The early voting tsunami is great for political scientists, but it sure makes elected and wanna-be-elected officials nervous. It's big, but it's impossible right now to know who's voting and how, whether the voters are new, whether Republicans are voting in the Democratic primary, whatever. It's a big, fat question mark. For incumbents, that sort of uncertainty is maddening.
Full StoryThis full list of contestants, subject to court and other eligibility fights... The two major parties keep their own lists — Republican and Democratic — and this is our consolidation of the two, so you can see who's running from both parties and what the district's recent history is. (Libertarians choose their candidates differently and will have their lists available later in the year. Their unofficial list is online, here.) There's a date and time stamp at the top of each chart so you can tell what version you've got. And if you're reading this on the Internet, you'll want to refresh your screen when you return so the latest charts will appear.
Here's the lineup:
This week, the Texas netwaves are bursting with Presidential primary persiflage. Bloggers are also squawking about the resignation of Harris County's District Attorney, talking about stuff going down out West and having conversations with political candidates. Wrapping it up: goulash.
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Prez Dispensing
To keep abreast of the latest Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama debate news, check out UT's LBJ blog. Meanwhile, Trail Blazers, the Dallas Morning News's blog, explains that Obama didn't want to debate in Houston for two reasons: Big Oil, and Clinton.
In Texas, 13 superdelegates are for Clinton; four are for Obama; and, 16 are up for grabs, according to Burnt Orange Report. Those who want to kick superdelegates out of the nomination process, sign this petition, via Trail Blazers.
Clinton's and Obama's commercials are up on Burnt Orange. These are the first presidential primary TV ads in Texas, "since, when, 1976?" PinkDome wonders. For the Español-impaired, the English translation of Clinton's Spanish-language ad, from Political Junkie — but if you want to know the meaning of Obama's Spanish ad, you're gonna have to Babel Fish it.
Here's news on how Clinton and Obama are targeting Hispanic voters, from Texas Observer Blog. Meanwhile, Postcards from the Lege, the Austin American-Statesman's blog, reports that Obama has a new Hispanic weapon, Gilberto Ocañas. And Political Junkie did lunch — er, field research — in East Austin to glean insight into the minds of Hispanic voters. Plus, here's her report on Obama staffers in Austin's Howard Johnson, the hotel, not the breakfast place.
Something finally happened in Amarillo! Luckily, Panhandle Truth Squad is on the scene to cover Mr. Clinton's rally out there. Now, if Obama would only make an appearance, too... Meanwhile, Observer has the 411 on Mrs. Clinton's rally in San Antonio.
Chronic, the Austin Chronicle's blog, sums up Austin endorsements thus far. Texas-Democrats relays a Clinton campaign message flaunting her Valley backers. And Trail Blazers has the down-low in Dallas, while Burnt Orange rounds up campaign activity in Tarrant County.
Charlie Stenholm is in with Clinton, says Greg's Opinion, noting "that a former Congressman who voted to impeach Bill [Clinton] is now endorsing Hillary." Here's Trail Blazers' take, and here's a letter from a former John Edwards staffer in support of Obama, on Burnt Orange.
Burnt Orange has bought into Obama's message of "hope" and "change" (whatever that means) and is officially on the Illinois senator's bandwagon. Meanwhile, Capitol Annex is endorsing Clinton because of her "tenacity and determination;" Greg's Opinion likes Clinton because of "perseverance;" and, McBlogger's backing Clinton because of "leadership style and tenacity," Breaking from this pattern of vagueness, musings endorses Clinton because of her gender and "her work on education."
The Obama campaign is utilizing a tactic to win over voters who like Michelle Obama and tape-recorded telephone messages, according to Postcards from the Lege, while KVUE's Political Junkie has photos of the Austin campaign offices for Clinton and Obama. And Trail Blazers takes a look at which candidates M$M (mainstream media) individuals are giving money to.
Burnt Orange examines what Texas means for each Democratic campaign and says the winner of the Democracy for Texas poll, by more than 45 points, is Obama. Meanwhile, Texas Kaos puts on the ol' hard hat, proceeds to construct some castles in the air and predicts that Obama will win Texas by 10 points and will grab 98 delegates to 95 for Clinton.
Where in the world is Mike Huckabee? Why, the Cayman Islands, of course, says Trail Blazers, the Dallas Morning News's blog. (In all fairness, the photo on the blog is of an entirely different island, the Brac, from the one where Mr. Huckabee is speaking, Grand Cayman.)
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Case Closed
Houstoned's got a neat summary of the events leading up to the resignation of Harris County District Attorney Chuck Rosenthal. You can find Rosenthal's resignation letter at musings, and comments to said letter at Defending People: The Art and Science of Criminal Defense Lawyering.
Professors-R-Square has the skinny: "Regarding the now-open D.A.'s position, we have been told by friends within the Harris County Republican Party that HCRP Chair Jared Woodfill and Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt are playing a key role in the recommendation to Governor [Rick] Perry for Rosenthal's replacement. They're pushing Perry and his people not to name anyone who is currently seeking the office."
A list of ten things that haven't changed as a result of Rosenthal's departure, by Life at the Harris County Criminal Justice Center, who ponders the former D.A.'s career in an earlier post here. The Houston Stonewall Young Democrats aren't broken up about by the news, reports Burnt Orange.
And Tex Parte Blog wins Headline of the Week award for a primer on how to avoid federal contempt and sanctions: "Subpoena = save, not delete."
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Out West
As campaign tactics begin to take a turn for the aggressive in HD-78's GOP primary, Vaqueros & Wonkeros, the El Paso Times's blog, has a letter from Dee Margo supporter J.O. Stewart, a TV commercial by Margo and mailers from Margo and incumbent Pat Haggerty.
Vaqueros wonders what effect Gov. Perry's recent endorsement of Margo will have on the race, and reports that HD-78 Democrat Joe Moody is not dropping out of the race.
Annex gets his mouse pad in a wad over anti-blog comments made by HD-77 candidate Marisa Marquez on an El Paso radio show: "I am so sick and so tired of candidates trashing the Netroots because they think it is the vogue thing to do."
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Meet the Blogs
Off the Kuff sits down with state Rep. Dora Olivo, D-Rosenberg, has a conversation with CD-10 Democrat Larry Joe Doherty and queries Texas Supreme Court hopeful Linda Yañez.
Kuff's also got a Q&A with U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega, while Texas Blue has an audio interview with Texas House Democratic Chair Jim Dunnam of Waco.
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Political Goulash
Accusations that Eddie Saenz is using push polling, by state Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Edinburg, in his A Capitol Blog.
Thoughts on the debate between Noriega and Ray McMurrey, by Burnt Orange.
Briefs on HD-20 Democrats, by Burnt Orange.
Photos of Washington, D.C., (which is kind of like Austin except colder and wetter, and everyone wears black) by The Capitol Crowd.
A TV commercial for SD-11 Democrat Joe Jaworski, by Greg's Opinion.
"The Amazing Random Fact Generator," via Mike Falick's Blog.
V-Day? Bah, humbug! by Redneck Mother.
Chris Bell's essay on ethics rules, on Blue.
This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is spending the spring in the mid-Atlantic region. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.
The big counties usually account for about 60 percent of total voting, and the Texas Secretary of State estimates two million Texans cast their ballots before Election Day.
Only Montgomery County had more Republican voters than Democrats, among these top 14 counties. Several reliably Republican counties — Williamson, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, and Tarrant — had more Democrats in the early vote than Republicans. Tidbits: • Democratic voting was 460 percent higher this year than in the 2004 presidential primary. • Republican voting was no slouch, rising 187 percent over its 2004 mark. • In raw numbers, 712,597 more people voted in the Democratic primary this year; 196,165 more voted in the GOP primary. • The smallest percentage increase in the Democratic turnout was in Hidalgo County — up 71 percent over four years ago. But that county led the state four years ago in raw turnout. This year, the top spot went to the state's most populous county — Harris. • The smallest increase on the GOP side? It was 32 percent, in Williamson County, where Democratic primary voting rose 802 percent and surpassed GOP voting, to the surprise of both parties. • Early voting in the top counties approached, but didn't match, early voting in the 2004 general election (when turnout is historically much higher). But several counties did better in this primary than in that general, including Harris, El Paso, Hidalgo, Fort Bend, and Nueces. • Combine the primaries and look at the turnout: The biggest percentage increase among the big counties was in Fort Bend, up 673 percent. Increases in Dallas nad Tarrant counties also surpassed 600 percent. The littlest overall increase? Hidalgo, up 74.5 percent.
As the Texas primaries approach, bloggers are typing furiously about White House hopefuls. They're also writing about state and U.S. representatives, early voters and two things that didn't fit anywhere else. And we've got a photo finish!
Top of the Ballot
Burnt Orange Report updated its Texas Superdelegate Watch, reports on Bill Clinton's rally at the University of Texas at Austin, was on site for Barack Obama surrogate Samuel L. Jackson's talk with 600 folks in Tyler (three-quarters of whom showed up to demand refunds for their tickets to Snakes on a Plane), and has comments on early voting from the Obama and Clinton campaign.
In the Pink Texas continues its series of reader reflections on candidate choice, featuring a Brazosport Democrat, a Latina for Obama, a Joe Ely fan for Clinton, a 50ish white Texas male for Obama, a Republican for Hillary Clinton and a torn Wallflower Jr..
Texas Blue has a handful of interviews with presidential campaign insiders, while Chris Bell calculates that IA + NH = TX.
Trail Blazers, the Dallas Morning News's blog, has a series of .mp3 files featuring Obama and spots Mark McKinnon at a John McCain event, while Anti Corruption Republican is outraged, simply outraged, that the Obama campaign would call and ask for his/her vote.
KVUE's Political Junkie got some face time in the bathroom with Obama, while Clinton met with lawyers in Dallas, according to Tex Parte Blog.
CD-24 candidate Tom Love is feeling the love from former Pres. Clinton in this Burnt Orange post, while former state Rep. Debra Danburg is giving some love to Hillary Clinton. And the Houston Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual and Transgender Caucus likes Obama. (No, not the way you're thinking, Rick Perry!)
The Dallas Morning News's Trail Blazers says Bill O'Reilly mentioned Perry as a possible VP , but according to Professors-R-Squared's calculations, the governor doesn't even make the list of possible candidates.
After looking at all these polls on the Clinton-Obama Texas contest from Houtopia, In the Pink, Blue, and Junkie (one and two), the conclusion is: it's close.
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Bicameral
Burnt Orange says state Rep. Kevin Bailey, D-Houston, is "running scared" (because GOP types are giving him money), and Dos Centavos has a list of endorsements for opponent Armando Walle.
Capitol Annex is concerned about "right wing cash" going to state Rep. Dora Olivo, D-Stafford, "Republican dollars" going to HD-43 Democratic candidate Tia Rios Ybarra and GOP donations to El Paso Democrat Marisa Marquez. [eds. note: But no mentions of Carol Alvarado contributors in Houston?]
Half Empty takes a look at the HD-27 Democratic primary, while PinkDome wonders what House Speaker Tom Craddick is doing with a $2,698 office chair.
The El Paso Times's blog Vaqueros & Wonkeros keeps track of the battles for El Paso state house seats here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here. BurkaBlog's take on El Paso is here. And Burka offers his list of endangered state representatives.
ABC13's Political Blog sums up the, ahem, crowded CD-22 GOP field thusly: "Less than a week to go, 10 candidates. [Pete] Olson is mad at [John] Manlove, [Shelley] Sekula-Gibbs (sic) is sending out email blasts against Olson, [Brian] Klock is trying to show he's a serious candidate, and everyone's looking for air time!" In other CD-22 news, Half Empty still hasn't figured out what a push poll is.
CD-10 Democrat Dan Grant can add another name to his burgeoning Rolodex of endorsers -- Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle. And Burnt Orange joined the Grant fan club, too. Meanwhile, CD-7 independent John Truitt is dropping out of the race, reports Off the Kuff.
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Worm Getters
Texas early voting smashed all known records, but what does it all mean?
Off the Kuff reads around, looks at the data and historical trends and says "I have no idea how this will play out." Texas Observer Blog thinks Texas might get another Hispanic congressional seat, whatever that entails. Meanwhile, Burka calls the turnout "a dominant performance" by Democrats, and wonders if all those ladies voting for Clinton down in the Valley are going to boost other female candidates.
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Odd Couple
According to recent polling, Rick Noriega leads in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary with 32 percent. Runner up? Gene Kelly, with 15 percent. Third? Ray McMurrey, at 8 percent. Chronic, the Austin Chronicle's blog, is not happy.
And Observer sets itself up for ridicule in hindsight by engaging in Round 2 of "Down Ballot Prognosticating."
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Photo Finish
Somebody must have given Blue a video camera for Christmas: They've got moving pictures from the "Spin Room" at the Obama-Clinton debate in Austin, featuring Rep. Rafael Anchia, D-Dallas, Rep. Ana Hernandez, D-Houston, Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas, Rep. Senfronia Thompson, D-Houston, U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco, former Dallas mayor Ron Kirk, Democratic strategist Ed Martin, Clinton state campaign chair Garry Mauro and Clinton strategist Mark Penn (There's also audio interviews with U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Houston, U.S. Rep. Al Green, D-Houston, Kirk and Mauro.)
Blue, too, has videos of a Bill Clinton speech in Dallas and environmental scenes from the same rally, while Burnt Orange has YouTube of U.S. Sen. John Kerry in Brownsville.
Texas Observer Blog uses a nice photo of Gov. Rick Perry to lure readers into a scathing article about his book, and Political Blog takes five minutes of Clinton's time and puts it on the Web.
Here are pictures from a breakfast hosted by Noriega at Tito's Mexican Restaurant in San Antonio, via Walker Report, and a creepy still frame from state Rep. hopeful Brian Thompson's TV ad, via Chronic.
Trail Blazers goes with the lesser-utilized .bmp file format when posting these pics from Obama's Dallas rally, while Austinist has flash slideshows of Ron Paul at the UT campus and of Obama in Austin.
This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is spending the spring in the mid-Atlantic region. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.
The Clinton campaign says Obama supporters are cheating in the Texas Democratic caucuses, stealing materials, filling them out before the caucuses began, and blocking Clinton supporters who want to join those caucuses. And you can find similar complaints from the other side.Officials with the Texas Democratic Party say neither campaign has complained to them — they've complained instead to the media. The Clinton folks aren't saying what they'll do, but held a mid-caucus conference call with reporters to complain about what's going on. Ace Smith, who's heading Clinton's Texas operation, called it "a tremendously disturbing pattern," said the Texas Democratic Party had issued two memos to the Obama campaign today on this subject, and said the reports come from all over the state. In fact, those memos — included below — were addressed to both parties. And Boyd Richie, the chairman of the state party, talked down the problems. "The Texas Democratic Party has conducted comprehensive preparations and developed a fair and transparent reporting system for this historic caucus turnout," he said. "Texas Republicans only wish they had the kind of “issues” that have been raised by two Democratic campaigns who are working hard for every vote and every delegate." Lyn Utrecht, a lawyer for the campaign said hundreds of complaints have come in, among them: That Obama supporters were filling out the caucus sign-in sheets through the day, filling them out at polling places, improperly removing "precinct packets" from voting premises, taking over some caucuses and walking Clinton supporters out of those. At one point, Smith corrected his campaign lawyer's reference to the "accusations," saying, "These are not accusations. These are documented instances." The lawyer gave reporters some specific precincts in Houston to look at. In the middle of the conference call with reporters, Obama campaign general counsel Bob Bauer broke in with a question to the Clinton people, challenging their timing and saying this isn't the first time they've tried to disrupt a caucus with complaints. He suggested "surrogates" for the Clinton camp sued in Nevada during the voting there. And he made a point of saying the complaints come on the heels of Obama victories in a number of states. The state Democratic Party says sign in sheets that were filled in before the polls closed are invalid and can't be used. They say out-of-state supporters of the two Democratic candidates who show up in Texas to appear at those conventions are ineligible and will be turned away. They say in one memo that the precinct conventions are open to the public and efforts to try to credential people — allowing some, barring some — aren't kosher. And they say packets weren't supposed to be available until 7:15 Tuesday night or after the last person in line in a given precinct voted. Getting into that stuff early is a crime, and they're encouraging people to report violations to the law.
As of 7:15 am Wednesday... John McCain and Hillary Clinton are the headliners. Incumbents had a pretty good night. Nine House incumbents were defeated. But legislators in both parties held off well-financed attacks. And what about Battle Craddick — the fight over votes for House Speaker Tom Craddick? It was a mixed bag, but by our count, he picked up four votes and lost three (with a couple of races still in play). Bottom line: That fight will continue through November — the primaries didn't settle it.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton has 510.9% and Barack Obama has 47.4%; the networks have called it for her...
Rick Noriega (barely) is hovering around runoff range in his U.S. Senate bid, with 51%; non-dancer Gene Kelly is in second...
U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes of El Paso is cruising to an easy win...
Mark Thompson has a wide lead in the race for Railroad Commission, but not wide enough to avoid a runoff...
Sam Houston has a large lead over Baltazar Cruz in the race for Supreme Court (7); Linda Reyna Yañez has a three-point advantage over Susan Criss in the race for Place 8 on that court...
Mary Helen Berlanga won reelection to the State Board of Education...
Joe Jaworski easily defeated Bryan Hermann in the first step of a challenge to state Sen. Mike Jackson, R-La Porte...
Sen. Judith Zaffirini won easily over Rene Barrientos, who has 21.4% of the vote in spite of the fact that he didn't campaign...
State Rep Races
Donnie Dippel easily won the Democratic race to replace Rep. Robby Cook, who isn't seeking reelection...
Rep. Doro Olivo held onto a very narrow lead over Ron Reynolds, who tromped her in the early voting. She won by 187 votes...
Rep. Kino Flores held onto a four-point lead over Sandra Rodriguez with almost everything counted...
Rep. Rene Oliveira won easily...
Rep. Aaron Peña beat challenger Eddie Saenz by about five points...
Rep. Juan Escobar lost by almost eight points to Tara Rios Ybarra...
Rep. Dawnna Dukes coasted to reelection after a pitched political fight with Brian Thompson...
Rep. Paul Moreno, with 48.4%, lost to Marisa Marquez, who got the rest...
Rep. Roberto Alonzo won easily...
Rep. Kevin Bailey lost to Armando Lucio Walle by a wide margin...
Carol Alvarado easily won the primary race to replace Rick Noriega in the state legislature...
Rep. Borris Miles fell hard to former Rep. Al Edwards, who lost their last contest in 2006. Edwards had 61.1%...
Reps. Garnet Coleman and Jessica Farrar both won easily...
Republicans
John McCain, with 51.2%, won Texas and clinched the National GOP nomination, while Mike Huckabee, with 37.8%, quit the race and endorsed McCain. Former hot ticket Ron Paul has 5.1%...
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is winning easily, with challenger Larry Kilgore mustering 18.5%...
U.S. Reps. Sam Johnson, Ralph Hall, and Ron Paul are well ahead of their challengers...
The winners in the free-for-all in CD-10 — a ten-candidate race for the seat once held by Tom DeLay — are Shelley Sekula Gibbs, at 29.7%, who briefly held the spot before losing to U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, a Democrat, and Pete Olson, at 20.7%. There will be a runoff.
Lyle Larson finished well ahead of Quico Canseco in CD-23; he'll will face U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio...
Court of Criminal Appeals Judge Paul Womack is leading his challenger by a 2-to-1 margin...
State Board of Education Member Pat Hardy won with a 18-point cushion over her challenger...
Two state senators — Tommy Williams of The Woodlands and Craig Estes of Wichita Falls, both won their primaries without breaking a sweat...
State Rep Races
Rep. Betty Brown beat Wade Gent by 635 votes...
Rep. Byron Cook is beating his opponent by almost 3-to-1...
Rep. Charlie Howard, with two opponents, has 64.6%...
Randy Weber won the three-man race to replace Rep. Mike O'Day of Pearland without a runoff...
In HD-52, where incumbent Rep. Mike Krusee isn't running for reelection, there will be a runoff: Dee Hobbs finished first, with 31.8%, followed by Bryan Daniel and John Gordon, who were just 79 votes apart...
In the race to replace Rep. Dianne White Delisi, R-Temple, Martha Tyroch finished first and Ralph Sheffield was second. There will be a runoff there...
Rep. Charles "Doc" Anderson easily held off Jonathan Sibley in Waco, getting 63.5%...
Rep. Phil King easily defeated former Weatherford Mayor Joe Tison after a noisy race where both candidates pulled in thousands of dollars from outside the district. King got 65.5% to Tison's 34.5%...
Rep. Jerry Madden survived a challenge from Jon Cole...
Rep. Nathan Macias lost by 38 votes — out of 29,324 cast to Doug Miller. That's a recount candidate...
Rep. Pat Haggerty lost badly to Dee Margo, who got 56.6%...
Rep. Buddy West faces a runoff after finishing second to Tryon Lewis. The challenger got 44%; West got 38.4%...
Rep. Delwin Jones won easily in Lubbock, as did Rep. Bill Zedler in Arlington...
Mark Shelton landed far ahead of the pack in the Fort Worth race for a full term in the seat formerly held by Anna Mowery...
Rep. Charlie Geren easily defeated Tom Annunziato...
Rep. Thomas Latham lost to former Mesquite Mayor Mike Anderson...
Angie Chen Button was first in the race to replace Rep. Fred Hill of Richardson, but she faces a runoff against former Garland City Councilman Randy Dunning...
Rep. Frank Corte won easily...
Rep. Joe Crabb got 55% against two challengers...
Rep. John Davis won his race 2-to-1...
Allen Fletcher knocked off Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale, winning by about five points...
And Ken Legler and Fred Roberts led the race to replace Rep. Robert Talton, who gave up his spot to run for Congress. That's going to a runoff...
Tuesday's primary produced a handful of runoff races. The drill: Early voting starts March 31 and runs for five days. Election Day is April 8.
Five of the tie-breakers are for open statehouse seats. One's an incumbent fighting for another term. And one features the two survivors of a 10-way contest for the chance to challenge an incumbent Democratic congressman. All of those contests are on the Republican side.
• The Democratic primary produced only one state race runoff: Mark Thompson of Hamilton didn't get quite enough votes to avoid another month of work in his bid for Texas Railroad Commission. Now he faces a runoff with Dale Henry of Lampasas, who previously ran for that post as a Republican. Henry, if he makes it into the general election, will be the first candidate to run against each of the three members of a sitting Railroad Commission. He's already lost to Victor Carrillo and Elizabeth Ames Jones; Republican Michael Williams is the incumbent seeking reelection this time.
• The herd of elephants in CD-22 is down to two — Dr. Shelley Sekula Gibbs, with 29.7 percent of the primary votes, and Pete Olson, with 20.7 percent.
Olson put out a press release calling for five debates with his opponent — one in each county in the district and one on a local radio station. "We're going to start talking about something different — the specific issues," Olson said.
"Shelley thinks that's a brilliant idea," said C.B. Currier with the Sekula Gibbs campaign. Currier said they'll pull back from big media ads and focus on the small community of voters likely to stay in the game until April.
"They have a lot of work to do," said Kevyn Bazzy. "But in a way it's easier because if you don't get a good vibe from a voter, you can mark that one off and move on." Bazzy, who received less than two percent in the primary, said Olson's military experience has a chance of standing out now that the other military men — Brian Klock, Ryan Rowley and Bazzy himself — are out.
"I'm excited for the voters that they have two good choices," said Jim Squier, who ended up with 1.8 percent on Election Day. He wouldn't name a favorite.
It's a double-edged sword for Sekula Gibbs and Olson. A one-on-one race is more intense, but easier on candidates and voters — the two will try to win new support but won't have to do it from a ten-candidate crowd. Sekula Gibbs ran before, losing a write-in campaign to Democrat Nick Lampson; that and her short-but-turbulent tenure finishing Tom DeLay's term could draw institutional opposition to her from other politicians. Watch the endorsements.
• It was a tight race in HD-52, where Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock, decided not to seek reelection. The work isn't done for prosecutor Dee Hobbs, who got 31.8 percent, and insurance executive Bryan Daniel, with 30 percent. John Gordon was 83 votes behind, with 29.2 percent (and says he won't seek a recount).
"There were three of us spending a lot of money, and we were all three working real hard," said Gordon. "One of us three was going to come up short." He said he hasn't decided who he'll endorse or even who has the best chance to win in April — but he's certain they'll throw in a lot of cash over the next few weeks.
Hobbs and Daniel seem to be friendly foes.
"I wasn't sure what kind of campaign we were going to have," Hobbs said. "It's been a very friendly race."
"I'm very pleased with the outcome," said Daniel. "I'm ready to move forward and I hope we continue to campaign on the issues."
Neither candidate is changing their campaign strategy. Both say it's time to focus on keeping the voters energized for another round.
• Martha Tyroch and Ralph Sheffield have another month of campaigning ahead in HD-55. She led with 36.1 percent; he ended up with 31.1 percent.
After finishing with 20.4 percent, Mike Pearce sent a personal thank-you to his supporters and said he'll endorse Sheffield. "He is a good man, and we need him to win this race, as the alternative would be deleterious to District 55," Pearce said in the e-mail.
"It was very obvious that there would be a runoff and we were prepared," said Tyroch, a former member of the Temple City Council. "We are ready, I'm not tired at all."
John Alaniz, who ended up with 12.4 percent,said both candidates have asked for his endorsement, but he's still wavering.
"I'm not surprised at the outcome... at the end of the day, it was who had the most money," Alaniz said. "I think the two strongest conservatives were the two that had the least money."
Tyroch raised $145,557 so far. Sheffield raised $69,713 and loaned his campaign another $88,546. They both spent a lot on ads and start Round Two with about equal standing.
• Rep. Buddy West of Odessa made his own pickle, telling the full House at the end of last session that he'd enjoyed his eight terms in office but that, for health reasons, he was moving on and wouldn't seek reelection. By the time his health improved and his mind was changed, the pickle was sour — he'd attracted the attention of other Republicans in HD-81. Now he's fighting for his life. He finished second in a four-way race on Tuesday with 38.4 percent — enough to make the runoff with front-running Tryon Lewis, an attorney and former judge who won the support of 44 percent of the voters.
• Angie Chen Button and Randy Dunning are headed for a runoff in the HD-112. She led with 37.9 percent to his 35 percent. Jim Shepherd wasn't that far behind with 27.1 percent.
"It was a very nice campaign in the first round," said Button's consultant Craig Murphy. "But [Dunning] started attacking at the very end. We're not going to let him get away with that now." Murphy said he thought Shepherd was the stronger opponent, but he just got a late start and didn't run a negative campaign.
"It's a classic runoff between someone who's got a proven conservative record and someone who does not," said Kevin Brannon, Dunning's consultant. That campaign is zeroing in on political contributions Button, a former DART board member, made to Dallas Democrats, including U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, state Rep. Terri Hodge and Sen. Royce West.
Shepherd had the endorsement of incumbent Fred Hill – now Shepherd is deciding who he'll back for the runoff. He said he's taking a few days to figure it out. "I know that an amazing amount of money will be spent over the next few weeks, because a lot has already been spent," Shepherd said.
Sidebar: A local blog in the district— suziblitz.com — backs Dunning, but they got pranked by an anonymous computer wiz who pasted ads against dunning all over their website. That's been cured now, they think.
• District 144 is heading for a run-off between Ken Legler and Fred Roberts. Legler led Round One with 45.9 percent of the votes to Roberts' 39.5 percent. John Hughey got 14.6 percent.
Incumbent Robert Talton ran (unsuccessfully) in CD-22 and the statehouse seat is open. He's backing Roberts.
"On a one to ten scale, I'm a seven right now," said Roberts, a Pasadena school board trustee. "I'd be a ten if I won by 51 percent, but I fell a little short."
Allen Blakemore is consulting for Legler, a businessman who served on the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality and is now chairman of the EPA's national advisory board. Blakemore said Roberts got a lot of the "school crowd" to the polls.
"My attitude toward runoffs is turnout, turnout, turnout," Blakemore said. "It's usually pretty low, so you're back to the party faithful. We know who our people are."
Legler has big business support. PACs from Chevron, AT&T and Valero contributed to his campaign.
But the third-place finisher isn't a fan. "Mr. Legler is totally unqualified," Hughey said. "I have a feeling he's not going to win. He's a tool of the lobbies and they will spend a lot of money to try and get him elected."
He's still deciding whether he'll back Roberts: "It all depends on how various people act in the upcoming days."
— by Karie Meltzer
Texas Republicans have never had a primary like this one. They got a quarter of a million more voters to the polls this year than they did in the presidential primaries four years ago. And they weren't the big story. Texas Democrats haven't voted in these numbers since the days when their primary was a de facto general election. The last time more than two million people voted in a Texas Democratic primary was 1972 — when the state had presidential and gubernatorial candidates on the same ticket. This year — the first time Texas was an important part of the primary map for Democratic presidential candidates since the days of LBJ — 2.9 million people voted. Altogether, the two parties turned out 4,252,386 voters — just under the number that voted in the 2006 general election that gave Gov. Rick Perry a second full term. Who are these people? Not everyone answers that the same way. Pollster Daron Shaw, a political science prof at the University of Texas at Austin, said 15 to 20 percent of the people voting in the Democratic primary had some Republican voting history, so there was some crossover. But he and others say it wasn't out of line with some past elections. Pollster Mike Baselice puts the number lower, at 9 to 15 percent, but sees some crossover. Another Republican pollster, Bryan Eppstein of Fort Worth, puts that crossover number in the same range and thinks most of the "new" voters in the two primaries were borrowed from November. They're new to the primaries, but not to the polls. And he concludes that the turnout boom is a fling and not a trend — and that November's numbers won't be as far out of line as the primary numbers were. Leland Beatty, a Democratic number-cruncher, was most interested in exit polling that showed women over 40 holding onto their share of the primary vote — 46 to 48 percent — in spite of the growth in the number of voters. They still made up more than two-fifths of the vote, just as they usually do, and that helped Hillary Clinton stave off Barack Obama. Latinos also held onto their share of the Democratic primary vote, he says, further bolstering Clinton. Baselice says the Hispanics came late, partly accounting for the differences in early voting — Obama won — and Election Day voting, which went strongly toward Clinton.
• She successfully dominated the conversation during the last five days of the contest, combining words on the trail (and more importantly, in the endlessly repeating news cycle on the Internet, cable and broadcast TV and radio, and newspapers) with her "3 a.m." commercials raising doubts about Obama's experience.
• Obama didn't close the deal, opening a new front in this political war before locking things up in Texas. He was still battling with Clinton when he began taking on Republican John McCain. Had that worked, we'd all be talking about what a nice job of positioning he'd done to move her out of the spotlight and convince voters it was a two-person contest. Instead, McCain's response to Obama's nudging reinforced Clinton's attacks on Obama's experience.
• Obama, who was well behind Clinton in most mid-February polls, appeared to catch up. He narrowly won the state's early vote, but her strong close — and the fact that some of her voters waited until Election Day — put him away.
People who made their decisions in the last three days went her way 64-36 percent, according to exit polling. She won in more than a dozen counties where he'd taken the early vote. More importantly, she widened her margins in several counties where she led the early voting.
When the votes were tallied, Obama won in just 24 of the state's 254 counties. But that small number hides some big counties: Collin, Dallas, Denton, Fort Bend, Harris, Tarrant, and Williamson.
(One county, Coryell, landed the tennis ball right on top of the net: 2,434 people voted for Clinton, and 2,434 voted for Obama, according to the Texas Secretary of State.)
Clinton ended up winning in 15 counties where she was behind in early voting. Obama didn't flip any counties from her early vote win column to his side on Election Day.
And to improve her numbers at the end, she had to win big on Election Day; in fact, she got 53.4 percent of that day's vote (her final overall number was 50.9 percent). And even in counties where she ultimately lost, she cut into Obama's numbers. A big, fat example: Clinton only got 43.3 percent of the Harris County vote, but in early voting, she got 37.4 percent, and on Election Day, she got 47.9 percent. She lost the county, and not by a little. But that change brought almost 24,000 votes into her column; when all the votes in Texas were counted, she beat Obama by 101,029, with almost a quarter of the margin attributable to the Harris County turnaround between Friday, when early voting ended, and Tuesday, when the polls opened for 12 hours of political business. That happened, on a smaller scale, in counties across the state.
Obama arguably ran a better race on the ground. The answer to that will come, officially, at the end of the month when Democratic county and senatorial district conventions produce the first solid look at delegate counts. Clinton won the delegates distributed by primary voting (65-61); Obama's supporters expect to win those distributed according to caucuses held after the polls closed this week. That second group is a better measure of the campaigns' ground troops.
One observer — Democratic numbers wiz Leland Beatty — said Obama "didn't go after that part of Texas that is like Kansas," ignoring a huge swath of West Texas that behaves, politically, like large sections of Kansas where Obama beat Clinton in earlier contests. Another — Republican pollster Mike Baselice — thought late voting by Hispanics and other groups important to Clinton helped turn the result. GOP pollster Daron Shaw says it might be simpler than that: "I think we're overanalyzing this a little bit. Obama had his first bad week in months, and that played in."
Making an issue of House Speaker Tom Craddick turned out to be a nonstarter in most parts of the state, both for opponents of the speaker and for people who argued that he needs more support.
This sort of thing can work: former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay got blamed for some losses after he became politically radioactive. But in this election, Craddick didn't set off the Geiger counters in the same way, among either opponents or supporters.
That wasn't the only good news for the speaker. He picked up one or two votes on Tuesday, depending on how you count and on which candidate promises you think will last until the next election of a speaker in January 2009.
Eight House members got beat this week. Nine more who served during the last legislative session either resigned or decided not to seek reelection. A number of legislators from both parties still face tough fights in November.
The short version is that the primaries didn't answer the question of who'll be speaker next session. Craddick's still in it but doesn't have anything locked up.
The speaker issue could heat up in the general election, when Democrats can be rallied against Republican management and Republicans can be rallied in favor of it. And a new federal court ruling will let outsiders play in the speaker's race — through political action committees and other guises — for the first time.
It'll be tight, no matter what. There are 79 Republicans and 71 Democrats in the Texas House right now. When Craddick won his first term, breaking the century-old Democratic hold on the seat, there were 88 Republicans. It takes 76 votes to become speaker, and more support than that to comfortably hold that job.
Where Who is Doing What...
• Hillary Clinton stopped in Texas Saturday and was on her way back to Ohio for Sunday and Monday appearances. She'll be in Beaumont and Austin Monday for a town hall and then a closer at a high school sports complex.
• President Bill Clinton had Texas on his schedule for Sunday and Monday. It's a whirlwind: Sunday: Houston, College Station, Marshall, Wichita Falls, and Abilene; Monday: Corpus Christi, Edinburg, Brownsville, Laredo, Eagle Pass, Del Rio and El Paso.
• Clinton had other surrogates working for her over the weekend — a group that includes Gloria Steinem, former Rock the Vote President Jehmu Greene, and actors Ted Danson, Melanie Griffith, Mary Steenburgen, and Amber Tamblyn.
• San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome made a Houston stop for Clinton, joining a group announcing her endorsement by the Houston area Stonewall Democrats. That gang included Houston City Council Member and superdelegateSue Lovell, Teresa Herrin, who heads the Houston group, and actor Robert Grant of the TV show Queer as Folk. • Barack Obama has town hall meetings in San Antonio and Carrollton on Monday and then he and his wife will hold a rally in Houston. Before that stop, Michelle Obama will make stops of her own in Tyler and Austin. Obama plans to be in San Antonio on Election Night; earlier notices had him in Austin that evening.• U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd and Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano are hitting the Texas bricks for Obama. The two were to appear together in Dallas and Fort Worth on Sunday, and Napolitano will make a stop on Monday morning at the University of Texas at El Paso. Actor Forest Whitaker, a Longview native, stopped in Marshall and Tyler on Sunday and plans a Beaumont stop on Monday. Actress Kate Walsh of Grey's Anatomy, stumps for Obama Monday and Tuesday at college campuses in San Marcos, Austin, College Station and Waco.
• Rep. Yvonne Davis, D-Dallas, says she'll support Obama, an endorsement that has some juice: She's a superdelegate.
• Former Texas Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower — who's not a superdelegate — is with Obama. And so is state Rep. Jessica Farrar, D-Houston.
• The Clinton camp offers some positioning spin to the media, which boils down to this: The senator from Illinois is outspending the senator from New York by a 2-to-1 margin in Texas, and if he doesn't run the table here and elsewhere on March 4, that means Democrats "are having second thoughts about him as a prospective standard-bearer."
This week's winners includes a number of folks who are, for all intents and purposes, done for the year because they have no major party opposition.
In Congress, it's a list of one: U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-El Paso.
In the state Senate, it's two Republicans: Sens. Tommy Williams of The Woodlands and Craig Estes of Wichita Falls.
In the House, the Republican list includes Reps. Byron Cook of Corsicana, Charlie Howard of Sugar Land, Charles "Doc" Anderson of Waco, Jerry Madden of Richardson, Delwin Jones of Lubbock, and a new guy, Allen Fletcher of Tomball, who defeated Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale.
The House's list of Democrats with missions accomplished: Reps. Kino Flores of Palmview, Rene Oliveira of Brownsville, Aaron Peña of Edinburg, Dawnna Dukes of Austin, and Roberto Alonzo of Dallas. Several newbies are on the Democratic list of representatives-nearly-elect: Tara Rios Ybarra of South Padre Island, Marisa Marquez of El Paso, and Armando Lucio Walle and former Rep. Al Edwards of Houston. Each knocked off an incumbent, respectively: Juan Escobar, Paul Moreno, Kevin Bailey, and Borris Miles.