The bloom in voting around the country has Texas politicos wondering what'll happen to turnout here, both in the March primaries and in November. Four years ago, just over 1.5 million people voted in the Democratic and Republican primaries here — about 9.5 percent of the state's voting age population.We decided to go nuts with the historic numbers, to get an idea of previous turnouts and to get ready for March 4, when we'll find out just how jazzed people really are about these primaries. This first chart is all regular state elections from 1970 to now. The "shark's mouth" line covers general elections with presidential and gubernatorial candidates on board; more people vote in presidential years and that's why you get that sawtooth pattern. Democrats fell from the big turnouts of a one-party state to the lower turnouts that mark our present-day politics.

This one maps raw vote totals in presidential primary years. The state's population has grown, as has the general election vote total. And the parties over the years have reached rough parity, at least in turnouts. The total number of voters who show up for primary elections has declined in recent years, in spite of growth in the state's population.

Fewer Texans vote in gubernatorial election years, but the trends match, more or less, those of presidential election years.

Finally, we put the prexies and the goobers are on the same chart and filtered out population growth by ditching raw vote totals in favor of turnout as a percentage of voting age population. If this is a normal year — that is, if the soothsayers are wrong and turnouts do what they've always done — 40 to 50 percent of the state's voting age population will vote in November, the Democratic primary will draw 5 to 7 percent, and the GOP primary will draw 4 to 8 percent. A note: Republican primary turnouts in Texas were higher than normal in the last two cycles, as they had a Texas Republican on the ballot.

You can always find a candidate in Texas whose campaign blueprint is dependent on a rare or unprecedented event.

Sometimes it's a political shrimp who pays the filing fee like you'd pay for a lottery ticket, holding the fantasy in mind for a minute and hoping or wishing that getting on the ballot will get them a leather chair in the statehouse. Think of Victor Morales' first run for U.S. Senate, when he beat two congressmen and a prominent lawyer in a Democratic primary in 1996, or of Steve Mansfield, a Republican who unexpectedly knocked an incumbent Democrat off the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals in 1994.

Sometimes it's a big fish. Tony Sanchez Jr. ran for governor on the theory that a lot of people would show up to vote who had never voted before. And that they'd vote for him. And other Democrats on the statewide ticket (some of whom might have sold him on the idea in the first place).

But this year's unprecedented thing has some data behind it. The hyperactive presidential race remains unsettled — at least on the Democratic side of the ledger — and it's been bumping up turnouts in other states on its way here.

Think of it: All those Texans who give money to candidates on both sides of presidential elections actually lived to see some of that money get spent in their home state.

The Texas primaries are on March 4. Early voting starts just more than a week from now — on February 19. And national candidates are starting to do something they haven't done in Texas in years and years. They're campaigning, spending money on ads, and trying to gin up excitement and support.

The updraft will probably affect Texas candidates. They and their consultants and friends are trying to figure out what to do, who's at risk, and who's about to win the electoral lottery.

• Republicans either lucked out or not. Lookit: Incumbents running for reelection are already nervous about what might be an electorate looking for change. A presidential candidate pushing that message brings more people to the polls, supposedly in search of fresh faces, new candidates. Without a GOP primary to speak of, turnout might be normal: Good for incumbents, bad for challengers.

Local mileage can vary, however. Those incumbents still have to work on whatever made them nervous in the first place. State lawmakers who were on the watch list two weeks ago — when most people thought Super Tuesday would settle this round of the national debate — are still on the watch list today.

• Democrats have a different take on this. Say you're in a district where voter turnouts are generally low. Rep. Kevin Bailey, D-Houston, is an example. He got 70 percent of the vote in the 2006 Democratic primary, but only won by 517 votes in a district where 1,295 people bothered to show up for the primary. Compare that to, say, Norma Chavez, D-El Paso. She got 70 percent, too. And her raw vote margin was 3,910 votes of 9,724 cast. A relatively small number of new voters could change the outcome in Bailey's district. It could save him if the new voters don't like his challenger this time. It could kill him if they're out for change. It could change the demographics of the vote. Bailey, an Anglo representing a minority district, is being challenged by a Latino, Armando Lucio Walle. Bailey can win with a standard turnout, but who benefits from a higher one? It depends on what the new voters want in a candidate.

Consultants we talked to generalize in two different directions. In some races, incumbents have been winning with static turnouts and new voters represent the danger of change. At best, they don't know the incumbents and owe them no allegiance. There's a flip to that. Say U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton comes to the state looking for votes and hires people in your area who have also worked for you in the past. A candidate in that situation can piggyback on the well-funded presidential campaign, leveraging get-out-the-vote and voter contact efforts. Rep. Doro Olivo, D-Rosenberg, has a tough reelection race against Ron Reynolds of Missouri City. She's Hispanic, and he's African-American. We've heard the argument that Barack Obama's presence on the ticket will help Black candidates. But Olivo's name was one of seven "leading Texas Democrats" named in Obama's announcement of grass-roots support in Texas.

If you're building a watch-list for the primaries — a basis for those post-primary autopsies — put Bailey and Olivo on it, and all the other Democratic primaries you can find. It's hell on the candidates, but it'll be good material for the political science nerds after this is over.

• Another theory holds that busy party primaries hurt moderate candidates. Reps. Pat Haggerty, R-El Paso, and Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth, might get votes from independents in their primaries but for the attraction of the Democratic presidential fight. If they're dependent on those independents for victory — that remains to be demonstrated — the active primary could hurt them.

• And the consultants. Republican consultants are getting cheated, relatively speaking. If you look at election turnouts over the last 30 years in Texas, you see fewer and fewer people voting in primaries, relative to the number of voting age people in the state (last year, the Voting Age Population, or VAP, was 16.6 million; 1.2 million of them voted in the primaries).

So the lists of regular Republicans and regular Democrats are pretty well worked. Suppose you could get an election that boosted the pool of voters. Take the full list of names, delete those on the old list, and you've got a lot of fresh leads for the next election cycle. That's the election cycle, by the way, that picks the legislators who'll redraw legislative and congressional political maps in 2011. Democrats, assuming they get a big turnout next month, will get lots of new leads. Republicans, without a fight to draw a crowd, won't.

Unlike the rest of this, those lists don't come available just where there are hot local races. The presidential draw to the polls — if it turns out to do here what it's done elsewhere — is statewide. New voters could be showing up in parts of Texas where the local races aren't even interesting.

Fort Worth's Jim Wright — former Speaker of the U.S. House and one of the state's "super delegates" to the Democratic National Convention — endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. That announcement came as the results from Super Tuesday were rolling in, making it apparent that the Democratic side of the presidential race is probably coming all the way to Texas in March.

• Now that the Republican nomination is all but locked up for U.S. Sen. John McCain, he's won the endorsement of U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-San Antonio. Cornyn said in his announcement that he didn't want to get involved in the primaries while they were still competitive. Now, though, he wants the GOP to settle in behind one candidate.

• It looks like the presidential candidates will have a Texas debate — probably at the end of the month — as they campaign for big seams of votes here and in Ohio that come available on March 4. That's one of two — the other's in Ohio — that Barack Obama has agreed to before the primaries here. Clinton's pushing for one a week.

• Former Rep. Ron Wilson loaned $30,000 to LaRhonda Torry, the Democrat challenging Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston. There's an old fight there; Coleman helped Rep. Alma Allen defeat Wilson in 2004. Two other notes: Former Judge Morris Overstreet contributed to Torry; and Torry's 30-day report didn't list a treasurer — an issue Coleman tried to use last month to knock her off the ballot.

• The gambling pot hasn't spilled, at least as of the last report. Texans for Economic Development PAC, funded by gaming interests around the state, has more than $1 million to spend but spent only $15,000 in January, according to their report. That money went to Rep. Kino Flores, D-Palmview.

• House Speaker Tom Craddick's contribution to a political action committee helping three friendly Democrats is the only reported money that's gone from him to a particular race. Reps. Flores, Kevin Bailey, and Aaron Peña got $50,000 each from Texas Jobs & Opportunity Build a Secure Future Inc. PAC, and Craddick, giving $250,000, was that fund's biggest funder. Another Craddick beneficiary — $85,000 worth — was the Stars Over Texas PAC, which hasn't given to candidates yet but has paid Dave Carney's Norway Hill Associates $122,500 for consulting and research.

• State Rep. Rafael Anchia, D-Dallas, endorsed Obama in the Democratic primary with this line: "I don't buy the argument that Latinos will not vote for an African-American candidate for president." Anchia says Texas Hispanics will identify with Obama's story.

• Former Texas Education Commissioner Mike Moses endorsed Jonathan Sibley, a Republican challenging Rep. Charles "Doc" Anderson, R-Waco. Sibley's been banging on the incumbent for voting for legislation allowing private school vouchers in 2005.

• Brian Thompson, an Anglo running against Rep. Dawnna Dukes, D-Austin, in a district that has traditionally been represented by African-American legislators, says he'll vote for Rep. Senfronia Thompson, D-Houston, for speaker if he's elected to the House.

• Former Sugar Land Mayor Dean Hrbacek — now one of 10 Republican candidates for Congress in CD-22 — made it onto Paul Harvey's national radio broadcast. And he's probably glad they refered to him only by title and current pursuit, and not by his name. Harvey closed a recent broadcast with this bit: "This politician is not just an empty suit. He has mailed campaign literature to area voters. However, the full-length photo of himself has been doctored a little. Includes a better-looking somebody else's body."

A Georgia doctor sued by a Fort Worth optometrist says the terms of the settlement were different than what got described to us. And he says the original demand for libel damages from a chat-room posting — stated in a letter from a lawyer who's also a legislative honcho — was for $1 million.

Tom Annunziato sued Dr. Richard Schulze Jr. and two others for libel for comments they posted on a private Internet chat room after seeing a picture of Annunziato — who's not a medical doctor — in surgical garb (see our original story on the lawsuits).

The first filings in those suits — Annunziato's lawyer was Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford — asked for $75,000 in damages from each doctor. And both Annunziato and King told us the doctors settled the suits by paying King's fees and apologizing for their remarks. Schulze says in a letter to us that the initial demands were higher than that, the settlements lower. He also raises some questions about where the case was tried (though his lawyer said in our earlier story that the judge they got was fair).

Schulze's letter:

I read with interest the recent article describing the controversy regarding Mr. Annunziato's place of residence when filing a lawsuit against three physicians. As one of the physicians who was sued, I would like to correct the record with regard to certain statements made by Mr. Annunziato and his plaintiff's attorney, Phil King, Esq.

Mr. Annunziato's original demand from me was for one million dollars (yes, $1,000,000.00). I was told by my attorneys that such a large demand would have required that the suit be heard by a federal court. The demand was subsequently reduced to $75 thousand dollars in order to make the suit eligible for local jurisdiction. Therefore, the issue of residence and jurisdiction was indeed important to the case.

I did not write a letter of apology to the plaintiff, nor was I required to be the court. I did not pay any settlement damages to the plaintiff, nor was I required to by the court. I did not pay any of Mr. Annunziato's legal fees, nor was I required to by the court.

In fact, the judge presiding in the matter dismissed Mr. Annunziato's lawsuit as a "non-suit."

I was advised by my attorneys to file a countersuit against Mr. Annunziato and Mr. King for frivolous litigation, but I have better things to do with my time. Your readers can judge for themselves by the amount of damages I paid (zero, zilch, nada) how damaging my comments were to Mr. Annunziato.

Sincerely,

Richard Schulze Jr., M.D.

Here's a copy of King's original demand letter, followed by the last filing in the court case (both supplied by Schulze):

This week, bloggers are buzzing about who's endorsing who in various political contests. They're also talking about the resignation of a Houston state senator, problems with the law and everyone's favorite presidential candidate from Lake Jackson. And then there are some miscellaneous posts about emoting.

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I've Got You, Babe

Austin Political Report sums up Gov. Rick Perry's track record for Presidential endorsements. PoliTex, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's blog, tackles Perry's history here. Meanwhile, Trail Blazers, the Dallas Morning News' blog, gives readers a glimpse into the press conference where Perry announces he's backing John McCain. According to Postcards, the Austin American Statesman's blog, it's all about the War on Terra. Texas Blue has audio, and so does Texas Politics, the Houston Chronicle's blog.

PoliTex manages to use the term "dog-and-pony show" in its take on the topic, a "snarky Austin political operative" has her wish granted when PoliTex creates this amusing chart, and musings wins Headline of the Week Award for a contribution titled "McCain's Campaign Doomed By Endorsement."

It's all about politics when Perry remains on the fence about the border wall, says Trail Blazers, but the Guv stands by his comments about Bush not being a fiscal conservative, and he doesn't think much of New York neither. Or Arnold Schwarzenegger, says Chronic, the Austin Chronicle's blog.

Is Perry really stumping for himself for President? wonders Trail Blazers. And is former U.S. Sen. Phil Gramm angling for the position of treasury secretary in a McCain cabinet? speculates PoliTex, which also reminds readers that Gramm's Georgia accent may be cool and all, but it ain't no Texas twang.

The latest round of IVR polling has McCain and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in Texas, say Professors-R-Squared. (Oh, and Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 10 points.) Texas Politics has the full text from IVR here. Texas Hispanic lawmakers, plus U.S. Rep. Gene Green, D-Houston, are supporting Clinton, says Trail Blazers. Also, they're endorsing Rick Noriega for U.S. Senate and Art Hall for Texas Railroad Commission, adds Postcards. (Here's a list of more endorsements for Noriega from Burnt Orange.) Meanwhile, state Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston, bucks the Clinton bandwagon in favor of Obama.

Meanwhile, PoliTex wonders why Hall is campaigning partly on "railroad safety" for a post that has nothing to do with railroads. (Perhaps Hall is taking a cue from former railroad commissioner John Sharp...). Burnt Orange takes a shot at Hall for his connections to Valero, and here's PoliTex's exposé of "another misinformed" candidate Mark Thompson.

In this Postcards entry, Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin, remains coy after his man Edwards withdraws from the race, but does say he thinks that the Democratic nominee could take Texas in November. In the same post, pastor Rick Scarborough trashes Romney and McCain in favor of Huckabee. And Jerry Patterson's staying out of the endorsement game... for now, says PoliTex.

PoliTex has a report card on lawmakers by conservative group Americans for Prosperity.

Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Edinburg, racks up endorsements from teachers, dentists, realtors and more teachers, while Amy L'Etoile garners Capitol Crowd's endorsement as Person of the Week.

When their powers combine, the University Democrats at UT-Austin and Central Austin Democrats form the Austin Progressive Coalition, with control of over 15,000 yellow doorhangers listing candidate endorsements. Burnt Orange is impressed.

Annex discovers a group called the Greater Harris County Democrats and smells something fishy after taking a look at their endorsements. Half-Empty hearts HD-27 Democrat Ron Reynolds, and People for Efficient Transportation PAC is backing Brian Thompson in HD-46, says muckraker.

Texas Kaos relays endorsements by the Austin Lesbian/Gay Political Caucus and the Austin Stonewall Democrats. Meanwhile, the Young Conservatives of Texas are backing Quico Canseco in CD-23, according to memoirs from a young conservative.

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Kyle's Field

Professors has a three-parter on the retirement of state Sen. Kyle Janek, R-Houston, here, here and here. Their latest word is that Janek's people are trying to "scrounge up a real challenger to [Gary] Polland," who they say is being supported by state Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, and Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt.

Says BurkaBlog: Janek's handpicked successor Spencer Tillman doesn't live in SD-17 (also in last week's TW, here). "This raises the dreadful prospect of District [17] being represented by Charlie Howard or Gary Polland, both of whom make Dan Patrick look like Thomas Jefferson... The Democrats could field Scott Hochberg... Hey Kyle, you might think about staying around a while. If you try to lobby after letting Howard or Polland in the Senate, your former colleagues will never throw you a vote."

The take from KVUE's Political Junkie: "I sure will miss Senator Janek's keen sense of style. I always found him to be an excellent dresser. His ties aren't as awesome as Senator Steve Ogden's, but they are generally pretty awesome." (Half-Empty's thoughts here.)

From Mike Falick's Blog: "Senator Janek and his staff have always been responsive, and in the last session, he authored and lead the charge to get Senate Bill 8 (the Steroid bill) passed. He has also been a champion of limitations on eminent domain and securing personal property rights."

Democrats feel they could have a shot in SD-17, says PoliTex. "Just sayin'" is Greg's Opinion. And Off the Kuff takes a look at past voting numbers here, while Chronic gives a quickie analysis of Janek's past and present and the future of SD-17.

Eye on Williamson says "the Texas GOP is often time now breaking up into [its] moderate and wing-nut branches in selecting candidates... " and that the jockeying in SD-17 could portend the 2010 GOP primary for governor.

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Texas Justice

Houston's Clear Thinkers believes that condemnation of Harris County D.A. Chuck Rosenthal has gotten out of hand, and predicts Rosenthal will dodge allegations of criminal contempt. Speaking of condemnation, here's some from Defending People: The Art and Science of Criminal Defense Trial Lawyering. Meanwhile, Life at the Harris County Criminal Justice Center tells lawyer Lloyd Kelley to quit with the "babe-in-the-woods" act, then proceeds to list the reasons why.

In another post, the anonymous blogger laments that Rosenthal shot down Assistant D.A. Kelly Siegler's idea to hire a media relations person for the D.A.'s office. And Tex Parte Blog has two items on Rosenthal's contempt hearing, one and two, and there are two more from KTRK's Houston Political Blog, three and four.

BurkaBlog slams the Texas Supremes in this post, which begins, "The Texas Supreme Court has become a public spectacle. It's bad enough that a majority of the Court performs as a wholly owned subsidiary of Texans for Lawsuit Reform... " and only gets worse from there.

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Run Paul, Run

Why does GOP Presidential candidate Ron Paul look so happy? Maybe, muses PoliTex, it's his gajillions in cash, or maybe it's because he's visiting Victoria, Texas. (How could anyone not be ecstatic over that? Redneck Mother, for one, got such a kick out of the area that it merited three posts, here, here and here.) Also from PoliTex, thoughts on if Paul will drop out after Super Tuesday, and if the Texas Presidential primary will be meaningful, or not. And this third Paul post from PoliTex, concerning the possibility of a brokered GOP convention.

In other news, Paul has filed a bill that would prevent federal funds from going to the Trans-Texas Corridor, a move sure to place him in muckraker's good graces. And on the home front, the county seat reports that Paul's CD-14 GOP opponent Chris Peden raised nearly $175,000 for his campaign — $144,000 of which came from the candidate himself.

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Hooked on Some Feelings

Annex is angry with Texas Supreme Court candidate Linda Yañez for not bestowing on bloggers the respect, admiration and homage they so rightfully deserve. An excerpt: "we base what we do in fact and upon hard evidence."

Political consultant Colin Strother arouses mixed emotions from Democratic insiders, says Chronic, and engages in a heated correspondence with Political Junkie over a Craigslist posting. McBlogger is amused by the whole thing.

Curious how things work? Has Mike Falick got a site for you! Pink Dome had a Pink Lady moment (and no it doesn't have anything to do with blending cabernet, merlot and syrah). Meanwhile, Vaqueros & Wonkeros has a video of a lobbyist and a candidate that's got El Paso politicos feeling chatty.

Ever had déjà vu? You will, after this post by Political Junkie.

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This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is spending the spring in the mid-Atlantic region. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

Texas government road builders put off $1.1 billion in projects. Where? Here's the list.Trying to save $1.1 billion, at least for a while, the Texas Department of Transportation put 54 projects in 28 counties on ice until the next fiscal year. They range in size from $346,000 to $181 million, and none of them will get going until September at the earliest. You can download the list here, and check our (very recent) archives for more info here and here.