Rick Noriega, the Democrat challenging U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, has a new Internet spot with a Halloween theme.

With the November 4 election looming, candidates are kicking their advertising campaigns into high gear, and bloggers are tuned in. The bloggers also voting early, playing Nostradamus and policing the criminal justice system. And then there are a few items on political contests.

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Too Commercial

A "birds of a feather" mailer in House District 144 sparked allegations of racism throughout the blogosphere that were too numerous, obvious and homogeneous to merit links from here. Newsdesk, the Austin Chronicle's blog, says why worry about implicit racism, when the mailer is openly anti-homosexual? A Houston Chronicle's Texas Politics commenter says the mailer was racist when it ran the first time in 2003. And the county seat connects the dots, noticing that the same guy, consultant Allen Blakemore, is responsible for that earlier flier and controversial ads in Senate District 17. More here and here. (And follow these links for our takes on the allegedly racist HD-144 mailer and the SD-17 to do.)

A handful of Republican campaign websites went offline over the weekend, reports Newsdesk. The web designer responsible for them says that was due to a conflict with the host company. The temporary shutdown was unrelated to reports that Republicans have been lifting liberal bloggers' stuff off the Net and using it without permission, but that's interesting, too. The victims: Newsdesk , Capitol Annex and mean rachel .

In Congressional District 22, Annex relays a Democratic spot funded by national committees on GOP candidate Pete Olson, focusing on alleged voting fraud. Half Empty has a response by Democratic incumbent Nick Lampson's campaign to Olson's response. (We wrote about the voter fraud stuff here.)

In CD-10, GOP incumbent Michael McCaul's campaign has finally gotten around to using clips from Democratic opponent Larry Joe Doherty's old television show Texas Justice. The goal is to portray Doherty as "racially insensitive," Texas Politics says.

Out in CD-17, guerilla operatives mar Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards's campaign sign — attempting to link him to his own party, reports The Jackalope's Voice. And Panhandle's Perspective gives a report on yard signage from Florida to Victoria (the hometown of Out There's writer, hurrah!) [eds. note: We have not hired any writers from Florida, so far].

U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock, who's facing Democratic challenger Brian Ruiz, takes advantage of new media to write a post for Williamson Republic. Fellow incumbent U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, meanwhile, talks to Off the Kuff. And CD-4 Democrat Glenn Melancon produces an ad attacking incumbent Republican Ralph Hall and then posts it on Texas Kaos.

From Vaqueros & Wonkeros, the El Paso Times's blog: Republican House candidate Dee Margo sent out a mailer defending himself against attacks by Democrat Joe Moody — attacks that Moody had not yet launched. Moody, however, does have a large sign up in front of El Paso County GOP headquarters (on a property owned by GOP County Commissioner Dan Haggerty, whose brother Rep. Pat Haggerty lost to Margo in March). More Moody media here, including a robo call from Hillary Clinton . Meanwhile, Margo is bribing early voters with donuts.

U.S. Rep. Michael Burgess says he's not the man behind anti-Barack Obama robo calls in north Texas (though he admits the voiceover man does sound like him), says PoliTex, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's blog, while the Houston Chronicle's Texas on the Potomac posts 10 videos featuring CD-10 rivals John Culberson, GOP incumbent, and Michael Skelly, Democratic challenger.

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Early and Often

BurkaBlog has a University of Houston professor's observations on the early vote. Some highlights: The Anglo vote is up; the minority vote is way up; and, Democrats might have an edge in early voting thus far.

Burnt Orange Report is updating its Travis County voter turnout projecting model after each day of early voting -- one, two, three, four, five and six. (Their prediction on Sunday was that about 330,000 people in Travis County would vote early.)

Lone Star Times voted "against [Barack] Hussein Obama, Rick Noriega, and racism." Rhetoric & Rhythm's vote canceled out LST's. And Right Side of the Rainbow voted straight-ticket Republican, reluctantly, while Memoirs From a Young Conservative is glad she voted for incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn .

Newsdesk describes an election office mistake affecting 3,000 Williamson County voters, while the campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, says the numbers thus far are looking like "very bad news" for his boss, says Postcards, the Austin American-Statesman's blog.

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Shot Calling

Right Side predicts a 10-percentage-point Obama win over McCain nationally, a six-seat pickup by the Dems in the U.S. Senate (55-43-2) and a 26-seat gain by the Dems in the U.S. House (261-174), with Texas Reps picking up one Democratic incumbent's place. Meanwhile, Burka says Obama has checkmated McCain.

Joshua's Political Blog says it's game, set, match in favor of Sen. Cornyn. Pondering Penguin, too, says it looks like Cornyn will win. And Lonnie Walker's Blog says, "At this point, Noriega should understand he's not winning this election and should probably follow his party's defeatist attitude and just give up."

And Letters From Texas is putting his money where other people's mouths are with a guess-how-many-electoral-votes-Obama-gets challenge to determine the "Biggest Baddest Politically Savvy Mo-Fo In Texas." Vote by Halloween or just sit there.

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Crime and Punishment

Grits for Breakfast says the closing of the Texas Youth Commission's never-used facility in Eagle Pass is a blow to Senate Criminal Justice chair John Whitmire's plan to regionalize the agency. (Read the comments for an entertaining discussion of the agency's direction, or lack thereof, depending on your perspective.) On a related note, the houston conservative talks to Marc Levin about a report he wrote on "measuring performance in the juvenile justice system."

While he was making thousands of phone calls with a smuggled cell phone, death row inmate Richard Tabler did not bother to ring his attorney, says Tex Parte Blog. Grits answers the question, How do you sneak a cell phone into death row, anyway? (No, it's not the way we were thinking, either.) Regardless of how they got there, "Jam the damn things," Whitmire tells Texas Politics.

And Grits explains how "Counties can save big bucks by eliminating jail time for people who're never charged with a crime."

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Random Politickin'

A State Board of Education candidate says her incumbent Republican opponent should be declared ineligible because he hasn't lived in the district he represents "since at least 2000," according to Kaos. Meanwhile, Postcards looks at a couple of presidential primary bundlers who aren't making the effort for the general election.

Potomac has a "closing argument" from Skelly in CD-7, plus overviews of Houston-area congressional races: CD-7, CD-10 and CD-22. And this video via Trail Blazers is the closest you'll get to having BBQ with Gov. Rick Perry, unless you can write a fat check or are friends with someone who can.

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This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is semi-settled in Austin. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

Funny things pass the House when people aren't looking. HR 2936 passed near the end of the last legislative session on a voice vote, got signed by the Speaker, and there it sits, with ban on collecting pledges for a speaker candidate and a procedure for electing a speaker with a secret ballot.The resolution, in full:

H.R. No. 2936

R E S O L U T I O N

BE IT RESOLVED by the House of Representatives of the State of Texas, 80th Legislature, That from this date forward, the practice of a speaker collecting from the members of this house written pledges to support the candidacy of that speaker for election as speaker in a future legislature is abolished and prohibited; and

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED That, in accordance with Sections 9(b) and 11, Article III, Texas Constitution, the House of Representatives of the 81st Legislature should elect a speaker of the house from its own membership as follows:

SECTION 1. NOMINATIONS. (a) The secretary of state shall call for nominations from the floor for the election of speaker of the house of representatives and shall recognize every member who desires to make a nomination.

(b) Each member recognized for this purpose shall immediately advance to the front microphone and make the nomination in a nominating speech not to exceed five minutes in length.

(c) After all nominations have been made, the secretary of state shall declare nominations to be closed.

SECTION 2. SECONDS. (a) A person is not considered a nominee unless the nomination is seconded by at least one member.

(b) One seconding speech shall be allowed for each nomination in the order in which nominations were made, then other seconding speeches shall be allowed in rotation in the same order.

(c) No more than five seconding speeches shall be allowed for each nominee.

(d) A seconding speech may not exceed three minutes in length.

SECTION 3. VOTING PROCEDURES. (a) The chief clerk shall prepare paper ballots containing the name of each nominee and a space for indicating that the member is present, not voting. The ballot shall be prepared to allow a member to mark the ballot in a manner that does not disclose the member's identity.

(b) The chief clerk shall designate a voting area for the members to mark their ballots and shall provide a voting box for the marked ballots. Each member shall be called individually by the reading clerk and shall proceed to the voting area when called. As a member arrives at the voting area, the chief clerk shall hand the member the member's ballot and allow the member to privately mark the ballot. After marking the ballot, the member shall fold the ballot and return it to the chief clerk. The chief clerk shall initial each marked ballot and the ballot shall be deposited in the voting box.

(c) After all members have voted, the chief clerk, journal clerk, and voting clerk shall publicly count the ballots on the house floor. A ballot may not be counted unless it bears the chief clerk's initials. The chief clerk shall prepare a tally sheet indicating the total votes received by each nominee and the total number of ballots counted as present, not voting.

(d) A verification of a vote taken consists solely of ensuring that a marked ballot was tallied correctly.

(e) All votes taken shall be by secret ballot and only the results of the election, including the total number of votes cast for each nominee and the number of members present, not voting, shall be entered in the House Journal.

SECTION 4. RESULTS; RUNOFF. (a) The secretary of state shall announce the results of the election. If a nominee receives a majority of the votes cast, the secretary of state shall declare that nominee to be elected to the office of speaker of the house of representatives. For purposes of determining a majority of the votes cast for speaker under this resolution, only a ballot marked for a single nominee is considered a vote cast.

(b) If no nominee receives a majority of the votes cast, the two nominees receiving the largest number of votes in the initial vote shall be in a runoff conducted in accordance with the voting procedures for the initial vote. The secretary of state shall announce the results of the runoff and declare the nominee receiving a majority of the votes cast to be elected.

SECTION 5. TIE VOTES. (a) If in the initial vote no nominee receives a majority of the votes cast and it is not possible to determine the two nominees receiving the largest number of votes cast because of a tie vote, an additional round of voting shall occur among the same nominees, other than a nominee who withdraws. If a nominee receives a majority of the votes cast, the secretary of state shall declare that nominee to be elected to the office of speaker. If no nominee receives a majority of the votes cast, the two nominees who receive the largest number of votes cast shall be in a runoff conducted in the manner provided by Section 4(b) of this resolution.

(b) If in a runoff between two nominees no nominee receives a majority of the votes cast because of a tie vote, an additional round of runoff voting shall occur between the same two nominees.

(c) If the additional round of voting under Subsection (a) or (b) fails to resolve the tie vote, the secretary of state shall again call for nominations from the floor for the election of speaker and proceed with the election of a speaker in the manner provided by this resolution from among the new nominees.

SECTION 6. OATH. (a) After the election, the secretary of state shall direct the administration of the oath of office to the speaker-elect. The speaker shall take the chair immediately after taking the oath of office.

(b) After the speaker takes the oath of office, the chief clerk shall destroy all paper ballots used in the election of the speaker.

Merritt

Harless

He might be gravely ill, but Dallas lawyer Fred Baron gave nearly $1.5 million to the Texas Democratic Trust on October 7, leading the (incomplete) list of contributors to Texas campaigns and committees in the latest finance reports.

Those reports, due this week, aren't all in, and not all of them are online; in fact, what's available and newsworthy so far is mostly from the left. Baron's contribution is by far the largest reported so far for the period between September 25 and this past weekend. Campaigns have to file these "8-day reports" the week before the election; after that, they have to report contributions, but not expenditures, for the last week. The final accounting won't be public until January, when all candidates and officeholders have to file reports on their political finances.

Baron made two contributions to that PAC, one of $1,471,000 on October 7, and another of $26,000 on October 22. Only two others gave during the month to the TDT: David Mincberg of Houston gave $300,000 and Aimee Boone of Austin — the Texas Democratic Party's finance director — gave $50,000. The PAC spent $2.1 million during the month, including a $300,000 contribution to Houston's First Tuesday PAC (four days after the contribution from Mincberg, who's running for Harris County judge). The PAC gave $170,675 to the House Democratic Campaign Committee.

The Trust, which has been the largest funder of the Texas Democratic Party for the last few years, won't lose that reputation soon: It gave the party several contributions totaling $1,502,759 (The party's 8-day report wasn't immediately available).

• The Texas Parent PAC, targeted at public schools in general and at opponents of publicly funded vouchers for private schools in particular, raised $404,428 ($390,000 of that from Charles Butt of San Antonio) and spent $425,074 during the month. That group's report lists ten candidates it supports, all Democrats.

• The Blue Texas PAC didn't bring much in during the month, but that relatively new committee spent $445,025 on Democratic candidates for the House (roughly what it spent in the last report).

Candidates are still raising money, with just days to go; these contributions will be in the telegram reports filed between now and the election.Click to get the whole thing, but the hosts are Louis Beecherl and Harold Simmons of Dallas. The guest star is Gov. Rick Perry. And the beneficiaries are Republicans challenging incumbent Democrats in four House races: Isaac Castro of Hamlin, Kirby Hollingsworth of Mount Vernon, Brian Walker of Tatum, and Karen Wiegman of Grand Prairie. They're challenging, in order: Joe Heflin of Crosbyton, Mark Homer of Paris, Chuck Hopson of Jacksonville, and Kirk England of Grand Prairie.

Texas House Democrats say they spent $1 million from July to now on incumbents and challengers in a year when the donkeys have (so far) been financially competitive with the elephants in House contests.In a self-congratulatory letter to their fellows, the leaders of the House Democratic Campaign Committee say that amount doesn't count what they spent in the primaries or what they've spent on support staff.

The executive director of the Texas Lottery died today after a long illness.Anthony Sadberry was appointed to the Texas Lottery Commission in 1993 by then-Gov. Ann Richards and served until 2001 (including a stint as chairman). He returned as the lottery's executive director in 2006. He was an attorney in the Houston offices of New York City-based Epstein, Becker and Green

That's the number of registered voters in Texas, according to Secretary of State Hope Andrade, up from 12.7 million in the primaries and 13.1 million in the general election two years ago (and in the 2004 general election).Voter turnout in 2004 — the last presidential election — was 56.6 percent. If you extrapolate that to this year's registration numbers, about 7.6 million Texans will vote this year. Caution: That's not a number from the SOS; they'll make their turnout projections sometime between now and Tuesday. Through the close of voting on Monday, more than 2 million Texans had voted in the state's top 14 counties.

Republicans and Democrats poured millions into state races during the last 30 days, including nearly $10 million into Texas House contests.

Rep. Jim Keffer says he'll start briefing the press on the race for Speaker of the Texas House an hour after the polls close on Election Night, and he's not getting ready for another term for House Speaker Tom Craddick.Here's the press release he put out late this afternoon:

Jim Keffer Announces Election Night Countdown For New Texas House Speaker

Keffer has traveled state extensively the past year meeting with House members and candidates Austin, Texas, Wednesday, October 29, 2008---- "The times they are a-changing," announced State Representative Jim Keffer (R-Eastland). "Within 24 hours of the polls closing after Tuesday's historic election, I predict there will be a new consensus choice for Texas House Speaker." Keffer said he plans to consolidate his Republican and Democratic support for Texas House Speaker on election night, Tuesday, November 4th. "I will begin updating the press beginning at 8:00 p.m. on election night," said Keffer. Keffer has extensively traveled the state this past year meeting with House members and state house candidates, often times spending the night with them in their homes. After meeting with House members in their districts, Keffer said he is "100% sure a new Speaker for the Texas House of Representatives will be chosen for next session." According to Keffer, "regardless of how the Republican and Democrat numbers change in the Texas House, there is a majority desire for a new Speaker." "The sentiment for change is not personal, members in the Texas House just want bipartisan leadership which is committed to restoring the rules of conduct and fairness" Keffer stated. "Those who served last session remember all too well the four months of absolute chaos that preceded Craddick's last minute claim of absolute authority." "The issues and challenges before Texas are all too serious to repeat this chaotic journey again." Keffer said he has offered one important promise to his House colleagues, "I will be a Speaker for the members, not the special interests." Keffer said he also supports a three term limit on the Speaker's post and strongly favors returning to House rules on seniority to insure fairness in committee appointments. "When I came to Austin, there was an orderly process to the House ," Keffer said. "Its time to "heed the call" and put our state House back together."

John McCain leads Barack Obama and John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega in a fresh poll of state voters by the Texas Politics Project and Department of Government at The University of Texas at Austin.

They've got the Republican leading the presidential race 51 percent to 40 percent, and the incumbent Republican leading the race for U.S. Senate 45 percent to 36 percent.

Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate for president, has the support of 1.5 percent of those surveyed. Yvonne Adams-Schick, the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate, had 5 percent.

Some high points:

• In a hypothetical matchup, the Texas respondents said they'd vote for Republican Sarah Palin for president (51 percent) over Democrat Joe Biden (43 percent).

• President George W. Bush's approval rating in Texas, according to this survey, is 36 percent. Gov. Rick Perry's is 38 percent. But their negative ratings varied more, with 50 percent having a negative view of the president and 39 percent having a negative view of the governor.

• More than a fifth — 23 percent — think Obama is a Muslim, while 46 percent identified him correctly as a Protestant.

• The poll used "feeling thermometers" to measure voter responses to various state and national figures; U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison got the highest score there, ahead of the president, the presidential and Senate candidates, and the top three state officials.

• Three-fourths of those surveyed disapprove of Congress' handling of the economy and energy.

The survey was done on the Internet during October 15-22. It included 550 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent. Details of this and a previous poll in July are on their website.

Republicans and Democrats are sparring over a GOP mailing that published the Democratic candidate's Social Security Number. The piece came from the GOP on behalf of Tim Kleinschmidt, who's challenging Democrat Donnie Dippel for the seat left open by Robby Cook, D-Eagle Lake.

The mailer attacks Dippel for having filed for bankruptcy 19 years ago. It's covered with tax information for both Dippel and his wife — and includes Social Security numbers. Although someone tried to black them out, the Dippel campaign says if you hold the mailer to a light, you can see both numbers easily. Dippel might or might not have a legal case since there was an attempt to hide the numbers. But the political case is open: the Democrats say it's a no-no.

(History lesson: Something similar happened during this year's GOP primary in Pasadena's HD-144. Ken Legler, the eventual victor, sent a mail piece attacking his opponent Fred Roberts. It included Roberts' Social Security number, and he apparently filed a police report and enrolled in an identity protection program.)

"It's impossible not to see that," says Hector Nieto, spokesman for the Texas Democratic Party. "For them to say that this was just a mistake or an accident is just a little misleading. It's just wrong, putting a candidate and his family in danger of being a victim of a crime. It shows a new tactic, a new low in the Republican Party."

"With graphics like that, a black marker won't cover it up," says Jeff Crosby, Dippel's consultant. "It's easy to get rid of them, you just go in and Photoshop them."

The GOP, which paid for the mailer on Kleinschmidt's behalf, isn't worried.

"I'm holding it up to all kinds of light," says Hans Klingler, spokesman for the Texas GOP and architect of the mail piece, "and I don't see it."

Klingler says the real issue is that when Dippel filed for bankruptcy, he left taxpayers and creditors with the burden.

"This was to alert the voters to know that this individual wants to make decisions with hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money, which as a lobbyist he knows about, when he has a checkered taxpayer history," he says.

Dippel's version: He was building a house, and before it was finished, the builder split and took the cash. Wanting to avoid foreclosure, Dippel filed for bankruptcy. He eventually finished the house, which is in La Grange, and lives there now with his family.

But the Kleinschmidt campaign, though consultant Eric Bearse, says there's more to it. According to their research, Dippel was in debt from his mortgage, and when the bank sued him to collect, Dippel countersued on the grounds that the builder wasn't finished — but he lost and that's when he filed for bankruptcy.

Bearse says the claims should help his client.

"Certainly a lot of people have been thru difficult financial times," he says, "but those people aren't asking voters to elect them to the Texas House and watch over their tax dollars. This is something that voters need to know. He mismanaged his own money and now he's asking him to let him mismanage their money."

Crosby admits his client's long-ago bankruptcy might have some resonance with voters.

"But when voters are told it was 19 years ago, and they hear the story... it seems like a low, dirty shock from Kleinschmidt."

Another Kleinschmidt mailer caused some groans last week. Democratic blogger Rachel Farris of mean rachel was livid when she saw that Kleinschmidt used her photos of Dippel on a mailer without permission. She took the photo at a rally for Dippel, CD-10 candidate Larry Joe Doherty and Bastrop County judicial candidate Chris Duggan. The Kleinschmidt camp sent a mailer aligning Dippel with Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, with the photo of Dippel posing by Farris's Obama plates. Although her blog has a copyright disclaimer, a lawyer told Farris the mailer is considered "fair use" because it doesn't serve a commercial purpose.

"The people who produce the mail piece are making money," argues Farris, who laments that she doesn't really have time or money to do much more about it than post a complaint on her blog.

The kicker? Take another look at the bankruptcy mail piece — it's Farris' photo, with the car and the sign cropped out.

—by Karie Meltzer

Fred Baron, one of the nation's most successful trial lawyers and more recently, the biggest single financier of Democratic politics in Texas, died this afternoon. He was 61.Baron had been battling cancer with the help of experimental drug treatments. He founded the Baron and Budd law firm, amassing a fortune winning asbestos and other toxic tort cases. And in the last few years, he put up millions to jump-start the moribund Texas Democratic Party, funding research, candidates and party-building efforts that, among other things, have helped Democrats bring the Texas House close to party parity. He was also the national finance chairman for presidential candidate John Edwards and made headlines this summer when he admitted sending money to Edwards' former mistress to help relocate her to California. Details on services aren't yet available, but family and friends are planning to hold a memorial Monday in Dallas.

You'll find some policy and some politics in Gov. Rick Perry's speech last week to the Texas Taxpayers and Research Association.

Policy? What he's thinking about the state budget (he's no longer talking about a rebate to state taxpayers, but about the "two significant storms," i.e., Hurricane Ike and whatever you want to call Wall Street's mess), property appraisal reform, the state's business climate ("If you're a business person and you're staying in California, it's for some reason other than your bottom line"), and budget transparency.

Politics? His speech — you can see this in the first minutes of the video, now on his website — started with effusive praise for Democrat John Sharp, a potential candidate for U.S. Senate if and when Kay Bailey Hutchison gives up her post. (They were friends in college and beyond. They ran against each other in a tough race for Lite Guv in 1998. They made up and Sharp helped Perry pass the margins tax bill in 2006.)

The conventional wisdom in Austin, if you can call it that, is that Hutchison will quit early to run against Perry for governor and that she might resign before next summer. If that happens, Perry will appoint her replacement and call a special election. And Perry's appointee would have to run against a pack that includes Sharp, who's now got a video of the Guv's high praise, should he need it.

The dollars in Texas political races tell you what the moneyed folk are interested in: They're interested in the Texas House.

Lookit: Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, a Republican, raised more than any other statewide official outside of the race for U.S. Senate. In his most recent report, his donors gave him $200,307. Do a quick back-of-the-envelope count on legislative races and you'll find at least two dozen where either the Democrat or the Republican or both brought in more money than that. Three Republican House candidates — Rep. Bill Zedler of Arlington and open-seat candidates Bryan Daniel of Georgetown and Tim Kleinschmidt of Lexington — each pulled in more than $500,000 in the last 30 days. Together, they brought in $1.7 million in October.

Not to take anything away from anyone, but that's not really about Daniel, Kleinschmidt, and Zedler. What's at stake is control of the House. Republicans have 79 seats now (including two open seats where Republicans resigned) to the Democrats' 71. Flip four seats and you've got a tie (and a treat for political pinheads). Flip five and it's a Democratic House. Flip one or two or three, and you've probably got a contested race for Speaker of the House.

So it's only fitting that the biggest single political donor on the Republican side in October was House Speaker Tom Craddick, who'd like to keep that position for another two years.

In 21 House races we're tracking, the candidates raised a total of $9.4 million, spent a total of $7.6 million, and had $3.5 million left to play with during the remaining week of the campaign. If you didn't have your calculator handy, that's an average of $449,178 in contributions, $362,838 in spending, and $169,689 on hand.

That turns into mail and broadcast advertising, consultants, getting out the vote. And if you look through the charts, you'll see what races the political financiers decided were in need of late money and which ones weren't, either because the contestants are duds or because one side or another has put the race away.

The race for speaker is well under way, with Republicans talking about who might succeed Craddick and Democrats talking about that, and about which of them might win the corner office if there's an earthquake on Tuesday and the Republicans are no longer running the House.

Some possible plot lines:

• Republicans hold steady or pick up seats on Tuesday. Craddick probably wins reelection.

• Republicans loose a couple of seats but retain partisan control of the House. Craddick would be in trouble, and he's got two groups breathing on him. The first is known in Austin as the ABCs, for Anybody But Craddick. The second group includes Republicans who'd like a change in management but don't want to reveal themselves until they're sure it's going to happen. A candidate from the first group would get his or her fellow ABCs and most of the Democrats in the House, who also seek Craddick's defeat. A candidate from the second group would argue that a Republican speaker should have a majority of the House's Republicans and not just renegades who've cut a deal with the other party.

• Tie, with 75 Republicans and 75 Democrats. Craddick's out, and it's time for a coalition candidate who can get enough Democrats and Republicans to get a majority. Outsiders will be looking at party affiliations; House members will be looking at their relationships, trying to figure out which new speaker would give each of them the best deal, whether it be a chairmanship, a great office, parking space or whatever.

• Democrats win a net of five or more seats. The Republicans are all out of the running and the Democrats have to work their funky math. This time, the two groups are the Craddick D's — Democrats who've been supporters and lieutenants of the current speaker — and Democrats who've been chafing since he won the job in 2003. And the questions are similar to those in a narrowly Republican House: Do you get a Democratic speaker elected mostly by Democrats, mostly by Republicans, or with a more even mix.

The potential challengers on both sides are apparently playing nice, staying in contact and trying to ignore outside noise from lobbyists, reporters, and other pests. An effort to knock off Craddick two years ago failed, in part, because his opponents couldn't settle on a challenger (and in part because he outmaneuvered everyone else). There are a handful of real and potential candidates on the Republican side (Byron Cook of Corsicana, Dan Gattis of Georgetown, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, Jim Keffer of Eastland, Edmund Kuempel of Seguin, Jim Pitts of Waxahachie) and more on the Democratic side (Craig Eiland of Galveston, Pete Gallego of Alpine, Scott Hochberg of Houston, Richard Raymond of Laredo, Allan Ritter of Nederland, Senfronia Thompson of Houston, Sylvester Turner of Houston). Once they know Tuesday's results, they might keep singing "Kumbaya." Or this could look like one of those water polo matches in the Summer Olympics that ended with blood in the water.

What you're about to read is probably bunk.Early vote in top 15 counties, 2004: 2,412,952 Early vote in all 254 counties, 2004: 3,779,124 Total early vote attributable to top 15 counties: 63.85% Early vote, so far this year, in top 15 counties: 3,117,005 Early vote in all counties, so far this year, if the ratio from 2004 holds: 4,881,800 Total vote, 2004: 7,410,749 Early vote as a percentage of total vote, 2004: 50.99 Total vote, this year, if the early/late ratio from 2004 holds: 9,573,065 Difference, 2004 to 2008, if all that holds: 2,164,316 votes Difference, 2004 to 2008, if if if: 29.18 percent Source for real numbers: Texas Secretary of State Source for extrapolations: Calculator, legal pad

Some legislative Democrats want their party caucus to choose the next speaker of the House if Democrats take over in Tuesday's elections.

It would take a particularly good night for that to happen: Democrats would have to win a net five seats to win a majority. But they're confident they'll pick up some seats (yes, some Republicans are confident in the other direction), and they're floating a blueprint for voting as a caucus for the next speaker.

A "draft" of the rules, signed by Reps. Rafael Anchia of Dallas and Joaquin Castro of San Antonio, asks the Democratic speaker candidates to abide by the vote of the caucus on the day after the election.

If Democrats take the House, they want the candidates to show up for that vote (or series of votes) and for the caucus to emerge united behind one candidate. If the Republicans win, they want the caucus to stick together on that vote, too.

We have no idea whether the House Democrats will sign off on this — until it's done, they don't either — but it's the proposal du jour. They plan to meet Wednesday afternoon, after they know how what the state's voters have done.

They're trying, apparently, to keep the Democrats from cutting each other to pieces in a fight for control over the House. There are nearly a dozen Democrats and Republicans openly coveting the title — not including Speaker Tom Craddick, who wants it back — and the battle after the election could be a noisy and politically bloody one.

If the other Democrats go along, it also slams the door on any Democrat — no, we don't have a name in mind — whose victory depends on a coalition that has more Republicans in it than Democrats. If the Democrats win, one strategy for a conservative Democrat would be to take a bloc of 20 conservative Democrats to the Republican caucus and appeal to them as the least liberal ticket possible in a Democratic House. The Anchia-Castro plan would prevent that, if all of the Democrats agree to abide by the caucus vote. The Republicans, in that case, would have to eat whatever dish the Democrats are serving.

In a House controlled by Republicans, it would force GOP members to either stick with a candidate elected in their own caucus — that's likely to be Craddick — or to come up with a candidate who can win a majority of the votes in the Democratic caucus while bringing along a group of more than a dozen Republicans.

The Democratic bloc idea could force Republicans to consider the same thing, a move that would force the so-called ABC Republicans — Anybody But Craddick — to fight or flee. And it could force middlers on both sides — moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats — into a bloc of their own, devoted to the idea of electing a speaker from the middle instead of from one of the two parties, like it's done in Washington.

Our current list of real and potential candidates includes: Republicans Byron Cook of Corsicana, Dan Gattis of Georgetown, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, Jim Keffer of Eastland, Edmund Kuempel of Seguin, Jim Pitts of Waxahachie, and Burt Solomons of Carrollton, and Democrats Craig Eiland of Galveston, Pete Gallego of Alpine, Scott Hochberg of Houston, Richard Raymond of Laredo, Allan Ritter of Nederland, Senfronia Thompson of Houston, and Sylvester Turner of Houston.

Here's a copy of the Anchia/Castro letter:

October 31, 2008

Dear House Colleagues:

As we prepare for Election Day, we wanted to share a few thoughts with you. While primary focus this week must remain on winning our respective races—as members of the House Democratic Caucus we must also prepare for the very real possibility that Democrats may win a majority in the Texas House of Representatives. We owe it to each other and to the State of Texas to be prepared. With a majority, Democrats will carry the honor and responsibility of effectively governing the lower chamber. Among our first acts as we open the 81st Legislative Session on January 13, 2008, will be to elect a Speaker of the House.

Historically, Speaker races have been divisive affairs, characterized by secret negotiations, pledge cards and special interest interference. Like you, we believe that we can do better. First, it is critically important that we develop an open, transparent and orderly process for selecting leadership of the Texas House. Second, we must ensure that suspicion, rumor and innuendo not undermine our solidarity and trust as a Democratic Caucus. If we allow outside special interests to divide us, we will fail to deliver positive and meaningful change for the people we represent. Finally, we should adopt a process by which our Republican colleagues feel honored, respected and included.

In that spirit, we offer the following proposal to keep us united and focused so that we may move Texas in the right direction. The process proposed below should be viewed as a vital first step in fulfilling Article III, Section 8 of the Bylaws of the House Democratic Caucus which reads as follows:

"Section 8. Speaker Races: Before each regular session of the Legislature or at any other time when a vacancy in the office of Speaker of the House of Representatives occurs, the Democratic Caucus shall nominate one of its members for election as Speaker of the House."

We begin by asking that you refrain from signing pledge cards for specific Democratic candidates and instead sign on to this Democratic Caucus Pledge. The validity of this Democratic Caucus Pledge is contingent upon Democrats winning at least 75 seats during the upcoming elections.

As a signatory to the Democratic Caucus Pledge, you agree to:

1) Support a Democrat for Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives. In the event that Democrats win less than 75 seats, Republican candidates for Speaker will also be invited to solicit support from the Democratic Caucus pursuant to the process set forth below.

2) Participate in a Democratic Caucus meeting scheduled by the Democratic Caucus Chair on Wednesday, November 5, 2008 at 2:00pm (the "Caucus Meeting") to begin the process of choosing a Democrat for Speaker of the House. If unable to attend for whatever reason, you agree to issue a written proxy to another Democratic Caucus colleague to vote (discussed below) on your behalf. This proxy should be recorded with the Chair of the House Democratic Caucus at least one hour prior to the Caucus Meeting.

3) Hear presentations from all of the Democratic candidates that have filed papers declaring their candidacy for Speaker prior to the Democratic Caucus meeting.

4) Participate in a Democratic Caucus straw poll to help choose a Democrat for Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives. The method of straw poll voting shall be agreed upon in advance by a majority of the Democratic Speaker candidates and approved by the membership at the Caucus Meeting. The voting system may include successive straw poll voting rounds to arrive broad consensus among the Democratic Caucus.

5) Vote a private ballot in the straw poll that will be counted by a group of three disinterested and respected Democrats.

6) Remain present in the Caucus Meeting room until the vote is taken and tabulated and a winner is announced.

7) Emerge united and prepared to work toward electing a Democratic Speaker.

It is our hope that Democratic Speaker Candidates receiving the fewest votes during each round of voting would agree in advance to withdraw their candidacies. Whether or not the straw poll will be binding is something open for discussion. However, we believe that the straw poll will coalesce the Democratic Caucus around the best candidates able to build a robust governing majority with our Republican colleagues. A Democratic Speaker straw poll winner will be expected to reach out to and work with Republican legislators. The history of Democrats and Republicans sharing important legislative duties and working together toward a better for future for Texas must be respected and preserved.

We are in an exciting moment. We believe that next week the people of Texas will vote to change the business-as-usual politics that has kept our state from reaching its full potential. Entrusted with their confidence, we must change the business-as-usual politics in the Texas House of Representatives that has kept us from reaching our potential. We hope you will join us in that effort.

Please accept this draft proposal as a starting point for our conversation about how we can work toward electing a Democratic Speaker for the 81st Legislative Session should we have a majority. We expect inquiries from the media with respect to this draft and will emphasize with them our desire for an open, transparent and orderly process. We especially want to hear from you and ask that you forward your opinions, comments and suggestions to Jeff Rotkoff at the House Democratic Campaign Committee at jeff@texashdcc.com.

Sincerely,

Rafael Anchia State Representative – District 103 Dallas

Joaquin Castro State Representative – District 125 San Antonio

Candidate Austen Furse, consultant Allen Blakemore, and the Best of Texas PAC can't use a group of websites to antagonize Republican Joan Huffman, and have to stop using mail and email to drive traffic to those sites, a Houston judge ordered Friday.

Furse and Huffman, both Republicans, are among the six candidates running for the open SD-17 seat in the Texas Senate. It's a special election, so there will be a primary, so finishing second is worth something as long as the first place candidate doesn't exceed 50 percent of the vote.

The Houston Chronicle has a write-up, and a copy of the temporary restraining order is attached below.