The race for HD-96 has Democrats almost ready to pull out the confetti and streamers for their candidate, Chris Turner. But the Republicans are confident that early voter turnout for incumbent Bill Zedler, R-Arlington, is giving Turner a run for his money.
"We're very confident, and I'm not just saying that," says Craig Murphy, Zedler's consultant. (Murphy says he recommended Zedler spend his time at the polls, not talking to the press, so we haven't heard back from the candidate.) "He's [Turner] on all the Democratic target lists, but if this is the quality of the Democratic target lists, they've got big problems this year."
Zedler was first elected in 2002. His last few Democratic challengers weren't well funded. Even so, Zedler won with only 52 percent of the vote to Democrat Chris Youngblood's 44 percent in 2006. This year, primary turnout for the Democrats in the district was more than double that of the Republicans. Based on those numbers, Democrats are opening their wallets for Turner. He's a first-time candidate, but isn't new to politics: Turner worked for former U.S. Rep. Martin Frost's staff and then went to work for U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Waco as a campaign manager and district director.
Zedler's people think Turner's all hype.
"The biggest problem for Turner is that it's a Republican district, and he's a former political consultant," Murphy says. "That's not really the background people are looking for. They want someone who has had a real job — a doctor or a teacher or a businessperson."
"I was able to work on the government side on a number of issues," says Turner of his work with Edwards. "The experience of having been involved in his office has been nothing but positive in my race."
Democratic consultant Matt Angle says he wouldn't call Turner a consultant, because he was a member of Edwards' staff (That's a fine line: The Turner Group, a political consultancy, is paid $7,000 a month by the Texas Democratic Trust, run by Angle. Lisa Turner, the principal, is the candidate's wife). Angle says he's known quite a few candidates that worked on campaigns before running for office.
"It depends on the individual," Angle says. "If you're a good candidate, that experience can be pretty valuable."
It hasn't hurt the bank. Turner raised $240,166 from January to the end of June, and $195,046 from July to the end of September. He had about $184,464 in cash at the end of September. Zedler raised $83,790 from January to June, and then $125,509 from July to Sept. He reported $134,160 cash on hand.
Turner has the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's support (they dont endorse, they recommend). And until we brought it their attention Tuesday, Zedler was claiming on his website that the paper is with him. He had it in 06, and for this years primary. But he doesn't now, and he pulled down the reference.
Both candidates are talking about primary election turnout.
The Turner campaign has capitalized on record turnout in the primary. Democrats in HD-96 outnumbered Republicans about 2.5 to 1.
Murphy says Turner has "made a career" out of using those numbers, and he thinks it's worthless now because it only reflected the tension within the Democratic Party over the presidential candidates.
"That doesn't change the dynamics of the district," Murphy says. "He [Turner] would have had more success running in the last election, when Republican turnout was sort of depressed," says.
There's no way to know party breakdown of early voting, but the Republicans in Tarrant County seem to be confident. Murphy believes only about a third of the people who showed up for the first day of early voting were Democrats.
"We get a list everyday of who has voted, and where they voted," says Stephanie Klick, chair of the Tarrant County GOP, "and we're encouraged."
But Turner says the dynamics of the district are in his favor. Like other suburban sprawls in the state, parts of Tarrant County are filled with new subdivisions of lower-cost housing, bringing younger and more racially diverse families, which Turner says makes for a more competitive district.
The candidates have faced off in two forums, and taxes were the subject both emphasized. Turner says Zedler wants to increase the sales tax to 13 percent and use the money to replace property taxes.
"That's why Turner's losing this race," says Murphy, who contends a Democrat could never win a political debate about taxes.
Zedler's campaign has been all over Turner on taxes and is trying to link him with presidential candidate Barack Obama in mail pieces. One says Turner supports Obama's plan to increase taxes, because "Turner's boss, Democrat Chet Edwards, was considered a Vice Presidential Pick for Barak Obama." Angle calls Zedler campaign mailers "blatantly false" and "clumsily cited."
"This is one of the Democrats best opportunities to win," says Angle, "and Zedler is in a full-blown panic. He's done nothing but put out attack pieces. "
Murphy says Zedler's got no reason to panic: "This is a year that Republicans are going to come out and vote."
by Karie Meltzer