Former state Sen. Kim Brimer, R-Fort Worth, won the mail-in vote two years ago. He beat Democrat Wendy Davis on Election Day, too. But he lost the walk-in early vote in the crush of excited Democrats who went to the polls that year, and that was enough to send him home and send Davis to the state Senate.
Early voting starts on Monday, and Republicans are hoping to tell stories like that one after the election. There are signs they peaked a little early — the maximum chest-thumping period seemed to be in late August and early September — but they're still expecting to have a big day nationally and a big day in Texas. Democrats we know are still apprehensive, but not as worried as they were a few weeks ago. Races that were lost in mid-September have closed up. For instance, there was a Chet Edwards announcement, via press release, that his polls show he's behind by 4 percentage points. That stinks, you'd think, except that it's a big improvement over his earlier polls (salt this stuff heavily, as the polls come from the campaign pushing them as news). Likewise, we're hearing from consultants here and there that their races are tightening up.
That's not enough to put the Democrats in a good mood, necessarily. And not everybody's buying it, either. State Rep. Warren Chisum, R-Pampa, pulled the trigger on his race for speaker this week, saying the House needs stronger leadership and not saying, but likely thinking, that there will be enough Republican gains to assist him in toppling freshman Speaker Joe Straus of San Antonio. Straus, a Republican, was elected with more Democrats than Republicans at his side.
Chisum's pitch is that only a speaker with the support of a majority of his own party can properly run the House. That might be so, but it also describes a narrow path to victory. If this was a story about Congress or about another state, we'd be writing that the GOP caucus will pick the next speaker and that all Chisum has to do is win a majority of that group to defeat Straus. But this remains a bipartisan House, and Chisum can't get to the high chair without some Democrats at his side. See the trouble? He's more popular with the conservative Republicans who resent Straus' embrace of Democrats, but he needs Democrats to win the speakership and he needs to convince enough people in both groups that they'd get a better deal with him in charge than they're getting now. If anyone can pull from both sides, it's probably Chisum.
Overthrowing a speaker, or trying to, is risky; Chisum would have to show enough people that it's worth the risk. It's not clear that Straus has aggravated enough people (or any, really) to create real opposition since he took over in January 2009. That leaves three groups from which Chisum could draw support: Republicans who lost political juice when Straus ousted former Speaker Tom Craddick of Midland, Democrats who think they'd get a better ride from someone other than the current speaker, and new members who haven't formed allegiances to Straus.
If the Republican election gains are large enough, that third group could make this interesting. Chisum's decision to announce before the election could reflect some confidence in that, or could be a signal to other conservative Republicans that it's time to come out and play — while the elections are still in flux.
Straus isn't exactly Bambi here. He's been pressing campaign money into the hands of embattled incumbent Republicans while other GOP groups have been funding attacks on incumbent Democrats. That keeps Straus' hands out of the races of those Democrats — many of whom helped get him elected last year — while buttressing his Republican support with members who might not have supported him over Craddick. Some Democrats are suspicious of that arrangement and suggest Straus is doing more favors for the party that he represents than for the House members who voted him into office. Chisum's playing on that, too, telling the Democrats that when he's against them, he'll be obvious about it. He says it boils down to experience. From his letter to fellow House members:
Today I throw my hat, my experience, and my commitment to the House into the ring for consideration as Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives. Those of you who know me, know that this is not a decision I have entered into lightly, but like many of you I have come to realize that the time has come for us to unite behind a speaker that will lead the Texas House next session as we face our state's many challenges together.
The times demand a strong and decisive leader. The Texas House has enjoyed strong, experienced leadership under Speakers Laney and Craddick, who were fully supported by majorities of their respective political parties. Sadly, recent history has shown us that when a chamber's leadership does not enjoy majority support from his own party mixed with good support from the opposition party, his leadership is weak and ineffective. As a candidate for Speaker of the House, I will give Republicans and Democrats an opportunity to decide whether the Texas House wants to lead this session, or whether it doesn't.
...
In deciding to run for Speaker of the House, I heavily weighed the experience of last session with the demands of the upcoming session. In earnest, we entered the 81st session with open minds, hoping for the brand of leadership Speaker Straus had pledged. However, his approach, guided by his inexperience, instead allowed the minority party to control much of the session's agenda, and the result was no leadership during the total breakdown in the most critical days of the session. Speaker Straus has never served on Appropriations, never served on Ways and Means, has never even faced a difficult budget cycle, much less served as a member during a redistricting session. As the 82nd Legislature approaches, Texas demands a speaker who can successfully navigate these waters. I have the experience and skill that the House requires.
State Rep. Leo Berman, R-Tyler, had been running for speaker but told reporters he is dropping out and will support Chisum. And Straus deflected the story by saying he's busy with other things: "My style of respectful, inclusive leadership has earned the support of the vast majority of members of the Republican caucus and the Texas House. In these critical weeks before the election, I believe my fellow Republicans should be focused on building our Republican majority in the Texas House, as I am working hard to do."
