Saying that you're a Republican, and that you're a candidate for governor, or even that you're a Republican candidate for governor, is not the same as saying you'll seek the GOP's nomination for that office in 2006. And that's why the state's scribbling scrum of political reporters won't close the door on speculation that Carole Keeton Strayhorn will run as an independent next year.Strayhorn, the state's comptroller, has been a leading Republican vote-getter in past general elections. But her results in contested statewide primaries are mixed, and facing incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in a GOP primary dominated by the social conservatives who put him in office is daunting. Things change rapidly in politics, but every poll we've seen shows Perry smothering the comptroller if the primary were held now.
Even if she hasn't raised a dime in the current six-month period -- an unlikely prospect -- Strayhorn will enter 2006 with at least $5 million in her campaign chest. The primary elections are on March 7, or nine weeks after the first of the year. Anyone who can spend at the rate of roughly $500,000 per week has to be considered a threat, no matter what the polls say now. If she has more money than that, she'll be a heckuva pest whether she's running in a primary or not.
But Strayhorn's political strength has always been in the general election, where swing voters and crossover Democrats dilute the hard-core Republican voters who control the outcomes in GOP primaries in March.
Strayhorn has until January 2 to make her intentions known. That's the deadline for filing, either as a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent.
• She'd have to put a petition-signing network together. The whole reason for parties is to maintain such networks, but independents like Kinky Friedman have to build their own organizations. Friedman's campaign is deeply into that process and has organized 50 or 60 of the larger counties in Texas. The One Tough Grandma Party would have to start from scratch, relying in part on disenchanted Republicans who might form the nucleus of a statewide organization for her independent candidacy. One hurdle is Friedman, who has already been harvesting anti-Perry and anti-Party voters. He's the bigger celebrity, is more organized (at this point), and is in a position to tag her as a "me, too" independent.
• The Legislature is coming back in April or May to try to hammer the state's school finance system into constitutional form. Strayhorn, as comptroller, will deliver the official numbers on their tax and revenue proposals. That provides her an opportunity for political mischief, and how it's received will depend on whether she's politically dead or alive. If, by spring, she's a GOP primary loser and a former candidate for governor, she'll be easier to ignore. If, on the other hand, she's a gubernatorial candidate in the middle of a petition drive to get on the ballot in November, she'll get more attention.
• Low talk among some Austin Republicans over the last several months has focused on whether Strayhorn would switch parties and run as a Democrat. She was a Democrat in the first place, but jumped to the GOP in the 1980s to mount an ill-fated challenge to then-U.S. Rep. J.J. "Jake" Pickle, D-Austin. You can still find Democrats in Central Texas who are still angry about that. One of her sons is the spokesman for the nation's top Republican, George W. Bush. And she's not pro-choice like most Democrats are. A switch from the elephants to donkeys would be a tough row to hoe. Besides, she's consistently said she's a Republican and intends to remain one. Isn't it possible that she's telling the truth?
• An independent Strayhorn could be really bad news for Democrats like Felix Alvarado, Chris Bell, and Bob Gammage. Some of the financiers who are typically with Democrats are with Strayhorn this time. If she's out of the race in March, some of those contributors might be interested in the Democratic nominee. If she's still in the race, they'll still be with her, and the Democrats will still be looking for funding from a shrunken donor base.