Kelly White, the campaign treasurer for Austin Democrat Donna Howard, might abandon her candidate to run for the House herself. She says she's "not ready to talk about that in the media," but other candidates in the race, and various party officials, say the prospect of a special election in HD-48 might transform White from aide to candidate. White, an Austin Democrat who missed being a state lawmaker a year ago by less than 150 votes, signed up this year as the treasurer for another candidate, Donna Howard. White lost to Rep. Todd Baxter, R-Austin, and Howard is one of three Democrats campaigning for the chance to challenge him. But Baxter surprised the Democrats last week by saying he won't run for reelection, and in fact will quit the House on November 1.
Republican Ben Bentzin was in the race within a day and so far has been able to keep other Republicans from joining in the contest. Baxter's resignation will force a special election -- the timing of which is up to Gov. Rick Perry.
That sets up some interesting campaign puzzles. If the governor calls a quick election, Bentzin has a chance to split the votes with the three Democrats now in the contest: Howard, Andy Brown, and Kathy Rider. One theory among the apparatchiks is that Bentzin would get the 50 percent of the vote that Baxter got, and that the Democrats would split the other 50 percent. If Bentzin gets more than half, he'd win straight up.
An election with that many folks in it could also result in a runoff. Democrats fear that could be timed to coincide with the March primary elections. Their worry is that the Republicans, with a gubernatorial primary between Perry and Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, the GOP will have the better draw in March. If more elephants than donkeys go to the polls, Bentzin might benefit from the increased traffic, swamping whatever Democrat makes it into the runoff. That's pretty interesting, and it prompted much of the scheming about White and Howard and Brown and Rider, but it's wrong. Officials with the Texas Secretary of State say you can't hold a special election -- or a runoff -- on a primary election date.
And if you believe that, you might also believe that the Democrat with the best combination of name identification, grassroots support and money would have the best chance. And since she ran before, you might pick White to bear the standard, even though she's endorsed Howard and told friends and supporters in emails that Howard would make a better representative than she would.
The Democrats caucused over the weekend with local party officials to talk about the situation. They didn't come to any resolution.
And White, in spite of having her name in play, went ahead with a previously planned fundraiser for Howard at White's house. And Gov. Perry hasn't announced his decision on whether to call a quick special election (by designating it as an emergency) or to wait until the next uniform election date, in May. In either case, there will also be primary elections for that seat, followed by a general election in November 2006. The special election winner will serve until the end of next year, and then give up the spot to the winner of the general election.
And White, in spite of having her name in play, went ahead with a previously planned fundraiser for Howard at White's house. And Gov. Perry hasn't announced his decision on whether to call a quick special election (by designating it as an emergency) or to wait until the next uniform election date, in May. In either case, there will also be primary elections for that seat, followed by a general election in November 2006. The special election winner will serve until the end of next year, and then give up the spot to the winner of the general election.