A week before the start of early voting in the March 4 party primaries, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama in Texas by eight percentage points and John McCain leads Mike Huckabee here by four a statistical tie according to polling done for the Texas Credit Union League.
Full StoryEl Paso Republican Dee Margo's got a mailer out with a testimonial from his mother-in-law, who says she wrote because she's "frustrated that some are trying to paint Dee as something he is not." Here's the mailer from Margo, who's challenging Rep. Pat Haggerty, R-El Paso.
A week before the start of early voting in the March 4 party primaries, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama in Texas by eight percentage points and John McCain leads Mike Huckabee here by four — a statistical tie — according to polling done for the Texas Credit Union League.
The GOP race is in a statistical tie between McCain, at 45%, and Huckabee, at 41%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul was the favorite of 6%.
In the Democratic primary, Clinton, with 49%, leads Obama, with 41%.
Clinton has to attract attention from people who don't usually vote in primaries, while Obama's first job will be to get the attention of the voters who usually do, said David Beattie, president of Hamilton Campaigns. Democratic primary voters are more familiar with her, he said, while Obama has a job of persuading those who are undecided or with her to come to his side. That's a flip of what's happened elsewhere.
"He has some voters who don't know him," Beattie said. "Everybody knows her. It's a flip of Iowa: He wants to convince voters, and she wants to bring in new voters."
That said, he expects the Democratic primary to swell by 40% to 80% over normal primary levels, as it has in other states during this contest. He expects Hispanic voters — a key constituency for Clinton in Texas — to make up about 30 percent of the primary vote. African-American voters — a key for Obama here and elsewhere — make up about 18 percent in his turnout model (Anglos made up 50% of the Democratic respondents and 94% of the Republicans surveyed).
And both Beattie and his Republican counterpart, Glen Bolger, a partner with Public Opinion Strategies, expect to see some Republicans deciding to cross over and vote in the Democratic primary. Mostly to oppose Clinton.
The main difference between this and past Texas primaries, though, is the obvious one. The races aren't over. "There's a reason to vote," Bolger said.
Huckabee is holding onto social and religious conservatives and other hard-core Republicans, as he has in other states. McCain is doing best with moderate and female Republicans. Bolger sees the stakes as relatively low on the Republican side, since Texas delegates aren't portioned on a winner-take-all basis. "McCain can play for a tie and put it away elsewhere," he said.
Beattie, the Democrat, says the Republican numbers are interesting because there's still a tie. "You have a Republican nominee that has the nomination all but locked up but is still working to get voters. It's not the coalescing that you want to see."
Both pollsters found an absence of animosity among voters about their own candidates. Each of the four leaders have approval ratings above 70 percent from their primary voters. Clinton's voters like Obama, and vice-versa. McCain's like Huckabee, and his like McCain. They just prefer their choice over the other candidate. With the exception of the relatively small group of Republicans who'll cross the line to vote against Clinton, most of those polled are voting for someone and not against someone.
Oh, and both say they expect the electorate to move around — a lot, maybe — as the four candidates campaign in Texas.
"I think you're going to have a very interesting couple of weeks," Beattie said.
The Texas Credit Union League hired a Democratic and a Republican polling firm to run simultaneous surveys of Texas voters earlier this week (February 11-13). For the Democrats, it was Hamilton Campaigns; for the Republicans, Public Opinion Strategies. They each surveyed 400 primary voters — Democrats and Republicans, respectively. Each survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
Some highlights of the TCUL Poll:
• Top national issues for GOP voters are illegal immigration, terrorism and national security, and the economy and jobs. For Democrats, the top three issues are the economy and jobs, the situation in Iraq, and health care.
• Top state issues for Republicans are illegal immigration, property taxes, and education. The state issue lineup for Democrats is education, health care, and illegal immigration.
• McCain leads 49%-36% with voters who plan to vote early; Huckabee has a 45%-42% edge with voters who plan to wait until Election Day on March 4. McCain's strongest support comes from moderate/liberal Republicans and Anglo women. Huckabee's top groups are Anglo men without college degrees, "very conservative and strong GOP", and religious conservatives.
• Huckabee does best in East and West Texas; McCain in South, Central and the DFW areas.
• On the Democratic side, Obama is the 46%-42% favorite with voters who plan to vote early, while Clinton leads 51%-40% with those who plan to wait until Election Day.
• Clinton is strongest with Hispanics and older and Anglo women. Obama is strongest with African-Americans, independents, and men with college degrees.
• Clinton's strengths are in South and West Texas and, narrowly, in East Texas. Obama does best in Central Texas and Houston. And the candidates are locked in a tie in the DFW area.
• Most of the Democratic voters — 85% — say the country's on the wrong track. Republicans split on that question, with 46% saying the country is on the right track and 45% saying it's on the wrong track.
• Huckabee outdoes McCain with voters whose most important issues are terrorism and national security, and illegal immigration. McCain beats Huckabee with those who think the economy and jobs are the most important issues. Huckabee's voters say he shares their values. McCain's are split evenly across four areas: experience, values, electability, and is best able to deal with terrorism and the war in Iraq.
• Clinton's better off with voters who have the economy and jobs, and those concerned with Iraq. Voters with health care at the top of their issue list favor Obama. Those looking for experience like Clinton; those who want change prefer him.
• Just over two-thirds of the GOP voters say they approve or strongly approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as president. Democrats weren't asked that question. The GOP voters were also asked about their state officeholders. U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is known by virtually all of those voters and has favorable or strongly favorable ratings from 87% of them. The state's junior senator, John Cornyn, is known by 85% and viewed favorably by 60%. Gov. Rick Perry is known to virtually all and gets favorable ratings from 62%. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst: Name identification, 90%, favorables, 52%. Attorney General Greg Abbott: Name ID, 73%, favorable, 40%. And Comptroller Susan Combs: ID, 64%, favorables, 29%.
• And one for the sponsors of the poll: Texas voters apparently like credit unions. More than half of the Republicans and Democrats polled belong to those financial institutions, and more than 75% have a favorable impression of credit unions.
TCUL opened their cross tabs for public inspection. Below, you'll find the pollsters' memo, their summary, and then cross tabs for both the Democratic and Republican voters surveyed.
• TCUL Poll: Executive Summary and Results
• The top-lines of both polls, with questions
Gov. Rick Perry heads to El Paso next week to endorse Republican Dee Margo, who's challenging incumbent Republican Pat Haggerty in the primary.
It's highly unusual for a governor (or any statewide official) to run against incumbents from their own party, to say the least. Margo ran unsuccessfully for state Senate two years ago. But Haggerty barely fended off a challenge that year, and in that district, Margo showed well in his Senate bid. Haggerty has started a TV ad, partly in defense, that features him and his mom, Eleanor, who ends with a killer tag line aimed at Margo's recent move into HD-78. She says Margo was appointed by House Speaker Tom Craddick (the Margo camp denies that) and says the challenger moved into the district just for this race: "I have a carton of milk that's been in the district longer than he has."
• In the category of very local politics, Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton were the favorite presidential candidates in the New Boston straw poll, followed by John McCain and Barack Obama. Your scores, in raw votes: Huckabee, 111; Clinton, 65; McCain, 32; and Obama, 25. That straw poll — sponsored by the northeast Texas town's chamber of commerce — had the state's two Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate tied, with 63 votes each. Rick Noriega and Ray McMurrey can take this to the bank, though: incumbent Republican John Cornyn got 60 votes. The Democratic tilt held in the U.S. Rep. race, with Democrat Glenn Melancon getting 69 votes to Republican U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall's 66, and Democratic state Rep. Stephen Frost getting 147 votes against Republican challenger George Lavender, who got 55.
• Quico Canseco — one of two Republicans running for a shot at U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio — won an endorsement from Texas Right to Life.
• Bryan Daniel, one of four Republicans seeking the GOP nomination in HD-52 (currently held by Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock), won an endorsement from the Texas Farm Bureau's PAC. Whassup with that? He's a former USDA appointee.
• The Texas Parent PAC endorsed Joe Tison, the former Weatherford mayor who's challenging state Rep. Phil King in the Republican primary. That's no surprise; the group helped recruit Tison.
• Former Rep. Todd Hunter, a Democrat-turned-Republican who's challenging Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus, will get an assist from two GOP statewide officials. Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson and Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams will appear at a fundraiser on the USS Lexington next week. Gov. Rick Perry is cutting a video for that deal, promoting the challenger.
• Jonathan Sibley of Waco picked up an endorsement from former Lt. Gov. Bill Ratliff of Mount Pleasant. That's not in the district, but the campaign said Ratliff likes Sibley's positions on public education. He was also a legislative colleague of former Sen. David Sibley, the candidate's pop. Sibley the Younger is running against Rep. Charles "Doc" Anderson in the GOP primary.
Nearly a fifth of the House's incumbents have primary opponents next month. Who's in real danger?
The two Democrats trying to win your vote will debate in Texas next week. Obama's got TV ads running here (updated: so does Clinton). And Clinton is filling in the details of a Border swing this week.Barack Obama's campaign previewed TV ads they say they're running in Texas. Here's a link. It's focus is health care and Washington carping. The candidates agreed to a debate on Thursday, February 21, at a location to be determined in Austin. That's a Texas Democratic Party/Univision/CNN debate; those media outlets will provide both the questioners and the moderator. It'll air live on CNN at that evening and then later, in Spanish, on Univision. Hillary Clinton's trip along the border will start Tuesday evening at the Don Haskins Center at UTEP (that's the basketball arena), then proceed on Wednesday to McAllen, where she'll talk at the convention center, then to the Corpus Christi area, and finally in San Antonio, where she'll be at the gym at St. Mary's. That middle event won't be in Corpus but in nearby Robstown, and what was going to be a town hall has morphed into a rally.
A political action committee that bases its decision on support on who a candidate supports for speaker might be violating the state's laws against legislative bribery, according to the Texas Ethics Commission. The commission was answering a question about whether a PAC can ask House candidates who they support for speaker and whether they can base their decisions about support and funding on those answers. When we first wrote about it, they were looking at a draft that allowed sort of an "Ask, but Don't Tell" policy. But the commission revised that draft in their meeting this week. You can read the whole draft here; the summary follows:
Placing a candidate on notice that a general-purpose committee will base its decision on whether or not to support the candidate on the candidate’s responses to the specific questions listed above would constitute legislative bribery under Section 302.032 of the Government Code. Whether a candidate has been placed on such notice is a fact question and, as we have stated in previous opinions, an advisory opinion cannot resolve fact issues.
The legal value of an Ethics Advisory Opinion is to provide a defense to prosecution for activities that, in the opinion of the Ethics Commission, are not in violation of the laws under the jurisdiction of the Ethics Commission. We cannot provide that type of defense in this request because we cannot anticipate the different circumstances in which the specific questions listed above may be asked.
Texas laws restricting outside meddling in elections for the Speaker of the House are unconstitutional, according to a federal lawsuit filed by an unlikely coalition of political righties and lefties.They say the law designed to keep outsiders from spending money to influence those elections and to lobby and debate with House members who elect their leader every two years prevents Texans from voicing their own opinions. The law effectively blocks voters and groups from voicing their views on a major bit of legislative business: Who runs the show. That, the suit says, is a violation of four rights protected in the U.S. Constitution: speech, association, petition, and equal protection. They're attacking what's known as the Speaker Statute and its provisions against spending money "to aid or defeat the election of a speaker candidate" or of spending more than $100 for the "cost of correspondence" for that purpose. You don't generally find these groups on the same side of the table: Free Market Foundation, American Civil Liberties Union of Texas, Texas Eagle Forum PAC, Kelly Shackleford, and David Broiles. The two individuals are, respectively, the president and chief counsel of the Free Market Foundation, and the legal vice president of the ACLU. They're suing the Texas Ethics Commission, its members and executive director, and Collin County District Attorney John Roach (named because he's Shackleford's home DA and as representative of all of the state's district and county prosecutors). The law has apparently never been challenged or used to prosecute anyone in the course of the half-dozen races for speaker that have taken place while it's been in effect. Even so, the groups say, the 35-year-old law has a birth defect. Read literally, they say, it makes it a crime to spend even the smallest amount of money in an effort to affect a speaker's race. Newspapers regularly rail for and against House Speaker Tom Craddick, and his reelection is a vividly argued matter on the Internet, but the groups say the law has a chilling effect. "Because it hasn't been enforced doesn't mean it won't be," said Lisa Graybill with the ACLU. She said it's impossible to know who has remained silent for fear of violating the law. Shackleford didn't name names, but said he knows of groups that want to jump into the speaker debate who have been advised against it by their lawyers. They say the law prohibits anyone from spending any money to lobby for, educate, or campaign on the issue of how members should vote for speaker. They'll ask U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks of Austin for an injunction preventing its enforcement in the March 4 primaries and in the early voting leading up to Election Day.
The Republicans of CD-22 agree on one thing — one of them should oust Democratic Congressman Nick Lampson. They're battling over who gets to try.
Voters have their choice of ten Republicans in the primary. The district has a Republican history in past elections, and the crowded field is a measure of the GOP's feeling that this seat is rightly theirs. Former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom Delay held the seat for 22 years. Lampson, the only Democrat in this year's race, won in 2006 after DeLay resigned. With the number of challengers, there is a high chance of a runoff.
"No one's going to walk away with this on March 4th," says candidate Pete Olson. His says his campaign has the financial resources — just over $400,000 — to be one of the two who makes the runoff. "I wouldn't trade our position with anybody," Olson says of his campaign. Olson was an assistant to former Sen. Phil Gramm and chief of staff for Sen. John Cornyn, and both have endorsed him. (Along with big-name support, Olson's the only candidate with a MySpace page, for what that's worth. His heroes, it says there, include his parents and the founding fathers.)
Not everyone seems too bothered by having nine opponents. But ten is definitely a crowd.
"It would be easier to focus on one or two opponents," says Jim Squier, a longtime Harris County district court judge.
"I think it's great because it gives the people in 22 a choice," says candidate Shelley Sekula Gibbs. She's leads the money race with close to $900,000 — including almost $500,000 she loaned her campaign. The Houston dermatologist served the last few weeks of Delay's term after Gov. Rick Perry called a special election in 2006. She was a write-in candidate on the general election ballot that year and lost to Lampson by about 10,000 votes. Sekula Gibbs contends she would be the incumbent if she hadn't been a write-in.
Depending on whether you count Sekula Gibbs' short stint, Olson's the only one with Washington experience. That doesn't scare another candidate, State Rep. Robert Talton of Pasadena. He's got about $200,000, putting him in the ranks with the two former mayors, John Manlove of Pasadena and Dean Hrbacek of Sugar Land.
"People are looking for somebody who isn't 'Washington as usual,'" Talton says. "You can see it in the presidential races, They don't like the idea that Washington's trying to run everything."
A Houston political blogger who calls himself the Anticorruption Republican (he asked us to leave his real name out because he works in city government) says he's just happy to vote for someone other than DeLay. "I haven't voted for the guy since 1996. People are excited for this election because they can actually vote for the Republican."
The candidates held a forum Tuesday night. "It felt like a family reunion — with a couple of siblings having it out" says candidate Brian Klock. He says Olson and Hrbacek were the rowdy ones. Klock's a military man and says he doesn't want to be lumped in with the professional politicians.
Kevyn Bazzy is working the same game. The former military intelligence officer says "The people without a lot of experience are being catapulted... this seat can be taken by someone like myself, it's one of those rare years in politics."
Some people say Lampson's still got a shot; Republican candidate Cynthia Dunbar says "he has a very strong base in the district." She says the other candidates probably believe whoever wins the primary wins in November, and that she's the only candidate that can effectively run against Lampson.
"Nick Lampson is nobody's fool," Klock says. "Anyone who thinks they're getting through this with a layup is wrong."
Carol Trujillo with the Fort Bend County Democrats is more than happy to see a long list of Republicans. "It shows they don't have a clear favorite, it's a good thing," she says. "The day after he [Lampson] was elected, they were predicting his demise, but he has been a representative to all the people of 22, not just the Democrats." She says Lampson is more visible than Delay was. He's raised just a little more than Sekula Gibbs, but with no debt, and he's got about $715,000 in his campaign accounts, compared to her $435,000.
This race has a lot of candidates and voters thinking and working pretty hard, but some just find it all a little funny.
"We've got a five-on-five basketball team, which works out well for me because I think I'm the tallest of the candidates," says Olson, who's 6'3".
Fort Bend County Democrat Ann Harper says, "For a while, we kept joking that it was Snow White and the Seven Dwarves."
— by Karie Meltzer
Rep. Pat Haggerty, R-El Paso, started a flight of TV ads featuring his mother. And his mother takes a swipe at Republican Dee Margo for moving into the district to challenge the incumbent.This is Haggerty's first ad. Margo's ads are already up and running.
Former President Bill Clinton will make a swing through East Texas on Friday, stopping (tentatively) in Texarkana, Longview, Tyler, Nacogdoches, and Lufkin.
And the candidate herself will make another stop in McAllen next week. The expectations for that one are high, if vague: They hope for 25,000 to 50,000 people.
• Most people can't go to this even if they want to, but the Texas debate between the two Democratic candidates will be at the University of Texas Recreational Sports Center next week, a room that holds about 3,000 people. The public's not invited, although the Texas Democratic Party is giving away 100 tickets. The party's also taking the opportunity to make this a fundraiser, with official watch parties that run $50 per person. At the Austin version, they don't promise an appearance by the candidates, but say they've been invited to attend before or after the debate. Or you can stay home, put on your house shoes and watch for free. It'll be televised live on CNN and later that evening on Univision.
• Both of the Democrats are now up and running — in the media sense — in Texas. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are running regular television, and both have Spanish-language ads running on Texas radio stations.
• Add State Reps. Trey Martinez Fischer, D-San Antonio, and Ana Hernandez, D-Houston, to the list of Obama endorsers. And U.S. Rep. Charlie Gonzalez, D-San Antonio. And Rep. Jim Dunnam of Waco, leader of the House Democratic Caucus.
• Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, aligned with Clinton. Van de Putte, who's got an official role at the Democratic National Convention this year, first checked with party officials to make sure her endorsement wouldn't interfere with that gig. It doesn't, and she's with Hillary.
• Van de Putte's former mayor, Ed Garza of San Antonio, will be on the other side. He endorsed Obama.
• U.S. Rep. and presidential candidate Ron Paul plans to stop at the University of Texas at Austin in a week; though he's said he needs to keep an eye on his reelection bid, he's also trolling for votes for the national office. Organizers are trying to attract 10,000 people for a Saturday event.
• New Jersey? Barack Obama's campaign says Newark Mayor Cory Booker will head the candidate's efforts in Austin, Texas. He'll open the campaign's Texas headquarters and then go on a door-to-door effort with volunteers.
• Clinton opens her headquarters a few miles away an hour later. The Clinton co-chair in charge? United Farm Workers Co-Founder Dolores Huerta, who's from California.
Lobbyist Reggie Bashur dropped a gaming client, citing negative ads that are running against incumbent Republicans. Bashur says he represented the Texas Horseman's Partnership, which was, in turn, a member of Texans for Economic Development. He lobbied for that second group during the last session, but says that relationship ended with the session in June. Now, Texans for Economic Development is running ads against Reps. Betty Brown, R-Terrell, Phil King, R-Weatherford, and Nathan Macias, R-Bulverde. As a result, Bashur says, he's ending his deal with the horsemen. "I just don't think it's right to attack Republicans like that," he says. And Bashur denies rumors of his involvement that began when the ads did. "I didn't know they were doing this, and I wasn't in on the planning."
Brown's response to the gambling ad is an ad of her own, starting with three little pictures of the ad against her lined up in a row, with other graphics that turn it into the screen of a video lottery terminal. Clever, huh? The announcer says, "Big gambling interests are running this false attack ad against Betty Brown. Don't believe it..."
Democrats on Clinton's side are forming a third-party political action committee to boost their candidate's chances here and elsewhere.
File this under Things to Watch For: One of The Atlantic's political blogs has its eye on efforts to fund a 527 committee that would promote Hillary Clinton while tearing down Barack Obama in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Those are the next big states on the primary circuit, and Clinton is trying to break a 12-state winning streak by the former underdog from Chicago.
Texas started the presidential primary season as a wallflower. Now it's the star everyone wants to dance with.
Barack Obama began his personal push for Texas votes this week, with rallies in San Antonio and Houston yesterday, Dallas today, the debate in Austin tomorrow, events on Friday in Edinburg, Corpus Christi, and Austin, and a stop in El Paso on Saturday. U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Massachusetts, is campaigning for Obama in Corpus Christi, Edinburg, and Laredo today, then in San Marcos and San Antonio tomorrow. All but one of those is a university stop.
Hillary Clinton is in Hidalgo and Brownsville today and will make an appearance in Laredo tomorrow before coming to Austin for the debate tomorrow night. She ends the week with stops in Dallas and Fort Worth before leaving for Ohio, the other big state on the table on March 4. Former President Bill Clinton, meanwhile, has stops in Galveston, Beaumont, Victoria, and Houston today; tomorrow, he'll campaign for his wife in Odessa, San Angelo, and San Antonio (where he'll do a post-debate event). On Saturday, the former president will stop in Corpus Christi, Killeen, and El Paso. And their daughter, Chelsea Clinton, is on the road here, too, stopping today in Richardson, Arlington, and Denton (all Republican spots, but more importantly, college towns). She'll hit Pasadena and Austin tomorrow, and on Friday, will headline events in San Marcos, San Antonio, and El Paso.
Both candidates will appear after the debate at an Austin debate watching party sponsored by the Texas Democratic Party. That sold out quick. The Democrats gave away just 100 seats in the debate to the public — more than 40,000 people applied. And the debate party had a maximum load of 1,000, each paying $50 to watch the candidates on TV. It sold out just after it was clear that both Clinton and Obama would make appearances there.
The air war is fully underway.
Obama's campaign is up with Spanish-language TV ads in selected markets (Houston, San Antonio, Harlingen-McAllen, Corpus Christi and Laredo). They're running statewide radio ads aimed at Black voters. Another is aimed at young voters and voters-to-be.
Not all of the ads are targeted. He's got a TV ad called "Enough" that says companies moving jobs overseas shouldn't get tax breaks, that those breaks should go to companies investing in the U.S. (Whaddya wanna bet that's running in Ohio, too?) Another, called "Chances I Had" promotes education. There's a general feel-good ad with a full dose of Obama's rhetoric and a call for change in Washington.
Clinton's also has her air force engaged. One ad — running in English and in Spanish, features former San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros, who was also a member of Bill Clinton's cabinet. The pitch is simple: "Vote for our friend Hillary today, and we’ll all have a better life." Another TV spot features her support for veterans and their benefits.
The ground war is underway, too.
Mundane stuff wins elections, if not headlines, and both campaigns are busy training people who will, in various ways, try to drag their voters to the polls. They're also training precinct types who'll show up after the primaries to vote in the caucuses that pick some of the state's delegates. That's the real reason behind the campaigns opening offices all over the state. They're building networks, in some cases, where Democratic networks have atrophied. The Obama camp says they've trained 4,000 folks across the state (all in one weekend, they say). And they claim to have 38,000 interested Texans signed up to support their guy via their website.
And the campaigns are touting endorsements, hoping to prove their alliances with people and institutions voters already like.
Obama picked up an endorsement from the United Food & Commercial Workers Union, and the campaign will try to turn that into part of its ground organization. He's got these newspapers, too, though the power of editorial endorsements has diminished in recent years: Austin American-Statesman, Corpus Christi Caller-Times, The Dallas Morning News, El Paso Times, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Houston Chronicle, and San Antonio Express-News. And he won the support of U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco; that's a two-fer, since Edwards is also a superdelegate. He also got former Denver Mayor and Clinton Administration Energy Secretary Federico Peña's endorsement. Peña was born in Laredo and reared in Brownsville.
Clinton picked up an endorsement from Bob Gammage, the former congressman and Texas Supreme Court justice who lost 2006's Democratic gubernatorial primary to Chris Bell. A day later, she got Bell's endorsement, too. And she got nods from former U.S. Rep. and Texas Attorney General Jim Mattox of Dripping Springs, former U.S. Rep. Jim Chapman of Sulphur Springs, and former state Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos of Austin. Barrientos retired. Mattox lost races for governor and U.S. Senate before quitting electoral politics, and Chapman lost a bid for Senate before leaving politics and becoming a lobbyist.
She nearly swept the official persons endorsement list in South Texas, grabbing state, county, and local officials all along the Texas-Mexico border. Clinton doesn't have everyone, but she's got almost everyone who holds office and has made an endorsement.
The Republicans are way down here at the bottom of the story because they're not campaigning in Texas like the Democrats are. That said, Mike Huckabee made stops in Plano and Houston, and John McCain came to Houston to accept an endorsement from former President George H.W. Bush.
Texans for Lawsuit Reform was legally out of business for a minute there, having lost its papers of incorporation for not making a mandatory routine filing with the Secretary of State.Embarrassing, but not fatal. The tort reformers changed their address, according to an SOS spokesman, and didn't get the form they were supposed to fill out. After they were outed — a rival group sent out a press release — they filed their reports and got good with the state. The legal blooper didn't involve the group's political action committee or its tax-exempt research foundation, each of which also fly the TLR flag.
Texans for Economic Development — a political action committee funded by gaming interests — backs up its TV hits on three incumbent Republicans with mail.The targets are Reps. Betty Brown of Terrell, Phil King of Weatherford, and Nathan Macias of Bulverde. The ads:
A third-party political committee that's promoting Hillary Clinton in primary states has its first ads up... in Ohio.The first effort from the "American Leadership Project" promotes Clinton without taking real swats at Barack Obama (our headline comes from the 527 committee that walloped Democrat John Kerry four years ago).
Quick take on the presidential debate in Austin: Hillary Clinton didn't halt or reverse Barack Obama's momentum, and that's what she needed to do.She had more good moments, probably, than he did (notably her answer to a question about hard moments in her life). But nothing in the Austin debate seemed strong enough to change the relative positions or perceptions of the two candidates. No real change in climate is good for Obama, who's on a winning streak, and bad for Clinton, who needs a couple of wins to remain in contention. The hot commodity in the Weird Politics market is the way Texas Democrats choose their delegates, and there's no denying that this is a strange thing in a democracy. But it might not matter. A month ago, the political mob congregated around the idea that the Democrats would surely be done on Super Tuesday, but that Texas and Ohio could decide the GOP race for president. That's just a current reminder of the wisdom of that particular crowd. One story idea of the moment, now, is that one candidate might win the popular vote in Texas while the other wins more delegates. Or that superdelegates will finally be called upon to decide the whole thing, in line with or in spite of the popular vote. Maybe. It's possible. But it's more likely that the three big states ahead — the one we're in, Ohio, and Pennsylvania — will make it clear to the candidates and everyone else who the nominee will be. That's the usual way of things: When the going gets weird in politics, it usually snaps back to normal pretty quickly. There's not enough money in politics to carry two national Democratic candidates all the way to Denver, not in full battle dress. The voters will give a signal. The political financiers, who provide the fuel for these things, will make some decisions. One campaign will flourish and the other will dry up. It happens fast, too. Look at John McCain. Dead last to last man standing in a matter of weeks. Obama's wave could carry him to the nomination. Clinton could stage a comeback, breaking his win streak and forcing the smart money back to where it started — where it was back when McCain was an impossibility. But she didn't do it in Thursday night's Texas debate, and voters are already voting, in big numbers. If her lead is intact — the polls are mixed on that point, though she had an eight-point margin a week ago — it's no big deal. But if the Obama surge in Texas is reality and not hype, it's trouble.
These ratings are based on our reporting of the various races. They're not meant to be predictions of the outcomes, but assessments of the competitiveness of each race. It's entirely possible that incumbents in the red zone will win easily, and that those in the yellow will get involuntary retirements on March 4. But this is where the big fights are.
In which we resort to old-style, triple-dot journalism to clear the room of paper and email and sticky notes and notebooks, fill the trash cans, and put this issue to bed...
In the deluge of "He/She won't debate me" notes that always pile up in the last two weeks of a campaign comes a gem from Chris Peden that we might otherwise have missed. Peden's a Republican challenging U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Surfside, in CD-14. He's been busy while Paul's been out, and he got a big endorsement: The Victoria Advocate likes the challenger over the incumbent... Gov. Rick Perry flew to El Paso to endorse Republican Dee Margo, an event that wouldn't be news except that Margo is running against a Republican incumbent, Rep. Pat Haggerty. Haggerty's response, via The El Paso Times: "I hope that this is as successful as the (Rudy) Giuliani endorsement." Haggerty is up with radio ads that attack Margo for moving into the district to run, and slam him as a political recruit of House Speaker Tom Craddick and also for contributions he made to U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy 25 years ago. Margo TV spanks Haggerty for supporting nursing home and gasoline tax increases. Dueling polls in that district have Margo ahead 43%-31% (El Paso Times/News Channel 9, 2/11-12, +/-3%), or behind 42%-48% (Haggerty campaign tracking poll, no details provided)... Larry Joe Doherty, one of two Democrats vying for a shot at U.S. Rep. Mike McCaul, R-Austin, says he raised $66,975 during the first six weeks of the year; they have about $100,000 on hand. Dan Grant, the other Democrat in that primary, has a TV ad running that calls Doherty a TV judge (true) and also features the late Anna Nicole Smith. Politics isn't boring... Rep. Dawnna Dukes, D-Austin, got hit with news reports of late business tax payments and filings and late payments (since made current) on her car. Democratic challenger Brian Thompson rolled that, some missed votes while she was in Paris and Vegas, and her past support for Republican Speaker Tom Craddick into a very busy TV ad now running. Another tidbit from that contest: She promised last year — when we wrote about it — that she'd remedy campaign finance filings that don't detail expenses paid on her credit card. Those amended records won't be filed before voters go to the polls... That Texas Credit Union League poll we covered last week had a tidbit we missed: Clinton lead Obama in Texas 52%-35% in rural areas and small cities. In urban and suburban areas, Obama was in front 50%-37%... The special election in HD-119 — that's the spot emptied when Rep. Robert Puente, D-San Antonio, retired early — will be on May 10. Only one candidate, Roland Gutierrez, is on the ballot for the full term that starts next January, but the door's open until March 4 for anyone who wants it from May to the end of the year... Texans for Lawsuit Reform endorsed a lawyer accused of forum shopping? They sent folks to Aledo to give Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford, the group's Civil Justice Leadership Award... King's opponent, former Weatherford Mayor Joe Tison, capitalizes on third-party ads by calling on voters to send copies of their utility bills to King. The ads in question blame King — chairman of the House Committee on Regulated Industries — for increases in electric bills... U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega has a TV ad touting his military and legislative experience; it debuted during the presidential debates, while some number of Democrats were watching TV... After dropping its inquiry into the continued public service of Harris County District Attorney Chuck Rosenthal, who stepped down, Attorney General Greg Abbott's office sent a letter to his interim replacement, offering "assistance with any further potential action involving Charles A. Rosenthal Jr." Not over yet... Jonathan Sibley says in a letter to Craddick — our version was embedded in a press release — that he's decided not to vote for the speaker's reelection if Sibley makes it to the House. That's what it says, but that's not its purpose: It's an attack on Rep. Charles "Doc" Anderson, R-Waco, who Sibley accuses of supporting Craddick at the expense of the district... Brian Klock, one of the GOP multitude running in CD-22, plans to unveil a billboard showing a view, through crosshairs, of the Houston Ship Channel with the downtown skyline in flames behind it. His tagline: "The Threat is Real." Houston builder Bob Perry of Swift Boat fame (he was the main financier) is scheduled to appear with him...
An Austin judge ordered a gambling industry PAC out of a primary race, saying the group illegally accepted corporate money.
The order blocks Texans for Economic Development from running ads or sending mail to voters in HD-73, where Rep. Nathan Macias, R-Bulverde, faces a serious challenge. And Macias' primary opponent — former New Braunfels Mayor Doug Miller — is blocked from spending any campaign money unless he's shown the court in writing that it didn't come from that PAC.
In the order, Judge Orlinda Naranjo of Austin said TEDPAC violated election law by taking unauthorized contributions from corporations and used that money to pay for political ads. "Defendants, other entities, their agents and representatives are immediately restrained and enjoined from purchasing ad time, broadcasting, disseminating direct mail advertisements, publishing in any medium (whether through paid advertising or free internet distribution) the advertisement at issue (featuring the Ostrich with its head in the sand) or any other statements, pictures, images, or other media or information that relates to the statements made concerning Nathan Macias," she said in her order.
"Candidate Doug Miller and his campaign or anyone acting on their behalf or at their direction is enjoined from receiving, spending or pledging any funds received from defendant TEDPAC for campaign related events, including but not limited to, administrative expenses, campaign expenses, print advertising, television advertising, direct mail or any other campaign related expense," she wrote.
Craig Murphy, a consultant to Miller's campaign, said there's no TEDPAC money in their treasury. "We have accepted no contributions from them... and have no intention of accepting any contributions from them," he said. "This is between them and Nathan Macias."
No TEDPAC money was reported in Miller's last report, and Murphy said the campaign hasn't accepted any contributions from the PAC since then, either.
The judge ordered Miller and TEDPAC to come to court on March 6 — that's two days after the primary — to tell her why the TRO shouldn't be in force.
The order apparently doesn't apply to parallel campaigns in two other House districts, where the incumbents are Reps. Betty Brown and Phil King.
Earlier this week, another group — Baptist General Convention of Texas Christian Life Commission — filed a complaint with the Texas Ethics Commission, saying TEDPAC improperly accepted contributions from corporations. The PAC's treasurer, Tommy Azopardi said at the time that amended campaign reports remedied that problem. But Macias argued that the PAC wasn't allowed to take money at all from those corporations — only in-kind contributions.
Politically, that could be an important win for Macias, in a couple of ways. First, it forces his enemies to go dark for at least a weekend during the last ten days of the campaign and while people are voting early. Second, it gives him ammunition to fire back at TEDPAC and at Miller.
Alberto "Beto" Cardenas Jr. is coming back to Texas for a job with Vinson & Elkins in Houston. He was the Texas Tech guy in Washington, D.C. and most recently worked for U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
Ralph Duggins, senior partner at Cantey Hanger in Fort Worth, is the newest addition to the Texas Parks & Wildlife Commission. Gov. Rick Perry appointed him to replace Philip Montgomery of Dallas.
Deaths: Former Rep. Arves Jones, R-El Paso, who served three terms in the 1980s and later won a spot on the El Paso City Council, of heart disease. He was 82.
Tracking endorsements on the way to the primaries...Put U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison on the John McCain bandwagon. State Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin, endorses Barack Obama. So does state Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine. Add former U.S. Rep. Charlie Stenholm, D-Abilene, to Team Clinton. He was a member of Congress for 26 years before becoming a lobbyist; while in the House, he was a founding member of the Blue Dog Caucus, a group of conservative Democrats there.
A long-awaited book on Texas political legend Bob Bullock is finally available. Bob Bullock: God Bless Texas, by Dave McNeely and Jim Henderson, is being published by the University of Texas Press. McNeely, who still writes a column for a number of Texas newspapers, is the dean of the Capitol Press Corps in Austin. Henderson is now a freelancer who worked at the Houston Chronicle and the Dallas Times Herald.
Out: Texas Youth Commission executive director Demitria Pope, forced to resign by that beleaguered agency's conservator. No replacement has been named. Pope, who compounded the controversies at TYC with an expensive office remodeling and a decision to use pepper spray to control inmates, said she'd stay until and unless she was forced out.
Pat Oxford moves into the chairmanship of Bracewell & Giuliani — a newly created position — while Mark Evans takes over as managing partner of the Houston-based firm. Oxford was chairman of Rudy Giuliani's presidential bid and helped bring the former New York Mayor into the law firm.
Reporter-turned-political consultant Mark Sanders is running for office. He says he's after one of three spots on the Eustace City Council (it's in northeast Texas, between Athens and Mabank). And one of his five goals if he's elected is to get the mayor to resign. He also wants to fill potholes and give a 30 percent raise to police officers. Sanders, who worked for the last two challengers to Gov. Rick Perry (Democrat Tony Sanchez and Republican-turned-independent Carole Keeton Strayhorn), is now raising horses. And running for office.
Comptroller Susan Combs named Sara Whitley her "senior advisor" and says she'll be the agency's liaison with business and advocacy leaders and groups. Whitley's been working for Combs for the last seven years.
Gov. Rick Perry appointed:
• Former congressional candidate and Public Utility Commissioner Becky Armendariz Klein of San Antonio as presiding officer of the Lower Colorado River Authority's board of director. Perry also added Tim Timmerman, an Austin real estate developer, to that board.
• Kelly Edward Doster of Frisco, founder and COO of Network Traffic Controllers Inc. and a former city councilman, to the board of the Texas Small Business Industrial Development Corp.
• Brazos County Tax Assessor-Collector Kristeen Roe of Bryan as presiding officer of the state's Board of Tax Professional Examiners. He also named three new board members: James Childers of Canyon, chief appraiser of the Potter-Randall Appraisal District; P.H. "Fourth" Coates IV of Medina, chief appraiser of the Kerr Central Appraisal District; and Denton County Tax Assessor-Collector Steven Mossman of Flower Mound.
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst named Sen. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo, head of the Senate Subcommittee on Higher Education Finance, and named Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Property Tax Appraisal and Revenue Caps.
House Speaker Tom Craddick named three to the Texas Youth Commission Advisory Board: Grayson County District Attorney Joseph Brown of Sherman, Larry Carroll of Midland, who runs the Permian Basin Community Centers for Mental Health and Retardation, and Douglas Matthews, a Vernon veterinarian. That nine-member board advises the agency's conservator.
State Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin, went on MSNBC's on behalf of Barack Obama and got his ears pinned back. The question: Can you list your candidate's legislative accomplishments?Here's the video: After everybody and their dog got a look at the video (these things go around fast), Watson posted a mea culpa on his campaign website:
MSNBC and Me. February 20, 2008 So . . . That really happened. On Tuesday night, after an important and historic victory in the Wisconsin Presidential Primary by Senator Barack Obama, I appeared on the MSNBC post-election program. “Hardball” host Chris Matthews (who is, it turns out, as ferocious as they say), began grilling me on Senator Obama’s legislative record. And my mind went blank. I expected to be asked about the primary that night, or the big one coming up in Texas on March 4, or just about anything else in the news. When the subject changed so emphatically, I reached for information that millions of my fellow Obama supporters could recite by heart, and I couldn’t summon it. My most unfortunate gaffe is not, in any way, a comment on Senator Obama, his substantial record, or the great opportunity we all share to elect him President of the United States. Had I not lost my mind, here are the accomplishments I would have mentioned: * Senator Obama’s fight for universal children’s health care in Illinois. * His success bringing Republicans and Democrats together (a huge selling point for me in general) on bills such as the one in Illinois requiring police interrogations and confessions to be videotaped. * His leadership on ethics reform in Washington (the bill that lobbyists and special interests are complaining about right now has his name on it). * His bill to make the federal budget far more transparent and accessible to Americans via the Internet – we could use that openness in Texas. * And his vital work with Republicans to lock down nuclear weapons around the world. Of course, it would have helped to remember all of this last night. I encourage anyone who wants to know more (especially Mr. Matthews) to log onto texas.barackobama.com. In the meantime, let’s not lose focus on what’s important in this election. It’s not my stunning televised defeat in “Stump the Chump.” Thankfully, it has nothing at all to do with me. What’s important is the direction our country is headed. What’s important are the priorities, methods, and, yes, accomplishments of those seeking the highest office in the country. Senator Obama has a vision for this nation, and we would be fortunate to fulfill it. He has the commitment to work with everyone from across the political and demographic spectrum to achieve it. And he has the strength to defend us, our security, and our values against all who will challenge them. But most of all, he has the record to prove that all of this is possible. It’s something no one should forget. . . . Even though I did. . . . On national television.
There really is a website for everything. To get a list of what the state's superdelegates are doing, check out this page on SourceWatch. They've got lists working for every state.