For our recurring list of the most competitive races in Texas statewide, congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are bolded. This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the March 1 primary approaches. This is built for argument and discussion: Let us know what you think. 

 

Former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia announced he raised nearly $78,000 in the lead up to the Dec. 31 federal end-of-year fundraising deadline.

He will need every penny.

The Democrat is challenging longtime U.S. Rep. Gene Green of Houston for Texas' 29th District. Green sits on nearly $1.2 million, accrued over several years in the event a primary challenge on the par of Garcia surfaced. 

Fourth quarter fundraising books closed on Dec. 31, but federal candidates have until January to file their full campaign finance reports.

The primary matchup is already garnering national attention with many observers tagging this contest as one to watch on the effectiveness of the Latino vote. Politico recently named this as one of nine primaries to watch this year.

*****

Texans for Fiscal Responsibility announced two endorsements on Thursday — Bryan Hughes in the SD-1 Republican primary and Dan Morenoff in the HD-114 Republican primary.

Morenoff is challenging an incumbent, Jason Villalba, who has run afoul of movement conservative groups across the state, including TFR.

The SD-1 endorsement is more interesting because while Hughes has drawn the backing of statewide officials like Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton, Hughes' rival for the seat, David Simpson, has rounded up support from a couple of high-profile tea party voices — state Sen. Konni Burton and state Rep. Jonathan Stickland.

In other words, this is a big get for the Hughes camp.

*****

In an email newsletter to supporters, GOP Supreme Court, Place 5 candidate Rick Green said he’s raised more than $100,000 in the roughly three weeks from the announcement of his run and the end of year fundraising deadline.

That sum came from 340-plus contributors, according to Green.

Green, a former state representative, is challenging the incumbent, Paul Green, in the Republican primary.

The report detailing who gave those contributions and in what sums is due Jan. 15.

*****

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton says that requiring Texas to pay his opponents’ attorneys fees in a long-running battle over the state’s redistricting maps would be unconstitutional.

The argument came in a brief filed Tuesday with the U.S. Supreme Court, which Paxton has asked to take up his challenge to a lower court’s ruling requiring Texas to pay more than $1 million in legal fees in State of Texas v. Wendy Davis, et al.

The case, which dates back to 2011, is complicated, and so is the fee issue.

Here’s a link to the brief.

“The district court had no authority to award attorneys’ fees under a law that was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court nearly a full year prior,” Paxton said in a statement. “As numerous courts have recognized, opinions by the highest court in the land take effect the moment they are handed down from the bench. As such, the fee order by the lower court should be reversed.”

*****

Former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte has signed on as a host of a campaign event for her successor, José Menéndez, who is facing a primary challenge from state Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer. 

Here's a tweet with the announcement from Menéndez.

The primary election is a rematch of the special election runoff from last year when Menéndez first won the seat vacated by Van de Putte when she chose to run for San Antonio mayor.

Van de Putte last year chose not to get involved in the contest between the two men, who were Texas House colleagues at the time. This announcement suggests at the very least that Van de Putte is more willing to play this time around.

For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked about your 2016 presidential predictions.

With so many candidates still in the running for the GOP presidential nomination, we figured the best way to start off this week's survey would be to ask whether Republican voters would make a clear choice at all. In other words, would Republicans choose a nominee before the start of the national convention this summer?

A strong majority (60 percent) of the insiders thought the party would have a presumptive nominee by the summer. Another 36 percent did not think that would happen.

The next question asked who would still be in the mix should a brokered convention happen. The clear choice among the insiders was for Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz to make it to the convention. Both men were favored to still be in the running at convention time by more than 70 percent of the insiders.

Donald Trump was favored by 55 percent of the insiders to make it to the convention with Jeb Bush named by 23 percent and Chris Christie named by 18 percent.

As far as who the insiders think right now will win the nomination, the insiders are most bullish on Rubio, named by 37 percent, and Cruz, named by 30 percent. A quarter of the insiders said Trump would win the nomination.

With the final question, we asked insiders about the likelihood that a Texas congressional incumbent would lose his or her primary race. On that question, the insiders split almost evenly with 42 percent saying an incumbent would lose and 45 percent saying all incumbents are safe.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Will Republicans settle their presidential contest before their summer convention?

• "Don't underestimate the power of the establishment. They can end it when it is convenient for them."

• "Look no further than 2012 when Republicans had the same concern. It's still really, very early."

• "Cruz wins Iowa, then most of the Southern states. It'll be tough for the others to overcome that momentum."

• "The convention will be Trumped — the biggest RINO ever."

• "We may end up with a lunatic, but we'll decide before the convention."

If they don't, which of these candidates do you think would be in the running in a brokered convention?

• "Cruz has been cruising toward a brokered convention since day one."

• "The delegates to the national convention are much more mainstream than the radicals who attend to the Texas GOP convention. Texas is only one of a few states whose grassroots elect their national delegates. Most state delegate positions are handpicked by leadership. This will create an environment that is very difficult for Cruz or Trump to win."

• "Who owns the grassroots?  Hmmmmm, Mr. Cruz does."

• "I vote in the GOP primary, and I have no clue who I would vote for today."

• "The race will be Cruz v. Rubio after New Hampshire."

Either way, who do you think (today, anyhow) will get the nomination?

• "The party needs a win and they can only get it with Rubio on top of the ticket."

• "It's anyone's guess. Going into South Carolina in 2008, McCain was considered to be down and out. He was hanging on with one staff member and carrying his own bags onto SWA while he traveled the country. It's early January, and anything can happen at this point."

• "Jeb is the only one who has figured out that the only way out is through (Trump). And he's got the money to last."

• "Anyone's guess. If Trump loses some primaries, it will be between optimist Rubio and dour Cruz. Rubio may edge due to electability."

• "I think Cruz is in the driver's seat. But he has to meet expectations in Iowa (first or second), then do the same in South Carolina (first or second). If he fails in either state, he's wounded and Rubio gets the nod. But if he can get Iowa, it shows the evangelical trend, and South Carolina shows his southern/conservative base — the combination of those two gives him the delegates to win the nomination."

Will a Texas congressional incumbent lose his or her primary race?

• "Gene Green will become Houston's Frank Madla. He stayed a little too late."

• "Brady."

• "Chances are there might be one coming home. The base is fit to be tied."

• "I would hate to be known as the SOB who beat Sam Johnson. In addition to being a hero, Sam is still a conservative opinion leader, effective Ways & Means Member, and active within his District."

• "If voters are smart, Farenthold will lose. So I'm voting no incumbents lose their primary."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Corbin Casteel, Elna Christopher, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Glenn Deshields, Kate Doner, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Tom Forbes, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Jim Grace, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Matt Mackowiak, Jason McElvaney, Mike McKinney, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Nelson Nease, Sylvia Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, A.J. Rodriguez, Jeff Rotkoff, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Bruce Scott, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Ed Small, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Sara Tays, Jay Thompson, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Angelo Zottarelli.

Friday, Jan. 8

• Texas Public Policy Foundation Policy Orientation 2016 with keynote speaker Gov. Greg Abbott; 500 E. Fourth St., Austin (8 a.m.-1 p.m.)

Tuesday, Jan. 12

• State Sens. Van Taylor, R-Plano, and Bob Hall, R-Edgewood, fundraiser with special guest Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick; 221 W. Sixth St., Austin (12-1 p.m.)
• House District 139 candidate Randy Bates fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6:30 p.m.)
• State Rep. Eric Johnson, D-Dallas, fundraiser; 105 Hudson St., Apt. 6N, New York (6-8 p.m.)
• State Rep. Giovanni Capriglione, R-Southlake, fundraiser; 1251 E. Southlake Blvd., Southlake (7 p.m.)

Wednesday, Jan. 13

• State Rep. Drew Springer, R-Muenster, fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (12-1:30 p.m.)

Thursday, Jan. 14

• House District 49 candidate Gina Hinojosa campaign kickoff; 1607 San Jacinto Blvd., Austin (5:30-7:30 p.m.)
• An evening with author and historian Donaly E. Brice benefiting the Friends of Libraries & Archives of Texas; 1201 Brazos St., Austin (7 p.m.)

 

Ted Cruz's presidential campaign launched its first major TV ad in New Hampshire, a dramatic spot that seeks to shore up his border security credentials in a Republican primary race that has been dominated by the issue for months.

Taking advantage of a U.S. House recess this month, House Speaker Paul Ryan will make several stops in some of the richest pockets of the state: Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Midland and San Antonio. Donors are being asked to contribute to a joint fundraising committee supporting Ryan's Republican colleagues in vulnerable districts across the country.

Intervening in what could be a landmark decision, the Obama administration, state and federal lawmakers and medical experts are among those who filed amicus briefs urging the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Texas’ 2013 abortion law. Wendy Davis signed onto a separate amicus brief with other current and former women legislators who have publicly disclosed their own abortions.

Texas A&M Athletic Director Eric Hyman will leave his post, university officials announced Tuesday, wrapping up a stint during which A&M grew its college sports profile but at times failed to meet expectations on the field.

GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump told The Washington Post this week that Ted Cruz's Canadian birth could pose "a big problem" should his eligibility to serve as president become subject to a court challenge. Cruz responded first with a humorous tweet referencing the "jumping the shark" episode of "Happy Days" and then later by saying the legal rationale underpinning his eligibility to serve is "quite straightforward."

U.S. Rep. Gene Green, who is facing a potentially tough primary challenge from former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia, earned this week an endorsement from the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Green's district is 80 percent Hispanic and the endorsement was made to convey the message that the incumbent can be trusted to represent Hispanic interests.

A Waller County grand jury took action Wednesday against the Department of Public Safety trooper involved in the July arrest of Sandra Bland, charging him with a single count of perjury. The charge stemmed from the apparent discrepancy between dashboard camera footage of the arrest and the trooper's written description of the incident. Bland died three days later in the Waller County Jail, pushing the incident into the ongoing national conversation about race and policing, jail safety and mental health awareness.

GOP presidential candidate Marco Rubio spoke at a North Dallas rally on Wednesday evening, his first public campaign event in Texas. The wide-ranging speech touched on a multitude of topics but Rubio avoided mentioning his rivals for the party nomination.

Gov. Greg Abbott's economic development and tourism division director defended the use of taxpayer-funded incentives to lure out-of-state businesses to Texas in an appearance Thursday before a House committee. Lawmakers seemed to agree, with some calling Texas’ recent fall from its longtime perch as the nation’s job creator a wakeup call.

America’s biggest retiree group wants state regulators to reject oilman Ray L. Hunt's proposal to buy Oncor, the state’s biggest electric transmission company, suggesting it will shift wealth from everyday Texans to rich folks in suits.

In an appearance at an event hosted by the free market-oriented Texas Public Policy Foundation, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on Thursday vowed to pass a bigger and better tax credit scholarship program — and possibly other school choice legislation — out of the Senate.

A district attorney in West Texas this week asked Attorney General Ken Paxton to weigh in on whether sheriff's deputies in Brewster County are allowed to place stickers in the shape of crosses on the back of their patrol vehicles.

Disclosure: Texas A&M University and the Texas Public Policy Foundation are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. Oncor was a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune in 2012. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Michael Truncale of Beaumont was named by Gov. Greg Abbott to the Prepaid Higher Education Tuition Board for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2021. A senior partner at Orgain, Bell & Tucker LLP, Truncale ran for the open seat in CD-14 back in 2012. He finished third in the Republican primary.

Mike Morath was officially sworn in as the state’s new education commissioner on Monday, according to a statement from the Texas Education Agency. A former Dallas Independent School District trustee, Morath’s appointment was announced by Abbott on Dec. 14.

The Donald Trump campaign announced this week four staff hires for its efforts in Texas — Joshua Jones, deputy director overseeing grassroots operations; Eric Mahroum, field director for Dallas/Fort Worth and North Texas; Kayla Hensley, field director for Houston and East Texas; and Paul Janiczek, field director for central, south and west Texas.

The Montgomery County Tea Party announced Wednesday that it is endorsing Weston Martinez in the GOP primary for the open seat on the Railroad Commission.

Former Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson announced on Thursday his endorsement of Dawn Buckingham in the GOP SD-24 primary race.

The political arm of the tort reform group Texans for Lawsuit Reform announced on Wednesday that it is backing state Rep. Kyle Kacal’s re-election bid in HD-12. Kacal, R-College Station, is facing two challengers in the March 1 party primary race.

In the HD-14 GOP primary race, Texas Values Action, the advocacy arm of Texas Values, announced Wednesday that it is backing the challenger in the contest, Jess Fields. Fields, a former College Station city council member and former staffer at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, is challenging the incumbent John Raney.

The advocacy arm of the Texas Farm Bureau is endorsing Ernest Bailes in the race for the HD-18 seat being vacated by Appropriations Chairman John Otto, R-Dayton.

The Texas Association of Realtors announced that it is backing Justin Holland, himself a Realtor, for the HD-33 open seat. The seat is up for grabs following the decision by Scott Turner, R-Frisco, not to seek re-election.

Education Austin announced Monday that it is backing Gina Hinojosa in the Democratic primary to fill the open seat in House District 49. Hinojosa stepped off the Austin ISD school board where she was serving as president in order to run for the seat being vacated by Elliott Naishtat.

HD-115 incumbent Matt Rinaldi, R-Irving, said Monday that he has rounded up endorsements from 26 state legislators, including five state senators. The group includes House GOP Caucus Chairman Tan Parker, R-Flower Mound.

Outgoing state Rep. Allen Fletcher, R-Cypress, said Wednesday that he is backing Tom Oliverson in the contest to succeed him in HD-130.

The political arm of the Texas Hospital Association on Tuesday announced that it is endorsing HD-134 incumbent state Rep. Sarah Davis for the Republican primary.

Chris Newton officially began duties this week as executive vice president at the Texas Apartment Association. He most recently was president of the Texas Food and Fuel Association. He resigned from that post at year’s end.

Deaths: El Franco Lee, 66, died Sunday of an apparent heart attack. A Harris County Commissioner for 30 years, Lee also represented Houston in the Texas House for three terms from 1979-85.

Disclosure: The Texas Farm Bureau, the Texas Association of Realtors and the Texas Hospital Association are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. Jerry Patterson and Elliott Naishtat are donors to The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.