The Texas Weekly Hot List

For our list of the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' are indicated by an (i). An asterisk (*) indicates an open seat, and those are rated by the apparent competitiveness of top candidates (closer = hotter). This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the March 4 primary approaches. Let us know what you think.

Races involving incumbents are listed first; open seats follow.

Changes this week: Added HD-90 in orange.

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And Down the Stretch They Come...

*Correction appended. 

With just a handful of days remaining before Primary Day, state Rep. Lon Burnam, D-Fort Worth, is issuing a call for out-of-town volunteers to help him win re-election.

In a somewhat dire sounding message to supporters, Burnam writes, “This election is much closer than we'd like and unfortunately we haven't been seeing the voter turnout that we need to win. Phone-banking and block-walking are what drives turnout.

Burnam’s primary opponent is Ramon Romero Jr. No Republican has filed, so the winner in the primary will have his ticket punched for Austin.

The HD-90 representative is no stranger to close contests. In 2012, Burnam defeated Carlos Vasquez by 159 votes out of nearly 4,000 ballots cast. A closer look at the results shows that Burnam lost the early vote (778 to 751) and turnout on primary day (1,042 to 1,004).

In the end, it was Burnam’s sizable advantage in absentee ballots cast — 318 to 94 — that allowed the incumbent to carry the day.

Texas Weekly is elevating the HD-90 Democratic primary to orange in this week’s version of The Hot List.

*****

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has been vigilant about whether he’s been “endorsing” candidates in the upcoming party primaries or merely “supporting” them. Late last week, he made headlines by breaking out his endorsement stamp in one state Senate race.

On the receiving end was Konni Burton in the Tarrant County-based SD-10.

The Tea Party favorite is in a multi-candidate contest for the GOP nomination.

*****

Petroleum endorsements became an additional storyline in the heated GOP primary contest in Tarrant County’s HD-92 between the incumbent, Jonathan Stickland, R-Bedford, and Andy Cargile, a former high school principal.

Cargile late last week scored the endorsement of the powerful Texas Oil and Gas (TXOGA) PAC.

The next day, the Texas Petroleum PAC “reiterated” that it had endorsed Stickland.

One of these PACs is not like the other, though. While the TXOGA PAC had $250,000 in cash on hand in its last campaign finance report, the Petroleum PAC had $0.

*****

And state Rep. Myra Crownover, R-Denton, gets the award this week for most creative response to an attack mailer.

When Texans for Fiscal Responsibility sent a mail piece to voters in her district critical of her record, Crownover took to Facebook. This is what she wrote:

"Did you receive a yellow mail piece from Texans for Fiscal Responsibility this week Bring that S.I.L.L.Y. (Special Interest Lying Lobbyist Yellowcard) Card into Juniper House Coffee between now and Election Day to receive a free cup of coffee! Myra Crownover will donate $1 to the charity Serve Denton for every SILLY card collected."

Correction: A previous version of this story said U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz had endorsed state Sen. Donna Campbell, who is running for reelection. He has not formally endorsed her. 

Newsreel: Polling the Races, Moods and Weed

This week in the Newsreel: The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll looks at the 2014 races, the direction of the country and legalizing marijuana.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Endorsements...

For this last Inside Intelligence before the primary, we asked the insiders whether endorsements by Gov. Rick Perry, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and state Sen. Wendy Davis would help or hurt candidates in their respective primaries.

Overall, the answers were positive, with 50 percent saying Perry’s would help, 82 percent saying Cruz’s would help, and 64 percent saying Davis’ blessing would be positive. Few said the endorsements would be negative, but 35 percent said Perry’s would make no difference and 25 percent said the same about Davis. Only 3 percent rated a Cruz endorsement as a non-starter.

We also asked an open question — prompting the insiders to predict some surprises in next Tuesday’s results. You can see a full set of their comments on that and other questions in the attachment. Here’s a sampling:

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Would a Rick Perry endorsement help or hurt a Republican candidate in the primary?

• "A Governor's endorsement helps even if it's just for the press event."

• "Many local County officials are angry with Perry over a variety of issues. Their endorsement would be more important than his."

• "At this point, I don't think he matters."

• "Perry still carries some clout among Rs in Texas. In a primary, a Perry endorsement has weight."

• "Endorsements are overrated, period."

• "Governor Perry is the face of Republican politics in Texas. If he were running again, he would be re-elected. In a landslide."

• "He's still the Man."

• "Is he still around?"

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Would a Ted Cruz endorsement help or hurt a Republican candidate in the primary?

• "Tougher question. It might help in specific areas/communities and/or races. Like or dislike him and his politics, he has an amazing following."

• "At least that's what Sen. Paxton thinks."

• "He's the one saying what people think and doing what people want. Not that people know what they are thinking or know what they want, but they know they like Ted."

• "Premier endorsement. There is no place in the state where a Cruz endorsement doesn't provide a boost."

• "It unquestionably helps in a primary and probably scares moderates or independents away in the general."

• "Cruz's blessing is also a curse. It's arousing to both sides."

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Would a Wendy Davis endorsement help or hurt a Democratic candidate in the primary?

• "She helps, but her help and six bucks will get you a venti non-fat soy latte at Starbucks."

• "Again, it matters where in the state. Dems in urban areas would benefit significantly from her endorsement but any one in a swing or conservative race would not."

• "Are the Democrats actually having contested primaries??"

• "Statewide candidates and urban counties, likely to help. But I suspect whatever democrat candidates are left in rural Texas want to stay away from her like all Texas Democrats are staying away from Obama."

Make a prediction: What do you think will be the biggest surprise in the primary election results?

• "A Huffines upset of Carona"

• "Debra Medina in Republican Primary for Comptroller"

• "Todd Staples makes the run-off."

• "Patrick doesn't make the runoff."

• "Patterson in the runoff."

• "The winner of the US Senate primary for the Democrats; it's a crap shoot, one week out."

• "Smitherman not even close to the runoff due to a campaign that never got above the noise"

• "Paxton within single digits of Branch--and beats him in runoff."

• "Rodney Anderson beats Linda Harper Brown by a healthy margin."

• "Land Commissioner Watts"

• "J.D. Sheffield and Jim Keffer both go down."

• "Kesha Rogers does NOT win dem primary. Note hint of sarcasm..."

• "Harvey Hilderbran. Seriously! The guy every insider thought was crazy to run is proving that we are the crazies."

• "Supreme Court races will be very close and there may be an upset."

• "Carona will be defeated and Staples will make the Lt. Governor run-off with Dewhurst."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Jenny Aghamalian, Jennifer Ahrens, Victor Alcorta, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Blaine Bull, David Cabrales, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Gay Erwin, Wil Galloway, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, John Heasley, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Bill Lauderback, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Myra Leo, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Mike Moses, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Bill Pewitt, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Propes, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Nancy Sims, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Tuesday, March 4

  • Election Day

Wednesday, March 5

Thursday, March 6

  • TribLive: A Conversation With State Sen. Wendy Davis; Stateside at the Paramount, Austin (7:30-9 a.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Texas became the latest state where a court has invalidated a ban on gay marriage. The ruling is on hold while the various legal challenges make their way through the court system. Attorney General Greg Abbott on Thursday filed his intent to appeal the ruling handed down by U.S. District Judge Orlando Garcia, an appointee of President Bill Clinton, in San Antonio.

State Sen. Dan Patrick's oops moment on Twitter — a typo initially had him supporting marriage as between "ONE MAN & ONE MAN" — went viral in the aftermath of the ruling against Texas' gay marriage ban and became fodder for late night comedian Conan O'Brien later in the day.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis got a fundraising boost from Ted Nugent's appearance on the campaign trail with her GOP opponent Greg Abbott. In the latest round of campaign finance reports, Davis reported raising a combined $2.85 million among her campaign accounts and an allied effort with Battleground Texas. Abbott reported raising $2.45 million, but the Republican still maintains a nearly 3-to-1 advantage in cash on hand.

The latest edition of the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll found Greg Abbott up 11 points on Wendy Davis in the general election contest for governor. In other key findings, Texans were more optimistic about the direction of the state than the nation at large, and a strong majority favored the legalization of marijuana for either medicinal use or more general use.

The capture of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, the leader of Mexico's ruthless Sinaloa drug cartel spurred U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, to say the kingpin should be extradited to the U.S. McCaul, the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said the decision to extradite is ultimately up to Mexico, but he raised concerns based on the cartel leader's 2001 escape from prison.

Political People and their Moves

Chris Wallace has been hired as the new president and chief operating officer for the Texas Association of Business. Wallace is currently the president and CEO of the Greater Irving-Las Colinas Chamber of Commerce. His first day at TAB is May 15. Bill Hammond will continue to serve as the CEO of TAB, where he will focus on its core mission of legislative advocacy.

HHSC deputy inspector general Jack Stick is on temporary assignment as HHSC interim chief counsel. He's taking over for Steve Aragon, whose last day as chief counsel was Thursday.

Kathleen Thea Jackson of Beaumont was named by Gov. Rick Perry to the Texas Water Development Board for a term effective March 18, 2014, and to expire Feb. 1, 2015.

Beth Madison of Houston was named by Perry to the University of Houston System Board of Regents for a term to expire Aug. 31, 2015.

Caven Crosnoe of Wichita Falls, Shawn Hessing of Fort Worth and Nancy Marks of Wichita Falls were named by Perry to the Midwestern State University Board of Regents for terms to expire Feb. 25, 2020.

William F. Scott II of Nederland was named by Perry to the Lower Neches Valley Authority Board of Directors for a term to expire July 28, 2015.

Debra Medina's campaign for comptroller picked up the endorsement of state Rep. David Simpson, R-Longview, a Tea Party favorite.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the Texas Association of Business was a corporate sponsor of the Texas Tribune. (See the full list of Tribune donors below $1,000 here.) 

Quotes of the Week

I will try to elevate my vernacular to the level of those great men that I'm learning from in the world of politics.

Ted Nugent, apologizing for what he termed "streetfighter terminology" when he described President Obama as a "subhuman mongrel"

I believe Ted Nugent recognized his language was wrong and he rightly apologized. This is not the kind of language I would use or endorse in any way. It's time to move beyond this, and I will continue to focus on the issues that matter to Texans.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott, quoted by KERA's Shelley Kofler

This is an issue on which there are good, well-meaning people on both sides. And, as the lower court acknowledged today, it’s an issue that will ultimately be resolved by a higher court.

Attorney General Greg Abbott announcing his intent to appeal the ruling against Texas' gay marriage ban

You should have seen his house. He really played up his Christian credentials. On the ceiling there was a dome and around the dome there was a Bible verse. To me, he used that as a way to get us to try to put our guard down.

State Rep. Bill Zedler, R-Arlington, to The Dallas Morning News on being targeted for a scam investing opportunity