What once looked like a frolic for a political junkie in Texas -- a year with contested statewide races all up and down the ballot with stars running for governor and U.S. Senate and on and on -- now looks more like a quiet night at home. The Guv's race will be noisy in March and probably again in November, but all else is pretty quiet in the top spots on the ballot. Redistricting has taken the juice out of all but a handful of congressional and state Senate elections. Only the Texas House -- which still has a few swing districts and where primaries could be roiled by messy school finance and tax issues -- appears to offer much for the politically minded observer. And in many instances, that's more subtle than the usual R v. D set-up. Texas is in a period when the most interesting competition of ideas and candidates comes in the March primaries -- particularly on the Republican side.
Only two members of the Texas congressional delegation won with less than 55 percent of the general election vote in 2004: Chet Edwards, D-Waco, who got 51.2 percent, and Pete Sessions, R-Dallas, who came in at 54.3 percent. Edwards, in CD-17, is on most lists of incumbents on thin ice in 2006; at least two Republicans are battling for the nomination to take him on, and there'll be national money on both sides in that contest. One resident of the district, when he's not in the White House, is George W. Bush.
Several members of Congress got there after tough primaries. For the most part, those were creatures of redistricting rather than continuing competitive districts. But Democrat Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, has both a rematch opponent and a newcomer in former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, and state Rep. Richard Raymond, D-Laredo. It went to a recount in 2004, and it's a real contest next year.
The closest race for the Texas Senate two years ago had a 17-point spread between the Republican and the Democrat, and the only close race was in a Democratic primary won by the incumbent, Mario Gallegos, D-Houston, with 53.9 percent. None of those districts is likely to flip from one party to the other. But senators serve four-year terms. You have to look at the 2002 elections to see what's going on in districts held by senators up in 2006. If you're looking for fights, that's not much more encouraging.
In 2002, three senators got less than 55 percent of the vote in the general election: Bob Deuell, R-Greenville, who was knocking off an incumbent Democrat, David Cain of Dallas; Gonzalo Barrientos, D-Austin, fending off a well-financed Republican challenger who got some mileage out of a DWI charge against the incumbent; and Ken Armbrister, D-Victoria, who got 53.3 percent of the vote in a district that votes for Republicans in most other races on the ballot. Barrientos isn't seeking reelection next year, and Democrat Kirk Watson, a former Austin mayor and current Chamber of Commerce honcho, is the preemptive favorite to replace him right now.
Armbrister hasn't said for sure whether he'll run for reelection next year. There's been a new rumor every week about it -- that he'll run, that he'll quit and lobby, that he'll go work for Gov. Rick Perry as liaison to the Lege -- and his aides give cloudy answers when asked about his future. Their boss has scheduled a fundraiser for next month but has been slow to send out invitations. And they say he'll make his announcement one way or the other in his own time, probably when filing for office begins next month. Republicans, meanwhile, are lining up to see if they can do better against him than Lester Phipps, who got 45 percent in 2002.
In the 2002 primaries, Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa, D-McAllen, went through a tight primary and then a runoff to get to his first term in the upper chamber. And Republican Tommy Williams also survived with less than 55 percent in the GOP primary. Those races probably contain no omens, though; both men were House members running for Senate seats that had been redrawn in redistricting, and neither faced an incumbent (though Williams' opponent was Michael Galloway, a former state senator).
In the 2002 primaries the only senator who had a real race had a real race: Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio, staved off a challenge from Rep. John Shields. Wentworth kept the seat in a relatively easy general election, but escaped the primary with a 1,216 vote margin, out of 51,246 votes cast.
Boil that down to present tense: There are, at this juncture, three tough race in the Texas congressional delegation, and one in the Texas Senate. Edwards occupies a target area for both national parties. He'll be alone in March while at least two Republicans battle for their nomination, but it'll be an important contest in November. Cuellar's CD-28 has to be considered an open race, at least in March. Another race depends on how the ball bounces. U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, got just over 55 percent in 2004; he'll face former U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson in the general election, but that race has more to do with national politics and courthouse troubles than with district lines; it's Republican turf under most circumstances. In the state Senate, Armbrister generally votes with the GOP, but some in that party want to put a Republican in office in SD-18. If he runs, he'll have a race. And the Republicans will have a contest in March, either way.
To the extent there's much action on the ballot next year, it will be in House races. And because of redistricting and its tendency to give comfort to incumbents of both parties, much of the fun stuff will happen in March rather than in November.
Four Democrats in the House got there after primary runoffs in 2004. Three -- Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles of Alice Veronica Gonzales of McAllen and Abel Herrero of Corpus Christi -- beat incumbents (Herrero in the first round, the others in the runoff). David McQuade Leibowitz of San Antonio won his runoff after surviving a crowded primary election, and beat the incumbent Republican in the general election. None of the four got less than 55 percent in their runoff. Rob Orr, R-Burleson, won a runoff against an imploding opponent (Sam Walls led the first round, but his campaign died when pictures of him in women's clothing went public). Orr was the only Republican House member who got there by way of a runoff in 2004.
Several members got into the House with less than comfortable margins and could be potential targets next year. Charles "Doc" Anderson, R-Waco, got 50.4 percent in the GOP primary and then got 53.2 percent in the general election. He'll have a primary opponent, and the Democrats see a chance in that district. No other Republican got less than 55 percent in the primary.
Armando "Mando" Martinez, D-Weslaco, beat an incumbent in the primary, getting 53 percent of the vote. Marc Veasey, D-Fort Worth, beat an incumbent, with 54.2 percent. Alma Allen, D-Houston, beat an incumbent with 55.4 percent.
In the general election, Stephen Frost, D-Atlanta, got in with 52.8 percent. Mark Homer, D-Paris, got 50.2 percent. Chuck Hopson, D-Jacksonville, got 52.7 percent. Jim McReynolds, D-Lufkin, got 51 percent. Robby Cook, D-Eagle Lake, decided to run for reelection after announcing he wouldn't and considering a party change; he ended up with 53.66 percent. John Otto, R-Dayton, had 54.5 percent. Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton, R-Mauriceville, had 55.4 percent. Herrero, after that primary runoff, got 55 percent in the general. Gonzalez Toureilles got out of the general with 50.9 percent. Patrick Rose, D-Dripping Springs, had 54.5 percent. Todd Baxter, R-Austin (he resigned his seat to become a cable lobbyist and won't be on the ballot next year) had 50.1 percent. Anderson's general election win was 53.2 percent. David Farabee, D-Wichita Falls, got 53 percent. Tony Goolsby, R-Dallas, got 53.1 percent. Ray Allen, R-Grand Prairie, got out with 52.5 percent; he's not running for reelection next year. Leibowitz won his general election with 50.6 percent of the vote. Martha Wong, R-Houston, had 53.5 percent. And Hubert Vo, D-Houston, got 50 percent and won by less than three dozen votes.
If you were trying to put together a map of next year's races, there are two ways to look at those past results. If a name has a D next to it and a narrow margin in 2004, put that on the target list for Republicans. Flip the letter and the party affiliation, and that's the Democrats' first list. Now, look at it from the perspective of the party leaders on either side. If one of your reps didn't look so hot in 2004 and if you really need the seat, find them a primary opponent or talk them off the ballot. And if one of the reps on your side voted with your enemies, add them to the target list.
One more factor -- education -- will make ten to twenty races interesting next year. School superintendents and current and former school board members are signing up in a bunch of races. Some of that's normal -- the pool of new low-level state candidates comes from school boards, city councils, county commissions and the like -- but part of it is a reaction to the proposed solutions to school finance in the regular and special sessions earlier this year. Educators and other community leader types are also popping up in districts where the school finance votes that made sense in Austin don't look as good at home. Some rural members, for instance, are getting questioned about voting against bigger homestead exemptions that would have benefited the folks back home. And some members are getting peppered at home for not going along with state leaders who were trying to find a solution.
If all that amounts to anything, it could have a real influence on school finance. The Legislature that survives these elections could take up the issue in the next regular session, in January 2007. And if there's a special session on school finance next spring, the results of the primary elections will be fresh on everyone's minds.