Will Lawmakers Leave When the Session Ends?

Attorney General Greg Abbott, announce legislation to modernize the Texas Open Meetings Act on March 7th, 2013. the bill will be filed today by Sen. Kirk Watson D-Austin
Attorney General Greg Abbott, announce legislation to modernize the Texas Open Meetings Act on March 7th, 2013. the bill will be filed today by Sen. Kirk Watson D-Austin

Greg Abbott’s continuing push for a vote on redistricting would clear the decks for next year’s elections, including getting the issue largely out of his way while he’s running for whatever he decides to run for next year.

The attorney general has been pressing state leaders to adopt the maps drawn by federal judges for use in last year’s elections. That would cut short an ongoing fight over the maps passed by the Legislature in 2011. It’s also a bet that the U.S. Supreme Court will toss the part of the Voting Rights Act that requires Texas and other states to get federal permission before they can make changes to election laws.

Opponents of the court-drawn maps could still sue, but without the Section 5 pre-clearance protections, they’d be asking the courts to prevent the state from using the maps that were already used once. And approving the court maps would arguably cut off the ongoing litigation on the maps that were approved by the Legislature.

The 2012 elections were delayed by the court fights. That time lag was harmful to candidates like David Dewhurst, who had lots of money and early leaders, and helpful to candidates like Ted Cruz, who benefited from a longer primary and the attention it brought to him, eventually, by groups that could finance his run for U.S. Senate.

Abbott has more money on hand than anyone in Texas politics. In whatever race he choose to run — governor, lieutenant governor, whatever — he’d be a candidate with an early advantage. Who’d want to squander that?

The Dallas Morning News reported on Abbott’s visit this week to the House Republican Caucus, where he apparently expressed hopes for a quick special session on redistricting when the current session is over. When he was taking temperatures on this earlier in the session, senators were willing but the House wasn’t. The political alliances there are more fragile, and management didn’t want to ruffle feathers.

An alternate timeline would have lawmakers returning for a quick session after a Supreme Court decision. But the time is relatively short. Candidates will be filing to run in December, and the courts are slow.

If there are no other issues left over from the session, a special on redistricting would leave House Democrats without any of the bargaining ability they’ve cobbled together during the regular session. It would end the Kumbaya thing that’s been going on, but without other issues at stake, that might not matter to the Republicans.

If issues like budget, water, transportation and tax cuts run into overtime, the politics change. The same consideration that kept redistricting out of the mix in the House during the regular session would still be in place.

The political calculations are not confined to the House. One variable is hidden from everyone who is not named Rick Perry or Greg Abbott. Governors call special sessions. If the two are working together and if Perry buys the pitch that this is a good idea, he could bring lawmakers back. If he and Abbott are circling each other, Perry might have a different answer. It's hard to know what everybody will do without knowing what everybody wants.

Hopefuls Taking Aim at Mark Strama's House Seat

Rep. Mark Strama D-Austin, speaks during HB5 debate on March 26th, 2013. There are currently 165 amendments to the bill and the debate is expected to go well into the night.
Rep. Mark Strama D-Austin, speaks during HB5 debate on March 26th, 2013. There are currently 165 amendments to the bill and the debate is expected to go well into the night.

It seems the person most excited about the prospects of adding a new Travis County Democrat to the Texas House in 2015 is the person whose departure created the opening.

State Rep. Mark Strama, D-Austin, announced in February he was bowing out after 10 years in the lower chamber. Strama said recently that he hasn’t decided if his next move will be to run for Austin mayor — something he has been pondering since last session. But he said the field of candidates who have “hit the ground running” following his announcement bodes well for how talented House District 50's constituents are.

“They are all really good candidates, and the district will be served by any of them,” Strama said. The pool is so well stocked, he added, that it has made him rethink how prestigious his seat is.

“I’ve never viewed it with a whole lot of grandeur, but now, looking at the candidates, I think, ‘Wow, it’s a pretty big deal,’” he said.

Hopefuls cannot officially file for the election with the political parties until late this year, but they have already begun filing with the Texas Ethics Commission in order to raise money.

The first to make her intentions public was Jade Chang Sheppard, a Taiwanese immigrant who pegs herself as a fiscally conservative and socially liberal candidate. She is the founder of Gideon Contracting and mother of two. Joining her is Celia Israel, a former aide to the late Texas Gov. Ann Richards. She is a licensed real estate agent and owns Mission Resources, a consulting firm. Ramey Ko is a partner with Jung Ko PLLC, an associate municipal court judge and co-founder of Capital Area Asian American Democrats. He announced his candidacy in April. Rico Reyes, a U.S. Marine, Harvard graduate and former Travis County prosecutor now in private practice, recently jumped into the fray.

Strama believes Democrats have the upper hand in the district. President Obama won 58 percent of the vote there in 2012, compared with Mitt Romney’s 39 percent; Paul Sadler, the Democrat who ran for U.S. Senate against eventual winner Ted Cruz, bested his opponent by 19 percentage points in the same election. In 2010 statewide races, Democrats also edged Republicans, but by smaller margins. In the 2010 off-year election, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White received 56 percent of the vote against Gov. Rick Perry, who earned 40 percent. Union leader Linda Chavez-Thompson's 47.4 percent was only 125 votes more than Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's 46.94 percent.  

The district is 48 percent Anglo, 13 percent black and 29 percent Hispanic, according to the last decennial census. The district's relatively high Asian population could be an important bloc in a Democratic primary.

The fact that the contest takes place in a nonpresidential year shouldn’t make too much of a difference, Strama said. Instead, he said, the challenge will be one he didn’t have: running in a crowded primary race in which candidates are required to make themselves stand out against like-minded candidates.

Strama defeated an incumbent Republican and never dealt with the “feeding frenzy” of a Travis County Democratic primary race, he said.

“In a general election you have fundamental disagreements about policy,” he said. “I assume the challenge is differentiating yourself because you generally all share the same values. And that’s going to be a challenge, and I hope they find ways to differentiate that don’t involve personality and personal attacks.”

Video: The Legislature's Express Lane

More than half of all bills passed in the House so far this session have done so on the Local & Consent Calendar. They are uncontested pieces of legislation that seemingly pass without much consideration in the second half of session. But the lawmakers, staff and various groups who have a hand in local and uncontested bills say the measures are "well vetted." 

Inside Intelligence: About the End Games...

With a little more than a week left in the session, we went to the insiders with questions about the end games — about what will be left at the end of the session, how the controversial things might come out, and who’ll be standing after the election season that starts when the session ends.

To be fair to the insiders, the situation is fluid at the end of a session. Most were betting that the Railroad Commission sunset bills — declared dead this week by their authors — would survive. And they were pessimistic about water funding, payday lending, transportation funding and Medicaid expansion. At this writing — this will change, and rapidly — those were, in order, alive, dead, alive and imperiled.

Most of the insiders don’t expect lawmakers to bust the constitutional limit on growth in state spending, to expand Medicaid or to tighten ethics laws. Some things they do expect will win votes: spending from the Rainy Day Fund, asking voters for infrastructure money, cutting business taxes and passing pay raises for judges and the linked increase in lawmaker pensions.

Finally, we asked the insiders for predictions of which of the current top state officials will remain in office — a new one or the one they’ve got now — after the 2014 elections. Their picks to win: John Cornyn, Joe Straus, Greg Abbott, Todd Staples and Barry Smitherman. And their picks to lose or retire: Rick Perry, David Dewhurst, Susan Combs and Jerry Patterson.

The full set of verbatim responses is attached. Here’s a sampling:

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What will be left undone at the end of the session?

• "More left undone than done.  Very typical of the Texas Legislature."

• "Query: When something is 'doorknob dead' (e.g. payday lending) in the 83rd Legislature is that term synonymous with ‘undone’?"

• "Too much time between now and Sine Die to say with any reasonable sense of confidence.  We're all just throwing darts."

• "As I made all these check marks, I think I figured out why it was such an easy session.  None of the hard things were decided."

• "There are a lot of big issues still in the ditch. I hope they can at least get water and RRC across the finish line but I'm not too optimistic."

• "Perry has a history of getting his way.  He has made it clear the only way to get home without a special is to implement a tax cut and fund water.  Everything else is expendable."

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When all is said and done (special sessions or not), will the Legislature:

• "Will the House get its way on spending Rainy Day Funds without implicating the spending cap?  Or will the AG's opinion stand?  Stay tuned...."

• "Lawmakers, specially those that are expecting a Republican primary, need to be careful about raising their pensions. This issue can come back to hurt them."

• "There will be a special session. But then again, aren't all legislative sessions 'special' (in their own way)?"

• "They will pass window dressing legislation that shows they are getting tough on ethics.  Window dressing, mind you, nothing of substance."

• "A void in leadership in both chambers."

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Will each of these current officeholders hold their current office, or another statewide office, in 2015?

• "Cornyn: TEA Party candidates need not apply; Perry: 'It's deja-vu all over again.' Dewhurst: the only known outcome on this list; Straus: As an R or a D? Abbott: Yes, but only if he runs for AG; Patterson: He's going to write his Texana speeches all the way to the East wing of the Capitol; and Combs-Staples-Smitherman: Consider this a field wager. Field wagers never pay."

• "Any republican with statewide ambitions should run this cycle. I believe this is the last cycle a Republican candidate can run statewide and only have a primary to worry about."

• "Perry beats Abbott.  Combs stays put.  Staples beats Dewhurst and Patterson."

• "Praying for more Ted Cruz's."

• "What an uninspiring list of oops-ers, has-beens, wannabes, never-wills, and who's thats.  Even Republicans are sick of this crew."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Doc Arnold, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Dave Beckwith, Rebecca Bernhardt, Andrew Biar, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Kerry Cammack, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, John Greytok, Michael Grimes, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Adam Haynes, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Laura Huffman, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Walt Jordan, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Dale Laine, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Dan McClung, Scott McCown, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Bill Ratliff, Karen Reagan, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ben Sebree, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Charles Stuart, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Ware Wendell, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Alex Winslow, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Newsreel: Budget, Ethics and 2014

In this edition of the Texas Weekly Newsreel: We're entering the last week of the 83rd legislative session at the Texas Capitol. Many questions remain: Will lawmakers finish the budget? Will the governor call for a special session? And when this is over, who will be running for office in 2014?

The Calendar

Friday, May 17

  • Last day for House to consider local House bills on second and third reading

Saturday, May 18

  • Last day for House committees to report Senate bills and Senate Joint Resolutions

Tuesday, May 21

  • Last day for House to consider second-reading Senate bills and Senate Joint Resolutions on Daily or Supplemental Calendar

Wednesday, May 22

  • Last day for House to consider local and consent Senate bills on second and third reading and all third-reading Senate bills and Senate Joint Resolutions on Supplemental Calendar
  • Last day for Senate to consider all bills and joint resolutions on second or third reading

Thursday, May 23

  • Last day for Senate amendments to be distributed in the House
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

The cause of a fertilizer plant explosion in West that killed 15 people on April 17 has been ruled “undetermined,” officials announced at a press conference in the town's high school parking lot. While an investigation into what triggered the blaze is ongoing, investigators’ examination of the scene has concluded. Because they cannot rule out an intentionally set fire, the matter is still considered a criminal investigation.

With exoneree Michael Morton by his side, Gov. Rick Perry signed a measure that aims to avoid wrongful convictions by preventing prosecutors from suppressing evidence. Morton was convicted in 1987 and sentenced to life in prison for the murder of his wife. He was exonerated in 2011 after DNA testing connected another man to the brutal crime. In their investigation, Morton's lawyers discovered that the prosecutor in the original case had withheld critical evidence that could have pointed to the real killer and spared Morton the quarter-century he spent behind bars.

The Texas Railroad Commission won’t get a new name or a new set of rules and regs, either; for the second session in a row, lawmakers trying to pass an RRC sunset bill got stuck. The Senate passed a bill, but after intense lobbying by the three commissioners, Rep. Dennis Bonnen, R-Angleton, said he couldn’t get it out of the House. Among the provisions that fail with the bill are a name change, a resign-to-run restriction on commissioners using the post as a political springboard and restrictions on campaign contributions.

Term limits for governors and other statewide officeholders flew through the Senate but died in the House, apparently killing that issue for the session. Had it passed there, the issue would have been on the November ballot for voters to finally decide. Rick Perry, governor since 2000, has said he’s considering another reelection bid in 2014 and will announce his plans after the legislative session. The proposal wouldn’t have been retroactive.

Regents of the state's public university systems would be required to attend training — including ethics training — before being allowed to vote on budgetary or personnel matters, under legislation on its way to the governor. SB 15, authored by Senate Higher Education Chairman Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo, was filed amid concerns about what he called "micromanagement" at the University of Texas System. Laying out the bill in the lower chamber, House Higher Education Chairman Dan Branch, R-Dallas, called it the "higher ed governance clean up bill." Still to come: Confirmation hearings on the governor’s three latest picks to join the board of regents at the University of Texas.

Political People and their Moves

Eleanor Kitzman’s tenure as Texas insurance commissioner will probably end this month, according to Senate Nominations Chairman Glenn Hegar, R-Katy. He set the agenda for what he thinks will be his last committee meeting without adding her name to the list of people under consideration. Failing to win the Senate’s blessing during the regular legislative session would force her out of that major regulatory post when the session ends May 27.

U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall, R-Rockwall, says he will seek another term in 2014. He is 90, and the oldest member of Congress.

Republican Konni Burton of Colleyville will run for the Texas Senate in SD-10, where Democrat Wendy Davis of Fort Worth is the incumbent. Burton is a member of the Tea Party Caucus Advisory Committee, a group that meets with Republican lawmakers during the session. Among her first endorsers: Freshman Rep. Jonathan Stickland, R-Bedford. 

Travis Brock is the new executive director of the Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee. He’s been working on political campaigns in Nevada for the past six years. 

Cheryl MacBride, deputy director of services at the Texas Department of Public Safety, was reelected to the Employee Retirement System board of directors.

Charged: Phillip Monroe Ballard, accused of trying to hire someone to kill U.S. District Judge John McBryde of Fort Worth. Ballard, 71, was facing tax charges when he tried to hire what turned out to be an FBI agent posing as a killer.

Deaths: Billie Sol Estes, a legendary West Texas con man who went to prison for selling non-existent fertilizer tanks in the early 1960s and returned to prison in the late 1970s on convictions for mail fraud and federal tax charges. He was 88.

Quotes of the Week

That was wrong. That was absolutely incorrect, it was insensitive and it was inappropriate. That’s not how we go about selecting cases for further review. The IRS would like to apologize for that.

Lois Lerner of the IRS on the agency's targeting of Tea Party groups during the 2012 election year, quoted by the Associated Press

I know you all get tired of being hammered by the charlatans and peacocks but the fight is being won...

"RP" — later identified as Gov. Rick Perry — in an email to four of UT's regents

This type of discussion is pretty common in the House. When someone asks you, “Did the rape guy win?” and you have to ask which one, that’s a bad sign.

Cecile Richards of Planned Parenthood, talking to the New York Times about Todd Akin's "legitimate rape" comments during last year's elections

It's a chicken-and-egg question. Eventually, someone has to step forward and say, 'Either I'm going to be the chicken or the egg.

Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, on Democrats' decisions on when a statewide campaign is viable

Democrats worship abortion with same fervor the Canaanites worshipped Molech.

U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Friendswood, on Twitter, in response to the Kermitt Gosnell abortion doctor verdict on Monday

The attorney general will not cast aspersions on my asparagus.

U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Tyler, after Attorney General Eric Holder suggested his facts were wrong