For our list of the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are bolded. This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the March 1 primary approaches. Let us know what you think.

Changes this week: We lowered CD-29 to yellow, and raised TSC-5 to red, and HD-2, HD-17 and HD-150 to orange.

Enlarge Ross Ramsey

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Enlarge Marjorie Kamys Cotera

The governor and lieutenant governor previewed on Thursday some eye-popping fundraising numbers for the final half of the year.

Just after the lunch hour, the Greg Abbott campaign said that it would report raising more than $7 million over the final six months of the year, bolstering his campaign war chest to more than $22 million.

Later that afternoon, the Dan Patrick campaign chimed in, saying that he would report raising more than $3.5 million over the last six months of the year. The Patrick campaign also said that his cash on hand total of $7.5 million is the most ever recorded by a lieutenant governor.

Campaign finance reports are due today for legislative, judicial and statewide candidates and officeholders.

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Throw the names of a couple of state legislators into the mix on who will succeed Democratic Harris County Commissioner El Franco Lee, who passed away earlier this month.

Because Lee died after the deadline to file for a spot on the primary ballot, his name will remain on the ballot for the March 1 primary election. That'll set up a scenario where party representatives will choose the person to replace Lee on the ballot for the November general election.

State Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston, tells Texas Weekly that state Sen. Rodney Ellis, D-Houston, is a possible contender for the commissioner's seat. If Ellis were to run for county commissioner, Coleman said he'd be interested in taking over for Ellis in the Senate.

If that happens, party representatives would name new nominees for both Ellis' seat and Coleman's seat.

The first step to be taken, though, is the appointment of a caretaker commissioner by Harris County Judge Ed Emmett. That appointee would fill Lee's spot on the commissioners court for the remainder of Lee's unexpired term.

One thing we can say for certain right now is that neither state lawmaker would be interested in taking over as caretaker commissioner as he would have to resign his spot in the Legislature immediately.

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The political arm of the Texas Association of Business released a lengthy list of endorsements for the upcoming party primaries. Newsworthy here are the five instances where they endorse against the incumbent.

In the Supreme Court, Place 3 contest, they endorsed Michael Massengale over Debra Lehrmann, following the lead of Texans for Lawsuit Reform and the Texas Medical Association in backing the challenger.

They also endorsed against tea party candidates in:

HD-55 — Hugh Shine over Molly White

HD-92 — Scott Fisher over Jonathan Stickland

HD-94 — Andrew Piel over Tony Tinderholt

HD-115 — Bennett Ratliff over Matt Rinaldi

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Texas regulators have wrapped up hearings on Dallas billionaire Ray L. Hunt’s mammoth proposal to buy and reshape Oncor, the state’s largest electric utility.

The Texas Public Utility Commission on Thursday closed its overstuffed binders  — for now — after hearing four days of testimony and cross examination this week on the roughly $18 billion deal that has drawn intense scrutiny.

“It’s a really intriguing case and argued well by all sides,” said Chairman Donna Nelson. “I know this is a painful process, but it’s also been enlightening.”

For a full refresher on the deal's complicated sticking points, see this Texas Tribune report from Monday.

But in short, the Hunt family wants to save on taxes by reshaping Oncor into a real estate investment trust, an unprecedented move for a large utility. The deal is the lynchpin of efforts to deliver Energy Future Holdings from its $42 billion bankruptcy.

Critics — including consumer groups, commission staff experts and even Oncor — identify a number of concerns that the Hunts have sought to quell.  One point of contention: Whether the regulators should require the new Oncor to directly pass its major tax savings to ratepayers. Consumer advocate say doing so is only fair.

Hunt’s camp argues that such a requirement would torpedo the deal and potentially set up “global warfare” among Energy Future’s creditors — sending the case back into bankruptcy court.

The commissioners have not clearly indicated where they stand on that issue, or the several others tangled up in the case. But on Thursday, two of the three — Nelson and Brandy Marty Marquez — agreed that allowing Hunt’s investors to keep the tax savings would not violate commission precedent.

“I think it’s a policy call,” Nelson said.

Expect the commissioners to continue discussing the deal at their next open meetings. A decision is due by the end of March.

Disclosure: The Texas Association of Business is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. Oncor and Energy Future Holdings were corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune in 2012. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Enlarge Abby Livingston

U.S. Sen. and presidential contender Ted Cruz campaigns in Greenville, South Carolina on Dec. 7, 2015.

Ted Cruz's presidential campaign on Wednesday rolled out a trio of endorsements that could give him a boost in the first few early voting states and nationally.

The first backer was Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, a rising-star Republican in the No. 4 early voting state. The Republican strategist leading the Cruz campaign in the Silver State, Robert Uithoven, was behind Laxalt's come-from-behind victory in 2014.

Then the Cruz campaign announced the support of Charlie Condon, the former attorney general of South Carolina. He has extensive experience with presidential campaigns in the first-in-the-South primary state, helping lead efforts there for John McCain in 2008, George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996.

And the third figure to get behind Cruz was Phil Robertson of "Duck Dynasty" fame. Cruz's campaign released the reality TV star's endorsement in the form of a video showing the two on a recent duck hunt.

“My qualifications for president of the United States are rather narrow: Is he or she Godly, does he or she love us, can he or she do the job, and finally would they kill a duck and put him in a pot and make him a good duck gumbo?” Robertson says in the minute-long video. “I've looked at the candidates. Ted Cruz is my man. He fits the bill."

*****

Two super PACs supporting Cruz are launching a national radio ad buy valued at more than $1 million.

The pair of groups, Keep the Promise PAC and Keep the Promise I, announced Wednesday the buy features several ads set to run Monday through March 1 across the country and in the first four early voting states. The buy, which also includes digital spots, totals $1.29 million.

One of the ads features a pro-Cruz testimonial from the aforementioned Robertson.

*****

Gov. Greg Abbott is heading to Israel and Switzerland on a business development trip next week. The trip, paid for by TexasOne, the state's economic development corporation, includes a stop at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Former Gov. Rick Perry spoke at the same confab in 2014.

Between Jan. 18 and Jan. 22, Abbott will tour businesses and hold meetings with public officials and business executives in both countries, according to the governor's office. This is Abbott's third international business trip, after a visit to Cuba in December and one to Mexico in September.

"The combination of Texas’ low-tax, low-regulation environment and our skilled workforce is attracting more foreign direct investment to make the Lone Star State a hub for global commerce,” Abbott said in a prepared statement.

*****

For your calendars… the Hill Country Alliance has announced a Jan. 27 candidate forum for the six Republican candidates and lone Democrat vying for the open SD-24 seat.

The two-hour forum is scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. with a welcome set for 6 p.m. The event will take place at the Hill Country University Center in Fredericksburg.

The half-dozen GOP candidates set to appear at the forum are: Dawn Buckingham, Jon Cobb, Ryan Downton, Susan King, Brent Mayes and Reed Williams. The Democrat in the race is Jennie Lou Leeder.

They are running to succeed Horseshoe Bay Republican Troy Fraser who has decided against a run for re-election.

*****

Democrat Steve Brown, who’s running for state representative in House District 27, is calling for a series of debates with his primary opponents. State Rep. Ron Reynolds is the incumbent in the race.

Brown is proposing a minimum of four debates on issues related to public education, the economy, health care and transportation.

Along with Brown and Reynolds, there are two other candidates running for the nomination.

*****

The Hillary Clinton presidential campaign sent former U.S. trade representative Ron Kirk early this week to the key early voting state of South Carolina as a campaign surrogate.

 The trip planned for Monday and Tuesday included appearances before a Democratic Club luncheon in Hilton Head and a roundtable in Charleston with the Southeastern Chamber of Commerce.

Kirk served as Dallas mayor and was the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002.

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For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked about your 2016 legislative and statewide office predictions.

With our first question, we focused on eight key House primaries: four in which Joe Straus and his allies face challenges from tea party candidates and four in which tea party incumbents face challenges from establishment-backed candidates.

On this question, the insiders clearly favored the chances of the establishment Republicans. Clear majorities picked John Frullo (65 percent), Byron Cook (74 percent), Charlie Geren (87 percent) and Straus (97 percent) to win their primaries. 

The insiders by contrast were bearish on the chances of the tea party incumbents winning their primaries. They were most pessimistic about Jonathan Stickland and Molly White, with just 19 percent predicting a primary win for each. Another 26 percent picked Tony Tinderholt to win and 34 percent picked Matt Rinaldi to win.

We shifted with the next questions to quiz the insiders on who they thought would make the runoff in several key multi-candidate GOP primaries.

In the case of the seven-candidate contest for the open Railroad Commission seat, the insiders favored Wayne Christian (75 percent), John Greytok (48 percent) and Gary Gates (47 percent) as the ones most likely to advance to the next round. No other candidate was picked by more than 10 percent of the insiders.

In the race to fill the open Senate District 1 seat vacated by Tyler Republican Kevin Eltife, the insiders clearly favored Bryan Hughes (90 percent) and David Simpson (63 percent) to make the runoff. James "Red" Brown was mentioned by 21 percent. Interestingly, 14 percent thought the race would be won without a runoff.

Finally, in the race to fill the open Senate District 24 seat vacated by Horseshoe Bay Republican Troy Fraser, the insiders clearly preferred Dawn Buckingham (69 percent) and Susan King (64 percent) to make the runoff. Brent Mayes was named by 27 percent and Jon Cobb was named by 13 percent.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Which of these GOP House incumbents will survive?

• "You're pandering to the right by including Speaker Straus on the list. 100 Empower Texas candidates can run against him and he will still beat them without a runoff."

• "Watch out for Crazy Town, USA... aka DFW. That area bodes extremely well this cycle for the Tea Party types and very, very poorly for those who are not."

• "Molly White, Tony Tinderholt and Rinaldi have no real opposition outside Austin — the Lobby doesn't like 'em. Cook and Geren will survive because their opponents are weak — so the establishment and the right wingers will split — Stickland and Frullo won't be back."

• "Most incumbents survive because the 84th Texas Legislature was the most conservative in history, according to Dan Patrick and Greg Abbott. Messaging will be the key."

• "Sadly, a few who should be changing pins at a bowling alley will remain."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Which two candidates make the runoff in the open Railroad Commission GOP primary?

• "There is only one candidate in this race because they genuinely want the job and will take it seriously and that's John Greytok. Most of the others are perennial candidates or wannabes in search for an office."

• "Gates spends the most (mailers and radio already!?) to get in, and the Christians confuse people, and Martinez learns The Carrillo Lesson of Hispanic names on down ballot races."

• "Wayne Christian makes it because he already has name recognition statewide from his recent run for RRC. He probably won't win it without a runoff because of confusion that will occur with the other candidate with the surname Christian."

• "Gates gets in low 40s and buys his vote with tons of mail."

• "Have absolutely no idea. There isn't a significant candidate with any name ID."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Which two candidates make the runoff for the open Senate District 1 GOP primary?

• "Hughes and Simpson are fighting for the same voters and Hughes will beat him and lead into the runoff. Brown slips in with the support of sane voters."

• "There is something about parts of that district that loves an interestingly unusual candidate."

• "Is Simpson running a campaign? It's like he's disappeared."

• "Hughes wins without runoff."

• "Red Brown will have Tyler support... but Tyler won't be able to match the voters Bryan will have come out for him in the runoff."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Which two candidates make the runoff for the open Senate District 24 GOP primary?

• "Ryan Downton makes it with Tim Dunn's support, Susan King gets in despite her effectively late entry with solid support in Taylor County and enough in Bell. Dawn Buckingham is third because she has no geographic base in the district and has been Dunn's main target."

• "Dawn will win the whole thing. I'll hesitantly give Susan the nod for the runoff over Mayes due to size of Abilene. But watch out for Mayes. He could edge Susan out altogether."

• "Toughest race to predict. Cobb and Dawn both have baggage."

• "Mayes comes in first, Buckingham buys second place and Cobb comes in third — then Mayes wins it."

• "Dawn Buckingham is working hard and should make the runoff. The other person in the runoff should be Brent Mayes. It could also be Jon Cobb. Both of these guys are working together, are supported by the crazy wing of the R party."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, Jay Arnold, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Corbin Casteel, Elna Christopher, Randy Cubriel, Beth Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Ted Delisi, Tom Duffy, Jack Erskine, Jon Fisher, Terry Frakes, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Dale Laine, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Myra Leo, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Steve Minick, Mike Moses, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, A.J. Rodriguez, Grant Ruckel, Tyler Ruud, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ben Sebree, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Sara Tays, Jay Thompson, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Friday, Jan. 15

• Semiannual campaign finance reports covering activity from July 1, 2015, through Dec. 31, 2015, are due by midnight.

Saturday, Jan. 16

• HD-139 candidate Randy Bates campaign headquarters opening; 6830 Antoine Drive, Houston (12-2 p.m.)
• HD-7 candidate David Watts fundraiser with special guests Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller and U.S. Rep. John Ratcliffe, R-Heath; 80 Lantana Road, Gilmer (6:30-9:30 p.m.)
• State Rep. Jonathan Stickland, R-Bedford, Defend Texas Liberty Fundraiser; 1601 Campus Drive, Hurst (6:45-9 p.m.)

Monday, Jan. 18

• Martin Luther King, Jr. Day federal holiday observed

Tuesday, Jan. 19

• SD-24 candidate Susan King fundraiser with special guest state Rep. Jim Keffer, R-Eastland; 1166 Elmwood Drive, Abilene (5-7 p.m.)

Wednesday, Jan. 20

• Railroad Commission candidate John Greytok fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4-6 p.m.)
• SD-24 candidate forum hosted by the Central Texas Water Coalition (CTWC); 105 Cross Creek, Lakeway (6:30-8:30 p.m.)

Thursday, Jan. 21

• Railroad Commission GOP candidate forum at McLennan County Republican Club meeting; 100 Texas Ranger Trail, Waco (12 p.m.)

The seven top contenders for the GOP presidential nomination met Thursday night for their sixth debate of the election cycle near Charleston, S.C. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz clashed often with his rival at the top of the polls, Donald Trump, in the most confrontational debate yet that included an extended exchange on Cruz's Canadian birth.

Cruz on Wednesday found himself in the position of having to explain a loan from Goldman Sachs during his 2012 Senate campaign. The New York Times reported that Cruz had not disclosed to the Federal Election Commission the loan that was worth as much as $500,000 and went toward the race. Speaking with reporters in South Carolina, Cruz called the issue a “technical and inadvertent filing error” that he would resolve if necessary.

It was revealed this week that former Gov. Rick Perry has a new gig working for MCNA Dental, the largest privately held dental insurance company in the country, that was also the top donor to his 2016 presidential campaign. Confirmation of Perry's new job came as news broke the longest-serving governor in Texas history was meeting in Florida with Gov. Rick Scott.

The head of Donald Trump's presidential campaign, Corbin Casteel, this week left his post with less than two months until the Texas primary on March 1. Casteel declined to comment about the reasoning behind his departure. 

President Barack Obama's words in his final State of the Union address on Tuesday largely fell on deaf ears among Texas Republicans. Their reactions illustrated the deep partisan divide that remains as Obama's final term nears its end.

The number of private colleges in Texas that have chosen to opt out of the state's new campus carry law is now at 20 following the decision this week by Trinity University in San Antonio to refuse guns on campus. So far, no private universities have chosen opt in to the law.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Thursday announced a new unit in his office dedicated to combating human trafficking. The unit was created by language included in a border security bill passed last year by the Legislature. The head of the unit is a prosecutor who has been working on human trafficking cases since 2009, first with the Bexar County district attorney's office and, for the past year, with the attorney general's office.

Three days after Gov. Greg Abbott called for a convention of states to dramatically amend the U.S. Constitution, few high-ranking Republicans in Texas have backed his proposal. Several GOP state leaders, including Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and House Speaker Joe Straus, had yet to weigh in on the proposal.

U.S. Rep. Sam Johnson, R-Richardson, is throwing his support behind Ted Cruz for president, giving the senator the seventh congressional endorsement from his home state. In a statement, Johnson said that the country needs a "real conservative in the White House" that can help get the country back on track. Roughly a quarter of Congressional Republicans from Texas have backed Cruz.

Top officials at Oncor, Texas' largest electric utility, aired concerns on Monday with Dallas billionaire Ray L. Hunt's $18 billion proposal to take over and reshape their company. Oncor CEO Bob Shapard suggested that Hunt's plan to transform the company into a "real estate investment trust" could leave the utility without the flexibility to handle unplanned events. 

An investigation commissioned by the University of Texas at Austin has found "no evidence" of academic cheating by its basketball players. The NCAA has also decided not to pursue any punishment. The review was prompted by a June article in the Chronicle of Higher Education that alleged academic cheating by men's basketball players under former UT coach Rick Barnes.

With Mexico seemingly more willing to consider extraditing Sinaloa drug cartel head Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán after his recent recapture, questions are surging on whether he would face charges in Texas and the impact of his recapture on the region's drug trade.

A Tribune analysis of Cruz's travel schedule during his campaigning for president confirm that he has spent a perhaps historically unprecedented amount of time in southern states in a bid to make the round of primaries on March 1 bend the course of the nominating contest to his favor.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. Oncor was a corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune in 2012. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

The Texas Commission on Next Generation Assessments has a new presiding officer with Gov. Greg Abbott’s appointment of Andrew Kim, superintendent of Comal ISD. Stacy Hock was also named to the commission. The panel is developing recommendations on new systems of student assessment and public school accountability, which are due Sept. 1.

Texas Tech University has named John Opperman as its interim president while it searches for a permanent replacement for Duane Nellis, who announced his resignation last week.

Republican Texas Railroad Commission hopeful Weston Martinez announced several Tea Party endorsements, including Cathie Adams, president of the Texas Eagle Forum; Jonathan Saenz, president of Texas Values; Joann Fleming, head of the Grassroots America – We the People PAC; and Ray Myers, a local Tea Party activist.

Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller is backing Republican Rick Green in the race for the Texas Supreme Court Place 5. Green, a former two-term state representative, also announced an endorsement from Walker, Texas Ranger himself — Chuck Norris.

SD-1 GOP candidate Bryan Hughes won on Monday the endorsement of the Texas Association of Realtors’ political action committee.

Joe McBride, owner of McBride’s Guns, endorsed Republican candidate Dawn Buckingham in the race to replace state Sen. Troy Fraser in SD-24.

The political arm of the Texas Farm Bureau announced on Friday its endorsement of Jay Dean in the open GOP primary to represent the East Texas-based HD-7.

The Independent Texans PAC endorsed Republican incumbent state Rep. John Cyrier of HD-17, highlighting Cyrier’s passing of legislation that protects groundwater district board members from lawsuits while performing their duties.

Lorne Liechty won the backing of the political arm of Texans for Life, the pro-life group led by Kyleen Wright, in his bid to win the open GOP primary in HD-33.  On Monday, Liechty won an endorsement from former state Sen. Bob Deuell.

State Sen. Charles Perry, R-Lubbock, has endorsed Mike Lang in the GOP primary race for the open HD-60 seat.

HD-73 incumbent Doug Miller, R-New Braunfels, announced Friday that he has earned the endorsement of the political arm of the Texas State Rifle Association.

The Texans for Life PAC endorsed former state Rep. Bennett Ratliff to win back the HD-115 seat he lost to Matt Rinaldi by 92 votes two years ago, as well as the re-election bid of Jason Villalba in HD-114.

House Speaker Joe Straus has been awarded the Guardian of Small Business award by the National Federation of Independent Business/Texas, the state’s leading advocacy group for small business owners.

Republican candidates for HD-126, Kevin Roberts, and HD-130, Tom Oliverson, received endorsements this week from the Houston Police Officers’ Union.

Valoree Swanson, a Republican challenging eight-term incumbent Debbie Riddle in the Harris County-based HD-150, picked up endorsements this past week from Texans for Fiscal Responsibility, Texas Right to Life and SREC District 7 committeeman Mark Ramsey.

The University of Texas at Austin announced Monday that Maurie McInnis has been appointed to the post of provost. She comes to UT-Austin from the University of Virginia, where she was vice provost for academic affairs.

Deaths: Royal Masset, former political director for the Republican Party of Texas. During his 15 years at the party, he is one of those most credited for helping direct the party's explosive growth in the 1980s and 1990s. He is also credited with helping develop the Optimal Republican Voter Strength index, which gauges the partisan leaning of legislative districts and is a valuable tool in assessing a candidate's chances to win in a district.

Disclosure: The Texas Association of Realtors, the Texas Farm Bureau, the University of Texas at Austin and Texas Tech University are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.