For our list of the most competitive legislative and congressional seats in the state, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest in and heat generated by a particular race, then assigning each group a nice loud color.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are in bold. Open seats are rated by the apparent margin between top candidates (closer is hotter) and the threat to the incumbent party's hold on the district. Inside each color, the races are listed by district — not by heat.

Changes this week: We raised HD-94 to orange from yellow and dropped HD-144 to yellow from orange. Early voting starts in less than two weeks.

Enlarge Ross Ramsey

.

Enlarge Graphic by Todd Wiseman

With 30-day campaign reports published this week, we present the topline fundraising numbers for the major-party candidates in the races highlighted in the Texas Weekly Hotlist.

In addition, we include the top three donors to each of those candidates. Third-party candidates are being omitted for one simple reason — with the exception of a single candidate, HD-94 Libertarian candidate Robert Harris, no third-party candidate reported any fundraising activity.

In format, we follow the hotlist's priorities, listing first the red races, followed by the orange races and then then the yellow races. The candidate representing the party that currently holds the seat is listed first.

Red Races

SD-10:

Libby Willis (D)

Contributions: $ 744,697.88                       Expenditures: $ 330,788.85

Cash on Hand: $ 474,255.70

Top 3 Donors: Back to Basics PAC — $500,000; AFSCME — $25,000; Annie's List — $20,000

Konni Burton (R)

Contributions: $ 335,387.65                       Expenditures: $ 140,287.22

Cash on Hand: $ 200,943.78

Top 3 Donors: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC — $77,200; Dick Weekley — $25,000; Texans for Education Reform PAC — $25,000

*********

HD-23:

Susan Criss (D)

Contributions: $ 279,955.85                       Expenditures: $ 160,660.09

Cash on Hand: $ 273,556.64

Top 3 Donors: Back to Basics PAC — $100,000; Amber Mostyn — $100,000; Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC — $11,393.41

Wayne Faircloth (R)

Contributions: $ 155,602.06                       Expenditures: $ 43,482.36

Cash on Hand: $ 157,104.05

Top 3 Donors: Texas Republican Representatives Campaign Committee — $26,500; Texans for Education Reform PAC — $25,000; Republican Party of Texas/TX Victory Account — $8,000

*********

HD-105:

Rodney Anderson (R)

Contributions: $ 171,099.84                       Expenditures: $ 115,119.19

Cash on Hand: $ 73,383.64

Top 3 Donors: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC — $31,530.65; Texans for Education Reform PAC — $25,000; Texas Association of Realtors PAC — $20,000

Susan Motley (D)

Contributions: $ 145,849.23                       Expenditures: $ 74,081.30

Cash on Hand: $ 44,679.87

Top 3 Donors: Back to Basics PAC — $25,000; Texas Organizing Project PAC — $24,603.92; Texans for Insurance Reform — $ 21,772.96

Orange Races

HD-43:

J.M. Lozano* (R)

Contributions: $ 260,875.14                       Expenditures: $ 103,872.91

Cash on Hand: $ 52,979.73

Top 3 Donors: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC — $85,693.62; Associated Republicans of Texas — $50,000; Texas Republican Representatives Campaign Committee — $47,581.52

Kim Gonzalez (D)

Contributions: $ 77,679.58              Expenditures: $ 47,807.80

Cash on Hand: $ 27,986.01

Top 3 Donors: Back to Basics PAC — $25,000; Texas House Democratic Campaign Commitee — $9,508; Annie's List — $4,860

*********

HD-94:

Tony Tinderholt (R)

Contributions: $ 25,146.20              Expenditures: $ 22,044.11

Cash on Hand: $ 5,190.35

Top 3 Donors: Empower Texans PAC — $5,000; Jeff Sandefer — $5,000; Texans for Education Reform PAC — $2,500

Cole Ballweg (D)

Contributions: $ 20,457.00              Expenditures: $ 37,268.09

Cash on Hand: $ 12,688.12

Top 3 Donors: Thomas Ballweg — $3,000; Texas State Teachers Association PAC — $2,000; Steven Poole/Texas AFT/Arlington Professional Fire Fighters Association PAC/George Morey — $1,000

*********

HD-113:

Cindy Burkett* (R)

Contributions: $ 188,011.82                       Expenditures: $ 145,794.92

Cash on Hand: $ 87,823.14

Top 3 Donors: Texas Republican Representatives Campaign Committee — $46,500; Texans for Education Reform PAC — $25,000; Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC — $20,000

Milton Whitley (D)

Contributions: $ 47,632.77              Expenditures: $ 21,176.20

Cash on Hand: $ 31,046.31

Top 3 Donors: Back to Basics PAC — $25,000; Battleground Texas — $4,656.37; Texas Association of Consumer Lawyers PAC — $3,000

*********

HD-117:

Philip Cortez* (D)

Contributions: $ 82,469.83              Expenditures: $ 66,150.83

Cash on Hand: $ 48,670.34

Top 3 Donors: Back to Basics PAC — $20,000; Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC — $12,000; Texas State Teachers Association PAC — $5,000

Rick Galindo (R)

Contributions: $ 57,327.50              Expenditures: $ 15,954.35

Cash on Hand: $ 25,161.41

Top 3 Donors: Texans for Education Reform — $20,000; Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC — $15,067.50; Associated Republicans of Texas — $14,100

Yellow Races

HD-50:

Celia Israel* (D)

Contributions: $ 49,490.00              Expenditure: $ 51,314.98

Cash on Hand: $ 32,181.24

Top 3 Donors: Texas Association of Realtors PAC — $10,000; Lee Manford/Lew Aldridge/Lloyd Doggett for Congress/SW Liuna PAC — $1,050

Mike VanDeWalle (R)

Contributions: $ 16,550.00              Expenditures: $ 2,670.11

Cash on Hand: $ 11,266.33

Top 3 Donors: Republican Party of Texas/TX Victory Account — $5,000; Austin Republican Women PAC/Workman for Texas/Guy & Diane Goodwin Trust/Mark Marquardt — $1,000

*********

HD-107:

Kenneth Sheets* (R)

Contributions: $ 300,961.95                       Expenditures: $ 173,296.15

Cash on Hand: $ 186,440.37

Top 3 Donors: Texas Republican Representatives Campaign Committee — $69,675; Associated Republicans of Texas — $50,000; Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC — $45,000

Carol Donovan (D)

Contributions: $ 64,210.31              Expenditures: $ 91,974.22

Cash on Hand: $ 74,897.00

Top 3 Donors: Daniel Donovan — $10,000; Battleground Texas — $5,081.92; Joseph Grissaffi/Annie's List — $5,000

*********

HD-115:

Matt Rinaldi (R)

Contributions: $ 37,060.00              Expenditures: $ 5,242.74

Cash on Hand: $ 34,858.19

Top 3 Donors: Texans for Education Reform PAC — $7,500; Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC/Jeff Sandefer — $5,000

Paul Stafford (D)

Contributions: $ 16,165.56              Expenditures: $ 15,685.88

Cash on Hand: $ 10,591.38

Top 3 Donors: Battleground Texas — $3,350.56; Texas State Teachers Assocation PAC — $2,000; Law Offices of James & Reynolds/Thomas Johnson/Terry Barker/Rafael Anchia/Harry Leatherwood — $1,000

*********

HD-144:

Mary Ann Perez* (D)

Contributions: $ 95,538.55              Expenditures: $ 48,324.96

Cash on Hand: $ 105,724.57

Top 3 Donors: Texas Organizing Project PAC — $10,864.39; Farmers Employee and Agent PAC of Texas — $10,000; Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC — $6,000

Gilbert Peña (R)

Contributions: $ 2,633.16                Expenditures: $ 395.91

Cash on Hand: $ 2,068.00

Top 3 Donors: Texas Federation of Republican Women — $1,100; Willian Treneer — $1,033.16; Associated Republicans of Texas — $500

*********

HD-149

Hubert Vo* (D)

Contributions: $ 64,150.00              Expenditures: $ 30,110.31

Cash on Hand: $ 59,712.79

Top 3 Donors: Texas Association of Realtors PAC — $10,000; Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC — $8,500; Border Health PAC — $5,000

Al Hoang (R)

Contributions: $ 21,956.72              Expenditures: $ 25,922.10

Cash on Hand: $ 20,692.61

Top 3 Donors: Vincent Chau — $5,000; Liem Phan — $4,000; Texas Federation of Republican Women PAC — $1,200

_{*Editor's note: Candidates marked with an asterisk are incumbents}

Enlarge Illustration by Todd Wiseman

One newly sworn-in Republican state senator and five GOP Senate candidates have sent a warning shot in the direction of the Texas Ethics Commission, advising the panel to refrain from passing rules that would require politically oriented nonprofit groups to disclose their donors.

In a letter sent over the weekend to Ethics Commission Chairman Jim Clancy, the six Republicans said the commission was overstepping its bounds by attempting action on something that was considered last session by the Legislature. A bill that contemplated doing something similar to what the Ethics Commission is considering now made it to the governor's desk, where it was vetoed.

"We the undersigned strongly discourage the TEC from any attempt to usurp the constitutional authority of the legislative and executive branches by overstepping your authority. Legislating from the TEC bench — seeking to go around the legislative process to enact a law that failed the legislative process — is not something we will support," the group wrote.

The letter writers include state Sen. Charles Perry, R-Lubbock; SD-2 candidate Bob Hall; SD-7 candidate Paul Bettencourt; SD-8 candidate Van Taylor; SD-10 candidate Konni Burton; and SD-16 candidate Donald Huffines.

*****

Here's the week in endorsements:

• Republican lieutenant governor candidate Dan Patrick: Texas Association of Realtors Political Action Committee (TREPAC)

• Republican state comptroller candidate Glenn Hegar: National Federation of Independent Business/Texas' Save America’s Free Enterprise (SAFE) Trust; Texas Civil Justice League PAC

• Democratic HD-23 candidate Susan Criss: Texas Parent PAC

• Democratic HD-94 candidate Cole Ballweg: HOSPAC, the political arm of the Texas Hospital Association;  AGFUND, the political arm of the Texas Farm Bureau; Arlington Police Association; Combined Law Enforcement Association of Texas (CLEAT)

Enlarge

This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: Fallout from the state's Ebola response won't play in the elections for most state officials. Voter regisration is over and money is in. Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick lead their opponents in the campaign dollar race.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/1rjqYfX

Enlarge

We leaned on the news for our questions this week, asking our insiders in government and politics about recent events — and future ones — that might have political import.

Most of the insiders — 73 percent — do not think an October surprise, if there is one, would affect the results of this year’s elections. Ebola is driving headlines in Texas at the moment, but not elections: 80 percent do not expect the handling of that crisis to affect any elections this year, while 16 percent said local or state elections, or both, could be affected.

Three in five insiders said Gov. Rick Perry will never go to trial on the indictments handed down earlier this year (his lawyers are currently challenging the charges).

Finally, we asked about the same-sex marriage lawsuits going on in the federal courts and 47 percent of the insiders said that law will remain legally unsettled a year from now; 27 percent think those marriages will be legal in a year and 24 percent think they will be illegal. Only 2 percent checked the box next to “Don’t know.”

As always, we collected verbatim comments along the way and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Enlarge Emily Albracht

.

Do you think this year's election results could be affected by an October surprise?

• "There is so much noise with the Ebola, Middle East, Somalia, economy, government gridlock and sundry Washington scandals that a surprise cannot get through. "

• "Voters are more savvy so the tactic is less effective."

• "It's the beauty of Octobers and elections - there can always be a surprise of some sort and often what is expected or routine for some is a surprise for some one else."

• "As they say in the Valley, 'that rice is cooked.'"

• "Seems like there's always something lurking out there . . . but it would have to be a big something to make a difference."

• "ooohhh What's the surprise? Tell us! Tell us!"

• "Could be, sure. But the efficacy of October surprises is not as great as once was before the time of instant communications. It used to be a surprise could be rolled out and the opposing candidate would have no time to respond. With the expansion of 24 hour news, social media and around the clock campaign operations, campaigns can respond to almost anything."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

.

Will government officials’ handling of Ebola in Texas figure into this year’s elections?

• "Already has. The Washington DC gridlock and general incompetence has negatively impacted the public's confidence in governments ability to do anything."

• "They'll blame the feds..."

• "Dallas' Mayor and County Judge are DISASTERS! It should cost the Democrats."

• "Maybe in Dallas but not beyond."

• "What could possibly go wrong with Texas' handling of a deadly and highly contagious virus, with no known cure?"

• "If the handling of the Ebola matter is made an issue, it has a very real potential for affecting the elections. From my discussions it appears that there is a great deal of skepticism on how the Ebola matter is being handled and the potential for a real crisis."

• "It seems the elected officials were all over it. To the extent there was any issue, it was within the hospital itself, where information was not properly shared."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

.

Will Rick Perry ever go to trial after his indictment earlier this year?

• "What's the incentive for the State to drop its charges? If it does, it effectively proves Perry's point that it was all political."

• "Somehow, the battery of lawyers who have been retained should be able to get him out on some technicality."

• "A trial in Travis County is possible, and even a conviction. Will that conviction be upheld - No."

• "Nobody in the elected class, including judges, thinks a trial is a good idea. They'll try to get it taken care of without a trial."

• "Tom Delay.v2?"

Enlarge Emily Albracht

.

What will be the law on same-sex marriages in Texas a year from now?

• "It should always be illegal as it is an illicit disgrace to the sanctity of marriage. Society should not have to accept or tolerate sinful behavior. If someone chooses to make bad choices then they should ensure the consequences of those. Everyone else should not be expected to embrace, recognize or fund their behavior."

• "The 5th Circuit is reviewing briefs now on Texas law and constitution. That court is less activist than the others that have rammed the issue in other states--AGAINST the will of the people."

• "Like it or not, gay people in Texas having a legally binding union is Inevitable."

• "The 5th Circuit will overturn the Texas law but the Supreme Court still will not have taken up the issue. "

• "US Sup Ct will legalize it for all states, but a year from now it might remain unsettled."

• "In 30 years, we're going to look back at this law and say, 'what were we thinking?' and 'why did we care?'"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Victor Alcorta, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, William Chapman, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Thomas Graham, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Susan Hays, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Jason McElvaney, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Kim Ross, Grant Ruckel, Tyler Ruud, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Friday, Oct. 10

• State Rep. Eric Johnson, D-Dallas, Texas/OU birthday fundraiser; 3102 Oak Lawn Ave., Dallas (11:30 a.m.-1 p.m.)
• State Rep. Sarah Davis, R-West University Place, Texas/OU fundraiser; 3015 Oak Lawn Ave., Dallas (4:30-6:30 p.m.)

Monday, Oct. 13

• State Sen. José Rodríguez, D-El Paso, fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6:30 p.m.)

Tuesday, Oct. 14

• CPPP 2014 Hobby Policy Summit, 500 E. Fourth St., Austin (Oct 14-16)

Wednesday, Oct. 15

• GOP agriculture commissioner candidate Sid Miller fundraiser featuring House Speaker Joe Straus; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6:30 p.m.)
• State Reps. Tim Kleinschmidt, R-Lexington, and Charles "Doc" Anderson, R-Waco, fundraiser featuring House Speaker Joe Straus; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6:30 p.m.)
• State Rep. Tan Parker, R-Flower Mound, Annual Fiesta Fundraiser; 4121 Barton Creek, Highland Village (5:30 p.m.)

Thursday, Oct. 16

• Conference — Rehydrating Texas: Regulatory Reform to Keep Water Flowing for Texans; 1100 Congress Ave., Austin (11:30 a.m.-1 p.m.)
  
• State Reps. David Simpson, R-Longview, Matt Schaefer, R-Tyler, and Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola, fundraiser featuring U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas; 18654 CR 418, Tyler (6:30-9:30 p.m.)
• Conference — Intelligence Reform and Counterterrorism After a Decade: Are We Smarter and Safer?; 200 E. Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd./1900 University Ave., Austin (Oct. 16-18)

U.S. District Judge Nelva Gonzales Ramos ruled Thursday evening that Texas' voter ID law discriminates against minority voters and was enacted with discriminatory intent, violating Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Furthermore, she ruled that the law creates a poll tax in violation of the 14th and 24th amendments to the U.S. Constitution. The state plans an immediate appeal to the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals.

Thomas Eric Duncan, the Liberian man who became the first diagnosed U.S. case of infection by the Ebola virus, died Wednesday in Dallas. His death led to renewed questions whether his prognosis would have been better had he been diagnosed earlier. He was sent home with antibiotics the first time he went to the hospital, only to be placed in isolation two days later.

The only debate scheduled in the U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Republican John Cornyn and Democratic challenger David Alameel will be broadcast dubbed into Spanish by Univision a day after the Oct. 24 encounter. Options are being explored to broadcast the debate in English on other outlets or on a secondary audio channel on the Univision feed. But it appeared possible, if not likely, that the debate could end up being broadcast only in Spanish.

Candidates and officeholders submitted their 30-day out campaign finance reports, which detail fundraising and spending from July 1 through Sept. 25. The GOP candidates at the top of the ticket — Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick — raised significantly more than their Democratic rivals. Abbott made further news with his announcement that he still has more than $30 million in his campaign accout, spurring speculation he may keep a healthy reserve to intimidate would-be challengers in 2018.

San Antonio residents asked at a City Council meeting on Wednesday for more time before a decision is made to build a new pipeline intended to bring 16 billion gallons of water to the Alamo City annually. At $3.4 billion, the project would make for some of the most expensive water sold in Texas.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, reacted to the U.S. Supreme Court's refusal to address lower courts' rulings against bans on same-sex marriage by proposing a constitutional amendment that would prevent a state ban on same-sex marriage from being overturned.

Disclosure: Univision is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Brett P. Giroir was named by Gov. Rick Perry to direct the newly created Texas Task Force on Infectious Disease Preparedness and Response. A week after the country's first case of Ebola appeared in Dallas, the 17-member task force is charged with better equipping the state to handle a pandemic. Membership includes the heads of agencies who would be involved in pandemic response as well as public health experts and epidemiologists. The group will prepare two reports with findings and recommendations — the first one due Dec. 1 and the second one due Feb. 1.

Surendra Varma of Lubbock was named by Perry to the Texas Medical Board for a term to expire April 13, 2019.

Newly sworn-in state Sen. Charles Perry, R-Lubbock, has been tapped to join the Senate Higher Education Committee, taking the seat held previously by his predecessor, Robert Duncan.

Marti Johnson has joined Houston-based Strategic Public Affairs as a director after stints in the Texas Department of Agriculture and the staff of state Sen. Glenn Hegar, R-Katy.

Caroline Joiner was named executive director for Texas and the southeast region for TechNet, a group dedicated to growing the technology industry. Joiner served in the George W. Bush White House at the U.S. Department of Commerce. Since 2009, she has been an independent government affairs consultant. Her clients include the Texas Cable Association and National Instruments.

Garrett Groves is joining the staff of the Center for Public Policy Priorities next week as Program Director for Economic Opportunity. He is a former National Governors Association (NGA) senior policy analyst.

Gary Grief, executive director of the Texas Lottery, has been inducted into the Public Gaming Research Institute's Lottery Industry Hall of Fame. Grief has served as the Lottery's executive director since March 2010.

Deaths: Harley Clark of Austin, 78, retired district judge and the man credited with inventing the Hook 'Em Horns sign, the singular gesture of dedication performed by UT fans.

Disclosure: The Texas Cable Association is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.