He's still mostly ignoring Kinky Friedman, but Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell has trained his sights on Republican-turned-independent Carole Keeton Strayhorn, emphasizing what she's got in common with incumbent Gov. Rick Perry.Bell's trying to keep Democrats together while pushing Republicans to choose between the governor and the comptroller they elected four years ago. It's a new tack from a candidate who had been focused mainly on Perry. And it produced a blast from Strayhorn, who insists that the contest is between her, Perry, and some also-rans. All this comes a week after Friedman started talking about policy for the first time, laying out his ideas on ethics reform.
Bell, whose ethics complaint in the House was an early volley in Democrat's efforts to sink Tom DeLay, started his visit to the Democratic convention with visits to their special interest caucuses. At the labor caucus, he got a check from the Texas AFL-CIO's political action committee. This happened on Friday, June 9. "It's great to be accepting money," he said, "in front of a large group of people on Tom DeLay's last day in office."
His pitch to delegates actually worked better in his short presentations to the various Democratic caucuses than in his speech to the convention. The short form: Perry and Strayhorn will split the Republican vote and if Democrats stick together, they'll be strong enough to win the race. "It is a strange year, my friends, and I'm not just talking about Kinky Friedman," Bell said. Here's the longer form: Strayhorn's votes, in Bell's analysis, will come from Perry. In recent elections, Republicans have landed 52 to 60 percent of the vote in contested races. If Strayhorn or even Friedman cut Perry down into the 35 to 40 percent range, a Democrat who gets all of his base vote that would be Bell would have enough to win. In his formulation, 60 percent of Texans appear ready to vote against Perry. (The view from the Perry camp, which we've written about before this, is that he'll get the Republican base vote, Bell will get the Democratic base vote, and everybody else will split what's left. Oh, and they say the Republican base vote is ten percentage points bigger than the Democratic base vote right now.)
The bit of information that seems to surprise people wherever this race is discussed is that someone can become governor of Texas or president of the United States, for that matter with less than 50 percent of the vote. Ann Richards did it in 1990, for instance, when she beat Clayton Williams with slightly less than half the votes cast (the rest went to Libertarian Jeff Daiell and some write-in candidates).
Bell told one group that he has to overcome the conventional wisdom of the race: "People get excited about campaigns when they see the opportunity to win."