Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams says early voting looked like the 2002 primaries, and he's predicting 13 percent of the state's voters will show up for either the elephants or the donkeys this year.In 2002, 5 percent of the state's voters showed up for the GOP primary, and 8.4 percent voted for the Democrats. In raw numbers, that was 1,647,237 people. Williams' guesstimates are based on early turnout in the state's 15 biggest counties. Their unofficial chart:

Some of the last shots from the 2006 primary election campaigns.U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, closes with an email to supporters telling them to turn out because Democrats have been seen voting in Republican primaries. And phone bank robo-calls are going out with messages from DeLay himself, from Fort Bend County Judge Bob Hebert, from Galveston County Tax Assessor-Collector Cheryl Johnson, and from the state's top lawyer. To wit: "This is Attorney General Greg Abbott with an important reminder that Election Day is this coming Tuesday, March 7th. Congressman Tom DeLay has been attacked by liberal Democrats from across the country. Now it's time to show these Democrats we stand for our conservative congressman and will support Tom in this election. More than ever, we need a congressman who isn't afraid to take on the Democrats and fight for our conservative Texas values. I hope you will join me in supporting our friend, Tom DeLay. Please vote for him on Tuesday." • Van Taylor, trying for the Republican nomination to challenge U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, got a visit from his friendly neighborhood governor. Rick Perry endorsed Taylor over fellow Republican Tucker Anderson. In a taped message Taylor stuck on his website (at www.vantaylor.com), Perry said he's the better candidate to take on Edwards in November. Public squabbling between the Republican candidates and between the county chairs of the GOP in that district, have gotten the incumbent's attention. Edwards campaign has been emailing news clips to political reporters with the snarkiest parts highlighted in bright yellow. • Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell closed the Austin part of his primary campaign with a Sunday rally featuring an endorsement from Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos, D-Austin. The two won't serve together, even if Bell wins: Barrientos isn't seeking reelection. • The loudest of the state's Senate primaries ends with Sen. Frank Madla, D-San Antonio, debating an empty chair on television and with Rep. Carlos Uresti's campaign advisors filing an ethics complaint against Madla. The TV debate was set up when Uresti said he'd joust anytime and anyplace. He backed out, but the show went on without him and Madla got an open forum. Meanwhile, the Uresti camp complained to the local DA that Madla's campaign accounting didn't include all of the money it should have. His numbers don't match those filed by Texans for Lawsuit Reform, according to the complaints. The PAC reported giving $655,707 while Madla reported receiving $36,772. Madla's camp says it's a timing issue and that the numbers will match when the report dates synchronize. Somebody out on the Internet sent a note to Uresti's campaign that was scribbled on the bottom of an email that appears to have come from Helen Madla. The email urges people to vote on "Tuesday, May 6th." The note scribbled at the bottom: "You should win your election Representative Uresti because Senator Madla's wife doesn't know when election day is." • Gov. Rick Perry hit three hot spots on election eve, making campaign visits to Reps. Kent Grusendorf, R-Arlington, Vicki Truitt, R-Keller, and Elvira Reyna, R-Mesquite. All three incumbents face primary opposition. • Diane Patrick -- the Republican school board member challenging House Education Grusendorf, R-Arlington -- took a late hit from several local conservatives who disagreed with her votes on textbooks as a member of the State Board of Education in 1994. That's been one of Grusendorf's themes, and he's got reinforcements: Tarrant County GOP Chair Stephanie Klick, former Chair Steve Hollern, and former Christian Coalition Chair Scott Fisher held an election eve presser to take his side. Patrick ended last week with an ethics complaint against Grusendorf, accusing him of passing out anonymous handouts. Those handouts were put on tables at a candidate forum and were targeted at those textbook votes by Patrick. The flyer included pictures of naked men, according to the Patrick camp. Grusendorf denied having anything to do with them and suggested the Patrick campaign handed them out to generate a sympathetic backlash.

Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky's Election Day agenda includes taking her mother to the polls and inviting reporters for a five-mile run in the middle of the afternoon. That's apparently the U.S. Senate candidate's daily regimen. • Martin Rogoff, one of the GOP precinct chairs whose name was on a letter endorsing Senate candidate Dan Patrick, pulled his name and says he'll be voting for Rep. Joe Nixon in that Houston-area contest. Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale sent out an email critical of Patrick and his campaign; Van Arsdale said he'd been attacked for his support of Nixon. Rogoff says now he's with Van Arsdale and didn't get a look at the endorsement letter that had his name on it. He says he doesn't "want to be associated with the tactics of the precinct chairs that are viciously supporting Dan." Nixon's camp, meanwhile, says Patrick listed the support of 117 GOP precinct chairs in a recent mailer and adds that 29 of them aren't actually precinct chairs. • First Lady Anita Perry opens a get-out-the-vote email with a sure indication that the people in the Governor's Mansion are not worried about their own hides: " While there aren't any high profile statewide contests that are grabbing headlines, there are still many races that are critical to the future of our great state." Her husband, Gov. Rick Perry, has three primary opponents.

The Texas Parent PAC, formed as a foil to state legislators who have resisted higher spending on schools while pushing state-level reforms in public education, endorsed a slate of candidates from both parties in their first outing as a political group. You can use this to score their efforts.The group endorsed all five Republican incumbents challenged by candidates financed by Dr. James Leininger of San Antonio, a voucher advocate whose views the TPP opposes: Reps. Roy Blake Jr. of Nacogdoches, Carter Casteel of New Braunfels, Charlie Geren of Fort Worth, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, and Tommy Merritt of Longview. The group endorsed four Republicans in open-seat contests: Jimmie Don Aycock of Killen in HD-54; Anne Lakusta of Flower Mound in HD-63; Drew Mouton of Big Spring in HD-85; and Vicky Rudy of Montgomery in HD-16. Their pick in the open SD-3 was Republican Bob Reeves of Center. The group targeted six incumbent Republicans: Betty Brown of Terrell in HD-4; Larry Phillips of Sherman in HD-62; Scott Campbell of San Angelo in HD-71; David Swinford of Amarillo in HD-87; Kent Grusendorf of Arlington in HD-94; and Elvira Reyna of Mesquite in HD-101. No incumbent Democrats were on their hit list, but they endorsed several who were challenged in their primaries, including Dora Olivo of Missouri City in HD-27; Richard Raymond of Laredo in HD-42; Juan Escobar of Kingsville in HD-43; Chente Quintanilla of Tornillo in HD-75; Norma Chavez of El Paso in HD-76; Joe Pickett of El Paso in HD-79; Helen Giddings of Dallas in HD-109; Jesse Jones of Dallas in HD-110; Kevin Bailey of Houston, in HD-140, and Garnet Coleman of Houston in HD-147.

A quick rundown of the results of last night's party primaries.Voter turnout stunk. With some counts still out, it appears the Republicans attracted 675,239 voters, or 5.3 percent of those registered, and the Democrats attracted 522,129, or 4.1 percent. • Nobody in the state's congressional delegation got beat. U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, has a comfortable lead over former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, with some ballots still left to count. And former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, got 62 percent in the GOP primary, living to face Democrat Nick Lampson in November in a race of national interest. Van Taylor, the richer of the two Republicans seeking to challenge U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco, and the one with the Iraq war on his resume, won that primary. • Six incumbent state legislators -- a senator and five House members -- lost their bids for reelection. Frank Madla, D-San Antonio, in incomplete returns, appears to have fallen to Rep. Carlos Uresti. Diane Patrick, R-Arlington, beat House Public Education Chairman Kent Grusendorf in a race seen in Austin as a referendum on leadership plans for education. Truth be told, it's also a story about an incumbent going unchallenged for a long time and then getting up too slowly when serious competition finally arrived; your previous case study, two years ago, was House Appropriations Chairman Talmadge Heflin, R-Houston. Two more incumbents from the Dallas area are out, though by possibly recountable margins: Jesse Jones, D-Dallas, lost to Barbara Caraway, and Elvira Reyna, R-Mesquite, lost to Thomas Latham. • Two of the so-called Leininger Five -- Roy Blake Jr. of Nacogdoches and Carter Casteel of New Braunfels -- lost to Republican challengers. Former Rep. Wayne Christian, R-Center, beat Blake with plenty of room to spare. Nathan Macias of Bulverde had a 45-vote margin, out of more than 20,000 votes, in the Election Night count; that'll likely lead to a recount. Three others -- Charlie Geren of Fort Worth, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, and Tommy Merritt of Longview -- won handily. • There'll be a runoff for U.S. Senate, between Barbara Ann Radnofsky, who got 43.4%, and Gene Kelly, who got 37.4%. • Chris Bell is the Democrats' nominee for governor, getting 63.7% of the vote and putting Bob Gammage to bed. Gov. Rick Perry got 84 percent against three no-names. • There will be a runoff for lite Guv between Maria Luisa Alvarado (39.9%) and Ben Z. Grant (38.7 percent). Grant, with less than 40 percent of the vote, had the only non-Hispanic name in that contest. On the GOP side, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst got 78 percent against Tom Kelly, a political unknown. • In HD-38, Eddie Lucio III will join his dad in the Lege. Lucio the elder is in the Senate; the younger won a seat in the House last night. • They're still counting votes in Laredo's HD-42 and with a couple of boxes still out, Richard Raymond is 26 votes from an outright win over three challengers. • In HD-146, Rep. Al Edwards, D-Houston, was forced into a runoff against Borris Miles. • And in HD-72, Rep. Scott Campbell, R-San Angelo, will face a runoff with Drew Darby, who finished first in a three-way race there. • A couple of other Republican House members with stiff challenges both won, but in HD-78, where El Paso Rep. Pat Haggerty beat Lorraine O'Donnell by 96 votes, expect a recount. Rep. David Swinford, R-Dumas, was in trouble a few weeks ago, but pulled it out, getting 57.5% against Anette Carlisle. • Courts: Justice Don Willett had a three percentage point win over former Justice Steve Smith for the Texas Supreme Court. Sharon Keller, presiding judge of the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, beat back a challenge from Tom Price, who'll remain in his seat on that court. And Charles Holcomb and Terry Keel will run for Holcomb's spot on that court; Robert Francis of Dallas is out of that one. • Republican voters put three folks running in open seats on trajectories for the Texas Senate. In SD-3, former highway commissioner Robert Nichols, R-Jacksonville, got 54% in a four-man field. In SD-7, radio talk show host Dan Patrick, R-Houston, got 69% in a four-way that included two state reps and a Houston city councilman. And in SD-18, Rep. Glenn Hegar, R-Katy, got 55% in his primary.

A chart is worth (well over) a million bucks....

Gamboa, Perry, Wentworth, Leininger, and DeLayLULAC's Ramiro "Gambi" Gamboa, quoted in the Corpus Christi Caller-Times on the state's decision not to fund operations at the already-built Irma Rangel Pharmacy school: "It's plain as day. They've given us a brand new Mercedes without the tires and motors, they've given us a Whataburger without the burger." Gov. Rick Perry, quoted by the Associated Press on his excitement on the eve of the primaries: "I've been doing this for 22 years. This is just another day at the office for me, and as will Tuesday be and then there will be Wednesday.? Sen. Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio, on Dr. James Leininger's big spending on politics, in the San Antonio Express-News: "There are so many wealthy people who are interested in politics. That's just life. Those with money can by a Maserati, and those of us who don't have the kind of money have to buy a lesser car. That's just the way it works." Leininger, in the same paper, saying his detractors are doubling his net worth when they call him a billionaire: "They're trying to paint me as this evil billionaire trying to buy the Legislature. I'm only half-evil." U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, running an auction to raise money for the Harris County Republican Party and quoted by the Houston Chronicle: "I'm like a cemetery -- I'll take anything!"

The state's senior U.S. senator is finding out the hard way that the Internet is unforgiving of typos.In an email to supporters of U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, her staff urges them to vote for her in a Parade Magazine feature on eight women to watch in advance of the 2008 elections. The address to do that is www.thewhitehouseproject.org. But the Hutchison gang directed their followers to a slightly different address, apparently by accident: www.whitehouseproject.org. The first one is a website devoted to the idea of putting a woman in the White House. The second one steals some of the same words but is all about dating and music and ads that range from starting a blog to finding all kinds of sex partners.

For all their talk about education "reform," there is little in the legislative leadership's reform proposals that would actually help most Texas children learn or make better use of education tax dollars. Instead, the leadership focuses mostly on punishing the "worst" schools, ignoring the need for higher standards for all students. Most Texas children attend schools that are good, but not great. Real reform must help these schools get better. And real accountability should control costs, not increase them.
Testing to Encourage Achievement Let's start with our tests. The TAKS measures only one level of difficulty for each grade, so once a student achieves at the required level, doing better doesn't improve TAKS ratings. If TAKS were a high jump competition, each time you cleared the bar, you would go back and jump again without raising the bar. Real reform encourages all kids to do their best, not just "good enough." Tests like the SAT cover a broad range of aptitude to recognize true achievement. Our tests should do the same. And, while we're at it, if we really want the most education for our money, we must stop wasting valuable class time teaching kids test-taking tricks and gimmicks that are worthless after testing day. Better Teachers in the Classroom We all agree we need more qualified teachers in our classrooms. If you want to become a lawyer, the state helps pay for your training. Not so if you're a college graduate and want to become certified as a teacher. If we're serious about wanting qualified professionals to become teachers, we should make them the same deal we make prospective lawyers. Many school districts now use local funds to help prospective teachers pay for training. But the Governor's "65% reform" would penalize districts that pay for teacher training because it's not money spent "in the classroom," even though a well-trained teacher is exactly who we need in the classroom. In his State of the Union address, President Bush highlighted deficiencies in science and math education. One ill-fated "reform" lowered teacher training requirements to lure engineers to teach math and science. It didn't work. Most engineers aren't interested in teaching K-12, and many who try burn out quickly when faced with classroom challenges for relatively low pay. Instead of lowering training standards to make engineers into teachers, we should help successful teachers improve their math and science skills. They may not be able to teach calculus, but a properly-trained successful teacher could motivate kids and provide a strong math-science foundation. Then our top math and science teachers could take those kids the next mile. Making Tax Dollars Accountable In the name of accountability, school districts spend millions on computers that fill out state financial reports. The leadership's "reform" plan would force districts to make costly changes to these reports, supposedly to make it easier for citizens to spot suspicious expenditures. Meanwhile, the state continues to throw the reports in a drawer. Fortunately, there are dedicated taxpayers who have time to read reports and attend board meetings. But it's not their job to manage the schools, and we shouldn't rely on them to be our only watchdogs. Last year, H. Ross Perot recommended using "tiger teams" of state auditors to carefully review district spending nearly as it happens. They'd look for anything out of line and provide warnings to school board members and the public, to stop wasteful practices early. And, if the state insists on collecting data a certain way, it should provide standard accounting software, so school districts could stop wasting time and money on software changes that have nothing to do with educating kids. Raising the Bar for Success Unfortunately, other items on the leadership's agenda also miss the mark. One "reform" would force local school boards to hold their elections on the same day as statewide partisan elections. This has everything to do with partisan politics and nothing to do with learning, but it's a "line-in-the-sand" item for the leadership. And a proposal to have the state set the beginning and ending dates for the school year simply slaps the "reform" label on removing local community control. In this spring's special session, the legislature should discuss common sense reforms that help all children learn and help us get the most out of our tax dollars. Absent that discussion, a leadership agenda that claims to be "reform" will fail our children. Hochberg, D-Houston, serves on the House Public Education Committee. He can be reached at www.scotthochberg.com.

Following the lack of consensus during the 79th Legislative Session and the Supreme Court decision, in the West Orange-Cove II case, that the State has an unconstitutional state property tax, Governor Rick Perry created a 24-member commission to make tax recommendations. Governor Perry appointed former Comptroller John Sharp to chair the committee whose objective is to develop a constitutional school finance funding system.The Texas Solicitor General, Ted Cruz, outlined five ways to address the Court's ruling. Among these ways is to buy down the property tax rate. According to Chairman Sharp, cutting school property taxes by one-third (from approximately $1.50 per $100 to $1.00) should satisfy the court. Reducing school property taxes by a third would require around $5.5 billion in state funding. One way to raise this revenue is by reforming the state franchise tax. Currently, the franchise tax provides $1.9 billion in revenue to the State. However, as the tax applies only to corporations, a significant number of businesses are not liable for this tax. One proposal under consideration would replace the existing franchise tax with an "alternative margins tax." This tax would allow businesses (both corporations and partnerships) to deduct either their total cost of goods sold or total employee compensation from gross receipts. The first computation would be similar to a value-added tax base (gross profit), while the second would be a tax on non-compensation costs plus net profit. Firms would be able to select the base that minimizes their tax liability. Using data from the IRS for corporations and partnerships for tax year 2002, and data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the estimated tax base for Texas businesses is $511.1 billion. Applying a uniform one percent rate would result in tax receipts of $5.1 billion. As the "alternative margins tax" would replace the franchise tax, which produced over $1.9 billion in FY2002, the net benefit to the State would be $3.2 billion, or enough to reduce school property taxes by 30 cents. While the "new" franchise tax would increase revenue by 250 percent, as shown in the table below, the distribution of the tax by industry under the "new" franchise tax would change markedly. With the "alternative margins tax," the proportion of tax paid by insurance and real estate, and services would increase substantially. All other industries would experience a decline in the proportion of tax paid.

For those just tuning in, that would mean a Republican state comptroller running as an independent has one of the state's prominent Democratic consultants among her advisors.Aides to Carole Keeton Strayhorn aides say consultant George Shipley isn't on the payroll yet, but they expect him to be helping the campaign. Shipley has been an advisor to a long list of Democrats over the years, including Ann Richards, Bob Bullock, Dan Morales, Henry Cisneros and Judith Zaffirini. In recent years, he's been working with the five lawyers who won a huge settlement for the state from the tobacco industry.

Lamb moves, Blifford takes HAC, Robbins gets to keep the big desk, and some appointments get handed out.Caasi Lamb is moving from the House Appropriations Committee, where she was director, to Speaker Tom Craddick's office as a policy analyst for corrections, business and industry and government reform. Andrew Blifford will take over the House committee's budget staff. He's worked for Appropriations Chair Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie, for the last three-and-a-half years, most recently as legislative director. Take the "interim" off the executive director title on Pat Sweeney Robbins' desk. The board of the Associated Republicans of Texas elected her to replace Norm Newton, who's held the job since 1975. Newbie state Rep. Donna Howard, D-Austin, will get spots on the House Judiciary Committee and the Committee on Culture, Recreation and Tourism. House Speaker Tom Craddick assigned those after she was sworn in last week, and the assignments will hold until after the November elections, when committees are rebuilt. Alan Johnson, a Harlingen banker and a retired U.S. Army captain, will join the Veteran's Land Board. The appointment was Gov. Rick Perry's; the chairman of the VLB is Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson. Johnson is replacing the late Mike Ussery of Amarillo.
Three appointments and a reappointment to the Texas Board of Professional Land Surveying: Nedra Foster, president of Shine and Associates in Silsbee; Paul Kwan, president of Landtech Consultants in Houston; Anthony Trevino Jr., a Laredo attorney; and Douglas William Turner of League City, also with Landtech.

Railroad Commission Chair Elizabeth Ames Jones entered the final weekend with endorsements from every non-judicial statewide official except for Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn.An aide to Jones says they didn't ask for the comptroller's blessing. Strayhorn, the top vote getter of any GOP candidate four years ago, is running as an independent against Gov. Rick Perry, who appointed Jones to the RRC. Strayhorn wouldn't have endorsed Jones if she'd been asked, as it turns out. Doing so, in the view of Strayhorn's attorneys, would have put her independent candidacy at risk. Like the voters who sign their petitions, independent candidates disqualify themselves if they vote in primaries. But for the candidates, it goes further. Strayhorn's camp interprets the law to say she can't take part in any activities of a political party: endorsing their candidates, voting in their primaries, going to their functions, you name it. Jones did her a favor by not asking for her support.

Five senators and at least 17 House members will be in office for a special session this spring knowing they won't return for a regular session next January. Another three House members are in primary runoffs and will know on April 12th whether voters want them around after the end of the year.With the exceptions of two House members who hope to be in the Senate next year, those legislators will be voting as if their political futures don't depend on it. They've got nothing to lose, feeding speculation about the prospects for a tax bill and about the political stability of Speaker Tom Craddick, who's expected to seek another term in the House's top job when the Lege convenes next January. Five are leaving the upper chamber: Sens. Ken Armbrister, D-Victoria; Gonzalo Barrientos, D-Austin; Jon Lindsay, R-Houston; Frank Madla, D-San Antonio; and Todd Staples, R-Palestine. In the House, the Dead Members Walking include Reps. Roy Blake Jr., R-Nacogdoches; Carter Casteel, New Braunfels; Mary Denny, R-Aubrey; Bob Griggs, R-North Richland Hills; Kent Grusendorf, R-Arlington; Peggy Hamric, R-Houston; Glenn Hegar Jr., R-Katy; Ruben Hope Jr., R-Conroe; Bob Hunter, R-Abilene; Suzanna Gratia Hupp, R-Lampasas; Jesse Jones, D-Dallas; Terry Keel, R-Austin; Pete Laney, D-Hale Center; Joe Nixon, R-Houston; Elvira Reyna, R-Mesquite; Jim Solis, D-Harlingen; Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio. Put asterisks next to Hegar and Uresti; they won primaries for Senate seats and might be back in bigger offices. A few House incumbents have runoff elections ahead of them and will find out next month whether they're dead or alive, politically speaking: Reps. Scott Campbell, R-San Angelo; Al Edwards, D-Houston; and Richard Raymond, D-Laredo. Three members will serve in the special session for the first time, getting their first bite at school finance: Kirk England, R-Grand Prairie; Ana Hernandez, D-Houston; and Donna Howard, D-Austin. All three won special elections to replace members who died or resigned. And then there's a group that won't be named until November: Members who will find out in the general election that they are currently serving their last term in the Legislature. But they'll be voting and behaving in a special session as if they're coming back; the free agents are the people who'll know during the special session that their days of political risk -- and perhaps, caution -- are behind them.

Legislators seeking higher offices got mixed results on Election Day.Sen. Todd Staples, R-Palestine, didn't have an opponent in the GOP primary for agriculture commissioner; he's okay so far. Rep. Terry Keel, an Austin Republican who was the only other lawmaker seeking statewide office, will be in a runoff against incumbent Judge Charles Holcomb for the GOP nomination to the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals. Houston Republican Reps. Peggy Hamric and Joe Nixon finished second and third in a race for state Senate. Reps. Glenn Hegar Jr., R-Katy, and Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio, won their primaries for state Senate and move to the next round. Uresti beat Sen. Frank Madla; Hegar was running for Ken Armbrister's spot since the Victoria Democrat didn't seek another term. Rep. Ruben Hope Jr., R-Conroe, decided he'd rather be a state district judge than serve a fifth term in the House. Now he's headed for a runoff. He got 32 percent of the vote in a six-person race for the 258th District Court. He'll face Cara Wood, who got 25 percent, on April 11. The last-place finisher in that field is a former House member: Keith Valigura.

Sen. Mario Gallegos released the following statement today: "I have been increasingly aware and concerned that I have a disease. I am an alcoholic.""Through this disease, I have injured my health and caused pain to my family. For the sake of those whom I represent in the Texas Legislature, my family, and for my own well-being, under the guidance of my physician I recently quit drinking and am currently enrolled in a one month residential treatment program to help get me on the right track toward a healthier lifestyle. "I am in contact with my legislative staff so that I may remain abreast of the issues and responsive to my constituents. I plan to continue my legislative duties and will devote my full energies to representing the people of the 6th Senatorial district as we move into an expected special session on public education funding. "I am proud to represent the people of my Senate district, and I want them to be proud of me. I ask for your support and prayers as I battle this disease."