For our list of the most competitive legislative and congressional seats in the state — the last one before Election Day — we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest in and heat generated by a particular race, then assigning each group a nice loud color.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are in bold. Open seats are rated by the apparent margin between top candidates (closer is hotter) and the threat to the incumbent party's hold on the district. Inside each color, the races are listed by district — not by heat.

We made no changes this week. And we'll come back after the election and attach the prognostications to the actual results. It seems like the only fair thing to do.

Enlarge Ross Ramsey

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Enlarge Graphic by Todd Wiseman

With eight-day reports out this week, we present an abridged version of the topline fundraising numbers for the major-party candidates in the contests featured in the Texas Weekly Hotlist. We are focusing specifically on the four races we consider "the hottest of the hot" — SD-10, HD-23, HD-105 and HD-94.

One takeaway is apparent from these figures. SD-10 and HD-23, reckoned the two most purely swing districts in the Legislature, are both seeing a tremendous amount of late money flowing into those races. The political arm of the tort reform group, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, dropped nearly $1 million into the campaign of Konni Burton, the Republican candidate in SD-10. The group spent an additional $335,000 on the campaign of Wayne Faircloth, the Republican candidate in HD-23.

The Democratic candidates in those swing districts are getting their biggest contributions from trial lawyers and also from Annie's List, a group dedicated to electing Democratic woman legislators. Libby Willis, who is runnig in SD-10, received $350,000 from the law firm of Democratic superdonor Steve Mostyn and another $255,000 from the trial lawyer-funded Texans for Insurance Reform. She received another $230,000 from Annie's List.

Susan Criss in HD-23 had a similar mix of contributions from Mostyn, trial lawyers and Annie's List.

In each race, we include the topline numbers and top three donors from the eight-day report, which collects fundraising activity from Sept. 26 through Oct. 25. We also include significant contributions included in telegram reports for contributions made after the Oct. 25 cutoff.

SD-10:

Libby Willis (D)

Contributions: $ 1,076,141.78                       Expenditures: $ 1,171,548.32

Cash on Hand: $ 92,377.72

Top 3 Donors: Mostyn Law Firm — $350,000; Texans for Insurance Reform — $255,508; Annie's List — $230,000

Late contributions of note: Don Henley — $10,000; Planned Parenthood Texas Votes PAC — $6,626.80

Konni Burton (R)

Contributions: $ 1,513,935.55                       Expenditures: $ 745,880.53

Cash on Hand: $ 214,098.20

Top 3 Donors: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC — $656,235; W.E. Borsarge Jr., David Weekley and Tim Dunn — $100,000

Late contributions of note: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC — $302,162.55; Texans for Education Reform PAC — $25,000; Associated Republicans of Texas — $25,000

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HD-23:

Susan Criss (D)

Contributions: $ 212,560.64                       Expenditures: $ 384,920.28

Cash on Hand: $ 23,766.24

Top 3 Donors: Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC — $76,651.12; Mostyn Law Firm — $50,000; Annie's List — $25,000

Late contributions of note: Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC — $25,000; House Democratic Campaign Committee — $10,000

Wayne Faircloth (R)

Contributions: $ 576,867.68                       Expenditures: $ 174,468.04

Cash on Hand: $ 142,668.91

Top 3 Donors: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC — $225,000; Associated Republicans of Texas — $190,195.72; Dick Weekley — $45,000

Late contributions of note: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC — $109,355.90; Farmers Employee and Agent PAC of Texas — $10,000

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HD-105:

Rodney Anderson (R)

Contributions: $ 144,016.28                       Expenditures: $ 72,396.00

Cash on Hand: $ 87,438.33

Top 3 Donors: Republican Party of Texas — $30,430.89; Associated Republicans of Texas — $25,000; Texas Association of Realtors PAC — $16,329.83

Late contributions of note: Associated Republicans of Texas — $10,000

Susan Motley (D)

Contributions: $ 112,093.94                       Expenditures: $ 69,597.01

Cash on Hand: $ 50,442.45

Top 3 Donors: Annie's List — $15,427; Texans for Insurance Reform — $10,757.29; Texas Organizing Project PAC — $10,659.91

Late contributions of note: House Democratic Campaign Committee — $1,000

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HD-94:

Tony Tinderholt (R)

Contributions: $ 22,272.69              Expenditures: $ 8,699.82

Cash on Hand: $ 18,790.59

Top 3 Donors: Bill Zedler — $2,700; Republican Party of Texas — $2,500; Andy Nguyen — $1,200

Cole Ballweg (D)

Contributions: $ 37,476.74              Expenditures: $ 14,800.37

Cash on Hand: $ 29,868.79

Top 3 Donors: Texas Parent PAC — $13,240.85; Robert Patton — $5,000; Arlington Professional Fire Fighters Association PAC — $4,698.89

Late contributions of note: Advertising Concepts Enterprises (in-kind) — $5,672.42; Texas Hospital Association PAC — $3,000; Charles Butt, House Democratic Campaign Committee — $2,500

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This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: Election Day is almost here, and candidates are making their last push to get voters to the polls; the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll released more findings this week; and the Tribune released an interactive feature focusing on how oil and natural gas production is transforming the state's economy, culture and environment.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/1p7Gkdm

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For this final survey of political and governmental insiders before the general election, we asked about the races on our Hot List, and rather than list them for you, we’ll just refer you to the charts. But notice the tie in HD-23 and “don’t knows” in the 30 percent to 40 percent ranges in some other races. Certainty is a relative thing.

We collected verbatim comments along the way and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Who will win the race in CD-23?

• "This is a district where POTUS is upside down by 30 points. However, the GOP has once again failed to do outreach to Latino voters. And that's No Bueno."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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• "Stupid move by NRCC to have Gov. Perry front for Hurd. Perry moves nobody, except negatively."

• "The Democrats need to do some real soul-searching if Will Hurd manages to beat the incumbent, Pete Gallego."

• "Two reasons why Gallego wins. 1 Corvalan takes votes from Hurd, and 2. Gallego works the district, he is in front of the constituency.”

• "Pete has a unique quality to attract crossover voters since they know the man."

Who will win the race in SD-10?

• "There are too many angry republicans voting in that county and they'll elect one of their own.”

• "A whole lotta shaking' going on here, this will be the one to watch...."

• "Republican swing at end will benefit Burton."

• "Anyone who has been anointed by Sen. Cruz in Texas this cycle has won. Konni Burton will continue that streak."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Who will win the race in HD-23?

• "The trial lawyers will lose this one, by a close margin.”

• "Right time, wrong candidate.”

• "The D's hold this seat"

Who will win the race in HD-43?

• "Everybody loves Raymond and J.M.”

• "Pepito wins! Pepito wins! Again.”

• "Lozano could be in trouble depending on the Valley turn out"

Who will win the race in HD-50?

• "It's Austin. She'll win.”

• "I'm calling a huge upset here! VanDeWalle has done 30,000 pieces of mail, over 10,000 calls, and radio with just $40,000."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Who will win the race in HD-94?

• "As a republican I hope Tinderholt does not win. He is a great example of why we should eliminate straight ticket voting in this state.”

• "The tinderbox will explode before midnight on Election Day"

• "Wish Cole could win this one, but it's crazy Tarrant County. And Tinderholt will find a Metroplex cadre ready to take him in."

Who will win the race in HD-105?

• "Not sure anyone works harder than Rodney.”

• "Anderson knocked off Linda Harper-Brown so he had better seal the deal by holding the seat for the Rs."

• "It's tight, but Anderson will pull it off."

Who will win the race in HD-107?

• "..oops, take that back about Rodney. Not sure anyone works harder than Sheets.”

• "This will be the last chance the Ds have to take this seat. Sheets wins: 53-47"

• "My upset pick"

Who will win the race in HD-108?

• "Highland Park? Who cares. Can we trade these two, Dan Branch and a player to be named later for someone else?”

• "Soon D but not yet"

• "With endorsements ranging from KBH to Giuliani, and Bob Rowling fundraisers, how can Meyer lose this one?"

Who will win the race in HD-113?

• "Working hard ... one of the few toss up districts"

Who will win the race in HD-115?

• "Practicing his seconding speech for Turner."

Who will win the race in HD-117?

• "He's too decent a guy to lose that race.”

• "The odds are with Cortez."

Who will win the race in HD-144?

• "D district"

Who will win the race in HD-149?

• "Republicans are smart to pick an Asian candidate. But, they need to put more work into that district."

Our thanks to this week’s participants: Brandon Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Tom Banning, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, John Esparza, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Keir Murray, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Grant Ruckel, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Robert Scott, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Friday, Oct. 31

• Former presidential candidate and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul addresses the National Center for Policy Analysis; 555 S. Lamar, Dallas (12-1:15 p.m.)

Saturday, Nov. 1

• GOP CD-23 candidate Will Hurd "get out the vote" rally; 16535 Huebner Rd., San Antonio (9:30 a.m.)

Sunday, Nov. 2

• Daylight Savings Time ends. Fall back an hour.

Tuesday, Nov. 4

• Election Day

Early voting wraps up today with turnout numbers not keeping pace with population growth over the past four years. That could mean trouble for Democratic statewide candidates hoping to expand the electorate in their efforts to break a 20-year losing streak.

The Texas Ethics Commission adopted a rule on Wednesday that would require politically active nonprofits to disclose the identity of their donors. The action, which had been anticipated for several months, is likely to spur litigation and further legislation next year.

The San Antonio City Council voted on Thursday to move ahead on a controversial $3.4 billion water pipeline project that would increase the city's water supply by up to 16 billion gallons annually. Critics claimed the project wasn't necessary and could clash with other water management methods, such as conservation.

Attempting to defuse further controversy, Houston Mayor Annise Parker on Wednesday withdrew subpoenas against five pastors who were working to repeal the city's equal rights ordinance. Drawing ire was a request in the original subpoena for the pastors' sermons.

Gov. Rick Perry continued his embrace of the national stage in a Monday speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, saying the nation wanted a "clean break" from President Barack Obama.

Texas regulators on Tuesday tightened rules for wells that dispose of oilfield waste, a response to the spate of earthquakes in North Texas.

Gov. Rick Perry named five members — Arthur “Art” Eisenberg of North Richland Hills, Sheree Hughes-Stamm of Spring, Harvey Kessler of Southlake, Robert "Bobby" Lerma of Brownsville and Ashraf Mozayani of Houston — to the Texas Forensic Science Commission. They will serve terms to expire Sept. 1, 2016, with the exception of Lerma whose term expires Sept. 1, 2015.

Donna King of Leander was appointed judge of the 26th Judicial District Court in Williamson County by Perry for a term to expire at the 2016 general election.

Aimee Bertrand leaves the post of Director of Community Engagement and Media for the Houston Apartment Association to join the Harris County Office of Legislative Relations as Legislative Coordinator.

Former Secretary of Defense and CIA Director Robert Gates endorsed GOP challenger Will Hurd in the CD-23 contest. It is Gates' first and only endorsement of the election cycle.

The Alliance of Independent Pharmacists of Texas endorsed Republican Sid Miller for agriculture commissioner and state Rep. J.D. Sheffield, R-Gatesville, for re-election.

Deaths: Starke Taylor, 92, cotton merchant and past president of the Texas Cotton Association who was elected Dallas mayor in 1983 in his first appearance on a political ballot. He served two terms.