Vol 27, Issue 41 Print Issue

Spooked

Not every Democrat we know is twitchy or nervous or jumpy or scared — maybe they're not in the Halloween frame of mind. But candidates and consultants who ordinarily aren't worried at all are uncertain, and in a negative way — not the state you want to be in during the closing days of a campaign.

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

The Texas House has 150 members, and all of them are on the ballot. But not all of them have races, and not all of those with races are in trouble. More than 60 percent of the people on the House ballot have either no opponent at all (63 of them), or no major-party opposition (30). The "practically elected" class includes 39 Democrats and 54 Republicans; 11 of them will be entering as freshmen. Some are unopposed: Democrats (32): Allan Ritter, Joe Deshotel, Ryan Guillen, Sergio Muñoz Jr.*, Rene Oliveira, Eddie Lucio III, Armando Martinez, Aaron Peña, Richard Raymond, Edmund Kuempel, Chente Quintanilla, Naomi Gonzalez*, Marisa Marquez, Tracy King, Mark Veasey, Eric Johnson, Rafael Anchia, Roberto Alonzo, Helen Giddings, Barbara Mallory Caraway, Yvonne Davis, Trey Martinez Fischer, Joe Farias, Ruth McClendon, Mike Villarreal, Alma Allen, Sylvester Turner, Armando Walle, Harold Dutton, Carol Alvarado, Borris Miles*, and Garnet Coleman. Republicans (31): Dan Flynn, Lance Gooden*, Bryan Hughes, Jim Pitts, Fred Brown, Lois Kolkhorst, Brandon Creighton, Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton, Dennis Bonnen, Geanie Morrison, Todd Hunter, Jimmy Don Aycock, Jim Keffer, Tan Parker, Van Taylor*, Jerry Madden, Rick Hardcastle, Ken Paxton, Drew Darby, Tryon Lewis, Tom Craddick, Charles Perry*, John Smithee, Warren Chisum, Jodie Laubenberg, Kelly Hancock, Vicki Truitt, Charlie Geren, Joe Straus, Wayne Smith, and Gary Elkins. Others have only minor-party opponents: Democrats (7): Ron Reynolds*, Jose Manuel Lozano*, Dawnna Dukes, Elliott Naishtat, Joe Pickett, Jose Menendez, and Joaquin Castro. Republicans (23): Leo Berman, David Simpson*, Rob Eissler, John Otto, Charles Schwertner*, Larry Taylor, Randy Weber, Harvey Hilderbran, Ralph Sheffield, Sid Miller, Phil King, Larry Phillips, Myra Crownover, Burt Solomons, Lanham Lyne*, Susan King, Doug Miller, Diane Patrick, Mark Shelton, Angie Chen Button, Jim Jackson, Allen Fletcher and Beverly Woolley. Those with asterisks are freshmen, and that group includes Van Taylor, who's already been sworn in to replace Brian McCall, and Borris Miles, who served one term, lost, and is now on his way back in.

Here's the Texas House list, all of them Democrats: Valinda Bolton of Austin, Ellen Cohen of Houston, Jim Dunnam of Waco, Kirk England of Grand Prairie, Stephen Frost of Atlanta, Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles of Alice, Joe Heflin of Crosbyton, Abel Herrero of Robstown, Mark Homer of Paris, Carol Kent of Dallas, David McQuade Leibowitz of San Antonio, Diana Maldonado of Round Rock, Jim McReynolds of Lufkin, Robert Miklos of Mesquite, Joe Moody of El Paso, Solomon Ortiz Jr. of Corpus Christi, Paula Pierson of Arlington, Patrick Rose of Dripping Springs, Kristi Thibaut of Houston, Chris Turner of Burleson, and Allen Vaught of Dallas.

House Speaker Joe Straus says he's now got 130 votes for reelection as speaker, saying the only change is that a House with 99 Republicans instead of 76 will be a much more conservative House. But State Rep. Warren Chisum says he will continue the challenge to Straus that he announced three weeks ago. The Pampa Republican told reporters crowded into his office this morning that the next speaker should be elected by the House Republican Caucus and said he's not convinced — in spite of Straus' claims — that the 130 members who've pledged their support to the incumbent will hold fast. "I'd just like to announce that I'm still in the race for speaker of the House. I understand that the current speaker has released his list of people that he has signed cards for. But the race is not over." Straus says it is over, and says proof is in the number of people who've pledged to support him: Less than two dozen members are still free agents. He says he's not opposed to holding the election in the GOP caucus — "that's up to the members" — but notes Chisum's opposition to a caucus election when he was toying with a run for speaker in late 2001. Another member, Leo Berman of Tyler, accused Straus of buying votes — by making contributions to the campaigns of House candidates from his own campaign funds. Straus, for instance, contributed $100,000 each to state Reps. Linda Harper-Brown of Irving and Charles "Doc" Anderson of Waco when those two were facing scandals that threatened their incumbencies. They won, and Berman now suggests those were bribes. Chisum wasn't as blunt, but didn't disagree with the idea. "I will not deny that," he said when asked about Straus giving more than he did. "He passed out a lot of money to a lot of people." Straus deflected that charge, saying simply that he has taken care to follow the state's ethics laws and adding, a little more pointedly, that he worked hard to help Republican members who found themselves in electoral trouble. The actual election of a speaker takes place in January, usually on the first day of the legislative session. Two years ago, Straus upset House Speaker Tom Craddick — even after Craddick claimed to have enough votes to win reelection. Chisum's trying those same waters, hoping that the House is as unhappy with its incumbent today — if for different reasons — than it was after the 2008 elections.

The numbers are new, the charts are different...

Rick Perry didn’t beat Bill White on Tuesday because he was more ruthless, raised more money, or looked better on television. He didn’t win because conservative voters in Texas vastly outnumber liberals or because Texas’ economy has created more jobs than the rest of the country. And he didn’t win when he tried to hand President Barack Obama a letter or when he shot the coyote with a laser-sighted pistol while jogging with his daughter’s puppy. Rick Perry won re-election because of what he did on April 15, 2009. Few remember that at the time U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison was considered a near-lock to beat him. She was stomping the incumbent in the polls by as many as 25 points thanks to her stratospheric approval ratings, and Perry looked like he was headed for the woodshed. The incumbent began to turn it around when, despite accepting $17 billion in federal stimulus money to balance the state budget, he made a great show of rejecting $556 million in federal stimulus money to bail out the state’s unemployment trust fund. This was all about posturing for the 2010 Republican Primary. Unlike the southward-facing Goddess of Liberty atop the Texas Capitol, Perry turned toward Washington, wagging a hypocritical middle finger like an ineffectual toy sword. Because he was sniffing around the anti-Washington message, he realized sooner than any other major Republican politician what a boon the tea party movement could be for him. So on April 15, 2009, when 1,000 Tax Day Tea Parties took place nationwide, Rick Perry went to three of them in Texas after he had gone on Fox News in the morning to compare the tea party rallies to the battle of the Alamo. "It is a very powerful moment, I think, in American history," he said. Later he donned a camouflage ball cap and railed against Washington to the assembled throngs, saying, “Washington needs to hear us loud and clear. Cut the spending, cut the taxes, shrink the government. And reread the Constitution." Then, in a genius stroke, he linked the anti-Washington rhetoric to Texas mythology, quoting Sam Houston, who said, "Texas has yet to learn submission to any oppression." That, right there, is how he won the election, by positioning himself as the defender of Texas against Washington oppression. Remember, this was a day in which very few major Republican politicians thought showing up at the rallies would be appropriate, and for good reason. Hutchison certainly stayed away, and she probably thanked her lucky stars when she heard that U.S. Sen. John Cornyn was booed lustily at the Austin event because of his vote for the bank bailout. Even Perry drew what the American-Statesman called “scattered boos” from toll-road opponents, but his anti-Washington grandstanding cast him as a worthy leader of this jihad, a role he embraced after the rally when asked by a reporter about his reaction to the various pro-secession signage at the Austin rally. "There's a lot of different scenarios," Perry said. "We've got a great union. There's absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that. But Texas is a very unique place, and we're a pretty independent lot to boot." My standards for a good Texas governor have fallen a bit since Ann Richards, and I’d like to think that I’d demand a Texas governor who’s steadfast in defending the Union, but I’d settle for one who knows that you can’t modify “unique.” His understanding of Texas history was as ignorant as his command of basic grammar. He covered his secession statement by claiming that Texas’ constitution allows it to withdraw from the Union if it felt like it. Pesky constitutional scholars pointed out that Texas would instead be allowed to split up into five separate states, not secede from the United States, but by that time Rick Perry had done his damage. You win elections by looking around corners, and on April 15, 2009, Rick Perry saw that the unruly mobs assembling around the country could become a powerful constituency against Texas’ most popular politician, Hutchison, as well as the Democrats’ most popular leader, Obama. By grabbing the anti-Washington mantel for himself before everyone else realized what was going on, Perry assured himself of re-election against Bill White last Tuesday. Jason Stanford is a Democratic consultant and ran Democrat Chris Bell's 2006 campaign against Perry.

Political People and their Moves

House Speaker Joe Straus says he's got the votes for another term in that spot in spite of losses by more than a dozen of the Democrats who pledged to support him.Here's his press release, which came out after midnight.

Statement from Speaker Joe Straus: "On the night of this landmark election, Texas heard a resounding call from voters for continued fiscal responsibility and conservative leadership in Austin. I am proud that Republicans have gained a record number of seats in the Texas House, reversing the losing trend for the past three election cycles." "As Speaker, I congratulate every House candidate elected tonight, and I look forward to working with each member for the good of our state. I will continue to lead the Texas House in a fair and respectful way as Speaker, and at this early hour, I'm grateful to have 122 colleagues support me for Speaker, including 76 Republicans and 46 Democrats, and I look forward to visiting with more members in the coming days." Confirmed List of Pledges for Republican Texas House Speaker Joe Straus UPDATED: November 3, 2010 12:00 a.m. Aliseda, Jose Allen, Alma Alonzo, Roberto Alvarado, Carol Anchia, Rafael Anderson, Charles "Doc" Aycock, Jimmie Don Beck, Marva Bohac, Dwayne Bonnen, Dennis Branch, Dan Brown, Fred Burnam, Lon Button, Angie Chen Callegari, William "Bill" Carter, Stefani Castro, Joaquin Coleman, Garnet Cook, Byron Creighton, Brandon Crownover, Myra Darby, Drew Davis, John Deshotel, Joe Driver, Joe Dukes, Dawnna Dutton, Harold Eiland, Craig Eissler, Rob Elkins, Gary Farias, Joe Farrar, Jessica Fletcher, Allen Frullo, John Geren, Charlie Giddings, Helen Gonzales, Larry Gonzales, Veronica Gonzalez, Naomi Gooden, Lance Guillen, Ryan Gutierrez, Roland Hamilton, Mike Hancock, Kelly Hardcastle, Rick Harless, Patricia Harper-Brown, Linda Hartnett, Will Hernandez, Ana Hilderbran, Harvey Hochberg, Scott Hopson, Chuck Howard, Donna Huberty, Dan Hughes, Bryan Hunter, Todd Jackson, Jim Johnson, Eric Keffer, Jim King, Susan King, Tracy Kleinschmidt, Tim Kolkhorst, Lois Kuempel, Edmund Larson, Lyle Laubenberg, Jodie Lavender, George Legler, Ken Lewis, Tryon Lozano, J.M. Lucio III, Eddie Lyne, Lanham Madden, Jerry Mallory Caraway, Barbara Margo, Dee Marquez, Marisa Martinez, Armando McClendon, Ruth Jones Menendez, Jose Miles, Borris Miller, Doug Miller, Sid Munoz, Sergio, Jr. Murphy, Jim Naishtat, Elliott Oliveira, Rene Orr, Rob Otto, John Parker, Tan Patrick, Diane Paxton, Ken Pena, Aaron Phillips, Larry Pickett, Joe Pitts, Jim Price, Four Quintanilla, Chente Raymond, Richard Reynolds, Ron Riddle, Debbie Ritter, Allan Rodriguez, Eddie Schwertner, Charles Scott, Connie Sheffield, Ralph Shelton, Mark Smith, Todd Smith, Wayne Smithee, John Solomons, Burt Strama, Mark Straus, Joe Taylor, Larry Thompson, Senfronia Torres, Raul Truitt, Vicki Veasey, Marc Walle, Armando Weber, Randy Workman, Paul Zedler, Bill Zerwas, John *Partial Listing as of 12:00 a.m; 11/3/2010 Statements of Support for Speaker Joe Straus "Speaker Straus showed real leadership when he went to the appropriation committee hearing and said despite the budget challenges we will face next session, we will not increase taxes. I'm proud to support him for Speaker and believe his leadership will help us once again pass conservative, fiscally responsible legislation in the Texas House." - Representative Drew Darby "Speaker Straus and I are from different political parties and have different points of view, but I believe he respects all the Members and works to find common ground for the good of Texas. I support his re-election as Speaker." - Representative Senfronia Thompson "Speaker Straus earned the support of the vast majority of the Republican Caucus because he consulted with us, he worked to help us pass conservative legislation and he brought a constructive spirit to the Texas House." - Representative Harvey Hilderbran "Fiscal conservatives have a solid leader in Texas House Speaker Joe Straus. He is a true and responsible Republican steward of state government." - Representative Lois Kolkhorst "Joe Straus is a good friend. He is sensitive, fair and judicious with his treatment of all Texas House colleagues. He personifies what makes Texans proud of Texas." - Representative Aaron Peña "Speaker Straus' leadership has allowed the legislative process to work for the Texas and he has earned another term as Speaker." - Representative Rob Eissler "Joe Straus is a role model fiscal conservative. He knew that Texans were ready for a strong Republican majority and he personally worked to make it happen." - Representative Vicki Truitt "Speaker Straus is an exemplary conservative Texas leader. His integrity and commitment to leadership with civility is what separates the Texas Legislature from Washington styled politics." - Representative Jim Keffer "Members of the House felt we had the opportunity to have input and Speaker Straus had an open door. That's why I support his re-election as Speaker." - Representative Ryan Guillen "Speaker Straus made serving in the House fun again because all the Members felt they had a chance to contribute and represent the constituents who sent them to Austin." - Representative Edmund Kuempel "Speaker Straus is committed to jobs, economic growth, and fiscal responsibility and he works with Members to enact policies that are best for Texas." - Representative Byron Cook "I support Joe Straus for Speaker because he works constructively with all Members to make sure the Texas House does what is best for Texas." - Representative Allan Ritter "Leadership is an earned attribute. As my friend and colleague, Joe Straus has earned the post of Republican Texas House Speaker by achieving results for Texas and the Republican Party." -Representative Patricia Harless