Republican John McCain would beat either Democratic candidate for president in Texas right now, according to a poll by Austin-based Baselice & Associates.Their numbers: McCain would beat Barack Obama 52 percent to 36 percent, and would beat Hillary Clinton 51 percent to 36 percent. From the limited crosstabs they shared, McCain led either Democrat in each of the state's large media markets. The Republican would get about 64 percent of the Anglo vote in either contest. Obama polled better with Blacks, getting 86 percent, while Clinton would get 66 percent. She polled better with Hispanics, getting 57 percent against McCain to the 48 percent Obama pulls against the Republican. Those numbers are from a telephone poll of 1,005 registered Texas voters May 20-25. Pollsters said 48 percent of the voters in their sample usually vote for Republicans; 40 percent said they usually vote for Democrats. Margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.

Make it official: Sen. Kyle Janek, R-Houston, handed a resignation letter to Gov. Rick Perry over lunch. He's leaving office effective June 2 and will be replaced in a special election later this year. The date of the election isn't set, but is significant. It'll be on the same day as the November general election unless Perry decides it should be earlier. If it's on that date, candidates won't be able to run on the regular ballot while running on the special one; that forces House members to decide whether to run for Senate or seek reelection. Perry has the power to call an earlier election if he wants, which would give House members and other officeholders a free shot at the Senate seat. In the race now: Republicans Austen Furse (Janek's pick), Grant Harpold, and Joan Hoffman. Democrats have tried to recruit former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell to run, and if the election's a freebie for House members, Reps. Scott Hochberg, D-Houston, and Charlie Howard, R-Sugar Land, would be on the list.

The Texas Supreme Court ruled the state didn't have the evidence it needed to remove children from the FLDS compound in Eldorado earlier this year.In a 6-3 ruling, the state's highest civil court upheld a lower appeals court, saying that, "On the record before us, removal of the children was not warranted." That's not the end of it. The Supremes ended their opinion by saying the district court still has issues to consider: "While the district court must vacate the current temporary custody orders as directed by the court of appeals, it need not do so without granting other appropriate relief to protect the children, as the mothers involved in this proceeding concede in response to the Department's motion for emergency relief. The court of appeals' decision does not conclude the SAPCR [suits affecting the parent-child relationship] proceedings." Those SAPCRs, as they're called, could allow the state to retain custody of some of the children. And the Supremes wrote that the state can keep the parents from moving the children out of Texas in an attempt to dodge the state's investigation. In her dissent, joined by two other justices, Harriet O'Neill wrote that the state's Child Protective Services agency had the right to take custody of pubescent girls in the compound, but not the boys and the prepubescent girls who did not appear to be at risk. "Evidence presented thus indicated a pattern or practice of sexual abuse of pubescent girls, and the condoning of such sexual abuse, on the Ranch — evidence sufficient to satisfy a 'person of ordinary prudence and caution' that other such girls were at risk of sexual abuse as well," she wrote. "This evidence supports the trial court's finding that 'there was a danger to the physical health or safety' of pubescent girls on the Ranch." The state's actions were challenged by 38 mothers represented by Texas RioGrande Legal Aid. Copies of the opinions are online: • 08-0391, In re Texas Department of Family and Protective Services from Schleicher County and the Third Court of Appeals, Austin, MANDAMUS RELIEF DENIED, per curiam opinion • Justice O'Neill DISSENTING, joined by Justices Johnson and Willett

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn has a 16-point lead over his Democratic rival, state Rep. Rick Noriega, according to poll results dribbled out by Austin-based Baselice & Associates.

But there's a clinker for the incumbent, too: Fewer than half of the people surveyed say they'd vote for Cornyn.

This survey has Cornyn at 49 percent and Noriega at 33 percent, similar to numbers released by the pollster a month ago. Cornyn is better known than the challenger and the candidates are winning the partisan voters you'd expect. More than a quarter of the independent voters in the survey don't yet name a favorite. And the numbers in the biggest metro areas of the state pretty much track the statewide numbers. In Houston, Noriega's home base and the only part of the state where he has previously run for election, Cornyn holds a 45%-34% lead.

It's the same survey, with the same underlying numbers as the presidential poll released by the Republican firm earlier this week. They interviewed 1,005 registered voters between May 20-25, and the margin of error is +/-3.1 percent.

For the school finance nerds there in the back row, the Equity Center has put together a big spreadsheet that'll start or settle some fights. It's a list of the so-called Chapter 41 school districts — the ones that send more money to the state than they get in return.

How many are there? Depends on who's answering the question, and how they figured up the numbers. The standard way: 172. The way the Equity Center does it: Only 78.

The Austin-based outfit — an advocate for school districts that are more reliant on the state for funding because of low local wealth — counts all of the direct state aid that comes into districts and subtracts all of the money those districts send to Austin.

If it's a negative number, that's a true Chapter 41 district, by their reckoning. Their list of "true" 41s includes the Highland Park ISD in Dallas, which sends the state a net $51.2 million annually and the Eanes ISD in Austin, which sends the state $33.7 million. Seven more districts send in $10 million or more each, and the entire group shoots $365.7 million to the state treasury every year.

The other 94 districts — this study calls them "false recapture districts" — actually bring in $737.5 million more from the state than they send in. This is where you'll hear some squeaks. The list includes Austin ISD, Beaumont ISD, Frisco ISD, Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD, Plano ISD, Richardson ISD and Spring Branch ISD.

Republican John McCain has the support of 9.4 percent of the people who voted in the Texas Democratic primary in March, according to a poll done at the behest of the Texas Observer.

They were trying to find out whether Republicans could have had an effect on the Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama contest here.

Maybe.

Leland Beatty, who did the polling, says there's no way to tell how those McCain supporters actually voted. Clinton beat Obama in Texas by 3.4 percent, so you can say there were enough there to change the result even though you can't prove it.

Beatty found other curiosities. Only 34.5 percent of the Democrats who voted in March have voted in previous Democratic primaries, while 10.8 percent were crossover voters who have some Republican voting history, and 54.7 percent hadn't voted in previous primaries. He polled them about their presidential preferences. For the newbies, Obama got 37.6 percent, Clinton got 34.8 percent, and McCain got 13.7 percent. Among the crossovers, McCain got 33.1 percent, Obama 25.1 percent, and Clinton, 21.7 percent.

Beatty also maintains that the state's entering a partisan realignment, an assertion he bases on Democratic gains in new voters, voter registration, and higher numbers of crossover voters. The donkeys beat the elephants in each of those categories, and he thinks that's a sign of lasting changes.

The polling was paired with some linguistic analysis by James Pennebaker, chairman of the psychology department at the University of Texas at Austin. He said he's not a political guy, but was asked to analyze the things people said when they were talking about the three candidates. His observations:

• Clinton supporters use shorter words. They used more first-person words like "I, me, and my." They used more concrete, less abstract, language. They used more present-tense words than supporters of the other candidates. They tended to be more positive and optimistic.

• Obama's supporters used bigger words, were more abstract in their language and tended, along with the Clinton supporters, to refer to past events more than McCain's bunch. They use the first person less than supporters of the other two. And they were more positive than the other two groups.

• McCain's group uses big words, fall somewhere in the middle on the concrete/abstract language, were less likely to talk about the past, and were more likely to use negative and "inhibitory" language. Pennebaker said they were more likely to emphasize avoiding bad things, and less like to talk about pursuing good things.

The surveys included 2,500 people interviewed between May 8 and May 19. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percent.

Barack Obama picked up two more Texas superdelegates, evening the count at 14 each for him and for Hillary Clinton.Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie and his wife, Democratic National Committeewoman Betty Richie, both announced they'll vote for Obama. That leaves seven of the state's 35 superdelegates in play. The party chairman names three at the convention (not alone; he's gonna get some input on that) and four others are named. Here's the current version of our chart:

The Texas attorney general and state Democrats have laid down their arms, both claiming victory, in a voter ID case in East Texas.

Each side says the other dropped the case. AG Greg Abbott's office says it made no new commitments about voter ID cases, other than to reiterate a general policy of going after cases that involve more than one person.

The plaintiffs sued the state for discriminating against minority voters in its enforcement of voter ID laws. They wanted part of the state's election law declared unconstitutional and to prevent the state from enforcing other provisions, and they wanted attorney fees. They got none of that. But they say the case forced a rewrite of some prosecution guidelines and what's in the instructions people get when they help others vote by mail.

From the AG's office: They'll continue to prosecute the same sorts of cases they've been prosecuting. From the Democrats: "By agreeing to this settlement, Greg Abbott is acknowledging that his office was engaging in improper prosecutions."

And check out the headlines on the press releases spawned by this. From the Plaintiffs: "Breaking News: Texas AG Abbott Settles Vote Suppression Case; Terms Favor Plaintiffs." From the AG: "Plaintiffs Drop Lawsuit That Attempted to Prevent the State from Enforcing Election Code Provisions."

• If they change the rules for picking Democratic delegates in Texas, they'll do it in two years and not in the middle of a presidential election. Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie appointed a committee to look at the process that got national attention this year. That panel, headed by Dallas Sen. Royce West, will have a report at the next convention — in 2010.

• With their state convention a week away, Texas Democrats are waiting to see what speakers they'll get from the two remaining presidential campaigns. Best case? Clinton and Obama. Next best? They — and we — don't know yet. LBJ's family will headline the traditional Blue Star Breakfast, a fundraiser for the party.