Like the state Senate District 11 contest between Mike Jackson and Joe Jaworski, the SD-10 race pits a potentially well-funded Democratic challenger, fresh out of city council, against a potentially better-funded Republican incumbent.
Like Jaworski, Democrat Wendy Davis is putting her money on purplish demographics in the district and constituents fed up with an out-of-touch officeholder. Republican Kim Brimer, like Jackson, remains confident in the continued redness of his region and a voting record his consultant says speaks for itself.
SD-10 encompasses the majority of Fort Worth and much of the suburban area wrapping around the city from the southwest to the northeast.
Tarrant County native Davis is a graduate of Texas Christian University and Harvard Law School. Davis is CEO of a title company. She wants to take her hands-on style of municipal governance — honed by more than eight years on the Fort Worth City Council — to the state political arena. Her campaign will focus on public education, healthcare costs, transportation issues, and utility rates, she says.
Brimer has been working in Austin since 1988, serving 14 years in the House before being elected to the Senate in 2002. He's the chair of the Sunset Advisory Commission and the Senate Administration Committee and sits on a handful of other committees. "It's arguable that not any other single legislator had more impact on economic development legislation in Texas than Kim Brimer," consultant Bryan Eppstein says.
In addition to economic development, Brimer's campaign will highlight his efforts to increase funding for highways and roads, his tough-on-crime stance and his work to "preserve constitutional rights and individual freedoms," says Eppstein.
In contrast, Davis, according to Eppstein, "likes to trample on constitutional rights" of property owners, gun owners and crime victims. "This is a population that doesn't take very kindly to that," he says.
Brimer, says Davis, suffers from "ethical lapses."
"What I hear repeatedly from people is, they don't know him," she says. "He's not working with them. What they feel is a sense of disenfranchisement between themselves and that representative."
To make that point, Davis points to the results of a poll by the Lone Star Project, which calls itself a "non-ideological" group dedicated to thwarting "the rhetoric and misinformation typically provided by the current Republican State Leadership in Texas and Texas Republicans in Washington." LSP is a spin-off of the Lone Star Fund, started by Matt Angle, a Democratic congressional staffer and political advisor to former U.S. Rep. Martin Frost, D-Dallas. Most of its targets have been Republicans.
The poll, conducted by Opinion Analysts in May, showed that about 18 percent of likely SD-10 voters gave Brimer a favorable rating, 7 percent were unfavorable, and 25 percent were neutral. The rest didn't know him.
"After 19 years in Austin, half the voters knew so little about him they couldn't rate him," Davis said. "Those that did know him didn't think very favorably of him."
"That's just hogwash. People know who Kim Brimer is, and they have a strong opinion of him," Eppstein says. "Outside of [Davis's] city council district, people don't know who she is."
Eppstein says the Brimer campaign's polling paints a different picture from the Lone Star Project's. "How do you know they didn't make the numbers up? It looks like they made the numbers up to me," he says.
Jeff Smith, president and owner of Opinion Analysts, assures that they did indeed conduct a survey: "Yes, we ran the poll, and they were likely general election voters."
"I've never been accused of making up the numbers, or not even running the poll," says Smith. "Yeah, it was a real poll."
Davis says her city council district comprises about 60 percent Democrats and 40 percent Republicans. Citing a 2006 race for district attorney, she says SD-10 is "trending much more toward a 50/50 split."
Eppstein predicts that if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for President (which Eppstein thinks she will be), Clinton will lose SD-10 "by more than 20 points," and that Davis's open support for Clinton will hurt Davis within the district.
Tarrant County Democratic Party Chair Art Brender isn't convinced that the Presidential candidates will lend an advantage to either party. "They want to take Clinton? I'll take Giuliani," he says.
On the flip side, Brender doesn't think that Clinton's gender will boost the numbers of fellow female Davis. The sort of people who make their minds up to vote for someone on the basis of one factor, such as gender, normally don't take the time to learn much of anything about the candidates, he says: "So I don't know if Davis has an advantage running against a 'Kim Brimer.'"
Eppstein believes Davis would have trouble in a general election because of her opposition to the collective bargaining rights of Fort Worth firefighters and police officers.
And he's not so sure that Davis will even make it out of the Democratic Primary, though she doesn't have a declared opponent.
Brender briefly considered running for the Senate spot, and he says his opposition to Davis isn't based on personal differences, but is "issue-based." Brender, too, thinks that Davis's opposition to collective bargaining could come back to haunt her, either in the general election or primary.
And he echoes Eppstein about potential Democratic candidates: "People have inquired, but they do not want to announce that they are inquiring."
Brender is concerned that Davis voted in the 2006 GOP primary and in April donated $500 to U.S. Rep. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth. According to the Federal Election Commission's website, Davis has given $1,500 total to Granger since 2004, $250 to George W. Bush in 1999, $500 to former Democratic U.S. Rep. Martin Frost in 2004 and $1,000 to Clinton in 2007. (The same database shows that Brimer gave $500 to the Tarrant County Republican Victory Fund in 2004.)
"I don't know when she turned around and decided to run as a Democrat for state Senate," he says.
For her part, Davis says the idea began incubating during this past legislative session, and hatched after several prominent Democrats in the community talked to her about running.
"I think I bring something to the table that is fairly unique for a Democratic candidate," she says. "I'm very much a moderate Democrat. I have a very strong history of working with the business community."
Financially, Brimer has a big head start on his challenger, reporting nearly $1 million in the bank in July. However, Davis says she "will not be outworked on the campaign trail," and plans to raise $2 million during the campaign.
"Senate campaigns generally cost upwards of $1 million or $2 or more million," says Eppstein. "We are anticipating that type of campaign."
by Patrick Brendel