The Legislative Budget Board wants state agencies to start off the next fiscal cycle with budget requests that use only 90 percent of what the agencies get now. The reductions don't apply to public education funding just fixed by lawmakers, to debt service for bonds, to prisons, or to federal programs the state can't cut. Here's the letter:
The only hurdle remaining for Gov. Rick Perry's new business tax is Perry himself.Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn says the new business tax passed by the Legislature and on its way to the governor doesn't have any math problems and doesn't require the state to spend more than it's got. But she added a note to her certification: "I am certifying the appropriation in this bill as required by the Constitution because it is within available revenue, but I believe portions of the tax enacted by this bill constitute a personal income tax and are unconstitutional."
The tax bill doesn't spend any money. It kills the current corporate franchise tax and replaces it with a levy on adjusted gross revenues of corporations and partnerships in the state. Businesses can choose what they deduct -- either their cost of goods sold, or their (most) employee compensation. Most would pay the state one percent of what's left after that calculation; retailers and wholesalers would pay 1/2 of one percent.
Perry and former Comptroller John Sharp, who headed the gubernatorial commission that came up with the tax, say it's not an income tax for the simple reason that companies would have to pay it even in years when they don't make money. Strayhorn and some lawyers say that the tax on partners in law firms and other outfits makes it a personal income tax. Perry and Sharp are relying on legal opinions that say the tax applies to the partnerships and not to the individual partners and dodges the bullet.
The attorney general's first assistant, Barry McBee, sent a letter making that argument to Perry's office. But Strayhorn has asked AG Greg Abbott himself to issue a formal letter opinion on the subject. That request is still pending.
Perry has ten days to sign the bill, let it become law without his signature, or veto it.
Strayhorn's letter to Perry, and her handwritten note on the certification:
Your state comptroller, who wants to be living in the Governor's Mansion a year from now, says she will repeal the new business tax if she gets that job.Carole Keeton Strayhorn's state office hasn't officially scored the bill yet, but she's blasting at it from her campaign headquarters, saying it will be $23 billion out of balance after five years and that it doesn't put any new money into education.
Gov. Rick Perry characterizes the five-bill school finance package as a net tax cut — one that spends more than it raises. And he and former Comptroller John Sharp, who helped devise the new business tax, say the state's economy will get a boost that will produce enough business and enough new state revenue to cover that difference.
Those are the bones of the stories the two candidates will be telling during the coming campaign for governor. Perry will tout lower property taxes, fairer business taxes and a solution to school finance. Strayhorn will stress the increase in business taxes, the lack of new money for schools, and the relatively skimpy pay raise for teachers who she says deserve more.
Strayhorn disagrees with Perry's optimism that the new tax rig will boost the economy, as does the Legislative Budget Board analysis of the plan; both say the bills cost $3 billion to $5 billion more than they brings in each year. The difference, she says, will have to be raised in other taxes, from an expansion of legalized gambling and/or other sources, or would have to be saved with cuts to other programs. Neither she nor the LBB tried to predict whether the economy will surge as a result of the change in taxes.
Perry cited studies from three different economists who contend the legislation will boost the economy and will, in spite of the "snapshot" numbers from the LBB and the comptroller, become a net plus to the economy. The state numbers don't include the impact of lower property taxes, and the politicos and the economists working for them say that'll make all the difference.
The raw numbers from the LBB, taken from the fiscal notes of four of the five bills (HB 2 directs the use of money, but doesn't actually raise or spend any, according to the analysts), show a net deficit to the state of $25.1 billion over five years. The first couple of years of that rely on the state surplus — also not included in the revenue numbers — but two thirds of the negative numbers are in years three, four and five. If the economists are right, no problem. But it's safe to say some of the number-crunchers are anxious about the "out years."
Nearly all of the spending happens in HB 1, where the property tax buydowns are spelled out. The annual numbers top $10 billion after a few years, while income from the new business tax and from increased taxes on used cars and cigarettes bring in just under $5 billion annually.
An analysis of the LBB numbers by an outside group — the Texas Taxpayers and Research Association — concluded the package will cost $3.5 billion in the current budget, $10.8 billion in the next, and $11.5 billion in the two-year budget after that one.
Actual mileage may vary. You can find arguments all over Austin about how much the new business tax will bring in. The LBB's estimate, based on numbers from the comptroller's office where the tax will be collected, is that the new tax will bring in almost $4 billion annually when it's up and running (that's after the current franchise taxes revenues are subtracted out). Some business people we know — and some of their lobbyists — think that number is low.
For now, the official numbers look like this, and these figures are what lawmakers had in hand when they voted.
Fort Bend is only one of the four counties with a say in who'll replace U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, on the ballot. But their members have their favorites. Check out this press release about their straw poll:Party Chairman Gary Gillen says the straw poll lists everybody who got a vote, whether they're interested in the job or not (for instance, Harris County Judge Robert Eckels has said he won't run, but he got some votes here). It also lists Democrats, like Nick Lampson. There are two elections in question here. One is a back-room deal where party folk from the four counties in the district will select someone to replace DeLay on the November ballot for a full two-year term in Congress. The other election — a special election to replace DeLay for the rest of his term — will be held, apparently, that same day. The ballot list for that one will include everyone from any party or persuasion who declares themselves a candidate.
Texas and other states can redraw their political maps when they want to, according to the U.S. Supreme Court, but they can't dilute the strength of minority voters just to protect an incumbent those voters oppose. The much anticipated decision on Texas congressional redistricting was generally a victory for Republicans who sought a partisan remix of the state's Washington delegation. But the court wants the mappers to revisit CD-23, where U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio, is the incumbent. They say the GOP redrew that district to protect Bonilla from Hispanic voters who were on the verge of replacing him. And the court said a Mexico-to-Austin district drawn to offset what was done in Bonilla's district also needs to go. That's now held by U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin. The justices said there's nothing to prevent a state from taking up redistricting in the middle of a decade, particularly when — as in Texas — the Legislature is replacing a map drawn by the courts with one of its own. And they didn't find fault with the lines in Dallas County, where Republicans drew Democratic U.S. Rep. Martin Frost out of a job. Democrats had argued that minority voters were illegally cheated of their voice in that district; the court disagreed. The court still hasn't settled on whether it's possible for political map to be so gerrymandered the courts have to step in and fix it. That remains an open question. What's next? The case comes back to the federal judges in Texas who decided it in the first place. They can redraw the map themselves or order lawmakers to do so. The immediate issue is whether they can get new lines in place before the November elections, or whether they'll proceed with these contests and put a new map in place later. It's probably too late in the year for the Legislature to come back, redraw the maps and get them in place in time for the November elections. That opens the possibility that redistricting will bedevil the next regular session of the Legislature, which starts in January. The court's full opinion is available in our Files section. Here's the current map:
The Texas Ethics Commission added a new whirligig to their campaign finance reporting website: A report of the cash on hand balances in all political accounts as of the latest reporting period.
We pulled it off, put it into our off-the-shelf number-mangler for reordering and popped out a list of the top accounts at the mid-year point. Some of this is known territory — your big-time gubernatorial candidates are here. But some of the entities that pop up on the list aren't among the usual suspects: The Association State PAC, for instance, or Texas Our Texas.
The list includes 1,865 political accounts holding a total combined balance of $96.6 million. Break it down: $39.2 million is in the top ten accounts; $57.9 million is in the top 50, and $67 million is in the top 100. Or do this: $96.6 million is about $4.22 for each child, woman, and man in the state. It took $1.1 million or better to get into the top 10. Half a million would rank you 23rd, and $250,000 would put you at number 54.
You can download a printer-friendly list of the top 100 by clicking here or by looking in the Files section of our website.
Democrat Chris Bell unveiled his first two television spots of the fall touting his positions on education, stem cell research and health insurance. That means all four of the major candidates for governor are on the air. In both of the new ads, Bell is standing in a law library talking to the camera while the words "Democrat Chris Bell for governor" appear at the bottom of the screen. He's the announcer for both spots.
"Change"
"I'm Chris Bell, and with a dropout rate near 40 percent, Texas schools need big changes. We need to prepare our students for greatness, not just for standardized tests. We need to recruit and keep the best teachers. And we need to make sure students pass a tough curriculum to get them ready for a lifetime of learning. Our kids should be leading the world, and they're not going to get there by filling in little ovals all day long. When I'm Governor, we'll have the best schools in the country."
"Heart"
"I'm Chris Bell, and we need big changes. That's why when I'm Governor, I'll lead a new Texas revolution. We can make Texas schools the best in the country if we teach our kids more than how to take standardized tests. We can cure disease by making Texas a leader in stem cell research. And we can keep our kids healthy if we stop cutting children's health insurance. Then the Texas that's in our hearts can become the Texas we see around us."
Bell's aides say the spots are running statewide, but only on cable television (not broadcast networks). The two spots are being rotated, and he filmed two more (not shown outside the campaign yet) that will be added to the mix later. They won't say what they spent or how frequently the ads are running, but do say they intend to have the candidate on TV from now until Election Day.
The State Board of Education's editorial power over textbooks is limited, according to Attorney General Greg Abbott.
The elected board can object to factual errors and make sure the books meet its physical specs. Board members can decide whether a book goes on the "conforming" or "non-conforming" list. They can make sure books "foster the continuation of the tradition of teaching United States and Texas history and the free enterprise system," as specified in the law. But they can't go outside those fence lines set in state law by the Legislature.
Abbott's letter opinion followed a letter from SBOE member Terri Leo, who openly hoped Abbott would give the board a more liberal set of guidelines than his predecessors. Among other things, she wanted Abbott to reconsider an earlier opinion issued by then-Attorney General Dan Morales that barred the SBOE from setting "general textbook content standards" as a condition for getting on the "conforming" list. In plain language, the board can require textbook publishers to include information needed to teach to state standards, but has much less power when it comes to telling publishers what to leave out.
She also wanted "ancillary materials" provided by textbook publishers included in what's reviewed by the SBOE. She went on to say in her request that the board is allowed to say what must be in a book, but not what's to be left out. Abbott wriggled out of that question, backing out of the earlier opinion without taking a new position. Think like a lawyer and not like a human to get this next bit: Whether materials are ancillary or part of a textbook has to be decided case by case. It "is not, therefore, amenable to the opinion process." Abbott's opinion offers no guidance on how those ought to be worked out, leaving it to battles at the SBOE and, possibly, in the courts. That's not a clear win for Leo, and it's not a clear win for folks who wanted ancillary materials kept out of the board's reach.
Leo, a Republican from Spring, called the opinion a "clear victory." Kathy Miller of the Texas Freedom Network also took it as a win. (Either Abbott got the politics exactly right, or somebody doesn't know what happened to them).
Leo said the ruling will keep lawyers at the Texas Education Agency from trying to remove requirements to teach history and the free enterprise system. She conceded the SBOE doesn't get any new authority from the current AG, but said Abbott agreed with her contention that Morales went too far on supplemental materials.
Miller said the first part of the opinion — which essentially agreed with Morales on the board's editorial control of textbooks — is a win for people who want the SBOE's powers limited. As for the ancillaries, she said the board is out of bounds when it pushes materials out of textbooks and into supplemental materials (she used "required information about responsible teen pregnancy and STD (sexually transmitted disease) prevention" as an example.
That's a potential battleground for the future. Abbott's opinion that what's in the extras depends on the circumstances leaves the area open for argument.The latest SurveyUSA poll — done for KEYE-TV in Austin and WOAI-TV in San Antonio — has Gov. Rick Perry at 35 percent, Democrat Chris Bell and independent Kinky Friedman tied at 23 percent, and Carole Keeton Strayhorn in the back at 15 percent. Libertarian James Werner got 2 percent. And only 2 percent of those polled said they haven't made up their minds how they'll vote.
It tracks other recent polls — some legit, others not so legit — that show the challengers splintering a majority of Texas voters that wants someone other than the incumbent in office. To seriously threaten Perry in November, one of the challengers will have to break out of the pack. And so far, nobody's done it.
The headline the pollsters put on this one: "Perry Going Nowhere at 35%, But That May Be Just Enough To Win Re-Election."
They last surveyed the race in June. Compared to that poll, Perry's holding, Bell is up 3 points, Friedman is up 2 points, and Strayhorn is down 4 points.
The polling started after four days of television commercials by Perry and Strayhorn, and with Friedman just going on television with a limited ad buy. Bell isn't on the air right now.
The cross tabs are scary no matter who you support. Perry has 56 percent of Republicans; a reasonably neurotic campaign worker would read that to say that 44 percent of the base isn't in the tent. Bell has 55 percent of Democrats; same reaction. Friedman's best numbers are with men, independents and young people.
Friedman was the second choice among Republican voters, with 23 percent, followed by Strayhorn at 14 percent. Among Democrats, she's the second choice, at 20 percent, and Friedman gets 16 percent. Independent voters like Friedman best, at 29 percent, followed by Perry at 21 percent and Bell at 18 percent. Strayhorn, a Republican running as an independent, gets only 9 percent from unaffiliated voters. If all the voters were under age 34, Freidman would lead, followed in order by Bell, Perry and Strayhorn. The men's vote would go Perry, Friedman, Bell, Strayhorn, and the women's vote would go Perry, Bell, Strayhorn, Friedman.
They did their polling by phone over the weekend (9/16-18) and talked to 1,000 Texas adults, including 863 were Registered Voters and 536 "likely" voters. They used that last group for their cross tabs. The margin of error: +/- 4.3 percent.
• One more thing: George W. Bush is above water in Texas, but only just. Half the voters approve of the job he's doing as president while 47 percent don't. Nationally, 39 percent approve and 59 percent don't. His Texas numbers have been more or less flat over the summer; last May, SurveyUSA said 56 percent of Texans disapproved of Bush's performance.
Just like the mainstream media they like to taunt, the Texas blogs were full of elegies and remembrances of former Gov. Ann Richards, killed by cancer last week. Attorney General Greg Abbott is getting some ink (phosphor?). There's a list of rules for lobsters that's worth an argument. A new poll. And a great new website for nosy people, if you know anybody like that.
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You can find video available online, including a gem of a promo for an Austin movie chain featuring the former governor and what happens to people who talk in movies. YouTube has a video of Richards amusing a group at the Texas Observer's 50th anniversary with tales of airport security and her body suit. And someone did a video obit, set to music.
Personal stuff's the best. Former state Rep. Glen Maxey, an Austin Democrat who worked on Richards' campaigns, remembered his former boss in a post at the Burnt Orange Report. Poke around on their site and you'll find more like it. In the Pink Texas has a couple of nice ones from one of Richards' former "wives" — what she used to call the young men who held her purse during speeches — and from a House aide who caught her off the clock.
And if you just can't get enough of this after almost a week of stories from the papers, TV, radio, and other media, go to this Google search or this Technorati search.
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Brains & Eggs is after Attorney General Greg Abbott, following a report from the Houston Chronicle/San Antonio Express-News Austin bureau about the AG's voter fraud efforts and after Abbott's legal opinion on the limits of textbook editing by the State Board of Education. That blogger doesn't like either deal (though opponents of the SBOE were semi-pleased with the textbook ruling). Houston's Off the Kuff is also on the case, boring in on the bit about voter fraud; they're riffing on a lawsuit filed against the AG and reported in the Houston Chronicle.
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A few months ago, former Capitol staffer Lawrence Collins posted some stuff on the Internet about the lobby. It got some reaction, and died out. He's not done. On In the Pink Texas, he's going after lobsters — sans names — for the bad things they do (earlier posts on the same general subject can be found on his personal blog). It's pretty entertaining, too, putting the lie to The Things Lobbyists Say to Make You Love and Respect Them and Their Fine Works. We made that last part up, but it fits in. Check it out.
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There's new polling in the governor's race from SurveyUSA that has Perry at 35, followed by Bell and Friedman, and in the back, Strayhorn (see Notebook for our story about it). And the commentary and spin is already underway, starting with Off the Kuff. You can follow his links on the subject for even more.
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The Texas Ethics Commission is taking hits in South Texas Chisme and other blogs for a draft opinion that says it's okay to report the gift of a check from an anonymous donor — not a political contribution, but a gift — as a "check" without reporting the amount. The Ethics folks say they're following the letter of the law. They're taking the shots, but they're providing a trail of crumbs back to the folks who can fix it: The Legislature.
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Finally, for your lazy-no-account-cubicle-occupying-busybody political friends, there's a new website that tracks the salaries of congressional staffers. Type in the names of your favorites and start gossiping. Public records can be fun.
Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn is sharpening her jabs at Gov. Rick Perry in a new round of television and radio spots that should be airing by the time you read this.
Perry has added a new spot on education to his mix, and Democrat Chris Bell, who hasn't yet run ads in this final run-up to the elections, will be on the air in a few days, apparently talking about education.
Strayhorn's two new ads are almost identical, with the changeable element being a mention (italicized in the second script below) of state-paid lobbyists in Washington, D.C. As with her earlier stuff, the new ads feature the comptroller standing in front of a white background and talking. The scripts:
Strayhorn: "I'd be embarrassed. Our public schools still can't count on funding, but our governor still has his $300 million corporate welfare slush fund. That's not Robin Hood — that's robbin' everybody, and it's wrong. Let's get rid of our governor's slush fund and ban all gifts from lobbyists. I want Austin to hear our voices. I'm Carole Keeton Strayhorn. This grandma wants to shake Austin up."
"Hear Our Voices DC Lobbyists"
Strayhorn: "I'd be embarrassed. Our public schools still can't count on funding, but our governor still has his $300 million corporate welfare slush fund. That's not Robin Hood — that's robbin' everybody, and it's wrong. Let's get rid of our governor's slush fund and ban all gifts from lobbyists and end the millions of dollars going to DC lobbyists. I want Austin to hear our voices. I'm Carole Keeton Strayhorn. This grandma wants to shake Austin up."
Perry's newest spot finds him boasting about school performance, teacher pay and higher state spending. As he speaks, he's seen walking through a school library full of students and greeting kids getting next to a school bus. Another shot shows a teacher working with students. And there are text graphics to reinforce points made in the script. If your eye wasn't on the television, you'd never know who's being promoted; Perry's name is never spoken. The governor is also the announcer for this script:
Perry: "Public school funding, student achievement, and standards are all up. I'm proud of Texas schools. Since I became governor, education funding has increased $9 billion. We passed a $2,000 teacher pay raise and the nation's largest merit-pay program. We've accomplished a lot, but we still can do more. That's why we're directing schools to spend at least 65 percent of their money on classroom instruction. Education is our future, and my highest priority."DumpPerry.com — the Internet domain at the end of the spot — is registered to PET PAC, also noted there. The address given is in Austin's Circle C Development at the residence of Sal Costello, an anti-toll road activist who also has an advertising firm that he apparently runs from home; it's got the same address and phone number. Two other web addresses — StopPerryLandGrab.com and TexasTollParty.com — jump to the same site.
PET PAC is registered with the state, and has paid Costello for work on various campaigns over the last few years. And they're linked financially to Strayhorn's campaign, which contributed $5,000 (though Friends of Carole Keeton Strayhorn PAC) to PETPAC in February of this year and another $5,000 in April. In one report, PETPAC listed Strayhorn as one of its supported candidates. In other reports, it's supported a number of Democrats and Republicans for various offices, often against incumbents in the Texas Legislature. That's a possible sore spot in the already testy relationship the comptroller has with some lawmakers.Rick Perry's campaign attacked Carole Keeton Strayhorn for getting secret advice on tax policy from an industry panel that includes some large donors to her campaigns. The tax policies adopted by the comptroller directly affect some of those panelists and/or their clients.
But the attack is a sort of political Mobius strip that ends where it started. The task force appointed by Perry to write the largest business tax bill in state history included some large donors to his campaign, it deliberated secretly, and it wrote a tax bill that had a direct impact on the businesses owned and/or operated by some of those panelists and/or their clients.
A cynic might point out that there are less than 50 days left between now and the election for governor. But that would miss an interesting story. The panels set up to advise executive officers in government — that's everybody who isn't in the legislative and judicial branches — aren't required to meet in public. In large measure, they don't have to report what they're working on or what they're doing. And the reason is that they don't make final decisions about what ought to happen.
The Tax Advisory Commission at the comptroller's office — set up before Strayhorn was in the big office on the first floor of that state office building — gives the comptroller a read on how different interpretations of a given tax law will translate into the real world. The panelists include a number of former comptroller employees who left for the private sector, where they now advise taxpayers on issues with the state's tax collectors. According to the Perry folk, the members of the panel have contributed $641,532 to Strayhorn's campaigns. The biggest single contributor is G. Brint Ryan, whose Ryan & Co. represents companies with cases at the comptroller's office. In their view, the combination of financial support from panelists and her tax rulings — potentially in favor of those supporters' interests — creates a conflict.
But Ryan's bet is hedged. His Austin partner — former Comptroller John Sharp — headed Perry's task force on tax reform, a panel formed late last year to recommend an overhaul of the state's business tax and to make it big enough to pay for cuts in local school property taxes. Perry named two dozen members to the panel, including a fair number who contribute to his campaigns and/or represent businesses that had much at stake in the tax bill.
Because they're advisory panels, the two committees aren't required to hold open meetings (the tax reform panel was disbanded when it finished writing the tax bill that was passed last spring by the Legislature). And both had members benefiting personally or professionally from the work they were doing. And both have members who support the elected official who appointed them. Strayhorn's camp says they amount to the same thing; if she's got a problem here, Perry does, too. Perry's folks say it's different, if only because Strayhorn has the power to make the final decision in tax cases. Perry got to sign the tax bill his panel wrote, but only after the Legislature had a shot at it.
There's one more thing: The relationships between the comptroller's decisions and her campaign contributions are the centerpiece of Perry's campaign against her. Strayhorn has said she'd repeal his tax bill, but that hasn't been the main thrust of her campaign to unseat him.
The state's task force on appraisal reform starts its public tour of the state this week with stops in Lubbock and Amarillo (Thursday and Friday). We got promos for both stops from the committee, the Guv's office, and the Republican Party of Texas.
Tyler and Lufkin are on the calendar for the first week of October. Harlingen and Corpus Christi are the stops on October 18-19. The panel will stop in El Paso and San Antonio at the end of the week that also includes Election Day. Dallas and Houston are set, tentatively, for November 15-16, and the task force will hold a final public hearing in Austin on November 21.
Like the tax panel before it, the appraisal bunch is under no legal obligation to meet publicly. The tax panel that worked out a property tax/business tax swap did its listening in public, and its deliberating and talking in private. This crew, headed by Dallas lawyer Tom Pauken, hopes to kick out a report in December for the Legislature's consideration in the regular session that starts in January.
A new poll of likely voters done for the Texas Credit Union League has everybody in the governor's race well below the 50 percent that would give them a majority.Gov. Rick Perry at the front of the pack, with 42 percent, followed by Democrat Chris Bell at 20 percent, independent Carole Keeton Strayhorn at 18 percent, independent Kinky Friedman at 12 percent, and Libertarian James Werner at 2 percent.
Perry's favorable/unfavorable numbers are 55 percent and 37 percent. Strayhorn's are 41 percent and 26 percent. Friedman's are 27 percent and 31 percent. Bell's are 23 percent and 16 percent. Werner's are 10 percent and 6 percent. Several of the candidates aren't winning the support of people who have a favorable impression of them. And Bell's pulling 23 percent of the vote even though 61 percent of the likely voters either weren't aware of him or didn't really have an impression. In both cases, that's potential ground for movement.
Two more bits before we move on. Perry is getting 71 percent of the support from self-identified Republicans. Bell's getting 44 percent from Democrats. Friedman is getting 6 percent of the Republicans and 14 percent of the Democrats; Strayhorn is getting 15 percent of the Republicans and 20 percent of the Democrats. Second, the pollsters asked people if they were definitely voting for a candidate or just leaning. If you just look at the definite voters, you get Perry at 27 percent, Bell at 12 percent, Friedman and Strayhorn both at 7 percent, and Werner at 1 percent.
Almost half, 47 percent, think the country is on the wrong track, while 42 percent think it's on the right track. George W. Bush's job approval is at 58 percent; 39 percent disapprove "somewhat" or "strongly." Ask them about the direction of their part of the state, and 50 percent of Texans think the direction's right compared to 42 percent who think the state's on the wrong track.
Congress gets a job approval rating of just 38 percent from Texans; 54 percent disapprove of the job done in the U.S. Capitol. More than half — 52 percent — think it's time to give someone new a change in Congress in their own districts. Usually, the federal elected class is hoping for that old formulation: Hate the group, love the local U.S. representative. But the masses are in a testy mood, apparently.
Contrast that with the numbers for the Texas Legislature: 49 percent think the statehouse is doing a good job, while 41 percent disapproves of the works wrought in the Pink Building. The locals are having a hard time there, too: 34 percent think their state legislators deserve another term, while 46 percent would like to give someone else a chance.
We've heard a bunch of Texas pollsters say the party base votes are high (this is usually in conversation about the prospects for independent gubernatorial candidates). And look: 47 percent of Texans say they'll vote for the Republican candidate for the statehouse and 37 percent say they'll vote for the Democrat. Only 11 percent said either than it depends on the candidate or that they preferred a third party choice.
Their top priorities? Add the results for their first and second choices and you get education (58%), controlling immigration and protecting the border (50%), providing affordable health care (35%), keeping taxes low (34%), and improving roads and controlling traffic (12%).
The pollsters talked to 800 Texans over a two-week period, from September 5-18. They used two Washington, D.C.-based pollsters (one from the GOP and one from the Democrats): Voter/Consumer Research, and Hamilton Beattie & Staff.
Sen. Eliot Shapleigh, D-El Paso, said during a debate that he's been assured he'll get a spot on the Senate Finance Committee, but the top aide to the lieutenant governor says there's no deal in the works.
Republican Dee Margo made a remark about Shapleigh being removed from the budget-writing panel to illustrate what he calls El Paso's lack of clout in the Senate. Shapleigh responded with a line that triggered a burst of applause from the audience at that candidate forum: "I spoke with David Dewhurst, several times, and in November, he’s putting me back on the Finance Committee." We followed up with a phone call, and the Lite Guv's chief of staff, Bruce Gibson, says it ain't so: "We haven't promised anyone anything."
Even if there had been a promise, Shapleigh might have ruined it by saying the words out loud. He hasn't won reelection yet. Neither has Dewhurst.
There is an open spot on the committee, left there when San Antonio Democrat Frank Madla resigned from the Senate earlier this summer. Dewhurst has so far chosen not to fill the post, though the committee is working on interim reports and preliminary budgeting for next year. If he sticks to custom, Dewhurst won't name his new committees (assuming he's reelected) until after the legislative session starts in January. Shapleigh, put on the committee and later reassigned by Dewhurst, might be able to get his seat back. But Gibson says it's no sure thing.
Asked about it later, Shapleigh said, "With all due respect, Mr. Gibson was not in the room." Asked if he thought Dewhurst would give a different response than Gibson, he said, "I know what I heard."
The Texas Parent PAC got busy this week, dealing endorsements to candidates they consider pro-education. That's a bipartisan group, but this week's list of candidates doesn't include any Republicans.
Their list includes Democrat Joe Farias, who's running for an open seat in HD-118 in San Antonio. He's a former school board member and his opponent, George Antuna, R-San Antonio, favors limited publicly funded vouchers for private school tuition.
In Austin, the group endorsed Democrat Valinda Bolton over Republican Bill Welch in HD-47. They cited vouchers in that race, too, saying Bolton's the only candidate who's come out against them.
In Dallas' HD-107, the group will support Democrat Allen Vaught, who's challenging Rep. Bill Keffer, R-Dallas. He's a lawyer and a veteran of the Iraqi war.
And they picked another Democrat, Kristi Thibaut, in HD-133, the House seat opened when Rep. Joe Nixon, R-Houston, ran for state Senate. She'll face Republican Jim Murphy in November.
Bob Perry's two checks to Bill Ceverha have floated back into the news, this time in the form of a draft opinion under consideration by the Texas Ethics Commission.
Perry, a Houston homebuilder and heavy contributor to (mostly) Republican causes and candidates, gave Ceverha, a member of the board at the Employee Retirement System, two $50,000 checks. Ceverha is a political consultant and the checks were gifts. Because he's also on the ERS board (an unpaid position), he had to report the gifts. So he reported that he had received two checks, without disclosing the amounts (he and Perry voluntarily disclosed the amounts after an uproar from Democrats was reported in the media).
The Ethics Commission says the disclosure was properly handled, that state law doesn't require the recipient of a gift to disclose its value. Ceverha had to report the gifts, and had to say they were checks. That, according to TEC, met the legal requirements. As long as the check itself is reported, it doesn't make any difference whether it was for $251 or $251,000.
They're getting a lot of blow-back from Democrats who've been pushing for more disclosure. But in the draft of their opinion, they've settled on the blank check approach. If they adopt the draft, that'll be their official position. But that's not the end of it: The commission might ask the Legislature to consider the issue in January, to make the law explicit.
Rep. Elliott Naishtat, D-Austin, has already jumped in to say he'll sponsor legislation requiring the amount of a check to be included in its description on ethics disclosure reports.Sen. Eliot Shapleigh, D-El Paso, said during a debate that he's been assured he'll get a spot on the Senate Finance Committee, but the lieutenant governor says he won't make committee decisions until the end of the year.
Republican Dee Margo made a remark about Shapleigh being removed from the budget-writing panel to illustrate what he calls El Paso's lack of clout in the Senate. Shapleigh responded with a line that triggered a burst of applause from the audience at that candidate forum: "I spoke with David Dewhurst, several times, and in November, he’s putting me back on the Finance Committee." We followed up with a phone call, and got this quote, attributed to Dewhurst, from one of his aides: "I've been talking to almost all of the senators about committee apppointments. I won't make any decisions until the end of the year."
Even if there had been a promise, Shapleigh might have ruined it by saying the words out loud. He hasn't won reelection yet. Neither has Dewhurst.
There is an open spot on the committee, left there when San Antonio Democrat Frank Madla resigned from the Senate earlier this summer. Dewhurst has so far chosen not to fill the post, though the committee is working on interim reports and preliminary budgeting for next year. If he sticks to custom, Dewhurst won't name his new committees (assuming he's reelected) until after the legislative session starts in January. Shapleigh, put on the committee and later reassigned by Dewhurst, might be able to get his seat back. But it's no sure thing.
Shapleigh, clearly unhappy that the story traveled from El Paso to Austin, stuck to his version. "I know what I heard," he said.
Endorsements are out from Texans for Lawsuit Reform — an outfit that's been known to weigh into campaigns with Real American Money.
That group is pulling for the status quo in all but one state Senate race; they're for Republican Dee Margo, who's challenging Eliot Shapleigh, D-El Paso, in SD-29.
In the House, they're mostly endorsing incumbents in races where they're endorsing anyone at all. The sole exception is in HD-12, where they like Republican Jody Anderson over Rep. Jim McReynolds, D-Lufkin.
They endorsed in eight open seat races, picking the Republican every time (they endorse Democrats, too, but not in this year's open seats). That's a list of candidates that includes Brandon Creighton, R-Conroe, in HD-16; John Zerwas, R-Richmond, in HD-28; Bill Welch, R-Austin, in HD-47; Jim Landtroop, R-Plainview, in HD-85; Thomas Latham, R-Sunnyvale, in HD-101; George Antuna, R-San Antonio, in HD-118, Patricia Harless, R-Spring, in HD-126; and Jim Murphy, R-Houston, in HD-133.
Goo-goo groups, new books, polls, debates, fundraisers, and endorsements (intentional and not).
• A gang of good government groups is pushing a list of ethics reforms they hope the next Legislature will pass. Common Cause Texas, the League of Women Voters, the Gray Panthers of Texas, Public Citizen Texas, the Texas Baptist Christian Life Commission, and Texans for Public Justice want the state to put a $100,000 aggregate limit on individual contributions, to close the revolving door between the Lege and the lobby, to replace judicial elections with appointment and retention elections, to record all but the ceremonial legislative votes, and to create an independent redistricting commission. They've got sponsors lined up for all but one of those ideas: The revolving door limits.
• Watch for "Vice: Dick Cheney and the Hijacking of the American Presidency," another book on the folks in Washington, D.C., written by political reporters here in Texas. Lou Dubose and Jake Bernstein, the former and current editor, respectively, of the Texas Observer in Austin contend that Cheney is the dominant partner in George W. Bush's White House. It's out in mid-October, but on the pre-order list now. Dubose has written books on Bush and on former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. This is Bernstein's first book.
• We've mentioned "Applebee's America" here before; we're mentioning it again because it's now in the bookstores. Austin political consultant Matthew Dowd, who came up in the Democratic ranks and now works for Republicans (Bush and now Arnold Schwarzenegger) co-wrote it with former Associated Press reporter Ron Fournier and Douglas Sosnik, who worked for President Bill Clinton. They use political campaigns, the restaurant chain in the title and megachurches to talk about what unites and divides Americans.
• U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, is touting his pollster's finding that he's leading his race for reelection. It's all good news for him (or why would he announce it?): He's got an 8-to-1 positive rating from likely voters and his opponents are not well known. He's at 65 percent, with undecided in second place at 21 percent, Democrat Frank Enriquez at 9 percent, and Ron Avery of the Constitution Party at 5 percent.
• Rep. Martha Wong, R-Houston, will debate Democrat Ellen Cohen and Libertarian Mhair Dekmezian at Rice University October 12. The organizers say Dekmezian, a student, was invited at Wong's insistence. That's getting interesting. Wong is running spots touting her support for the Children's Health Insurance Program (among other things), and Cohen's shooting back, saying Wong voted to cut the things she's bragging she supports. Both sides say that'll be a close race.
• Singer-songwriter Robert Earl Keen will do three fundraisers for the Texas Democratic Party, one each in Austin, Dallas, and Houston. All are acoustic sets. All will be held in private homes. Tickets range from $1,000 to $5,000.
• The Sierra Club endorsed Democrat Chris Bell in the governor's race, saying he's "made protection of the environment a high priority issue in his campaign."
• Texas Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs, a Republican, endorsed statehouse candidate Michael Esparza, R-Alice, who's challenging Rep. Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles, D-Alice, in HD-35.
• The Texas Association of Business fired off an endorsement letter to Rep. Jim McReynolds, D-Lufkin, after telling him, his opponent, and everyone else they'd be endorsing Republican Jody Anderson in the HD-12 contest. TAB President Bill Hammond said the letter was a simple mistake — TAB's political action committee (called BACPAC) is sticking with Anderson.