Hutchison and Perry are still in front, but the margins are smaller...

The monthly Zogby/Wall Street Journal Battleground States Poll has U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison under 50 percent but still ahead of Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky of Houston. The poll puts Hutchison at 45.2 percent and Radnofsky at 36.8 percent; a month ago, they had them at 61 percent and 31 percent, respectively. And this month's poll includes a strong showing by Libertarian Scott Jameson, the favorite of 7.1 percent of the respondents.

In the Guv's race, they've got Republican Rick Perry slipping to 30.7 percent, followed by Democrat Chris Bell at 25.3 percent, independents Kinky Friedman at 22.4 percent and Carole Keeton Strayhorn at 11.1 percent, and Libertarian James Werner at 2.6 percent. At one point earlier this year, they had Perry 20 percentage points ahead of the next-best candidate.

The poll's got a 2.9 percent margin of error. They did the survey from August 29 through September 5.

A new Rasmussen Poll on the governor's race has Perry at 33 percent, Strayhorn at 22 percent, Bell at 18 percent and Friedman at 16 percent. Perry's "favorables" fell under 50 percent, to 48; Strayhorn's, previously below 50, rose to 53. Detailed results are open only to their subscribers at the moment; they generally open the results to the hoi polloi after about a week.

The ads are on television, and the knives are sharpened. Press releases, interviews, photos and videos of campaign events are popping up everywhere on the Internet. Game on. Let's just hope the fans of this contact sport don't leave Austin as messy on November 8 as disappointed University of Texas tailgaters did after their defeat to Ohio State.

Kinky Thoughts

Independent candidate for governor, Richard "Kinky" Friedman, made waves all over the blog world this week. He admitted he'd used cocaine years ago, as a semi-apology after calling some Hurricane Katrina evacuees in Houston "crackheads."

Bobby L. Warren at Progressive Texan said, "I realize that there are politicians who have used illegal drugs in the past, but usually the admissions have been limited to marijuana. Cocaine, however, is a very different matter all together."

Charles Kuffnerat Off the Kuff noted, "Friedman is supposed to be this 'straight shooter' and 'anti—politician' who 'tells it like it is' (don't believe me — the man says so his own self). Yet when he says ugly, racist crap like this, we're told we need to get a sense of humor, because hey, he doesn't really mean it. He's the Kinkster! He's just joking!"

No site is more dedicated to the defeat of Friedman than the aptly named Stop Kinky! blog. This week it links to various news reports over the past year where Friedman says one thing and then the other.

But since Right Wing Sparkle appears to be charmed — "The more I researched Kinky, the more I loved him, I have to admit. He calls Democrats and Republicans "the Crips and the Bloods." That is just perfect" — perhaps it's true that Friedman is cutting into Gov. Perry's base.

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Poll of the Week

This week's WSJ/Zogby poll — even if some folks think it uses questionable methods — gives hope to Democratic supporters. John Cobarruvias at Bay Area Houston thinks candidate Chris Bell is within striking distance now of Gov. Rick Perry. "... if the voters in this state would take this race seriously, stop drinking for a while, and quit thinking cute nicknames means good government, Chris (Bell) can make this a race. One thing is clear though, 68% of voters in Texas can't stand (Rick) Perry."

Houstopia said political consultants first thought Friedman would take voters away from Bell. Now, it appears he may be siphoning voters away from Gov. Perry. "If Kinky can begin to eat into Perry's base — even just 4 or 5% of it, and Bell can get desperately needed funding for TV down the stretch, there's a ball game folks. (Carole) Strayhorn, while fading as a candidate, remains very dangerous to her enemy Perry by virtue of her ability to savage him on television straight through Election Day. The situation is incredibly fluid right now and frankly fun to watch."

Karl-Thomas Musselman of Burnt Orange Report is keeping tabs on several public polls, Wall Street Journal/Zogby, Rasmussen, and Survey USA, and how they're tracking over time.

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Rolling Out the Ads

Right around Labor Day, Gov. Perry and Strayhorn began running television ads. Paul Burka at Texas Monthly's BurkaBlog analyzed two from the Strayhorn camp, saying one "works," but the other is "boring." As for questions about exactly when Strayhorn, a former Austin mayor and school board member, became an Austin outsider, Burka said, "It was when she said that the state budget passed by the 2003 legislative session didn't balance and threatened not to certify it. From then on, she was anathema to the Republican leadership, and vice versa."

Rawhide at Pink Dome said, "Governor Perry's first ad has something for everybody — safety for the moms, border talk for the racists, a Hispanic for the Hispanics, an airplane for, uhh, flying enthusiasts, and a rugged, handsome governor for the closeted NASCAR types. Git 'R Done Governor."

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A Different Kind of Governor's Race

Evan at Rick Perry vs. The World analyzes each candidate for governor's popularity on MySpace and wonders if friends translate into votes.

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Joining the Ranks

State Rep./Speaker candidate Senfronia Thompson, D-Houston, has decided to follow Rep. Aaron Peña's lead into blogging (his is called A Capitol Blog). Hers is called The Little Dog Report because she "believes that even 'little dogs' deserve a shot in their government." We'll be watching to see if that dog barks or bites.

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Cruising in Texas

Photos of a celebrity baby have nothing to do with Texas politics, but that didn't keep Texas bloggers (or us) from finding a way to jump on the media bandwagon. And it didn't stop us: One funny line makes all the partisan blogging we read SO worth it.

PinkDome doctored the magazine cover photo of actor Tom Cruise, actress Katie Holmes, and their daughter Suri into something truly frightening.

And a regular contributor at In The Pink Texas, Lurkette, gave us what may be the pun of the year, regarding the baby's full head of hair: "Ok, if that is indeed her real hair, I'm sorry to say, that would make her a Suri with a fringe on top."

Independent gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman is hitting the TV trail with two new ads they say they'll be showing on television in 14 cities around the state. The first of the two ads, called "Good Shepherd," shows Friedman inside and outside at his Utopia Animal Rescue Ranch in Medina. Here's the script, all read by the candidate himself while a guitar plays quietly in the background:

"Folks, I heard and old-time preacher read from the Book of John the other day. He said the Good Shepherd knows and recognizes his own and his own know and recognize him. And when the wolves come, the hired hands flee. But the Good Shepherd stays. Folks, we don't need a politician as governor anymore. We need a Good Shepherd. I want to be your Good Shepherd. I'm Kinky Friedman and that's why I'm running for governor of Texas."

In the second commercial, called "Clean Energy, Clean Government," Friedman is sitting in an idiosyncratic office. Again, he's the voice talent for the spot, and there's a soft guitar playing underneath his voice. The script:

"Look, I'm 61 years old. Too young for Medicare, and too old for women to care. But I care about what's happened to Texas. For the first time in history, Texas is importing energy. Now that ain't right. Folks, it's time for a change. Remember: There's a difference between a politician and a statesman. A politician's thinking about the next election. A statesman's thinking about the next generation. I'm Kinky Friedman, and that's why I'm running for governor of Texas."

The Friedman camp is quite a bit more open about their TV buy than the competition, saying the spots will run 5,000 times on cable and broadcast stations in 14 television markets in the state, including all but one of the big ones — Austin. Laura Stromberg, the campaign's press secretary, says that's because resources are scarce and the candidate is already well-known in the state capital. She didn't say what the campaign is spending on the ads or how long they'll run.

In HD-11, the Republican candidate is touting upcoming endorsement and fundraising visits from Gov. Rick Perry and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst while the Democrat is showing off a poll that says Perry's not popular enough there to offer the GOP's challenger a ride on his coattails.Pollsters for Rep. Chuck Hopson, D-Jacksonville, say he's ahead of Republican Larry Durrett, R-Jacksonville, by a 55-28 margin (or why would they show us the poll, right?). The Libertarian in the race, Paul "Blue" Story, of Henderson, wasn't mentioned in the poll memo.

Hopson, according to 300 people surveyed by the Florida-based Kitchens Group in mid-August, is better known and has a favorable-to-unfavorable ratio of 6-to-1. Durrett's, they say, is 2-to-1, which is respectable (particularly if you've seen numbers for the top four candidates in the race for governor).

Perry, they say, is the favorite of 40 percent of the voters in the district. The pollsters — again, we'll stress that this memo was written for persuasive purposes — contrast that with the popularity of the George W. Bush at the top of the ticket two years ago. To be fair, you'd have to blend in numbers (which we don't have) for U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who'll be at the top of the ticket and is leading in statewide polls. She's been popular in that part of East Texas in past years.

Durrett's not laying down. Perry's coming in for an endorsement, and Dewhurst was listed as the headliner for a fundraiser this week (Thursday). Durrett touted that last one as Dewhurst's only appearance this year for a legislative candidate. Sen. Todd Staples, who's running for Texas Agriculture Commissioner and who used to hold that House seat, is also working for Durrett. Perry will drop in next week (Monday) to make an endorsement and to headline another fundraiser. The Dewhurst deal is in Cherokee County; the Perry deal is in Rusk County.

Texas colleges remain less affordable than those in other states, according to one report; another says the deficit in the state's prepaid college tuition program is half what had been predicted.

Texas colleges got an "F" on affordability on the latest biennial study from the National Report Card on Higher Education. Their diagnosis is scary: "Texas’ underperformance in educating its young population could limit the state’s access to a competitive workforce and weaken its economy over time." They say the state's dropout rates are improving but remain higher than in other states. And they say the higher number of high school degrees hasn't increased the flow of students going on to college.

The affordability is figured by taking the cost of college less financial aid and dividing it into average family income. The numbers are daunting: Four year public schools cost 30 percent of the average family income in Texas; private schools cost 66 percent of the average family income each year. National averages are about half that. And the average U.S. student borrows $2,619 annually to pay for school; the corresponding Texas number is $3,541 per year.

A separate report — the 2005 annual financials from the Texas Tomorrow Fund — partly illustrates the problem. Enrollment in the state's prepaid college tuition program has been suspended since 2003, when the Legislature deregulated tuition rates. The state continues to honor contracts already purchased, but doesn't sell new ones anymore. That's an indefinite suspension of new business, put in place because of the uncertainty over what to charge new entrants. The freed-up tuition rates are part of the formula for setting the price for the paid-in-advance system.

Between those fast tuition increases and the slow stock market at the beginning of the decade, the plan ran up huge liabilities. Those are shrinking, but as of a year ago (the latest number available), the program had "unfunded liabilities" of $107.7 million. That's the difference between what it'll cost to send contracted kids to school and what they paid for their contracts. Those families got a deal, but the state is on the hook for the difference, which you'd have to put down as one cost of deregulating tuition. It's getting better: The equivalent number from August 2004 was $222.8 billion. The actuaries had predicted that the deficit a year ago would be 241.3 million, an increase from the previous year; they didn't expect any improvement and they got a considerable one. The program's annual report credits stock market gains, lower than expected increases in tuition and fees, and an accounting change.

DeLay's charges fester in high court, a new legislative blogger, the Parent PAC is back, and Fort Worth might get a new park out of a state land sale.

• The state's highest criminal court will reconsider a decision to toss conspiracy charges against former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land. The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals will look at a district judge's decision to throw out one of two conspiracy charges against DeLay. Among other things, that'll delay DeLay's pending trial on the remaining charges. The charges stem from a $190,000 swap between state and federal Republicans; the guys on this end sent corporate money and received money from individuals in return. The sent money couldn't legally be used in state races here; the returned money could. DeLay and two others — Jim Ellis and John Colyandro — were accused of conspiring to violate state election laws. And the question for the courts is whether that was legal at the time, in 2002.

• Add Rep. Senfronia Thompson, D-Houston, to your list of legislative bloggers. Thompson, who's also the only declared challenger to House Speaker Tom Craddick for the job of presiding officer, calls her blog The Little Dog Report and says she was inspired to start her online scribbling by Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Brownsville. He's been at it for a good while, writing A Capitol Blog.

• The Texas Parent PAC will back Democrat Joe Heflin in the race to replace former House Speaker Pete Laney in the Texas House. They came up with a weird statistic: He's got 24 public school educators in his immediate and extended family. And they took a swipe at the Republican in the race, Jim Landtroop, whose supporters include Dr. James Leininger, the San Antonio voucher advocate. Their guy, they say, " will not be beholden to big campaign contributors who seek to weaken public schools by using tax-funded vouchers to pay for private school tuition in Houston and Dallas." Landtroop got $5,000 from Leininger almost a year ago.

• Follow-up: Gov. Rick Perry announced the sale of 400 acres near Eagle Mountain Lake in Fort Worth, a deal that will give the state money to buy more parkland, that will leave the Eagle Mountain property's mineral rights in state hands and that will open the land up as a park. The prospective buyers — they still have to raise the money — include the Tarrant Regional Water District and the Trust for Public Land. Democrat Chris Bell contends Perry came around only because of pressure from locals and from gubernatorial opponents. The Guv's staff says the $10 million deal has been in the works but that negotiations prevented them from talking about it until now.