Ann Richards went to her grave without making a public endorsement in the Texas governor's race.But that didn't stop her friend Liz Smith from saying the staunch Democrat would have backed Kinky Friedman.

And it didn't stop Friedman's campaign from leaping at the news and sending out a press release to make sure everyone knew about it.

That left Richards' family and former aides and supporters to walk the story back, which they did in about 12 hours time. They got Smith to say she'd only meant to compare Richards' and Friedman's common tendency to say odd and funny things to bring attention to ideas. She apologized for irritating the family. And any number of family and friends said Richards would have endorsed Democrat Chris Bell in the race because she always, always, always backed Democrats.

Smith, a close friend of the late governor, spoke at Richards' funeral. But in an interview with the San Antonio Express-News, she backed out of what she wrote about Richards' political preferences: "I was jumping to an assumption, because we had talked a lot about Kinky and weird candidacies and offbeat candidacies, and things are so pathetic in Texas, I jumped to a conclusion that I shouldn't have printed."

If you're inclined to pore over cross-tabs from a poll, add this to the Texas Credit Union League poll we reported last week. They have tabs for voters who identify themselves as "definite" voters. The theory is that they'll turn up no matter what. The differences are small, but if you're into this stuff, you're into this stuff. In our Files section (no password required).

With a little more than a month to go, the Democrats and Republicans have their eyes on a dozen and a half House races with hopes, on each side, of picking up two or three seats, and fears, on both sides, of losing as many.Here's the list of the moment, with notes. Click here to get a printable version of the list.

 

 

Pollsters are the palm readers and crystal ball gazers of politics, and in a business notable for short attention spans and an intense desire for instant gratification, they're popular right now. Save the catcalls for November 7. Some polls are murkier than others, but that doesn't keep bloggers — and the mainstream media — from reporting on them, analyzing them, and trying to conjure up a vision of a winner.

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Numerology

Citing polls, Eye on Williamson County urges Trans-Texas Corridor opponents who've been supporting Independent candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn (aka "Grandma") to switch their votes to Democratic candidate Chris Bell. They say, "... it's time to accept reality and realize that just like during the great depression, and in the time before the Republicans took over this state, only the Democratic Party can save your family farm."

He's a newcomer to blogging, but that doesn't keep Texas Monthly political editor Paul Burka from regularly sharing the scoop he's able to dig up. On BurkaBlog, Burka says a new poll (the source of which he cannot name) puts Republican Gov. Rick Perry at 42%, with everyone else in the teens (except for Undecided who pulls in 20%). He goes on to critique and grade the latest round of television ads in the governor's race. It looks like no one will make the A-B Honor Roll.

Houtopia on the recent Survey USA poll: "The only chance to beat Perry at this point is if Grandma beats him to a pulp over the next six weeks, while Perry's opposition coalesces around Bell. For that to happen, Bell must be on TV — statewide — for the last month running positive ads, an expensive and unlikely proposition. Stranger things have happened."

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Kinky Stirs the Pot

The other Independent candidate for governor, Richard "Kinky" Friedman, continues to get blog (and msm) coverage for an old "comedy" routine that included racist remarks and for his proposal to legalize marijuana.

The Pine Blog said, "Personally, I don't see how I can vote for the man without being drunk — and, I haven't been drunk since I was a toddler (long, sad story). But, the problem is that the alternatives aren't that exciting either. While I have no idea how to solve our drug problem in the state/country, I have a hard time believing that legalizing pot will do the trick."

WilcoWise said Texas Democrats should not get their hopes up that Kinky's bad press will positively impact the Bell campaign. "Nothing Kinky said 20+ years ago is going to help Chris Bell hobble into that dinky, yet over-decorated, mansion on Colorado Street. Not even if Kinky puts on one of those Cedar Park thongs and dances the macarena with Leslie on the steps of the Capitol."

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Cheap — but Effective?

Texas candidates are paying attention to Internet media. Their ads can be found all over the web, even on blogs that have been unfriendly to certain candidates.

Evan at Rick Perry vs. The World was puzzled by Strayhorn's advertisement on Red State. He said, "Most of the folks at Red State have probably made up their mind, most of 'em for Perry. Red State doesn't exactly seem to be the place she'd be advertising, but then, I haven't exactly figured out her advertising strategy. And that, I think is the problem: she's all over the place."

As for her ads on Pink Dome, the writer of that blog said he doesn't discriminate against any candidate. "They pay real American dollars to advertise on PinkDome. Until you guys start sending me wads of cash I get paid wherever I can."

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On the Campaign Trail

Pink Dome has photos of campaign signs for Rep. Martha Wong, R-Houston, before and after a makeover.

Burnt Orange Report is calling rent payments from Rep. Gene Seaman, R-Corpus Christi, to his wife with campaign funds "CondoGate." Contributor M. Eddie Rodriguez suggests readers not follow Rep. Seaman's example: "... if you (sic) doing something illegal or crooked, own up to it and don't throw your wife under the bus. It makes you look like a coward and crappy husband." That story broke in Texas Weekly, but it's gained traction with Corpus Christi media and remains in the conversation a couple of weeks later.

Musings, a Sugar Land-based blog, is concentrating heavily on Rep. John Davis, R-Houston, his campaign expenditure reports, and a complaint filed against him with the Texas Ethics Commission.

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It's Not Too Soon

This election isn't even over and people are starting to speculate about who will run for what in 2010, the next time the statewide offices will be on the ballot. Houston senator-apparent Dan Patrick is rumored to be sending out a mailer next week to people across the state. Evan at Rick Perry vs. The World said, "I'd say the smart money is on Patrick running statewide in '10. The question is whether he decides to try and take on Dewhurst or Kay Bailey for governor, or whether he runs for a lower statewide office. Imagine how much fun a Dan Patrick/David Dewhurst/Kay Bailey Hutchison primary would be." And Patrick hasn't even taken his first oath of office. Or won a general election.

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Why Haven't They Thought of Air Fresheners?

Vince Leibowitz at Capitol Annex riffed on a story in the Waco Tribune-Herald where Sen. Kip Averitt, R-McGregor, stated his support of four new coal-burning power plants in his district. wrote Leibowitz: "Averitt, evidently counting on the power plants to spew Fabreeze instead of filthy smoke, says air quality in the region will actually improve even with the coal plants in place."

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Robyn Hadley cherry-picks the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. Robyn, a veteran of both journalism and the state Capitol, is the owner of Capitol Crowd, a networking site for people who work in and around state government. The opinions she quotes belong to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Robyn at robyn@capitolcrowd.com, or to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey, at ramsey@texasweekly.com.

Residency, sunsets, checks, and headlines becoming policy...

Cindy Werner, the Republican running against Rep. Yvonne Davis, D-DeSoto, says Davis doesn't live in the legislative district and ought to be tossed from office. Davis fired back with both barrels, saying she does too live in the district, and towel-snapping her opponent for a record that, according to Davis, includes runs for office every two years since 1996. She says Werner, who now lives in Duncanville, has run as a Democrat, an independent, and a Republican, and from addresses in Houston, Arlington, Dallas, Carrollton, and now Duncanville. Werner says she's asked Dallas County's district attorney and the county elections department to look into her allegations about Davis. She says the incumbent lives in DeSoto, but at an address outside the district.

• The state's Office of Rural Community Affairs, created less than ten years ago, should be folded into the Texas Department of Agriculture, according to the staff of the state's Sunset Commission. They recommend abolishing that agency and letting the Ag department run its block grant and other programs.

• Follow-up: The Texas Ethics Commission punted, delaying until December a decision on whether the law requires officeholders who receive checks as gifts to report the amounts in addition to the fact that they got checks. Their draft opinion says the law doesn't require the amount to be disclosed.

• From the headlines to you: Congressional candidate Lukin Gilliland called on the federal government to reimburse Texas spinach growers for the money lost because of a short spinach ban that followed an e. coli outbreak from California spinach. And Texas House candidate Larry Durrett chased a Freeport headline about the Mexican pledge of allegiance being recited on 16 September by grade-schoolers learning about that Mexican national holiday. He wants to prohibit public school officials from "promoting or requiring" the recital of any pledge of allegiance other than the one to the U.S. flag.

TPJ throws campaign finance numbers into its report processor....

You've seen some of the gubernatorial finance stuff in other forms, but Texans for Public Justice put it all in a blender for a new report called "Keeping Texas Weird: The Bankrolling of the 2006 Gubernatorial Race." They rolled together all the campaign reports filed by the candidates since January 2003 (when Rick Perry's term began) through the mid-year reports filed this summer. The four candidates had raised $42.5 million altogether. Perry raised $24.3 million. Carole Keeton Strayhorn raised $12.7 million. Kinky Friedman raised $3.4 million. And Chris Bell raised $2.1 million. James Werner raised $1,400.

Some numbers really stick out. Friedman raised 21 percent of his money from people who gave less than $50. More than half came in amounts under $1,000. Nobody else was even close. Perry got 47 percent of his money in chunks of $25,000 or more. Strayhorn got 45 percent of her money that way. Out of state funding is light, especially after a run of national figures like George W. Bush and Ann Richards in state politics. Only $1.5 million of the total raised by the candidates came from the other side of the state's boundaries. Most — $1.2 million — went to Perry.

The candidates for governor are filling in the blanks on their policy pages, an interesting phenomena that gives them something to talk about without interfering with the central bits in their campaigns — the stuff you've been seeing from the beginning.

It's not easy to come up with examples of politicians turning an election in the last five weeks by bringing up a new policy issue. It's possible, theoretically, but the new stuff that turns elections at the end is almost always negative.

But it can be a liability for a candidate to get caught without something to say about all the issues that come up. And they can always rely on a trusty line: "We put out the policy papers, but the press didn't cover them."

It has the advantage of being true. But reporters do file this stuff away for use later, like during a legislative session when these things come up.

We're in a parade of policy proposals from all fronts. Kinky Friedman, who's been taking out innocent bystanders with a string of politically incorrect lines lately, started his recent uninhibited quotation spree while on a tour to announce some policy ideas. Among other things, he wants to get a lid on state spending while also increasing pay for teachers and multiplying the number of National Guard troops on the Texas-Mexico border by a factor of more than six. He didn't say where he'd get the money to pay for those ideas.

Gov. Rick Perry, a former member of the House Appropriations Committee and a chief executive who once presented a budget with zeroes where the numbers usually go, proposed a list of finance reforms that includes a "real spending limit" in the budget, "transparency" that allows voters to see how his and other agencies are spending money, constitutional permission to return unspent money to taxpayers, a requirement that dedicated funds be used as intended, and he wants to crack open a budget trick that prevents governors from vetoing line items within agency budgets. Opponents swiped at that, saying he could do much of what he's proposed by just telling the agencies in his branch of government to get going. And they noted the calendar and the timing of the proposal five weeks before Election Day.

Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn wants to double the number of Texas Rangers and use them to beef up the state's border security. Perry's folks say most of her plan is already in place.

Former congressman Chris Bell wants the state to ensure the availability of contraceptives to victims of sexual assault. And he wants the state to add a vaccine against cervical cancer to the list of required vaccinations for pre-teenaged girls. He noted in the announcement that some people oppose the vaccine for fear it encourages girls to become sexually active. Perry, for instance, is for it, but only if parents can opt out. Bell's position prompted Cathie Adams, head of the Texas Eagle Forum, to fire off an email with the subject line "Chris Bell disqualifies himself for TX governor." Bell's campaign manager, Jason Stanford, shot back: "Cathie Adams wants women to die of cervical cancer so she can score political points. I'd tell her go to Hell, but she's apparently on her way there already."

Start this look at Texas House races with the usual caveats: Partisans — the people who tell us about this stuff — are always wrong about some of the races on their "hot" lists. Some won't pan out. Some might pan out when nobody's looking. It's a head vs. heart thing.

The field of active races is relatively small, and you'll not find anyone sane or sober who predicts a shift of more than two or three seats from one party's column to the other.

Republicans seem more skittish at the moment, but that makes sense with the national mood and with the simple fact that defense is always more nerve-wracking than offense. The GOP holds more ground in Texas right now, and have more to lose.

A big question we can't answer, yet: Will a governor's race with two prominent independents jangle the numbers on straight-party voting? It's part of the challenger strategy in a handful of districts.

If you forced us to score the races on the list that follows (we included 18 that were mentioned one way or another by consultants, candidates, and others we've talked with), we'd put it like this. The Democrats seem most confident about their challenges to Reps. Martha Wong, Gene Seaman, Toby Goodman, and Tony Goolsby. The Republicans' favorite targets at the moment include Reps. Robby Cook, Jim McReynolds, Hubert Vo and the spot left open when former House Speaker Pete Laney decided not to run again. That's not a full list; the full list follows.

Some notes about that. We included the 2004 result from each district because we like to keep it handy and thought you might, too. The Bush/Cheney column shows the percentage of the vote the Republicans got in each House district listed. The GOP presidential ticket won in every won of these districts and generally outperformed other statewide Republicans. It tends to be an high water mark if you're wearing a red jersey and a low water mark if you're in blue. Not one winner on this list — if they were in a contested race — outdid the presidential ticket two years ago. Republicans say that's because Bush is so popular, and Democrats agree. The Democrats say marginal Republicans are in trouble without Bush on the ticket. That remains to be seen. Here's the list:

 

 

Political ads from Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Rick Perry. Strayhorn's new commercial —

— and the early summer Perry commercial to which she's referring.