professor at the Southern Methodist University Dedman School of Law, and an adjunct professor in the Cox School of Business.

Press corps moves: Dave Montgomery, a terrific reporter who's covered Austin, Washington, the USSR and who knows what else for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, is taking a buyout as that paper shrinks its newsroom.

Quotes of the Week

Obviously it embarrasses you. When the bright lights are on and trying to reach in there and get that exact thing that you’re looking for is elusive, so it’s happened to everyone, and I kind of take it as one of those great humbling moments in your life that helps us all become better people. From my perspective, I’d rather it not have happened. If you don’t hit a few speed bumps in your life, you’re probably going down a dead end road.

Rick Perry on his infamous "oops" moment

It's not that Perry is dead. But the notion that he's invulnerable is dead.

Daron Shaw, co-director of the University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll

He's both as popular and as unpopular as he's ever been.

Jim Henson, co-director of the UT/Texas Tribune Poll, on Rick Perry's numbers 

I want to assure the public this has nothing to do with the county of El Paso and county government. We've had some very difficult blows lately. I hope the public understands this does not have anything to do with our organization.

El Paso County Judge Veronica Escobar to the El Paso Times on Commissioner Willie Gandara Jr.'s arrest on drug trafficking charges

I’m against very wealthy people attempting to or influencing elections. But as long as it's doable, I'm going to do it.

Casino owner Sheldon Adelson, primary funder of a Newt Gingrich Super PAC, in Forbes 

Because he's a fake.

Ron Paul during a CNN debate Wednesday on why his latest ad accuses rival Rick Santorum of being a phony conservative