The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst recently completed a run of TV ads on Voter ID and immigration, geared to dovetail with non-binding GOP ballot questions on those issues. The Lite Guv's not on the ballot, but wanted to "talk to voters while they were paying attention." Dewhurst does all of the talking in the ad, which starts with pictures of soldiers saluting at a cemetery, a shot of Dewhurst, pictures from polling places, of a driver's license with a fingerprint on it and then a final shot of Dewhurst's bumper-sticker logo, which says "David Dewhurst Lieutenant Governor." "Americans have given their lives to protect our right to vote. That's why it's so critical only American citizens are allowed to vote. I'm David Dewhurst. We need to implement existing federal law and issue a tamper-proof driver's license or photo I.D. so we know who's here. And make sure that only U.S. citizens vote. Join me in protecting this basic American freedom. Our right to vote." The text on the screen changes during the ad, starting with Dewhurst's name, and in time with the script, "Only American Citizens Vote", his name again, "Tamper-Proof Photo I.D.", then his web address — www.dewhurst.org— and finally a disclaimer.



In the second, an announcer starts things off: "Washington refuses to stop illegal immigration. So Texas added additional law enforcement, and surveillance technology. Texas is doing its part. Washington needs to do theirs." Then Dewhurst speaks: "Like you, I'm angry at Washington for failing to secure our borders while dangerous drug traffic and illegal immigration and gang activity are increasing. I'm David Dewhurst. We need to secure our borders and we need strong federal law enforcement to do it now." The ad starts with pictures of the Rio Grande, of footage from helicopters, and a shot of the U.S. Capitol. Dewhurst comes on screen as he begins speaking, and the camera cuts away to graphics while he talks. The text on screen during the ad includes "26% increase in state law enforcement", "Plus over $100 million: helicopters, crime labs, overtime for border sheriff's deputies." Dewhurst's name comes up with his mug, as does his web address. The next graphics are headlines from ABC News and the Houston Chronicle: "Gang Crackdown on Illegal Immigrants", and "Six Illegal Immigrants Receive Prison for Smuggling Scheme." As Dewhurst says the words, the text "Secure Borders" and "Strong Enforcement" appears. The spot ends like the other one, with the bumper sticker logo and a disclaimer.



A media buyer we know found footprints of recent "buys" of TV time in smaller markets around the state, but a spokesman for Dewhurst says the ads have stopped running. The commercials didn't stop on Election Day, but did go off the air just a few days ago. That's verified, somewhat, by the dates on the ads' intros (the part that doesn't go on TV): The first was cut in February; the second, two days after the Texas primaries.

It's all but over for major-party candidates who'll face only minor-party opposition in November, a group that includes a statewide judge, seven members of Congress, six state senators, and 46 House members and members-probably-to-be. Broken down by party, this bunch includes 21 Democrats and 36 Republicans.

The Republicans include Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Judge Cathy Cochran, Austin; U.S. Reps. Mike Conaway, Midland; Jeb Hensarling, Dallas; Ron Paul, Lake Jackson; Ted Poe, Humble; and Lamar Smith, San Antonio; state Sens. Robert Duncan, Lubbock; Troy Fraser, Horseshoe Bay; and Kel Seliger, Amarillo; and Reps. Charles "Doc" Anderson, Waco; Jimmie Don Aycock, Killeen; Leo Berman, Tyler; Dennis Bonnen, Angleton; Fred Brown, College Station; Bill Callegari, Katy; Brandon Creighton, Conroe; Drew Darby, San Angelo; Rob Eissler, The Woodlands; Allen Fletcher, Tomball; Dan Flynn, Van; Rick Hardcastle, Vernon; Will Hartnett, Dallas; Harvey Hilderbran, Kerrville; Jim Jackson, Carrollton; Delwin Jones, Lubbock; Susan King, Abilene; Edmund Kuempel, Seguin; Tryon Lewis, Odessa; Jerry Madden, Richardson; Brian McCall, Plano; Tommy Merritt, Longview; Diane Patrick, Arlington; Ken Paxton, McKinney; Jim Pitts, Waxahachie; Burt Solomons, Carrollton; Joe Straus, San Antonio; David Swinford, Dumas; Larry Taylor, Galveston; and Beverly Woolley, Houston.

The Democrats: U.S. Reps. Al Green, Houston; and Silvestre Reyes, El Paso; state Sens. Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa, McAllen; Leticia Van de Putte, San Antonio; and Royce West, Dallas; and Reps. Rafael Anchia, Dallas; Garnet Coleman, Houston; Joe Deshotel, Beaumont; Dawnna Dukes, Austin; Jim Dunnam, Waco; Craig Eiland, Galveston; David Farabee, Wichita Falls; Trey Martinez Fischer, San Antonio; Helen Giddings, Dallas; Scott Hochberg, Houston; Terri Hodge, Dallas; Marisa Marquez, El Paso; Richard Raymond, Laredo; Eddie Rodriguez, Austin; Marc Veasey, Fort Worth; and Tara Rios Ybarra, South Padre Island.

Utility regulators are considering a deal that would cut $144 million from a subsidy paid to phone companies that provide service in high-cost areas.

That's less than the $263 million in cuts proposed by the staff of the state's Public Utility Commission, but all of the companies involved in the fight have signed off on it (we wrote about the tentative deal last month). The PUC will get a chance to ratify it in a couple of weeks.

The so-called Universal Service Fund is filled with a 4.4 percent tax on all phone bills. The money goes to four companies that provide service in areas that were labeled "high-cost" when the fund was created in the mid-1990s. Right now, it's a $394.9 million per year deal. The new agreement would whittle that over four year's time. The four companies — AT&T, Verizon, Embarq, and Windstream — asked for $755 million annually. The PUC staff recommended a total of $132 million per year. This settlement puts the total at $236.5 million — somewhere between the current amount and the staff proposal. Verizon's subsidy would be cut to $69 million from $97 million. AT&T would be cut to $44 million from $160 million. Embarq and Windstream would get $37.5 million and $86 million, respectively, as against $44 million and $94 million now.

The agreement doesn't specify when or by how much that 4.4 percent charge on phone bills should drop, simply saying that it should.

About half the state's races are already decided or all but decided, but 109 are still in play: seven at the statewide level, 24 in the congressional delegation, six in the state Senate, and 72 in the Texas House. In that number, Republicans now hold the seven statewide spots, 13 of the contested congressional seats, four contested Senate seats, and 32 of the contested House seats. The Democrats: 11 in Congress, two in the Senate, and 30 in the House. That leaves ten open seats in the House that have major party candidates on both sides of the ledger in November; eight are/were held by Republicans and two by Democrats. Here's the cheat sheet.

The U.S. Supreme Court, ruling in a Kentucky case, allows Texas and other states to continue the use of lethal injections in executions.The opinion is available online from the Supreme Court.

Gov. Rick Perry, in an interview with The Dallas Morning News, became the first candidate to say — without reservations — that he'll be on the gubernatorial ballot in 2010.Their story is here. The pronouncement could dirty some diapers in the political nursery. U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison has professed some interest in the job, but hasn't said for certain whether she'll seek the job. And Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst includes it on his list of possibles, a list that could include a reelection bid, a bid for governor or a bid for U.S. Senate, depending on what's open when he's ready to decide his next move. Democrats who get mentioned for the 2010 race include Houston Mayor Bill White, former Texas Tech Chancellor John Montford, and former Comptroller John Sharp. There's plenty of time for speculation. The filing deadline is in January 2010 — more than 20 months from now. The Austin American-Statesman caught Hutchison in Washington and put a tape of that conversation on their website. "I am very encouraged by people asking me to come home and run for governor to provide leadership for Texas," Hutchison told that paper. "I just think it's too early to make a decision like that, because I'm working very hard for candidates this cycle and I don't want to do something that's unfair to them. So, it is a decision that I will make at the appropriate time." Dewhurst said he'll decide later what's next in his political career. "My focus is on the 2009 legislative session and continuing to build on our successes over the past five years," he said. "Whatever I decide to do after that will be based on what's best for Texas." Until now, Perry has been hinting at another race, saying he'll run again if he doesn't finish the things he thinks need to be completed (he's been vague about what's on that list). His comments to the Dallas paper, later confirmed by an aide, were he first time he or anyone else has flatly declared a candidacy. By the time those elections roll around, Perry will already be the longest-serving governor in state history (he'll pass Bill Clements' eight-year record early next year). He took office after George W. Bush was elected president and then won elections in 2002 and 2006. Another term would give him up to 14 years in the Governor's Mansion.

What does it mean that Gov. Rick Perry will seek another term?

It puts him back in charge of the conversation. Kay Bailey Hutchison has been talking to supporters and potential supporters for months about a race for governor, with the conventional assumption that it'll be an open seat in 2010.

Now that Perry's weighed in, the finance people in the GOP can't support Hutchison without first spurning Perry. Even if they're predisposed to that, it's a risky action to take against a sitting governor in your own party.

Hutchison and, to a lesser extent, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, have been openly eyeing the job without committing to a run. One common line of conversation in political circles was that if either of the two would simply say they were running, everyone else's hand would be forced in a political game of "Dare Ya." Hutchison talked to potential backers in 2002 and 2006 and decided not to run against Perry each time.

That speculation, moving attention from the present to the future, weakens the incumbent's hold on the office. Perry, the present and now — because of his declaration — the future, is back in control.

It dampens the speculation about who's doing what in the next election cycle. The endless games of musical political chairs hinge on an open seat somewhere near the top of the ballot. They go like this: If Perry doesn't run, this person will run for governor and then their position will open up, and then other positions will open as each officeholder sees a higher rung to grab, and so on. Hutchison and Dewhurst haven't said they're going anywhere, for sure, and Perry's staying. Where's the open seat?

It makes it more difficult for ambitious Republicans to plan their next fights. They can't talk widely about their plans without offending current officeholders. Everybody's got to wait a bit.

Democrats have been playing musical chairs, too, trying to figure out what statewide seats might be open and which incumbents might be vulnerable if they try to stay. And those who want to be governor have a new thing to ponder: Perry only got 39 percent in the last election against three challengers. Is he beatable? He'll have been governor for ten years if he runs again. Will people want more?

If he succeeded in killing lame duck speculation, Perry might have accomplished something else: Moving the 2010 election out of 2008, where the speculation has threatened to swamp a lackluster political fight card, and into 2009, where it can compete with the Legislature for attention.

It's a little over an hour long, but if you want to hear his fellow officeholders telling great stories about the late Bob Bullock, the University of Texas has video of a panel discussion on the former legislator, comptroller and lieutenant governor. The panel features former Lt. Govs. Bill Hobby and Ben Barnes, former House Speakers Gib Lewis and Pete Laney (and Barnes), and Dave McNeely and Jim Henderson, the authors of Bob Bullock: God Bless Texas. The moderator was the LBJ School's Paul Stekler, and there's an appearance near the end by State Auditor John Keel, a former Bullock aide who doesn't like the book and stood up to say so.

Department of Corrections, Part 1: Democrat Kalandra Wheeler of Euless somehow escaped the list of contested races we ran last week (here's a copy, corrected to include her). She's running against Rep. Todd Smith, R-Euless, in HD-92. And that means the numbers are a little different than our tally. To wit: 72 House seats are at least theoretically in play, with candidates from both major parties on the ballot. Of those, 32 are currently held by Republicans, 30 by Democrats, and the ten open seats were previously held by eight Republicans and two Democrats. Sorry, sorry, sorry.

Department of Corrections, Part 2: We pulled numbers from the wrong chart in a settlement agreement concerning the state's high-cost Universal Service Fund. That fund (used to subsidize phone service in areas where costs are higher than the prices paid by customers) is being trimmed to $236.5 million, a $144 million cut. And here's where we messed up and need to get the record straight: Under the settlement, which still needs regulatory approval, Verizon's subsidy would be cut to $69 million from $97 million. AT&T would be cut to $44 million from $160 million. Embarq and Windstream would get $37.5 million and $86 million, respectively, as against $44 million and $94 million now. Sorry, sorry, sorry.