For our biennial feature on the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated. 

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are in bold. An asterisk indicates an open seat, and those are rated by the apparent competitiveness of top candidates (closer is hotter). This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the March 4 primary approaches. Let us know what you think.

Enlarge

U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Friendswood, who filed to run against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn on Dec. 9, 2013.

After a couple of election cycles notable for high turnover, 2014 could be pretty mild. Only 13 members of the House, four members of the Senate and one member of the state’s congressional delegation won’t be seeking re-election next year. There might be some involuntary retirements — that’s what elections are all about, after all — but here at the starting gate, the numbers are small.

Here’s the quit list:

House: Dan Branch, R-Dallas; Bill Callegari, R-Katy; Brandon Creighton, R-Conroe; John Davis, R-Houston; Craig Eiland, D-Galveston; Harvey Hilderbran, R-Kerrville; Tryon Lewis, R-Odessa; Rob Orr, R-Burleson; Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie; Allan Ritter, R-Nederland; Mark Strama, D-Austin; Van Taylor, R-Plano; and Steve Toth, R-The Woodlands.

Senate: Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth; Dan Patrick, R-Houston; Ken Paxton, R-McKinney; and Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands.

Congress: Steve Stockman, R-Friendswood.

Two other senators will be on the ballot this year, but not for their own offices. Glenn Hegar, R-Katy, and Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, are running for comptroller and lieutenant governor, respectively. If they win, they’ll move up, but if they lose, they’ll still be senators when the new crop is sworn into office in January 2015.

Some state senators seeking re-election have an easy ride, with either no competition in the primary and none — or third-party only — in the general. Those without primaries include Robert Nichols, R-Jacksonville; Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown; Kelly Hancock, R-North Richland Hills; Kirk Watson, D-Austin; Royce West, D-Dallas; and Craig Estes, R-Wichita Falls. Van Taylor, the Plano Republican running for Ken Paxton’s empty seat, has no primary opponent and no major-party candidate in the general election.

In nearly all races run in political districts drawn by the Legislature, the maps favor one party or another. That effectively moves the political risks out of November and into March, where incumbents have to watch their backs in primaries. U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall, R-Rockwall, drew five primary opponents this year. Next door, U.S. Rep. Sam Johnson, R-Plano, drew three opponents. Those are big numbers, but not unusual in those two districts. The one swing race in the congressional delegation — CD-23, currently held by Pete Gallego, D-Alpine — features a three-way Republican primary and the promise of a tough November race.

But for most members, incumbency is relatively safe and for some, it means very little campaigning will be needed next year to remain in office.

Enlarge Gage Skidmore

It’s been more than a week since Steve Stockman dropped his re-election bid for Congress to challenge U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. But he’s still the talk of the political world.

There were attempts, though, to squash talk of Stockman making the primary competitive. In one noted example, Cornyn received a friendly incumbent endorsement from the National Rifle Association. The nod here to Cornyn is not all that surprising. But it is a blow to Stockman, who makes gun rights a key part of his appeal to grassroots conservatives.

Stockman also would like to invite comparisons between himself and Ted Cruz, a conservative insurgent who rode Tea Party popularity to an unexpected win over a mainstream Republican. So it was significant that Cruz’s pollster took it upon himself to release a survey showing Cornyn up big on Stockman. The phone poll of likely Republican primary voters showed Cornyn with 50 percent support and Stockman with 6 percent.

Stockman, meanwhile, fired back, targeting a pro-Cornyn group that is devoting its resources to attacking the challenger through a website, Facebook and Twitter campaign. The group, Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC, was seeded with a $2 million contribution from the now deceased Bob Perry. Stockman did not identify Perry by name but put a letter on his website decrying the “shady amnesty cash” backing Cornyn. 

Meanwhile, the Republican field in Stockman’s CD-36 has now been finalized. Six candidates took advantage of an extended filing deadline — spurred by Stockman's late withdrawal — to jump into the race. Late entrants included Ben Streusand and John Manlove. An even dozen are now competing for the nomination in the open seat.

In the already hot gubernatorial race between Greg Abbott and Wendy Davis, the Democrat’s campaign sought to highlight seemingly noncommittal responses from Abbott on issues such as this statement to the Odessa American on whether a lizard protection plan was working as intended: “I can’t say that it is,” he said. “And I won’t say that it’s not.”

The Abbott campaign accused Davis of relying on “the same, repeated, and worn out attacks” and invited Davis “to offer positive contributions to enhance the discussion.”

There was movement as well in the race to succeed Davis in the state Senate. Democrats are trying to find a candidate in the Fort Worth-based SD-10 that can be successful in that swing district. Five former leaders of the Tarrant County Democratic Party don’t think Fort Worth attorney George Boll is that candidate. They called on him to leave the race, citing his past record of voting in Republican primaries.

Boll, though, has defended his voting history, saying that Tarrant County Democrats often must “cross over” and that he was no less a Democrat for doing so. He pointed out that Davis has a history of voting in Republican primaries, too.

And in one final bit of news, the March primaries will be held under a new state elections official. That’s because Secretary of State John Steen announced last Friday that he’s stepping down in early January.

Gov. Rick Perry announced on Thursday that he was naming Nandita Berry, a University of Houston regent and wife to radio talk show host Michael Berry, as Texas’ new secretary of state. She first came to the United States at the age of 21 "with nothing but $200 to her name," according to the press release announcing her appointment. Now she becomes the state’s first Indian-American to hold the post.

Enlarge

This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: Texas A&M University names a new interim president, U.T. Austin keeps it's current president and a fundraising deadline looms for 2014 candidates. 

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/18BX0Bm

Enlarge

For this final Inside Intelligence of 2013, we asked the insiders to predict the ultimate winners of some of next year’s elections.

By a nearly five-to-one margin, they picked Republican Greg Abbott in the race for governor. The next race down is cloudy, however, with the favorite — incumbent Republican David Dewhurst — pulling 35 percent.

More than half predict state Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, will be the next attorney general, and seven in ten pick state Sen. Glenn Hegar, R-Katy, to be the next comptroller of public accounts.

Land commissioner? No suspense, according to the insiders: 97 percent of them think it will be George P. Bush. A similarly large majority — 88 percent — picks Nathan Hecht to win the race for chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court.

Two other races are muddles. While 30 percent pick J Carnes to be the next agriculture commissioner, about a fifth point to Sid Miller and another fifth like Eric Opiela. In the race for railroad commissioner, the favorites were Malachi Boyuls at 40 percent and Wayne Christian at 36 percent.

As always, we collected remarks along the way and a sampling follows. The full set is attached.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

.

Who will be the governor-elect at this time next year?

• "Don't kid yourselves, Greg Abbott is governor-elect right now."

• "And suddenly it feels a lot like 1990...everyone remembers the Clayton Williams inauguration right!!!!!"

• "Abbott will make liberals wish they had Rick Perry back."

• "Too much money, too much momentum and too many Republicans."

• "It will be much closer that past elections, but straight party pulls will give Abbott the win."

• "Wendy can't get above 45 or 46 percent and every rational adult in Texas knows it."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

.

Who’ll be the lieutenant governor-elect?

• "It's going to be Patrick, but boy am I wishing I am wrong."

• "Money conquers ALL!!!!"

• "All those women who just can't bring themselves to vote for Wendy Davis will feel redeemed by their vote for Van de Putte. THIS is the race to watch."

• "I can't believe the guy who pissed everybody in the Senate off within two minutes of stepping foot in the Chamber is likely to be its next president..."

• "Who knows, maybe knowledge of Civil War history will be the deciding factor in this race."

• "Van De Putte has a better chance than Davis of winning statewide -- not because she is a Latina, but because the boys running for Lite Gov have behaved like such dolts and even conservative Texans can only take so much hooey. Still Van De Putte and none of the guys on the GOP ticket are Ted Cruz -- ultimately Dewhurst will return."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

.

Who’ll be the attorney general-elect?

• "Does Branch's Dallas money and network of state legislators win the day, or does the Austin crowd get Smitherman across the finish line? Stay tuned..."

• "Barry Smitherman is an entertaining, unkempt version of Greg Abbott. Gimme."

• "No idea but a lot of the conventional wisdom crowd is betting the farm that the lunatic fringe won't dominate the primaries. Jump ball, that. Branch will likely have the most professionally run operation."

• "Thankfully, the State of Texas is not Collin County writ large. Ken Paxton is about to learn that lesson."

• "Texans want a proven conservative and Paxton's perfect conservative voting record in the House and Senate is most convincing."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

.

Who’ll be the comptroller-elect?

• "Hegar is the most organized, most polished, and most visible candidate."

• "I am just saying Glenn because all the insiders are telling me his going to win. But, really, no one knows on this one."

• "He's the serious grown-up in the race."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

.

Who’ll be the land commissioner-elect?

• "Didn't we already have this election?"

• "Surprised this question was asked…."

• "The George Bush name is not positive right now."

• "Bush will be the top vote getter in a contested statewide race."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

.

Who’ll be the agriculture commissioner-elect?

• "I wish I could say who, but this is a crap shoot. None have any statewide name recognition, but an R should win it."

• "No matter the outcome, it's the livestock, fruits and vegetables that will be hurt by this election."

• "Kinky is the only name that most people will recognize. No one who goes by 'III' can be a real ag commissioner."

• "Nobody knows, nobody cares"

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

.

Who’ll be the railroad commissioner-elect?

• "Boyuls has the right experience, the right message, and lots of big-name support."

• "How could you not vote for a Christian!!!"

• "The only one who can rival Sitton's money has the worse ballot name of the year. The legislature needs to address this commission. This is a laughably unqualified slate of candidates for a commission with such important duties. Either appoint the commissioners or break it into multiple regional districts. Either would be better than this."

• "Steve Brown"

• "Then we can final change the commissioner to one appointed member."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

.

Who’ll be the chief justice-elect of the Texas Supreme Court?

• "Who is going to spend any real money trying to unseat the best Chief in an era of really good Chief Justices?"

• "Moody because he has a great last name to run for office. Again, everyone will be giving you a guess on this question."

• "A disproportionate share of the Houston vote will give Talton the edge in the primary."

Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Jennifer Ahrens, Victor Alcorta, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Amy Beneski, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elizabeth Christian, Elna Christopher, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Thomas Graham, John Greytok, Jack Gullahorn, Clint Hackney, Bill Hammond, Richard Hardy, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Bill Lauderback, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Kim Ross, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Christopher Shields, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Bryan Sperry, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Wednesday, Dec. 25

• Christmas Day

Tuesday, Dec. 31

• Last day for candidates to raise money for end-of-year reports

Wednesday, Jan. 1

• New Year's Day

Wednesday, Jan. 15

• Campaign finance reports due

UT-Austin President Bill Powers kept his job but only after getting a "blunt and not entirely positive" assessment of his relationships with administration at the UT System. The board took no action, withholding a vote of confidence on Powers.

Powers later testified to the select House committee investigating possible articles of impeachment against UT System Regent Wallace Hall. Powers told the panel that persistent controversy, largely stemming from the actions of a University of Texas System regent, has taken a toll on the university's reputation.

The race to replace U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Friendswood, drew six additional Republicans in the last week, bringing the full primary field to 12.

Stockman, meanwhile, lost on the NRA's endorsement in the U.S. Senate primary. The gun rights oranization stuck with friendly incumbent John Cornyn, an action which one media outlet portrayed as a coup for the Senate minority whip.

From rivers to roads... The Lower Colorado River Authority's board has tapped Phil Wilson, the Texas Department of Transportation's executive director, to be the agency's new general manager. Wilson, a former deputy chief of staff for Gov. Rick Perry, has been the executive director of TxDOT for about two years.

Texas A&M University named Mark Hussey as its new interim president. Regents selected Hussey, who was favored by Chancellor John Sharp, over Guy Diedrich, whose candidacy was championed by Gov. Rick Perry. In the leadup to the vote, the conflict was considered another chapter in the rivalry between frenemies Perry and Sharp.

Texas ended its fiscal year in September with a $2.6 billion surplus and lawmakers could enter the 2015 legislative session with $8 billion in its Rainy Day Fund, Comptroller Susan Combs reported, as the oil drilling boom’s impact on state coffers continues to outpace officials’ expectations.

Congressional Republicans descended on North Texas to scrutinize health care "navigators" in a field hearing highlighting their continued opposition to the Affordable Care Act. A lone Democrat on the panel said he'd rather see scrutinized Texas' refusal to expand the Medicaid program to cover childless adults.

In a lawsuit filed Wednesday, the American Civil Liberties Union alleges that U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents in El Paso subjected a U.S. citizen to unwarranted searches, including vaginal probes and a CT scan.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed five members to the Red River Boundary Commission. They are:

• State Rep. Larry Phillips, R-Sherman
• Bill Douglass of Sherman
• Thomas "Ryan" Johnson of Sherman
• William "Bill" Madden of Dallas
• Maher Maso of Frisco

Their terms expire on Dec. 31, 2015.

Nandita Berry has been named Secretary of State by Perry. She will be the first Indian-American to hold the position. The appointment becomes effective Jan. 7. She succeeds John Steen who announced his resignation last week.

Manny Flores Jr. of Austin was appointed by Perry to the Public Safety Commission for a term to expire Dec. 31, 2017.

Keith Brainard of Georgetown was appointed by Perry to the State Pension Review Board for a term to expire Jan. 31, 2019.

Robert Durón, a former deputy commissioner of finance and administration for the Texas Education Agency, has been named associate executive director of District Services for the Texas Association of School Boards (TASB)

Amanda Miller has been named political director for the Harvey Hilderbran for comptroller campaign. Miller, a former campaign manager for state Rep. Greg Bonnen, R-Friendswood, was most recently national field director for the College Republican National Committee. The campaign notes that Miller is also the daughter of state Rep. Doug Miller, R-New Braunfels.

The National Rifle Association and Texas State Rifle Association gave endorsements to two friendly incumbents in contested Republican primaries: U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and state Sen. John Carona. Cornyn also announced this week that he has the backing of the anti-abortion group, Texas Alliance for Life.

Former state Rep. Sid Miller earned the endorsement of the North Texas Tea Party in his bid to win the GOP nomination for agriculture commissioner.

Rick Gentry will retire as executive director of the Insurance Council of Texas at the end of March 2013. He has worked for the ICT since 1997.