Austin Republican Ben Bentzin started his latest attempt to win a seat in the statehouse with every advantage: Help from high state officials; a district drawn for a Republican; a special election called by a Republican governor for a date that was presumably to the advantage of his own party; a successful effort at keeping other Republicans out of the race; two Democrats splitting votes on their side and supposedly bettering his chances in a special election; and a huge financial advantage over everyone else in the field.The stakes were high for both political parties. Republicans barely won the seat in 2004, and then saw several big issues come down to one- and two-vote margins in the House last year. Rep. Todd Baxter, who resigned the post to become a cable TV lobbyist, was widely regarded by both parties as vulnerable. Baxter, a strong campaigner, won by fewer than 150 votes two years ago and was one of several lawmakers supported by now-controversial groups tied to U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay. Bentzin was supposed to secure it for the GOP.
But the nail was harder than the hammer. Bentzin lost -- badly -- to Democrat Donna Howard, mustering just 42.4 percent of the vote to her 57.6 percent.
The question now, for both parties: Is this portable? Could what happened in HD-48 happen in other districts in this election cycle? Was it a change in the district, or a bad candidate, or a bungled campaign, or an early sign of a tough year to be a Republican on the ballot? Maybe it's a statehouse problem?
It's a mix. Bentzin ran a weak campaign and let the Democrats introduce him to voters, tarring him with Tom DeLay and DeLay's associates and DeLay's current unpopularity, particularly in Austin. The district has been trending toward the Democrats since redistricting. Howard made an issue of public education, which appeared to resonate strongly in a legislative district where school finance and education are hot issues.
Start the autopsy with the last regular election in the district, in 2004: Baxter beat Kelly White by 147 votes, but was the lowest-performing Republican on the district's ballot that year. George W. Bush won with 53 percent, and the average statewide Republican candidate got 54.3 percent in the district. Countywide candidates -- running below Baxter on the ballot -- got 53 percent to 57 percent of the vote.
That's what Republican turf looks like, so Bentzin and almost every other Republican we know was surprised when, in the first round of the special election, he got 37.8 percent to Howard's 49.4 percent. Up to that point, much of the talk in GOP circles was over whether he'd win outright or need a runoff. Kathy Rider, a Democrat, finished third, with 10.4 percent. Both sides ginned up their turnout machines for the Valentine's Day runoff, and 8,343 more people voted in that round. But most of them voted for Howard.
For the runoff, Bentzin attacked Howard and dropped the odd ad campaign that dominated his first round sales pitch. He was trying to get people to vote in the second half who skipped the first, on the theory that Republicans didn't show up and that a higher turnout in that district would be more conservative. Because of Rider's performance, if Republicans couldn't change the pool of voters, they were afraid Howard would get the votes she needed and an extra 10 percent on top.
But two things stuck. Bentzin positioned himself close to Perry and the leadership in Austin in a district that's not particularly happy about state government at the moment. And the Republican let the Democrats define him for voters. That happened in the first round and he never shook it off.
Bentzin's second-round attacks -- an attempt to tie Howard to an old controversy most voters didn't remember or particularly care about -- didn't leave a mark. The Democratic attack on Bentzin was more contemporary, attaching him by association to the troubles of U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, and to his Texans for a Republican Majority, which has been in the news in Austin for almost four years. That's the group that led Republican efforts to take over the Texas House, a successful effort that also brought many of TRMPAC's officers and consultants to the attention of Travis County prosecutors and grand juries.
Austin's the center of that investigation, and Republicans will happily tell you it's an unusually liberal environment (for Texas) and that anybody with an elephant on their bumper sticker starts with a handicap. That could be right. But it's also true that Austin was one of the locales hit hardest in the tough fight over congressional redistricting, and getting carved up in that process left some resentments against DeLay and anyone associated with him, even among Republicans. Add in a tincture of Abramoff, a dash of TRMPAC, and season heavily with frustration over the school finance mess, and you've concocted the environment for an upset. Howard is a strong candidate and ran better campaign -- in both the special election and the runoff.
So, does it travel? That's mainly a November question, but there's another laboratory test underway in Grand Prairie, where the resignation of Rep. Ray Allen, a Republican, triggered a special election set for February 28. Kirk England, the Republican in the race, has Allen's endorsement and is the son of a popular mayor. Katy Hubener, the Democrat, lost to Allen two years ago and was ready for a rematch when he quit to become a lobbyist. And there's a Libertarian in the race, Gene Freeman, who could be a spoiler if this gets close.
The numbers in HD-106 are a little better for the Republicans, and the voters are different, with lower average incomes and fewer college degrees than in HD-48. In 2004, Bush got 59.4 percent against Kerry; the average Republican statewide got 57 percent, and a Republican candidate for Dallas County sheriff got 55 percent of the vote while he was losing the election. Allen got 52.6 percent against Hubener. School finance is a big deal, though, and we're not aware of any times between England and DeLay. But the results might say something about the political environment in Texas.