Sen. Steve Ogden is still looking for 20 fellow senators willing to start the debate on the 2012-2013 state budget. It takes 21 to bring it up for consideration, and efforts to get that number together have fallen short for more than a week. Now, with less than a month left in the legislative session and the debate on redistricting on hold until after the budget has come to a vote, the pressure is on. So Ogden, the Bryan Republican who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, is looking for something that will break the gridlock. The problem, in a nutshell, is that some senators don't want to use the state's Rainy Day Fund, and the Finance panel's proposal uses around $3 billion from that account. Taking it out and cutting the budget loses votes from senators who think the proposed cuts are already deep enough, or in some cases, too deep. Leaving it in — even if senators were inclined to do so — defies the governor and the House, who have said by declaration and by vote that they don't want to get into the state's savings account. Ogden says it would gain Republican votes, and was asked if he could keep any Democrats in the fold with that plan. "Well, I haven't had any Democrat votes lately," he says. "I'm not losing any." Two Democrats — Sens. Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa of McAllen, and Royce West of Dallas — voted for the budget in committee. But Ogden says that was the extent of their promise; neither agreed to vote to bring it up for debate in the full Senate, he says. "We continue to work on finding 21 votes, and so every proposal has advantages and disadvantages and we just keep working until we find the combination," he says. "I told you last week, the issue is not the spending — it's the method of finance. So we're looking for a method of finance that 21 senators can support. There are different possibilities out there. It may be necessary to spend so much of the Rainy Day Fund but still finance this bill, so we're looking at that," he says. One idea is to take the Rainy Day money out of the budget. That leaves the plan about $3 billion out of balance. Cutting that much would lose votes, but there might be other ways to pay for the budget. Ogden said senators could include an across-the-board cut in state spending in the budget and allow the state comptroller to erase that spending cut if the money becomes available. The theory is that Comptroller Susan Combs is being overly conservative with her official estimate of state revenue — that the money is going to be available after all — and that lawmakers can rely on that money to bring spending up to the level they want. "I think the comptroller is wrong about her revenue estimate, and I think we can make contingency appropriations that have a high probability of being approved," Ogden says. "I was looking at her cash report and revenue estimate this weekend; she's predicting that oil prices will be 67 bucks in 2012," he says. "Well, I wouldn't take that bet and I don't know who else will. She's predicting oil prices are 70 bucks now. Well, they're not — they're $108… There are discussions going on about how we take advantage of that if the revenue estimate is too low." That across-the-board cut, he says, could be refined when the House and Senate reconcile their plans, perhaps turned into a list of specific programs that would get money as it becomes available instead of a general cut on all agencies. Some senators from both parties are worried about what will come back if they send the Senate proposal to a legislative committee to reconcile it with the much more stringent House version. "It's not the Senate budget or the House budget that will come back to us," said one Democrat. "It's the conference committee report, and we're afraid that will have cuts we can't support." They've suggested a special rule that would require a Senate super-majority for final approval of that negotiated budget. Under current rules, a simple majority could bless it; if they require two-thirds approval, that blessing would have to be bipartisan. "I don't think there's 16 votes to support that," Ogden says, "So it doesn't make any difference how I feel." Ogden and others counter-proposed that a letter be written stating the Senate's unwillingness to support a budget that goes below some specified size and getting signatures from enough senators to enforce it. With that in hand, they suggest, the Senate might get over its jitters. That idea has a mixed history; a similar pact on a school voucher bill several years ago fell apart when one of the signers changed his mind. They could replace Rainy Day money with more "non-tax revenue" from the stack of ideas they've already seen and declined to put into the budget. Ogden says he can't fund the proposed budget unless he gets that and other legislation out of the Senate. A bill that reforms public education — SB 22 — has to pass to make the budget works. And if it doesn't pass, he says, the Legislature ought to come back for special session this summer "or we're just kicking the can down the road." As a last resort, Ogden pointed to a provision already in the budget that instructs the comptroller on how to cut the budget if the money falls short and the Legislature isn't in town. It's an across-the-board cut, with exceptions for public education, higher education, pension plans for teachers and state employees, debt service, and compensation for crime victims. "I think for purposes of getting the bill out of here that we can rely on that," Ogden says. With all of that going on, the Finance Committee got a look at a supplemental appropriations bill that would spend just under $4 billion, including $3.3 billion from the Rainy Day Fund. That would cover the deficit in the current budget, which runs though the end of August. It includes money for public schools, for medical care in prisons and for unexpected expenses from wildfires this spring. A similar measure already passed the House. Asked about the coming deadlines and his chances, Ogden is still optimistic. "You know, I bet we get a bill out of here." When? "Before it's over."

Senate Finance Chairman Steve Ogden tried, and failed, to get 20 state senators to vote with him on a proposed state budget Tuesday. Today, he's going to see if he can find 15.The Bryan Republican is trying to get enough Senate support to pass a budget and, if he has his druthers, to put him in a strong negotiating position when the Senate and the House sit down to reconcile their budget differences later this month. If he can pull the votes together, he'll send a $176.5 billion blueprint to the House, which early approved a $164.5 billion plan, and the budgeteers from the two chambers can try to reconcile their differences. The current budget, at $187.5 billion, is bigger than either proposal, and the amount requested by the various state agencies that were trying to keep current programs in place with additions for population growth and inflation was bigger still. Ogden's success hinges on Senate rules and traditions. Under the rules, they consider bills in the order they come in. Going out of order requires a two-thirds vote, and there is usually a "blocker bill" so that such a vote will be required. But on two days each week, House bills come before Senate bills. Wednesday is a House day, and the budget this year is a House bill, so there will be no hurdle to jump and Ogden can pass his bill with a simple majority. Although that's well within the rules, it's customarily not the way things are done in the tradition-bound Senate. Ogden would rather have two-thirds, as would Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, for the simple reason that a bill passed by a unified Senate puts negotiators in a stronger position than one passed by a Senate split — as this one was last night — along partisan lines. Senators voted 19-12 on straight party lines to consider the budget — a failure on a day when two-thirds were required. Ogden wouldn't say outright that he's angling for a simple vote, saying he only had 12 votes as of last week, 19 today, and hopes to have more than 21 when it finally comes to a vote. But time is relatively short with the legislative session ending on Memorial Day and if they can't get two-thirds, they'll vote anyway. "At the end of the day, I will pass a budget," Dewhurst said. "Whether I'm standing on my head or I'm standing up straight, I will get a budget passed out of here." Getting the budget out of the Senate is only an intermediate step in the budget process. Once approved there, it'll go to the House, which already passed a much different proposal. They'll likely turn it down and send it to a conference committee set up to reconcile the differences. That committee's work has to get approval from both the House and Senate before the end of the legislative session. Gov. Rick Perry will then have almost three weeks to sign it, veto it, veto parts of it, or let it become law without his signature. It is, by all accounts, a year when the question is not whether there will be cuts, but how deep they should be. Perry and the House have been stingier than the Senate, especially when it comes to the state's $9.2 billion Rainy Day Fund. They've been willing to use it for the current deficit; the House approved a $3 billion draw on the fund for the current budget. But they don't want it used to balance the 2012-13 budget. The proposal from the Senate Finance Committee used another $3 billion from the fund as a guarantee of sorts in case state revenue falls short of what the comptroller predicts. The full Senate balked, so Ogden promised to remove that provision and replace it with a mix of deferred payments and spending that will only take place when the money for it actually appears in the state treasury. That lost what little Democratic support he had. And it's not the most daunting challenge. Senators on both sides of the party line say the House's budget is inadequate, particularly in public and higher education, nursing homes, and some other areas. More than half of the difference in the plans, according to Ogden, can be attributed to the additional money the Senate wants to spend on public schools. The Senate's biggest battle lies ahead, when negotiators meet to reconcile their differences. If Ogden and his crew come back with something that looks like the House budget, they'll have a hard sell in the Senate. "We didn't come this far to give it away next week," he said of the coming talks. Still to be seen: How something like the Senate budget would fare in the House. There is already some grumbling in the lower chamber about how the Senate paid for its budget; taking the Rainy Day money out will help, but it's not the end of that conversation. The immediate issue is in the Senate and whether it will pass a budget and what that will contain. The party-line vote could change overnight. For one thing, the Democrats know that it's hard to get on the budget conference committee if you vote against the bill. And Ogden and the budgeteers would rather have a big bipartisan majority when they face the House, so they're still working and trying to find a way to get more senators behind the plan. "This is a good budget for the state of Texas," Ogden said, "And I'm going to find a way to get it out of here."

It's May of an odd-numbered year, so we asked the insiders whether the big stuff will get finished during regulation time or whether there will be special sessions this summer, and about what issues won't get resolved. The insiders tilt, slightly, toward a special session, with 51 percent saying lawmakers won't finish work on the budget by Memorial Day (when the session ends) and 47 percent saying they will. The Texas House has already voted out its redistricting map and sent it to the Senate, and the State Board of Education maps have already been approved by both houses and sent to the governor. The Senate didn't start (in public) on its own map until after the budget was out. Even so, 69 percent of the insiders think senators will vote out a map before the end of the month. Congressional redistricting is also coming in late, and the insiders are less optimistic here: 43 percent say the Legislature will produce new congressional maps, and 45 percent say they won't. A copy of the full answers can be found here; a sampling follows:

Will the House and Senate agree on a budget or will that issue force one or more special sessions this summer? • "Neither House nor Senate want to start the process all over again in the summer." • "How can they agree on how much to spend when they don't even agree on how much we have in the bank to spend?" • "They will get out of their jam by deferring over six billion into the next biennium, allowing the House to add only a few billion to their version and the Senate to say they are betting on the rebounding economy (or the Economic Stabilization Fund) to bail them out of having to implement severe cuts to public education and health and human services in 2013. Either way, I think they should halt their pursuit of a federal balanced budget resolution. Makes them look just a little hypocritical to be pointing their fingers while playing with their own balance sheet." • "They'll agree, but without a single Democratic vote in either the House or the Senate. There will be no question who owns the budget - Republicans." • "I thought they might finish on time. I still think there's a chance, but it is shrinking by the day. The gap is just too large." • "The House and Senate may well see a draft conference committee report, perhaps an actual conference committee report, and they may even adopt a conference committee report. However, they will not agree on a school finance bill--a necessary accompaniment--leading us into one or more special sessions this summer."

Will the Senate vote out a redistricting map? • "Easiest redistricting job of the whole bunch: just one big incumbent protection racket." • "They have about 17 days to pass it out of the Senate, but the House will hold it hostage until the Senate conferees agree to more cuts in the budget." • "The Dems will block with the Senate's two-thirds rule." • "They don't want 4 or 5 people who have higher offices in mind drawing their future" • "Although the Democrats would be better off with a Senate drawn map than one crafted by the LRB, it would seem they stick together. That along with a handful of unhappy Republicans will make it difficult to pass a map."

Will the House and Senate agree on a congressional redistricting map? • "Not enough time. Three federal judges will get to decide how much work political consultants get for the next decade." • "They don't want a court to do it. If they think they'll be in special on the budget anyway, they might not rush it." • "Where is Tom DeLay when we need him?" • "Sure--but maybe not during the regular session." • "It will be difficult for the Senate to get a map voted out. If this one goes to special session, however, they do have a chance of getting it done." What issues are most likely to be left unfinished at the end of the session? • "Redistricting." • "SUNSET" • "Transportation, corporate practice of medicine" • "Budget, Senate & House Redistricting" • "How to fix the structural deficit, how to pay for highways, how to pay for water, how to pay for the last three months of the two-year state budget." • "Congressional redistricting, any semblance of business tax reform, funding for the state water plan and probably at least one sunset bill will run out of gas." • "Budget, redistricting and one or two other 'urgent' items like meddling with women's reproductive rights. 3 specials total - all summer." • "The state's structural deficit and the related failure to implement a sustainable and stable revenue stream for K-12 education." • "Health, education and many others, if your question goes to leadership. If it is only a question of crossing the t's and dotting i's, it will all get taken care of." • "EVERYTHING. Despite a super-majority, the Republicans can't agree to pass anything because they are too spooked by the hard right. This will/should be known as the do-nothing legislature." • "Are you kidding? They'll finish!" • "I bet it will be gambling." • "Guns on Campus" • "TWIA funding reform. TDI and other agencies' sunset review."