For our biennial feature on the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are in bold. An asterisk (*) indicates an open seat, and those are rated by the apparent competitiveness of top candidates (closer = hotter). This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the March 4 primary approaches. Let us know what you think.

Changes this week: Elevated HD-92 to red. 

Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

The crowded House floor during debate on SB 1 April 4, 2013.

Voters in northern Travis County are choosing someone to fill the House seat left vacant when Mark Strama left the chamber to head Google Fiber's efforts in Austin.

The candidates in the runoff election, Celia Israel and Mike VanDeWalle, were the top two vote-getters in the first round of the special election on Nov. 5. VanDeWalle, the lone Republican in the race, won Round 1 with 39.2 percent of the vote. Israel, who beat out two other Democrats for the second spot on the runoff ballot, won 31.8 percent of the vote.

Predicting turnout in a special election is notoriously tricky, especially when it is taking place on its own and not on a broader election day. That said, Israel would seem to have a few advantages.

Yes, VanDeWalle won a plurality in Round 1. Looked at another way, 60 percent of the voters didn’t choose the Republican on the ballot. The question is whether Israel can hold on to her own voters from the first round as well as the voters who backed the other two Democratic candidates.

Israel presented herself as the candidate who paid her dues to get this far, and she enjoyed the support of the Travis County Democratic establishment, which could be a key to keeping turnout up in a special election.

And as a realtor, Israel has the backing of the Capitol’s most deep-pocketed trade association. Since Jan. 1, Israel has raised more than $75,000 — half of which came in the form of in-kind contributions from the political arm of the Texas Association of Realtors. VanDeWalle, a chiropractor, raised $10,615 from various other sources. His biggest contribution was a $4,000 donation from the political arm of the Texas Chiropractic Association.

Going into the election’s final week, Israel had a nearly 10-to-1 advantage in cash on hand — $76,379 to $8,003.

VanDeWalle’s consultant, Craig Murphy, points out, though, that the Republican had a sizable 1,100-vote lead after the first round. And with turnout looking to be about a third lower than the first round, he said Israel must ensure turnout among voters who chose neither of the candidates on the runoff ballot. If she doesn't, he said, VanDeWalle wins.

No matter who wins this time around, the pair will meet again in November, as both face uncontested primary elections. But one of them will go into the rematch having sat in a few interim legislative hearings and, more importantly, with an (I) behind his or her name.

* * * * *

Even after you’ve looked at literally thousands of lines of campaign finance disclosures, every so often you’re still going to see one item that makes you stop and say, “Hmmm.” Like this: $123,581.13.

That figure comes from the Jan. 15 campaign finance report of SD-31 GOP challenger Mike Canon, the former Midland mayor who is challenging incumbent Sen. Kel Seliger, himself a former mayor of Amarillo, in the Republican primary.

That's what Canon spent on billboards.

Billboards? In this day of advanced microtargeted voter outreach and digital advertising, this might seem a throwback — except, perhaps, in those expansive West Texas districts, where catching people in their cars might make more sense than spending big sums to chase voters across multiple media markets.

Jack Bush, speaking for the Canon campaign, confirmed the billboard buy, noting that the advertising aims to create awareness and name ID. Canon billboards pop up the length and breadth of the district, from Odessa and Andrews to Dumas and Dalhart.

As a footnote, Bush noted that the initial buy was even bigger before the campaign decided to drop Midland from the list of billboard sites.

Enlarge Marjorie Kamys Cotera

Democratic candidate for Governor of Texas, Sen. Wendy Davis, speaks to press after meeting with volunteers at a phone bank in Austin, Texas

Wayne Slater's piece on discrepancies in Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Wendy Davis' presentation of her life story has been by now entirely picked over. It's instructive, though, to look at how her campaign responded on Monday. It pushed back.

The Davis camp's statement, which began by framing the controversy as a campaign attack by her GOP rival Greg Abbott rather than an embarrassing story from a reporter the Democrats often count as a friendly, was notable for its vehemence. "I am proud of where I came from and I am proud of what I’ve been able to achieve through hard work and perseverance," Davis said. "And I guarantee you that anyone who tries to say otherwise hasn’t walked a day in my shoes."

For those of us following the ground war in Texas, that's a tell as to how the rest of this campaign will be conducted — in a word, forcefully.

Still, the focus on Davis' resume did have one big effect on the emerging contours of the race for governor. No one is talking about Davis' $12.2 million campaign haul anymore.

*****

There was one other item of note this week from the Davis campaign, the announcement that President Obama's pollster, Joel Benenson, had been brought on board to work on Davis' bid for governor. The hire is another sign of the Davis camp bringing national Democratic resources to bear in the race, following the hire of campaign manager Karin Johanson, who worked on the nationally prominent Wisconsin Senate campaign of Tammy Baldwin. There's also the Davis' campaign's close alignment with Battleground Texas, the effort to turn Texas into a swing state that is led by a pair of veterans of Obama's voter turnout machine.

*****

Two candidates for Railroad Commissioner — Ryan Sitton and former state Rep. Wayne Christian — posted huge campaign finance figures, which, it turns out, were bolstered by $1 million loans to their campaigns. The Sitton campaign, of course, issued a press release the week after the Jan. 15 campaign reports touting itself as the campaign "with Most Cash on Hand." Another candidate, Malachi Boyuls, raised the most cash of the candidates over the final half of 2013.

*****

It's been a busy week for state Rep. Jonathan Stickland, R-Bedford, who is in a hot primary contest against HEB ISD school board member Andy Cargile. Stickland, a Tea Party favorite, collected the endorsement of Rand Paul, the Kentucky senator who is eyeing a run for the presidency in 2016.

Stickland then garnered negative attention for Cargile's sharing of Facebook comments by Stickland that appear to speak in favor of union rights and gay marriage. Stickland responded by accusing Cargile of mudslinging instead of focusing on Stickland's record.

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This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: The school finance trial part deux, gubernatorial campaigns spar over the particulars of Wendy Davis' biography and voters head to the polls in the special election to replace Mark Strama.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/1jFYZWQ

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With headlines about the California marriage of Houston Mayor Annise Parker and her long-time partner, Kathy Hubbard, various lawsuits against state “defense of marriage” laws in Utah and Texas and elsewhere, and ongoing conversations about domestic partner benefits, we asked the insiders to weigh in this week.

We started with whether Texas will “eventually” recognize some form of same-sex unions, without putting a date on when. A quarter of the insiders said Texas will eventually recognize same-sex marriages; another 37 percent said state law will someday recognize civil unions and 27 percent said Texas won’t ever recognize either one as a matter of law.

The majority — 59 percent — said the state should offer benefits to the same-sex partners of state employees. Two thirds of the insiders do not expect these unions to be an issue in this year’s campaigns, and 61 percent said the unions won’t be a legislative issue in 2015.

We collected verbatim comments along the way and the full set is attached. Here’s a sampling:

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Will the state of Texas eventually recognize same-sex marriages or civil unions?

• "I believe Mayor Parker of Houston sent a clear message when she waited until after her election to get married. Houston's electorate is approaching 70% democrat, but polling showed that even democrats have a hard time swallowing gay marriage. I think civil unions will be more acceptable."

• "What does eventually mean? In 100 years?"

• "Eventually they will be compelled to do so by the federal courts."

• "It certainly won't happen overnight. But with more court cases in the works, and some that have already been filed in Texas, it looks like we're headed to a day where the state won't have a choice."

• "Marriages are sacred and rooted in religious symbolism as between one man and one woman. No-fault divorce, contrary to popular belief, doesn't destroy the institution of marriage. They will remain so until government entities are forced (by judicial fiat or voter will) to either change it or reject it."

• "It is the civil rights movement of our era. People who oppose it will look like Strom Thurmond in 15 years."

• "Eventually? Of course. Our lifetime? Doubtful"

• "First civil unions, then marriages - by the end of the decade."

• "Civil unions? That's so 1996. Gay marriage advocates have dispensed with that transitional step now that Justice Kennedy has cleared the way for the full Monty. But gay marriage will only come to Texas by court order, and that's unlikely to happen any time soon."

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Should the state offer benefits to same-sex partners of state employees?

• "It's a slippery slope. The system will be prone to fraud. The state should first deal on whether or not to allow gay marriage in TX."

• "This is a major reason why same sex marriages must be legalized. Otherwise, people will be showing up at the office demanding insurance benefits for the really cool person they met last Friday who moved in over the weekend. There is no legal definition of 'partner' for either heterosexuals or homosexuals -- (Who am I to say someone is not in a committed relationship with someone just because they only met last week)?"

• "If the State refuses to allow a state employee to enter into a legally-recognized marriage, then the least it could do is allow the employee to provide the same benefits to his or her 'partner' I was allowed to provide for my spouse."

• "If it helps attract top talent, sure."

• "Don't we pay enough for state employees already?"

• "Not unless and until they're in a civil union or married. The state doesn't offer benefits to hetero, non-married couples. Why should non-married same-sex couples get those benefits? If the courts decide that same-sex couples deserve the benefits without marriage, then look for non-married hetero couples to seek (and get) benefits, too. Then watch the state stop offering benefits altogether--it simply cannot afford to support benefits for same-sex and hetero non-married couples, as well as married couples."

• "We're busting the budget offering the benefits to the employees we've got. We'll go broke offering it anyone else."

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Will same-sex unions be an issue in this year’s elections?

• "Leave no dog whistle unblown."

• "Maybe in Austin. Not in Texas, though. HA!"

• "I think that is a maybe really. The R's will make it an issue. However, it is becoming similar to abortion. The politicians care about it while the public shrugs its shoulders. It is an issue for the extremes."

• "Democrats have embraced this and Republicans, except for Sarah Davis, all oppose it. Not an issue. No debate."

• "Some Houston area folks might try to make it an issue because of Mayor Parker's recent act, but around the state it's not an issue that comes up when officeholders and candidates talk to voters."

• "It's hard to see how either party could benefit from the issue. True believers on both sides have already picked a party."

• "It will be an issue that will get the Democrats all lathered-up during their primaries."

• "Only in Republican primaries as a talking point."

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Will same-sex unions be an issue in next year’s legislative session?

• "It will be filed and never given a hearing by a Republican chair"

• "You betcha. And its gonna be ugly."

• "As the topic of same-sex marriage continues to swirl around the Supreme Court, members will surely file bills on the subject - especially those who want to prove their Republican bona fides."

• "The conservatives will bury it."

• "It'll become an issue if the courts make it an issue. Will SCOTUS take up the Utah case? Which other cases might come before SCOTUS between now and then that will draw out supporters of both sides of the issue?"

• "No need. DOMA is still in place."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Chris Britton, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Janis Carter, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elizabeth Christian, Elna Christopher, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Jenna Dailey, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Gay Erwin, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Thomas Graham, John Greytok, Michael Grimes, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Richard Hardy, John Heasley, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Jason Johnson, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Bill Lauderback, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Phillip Martin, Kathy Miller, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Royce Poinsett, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Ted Melina Raab, Brian Rawson, Karen Reagan, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Kim Ross, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

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Tuesday, Jan. 28

• Travis County Democratic Party's JBR Dinner featuring Cecile Richards and state Sen. Wendy Davis; Four Seasons Austin
  
• Fundraiser for state Rep. Marisa Márquez; Ruth's Chris Steak House, Austin (4:30-6 p.m.)

Wednesday, Jan. 29

• Fundraiser for state Rep. Helen Giddings; Austin Club (4:30-6:30 p.m.)

Thursday, Jan. 30

• TribLive: A Conversation With Debra Medina; Austin Club (7:30-9 a.m.)
• Fundraiser for House candidate Susan Motley; UAW #848 2218 E. Main St., Grand Prairie (6-8 p.m.)

The constitutional challenge to the state's school finance system was back in court with arguments over whether the Legislature's restoration of some of the $5.4 billion in cuts from 2011 were enough to satisfy school districts' demands. The court heard testimony first from school finance expert Lynn Moak, who said funding remains inadequate.

The Texas Department of Insurance finalized rules on enhanced training requirements and background checks on health care "navigators." The number of state-required training hours was reduced to 20 hours from an original proposal of 40 hours. A $50 registration fee for each navigator was also eliminated.

The execution of a Mexican national in Texas despite pressure by the Mexican government grabbed headlines. All three GOP candidates for attorney general — Dan Branch, Ken Paxton and Barry Smitherman — later said they supported the decision by Texas officials to go ahead with the execution.

Former death row inmate Anthony Graves, who who spent 18 years behind bars before being exonerated, announced that he was filing a grievance against the man who prosecuted him, alleging prosecutorial misconduct.

Texas' recent designation as one of six test states for a federal project that seeks to expand the use of drones is spotlighting how far apart border lawmakers are on using more unmanned aircraft for border security. Some argue in favor of using drones as alternative to fencing while others worry about the potential to violate Texans' civil liberties.

The Texas comptroller's office will use $5 million appropriated by state legislators to fund university-centered research on three species — freshwater mussels, the spot-tailed earless lizard and the desert massasaugas — at risk of being classified as endangered or threatened by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

An Arizona-based company plans to build a 22-megawatt solar plant in West Texas. When it's up and running — officials say the plant could be online as soon as June — it will rank among the state's largest.

The Texas Association of Realtors released a list of endorsements for these top-of-the-ticket contests:

•    Greg Abbott for governor

•    David Dewhurst for lieutenant governor

•    Glenn Hegar for comptroller

•    George P. Bush for land commissioner

•    Chief Justice Nathan Hecht and Justices Jeff Brown and Phil Johnson for the state Supreme Court

The Texas Hospital Association released its first round of endorsements, including the following top-of-the-ticket selections:

•    Greg Abbott (R) and Wendy Davis (D) for governor in their respective party primaries

•    David Dewhurst (R) for lieutenant governor in his party primary

•    Dan Branch for attorney general

•    Chief Justice Nathan Hecht and Justices Jeff Brown, Jeff Boyd and Phil Johnson for Supreme Court

State Rep. Sarah Davis, R-West University Place, has been endorsed by the gay rights group Equality Texas. The San Antonio Express-News reported she is the first Texas Republican to be given the advocacy group's backing in a primary contest. The HD-134 representative also announced endorsements from the Texas Medical Association and the Texas Hospital Association.

Mike Hasson was named Americans for Prosperity-Texas' state director, replacing Peggy Venable, who is assuming the role of senior states policy advisor for AFP. Hasson was director of business communications for United Development Funding and also spent time in the Office of the Staff Secretary under President George W. Bush.

Homero Lucero has been named the new senior vice president for government affairs and communications with the Texas Travel Industry Association. As part of his duties in the newly created position, he will head up the group's PAC and grassroots functions.