Enlarge Bob Daemmrich / Marjorie Kamys Cotera

Reps. Patricia Harless, R-Spring, and Allen Fletcher, R-Cypress, are among the handful of lawmakers who have already said they won't be back for the next legislative session.

Roughly nine months away from the party primaries, two Harris County Republicans this week announced bids to replace outgoing state Reps. Patricia Harless and Allen Fletcher.

But don’t expect those two to be the only ones to run.

Kevin Roberts, a longtime Republican activist and the COO of the Lanier Law Firm, said his campaign for Harless’ seat will focus on a “common sense, practical approach to problem-solving while upholding our strong, conservative fiscal and social principles.”

“I will fight in Austin to eliminate the franchise tax, curb the growth of property taxes, advocate for an exceptional education system in Texas, and protect a pro-business, pro-family, and pro-life atmosphere for all Texans,” Roberts said in a statement.

Tom Oliverson, meanwhile, is running for Fletcher’s seat in House District 130. Oliverson, an anesthesiologist, helped pass a bill relating to anesthesia regulations during the 2013 legislative session and was part of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s Inaugural Committee.

“I will fight to promote free markets and end burdensome regulations that cripple our businesses and hurt the Texas economy,” Oliverson said in a statement. “I will unapologetically defend the life of the unborn, fight for lower property taxes, protect our border, be an advocate for education reform, and defend our 2nd Amendment rights.”

The two candidates who launched their campaigns Tuesday are working with consultant Allen Blakemore. Harless, R-Spring, said Monday that in-party fighting contributed to her decision to leave the Legislature, while Fletcher, R-Cypress, is running for a constable spot in Harris County.

Gail Stanart, the wife of Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart, confirmed she’s also considering a bid for Harless’ seat. She has served as president of the Texas Tea Party Republican Women and said she would be the “solid long-term conservative activist Republican” if she runs.

“The decision has not yet been made, but yes, it is certainly being considered,” she said. "It is something that we’ve been looking at for a while.”

The districts — both reliably conservative — will likely be decided in the Republican primaries, which observers say could end up crowded.

“It’s very, very early,” said political consultant Jennifer Naedler. “I can’t imagine that these won’t be extremely crowded races.”

Or as Gary Polland, the former chairman of the Harris County GOP, put it: “How often do you get an open seat?”

Turnout at the March primaries will be significantly higher than usual given the 2016 presidential primaries, which could diminish the impact of the more conservative voters who reliably show up each election, said Mark P. Jones, a Rice University political scientist.

Yet if enough candidates run in the House primaries, it could spread the vote out among a wider range of candidates, potentially forcing the race to a runoff election.

“If it goes to a runoff, we’re going to have a low-visibility runoff, and that’s where Tea Party groups can play an outsized role and have a much greater than normal level of influence,” Jones said.

Enlarge Ross Ramsey

State Rep. John Frullo’s phone line is busy these days with Texans calling to thank him over passing HB 905 — a big victory for the knife rights movement.

The movement’s legislative power is, no doubt, considerably smaller than that of the National Rifle Association. But since its founding in 2006, the group Knife Rights has accumulated several legislative victories in both Congress and a handful of states.

Its latest victories include Frullo’s bill, which passed with wide support in both chambers and is awaiting Gov. Greg Abbott’s signature. The bill in effect eliminates the patchwork of local ordinances that make some pocket knives that are legal in one municipality illegal in another.

And for that, Knife Rights gave him its Freedom’s Edge Award.

“It is a neat honor,” Frullo, R-Lubbock, said. “It’s a great honor, and I think, more importantly, it helps a lot of the folks in Texas. They can carry that pocket knife now.”

Frullo said people are calling and writing to him to express their excitement over the law. But more surprising, he added, are the number of people who didn’t know the knives they’ve carried for years could be illegal in another part of Texas.

“These are people that didn’t intend to be criminals,” Frullo said. “They just happened to carry that pocket knife they always carried, and they were in violation of the law.”

Frullo, who couldn’t attend the awards dinner in Atlanta, said he’s uncertain unsure what the award will look like.

“A sheet of paper would be fine with me,” Frullo said. “I didn’t do it for the award.”

*****

Comptroller Glenn Hegar on Tuedsay certified the state's $209.4 billion budget that will guide spending over the 2016-17 fiscal biennium.

In a statement, Hegar said: “This is a fiscally sound budget that is well under the constitutional spending limit and falls within the revenue estimate our agency provided lawmakers back in January. I applaud the Legislature for passing a responsible budget that will keep the state funded for the next two years, while providing much deserved tax relief for the citizens of Texas.”

HB 1, meanwhile, currently awaits Abbott's signature.

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For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked first about the number of contested legislative primary races next year.

On the Republican side, roughly half of the insiders believed there will be between 11 and 20 contested races. Another three in 10 believed there will be between 21 and 30 contested races. The remaining responses trailed far behind.

On the Democratic side, 44 percent of the insiders thought there will be between six and 10 contested primaries. Another 27 percent pegged the number of contested races at five or less while 25 percent thought there will be between 11 and 15 contested races.

We also asked the insiders as well for suggestions for who deserves placement on the legislative best and worst lists.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Enlarge Emily Albracht

.

Looking ahead to next spring, what’s the number of contested Republican legislative primaries?

• "'Contested' means they'll have an opponent; not that the opponents will be serious challengers, right?"

• "When faced with a certain challenge, several have already resigned."

• "And perhaps another Speaker challenger"

• "School choice is top issue."

• "About the same as last cycle."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

.

And what’s the number of contested Democratic legislative primaries?

• "Sadly, they rarely challenge one another."

• "Presidential year"

Gold star time: who makes the best list for session?

• "Biggest positive impact for the state: Jane Nelson, Kevin Eltife, Joe Straus and Dennis Bonnen"

• "Stickland - His agenda is to advance Stickland and at this he is masterful."

• "House: Dennis Bonnen, John Otto, Sly Turner; Senate: Jane Nelson, Charles Schwertner, Judith Zaffirini (despite losing her leadership positions, she still passed more bills than anyone else)"

• "Straus, Anchia, Otto, Aycock, Price in the House. Nelson (although I don't know why!), Watson, Seliger, Fraser (swan song), Hancock (because I need a 5th member of the Senate)."

• "Paul Bettencourt, at least freshman of the year. An intelligent conservative."

• "The ones who are retiring because they don't want to be a part of the wheels coming off of good government."

• "No list from me because, unlike past sessions, there are very, very few who would get an A. So, having a top ten with Bs at best isn't worth constructing. Maybe Otto and Nelson."

And who makes the worst list?

• "Biggest negative impact on the state: Dan Patrick (earnest, straight-face proposal to change the accounting rules to Enron style bookkeeping)"

• "I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Jonathan Stickland."

• "Konni Burton, Donna Campbell, Bob Hall, Jeff Leach, Jonathan Stickland (pretty much anyone from the 'out of touch with reality' caucus)."

• "Dennis Bonnen, for thinking a Happy Meal-size tax reduction was a good idea. What happened to sales tax reform broadened and really lowered. Also, anyone who runs as a conservative in the primary and grows squishy in Austin after winning."

• "So much mediocrity, so much mediocrity. Where does one start? The silliest? The stupidest? The most craven? The 'respectable' ones who hurt the state the most? I'll take a pass."

• "Senator Seliger, Senator Fraser, Rep Smithee, Rep Stickland, Rep. Molly White, Rep. Frullo, Rep. Tinderholt, Sen. Konni Burton, Sen. Huffines, Rep. Scott Turner"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Snapper Carr, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Kevin Cooper, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Tom Duffy, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Tom Forbes, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, John Greytok, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Steve Minick, Mike Moses, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, A.J. Rodriguez, Jeff Rotkoff, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Sara Tays, Jay Thompson, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Saturday, June 13

• San Antonio mayoral runoff election between incumbent Ivy Taylor and former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte

And looking ahead...

Sunday, June 21

• Veto period ends, last day for Gov. Greg Abbott to say no to legislation
• Moratorium ends on contributions to statewide officeholders and members of the Legislature; aka, the return of fundraising season

With a little more than a week left in the veto period, requests for Gov. Greg Abbott to kill bills are piling up. Four ethics commissioners, acting solely on their own behalf, sent a letter to Abbott asking for vetoes of two ethics bills that were modified to allow officeholders to withhold information about a spouse's property and financial activity from personal financial statements. Over the weekend, the executive committee of the state Republican Party asked for a veto of a Senate bill reworking school academic standards that critics are calling "Common Core Lite." And progressive activists are calling on Abbott to veto budget language that cuts Planned Parenthood from a cancer screening program.

Abbott signed a bill Thursday that allows clergy members to refuse to conduct marriages that violate their beliefs. He said that because of Senate Bill 2065, "pastors now have the freedom to exercise their First Amendment rights."

Abbott on Tuesday signed House Bill 11, the comprehensive border security legislation that culminated a massive effort by lawmakers to bolster the ranks of state police, increase technology and establish intelligence operations units on the Texas-Mexico border.

Abbott also made waves this week by openly wooing General Electric to move its headquarters from Connecticut to Texas. As part of his pitch, Abbott touted the Legislature's passage of $3.8 billion in tax relief during the recently concluded legislative session.

A three-judge panel at the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals this week upheld a requirement passed by the Legislature in 2013 that abortion facilities be built to the same standards as ambulatory surgical centers. The judges concluded the state was not imposing an "undue burden" with the requirement, which lawmakers said was aimed at safeguarding women's health and safety. Abortion rights advocates said the requirement would leave just eight clinics in the state. The decision is expected to be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Reverberations continued in McKinney after police actions to break up a gathering at a pool party last week thrust the Dallas suburb into the national conversation on race and police.

GOP presidential candidate Ted Cruz visited the Rio Grande Valley this week, a trip built around a fundraiser being held there for him. While there, he reiterated his promise to repeal "every word" of Obamacare and affirmed that border security shouldn't be a permanent responsibility of the National Guard.

The University of Texas at Austin is reviewing several possible cases of cheating or academic noncompliance by former basketball players following a report by the Chronicle of Higher Education.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Chairman Carlos Rubinstein announced that he is stepping down from the Texas Water Development Board at the end of August. He was appointed by Gov. Rick Perry in August 2013, just months before voters approved $2 billion from the state's Rainy Day Fund to help pay for water projects such as pipelines and treatment plants.

Bech K. Bruun was named Rubinstein's immediate successor as Texas Water Development Board chairman by Gov. Greg Abbott for a term to expire at the pleasure of the governor. Bruun has served as a TWDB member since September 2013.

Abbott appointed John V. “Vic” Lattimore, Jr. of Plano, Nolan Perez of Harlingen and he re-appointed Ann McGinity of Pearland to the Texas Woman’s University Board of Regents for terms to expire on Feb. 1, 2021.

David Porter will take over as chairman of the Railroad Commission of Texas after he was unanimously elected at a meeting of the agency this week. He succeeds Christi Craddick in the post.

Amanda Carpenter is stepping down next month as communications director for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. Prior to her stint with Cruz, Carpenter worked for U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C. Her plans include a return to writing conservative commentary.

Steve Lonegan has been named chairman of GOP presidential candidate Ted Cruz's campaign in New Jersey. Lonegan lost to Cory Booker in the 2013 special election to succeed U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg.

State Sen. Brian Birdwell, R-Granbury, has endorsed U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz for president. His colleague, Konni Burton, R-Colleyville, endorsed Cruz in March.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich has added a big name to his political team — veteran Texas political strategist John Weaver. Kasich is laying down the groundwork for a possible run at the White House in 2016. Weaver is no stranger to presidential politics, having worked with past candidates John McCain and Jon Huntsman.

Bennett Ratliff will run again for the Dallas-area House District 115 seat he lost to Matt Rinaldi in the 2014 GOP primary election. The contest was decided by 92 votes.

Brent Graves, who is running for the House District 59 seat next year, released a list of endorsements from all 13 of the GOP precinct chairs in Erath County.