Enlarge Callie Richmond

State Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, at a "Stand With Texas Women" rally at the state Capitol.

Maybe Greg Abbott will get his political test after all. And Wendy Davis will find out whether all the smart folks were too cautious or, well, smart.

Davis told reporters in Washington that she will either run for reelection to her state Senate seat in 2014 or for governor, probably against Abbott, the attorney general and the presumptive favorite in the GOP primary.

That narrows the choices and now she can explore — in speeches and appearances now underway in different cities around the U.S. — whether any Democrats with money are willing to invest in a Texas candidate.

In her National Press Club appearance, she also repeated her line that you can’t break through in politics until you break through. It’s the standard aspirational spin of a party out of power, and it will eventually be correct. No way John Tower could win, or Bill Clements, until they were a U.S. senator and a governor and the naysayers were silenced.

Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison get credit for breaking into the statewide jobs in 1990, but Clements was an incumbent governor and the junior senator at the time, Phil Gramm, was a Republican, too. Perry and Hutchison (and Gramm, too, that year) were survivors of the Clayton Williams collapse in the race for governor.

Even so, almost nobody thought they had an ice cube’s chance, and they went on to dominate — along with George W. Bush — the state’s politics for the next two decades.

If the odds had been better, there would have been more — and different — candidates.

Now the Democrats are where they started, hoping they can get Davis or someone prominent to sign up and to attract others who might make it a ticket.

Conventional wisdom is that Davis will make the top race. If she doesn’t, Texas Democrats will have an empty statewide ballot and not much time to put something together. 

Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

Greg Abbott announces his candidacy for governor at La Villita in San Antonio on July 14, 2013.

Attorney General Greg Abbott is being treated like a shoo-in for Texas governor next year, and if he makes it into office without real competition, he would be writing an odd chapter into the state's political history.  

There have been three open races (i.e., with no incumbent running) for governor in the last 60 years, and each of them was more competitive than the contest shaping up right now.

It’s important to repeat the words “right now,” because surprises can and often do happen in politics. Democrat Wendy Davis is still flirting with a run, and she might give Abbott more of a challenge than he’s expecting. A series of gaffes or unforced errors, for example, could turn this coronation into a slugfest.

Abbott could also draw more opponents into his primary, which might push the race into a runoff, where things could get unpredictable. Currently the only known GOP primary challengers are former Texas Workforce Commissioner Tom Pauken, who has credibility with conservatives but only a fraction of Abbott’s financial resources, and Miriam Martinez, a former TV reporter in the Valley. They are both longshots until they prove otherwise, either through a show of organization around the state or fundraising prowess that could fuel a statewide campaign.

With the proper caveats out of the way, and given the heavy Republican leanings of the Texas electorate, it’s fair to say this is Abbott’s race to lose. And that makes him quite a standout in the modern history of open Texas governor's races. 

The last open race was in 1990, when Republican Gov. Bill Clements decided to retire, sparking highly competitive primaries in both major parties, and a runoff on the Democratic side. That was followed by a major upset in November, when gaffe-prone Republican Clayton Williams, who had been favored to win, lost to Democrat Ann Richards.

The seat was open 22 years earlier, in 1968, when Democrats dominated Texas in the way the GOP does now (though a lone Republican, John Tower, held statewide office as a U.S. senator). During that 1968 governor’s race, conservative Democrat Preston Smith, then lieutenant governor, had been considered the favorite. But he found himself in a runoff with liberal Democrat Don Yarborough. Smith won that two-man race and easily beat the Republican in the fall. 

A dozen years earlier, U.S. Sen. Price Daniel was considered the heavy favorite in an open race for governor, a job that he famously said he’d rather have than that of president of the United States. But a crowded 1956 Democratic primary produced a runoff between Daniel and liberal Ralph Yarborough (no relation to Don) and it turned into a nail-biter. Daniel won it by fewer than 4,000 votes.

In those days, before Republicans began running competitively statewide, most of the action happened in the Democratic primary. And often a conservative Democrat ended up in a runoff with a liberal (or more liberal) Democrat. Now, nearly all of the action for statewide office is on the Republican side.

During that period of Democratic dominance, dating from the time the runoff system was devised in 1920, there was only one open governor’s race that did not lead to a second-round runoff between the top two vote getters, according to election returns posted in the online Texas Almanac.  It was in 1938, when W. Lee “Pappy” O’Daniel, a popular radio personality, musician and flour salesman, faced 13 candidates in a crowded Democratic primary for governor. Even with the competition, he won in the first round with about 51 percent of the vote. 

There is plenty of time for more Republicans to jump into the 2014 race or for Pauken or Martinez to gain some traction — for something unexpected to happen. But at this point, Abbott — 75 years after O’Daniel was elected governor — is well poised to claim an easy victory in an uncrowded GOP contest in the first round, after which he would be heavily favored to win in the fall in a state where Democrats haven't found their footing.

Enlarge Illustration by Todd Wiseman / Mikel Manitius

When is a little help worse than no help at all?

That’s the question some transportation advocates are asking now as lawmakers try to give the Texas Department of Transportation a fraction of what it needs to maintain the state’s current state of traffic.

The agency is like a stranded motorist on the side of the road with a flat tire and smoke coming out of the hood. Good Samaritans with jacks and spares are nice but you hope they don't scare off someone who knows how to fix the engine.

The Texas Legislature closed out the third special session this week as they voted to send to voters a constitutional amendment in 2014 that would boost TxDOT’s funding by an estimated $1.2 billion a year. The measure takes advantage of the current oil and gas drilling boom by diverting to the state’s highway fund half of the energy production taxes currently flowing to the Rainy Day Fund.

While $1.2 billion a year is more than the entire transportation budget for some states, it’s a far cry from addressing TxDOT’s shortfall. The agency has said it needs $4 billion more a year to maintain current congestion. That doesn’t count another $1 billion a year needed to address the incredible damage energy sector development is doing to roads in west and south Texas. The agency recently attracted widespread outrage and dismay when it announced plans to convert some unsafe roads to gravel because it can’t afford to fix them.

Calls for raising more money for transportation are likely to be louder in the 2015 legislative session. In the meantime, advocates for the constitutional amendment have the tricky challenge of convincing voters that it is worth their attention, while not giving them the false impression that it will solve TxDOT’s funding woes. If they oversell it, they could sap the political will to pursue more meaningful revenue-raisers.

“We’re concerned about it, but at the same time, we’re not going to miss this opportunity based on fear,” said Texas Association of Business President Bill Hammond.

The author of the plan, state Rep. Joe Pickett, D-El Paso, said 2015 will be tough no matter what, but that doing nothing until then is far worse.

“If this doesn’t pass and the voters ultimately don’t pass it, it’ll be hell next session trying to fill that hole,” he told reporters before the House passed his measure. 

The size of that hole was on transportation commissioners minds at a meeting last month. Several expressed frustration that even a partial fix to TxDOT’s shortfall was proving so tough to pass. Commission Chairman Ted Houghton said he has heard some suggest that “we ought to let this thing go into the ditch and have a scorched earth and let the Legislature deal with it.”

“Maybe that’s the way to get their attention,” he said.

Now they have to get the attention of voters.

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In this week's Newsreel: The Texas Legislature leaves Austin, we get a glimpse at Wendy Davis' future politcal plans, and we are left with this question: Will Texas ever get out of the battle over its political maps?

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/15g8a6f

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With the state’s junior senator touring Iowa and the governor open to conversation about another presidential run, we asked the insiders about their chances.

More than half said U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz should not run for president, but 76 percent said he would do better in a Republican presidential primary than Gov. Rick Perry. Four out of five said Cruz could not win the presidency.

With Cruz in Washington and Perry not running for reelection, we asked which Republican will be the face of the Texas GOP for the next few years. The favorite of the moment, with 62 percent: Attorney General Greg Abbott, who is running for governor in 2014. Cruz got 26 percent of the votes, and Perry got 1 percent. U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst got no votes and 16 percent said they either don’t know or think it will be someone other than those five.

We asked for comments along the way and a full set of those is attached. A sampling follows:

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

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Should Ted Cruz run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016?

• "I don't like it, but the stars are aligning up for him. He has electrified the base like no one else. Now the reality is that Republicans will once again lose another presidential race if he gets out of the primary."

• "Explain it to me like I'm a four year old: how is he qualified? What’s his experience? What's his legislative or executive or 'life' accomplishment(s)? How has he demonstrated he can work with folks to achieve a common goal?"

• "Why not? A US Senator with less experience than Cruz was elected President in 2008 and serves as President today."

• "The more Ted Cruz is the national brand of Republicans, the better it is for Democrats anywhere in the country - except maybe Texas if he were actually nominated, and that's still a big 'if.'"

• "Sure, why not? On paper, he's the perfect candidate--smart, articulate, young, and Hispanic. And his libertarian leanings will attract voters."

• "Oh yes, please. Please let him run."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

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Which Texan do you think would do better in a Republican primary?

• "We have no Texans qualified to run in the 2016 GOP Presidential primary."

• "Perry's national moment has come and gone. Cruz can best articulate the issues that primary voters will have on their minds in 2015-16 (federalism; big gov't)."

• "Ted Cruz may be smarter; Rick Perry is a much better candidate. I don't look for the errors in 2012 to repeat themselves."

• "One has state legislative and executive experience (in a big state), served in the military, has done manual labor as a farmer, and has real, honest-to-goodness achievements and experience under his belt. The other is a career staffer, lawyer, and has been U.S. Senator for less than a year. On paper I know which of the two I would prefer."

• "As much as it may disappoint many Texans, the country is not that enamored with Texas leaders. Just travel a little a little and let people find out you are from our great state."

• "Maybe this would be better phrased as 'Which Texan do you think would get beat by less in a Republican primary?'"

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

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Do you think Ted Cruz could win the presidential race in 2016?

• "Too young and inexperienced. The public will have time to see and understand the devastation of the B. Obama presidency."

• "Cruz has gained notoriety by being against things he should be against. To win, he must start telling the voters what he is FOR."

• "Cruz would give voters a CHOICE. We're weary of the McCain, Romney, ECHOs."

• "He's been in the Senate less than a year and before that was a career staffer and lawyer. How does that qualify him to be POTUS? He represents a small but vocal minority of the GOP and his antics will not play well during a lengthy primary battle across multiple states."

• "Red meat stuff does not win general elections."

• "He'll have to hold the right and still come to the middle to get people like me. Hard to do, but not impossible."

• "If Obamacare is implemented in 2015-2016, the cost burden will hit the economy. That means one thing: big year for Republicans."

• "No, but he wasn't supposed to win his US Senate seat either."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

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Now that Gov. Rick Perry isn’t seeking reelection, who will be the face of the Republican Party in Texas for the next few years?

• "Cruz-mania is in effect. He officially becomes the face of the conservative movement in Texas."

• "It will be Abbott by default if he becomes governor. 1) Perry will be focused on running for President; 2) Cruz is focused on fixing Washington; 3) Cornyn has never aspired to fill that roll; and 4) Dewhurst? Bush, Patterson, Staples... not going to happen."

• "Abbott has made no mistakes unless you count his liability claim, and no one cares about that except a few trial lawyers. He is well liked among mainstream Republicans as well as TEA party types. To date, he's been red meat enough to satisfy the hard-cores, and reasonable enough to satisfy the mainstreams. If he can continue the balancing act he'll be the Republican leader in Texas for a while."

• "Assuming he wins the governorship and none of these men get elected president."

• "George P. Bush. While Abbott will most likely be Governor, and will be highly visible, the Republican party, and the state as a whole, will be best served by championing the well-reasoned conservatism of George P. - not the self-promoting anarchy advocated by Ted Cruz."

• "Todd Staples...he's young and articulate."

• "Cornyn is colorless, Dewhurst will be defeated if he actually runs, Perry is fading into well-deserved obscurity, and budding star Cruz will be operating out of Washington. The governor leads the party."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Adam Haynes, Allen Blakemore, Allen Place, Andrew Biar, Andy Sansom, Beth Cubriel, Bee Moorhead, Bill Hammond, Bill Jones, Bradford Shields, Brandon Aghamalian, Bill Ratliff, Bryan Mayes, Bruce Scott, Tom Duffy, Cathie Adams, Curtis Culwell, Chris Britton, Charles Bailey, Cal Jillson, Clyde Alexander, Colin Strother, Clint Hackney, Christopher Shields, Christopher Williston, Dennis Speight, Darren Whitehurst, David White, David Cabrales, David Dunn, Deborah Ingersoll, Daniel Gonzalez, Dominic Giarratani, Mike McKinney, Robert Kepple, Elna Christopher, Andy Brown, Ed Small, Jason Sabo, Gary Polland, Gene Acuna, George Allen, Gay Erwin, Gardner Pate, Grant Ruckel, Harold Cook, Hector De Leon, Jack Erskine, Jenny Aghamalian, James LeBas, Jason Johnson, Jay Arnold, Jeff Eller, Pete Laney, Jerry Philips, John Greytok, Janis Carter, John Heasley, John Weaver, Jon Fisher, Jim Sartwelle, Jason Skaggs, Jay Thompson, Julie Shields, June Deadrick, Keats Norfleet, Kinnan Golemon, Ken Hodges, Kim Ross, Keir Murray, Kerry Cammack, Nick Lampson, Dick Lavine, Lee Woods, Lydia Camarillo, Lisa Kaufman, Leslie Lemon, Louis Bacarisse, Larry Soward, Luke Marchant, Luke Legate, Marc Campos, Matt Mackowiak, Dan McClung, Mike Moses, Mark Jones, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Alex Winslow, Nora Del Bosque, Neftali Garcia, Nef Partida, Nelson Nease, Norman Garza, Pat Nugent, Dave Beckwith, Patrick Reinhart, Phillip Martin, Wayne Pierce, Jay Propes, Peck Young, Ramey Ko, Randy Cubriel, Brian Rawson, Richard Pineda, Richard Dyer, Richard Khouri, Richard Levy, Bob Strauser, Robert Jones, Robert Scott, Robert Peeler, Russ Tidwell, Scott Dunaway, Seth Winick, Stephanie Gibson, Sandy Kress, Snapper Carr, Steve Scurlock, Stan Schlueter, Jason Stanford, Steve Murdock, Steve Holzheauser, Sylvia Nugent, Sherry Sylvester, Tom Blanton, Thomas Graham, Tim Reeves, Tom Kleinworth, Todd Smith, Tom Phillips, Tom Spilman, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Victor Alcorta, Vilma Luna, Walt Baum, Wil Galloway, Wayne Hamilton, Ware Wendell, Angelo Zottarelli.

On the gubernatorial campaign front:

State Sen. Wendy Davis told the National Press Club she will either run for governor or for reelection to her Senate seat in 2014, narrowing speculation about her next political step. The Fort Worth Democrat is making appearances all over the country after her filibuster temporarily killed an anti-abortion bill in the Texas Senate. Her term in the state Senate ends at the beginning of 2015.

Attorney General Greg Abbott, paralyzed by a falling oak tree in 1984, will receive more than half a million dollars this year from a legal settlement that guarantees him a six-figure yearly income for the rest of his life. Now the front-running candidate for Texas governor, Abbott discussed the terms of his multimillion-dollar-lawsuit agreement for the first time in an exclusive interview with The Texas Tribune. His campaign also provided a copy of the 1986 settlement.

Though Texas will join 26 other states in defaulting to a federal marketplace for purchasing health insurance, it is one of only six that will not enforce new health insurance reforms prescribed by the law. Because Texas did not create its own state-based marketplace, known as a health insurance exchange, under the Affordable Care Act, it must use a federally facilitated one instead. If a state does not enforce those reforms, the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services will step in to do it.

The West community will receive additional federal funding to rebuild following the explosion of a fertilizer depot in April that killed 15 people and flattened much of the town. The Federal Emergency Management Agency provided millions of dollars in aid immediately after the explosion, but the agency initially rejected the state’s request for additional financial assistance. The state’s appeal, submitted in early June, has now been approved, enabling federal aid to supplement state and local recovery efforts.

The University of Texas at Austin's custodian of records informed the University of Texas System on Monday that all pending records requests from embattled Regent Wallace Hall are considered "cancelled, effective immediately."

The persistence of drought conditions across Texas brought extra attention on the once-obscure Texas Water Development Board this legislative session, as lawmakers approved a major overhaul of the agency's leadership. And with a major financing proposal before voters, the power of the state agency, which has just under 300 employees, is poised to grow.

The Travis County Commissioners Court agreed to restore some money to the Travis County district attorney’s Public Integrity Unit after Gov. Rick Perry in June eliminated state funding for the office. The five-member commissioners court voted 4-1 on the proposal, which will cost Travis County taxpayers about $1.8 million next year. Perry vetoed that line item from the budget after District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg, who served jail time earlier this year for a drunken driving violation, refused to resign from her office. 

Texas Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick won't be running for comptroller, after entertaining that possibility for several weeks. Susan Combs isn't seeking reelection, but in a statement, Craddick said she's out of it: "I did give this opportunity considerable thought, however, I have concluded that I can best serve the people of Texas by continuing to oversee a stable and positive regulatory climate for Texas' thriving energy industry."

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst named his campaign team: Ryan Hecker, campaign manager; Travis Considine, communications; Eliza Vielma, digital and social strategy. 

Sen. Glenn Hegar, R-Katy, announced his comptroller campaign team: Rob Johnson, general consultant; David White, senior advisor; Keri Mason, finance director; Elizabeth White, political director. The announcement said that “Longtime Senator Hegar advisor Todd Smith will play an important role in the campaign,” but didn’t say what that will be.

Rep. Dan Branch picked up endorsements from 53 of the House’s 95 Republicans for his bid for attorney general. Sen. Ken Paxton picked up endorsements from 23. That leaves 19 to fight over.

Rep. Van Taylor, R-Plano, will run for Sen. Ken Paxton’s seat, now that Paxton, R-McKinney, is running for attorney general in 2014. Taylor claims the endorsements of all of the incumbent House members whose districts overlap the Senate district: Jodie Laubenberg, Scott Turner, Angie Chen Button, Scott Sanford, Jeff Leach and Stefani Carter. All are Republicans. Frisco City Councilman Scott Johnson is also expected to be in the race for Paxton’s Senate seat.

Fort Worth attorney and businessman Tom Schieffer is joining the Texas Central Railway effort to bring high-speed rail to the state, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. The former lawmaker and gubernatorial candidate will be an advisor to the effort led by Central Japan Railway.

Pending regents' approval: Billy Hamilton will be the new executive vice chancellor and CFO at the Texas A&M University System. Hamilton was deputy comptroller of public accounts under A&M Chancellor John Sharp. And he's a big Longhorn, too.

Caleb Troxclair is the new chief of staff and legal counsel to Texas Railroad Commissioner David Porter; he was previously with state Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford. Porter’s former chief, Amy Maxwell, is leaving to start a lobby practice. 

Former state Rep. Jim Solis, D-Harlingen, was sentenced to 47 months in federal prison and ordered to forfeit $250,000 in property and pay $120,000 in restitution for his part in bribing a state district judge in return for favorable rulings. 

Deaths: Jack Hightower, former state legislator, district attorney, congressman, and Texas Supreme Court Justice. He was 86.